Essay by Eric Worrall
But we still need to act immediately.
Sorry, climate change is still dangerous, no matter what nonsense Trump emits
By Genevieve Guenther, Michael E. Mann | Opinion | May 22, 2026
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“After 15 years of Dumocrats promising that ‘Climate Change’ is going to destroy the Planet, the United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!” Trump wrote, quite incorrectly, on Truth Social. “Unlike the Dumocrats, who use Climate Alarmism nonsense to push their Green New Scam, my Administration will always be based on TRUTH, SCIENCE, and FACT!”
Even in light of the Trump administration’s gutting of American science and the president’s well-documented reckless disregard for the truth, this post stands out as patently, particularly absurd. But Trump’s new climate-denial talking point is a weaponized version of new developments in climate science. Trump’s typically bombastic disinformation—if casually combined with a real debate within the climate community about one climate projection—will muddy the public understanding of science enough that Americans on both sides of the aisle might be left with an incorrect and dangerous belief that they no longer need to worry about the climate crisis.
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The new high-emissions scenario hypothesizes a backsliding of progress, where current climate policies are rolled back, clean-energy development slows, and fossil-fuel use expands. This scenario leads most likely to a temperature rise of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, but the range of possible heating by that date spans from 2.5 degrees to 4.3 degrees Celsius. The scenario also projects more heating after 2100, since global emissions fail to shrink to net zero. Indeed, the new high-emissions scenario projects that the world could heat up to RCP8.5’s 5 degrees Celsius by 2150, just 50 years later.
Read more: https://thebulletin.org/2026/05/sorry-climate-change-is-still-dangerous-no-matter-what-nonsense-trump-emits/
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Sooo – its still an urgent emergency we have to deal with right now, even though thermageddon has been deferred by at least 50 years?
For a long time I’ve been relishing the prospect of Michael Mann having to publicly downgrade his climate claims, but now that moment has arrived, I don’t feel the satisfaction I thought I would feel. The damage done to the global economy by these clowns – decades of stunted economic growth – is too great to feel happiness at a grudging admission their predictions were too extreme.
Even sadder that Mann has chosen to cling to the tattered remnants of his mantle of alarmism, instead of coming clean and properly admitting he was completely wrong. To paraphrase Gandalf in Lord of the Rings during the confrontation with the defeated wizard Saruman, even now Mann could have done some good, by following climate alarmist James Lovelock’s footsteps and admitting climate alarmism was a mistake. Such an admission might have helped to reduce the suffering in backwards outposts of climate ignorance like the European Union, by accelerating their awakening from their Net Zero nightmare.
But Michael Mann, as always, in my opinion has placed his personal vanity ahead of attempting any kind of restitution for all the harm his “hide the decline” hockey stick climate alarmism has caused over the years.
Please understand that Dr. Michael E. Mann is never wrong. Just ignore him.
He epitomizes left wing rejection of empirical reality. Their egos can’t fathom that they could be wrong due to superiority complexes. That personality defect incapacitates them from self examination or examination of any evidence contrary to their delusions.
Anyone using the preposterous climate crisis propaganda slogan needs to be outed as an idiot.
[“He epitomizes left wing rejection of empirical reality. Their egos can’t fathom that they could be wrong due to superiority complexes. That personality defect incapacitates them from self examination or examination of any evidence contrary to their delusions.“]
That’s not just a left-wing personality defect; it’s symptomatic of almost all political players. ( & we have 1,000s of years of empirical data that confirms this … history.)
If he were an Autobot he’d be Pessimist Prime.
Not an Autobot, he’d be a Decepticon.
Worral says Dr Mann has never been wrong. Wirral has been waiting for years to try to find something Dr Mann was wrong about
No, I knew Mann was wrong, that is why I was relishing him having to publicly downgrade his alarmism.
Mike was wrong 20 years ago; you have a lot of catching up to do.
“Worral says Dr Mann has never been wrong.”
Eric said absolutely NOTHING remotely resembling that.
Your head is in fantasy la-la land. !
CO2 DRIVES PLANT GROWTH. NOTHING ELSE.
