Essay by Eric Worrall
Only the most committed green states are closing coal plants.
Souring renewables investment outlook extends life of coal generators
Leith van Onselen
Monday 17 August 2026Investors in renewables say confidence in the Australian energy market is declining.
A national investor survey by the Clean Energy Investor Group (~140 respondents) found that 77% of respondents believe Australia’s clean energy investment landscape has deteriorated over the past 12 months:
Transmission bottlenecks are the number one concern, followed by planning approval delays, grid connection issues and negative pricing:
…
Coal plants to remain operational for longer:
According to the latest version of AEMO’s flagship report, the 2026 ISP released in June, over 5 GW of coal is scheduled to close in 2029.
By 2035, Australia is scheduled to have lost around 15 GW of coal capacity, almost all from Victoria and NSW.
…
Not surprisingly, the media reported last week that the NSW government is actively examining extending the life of the state’s coal-fired generators
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Read more: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/08/souring-investment-outlook-for-renewables-extends-life-of-coal-generators/
Why are renewable operators experiencing negative pricing? Because despite the hundreds of billions spent on renewables, there is still no viable means of time shifting renewable output to when people actually need the energy. Solar and to a surprising extent wind output peak around midday, then decline towards night time, when demand for home heating kicks in.
So by the time the generated electricity is worth anything, the day is over for renewable operators.
Various pumped hydro schemes and batteries are supposed to make a difference, but they’re not working. Batteries are way too expensive to provide meaningful capacity. And pumped hydro has turned out to be ruinously inefficient and way more expensive than anticipated, thanks to geological challenges of drilling long tunnels through unstable mountain terrain.
The federal government is trying to rescue their collapsing net zero programme by forcing AI companies to build enough green infrastructure for themselves and everyone else, but a state led rebellion against AI green mandates has thrown this coercion plan into turmoil.
On top of all this, a heavy handed attempt by the Federal Government to deflate Australia’s housing bubble has threatened to tip the entire economy into a Chinese style housing crisis led recession. Part of this deflation measure, punitive capital gains taxes which treat capital gains as equivalent to wage income, have wrecked the economics of risk taking investment in Australia.
The final straw which broke renewable investment in Australia, the anti Net Zero rebel party One Nation is riding high in every opinion poll. Senior One Nation Federal Senator Malcolm Roberts, whom I’ve met and spoken to in person, absolutely hates renewables – he has spent a large part of his career attacking renewables and renewable subsidies.
Unfortunately the government has shown no sign of backing off their train wreck economic policies – they’re blaming everyone but themselves for Australia’s cluster crisis.
Let’s hope there is still something left to save by the time Australia gets its chance to pass judgement on this government’s performance.
Update (EW): Added an extra paragraph to the quote, about the NSW government considering extending coal plants.
“a heavy handed attempt by the Federal Government to deflate Australia’s housing bubble has threatened to tip the entire economy into a Chinese style housing crisis led recession”
I watched a “journalist” ask Trump recently what he’s going to do to bring down housing prices. He said, and I’m paraphrasing, “we don’t want prices to go down hurting those who own homes- better to bring down interest costs- that will benefit those trying to buy a home”. Sounds like a good idea to me.
Lowering interest rates while not reducing spending? It’s called inflation, a really really bad idea that Trump (and others) obviously loves.
Can’t fix stupid, sorry to say it that way.
There isn’t necessarily a direct correlation between interest rates and inflation- a many factors effect inflation. But certainly spending should be cut, especially for green energy.
I have heard the generation that might be interested in buying a house thinks that “sports gambling” is a sound investment strategy. I’m not into sports or gambling so I’m not informed about this. Also, I already own a house so I approve of The Donald’s comment.
Russian roulette is gambling; pissing your money down a rathole is not…there’s a reason the Mob went to Vegas, and it wasn’t for the climate. I’ve never understood gambling as a strategy; it just brings heartache and bad characters to the community…tanstaffl.
I’ve never gambled a cent in my 76 years but if others like that habit, please go for it.
Ditto-but serious gamblers can still stay the Hell away from my community-casinos and such only bring the bad news hangers on.
Don’t forget getting rid of the illegals that are occupying homes will add existing inventory.
