From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
The Met Office has taken to sending out forecasts of weather in three decades time, despite the fact that they are useless at forecasting more than a couple of days in advance!
To be fair, they do explain they are not actual forecasts on their blog:
You may have seen some of our forecasts that look a little further ahead than you would usually expect. Although they use the same graphics as our normal weather forecasts, we’ve been producing theoretical ‘forecasts’ for 2050 to look at what conditions we could expect to see in the UK if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.
One of the greatest challenges with communicating the risks of climate change is how to show, in a relatable way, how changes in our atmosphere could impact the weather we experience on the Earth’s surface. By showing what the weather could look like by 2050 at certain times of year, it helps people relate to how different their experiences might be under a changing climate.
To date we’ve produced plausible scenarios for a July 2050 heatwave, Wimbledon and Christmas 2054, and now we’ve examined how Glastonbury could look in 30 years’ time.
Plausible scenarios
The key aspect to these ‘forecasts’ is that they are plausible weather events for 2050. Of course, it isn’t possible to create a genuine weather forecast for 2050, however it is possible to generate a realistic forecast based on the atmospheric conditions projected for the future.
The future forecasts are based on climate projections using a high-emissions scenario. One of the biggest sources of uncertainty in climate change is how much the world manages to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the years to come. That’s why climate scientists model future global warming under various scenarios.
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Here’s that forecast for Glastonbury:
.The only trouble is that they are not in an way plausible.
For a start, the “high emissions” scenario, RCP 8.5 is simply not credible , as pretty everybody, except the BBC, admits. Using this scenario is purely designed to frighten people, and is reprehensible for a supposed public service body.
But more significant is the fact that their absurd forecast bears no relation to what has actually been happening to the UK climate.
For instance, their pretend forecast talks of 40C heatwaves in Doncaster, and for several days not just one. But the record temperature for Doncaster is only 35.5C. There is not the remotest chance of temperatures reaching 40C there.
In Central England it is a similar story, with a record of 34.2C, set in 2019. This was 0.8C higher than in 1990, and as the data shows was an outlier. Other than that temperatures since 1990 have failed to exceed that year or 1976:
There is always a chance of another outlier in future years, which may push the record up towards 35C. But to pretend that 40C heatwaves will become the norm is irresponsible, dishonest and disreputable.
Such claims have nothing to do with science, and are only designed for propaganda purposes. Hence the long winded lecture at the end of the video telling us we must all cut our emissions or else.
We might, of course, have a little bit more confidence in the Met Office predictions, if climate scientists had not assured us years ago that we would all be enjoying Mediterranean summers by now!
The inconvenient reality is that summers are still no hotter than in 1976, and even the boiler of 2018 was barely hotter than 1995:
Torremolinos? More like Frimpton-on-Sea!
And all those heat waves were caused by air from the Sahara desert reaching the UK because of a COLD depression over the Atlantic in front of Portugal and an High somewhere over Tunisia channeling that air directly in the direction of the UK.
The Met Office has been for many years now a puppet of the criminal organisation behind the curtain who can print all that is needed to corrupt/buy the system. Just like Boris J. who is everything he promised not to be. Not snow but Freedom is a thing of the past.
A Spanish Plume as it has been known for decades. Some even were honest enough to say that. The Met Office is now a government department as it is part of BEIS. And who on earth would believe the promises of a proven liar like Johnson? His own past shows he is a metropolitan liberal even before his latest bed-warmer came along.
The Met office are obviously ” climate deniers” as their weather map for the UK in 2050 shows the same outline as it is at present in 2022. Their fellow alarmists are constantly telling us that the sea will rise and submerge great swathes of the country. A recent article in the Guardian warned that all of Cornwall and the Seven Valley would be beneath the waves by 2050.
It’s 10.55am. The BBC is forecasting that at 11am the temperature where I live, in Scotland, will be 13 degrees C. Can we please have a bit of that global warming now, please, never mind in 2050.
London is roasting in another 18C scorcher…
“Britain hotter than Madrid as UK basks in 18C scorcher” – The Sun
Tell me that’s droll British sarcasm, please. Or are they really barking mad?
They are barking mad, indeed.
As young Ed Zuiderwijk says, they are barking mad.
