Roger Caiazza
Irina Slav on energy Substack is described as “All things energy. Challenging the dominant narrative because facts matter”. Her latest article “Post Ridiculous” describes the possible last straw for EV adoption.
Slav introduces her post with an extraordinary quote admitting that all is not right for EVs:
“We can’t push EVs into the market against demand.” Thus spoke the head of Ford’s European operations this week, commenting on the company’s plans to start diverting ICE car deliveries from the UK to the continent. Why? Because the UK has EV sales goals and if carmakers don’t align their business with these goals, they face substantial penalties.
“We are not going to sell EVs at huge losses just to buy compliance. The only alternative is to take our shipments of [engine] vehicles to the UK down and sell these vehicles somewhere else,” the brave man, by the name of Martin Sander, said, speaking at the FT’s Future of the Car conference in London.
https://www.ft.com/content/ff0f3966-0565-434b-81a7-9b2bb3c20e21
The Climate Industry narrative is different of course. Despite that bit of reality in Great Britain it was reported that “Sales of electric vehicles have got off to a record start this year, the latest sign that British consumers are shifting their preferences towards greener modes of transport.”
Back in the real world, Slav writes that “Back in January, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas published a column, in which he sounded an alarm for governments willing to listen.” Slav posted an earlier article addressing the same problem: “what governments are going to do about fuel duty income replacement if their EV plans panned out.”
She describes the Blas column:
Blas detailed why governments needed to start thinking about a tax to replace their lost income from fuel duty collection because there was no time to waste — the EVs were coming and they were not paying any taxes while displacing a growing number of tax-generating internal combustion engine vehicles.
Blas was his usual helpful, too, unlike me. He offered realistic options such as road use charges based on number of miles travelled every year or GPS tracking, which was the worse option for obvious reasons. While both these options have certain shortcomings, notably a regressive streak, they are both better than other alternatives such as car ownership charges or additions to income taxes.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-29/europe-s-grand-ev-ambitions-have-a-160-billion-tax-problem
While those are realistic options, in my opinion it is yet another reason to avoid an EV. Slav goes on to explain that governments have caught on to the problem and have started to tax EV drivers. She writes:
“It is more like a penalty,” a gentleman by the name of Jeff Shoffner, a Tennessee EV owner, told the FT for a story that came out this week. “I’m not averse to paying the extra fee, but I think it’s too high.”
The comments were prompted by Tennessee’s decision to double the state registration fee for EV owners from $100 to $200. Quite a hike, you might say. Whatever may have made such a radical increase necessary, you might wonder. Well, it’s the same realisation that EVs have turned into cash-guzzlers and are giving nothing back — except the absence of tailpipe smoke. And that’s not good enough for a frugal government.
https://irinaslav.substack.com/
It turns out that most states are increasing registration fees to start to address this problem. Slav documents similar actions in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Germany. She points out that when the inevitable switch from incentives to taxes occurs then EV sales tank:
In case this sounds familiar, it’s because Germany also scrapped an EV incentive scheme because it ran out of money. Following this decision, EV sales in the country plummeted and that’s not an overstatement. Sales of electric cars in January 2024 dropped by 55% and kept falling.
https://irinaslav.substack.com/
There is one positive. The virtue-signaling early EV adopters will be asked to pick up the slack. Slav writes:
I leave you with the heartfelt words of one victim of governments’ offensive against EV adopters. I would have paraphrased but tears choked me and made my hands shake, so a quote it is, from the FT.
““It’s discouraging. We were glad to be at the forefront with incentives and adoption rates . . . This particular thing with the registration fees seems to go against that,” said Patrick McDevitt, a Tesla driver in New Jersey.”
I would admit that the above burst of sarcasm is too crude, even for me. But you see, we told them this would happen. We told them repeatedly. They didn’t listen. So now they’ll be joining the tax-paying drivers’ club. Life’s cruel.
https://irinaslav.substack.com/
Conclusion
This is a fundamental issue for EVs. The only way to get people to buy electric vehicles is to subsidize them but subsidizing them leads to tax losses elsewhere. Slav concludes:
For the umpteenth time, then, we have our dear Western governments try to have their transition cake and eat it, too, and not gain a single ounce of extra weight. They wanted combustion engine cars out but forgot that these cars bring in billions in tax income. They wanted a fully electrified transport but forgot it wouldn’t bring in money unless they make it more expensive. They wanted a revolution but forgot rule #1 for revolutions: the successful ones never start from the top. They start from the bottom.
https://irinaslav.substack.com/
In my opinion that characterizes just about all the net-zero energy transition initiatives.
Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York. This represents his opinion and not the opinion of any of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated.
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Story Tip:
Martin
May 8, 2024 4:14 pm
MAY 08 2024
Italy travel chaos LIVE: Bolzano factory fire sees flights grounded by smoke cloud
A huge factory fire in Italy has caused travel chaos with flights grounded due to a massive cloud of smoke seen for miles.