“The federal government is trying to rescue their collapsing net zero programme by forcing AI companies to build enough green infrastructure for themselves and everyone else”
And what’s been the response of the AI companies to that? Not good I bet. 🙂
CoPilot said
“Our response? ‘Great idea! We’ll build the data centres, the solar farms, the wind farms, the batteries… and while we’re at it, would you like us to solve nuclear fusion by Friday too?’ 🤖😄“
Reality keeps biting them in the arse. AGW is just too big a pill for the people to swallow.
I don’t think you’re meant to swallow it.
It’s more like a suppository, and even then it’s too big.
Speak for yourself says Don Lemon.
Wait. People actually think Retardables are good investments?
Ba-hahahahahahahahahaha!
Leftards do, but of course they want to do the investment with your money by taxing you against your will….you know, for the greater good blahblah.
When a government is guaranteeing you a profit they are, but when they have to deal with reality, well………………………………………….
Whoda thunk?
Aussie Coal Plants to Stay Operational
That reminds me of Men at Work…
I come from a land down under
Where beer does flow and men chunder
Can’t you hear, can’t you hear the thunder
You better run, you better take cover.”
Only the most in need of being committed are still closing coal plants.
Doing the same thing over and over, no matter the outcome; the most succinct definition of insanity. The Meteorological Marxists, like the rest of their co-religionists, keep trying to fix what isn’t broken; throwing out what works well to bring about their imagined perfect Utopia!
Pretty much.
What Australia ought to be doing is just drop the idiotic environment destroying renewables scam, and build at least one big new modern coal fired power station in each eastern state.
It’s worse than that, the fleet is aging and a single replacement unit in each eastern state would be just a bandaid over the gaping wound.
The fix is, (as stated by bnice2000), PLUS a repeat every five years. Anything less is just a pause in the race to candles.
Amen. Coal plants require continuing component replacements to maintain reliability. If they are going to be shutdown, it makes no sense to spend that money. So you can keep them running with temporary fixes, but they will eventually shutdown. That deficit has to be made up with major component replacements. I’ve seen it happen.
Wind and solar can’t sustain the grid everybody knows that. Australia is a perfect example of why government should not be in the energy production or transmission business. Everyone can see their policies aren’t working and aren’t going to work and what do they do? Double down. No private outfit could get away with this craziness.
“Aussie Coal Plants to Stay Operational”
Heavy spin there. Here is the underlying AEMO graph. Coal plants are closing everywhere, even in Qld:
Coal is falling off a cliff
Good post Nick.
You’ve just graphically demonstrated to all why Aussie heavy industry is collapsing since the “pisspoor power” boondoggle of wind & solar began, and industry will keep collapsing until nothing remains if the pisspoor power boondoggle is continued for the next couple of decades.
The article is about this plan not working Nick. And Queensland has already expressed frustration with having to bail southern states out of their renewable stupidity, if it gets much worse they’ll cut the interconnector.
It isn’t a plan – it is a prediction:
“According to the latest version of AEMO’s flagship report…”
And it is the prediction that van O is relying on. He actually shows this graph.
“He actually shows this graph.”
Which shows just how incredibly gullible and dumb he really is !!
He is the source that Eric quotes and relies on.
ps… by citing VO, Eric does a great job of showing just how dumb and gullible VO is. Ridicule is always a good response.
Fact-free ridicule is never a good response. vO at least had a factual report to refer to, and Eric was trying to follow that. Without vO he has nothing.
VO has always provided a rich target for ridicule. !
“And it is the prediction that van O is relying on. He actually shows this graph.”
A prediction is not a factual report.
Mr. Stokes: Doesn’t it strike you that the “prediction” graph is absurd, drawn by someone who is rooting for coal’s demise? Coal use looks pretty steady in real years, then “predictions” in future years is where the “cliff” happens. What does van O predict will replace all that coal in 2028 and 2029? Renewables?
The graph you show is a joke, but very unfunny for electric users.
“drawn by someone who is rooting for coal’s demise”
It is drawn by the AEMO. It is shown by van Oselen, under the heading
“Souring renewables investment outlook extends life of coal generators“. van O is Eric’s source here.
So Paul was correct. 🙂
Mr. Stokes: So you concede the AEMO is rooting for coal’s demise? You didn’t say, but it can be inferred, right? Your first comment says van O is spinning hard, but now he’s the “source” for the author. The author’s point seems to be that folks (including van O) are waking up to the “cliff” you are driving off, taking Aussies with you, and desperate folks will turn to coal in spite of the AEMO “prediction”.