Last week was above 32C here in the SE US (and warmer going west). Can you please send that 18C here?
If only it worked that way.
I can send you a doctored graph….
The Upper Midwest already sent you one cold front as we got down to 48°F (9°C)
Sunday night & will be sending you another one as it’ll repeat that here tonight.
Unfortunately, that cold gets converted to rain to keep the SE from catching fire. The
rain drops the Ts only a little bit but makes it a lot muggier. If the South returns the
favor in six months by sending up some warmer air, it will make it a bit warmer
before we get a lot of extra, wet snow followed by much colder temps. We just can’t
win for trying!
You must be on the coast or in the mountains. It was 40C along the Georgia – South Carolina border area.
18C?
We have the reverse cycle here at the Day Job set higher than that. Current room temp is about 24C.
3 out of the 4 work mates seated near me at the moment are wearing jackets. Indoors.
Sure, you become acclimatised to your normal environment, but… 18C? Seriously?
Come back to me when the forecast passes 40.
It’s 14:00 and now 14C here … I guess the Met Office will claim that as “yet more proof of global warming”
Rain ?
Are you sure their forecast for 11:00 am will be accurate? If it is anything like the Weather Channel here in the US, they couldn’t forecast 12:30 at 12:00 noon correctly, much less the temperature.
I wonder if any of these people have done Geography 101?
Two small Islands surrounded by a huge sea.
Those of us who have lived at the coast in different countries
know the huge impact the sea has on the weather and climate
compared to inland places far from the sea like land and sea breezes.
How different must have been the UK’s climate just 10k years ago when you could walk from France to the UK.
Illegal immigration was even worse in those days.
“…if climate scientists had not assured us years ago that we would all be enjoying Mediterranean summers by now!”
Followed by a clipping from 2005 talking about the next 50 years.
“The inconvenient reality is that summers are still no hotter than in 1976…”
Followed by a graph with a red line showing average summer max temperatures being almost 2°C warmer than in 1976.
“average summer max temperatures being almost 2°C warmer than in 1976.”
Were you there in 1976? I think not.
That’s why you credit such absurdities. No idea at all.
“Were you there in 1976?”
Yes.
Then you know what you claimed is utter garbage
Why do you bother?
Take it up with Paul Homewood. It’s his graph, it’s his choice of data, it’s his choice is smoothing.
The graph actually shows 1976 to be hotter than any Summer since.
And it was! fantabulosa
We had loadsa fun, the sky didn’t fall in…
The pubs did run out of beer, though.
I remember that which is odd because I was only 16 at the time.
I was 13 at the time, and the pubs would give us these little mini Heinieken beers. People putting their feet in the Round Pound in Hyde Park.
Round Pond.
But everything and everyone died … right?
So, you figure that since the average summer max went up almost 2C over the last fifty-six years, it’s reasonable to think it will go up much more than that in the next half that many years . . Why?
He won’t answer this reasonable question.
Wrong again.
I think you mean 46 years. But I’m not saying anything about the future, just pointing out the usual inaccuracies in Homewood’s article.
I’ve no idea if a max 40°C is plausible in 30 years time. I doub’t I’ll be around to find out. But that is not the same as Central England Temps. It just requires one spot anywhere inth UK to reach 40. That’s less than a couple of degrees warmer than the warmest recorded temperatures so far.
76 was indeed a scorcher the like of which one in living memory had seen. We baby boomers fondly recall that summer which as I recall also had record cereal yields despite a 3month drought. In the end a Minister for drought was appointed and the next day the rains came .
The red line is a 30 year average and indeed the seventies were noteable for chilly summers. Don’t forget that back then the climate doomsayers were prophesying the imminent return of a full ice age. The same individuals who are now telling us we will fry
Bath with a friend…
Official policy
“Save water – bath with a friend”.
Hmmm
“Save friends – bath with water” for some ….
But – yes that was a seriously hot summer for the southern UK.
Auto.
So you are admitting then that it is not CO2 since any affect of CO2 on the meaningless global average temperature comes from warmer nights and warmer winters, especially at high latitudes and over dry deserts.
climate- multivariate coupled non-linear chaotic system
Maybe this is why all those simplistic linear predictions & models fail! 😮
Bellend,
If you actually looked at the BBC story you would have seen this:
“This could rise to 6C by 2080 if current global warming trends continue. Meanwhile rainfall will be cut by a third”.