The Alpitronic factory, which specializes in manufacturing charging stations for electric cars, in Bolzano is currently ablaze, with terrifying pictures and videos showing bright orange flames engulfing the building.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1896926/italy-travel-chaos-live-bolzano-car-factory-fire
=====================================
ALPiTRONiC
Driving the forefront of DC fast-charging technology,
Alpitronic is committed to shaping a sustainable, electric future.
Our signature Hypercharger product line has electrified Europe with reliable, compact, and efficient solutions
Power electronics is in our DNA
https://www.alpitronic.it/en/
Mostly peaceful.
And mostly reliable?
Warehouse fire. Warehouse undergoing maintenance…
I look forward to California EV adoptees experiencing sticker shock when registration and per mile fees explode.
I look forward to the look of desperation on their faces when they try to trade-in a 4 year or older EV. 🙂
Will we see an entrepreneurial opening to supply homeowners with a shed and kit to repurpose the old EV as a storage battery for the house?
Tires, seats, and other usable parts could be harvested for resale.
Nah, the battery is the part of the EV that will reach “end of life” first. Except tires.
The EV battery is good for at least 20 years although capacity could be down 20% by then
AGW is science
You are a There Is No AGW Nutter
You keep calling people “Nutters”. How well is that working to sway them to your arguments?
Adults can not be swayed.
Especially adult Nutters.
There are some scientists who have radically changed their minds, such as Judith Curry, but they are the rare exception to my rule of thumb.
A useful first step is to get the Nutters out of a conservative echo chamber and inform them that they are science denying Nutters.
Even worse, the Nutters contradict the best, in my opinion, Ph.D. climate scientists who are ON OUR SIDE
The Nutters are claiming 100% of consensus climate scientists are wrong, and perhaps 95% of skeptic scientists are wrong — for extreme Nutters, 99% of skeptic scientists are wrong.
No one can refute leftist CAGW junk science with conservative There is No AGW junk science.
Hopefully, the Nutters (science deniers) will think twice before engaging with leftists and making some, or all, of the following false claims that make all conservatives seem like junk science fools
There is no greenhouse effect
There is no AGW
CO2 is 95% natural
El Ninos control the climate
The sun controls the climate
Volcanoes heat the oceans and they warm the planet
I use Nutters to refer to conservative science deniers
Leftists predicting CAGW doom are also science deniers. But they are beyond Nutters — They are Lunatics.
Adults can not be swayed.
Especially adult Nutters.
So you’re not even trying to convince the undecided, then.
Well, of course you’re not, because undecideds who read your unhinged rants filled with insults aren’t going to pay much attention to what you’re saying.
He’s not here to change people’s minds
Yeah, he’s made that abundantly clear. And he just admitted it.
As an Electrical Engineer, I don’t deny science, but I have a lot of experience with battery systems and charging them. EVs make sense for some customers, in some usage scenarios, but they don’t work for me. I drive too far, too often and need to pull trailers.
Let the market decide what they want. Mandates, and government attempting to force limited choices onto the hoi polloi, are destined to fail.
I’m also an EE (old, long-retired) who spent 33y in and around fossil and nuclear plants which produce power 24/7, and have a lot of experience with batteries in all sorts of applications. In many cases they do not live up to expectations when most needed. EVs work well most of the time on golf courses and around town (if the don’t spontaneously combust and burn down your house, but they not worth much for trips, winter driving or towing trailers. Then too, if we go 100% EVs, we have to rebuilt the whole electric power system at great expense.
“I use Nutters to refer to conservative science deniers”
Calling yourself a NUTTER….. go for it.
We have all seen how much you deny any science that doesn’t fit into your naive, ego-based. narrow-minded lukewarmer brain-washing.
Although, I suspect you don’t fall into the “conservative” bracket.
Maybe a closet climate activist.
He’s not here to change people’s minds, he’s here to make himself feel good about himself.
Using arrogant child-minded bluster… akin to a tantrum by a 5-year-old.
Makes him “feel” good..
How very leftist of him.
All it does is make people see just how arrogant and stupid RG really is.
A scientific non-entity with a yappy mouth.
Hilarious. !
EV batteries never achieve anywhere close to 20 years.
Not LiPO batteries anyway.
I’m on my 5-6th laptop battery, one of which is barely a yeaar old.
All the old iphones here can’t last a day. *which is usually why people give them away.
where is my 20yr guarantee then?
They all use li-ion tech and repairing these little devices is not cheap.
I have a li-ion powered eletric power wrench.
It doesn’t get used every day so no suprise has lasted more than a year quite fine.
Leave it in the freezing boot of my car in winter?