The word “everything” comes to mind.
Get lost, stinking troll.
Always amused how the “woke again” flock worshipping at the altar of the “Church of Warming” will accept any sermon they are preached.
He’s not wrong – his predictions / forecasts / projections are merely off a bit on the timing.
His deliberate distortion of reality.
You forgot the “/sarc” tag.
That explains the “down votes”.
What is the timescale of the error? Eons?
“The projection is strong with this one (Mann).”
To the Pillory with the Projectionist
Hmm. So according to Dr. Mann, if he is to no longer consider an erroneously high set of inputs to his and others climate modeling work, we gain 50 years of a benign climate. How can cancelling that which never was and never could be have any influence on our actual climate? Why not simply cancel all data regarding use of fossil fuels and we will be ok forever at least in Dr. Mann’s mind, such as it is.
So cancel the next RCP .
That gives us another 50 years !
Ezepeezy !
😉 😉
They will cancel the next RCP – but only in 50 years,
and whoever is next at the top to succeed the serial liar dynasty of Ehrlich>Hansen>Mann
will be so gentle,humble and godlike to give us another 50 years.
But here is the interesting and very Marxist thing that is very odd within the context.
No matter what these “progressive scientists” claim,
they always ignore the progress of science.
No matter the scenario they come up with,
they NEVER ever consider the possibility that science can reach a level to protect us from negative climate impacts.
We’ve been already to the moon, by 2075 we may have reached Mars – but an increase of 3-4 degrees will kill us all – on a planet where the fastest growing and richest countries are located in the hottest regions on earth – the Emirates.
The fact that they ignore scientific progress to counter climate change is proof that this is about deindustrialization – it has nothing to do with climate.
“They will cancel the next RCP – but only in 50 years,
and whoever is next at the top to succeed the serial liar dynasty of Ehrlich>Hansen>Mann”
Don’t forget Phil Jones and his bastardization of the written temperature record. His particular bastardization of the temperature record is why a lot of people think we are experiencing unprecedented heat today.
Ole Phil demoted past high temperature periods such as the 1880’s and 1930’s to make them appear to be cooler than today, when, in reality, those times were just as warm as it is today. So even though there is more CO2 in the air today, it is no warmer today than in the recorded past.
That’s what Phil wanted to eliminate from the conversation. One can’t have a decent climate crisis without unprecedented heat, so Phil decided to provide us some by distorting the temperature record.
The written, unmodified temperature records from around the world directly refute the Phil Jones instrument-era Hockey Stick chart bastardization. They represent two different worlds. One represents reality and the other represents the Lie of the Century.
Thx – I have been a Phil Jones illiterate until now.
“global warming” is all about control of power and resources. Power to the united nation so they can dictate global economy. The failure of any predicted calamity to take place only incites the “true believers” to further heights of histrionics, hoping to cultivate additional followers to the cult.
I’ve been saying for years that co2 control is control of economy.
Who controls the spice controls the Universe and our planets spice is the trinity of
of energy(fuel,food etc)information (news,narrative,science,politics)
and money(bis,cbdc,cryptos)
50 years ago we were worried about the coming ice age.
mann should be made to prove any of his predictions of climatological doom to have come about in the time span of the prediction.
No, this nonsense has been fully addressed many times, there is NO climate emergency developing.
Where Is The “Climate Emergency”?
LINK
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What an irrational Mann he is……..
Humanity has successfully decoupled itself from negative impacts of “climate” and environment at least 4 decades ago.
The number of environmentaly related deaths went down by 95% ( before inflation = population adjustment; in this case around 99%) since the perfect > 300 ppm era.
The only dangerous thing by now is the destruction of cheap energy that ‘ll bring us back to the bad old times.
Climate Change is irrelevant.
The dangerous things are people like Mann and the energy transition they are justifying with
climate change.
nit:
justifying with climate change ALARMISM.
The great Mann-ipulator
Mann-splaining is a science of its own.
President Trump didn’t declare RCP8.5 and its ilk implausible. That was the IPCC. Wrong again, Dr Mann.
Good point.
But he’s paid well.