The globe has been warming at about .14 C per decade, land areas a bit more (but the land areas can’t keep warming much faster than the ocean). That means about 1 C of global warming by from 2005 to 2080, 1.5 C max. 6 C is off the charts alarmist. The BBC is promulgating an outright lie.
Same for rainfall – BBC is telling an outright lie.
Regarding the chart, Paul Homewood was correct in saying that summers now are no hotter than they were in 1976. You’ve been sucked in to the average argument – the average is going up because the coldest summers have gotten a little warmer, not because the hottest summers have gotten even hotter. That’s a good thing. You think it’s bad because, well, you’re an average sort of guy.
I wasn’t claiming anything about the accuracy of the 2005 BBC report beyond pointing out it was not claiming we should already have a Mediterranean climate as Homewood was alledging. 6 degrees by 2080 seems unlikely, and is not what the Met Office is suggesting.
It’s not a very good news report, with no actual sources cited, just “experts” say at some 2 day conference, so I can’t say if the BBC is accuratly reporting the experts or not. But as everyone keeps pointing out, you can’t simply assume a linear trend will continue at the same rate indefinitely.
Bellend, honest journalism requires interviewing a range of experts and reporting what they said. Since the BBC doesn’t do this, you ALREADY know that they’re dishonest. The fact that you ALREADY know but continue to support this dishonest alarmist advocacy is what makes you a bellend.
Ofcourse! Cities have grown much bigger and there is where they measure most temperatures.
Not even Greta could come up with garbage like that – not least because autistics don’t do lies, they simply don’t see the point.
What about, “The planet is on fire”?
How dare you!!!
Unfortunately, autistics are fairly easy to manipulate– not least because autistics don’t understand liars, they simply don’t see the point.
These climate people have a lot of front, or neck if you prefer. And they appear incapable of learning from previous ‘very public‘ mistakes.
2009
It was in April that the Met Office proclaimed the chances were ‘odds-on for a barbecue summer’. Rather like Michael Fish in October 1987, after he mockingly dismissed claims that a hurricane was on its way, the aptly-renamed ‘Wet Office’ was forced to confess its shortcomings yesterday.
‘Seasonal forecasting is still a new science,’ it said in defence. ‘It’s something we are still building on.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1202982/Met-Office-left-red-faced-Britains-forecast-barbecue-summer-turns-washout.html
And that remains true today. They are desperate for some kind of apocalyptic heatwave to strike and it just isn’t happening. I suppose a fantasy 2050 will have to do.
Exeter has more than its fair share of crazy people.
After the ‘barbeque Summer’ washout, I couldn’t believe there weren’t unruly mobs with pitchforks and torches marching on the Wet Office
–
Oh wait… I forgot… they couldn’t keep the torches lit.
😉
Alarmist BS!
Scary stuff, promising warmer weather to the Brits, lol!
Yeah, I really feel cheated – again.
At some point in the next twenty years, the BBC and it’s associated activities such as weather forecasting, will be put to one side as the real issue looming ever larger in society becomes too obvious to ignore.
That issue is the approaching decline of world population. The impact that will have on societies across the globe, will be so overwhelming, the odd nice summer day of sunshine they have been obsessing about this past twenty years, will not get a look in.
The BBC is on the way out anyway. Fewer and fewer people are willing to pay the TV licence fee.
I will vouch for that . A formerly great organisation corrupted from within by a woke and greedy management culture.
Their entertainment is crap too
The Biased Brainwashing Cult has an average audience age above retirement, so an audience fast dying out, yet it treats the only people watching it: older people, with total contempt and insults their values and contribution to the world every time they watch.
I don’t know what is more insane … the BBC’s death wish … or the people who still watch it.
They’ll whine to the government claiming that Britain can’t possibly survive without them, and the government will just start giving them money directly.
One other thing that is going to bite these forecasters in the buttocks is the continual upward adjustments of the temperature records to maintain the trend line. This is going to accentuate the drop when Earth cycles into its next cooling phase in earnest in the next few decades.
