Heatwaves and Excess Deaths–The Facts

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Further to the Guardian’s absurd claim that “last week’s heatwave killed 600 people”, it is worth going back to the ONS analysis carried out after the 2022 heatwaves:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessmortalityduringheatperiods/englandandwales1juneto31august2022

In short, deaths spiked during the hot days, but quickly fell back below average. Over the period as a whole, the number of deaths was no higher than  normal.

People may have died a few days earlier than they would otherwise. But the heat did not kill them at all – they were dying anyway, and the heat was no more than a trigger, just as a bit of cold or wet weather could have been.

Because the ONS study was carried out before all summer deaths had been registered, they included this table:

Although the number of deaths in 2022 appears to be slightly higher than usual, what is noticeable is that the hot summer of 2018 recorded one of the lowest totals of the decade. In contrast, 2016, a much cooler summer, recorded the highest number of deaths until 2021.

Clearly then, there is no correlation between heat and increased deaths.

We need, of course, to be wary of comparing post pandemic death rates with those before – we do know that there were large numbers of excess deaths throughout 2022, for reasons never explained.

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observa
June 24, 2025 2:46 am

News flash: Brits die of shock when the sun appears!

Nanny staters are working feverishly on the problem-
UK scientists are about to attempt to dim the Sun | The Independent

strativarius
Reply to  observa
June 24, 2025 3:31 am

Wasted effort…

Warning as Vladimir Putin could attack Britain – by blocking out the SUN
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/warning-vladimir-putin-could-attack-35401739

And he doesn’t mean the newspaper.

Reply to  strativarius
June 24, 2025 9:36 am

More’s the pity.

Reply to  strativarius
June 24, 2025 10:17 am

Weren’t the Brits planning on blocking the sun themselves?

Reply to  strativarius
June 24, 2025 10:27 am

Would any of us notice?

(apart from the usual suspects who’d blame it on CO2)

Reply to  observa
June 24, 2025 5:06 am

Aren’t the Brits also warning about a Russian plot to block the sun? If so, wouldn’t it save a tremendous amount of funds if the UK just let Putin do it?.

strativarius
Reply to  observa
June 24, 2025 6:03 am

Brits die of shock when the sun appears!”

And yet not many generations ago it was a case of: “Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday Sun“.

Reply to  strativarius
June 24, 2025 11:35 am

Then they never should have gone to India. Of course there they had the natives to wave palm fronds over them to cool them off.

Reply to  observa
June 24, 2025 6:22 am

Every year millions of Brits go to Spain Portugal Greece Turkey and Canary Islands and come back alive despite them being much warmer than the Uk . In the US northern states can get quite hot during summer , my uncles lived in Cleveland and it was hot in the summer . I don’t know how they survive in Texas 🙂 . A few years back I was flying from Gran Canaria to UK , the lady sat beside me was from Gran Canaria and had never been aboard , as we came into land over the New Forest she was amazed at how green it was . We got of the plane and she was hit by a Northerly wind at 13C , it was June and she instantly felt cold .

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Northern Bear
June 24, 2025 10:54 am

In Hawaii, 75F, the locals were wearing winter parkas.
We adapt.

Reply to  Northern Bear
June 24, 2025 11:36 am

“In the US northern states can get quite hot during summer”

100F yesterday, today and tomorrow here in north central Wokeachusetts

good thing I’m Italian American- as I quickly become golden brown

AWG
Reply to  Northern Bear
June 24, 2025 4:43 pm

. I don’t know how they survive in Texas 🙂 

We all died a long time ago because the temperatures were above the UK’s.

June 24, 2025 3:26 am

As is customary for the climate cult, another fine example of “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.”

strativarius
June 24, 2025 3:29 am

Sorry, these days data has been rendered untrustworthy; clearly it’s in the wrong hands…

Investigation launched into UK’s statistics agency
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxgrjj0njxo

Lies, damned lies, and statistics: what’s gone wrong at the ONS?
https://theweek.com/politics/whats-gone-wrong-at-the-ons-data-economic-activity

The exact same question could be asked of all British scientific and medical institutions.

Mortality statistics on deaths registered by age, sex and underlying cause of deaths, including data and analysis on deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19).”
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath

Like the man who was killed in a motorcycle accident and actually died of covid…

strativarius
June 24, 2025 5:19 am

O/T:

Hypocrisy is a word that is now ubiquitous where the climate concerned are… concerned.

Recently we learned that the popular Bournemouth Air Festival was being cut…

There was fury this weekend as Bournemouth Council announced it was scrapping the beloved four-day Bournemouth Air Festival – a 16-year fixture that pulls in 600,000 fans and showcases the Red Arrows. The ‘cash-strapped’ council bleated it couldn’t stomach the £250,000 price tag. Carbon emissions from the planes and extra traffic were also trotted out as handy excuses to ground the spectacle…

Yet the LibDem leader of Bournemouth Council, Millie Earl, didn’t bat an eye about splashing council cash jetting off to MIPIM – a swanky, four-day real estate conference in sunny Cannes – held every March at the Palais des Festivals. An FOI request reveals her return flight from Gatwick to Nice cost the taxpayer a tidy £578. Earle even took to the stage to lecture on her “environmental campaigning” at the notoriously raucous gathering…

Elliot Keck of the TaxPayers’ Alliance said:

“Clearly this council leader operates on a do as I say, not do as I do policy, given she’s more than happy to jet off to the French Riviera for a boozy real estate bash but not happy to host an airshow that pumps tens of millions of pounds into the local economy.”

