Much has been written recently about the death of expertise in America. On one subject after another, those claiming to be experts have proved to be completely wrong. Covid provided multiple examples: from the origins (did it come from a lab leak?), to the efficacy of vaccines, to the necessity of lockdowns and “social distancing.” Another famous example was the Hunter Biden laptop, stated by 50+ “experts” from the intelligence community to carry “the classic earmarks” of “Russian disinformation.”
But has there been any area where self-proclaimed experts have more made fools of themselves than the area of “climate change”?
A multi-trillion dollar industry has grown up based on models and assurances by “experts” that there was a “climate crisis” that could only be solved by transition to a new energy future of windmills and solar panels. The government would just order it to occur! President Joe Biden and his administration totally bought into the narrative. One of Biden’s first-day Executive Orders (Number 14008, January 20, 2021) proclaimed the “climate crisis” to which the solution would be found in an “all of government” agenda to transform the energy system. Excerpt:
The United States and the world face a profound climate crisis. We have a narrow moment to pursue action at home and abroad in order to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of that crisis and to seize the opportunity that tackling climate change presents. . . . We must listen to science—and act. . . . It is the policy of my Administration to organize and deploy the full capacity of its agencies to combat the climate crisis to implement a Government-wide approach that reduces climate pollution in every sector of the economy. . . .
Following this EO, regulations burst forth from the EPA, the Energy Department, the Interior Department, the SEC, and many more to hobble fossil fuels and further a mythical transition to renewables. Fossil fuel power plants were to be banned by regulation. Same for non-electric vehicles. The (mis-named) Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 threw uncapped hundreds of billions of dollars for “green energy” into the mix. The private sector followed with near-universal pledges of fealty to the agenda. Less than four years ago today, this is where we found ourselves.
Today, in the real world, nobody buys this any more. And by the “real world,” I mean the private sector. Ford, GM and Stellantis/Chrysler have taken huge write-offs of their EV investments. The Net Zero Banking Alliance — a cartel of essentially all major banks, promising to choke off investment in fossil fuel infrastructure — disbanded in October 2025.
And more: A couple of weeks ago Latitude Media reported that the massive Bill Gates-backed green energy fund called Breakthrough Energy was shutting down its Catalyst affiliate. That’s the entity that provided funding for what were supposed to be the new technologies that were needed to make the green energy transition possible. Excerpt:
Breakthrough Energy has decided to cease new investments from Catalyst, its first-of-a-kind project finance arm, marking the latest setback for climate tech start ups trying to scale up in an already difficult market. . . . Catalyst set a goal to mobilize a total of $15 billion in project finance for technologies like green hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel, direct air capture, long-duration energy storage, and low-carbon cement and steel.
It looks like “philanthropic capital” is not going to be the solution for green energy. No more private capital for “green hydrogen” and “carbon capture” — two technologies that the Manhattan Contrarian has ridiculed as having no hope of ever becoming economic. Lara Pierpoint of the Prime Coalition had this to say:
“The fact that Catalyst is disappearing is a huge blow,” said Lara Pierpoint, managing director for Trellis Climate at Prime Coalition, which deploys philanthropic capital to early-stage climate tech, in an interview with Latitude Media. “There isn’t a replacement for what Catalyst was doing.”
And of course, the massive federal government gravy train for green energy is rapidly disappearing under President Trump.
But don’t worry — the “experts” are still out there making fools of themselves as if nothing has gone wrong. I’m talking particularly about people in not-for-profits and universities who don’t need to justify their existence by profits or success. I could choose from hundreds of examples, but for today’s Climate Change Expert Fool of the Day, let me pick on my own alma mater, Yale University.
Go to Yale’s website — or maybe that should be plural, websites — and you will find hundreds of pages about the university’s various climate initiatives, programs, and communications. All of these appear to be marching forward without modification as if nothing has changed. For example, check out the Yale Sustainability Plan 2025, a document of some 50+ pages. They don’t provide an issue date, but clearly this document was uttered after Donald Trump had become President for the second time. I’ll give you a few choice excerpts:
Ambitions, Objectives, and Goals
Yale’s 2025 sustainability commitments are organized into nine ambitions. These are detailed by 20 objectives and 38 goals. Each goal is supported by numerous strategies; key tactical milestones are included in the Steps and Targets tables.
Any resemblance to a Soviet five-year plan is purely coincidental. From the same Sustainability Plan, here’s an example of some academic writing that you too can aspire to if only you can obtain a fancy Ivy League degree:
This plan sets the stage for scholarship that challenges assumptions and helps to chart courses toward a more sustainable future. It was designed to invite communication and collaboration among academic disciplines and between the scholarly and operational sides of the University. This plan offers a dynamic and unifying platform for participation of all members of the Yale community, including students, alumni, faculty, staff, and leadership. It will also build on and enrich a diverse set of partnerships with leading institutions and networks in all parts of the world and in all sectors.