I would hope here in the US anyway that Congress and the next President can sign into a law that temperature records must be maintained as recorded. If someone wants to put adjustments into the data let them publish it as such, but keep the underlying recorded data unchanged.
What makes you think that the current records won’t be adjusted to “hide the decline”?
I have often forecast what my life style would be like in 2050 if I were to win $20,000,000 by then.
“$20,000,000 “
If I were you I’d multiply that by 5 at least
If I were you I’d multiply that by 5 at least
Which is exactly what the climate clowns are doing with temperatures
At the current rate of inflation, Tom, $20,000,000 in 2050 would mean “no change from present lifestyle”.
–
I wish I could put a winky on that, but it’s probably not far off the mark.
Unable to justify the truth they project into a future when they will not be here.
According to these academics, England’s 2050 weather probably won’t matter anyway:
“England Will Revert to Hunter-Gathering by 2040”: Met Office Leads Crowded Field in This Year’s Eco Crackpot Awards
2050? Try 2000…
“By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people…If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” —Dr. Paul Ehrlich, speech at the British Institute for Biology, Sep. 1971
Very plausible scenario, actually – under the assumption that the climate fascists continue in power.
They need to read and understand Pat Frank’s paper on GCM uncertainty.
I’m sitting here in Britain with a blanket over my shoulders because it’s so ****ing cold today. We should be getting a refund from the Met Office for their failure to deliver all that warming they promised would have occurred by now.
Yes, I am with you on that. I have put my winter fleece on today to do a few outdoor jobs. Very pleasant working environment but no sign of any global warming this side of the pond.
The “scientists” of today could be aptly and justifiably compared to the shamans and witch doctors of another age. Sometimes the latter were actually correct, which seems to elude the modern day mystics of AGW.
Irony, considering how “evolved” we have supposedly become!
The met office is joke, and a very nasty on at that ..
Yes – and I keep hearing how English wine is already comparable to the best that France can produce. Hmm, apart from the fact that the best I have tasted have been at least twice as expensive as equally good (or, more normally, much better) French wines, English producers nearly always have to use rather third rate grape varieties as well as using ridiculously high levels of dosage. As for the sparklers, well, they are four times the price of much better Cavas!
I might believe this stuff if I hadn’t seen these from earlier this month/year:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/07/model-vs-model-is-the-north-atlantic-current-collapsing/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/04/30/new-study-part-of-north-atlantic-is-coolingnatural-fluctuations-have-been-primary-reason/
They change their minds faster than a two-year old changes clothes!
The latest wails of doom usually are embellishments of whatever that is ‘bad’ that’s currently going on outside your windows. If nothing ‘bad’ is currently going on, they just keep quiet until the next upswing in “if it bleeds, it leads.”
Basically they are taking today’s forecast and adding a couple of degrees to it because that’s how much the models say the earth should have warmed by then?
No, today’s actual forecast max temperature is 18C in Glastonbury. They have used RPC8.5 and assumed a fierce heatwave.
Hmmm … 30 year “weather” forecast?
Why does this sound familiar?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/24/study-replacing-global-warming-with-weather-engages-climate-skeptics/
Marching orders issued. Marching orders followed.
From the MET Office link :
NB : The difference in the IPCC “projections” for GMST in 2050 between the “counterfactual” RCP8.5 and the “worst-case” RCP4.5 pathways is 0.5°C (see graph below). That is “much more than” the “dangerous / catastrophic” rise from the current “1.25°C above pre-industrial” to the proposed +1.5°C level.
From the “Final” version of the AR6 WG-I report, released at the beginning of May 2022, section 1.6.1.4, “The likelihood of reference scenarios, scenario uncertainty and storylines”, on page 239 :
NB : The “counterfactual” range in 2050 is “any anomaly greater than +2.2°C”.
The RCP8.5 anomaly in 2050 is almost +2.4°C …
So according to the IPCC the latest “worst-case, no additional mitigation policies” pathways are “RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and SSP2-4.5”.
Note that I have seen speculation that the new “most likely / realistic / plausible / not counterfactual” pathway is “probably” SSP4-3.4, but that claim is very much TBC !
The following graph should highlight just how “counterfactual” the MET Office using a “high-emission scenario” for anything in the 2050 timeframe really is.