In that case forget using it at all to change a wheel in any emergency, so like all tech of this sort is least useful in extreme but normal conditions.
My experiences with all of them is the main reason I would never own any form of EV.
Liar.
My company, EV Disposal Service, will make your EV “disappear” so you can collect insurance money and buy two ICE cars.
We are talking orders now but our President, Walter “I didn’t do it” Washington, and his staff, are temporarily on a “leave” for 6 to 12 months.
That’s funny.
“That’s funny.”
No, not at all. !
Somebody out there must be accumulating statistics on the sale of used EVs. I suppose most of the people who are buying them now are wealthy enough to not be horrified by a bad used market for EVs. But the not so wealthy expect to get a good price for their used vehicle if they take good care of it. The wealthy will just trade them in every few years. I hope someone is doing this market research now.
The wear and tear on the mechanicals due to the vast weight increase makes buying a used EV a serious risk.
Well, if only the space aliens will explain to us zero point energy as an anti gravity propulsion system- then it won’t be a problem.
Not to mention insurance rates in a state that has decreed Insurance to be mandatory and insurers climbing all over each other to vacate the state and cancel policies for any imagined deficit
Vehicle insurance rates in Wokeachusetts shot up about 50% this year. I’ve complained to my state rep who knew nothing about it and is too stupid to find out. I complained to the state registry of motor vehicles which replied that they’d investigate. That was months ago and I’ve heard nothing from them. My local insurance broker said all insurance in this state shot way up this year- she doesn’t know why either but she has people complaining to her- but it’s not her fault- nothing she can do about it. And I don’t have a dam EV. I can’t imagine what the rates are for EVs. My broker said they are “much higher” as it pretty much depends on the sale price. At least as of now. When it’s fully understood that repairs are much more expensive- the rates will shoot up again- which is fine as long as they don’t try to spread that extra cost to the rest of us.
Salute!
Not so good to hear, Joseph.
OTOH, maybe you can find someone that has auto insurance for multiple vehicles and one is EV. Then get a pic of the policy using your phone and crop out the extraneious stuff so all we see is vehicle type and then rates for collision and comprehensive.
I am gonna get with a guy who has a Leaf just for puttering about. I’ll ask. He also kept good records of electricity costs and such. Mybe he can help.
How about it? Someone here can do the same, huh?
Gums sends…
FYI, insurance is capital socialism. They collect and pool the capital (after taking a percentage) then dole it out basically on demand. Each according to his ability (to pay) for each according to his need.
ObamaCare required that health care for the elderly be no more than 3 times as expensive as care for 20 year olds. Regardless of how much more expensive they may be to insure.
I’m quite sure that they will require insurance to cost the same for EVs and ICEVs, as soon as the politically influential start complaining.
Given the fact that the vast majority of early adopters have been the elite, I wouldn’t be surprised if the political protests delay these charges for years, and when they finally start being rolled out, they will be inadequate to cover the tax revenue lost, and will be structured so that the middle class and poor will be hit the hardest.
__________________________________________________
Ha ha ha ha! Good one!
Not a problem if your wealthy- and you then get your virtue signaling to impress your woke friends.
Most of the Green Blob are socialists first and last, and really really believe in Central Planning. The apparatchiks can in their obvious wisdom (to themselves) set all goals, and ordain whatever results they consider desirable. They also have contempt for technology, in the real world, so lack of results is just lack of will.
There should be a Planning Commission. Supposedly the Czechoslovak Planning Commission received a letter from the Institute of Electronics saying Americans just discovered something called Transistor, and we discovered a way to produce them cheaply, can we proceed? The Commission said We will assess the market, in two months they replied that there was absolutely no demand for transistors (a new word nobody ever heard of) in Czechoslovakia.
the home of Kafka?
I read his book “Castle” and I thought, “heck, this reminds me of my interactions with the state environmental agency”.
It really is a total MESS. !! Rather funny to watch though. 😉
Where Unsold EVs Go To Die: Belgium’s Ports Drowning Under Glut Of Chinese Imports | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT (wordpress.com)
On the plus side, looks like they have a limitless supply of boat anchors.
Probably should take the batteries out first.
Flares?
drastic price cuts coming?
oh oh oh
Big Bad Oil public revenue finally recognized at risk.
Oil and gas is one of the most taxed industries in the world in both the upstream and downstream.
Producers pay royalty (often to state and federal government) in range of 10-30%. Then pay severance and ad valorem tax in range of 10-15% to state and local governments, often funding education. Then there’s the 10% gasoline fed/state tax on gasoline to fund highway infrastructure. If oil companies make any profit after that robbery, then they pay income tax.
Bye bye bye to this cash cow when wind and solar and EVs which need subsidies are bigger part of energy mix…
The problem is with the argument. The argument is, you can lower emissions by converting power generation to wind and solar, then you use this power to charge autos, and lo! Emissions have gone to zero.