Hypocrisy flying high here…

https://order-order.com/2025/06/24/libdem-council-chief-jetted-to-cannes-despite-cancelling-carbon-intensive-red-arrows-air-show/

We need a new word for a new order of magnitude of self-unawareness.

Scissor
Reply to  strativarius
June 24, 2025 5:26 am

I wonder what other factors contributed to excess deaths in 2021 and 2022.

strativarius
Reply to  Scissor
June 24, 2025 5:40 am

Boredom coupled with drink, drugs etc

Reply to  strativarius
June 24, 2025 8:56 am

Chris Rock referred to the willfully ignorant as “ignant”. It seems to fit.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  strativarius
June 24, 2025 10:56 am

We can recycle an old word. Criminal.

Dave Fair
Reply to  strativarius
June 24, 2025 11:08 am

The old word still applies: Leftist.

Reply to  strativarius
June 24, 2025 11:38 am

The ‘cash-strapped’ council bleated it couldn’t stomach the £250,000 price tag.”

Probably gonna save that money for their annual cost of living pay raises.

Leon de Boer
June 24, 2025 5:22 am

I love the term “Excess Mortality” it’s a classic. Everybody dies exactly once to have excess mortality somebody has to die more than once 🙂

I didn’t even bother to read it because just from that bullsh*t title it will be attribution statistics which is about as reliable as your daily star sign astrology.

Reply to  Leon de Boer
June 24, 2025 5:54 am

Seems to be more counter-attribution since it determined that people just die, and blaming it on the weather is problematic.

June 24, 2025 7:23 am

People generally have wardrobes suited to the cold conditions we ‘enjoy’ in the northern hemisphere. People may not have the wealth to furnish a lighter weight ensemble and are maybe inclined to make do with inappropriate attire in the warmer months which has to exacerbate their difficulties with raised temperatures.

MarkW
Reply to  Europeanonion
June 24, 2025 8:36 am

Which means that if the alarmists are correct (yea right), then when it gets warmer, warmer will be the new normal, and people will buy wardrobes appropriate for the new climate.

AWG
Reply to  Europeanonion
June 24, 2025 4:59 pm

People may not have the wealth to furnish a lighter weight ensemble and are maybe inclined to make do with inappropriate attire in the warmer months which has to exacerbate their difficulties with raised temperatures.

But they do have the wealth to afford billions in new taxes and regulations plus money to burn on projects claiming to blot out the sun.

Wearing lighter clothes is too difficult and expensive even though civilized people have been somehow coping for millennia. What is cheaper and simpler is Rube Goldberg inspired mechanisms that promise – but fail to deliver – the fine tuning of weather for a century from now.

June 24, 2025 8:53 am

What they are calling a heat wave would be a really nice summer day here in east Texas.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Shoki
June 24, 2025 11:00 am

We are having an “extreme” heatwave here on the Atlantic coast.

“likely bringing the hottest day in a decade to some major East Coast cities”

But 10 years ago it was just a heatwave.

Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
June 24, 2025 11:40 am

It was 92F by 9 AM- here in Wokeachusetts- don’t think I’ve ever seen that before in my 75 years.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
June 24, 2025 11:49 am

The temperatures I see, I have seen in recent years. I cannot speak for areas in which I never lived.

Yesterday, it was 104 F. By the time I got home it was 94 F, a 45 mile commute, no real change in altitude. I have seen that before many times here.

The hottest day I ever encountered was July 4, 1977. I just arrived for my first job out of college. No AC in the car. When I got out, I could barely breathe.

I’ve been in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New York decades ago when the temperature went above 100 F.

The point? Don’t like the weather, wait around a bit. It will change.

Adding scare words is not helping to do anything except emotionalize for propaganda purposes.

Sparta Nova 4
June 24, 2025 10:52 am

“excess mortality”

Wow. How to hyperbolize in one easy step.

Edward Katz
June 24, 2025 2:38 pm

As I’ve said before, the alarmist media will pounce on any weather event to claim it’s caused a higher jump in mortality or just general illness. Meanwhile, Britain’s The Lancet has published studies that show extreme cold kills far more than extreme heat. And doesn’t it it seem odd that if heat is such a threat, the majority of the world’s population resides in warmer zones, not in Arctic and sub-Arctic areas? Except that irresponsible governments, media outlets, and scientists will never pass up the opportunity to profit from the claim that human-induced climate change is making hot weather spells more lethal.

June 24, 2025 4:40 pm

News flash!

Excessively hot weather can kill poor old people who can’t afford adequate air conditioning.

Excessively cold weather can kill even more poor old people who can’t afford adequate heating.

An increase of about 1 ºC in excessively hot weather over the last century is unlikely to be statistically significant. Over the last century, an increasing number of people have access to air conditioning so it’s likely that heat-related deaths have declined over time. Show us the data and trends for heat-related deaths going back to 1900, just for fun.

Strangely, this study only compared excess deaths to heat, not cold. Report the excess deaths in December–February due to unusually low temperatures, compare them to the number of excess deaths in June–August, and get back to us. Should be illuminating.

Bob
June 24, 2025 7:11 pm

The number of deaths is meaningless unless we know the cause of death.