Mann is a tree ring guy…his findings an outlier compared to Briffa’s work on the same subject…presented by an agency who has everything to gain by hyperbole.
Has Mann released his data that supports his hockey stick illusion yet.?
Once you go back much before 1900, CO2 was the restraining factor in tree growth
(we have all seen those Idso trees grown at different CO2 levels)
That means that even if Mickey’s fauxy-stick graph wasn’t a bad case of statistical maleficence, it would still only be a graph of CO2 growth effect, not temperature.
If the CO2 constrained tree rings are removed from the mix you get a much more realistic graph from a historical point of view.
Glad you mentioned Briffa.
Here is his data since 1900….
.. as mentioned above, anything much before 1900 has its growth constrained by lower CO2 levels.
Biffa’s chart looks just like the U.S. regional chart (Hansen 1999).
The U.S. chart shows a high point in the 1930’s and a low point in the 1970’s, and shows it was just as warm in the 1930’s as it is today (1998, 2016, 2024). CO2 has had no visible effect on U.S. temperatures even though there is more CO2 in the air today than there was in the 1930’s.
CO2 is a nothing burger.
Mann’s identity and power, personal as well as professional and social, requires a “hair-on-fire” narrative. A calm, results oriented, incremental progress, pragmatic approach reconciling economics and social good with environmental health would stop his religious crusade in its tracks.
This goes for all of the alarmists. The panic must be maintained to justify their draconian, personally expensive and restrictive demands. I’m surprised, actually, that he “points out” the catastrophe is only delayed 50 years to 2150. 2100 was a threat to only the youngest currently alive; 2150 is a threat to only those born in 2090 or later!
And he is now indirectly saying the obvious, bad impacts if climate change are also delayed another 50 years! The catastrophe he and they want to claim today can’t be happening if the deep fear of current changes only brings disaster – previously determined for 2100 – th 2150.
But meantime Mann keeps his job and his importance. Good for him. I wonder what Gore Sr. says: his movie was predicated on 8.5 in the near future. But Ehrlich was not discomforted or criticized by the faithful with his failures, but said his outcome is valid, his timing was just off. He was a visionary prophet like old time end of timers: so goes Mann and Gore, I expect.
“Hair on fire” would leaven out Mann.
CO2 has been increasing steadily for years yet temperatures have cooled by 0.5C since early 2024.
That should cast doubt on Mann’s speculation about CO2 and temperature. The temperatures are not behaving the way he thinks.
Who is the denier now, Michael?
“This scenario leads most likely to a temperature rise of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by 2100”
He is well beyond denial and well into psychotic delusion. Impossible for CO2 to accelerate the rate of warming we have seen. It declines in its ability to cause further warming as it increases in volume.
change …in volume to…concentration. The saturation of the absorption of out-going IR light occurs at ca. 300 ppmv which occurred in ca 1920.
Exactly one year ago today – May 23, 2025 – President Trump’s Executive Order “Restoring Gold Standard Science” stated this requirement in Section 4(c):
“When using scientific information in agency decision-making, employees shall transparently acknowledge and document uncertainties, including how uncertainty propagates throughout any models used in the analysis.”
I have no idea who initiated this provision, or to what depth the President himself was briefed on its plain implications for the decades and billions-of-dollars-worth of climate modeling using time-step-iterated computed simulations. But properly understood, this provision obliterates the model-based claims of Dr. Mann, the IPCC, and all the agencies worldwide that keep yammering about climate “danger” from emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and other trace IR-active gases.
Have the scientists promoting the “climate” scare answered to the failure to have acknowledged the rapid buildup of uncertainty in the modeled temperature projections? Not a peep, as far as I am aware.
Every skeptic of climate alarm would do well to appreciate that it is the accepted methods of expressing uncertainty that are the basis of this requirement. It’s not agenda-driven.
Start with Pat Frank’s 2019 paper here. “Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections” https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/earth-science/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00223/full
And please consider taking a few minutes to read this pdf. From last year. I thought Grok 3 did a great job with this analysis of propagated uncertainty. I asked first about the authoritative guidance and then posed an exercise based on the published value of a single source of uncertainty external to the models. The answer: there is about +/- 4 deg C uncertainty (95% confidence basis) after just one year of time-step-iterated computation. This assumes a model with perfect internal fidelity to the climate system’s response to “forcing.”