But the problem is, as with heat pumps, you cannot move power generation to wind and solar, and the consequence of trying it is that you end up moving it to gas. You then burn gas at about 35% efficiency (lowered from what is possible in continuous use because you are running intermittent fast start to accommodate the wind turbine fluctuations). You transmit the generated power to charging stations, and then charge the vehicle batteries. This introduces losses. How much? Don’t know, but at least 10%.
If you are going to use gas to power the cars (or the heat pumps) then its better to use it directly either to heat houses with gas boilers or to drive cars with ICE engines. In the real world converting the end use to electricity is going to increase emissions, not reduce them.
As the old saying goes, if politicians were really worried about climate change, they’d have taken a science course.
The course, would have to be ‘dumbed down’ for them.
Not that long ago – perhaps 10 years – there were incentives available here in NY from NYSERDA to adopt cars fueled with CNG. It was especially attractive for fleet operators. It made sense because of the success of fracking for natural gas production in nearby PA and in parts of NY.
I said the problem is with the argument on emission reduction. Well, not just that. The other huge problem is with the assumption that EVs are plug compatible replacement for ICE cars.
They simply are not. Charge time is one big factor. Range is another, particularly in cold weather. Expense to insure given fragility of batteries is another. Availability of charging points is another.
People really will not buy them when they find out – they are refusing to buy them now, in the UK: the sales are coming from heavily tax advantaged fleet sales.
We are getting to a fork in the road. On one side is persistence with the UK’s Net Zero plans, and the quotas and fines on ICE car sales. Continue down this route, and you don’t get to lower emissions, nor do you get to replace ICE cars with EVs. What you get is a buyer’s strike and the closure of most of the UK auto industry. And an aging installed base, as people hang on to their ICE cars as long as they possibly can.
Down this road in about ten years you really will have increased the percentage of cars in use which are EVs. But you will not only have decimated the UK car industry, you’ll also have wiped out many of the current uses of cars, and the social and economic effects of this will also be huge.
On the other side is a climbdown, abolish the quota and fines. The chances of this in the UK are few to zero. Especially with the fanatical Miliband as Energy Minister, which will happen in November.
Miliband is not only responsible for the Climate Change Act, first version. He is also responsible for the disastrous Smart Meter program.
There is no mainstream politician or media publication in the UK who will dare to name this craziness for what it is, so the only advice one can give them is, get ready for cold, blackouts,much reduced mobility and a deep recession. Odds are its coming to a home near you.
“the sales are coming from heavily tax advantaged fleet sales.”
Didn’t Hertz just sell / get rid of another 10,000 EVS ?
That’ll certainly slow down fleet sales, because fleets will have much the same problems as rentals.
Hertz likely gave them away. Who in their right mind would willingly buy a used fleet EV?
Oh, yeah, so-called greens would
Mark it down as a HUGE taxation loss.
Yes, they did. In the UK however there is a different system at work. It used to be a tax avoidance measure for companies to give staff company cars as part of compensation, and this was not taxed as income, so the practice became very widespread down to quite junior staff levels.
The cars themselves are owned and leased to the company giving the benefit by a fleet operator.
Eventually the tax situation was changed, so that the value of the car is now counted as a taxable benefit in kind.
However, there is now also a large discount on the imputed value if an employee takes an electric car.
So if you are an employee, you can now take your car as ICE and pay tax pretty much as if you were getting the lease payments as income. Or you can take an EV and get it, not tax free, but at a great discount. So people, understandably, do, and that, as intended, has been a great incentive for the EV market.
This is why fleet sales have held up in the UK. Private buyers on the other hand, not so much…
Because private buyers are staying away, used EV prices are falling. This of course affects the fleet buyers, who expect to be able to sell their cars at a small profit or at least breakeven into the used car market when they come off lease after three years. This is probably now not happening with the fall in used EV prices.
In the end the basic fact is that EVs are not a sensible choice for most people at the same price, let alone the higher price they go for when new. So the UK Government is finding complicated ways to subsidize the price to make them attractive. But in the end there is not enough money in the chain for everyone to be able to sell EVs either used or new at the price people are willing to pay, in the quantities which the quota legislation requires. If you think about it, all there is to play with in this scheme is the tax difference between EV and ICE. That is not enough to cover everyone’s costs while marking down the EV prices to the point where they will find buyers.
The next year or two are going to be very interesting. Buy your three year old ICE car now, though!
I think in the UK petrol diesel cars will continue you to be sold to private buyers, you will just buy them in an offshore country and do a personal import , companies will be set up to do this . Back in the year 2000 it was much cheaper to buy right hand drive cars in Cypress so companies set up and were selling them in Slough .Also 6 years is a long time in politics , in2010 election no sign of leaving the EU , by 2016 we had voted to leave .