If they are projecting such high temperatures as a consequence of higher CO2 levels, Happer and Wjingaarten have shown beyond reasonable doubt that such a consequence is simply not possible. If anyone knows of a phenomena that could be responsible please tell us
Well, this might not explain it all but leaving the windows open all night in a certain hearing room in DC back in 1988 might have something to do with it.
Military strategist may have dreamed of being able weaponize the weather.
“The Cause” has found a way without the military.
So I shouldn’t bother to pack a sweater for my 2050 trip to Glastonbury? Good to know.
I just ran across this book about England sea level rise— edited by John Humphreys, Sally Little. 2022. Challenges in estuarine and coastal science. Estuarine and Coastal Sciences Association. Interesting discussion about a new to me “Coastal Squeezes.”
Back in the late 1980s, early 1990s, when the Global Warming issue first started to become worthy of media attention, I remember the BBC Weather doing a similar thing. On that occasion, there was a forecast for a “typical” January day in 2015. Aberdeen was a balmy 13c and Glasgow 15c. London was sunny and in the high teens, while Reykjavick was 15c. Something like that anyway…..can’t remember the exact details.
Of course, we have seen temperatures occasionally into the teens in Scotland in January within the first couple of decades of the century but it has been far from “typical”!
There was also no mention of the possibility of one of the coldest winters in 50 years arriving in 2009/10!
Still, winters are a bit milder than they were back in the 80s, for sure up here in Scotland. Just not to the extent forecast by the BBC 30 or more years ago!
These weather Armageddon stories always bring to mind the wonderful city of Aberdeen South Dakota, USA. Having record low temperature of -43C and a record high of 46C one would think this city would be a tiny climate ravaged outpost clinging to life on the northern prairie but nothing could be further from the truth. Aberdeen is a normal bustling city of over 28,000 residents with schools, hospitals, restaurants, hotels and everything else one would expect to find in a normal American city. It is my hope Aberdeen residents remain unaware of the deadly climate they live in and continue to enjoy their fine city.
What a picture. Mainland Europe is green while the UK and Ireland are scorched.
The CET is really interesting if you look at just June 22
CET is great, well verified vs historical events – volcanic eruptions, freezing of the Thames etc.
May and June CET are good months to rebut alarmists – graphs below of the average for the whole of the month.
The max temperature records are from 1833 and 1846, they are big outliers, unlikely to get beaten anytime soon.
You could be accused of cherry picking, Annual/July/August CET slope up for 1980+, no point denying it, my favourite phrase is “thermometer watching” for those who care about 0.5C
MetO alleged scientist risk total meltdown if UK temperatures ever get close to 1833-1846 records.
The image provided CLEARLY shows the danger of Brexit.
The British Isles is pipping hot red, while the EU across the Channel is a nice livable green.
EU for the WIN.
/snark
Funny how only UK is affected by such a heatwave and none of the neighbouring countries (except Ireland, that they consider belonging to UK)…
We have similar issues here in the states where weather maps frequently delete Canada and Mexico.
Since much of our weather comes from Canada, that prevents gauging approaching and blocking weather fronts.
“Climate change” is always wrong forecasts of the future climate.
So why not wrong forecasts of the future weather too?
The future weather will get worse, unless it gets better.
That’s my new prediction.
My old prediction from 1997:
The climate will get warmer, unless it gets colder.
Second hottest summer after 1976 in the CET record — 1826.
You are correct about summer 1826, but don’t get too attached to that record, 2018 is catching up fast…
They adjusted the CET data in May 2022.
Compare v.2.0 to legacy
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_seasonal.txt
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/legacy/data/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/HadCET_v2_guidance_notes.pdf
They gave 2006-2021 an extra +0.036C. Summer 2018 was promoted from #5 to #3, another flick of the pen and 1826 will get demoted.
The winter record high CET was 1869, a 150 yr old record, but on the new method it’s 2016, with 1869 downgraded to #2
Of course maybe all the adjustments are scientifically justified and I’m just paranoid.
Thanks James, I saw some changes when I was updating my CET spreadsheet. They can lie and cheat all they want, I’ll keep the original records. 1976 is so much of an outlier, I wonder what they will do to change that? BR John