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j56NA0qRZvVMdosxjzOkLoXvwbKg9Ds1/view?usp=drive_link
There. No matter which model, or which scenario, and no matter how long emissions continue, NO SCIENTIST has ever produced a reliable projection of climate response using a time-step-iterated simulation.
Thank you for listening.
Mr. Dibble, you used a solar irradiance of 1,361 w/m^2. I understand that that is the value which is measured at the equator above the atmosphere at high noon. Considering pole to pole variations, the rotation of the earth and the albedo of the earth and its atmosphere the average is more like 340 w/m^2. I am not knowledgeable enough to know whether that is meaningful to your Groks assessment. Is it?
Thank you for your question. The analysis uses the published +/- 0.13 W/m^2 uncertainty on the basis of the 340 W/m^2 geometric average of TSI over the spherical surface. (This is 1,361 +/- 0.5 W/m^2 divided by 4.) Also please note that the 1,361 W/m^2 value applies to the entire circular area presented by the Earth to intercept the sunshine. In any case, the key number is the +/- 0.13 W/m^2 uncertainty. The 340 and 1361 values are not needed and are not used in the analysis.
The propagation of uncertainty relies on proven quantities, not the absolute value. Note, multiplication/division in a functional description does require knowing an absolute value to calculate a percentage. However, the fundamental practice of adding the uncertainties of each input value still exists.
In climate science that uncertainty begins with the daily average. It is never propagated and not even discussed. NIST TN 1900 calculates a ±1.8°C expanded uncertainty ((95%) for a typical monthly average of Tmax, but assumes that there is no daily uncertainty. Can you imagine what Tmin would be? And, the total when combined?
If models can truly anticipate values in a chaotic system, then it is a given that initial values must be not only correct, but accurate. With these levels of uncertainty, that is a joke.
Spot on, David. Thank you for speaking out!
Thank you for your reply. It will be a long road ahead to counter the decades of unsound claims.
“Gold Standard Science” It’s pretty bad when a politician has to define science for the scientific community. Whatever Mann’s diagnosis is, there has been the rise of teaching policy for science. I’ve mentioned this about the ‘research honor’ society Sigma Xi which is guilty. Why any scientist wants to ‘run things’ is beyond me but I’ve known more than a few. Maybe a sign of lack of some maturity, kids have to learn about mistakes which can be bad but not so bad as not admitting and learning from them.
My major mentor ran a successful large for the times project but stayed an award winning teacher and researcher. I found his quote after he died which basically said it’s not our job to decide right or wrong, other professions make the difficult value determinations. Had Mann ever been embarrassed by an “unintended consequence” or had such opportunity to “show off?” He certainly didn’t maintain the juvenile curiosity.
Michael Mann lost any credibility he might have had many years ago. Only a fool keeps bloviating when his foot is firmly entrenched in his mouth. My climate prediction for what it is worth–before the world sees 2100, the big climate scare will have reverted back to the glaciers are coming once again.
Glaciers have been retreating.
As has been happening in natural cycles for millenia.
But now that the Climate Industrial Complex gravy flow is retreating, well, THAT’s cause for alarming concern, fear and trepidation for “The Cause”.
I was tongue in cheek referring to the 70’s scare before a slight increase in temp ended the coming ice age and brought us boiling oceans. Nothing but natural cycles used by the PTB to keep the peons scared to death, clamoring for government to do whatever necessary to save our sorry butts.
Indeed. I believe it was the late Ivar Giaever who destroyed Mann’s hockey stick claim when he pointed out that if one simply continues Mann’s tree ring data beyond the point where he spliced in supposed thermometer measurements, it shows the temperature continuing to decline; no hockey stick.
The sliced-in thermometer measurements are what shows the temperatures going higher and higher, thanks to Phil Jones bastardization of the written temperature record.