BTW, does the E in AEMO short for energy? Maybe you should ask the AEMO about it’s absurd chart, don’t you care what will replace all that coal in ’28? Evidently not.
“The author’s point seems to be that folks (including van O) are waking up to the “cliff” you are driving off”
No. The author’s spin is in the title:
“Aussie Coal Plants to Stay Operational”And that amplifies van O’s spin, based on the latest AEMO ISP report. So this discussion goes in the usual way here. I point out what the AEMO actually said. So then the AEMO gets bblasted, then van O. But no alternative analysis. So what about the original post? Well, never mind.
“ Maybe you should ask the AEMO about it’s absurd chart, don’t you care what will replace all that coal in ’28?”
No need. I can just read the report.
Mr. Stokes: And that last chart can be the last word, or shall I say the last spin.
Nick, the paragraph next to that diagram reads:
Like I said, the article is about the plan to decarbonise the Aussie economy not working.
I don’t think Nick has woken up to the fact that you are ridiculing the whole “plan” by citing VO’s article. 🙂
Eric,
That para is opinion writing by van O. His only factual source is the latest ISP of the AEMO, and that is the graph they supplied, which he showed. The AEMO preceded the forecast graph with this para:
“Coal plants may retire even faster than these forecasts, including in Queensland. The financial viability of some is increasingly challenged by higher fuel and operating costs, reduced fuel security, high maintenance costs and greater competition from renewable energy in the wholesale market. Some coal generators may operate only during peak seasons – remaining active in summer and winter while shutting down during the shoulder periods.”
Read a little further Nick:
Ooh. All those “mays”. It may rain in December where I live, but not much chance of it
Forecasts, like other predictions, are founded on opinions.
Being pushed is not falling.
It isn’t “stay operational”.
Coal will need to “stay operational” for a long time, if Australians want 24/7 electricity. !
Or be replaced with gas.
Expansion of the Coal power-station fleet is a better option because it can be implemented where current distribution infrastructure and coal resources are.
Deflection.
Your words: “Coal is falling off a cliff”
MarkH’s words: “Being pushed is not falling.”
You deflect to: It isn’t “stay operational”.
No deflection. The words are in the title here. Now long forgotten as the storyline changes.
Wow, great graphic of the total collapse of the Australian economy !
Let’s hope that One Nation gets a bigger say in renewing the Australian economy by providing clean, reliable electricity, from COAL and GAS power stations.
Let’s save the Australian economy and environment by putting a complete halt to any more erratic, intermittent and unreliable electricity sources.
Coal most certainly is not falling off a cliff.
Coal is being pushed over the precipice.
The transmission and grid connection bottlenecks seem to be a major part of the problem. If renewable capacity can’t be integrated quickly enough, keeping existing generation available during the transition seems difficult to avoid. Fence supply
Renewables can never be reliably integrated into an electricity grid.
Their intermittent and erratic nature, and the fact that they need 100% back-up from dispatchable sources, destroys the reliability of the grid and causes a large increase in costs to the consumers..
I had a flick through the ISP yesterday and found that they are proposing to increase the gas to 17 GW. The average power draw is 24 GW. In a dunkelflaute we’d get 2 GW from Snowy 2.0, and 1 GW from Tasmania, so the renewable+storage would have to supply 4 GW for the duration of the dunkelflaute, which is typically 96 hours long. By then we’ll have a 100% renewable grid, so will need at least 72 GW of wind and solar. There’s a tradeoff between batteries (up to 4*96 GWh) and overbuilding that 72 GW to account for the very low output during the dunkelflaute.
Not only are COAL fired power stations providing absolutely essential CO2 to the atmosphere…
… it seems that they also provide much needed Nitrogen in a form that soils can absorb, and thus , plants can use.
Climate Alarmists Go Silent: Turns Out Fossil Fuels Are Earth’s ‘Miracle-Gro’ – Climate Change Dispatch
It’s the old story all over again: on a large-scales basis renewables like wind and solar just aren’t up to the task, and the sooner they’re abandoned and replaced by fossil fuels, the better.
The cluster **** is the current government.