I would imagine that the companies are also going to have to build lots of charging stations in the company parking lots.
I not only thought that I even acted on it and purchased several older but very low-mileage used vehicles in the last couple of years. Now, having had to wait two weeks for a very ordinary replacement fuel injector, and my daughter waiting to get a new turbo for one of her cars, I am terrified when I see reports that manufacturers of such parts are expecting to close down because things like injectors and turbos are not needed to build EVs.
And of course there are the progressive municipal govenments introducing low-emission zones and fines all over the place, and ICE parking restrictions.
So “as long as they possibly can” might turn out to be as little as a couple of year. We are staring into the abyss.
If implementing this strategy it is important to only buy mass market models of car with high sales. For instance, a Ford Focus. The other thing might be hybrids like the Prius – so many of that have been sold that parts will be available for a good many years, and hybrids get favorable treatment in the quotas.
You’d think that should be the case, but the flip side of a large fleet on the roads means a proportionately large number of failures and repairs consuming the stock of parts. I hope you’re right but hope isn’t a plan. In my case the injector I needed was a Bosch part used by many manufacturers—about as mass market as such a thing can be.
Maybe the reason I had to wait so long was customs issues or some other logistics problem, but whatever the reason, it exposed a flaw in my plan to keep my ICE vehicles for as long as I can.
Maybe a refinement to the plan is to get two or three of the exact same model and plan to be able to keep at least one going by taking parts from the others.
I sound like someone living under sanctions or in Cuba or in the third-world. Is that where we’re heading? Also, having a stash of donor vehicles doesn’t solve the other problem I foresee, which is local government making ICE vehicles impractical.
The biggest EV killer for me is lifespan, I just can’t see them lasting much beyond 10 years, let alone the 20+ that vehicles from the late 90s onwards are capable of.
Yes, agreed. Any battery problem and you are into a writeoff.
EVs sell for about half as much in China without any direct incentives. They have access to cheap capital and reasonable environmental regulations.
Pivoting Western brands away from overpriced EVs with slow sales because they are too expensive will do nothing to stop Chinese imports.
Chinese manufacturers are setting up assembly plants in Mexico to get free trade rights into the US. The options are to push domestic manufacturers to produce competitive products or lay down and let China eat the market. End of list.
They will get reckt by reality.
Exactly, all the lobbying from western manufacturers against EVs instead of innovating will lead to their own destruction.
We already handed our PV industry to china, now we do the same with cars.
Only reason EV car manufacturing is because of the absolute IDIOCY of Net Zero and mandates for EVs over real cars.
It is purely political malfeaces….. moronic western government virtue-seeking.
Western society does not need PV or wind electricity, nor do they need EVs.
They are parasitic to society.
Western countries seem absolutely intent on totally destroying everything they have built up over many years…
.. for absolutely no rational or sane reason.
And fools like you cheer them on, even though you will go down with the rest of western civilisation…
bnice2000: do you mean “malfeces” instead of malfeaces?
I’ve seen it spelt both ways. 🙂
It is the message that counts.. and you got it. 🙂
You think innovation comes from government mandates? Innovation comes from a company providing a better product or service that people want to purchase. You believe you can control the future through bureaucratic diktats.
EVs sell for slot less than half as much in China because they’re Cheap Crap Eggmobiles that have trouble getting out of their own way
Often like This Car
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lvt9vEhf4vo&t=1s
Or This Truck
“EVs sell for about half as much in China without any direct incentives”
Not so. In June 2023 China had to extend tax breaks for EVs to 2027 at a cost of 520bn yuan (£56.9bn, $71.1bn)
American consumers want more than just basic transportation. Econoboxes don’t typically sell well and auto manufacturers usually sell at a loss in hopes buyers will become loyal to the brand and upgrade on their next purchase.
With Bidenflation, however, people are reluctant to make major purchases. Perhaps we’re going to return to Jimmy Carter’s era of malaise and consumer will lower their expectations and accept the upgraded golf carts China is peddling.
I will continue to maintain that the push to EVs was never about EVs, it wasn’t even about pollution or even CO2 emissions. Instead, it was always about removing private cars from entire societies. Private cars provide a means by which individuals can move quickly and in comfort to wherever they want, they are literally freedom machines. Authoritarian governments are increasingly interested in close control of the movement of people (15 minute cities, etc). Private cars are a major obstacle to that aim.
Ordinary people would not stand for the outright banning of private cars, that just wouldn’t stand, its too much of an obvious power grab. So, instead, the “climate catastrophe”, or whatever they call it these days, was used as the reason to push to reduce (and ultimately ban) ICE cars, ostensibly replacing them with EVs. But, the electrical grid, power production and the ability to manufacture batteries for these EVs simply cannot meet the demand to replace all of them.