Whew! Has anyone told them yet that real world CO2 emissions go up continuously year by year and Yale’s emissions are so trivial that zeroing them out would never be noticed? Apparently not, because, the Sustainability Plan contains separate sub-plans for entities like the Library, the Divinity School and the Athletics Program.
And then there is the Yale Climate Communications Program, the purpose of which appears to be to scare the wits out of the population in order to keep the funding gravy train going. Their pitch:
Global warming is one of the greatest threats – and opportunities – of the 21st century. Our collective fate will be determined by the choices of 8 billion people and counting. We are scientists studying the causes and consequences of public opinion and behavior.
Yale’s climate “experts” are backed by a $44 billion endowment, plus regular grants from left-wing foundations with aggregate assets a multiple of that. They will not go away any time soon. So for the foreseeable future we can look forward to being entertained by their folly.
Netzero fools on an errand.
Take away that endowment and let’s see how much energy the experts would have left in pushing their theories which would collapse like a deflated balloon. As it is, how they can keep their existential climate crisis song&dance routine nattering away like a broken record is hard to comprehend when the majority of realities point in the opposite direction. Why aren’t the global population and life expectancies declining? Why aren’t there extensive crop failures and resulting famines? Why aren’t there widespread population shifts toward more arable lands? Why has global GDP continued to rise? Why aren’t there examples of extensive food rationing? These are the occurrences that the alarmists would like to see happening to support their theories—as long as they and their families aren’t negatively affected. But because they’re not, all they can do is make predictions about what is supposedly going to happen at some future time that they can’t identify unless the rest of the planet heeds their admonitions. Except all they’re really proving is that they just don’t know , and that’s why they’re consistently being ignored.
The Yale University professors are like the late Spiro Agnew’s “Nattering nabobs of negativism
You’ve just reminded me of that lovely anagram of Spiro Agnew – grow a penis!
Just hang on. [The Day of Reckoning is here.] So Cruel.
Around the turn of the century there were two camps of climate skeptics. One backed science as the driver of CC (then called Global Warming) and the other said it was politics. Hindsight says it has been politics all along with money control being the catalyst.
Oh dear I’m so old. I read “turn of the century” and immediately thought “they had climate sceptics back in 1900?”.
Indeed so, as understanding of atmospheric dynamics developed. By 1938, within the meteorology discipline, Sir George Simpson and Professor David Brunt explained to Guy Callendar exactly why they had serious reservations about his attribution of reported surface warming to emissions of CO2. More here.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/04/06/open-thread-138/#comment-4058322
I love to tell youngsters I was born in the first half of the last century. (1949)
They look at me like I’m Rip Van Winkle. 🙂
They don’t seem to be able tp calculate transaction change either
Using the term “turn of the millennium” will cure that. At the time (Late December 1999) I asked our IT guy if he had plans for the “turn of the millennium” His snotty reply informed me it wouldn’t happen until January 1st 2001. I am reminded of the aphorism “Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit, and wisdom is knowing not to put one in a fruit salad“
“On one subject after another, those claiming to be experts have proved to be completely wrong.”
But… but… I think it was Elon Musk who said AI will soon be like having a PhD in every subject instantly available to you. He may be right based on my short time experimenting with chatGPT. I’m not surprised that it can answer questions but the speed is mind blowing. I’m now experimenting with it making images for me- and that’s fun.
But it is still just consensus “science”.
Apparently, but you can ask it about alternative views on any contentious subject- I presume. I hesitated to start using it- but find it’s interesting and fun. If you haven’t tried it, go to chat.openai.com. Other people here have a lot of experience with AI. Some really get into debating it.
I had the exact same issue wrt consensus science with Gemini. I asked if the following were at one time consensus science: stress causes stomach ulcers, static universe, fixed continent theory, bloodletting, and geocentrism. I then got it to ignore the consensus and give me a more balanced view based only on actual data.
Remember, at this stage we are helping to train it how to ‘think’.
Right- when it says something smart, I give it a thumbs up.
I’ve already determined that the best stock analysts will be those who know the right questions to ask. After that, AI can get all the info, analyze the data, compare it with other companies in the industry, factor in trends, and adjust for the political environment. In seconds.
It’s odd. Anyway, back on planet normal here is a link to the new 2026 JP Morgan energy report:
https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/eur/en/insights/latest-and-featured/eotm/annual-energy-paper
Lots of stuff to look through, you can download it for free. covers this year;
“Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of small modular reactors, Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear, China’s dominance of renewable supply chains, solid oxide fuel cells as turbine alternatives, the materiality of demand response, staffing cuts at the EIA, the hype around geothermal and geologic hydrogen, the misplaced fascination with small country energy transitions, satellite vs factor-based oil & gas basin methane emissions, the mostly profitless EV industry, xAI mobile gas plant permits, negligible progress on carbon capture and renewable fuels, and the unfavorable economics of charging my Jeep Wrangler hybrid.