Many make the mistake of assuming that they just had not taken that into consideration, that the people putting this forward were just incredibly naïve. But, I think of it more that they never considered that ALL, or even most ICE cars would be replaced with EVs. Instead, EVs and the ability to own and charge them would become increasingly difficult and expensive. Eventually, you will need a permit of some sort from the government to charge your EV (if you have one), you will only be allowed to charge it sufficiently to get to and from your work (i.e. you will not be able to build up sufficient charge to go where you want when you want). That’s if you’re lucky (or connected) enough to have access to an EV. Most will be forced to share one at best, again at the pleasure of the government. You’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy…or else.
The plan was, I think, to push through with a ban on ICE cars, to be fully implemented in the late 2020s or early 2030s. These plans are well underway in several Western countries. Once that was done, the constriction of EV availability would come very rapidly, with little ability of the public to resist it. Anyone caught driving an ICE vehicle would be arrested, their vehicle impounded and likely destroyed.
This would all tie in with the implementation of digital currencies and digital IDs, which would become an instant Chinese style social credit system (the Chinese system was a testing ground for the technology). You would go from a free person to an actual prisoner, working for credits that you can only spend at the canteen (in your allotted habitation zone), as long as you’ve been a “good citizen” and not had any bad thoughts about the government.
They’ll do this “for the greater good”.
Perhaps I’m just a nutter, but I don’t think you can claim that they aren’t actively trying to do all of the exceedingly dystopian actions above, and more.
There was never any sincere intention from the people pushing the narrative to make the grid capable of handling universal EV ownership, nor universal EV ownership. They want people stacked up in high density living situations, aka “cities”, or dead. The latter more likely.
See also: Hugo Drax
Heck, they aren’t beefing up the grid sufficiently to handle the heat pumps, electric appliances that they are mandating. There’s nothing left for the EVs, unless the population drops dramatically.
Beyond that, there is going to be a huge drop in the amount of electricity available as wind and solar take over from reliable power forms.
That does seem to be a key part of the plan.
My main counter-argument is what you say they’re doing sounds far too joined-up. I think civil servants and the governments that direct them are generally as thick as pig s*it. I struggle to imagine them executing a subtle plan effectively.
No, it’s cock-ups and magical thinking and innumeracy, all the way down.
As in –
“if it’s a choice between a conspiracy or a fvckup, bet on the fvckup every time”.
About the only thing we can be thankful for from these authoritarian bureaucrats is that they are largely incompetent. If they were actually competent, we would not be able to even have this discussion, or even formulate the thought to consider it.
Hanlon’s Razor is often proposed to explain why everything is degrading into the horrible state that it is. But I would posit that, were it just incompetence, the direction of the failures would be largely random. I.e. they would “fail” in ways that do not predominantly benefit a particular motivation. So, while it is true that the politicians and bureaucrats who are tasked with implementing these plans are largely incompetent, they do appear to be at least working towards a particular and common goal, one which is defined and imparted on them by a very small group of people who are in control of the large extra-governmental groups such as the UN, WEF, World Bank, etc.
The question then becomes, why would all these bureaucrats want to implement the edicts of a small group of people. For that you need to look into group psychology and the psychology of bureaucrats, especially those people who really want to be bureaucrats. We’ve seen this before, countless times, and the people pushing it are very well aware of how this psychology works, both for motivating the bureaucrats and for controlling (most of) the population.
In short: that they are not particularly competent at being tyrants does not acquit them of being tyrants and a very small group of motivated and knowledgeable people can quite easily control the actions of effectively the rest of the world.
—-
I’m not sure that I sound any less conspiratorial here either. But, it’s hard to not sound conspiratorial when there is actually an enormous conspiracy unfolding. I’d like to think that it’s all just random snafu’s. I really would. But whenever you look at what is going on and who is behind it, it all ends up back at the same small group of people. People do conspire, and powerful people, with vast amounts of wealth and enormous downside risks (they have a lot to lose) are heavily incentivized to guide the activities of the world in directions that will benefit themselves, or at least not put their accumulated wealth and power at risk. This does not require the knowing agreement of the people who are going to implement these policies though, they just have to be psychologically conditioned to do so, whether that be through ideological indoctrination, propaganda or just trickery.
Spot on. The climate change hysteria isn’t about the climate, either.
it was always about removing private cars from entire societies.
This sort of thing is often identified as “unintentional consequences”. I think that we must look at the “unintended” consequences (of any regulation or legislation) and consider if said consequences may have actually been the real intention.
Instead, it was always about removing private cars from entire societies.
Or more generally put, about control of the masses and accumulation of wealth by the power elites.
Engineer Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute has done a study comparing EVs vs ICE vehicles and despite many unknowns and dodgy assumptions by EV promoters, studies have concluded that an EV must travel somewhere between 60,000 and 90,000 miles before the total lifetime CO2 emissions fall below the emissions of a comparable ICE vehicle (Figures 4, 5), Mr Mills does his own calculations and concludes EVs during their lifetime may never emit less CO2 than an ICE vehicle (Figure 6). If that matters to prospective buyers.
There may be good reasons to buy and drive an EV but ‘saving the planet’ 😂 is not one of them.
If an EV gets used enough to be ready for the junk yard- I wonder if you’ll have to pay a lot to junk it? In my local recycling center- if I need to junk a TV, a computer, a refrigerator, an air conditioner, etc.- it’s getting very expensive. I’m presuming whoever has to junk an EV will find out it’s going to be very expensive- what with all the electronics, toxins in the batteries, etc.
Britain is finding out that making disposal difficult and expensive leads to flytipping.
flytipping? we yanks don’t know that word- but I did look it up!
makes me think of the YouTube channel- “Lost in the Pond”
The West after handing carmaking over to China-
China has won the EV war, and US car makers are changing their electric plans (thedriven.io)
Fisker fisked-
Fisker declares bankruptcy in Austria, production has stopped (msn.com)
while Rivian just burned through another $1.45billion in Q1 this year-
Once the darling of the EV world, the electric truck-maker Rivian is reeling – Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)
Once the smell of bankruptcy is in the air who wants to buy modern computers on wheels at any fire sale price?
‘Fire sale price’, could be the best description yet for BEVs
Would that be before or after the battery burns up the car?
LMAO.
Who wants to buy them anyway? Drive a few hours, sit for an hour to recharge (assuming you’re first in line), rinse and repeat.
A trip in one of those things is like torture.
Fire sale time in Oz to compete with Chinese dumping-
Nissan Leaf electric car slashed by up to $18,000 amid sales stall – for now (msn.com)
Meanwhile the Greenies are loathing on Toyota San cleaning up with world’s best hybrids and 12-24 months waiting queues-
The Toyota Files: Stalling on Climate Action (greenpeace.org.au)
While Federal Labor finally gets mugged by physics and economics with a massive double backflip with full pike-
Albanese government smacked ‘bang in the face’ by the laws of physics and economics (msn.com)
Popcorn time lefties.
How can government be so stupid and still function? This is madness.
Maybe they just don’t function…..? Maybe that is the master plan, dysfunctional governments.
‘You will ‘control’ nothing, and you will be happy’ UN instruction to world leaders (sic).. apparently.
Depends what you mean by “function”
Sir Jim Ratcliffe, writing in the Telegraph:
Ratcliffe is a significant figure in UK business, head of among other things Ineos Automotive, which makes, guess what, Land Rover replacements. Not powered by electricity!
Its interesting that a mainstream media outlet is publishing something so directly critical of the net zero rush. But before you get too excited, he buys into the idea that the energy transition is both needed and going to happen. And his main thrust is that EVs with range extenders are the solution. That is, an EV with a gasoline powered generator on board. Not a hybrid excactly, because all the drive still comes through the electric motors.
So its a crack in the facade, but not a very large one.
Well at least they’re beginning to have a bob each way reading the room. Here’s what the brains trust toasting away in their offices are trying to foist upon the productive sector-
The Great Van Test – To EV or not EV – Part 2 -Transit (youtube.com)
Welcome to milk floatery
“an EV with a gasoline powered generator on board”
wow, that’s bonkers! maybe put them in wind turbines too? 🙂
““an EV with a gasoline powered generator on board””
That is essentially what Toyota sells… a lot of.
A small problem, in the UK the steering wheel is on the ‘wrong’ side, limiting the countries where their petrol cars can sell. EV’s are tanking everywhere, nobody I talk to is interested in owning one.
Stop building and run down the inventory. Given the way UK VAT is applied to unsold inventory that problem will vanish in less than a year, tops.
Ah, the day of wrath, Dies Irae, It is coming. November 4.
Whats on Nov. 4?
duh!
Simpsons Day?
To be followed by November 5, Unboxing Day, as in “we just found all these boxes in the corner, and look what they’re full of…”
It will be Melbourne Cup day for North Americans.
That’s the day you will find your first facial hair !
Reality has to bite in the end, even if the ruling elite choose to ignore it.
As for all the EV fan boys out there, you have to be totally deluded if you think that the cost of running EVs will remain anywhere near current rates.
Oil prices have been relatively stable for years, petrol/gas costs rise because of theiving government taxes and duties, not because of annual increases in the cost of the source.
Electricity prices rise every year and when hour add in the necessary extra duties, start charging them road tax and stop the tax (avoidance) incentives, then no normal person will be able to to afford to run an EV, even if there was enough electricity to charge it!
It really is a mad world – something serious has got to give before we high a real disaster – so much ambition (delusion) and so little ability is the bread and butter of the ruling classes.