To begin, a few charts on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.”
==
Reality will win. After everybody is bankrupt.
With that kind of money, they could launch their own satellite mission to broadcast bad science back to earth continuously while leaving the solar system and outliving the earth itself. That would be in a mission trailing the previous mission beyond the solar system for the egotistic Carl Sagan.
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.” – Richard P. Feynman
Truer words were never spoken.
….and they’re not happy with them-
‘Weakening climate leadership’: Is the EU’s 2040 emissions target ambitious enough?
…and what’s more they don’t want the damn things unless you bribe them or they’re dirt cheap coal fired ones dumped by the Commies-
Car makers call for urgent review of EV sales targets as demand wanes
Good points here. Keep up the good work, Francis Menton!
“Yale’s climate “experts” are backed by a $44 billion endowment, plus regular grants from left-wing foundations with aggregate assets a multiple of that. They will not go away any time soon.”
Vigilance. I encourage skeptics of climate alarm to keep hammering away at the unsound core claim of harm from emissions of CO2. When dynamic energy conversion within the general circulation is properly considered, there is no remaining physical justification to expect a perceptible influence on “warming” or on any trend of climate variables, from the incremental IR absorbing power of rising concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, and other trace gases. The true experts like Edward Lorenz described the fundamentals of atmospheric motion many decades ago, and the ERA5 reanalysis model computes the bulk flow with all its energy implications. The values of the hourly parameter “vertical integral of energy conversion” demonstrate the point visually, as in this time-lapse video I posted in 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDurP-4gVrY
I have also been posting this Google Drive folder where there is more material and a complete explanation with references.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1PDJP3F3rteoP99lR53YKp2fzuaza7Niz?usp=drive_link
Thank you for your participation against “climate” alarm.
David Dibbell:
This is a post that I made on Francis Menton’s site, which was initially withheld for review, but then published:
“It can be PROVEN that global warming due to the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere does NOT exist.
This is a summary of the proof:
“Between 1955 and 1979, annual industrial SO2 aerosol emissions (a mist of reflective Sulfuric Acid droplets) rose from 55 million tons to 139 million tons, and there fears of a new Ice Age because of the increasingly polluted air.
Also in the 1970’s due to American and European legislation, laws were passed to reduce the amount of industrial SO2 aerosol pollution in the troposphere, because of Acid rain and Health concerns.
Temperatures finally began rising in 1980, when decreasing levels of SO2 aerosol pollution increased the intensity of the solar radiation striking the Earth’s surface, and warming inevitably occurred.
Between 1980 and 1999, annual levels of SO2 aerosol pollution fell from 137 million tons in 1980, to 133 million tons in 1990, and average anomalous global temperatures rose from 0.14 Deg. C to 0.34 Deg. C
On June 23, Dr. James Hanse, Director of NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies made a presentation to a U.S. Senate Committee, where he stated that temperatures then were higher than at any time in the history of instrumental measurements, which was about 100 years.
Without any empirical evidence, he concluded that the warming was due to the “Greenhouse Effect”, and, unfortunately, this was accepted by almost everyone.
However, the warming that he alluded to was not due to greenhouse gasses, but was actually due to the on-going warming from the 1970’s “Clean Air” legislation!
Between 1980 and 2020, industrial SO2 aerosol emissions fell from 137 million tons to 72 million tons, and temperatures rose to 0.92 Deg. C. because of the less polluted air.”
Greenhouse Gas warming can be observed in Greenhouses and Laboratories, but its trace amount in our atmosphere (0.04%) has no climatic effect, apart from decreasing Earth’s albedo
Further, there is not a single instance of decreasing or increasing average anomalous global temperatures that cannot be shown to be due to changing levels of SO2 aerosol pollution in the atmosphere.
Thank you for taking the time to reply. I don’t take issue with the case for considering emissions of SO2 to be an important factor.
BUT when you say, concerning those emissions, “It can be PROVEN that global warming due to the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere does NOT exist.” – it is a logical misstep. The negative cannot be “proven” that way.
David Dibbell:
You say that you consider “continuing emissions of SO2 to be an important factor”.
No, the important factor is DECREASING levels of industrial SO2 aerosol emissions into our atmosphere due to the 1970’s “Clean Air” legislation.
I also think that you missed my point:
Dr. Hansen made the claim that the warming in the 1980’s was due to the “Greenhouse Effect”, when, in fact, it was actually due to the continuing decreases in atmospheric SO2 aerosol pollution noted above.