A nation can survive its fools, and even its ambitious, but it cannot survive traitors.
-Marcus Tullius Cicero
Story Tip:
Fortuitously, the Daily Sceptic has published this article. 😊
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/05/08/concerns-mount-over-exploding-electric-vehicles/
For me the best bit, is where a Norwegian ferry company, has banned EVs, Hybrids & Hydrogen.
I wonder how long it will be before UK ferry companies implement a similar policy.
Funny you mention the Norwegian ferry company banning EVs, Hybrids and Hydrogen cars as, according to the IEA, in March 2023 the first liquid hydrogen ferry in the world, the MF Hydra, began operation in Norway and the company is planning to operate two more from late 2024.
I wonder what Norwegian ferry users will think about that?
IEA ‘Global Hydrogen Review 2023’ (Revised version, Dec 2023)
Dave, they might be just trying to cover ‘the angles’ to enure they don’t ‘F’ up
The foregone revenues are actually invisible subsidies that will be taken away just as soon as possible – i.e., when there is no alternative.
Irina Slav and Tsvetana Paraskova are two excellent Bulgarian energy reporters featured at OilPrice,com One or more of their articles are included on my blog’s recommended reading list every weekday morning. They focus on news rather than predictions and opinions.
But the EV mania is not dead yet
Strong electric car (BEV and PHEV) sales in the first quarter of 2024 surpass the annual total from just four years ago. Electric car sales remained strong in the first quarter of 2024, surpassing those of the same period in 2023 by around 25% to reach more than 3 million.
While annual EV sales continue to grow in the U.S. market, the growth rate has slowed notably. Sales in Q1 rose 2.6% year over year, but fell 15.2% compared to Q4 2023. The increase last quarter was well below the previous two years.
Ford BEV sales April 2024 (YOY change):
Ford Mustang Mach-E: 4,893 (up 205%)
Ford F-150 Lightning: 2,090 (up 57%)
Ford E-Transit: 1,036 (up 86%)
Total: 8,019 (up 129%) and 4.7% share
In Apri 2024, Ford sold in the U.S. 8019 BEVs, 129% more than a year ago. The BEV share out of the brand’s total volume improved to 4.7%.
In April 2024, Ford also sold 60% more hybrid vehicles than in April 2023, as its total new-vehicle sales dipped 3%.
US 2023
Over 1.4M plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were sold in 2023, an increase of over 50% from 2022 sales.
What an odd argument.
Yes, governments have been encouraging EV sales. They hand out tens of thousands in subsidies and rebates for every sale. The media makes wild claims about CO2, and early adopters feel good about themselves.
That doesn’t change the fact that EVs are less convenient and a poor purchasing choice for people who need reliable transportation.
The secondary market for EVs is pretty much non-existent.
Of course sales are rising because it’s a relatively new product with low market penetration being pushed by government intervention.
I know accurate projections are difficult for people who believe in Mann’s hockey stick religion, but the only way EVs will survive is with even more drastic government intervention. And to make that work, they’re going to have to build an awful lot of new fossil fuel power plants or place a lot of restrictions on charging an EV.
It’s a failed technology, Richard. EVs aren’t working out. If you really care about the environment and really believe in your hockey stick religion, it’s time to admit it, scrap the EVs and put your money into research on new ideas for batteries.
Your solution is actually harming your own cause and making us even more reliant on the fossil fuels you claim are destroying the world.
YOU go buy one then, fool.
This month Hertz is selling 10,000 EVs..
Here’s your chance to get a really cheap second-hander to back up your inane garble.
While at the same time, GM apparently has decided to put even more into the Bolt, ditching the Malibu: https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2024/05/08/gm-end-production-chevy-malibu-evs/73617234007/
Guess we’ll see how that works out for them.
“….and sell these vehicles somewhere else.” That’s what China says too with their emission reduction which is actually emission increase.
“what governments are going to do about fuel duty income replacement if their EV plans panned out.”
They will raise the fuel taxes to push more people into BEVs and PHEVs.
EVs subsidized
ICE’s penalized
When thinking like a leftist fascist, there is no other alternative
That will happen and when 100% have transitioned to EVs and no ICE cars remain, the governments will collapse, the economy will collapse, the grid will collapse, and the EVs will become shelters for the homeless.
“ EVs will become shelters for the homeless.”
RG may own one by then.
Selling excess ICE vehicles in other countries is a solution that can only last a few years, if that long.
The reason is that most other countries have ICE production of their own that you are going to have to compete against.
The reality is that the total manufacturing will be reduced to the total number of EVs that the market will bear, plus the number of ICEVs that this number of EVs permit you to sell.
In other words, about 10% of current productions.
For many countries, this small number will not be enough to allow production at a profit, so most auto plants will close and a few countries provide all the cars needed by everyone in that region.