His erroneous statement has been used as the basis for claiming that rising levels of CO2 in our atmosphere will cause temperatures to increase, which even you appear to accept.
The population of the world is suffering greatly due to the useless attempts to achieve “Net Zero”, and trillions of dollars have already been wasted in that useless attempt!.
Sir, I did not say “continuing.” Please re-read my reply to you.
And no, I consider the rising levels of CO2 to have nothing perceptible to do with temperatures.
And no, I did not miss your point. I’m simply noting that your conclusion does not follow logically from your premise.
David Dibbell:
I’m still confused by your comment.
I did not offer a premise, just a straight-forward listing of facts which resulted in encountering Dr. Hansen’s erroneous claim that our warming was due to the “Greenhouse Effect”.
What is most important is that the control knob for our climate is simply the amount of SO2 aerosols in our atmosphere.
Thank you for following up.
Your premise is,
“…there is not a single instance of decreasing or increasing average anomalous global temperatures that cannot be shown to be due to changing levels of SO2 aerosol pollution in the atmosphere.”
You state this as a “proof” of your conclusion,
“…global warming due to the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere does NOT exist.”
Both your premise and your conclusion may indeed be valid, but the conclusion does not follow necessarily from the premise.
David Dibbell:
No, you have it backwards.
I established that global warming due to the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere does NOT exist.
But global warming is (was) clearly happening, so I added the cause of the warming– decreasing global levels of industrial SO2 aerosol pollution)
However, it is now cooling, due to several VEI4 volcanic eruptions in early 2025, and increasing levels of industrial SO2 aerosol, pollution, primarily from China and India.
I am not debating the effects of SO2.
I am debating that there is a single “control knob.”
The Earth’s energy system can be expressed by analogy as a 10,000 piece jigsaw puzzle.
A single control know would be akin, in this metaphor, as picking up a corner piece and claiming the puzzle has been solved.
Continuing with our metaphor, we have not yet completed the edge piece border. There is much we do not yet know.
Sparta Nova 4:
Nevertheless, there is not a single instance of a change in average anomalous global temperatures that cannot be associated with a change in global SO2 aerosol pollution levels.
You might Google “A Graphical Explanation of Climate Change”
Even an American Business Recession will cause global temperatures to change.
>>the “experts” are still out there making fools of themselves as if nothing has gone wrong.
I frequently read posts at Realclimate.com where supposedly the best of the best climate scientists discuss their work.
This week Foster and Rahmstorf presented a recent article of theirs supposedly showing accelerated global warming.
There are a few easy to spot problems (I didn’t bother to read their publication – life is too short for that kind of nonsense)
– they remove “effects of ENSO, volcanoes and changes in solar forcing” and seemingly end up with a data series with less noise than the original data, which is a mathematical impossiblity (this step is obviously lacking a rigorous error handling as the trends they are removing have uncertainties themselves, which at least in the RC article are completely ignored) Their cleaned up result looks nothing like the original data, while there are countless valid alternatives to the choices made in this data processing step
– the data range is short,not cherry picking sensor is going wild.
The real problem here seems to be that if a non-expert can see holes as big as those in the reasoning, how can an editor and expert reviewers pass such nonsense?
“Expert” definition
Ex = has been
Spert = drip under pressure
W. M. Briggs has some articles about this. In essence, creating a model that acheives some kind of smoothing and claiming it as real data for use in a successive model is only fooling yourself. This can include successive averaging. All of this requires a detailed and comprehensive attention to proper propagation of uncertainty.
These are time series and creating non-real data trends without adequate attention to error terms results in non-real conclusions.
Thank you for the rephrasing, this is exactly what I meant.
The only additional thing I want to point out is that this is not some special secret knowledge a W. M. Briggs needs to explain (but of course I applaud his attempt to educate non-scientists!!!), but common knowledge for scientists like Foster, Rahmstorf, the editor and every reviewer!
It’s like trying to sell food without salt, every cook will know what is wrong!
The lack of scrutiny is unfathomable! If only one renown scientist could write an official comment to that paper..
Biden might have been president, but he certainly wasn’t running the country.
Perhaps ‘ruining’ is the word you’re looking for.
Aye, Obama certainly did that in the background
“Go to Yale’s website — or maybe that should be plural, websites — and you will find hundreds of pages about the university’s various climate initiatives, programs, and communications.”
One of their web sites also has articles about forestry- and most of the time those articles are dead wrong. Written by academics who never worked a day in a forest.
Seems like there is an element from “Life gets tedious don’t it” here
“The mouse is gnawing at the cupboard door
He’s been gnawing there for a month or more
When he gets through won’t he be sore
Cause there ain’t a darn thing in it”