Michael Mann’s contribution was to delete from the record previous warm periods, such as the Roman Warm Period, to make it appear as if there were no warm periods in the past similar to today, and the warmth only started after humans started using fossil fuels.
So Mann wipes out any warm periods before the temperatures are written down, and Phil Jones wipes out the warm periods in the written temperature records, and that leaves us with a bogus, bastardized temperature record that makes it appear that we are experiencing unprecedented heat today. Just what these bastardizers wanted us to think.
But history rufutes both the Mann bastardization and the Phil Jones bastardization.
The Truth is it is no warmer today than it has been in the past. There is no unprecedented warming. More CO2 has Not resulted in higher temperatures.
We have been lied to, people. A Very costly lie.
Everyone arguing today about heating in the future will be dead by then, so it doesn’t really matter what actually happens. The future does not belong to the present, and those that think it does suffer from extreme hubris and narcissism.
At what point in the future will narcissistic people start to worry about the coming re-glaciation?
The co-author, Genevieve Guenther, has found something to do with a English degree — become a climate dufus.
Fifty years is long enough to heal and forget…and to be swindled all over again!
“…..but we got rich off of it while it lasted.”
“It ain’t over till it’s over” Yogi Berra
Characters like this who abandoned science for celebrity never abandoned their position. Ales Hrdlicka Director of the Smithsonian anthropology department went to his grave, still insisting that humans could not have been in the American continent prior to 3000 years ago. In many ways, he was Mann’s prototype. Using the bully puppet of the Smithsonian to destroy careers of other with heretical ideas as he viewed them.
Thanks for the note to Hrdlicka. What a pleasant dude! He does beat Mann for looks.
He should have bought a vowel.
The late abandonment of a scenario discredited for years is being hailed as an “advance in climate science.” This renunciation proves to the whole world that the debate is still open, contrary to what the denialists claim! Take that.
The boiling of the oceans — that must be something. Just imagine: all the birds in the sky steamed alive.
… So many unbelievable stories, my God.
If only climate modelers could take a long break during the next Hollywood writers’ strike. Or give up writing fiction altogether and pull themselves out of their labs to experience the real world, where oceans do not evaporate and billions of people have been lifted out of poverty by the progress of science and technology.
Beautiful! I love it.
“Science means doubting, checking, re-hypothesizing….”
Your enthusiasm excites me too! 🙂
All bodies of water evaporate. No?
It’s a fact. But the politicians’ hyperbolic rhetoric (like Guterres’ “boiling point”) transcends the boring physics we observe every day…
Mikey will never mann-up…
RCP 8.5 was a fairy tale. Why would cancelling a fairy tale cause the goalposts of mankind’s destruction to be pushed out yet another 50 years … later than it was otherwise supposed to occur?
Any scenario based on CO2 emissions is a fairy-tale.
That is my question.
How does eliminating a scenario change reality unless reality was really a fiction based on a discredited scenario.
No. Mann simply doesn’t have the astuteness to comprehend that his game is up. He was and remains the best illustration of the answer to the question ‘why is climate science in such a poor state?’. Which is that, with a few notable exceptions, it are not the brightest in the class that become ‘climate scientist’.
Never underestimate Mikey. He knows the difficulty climate fantasy is in. But he is applying the Goebbels method vigorously. “Any lie repeated often enough is taken as truth.” Mikey knows that all he and the rest of his gang of intellectual thugs need to do is put out enough convincing garbage for their own AGW acolytes.
LIke any religious cult in difficulty, this is about retaining the core of true believers in the hopes that a Democrat rival can turn things around. What a Trump administration demolished by Presidential decree can be reestablished by a Democrat administration.
Note some of the wording here: “could rise”, “possible heating”, “could heat up to”, and the projections are as far ahead as 2150 into the bargain. Except these phrases were being used back in the 1970s, and the numbers never materialized even though global emissions and fossil fuel use have risen steadily since 1990. So do the alarmists actually believe that anyone is going to take them seriously this time around?
Sadly, yes.
Sadly, there will be some that do.
You use a logical fallacy known as a “straw-man” You make false claims based on a quote you either misunderstand or deliberately lie about. And the sheep will eat it up. Deniers are idiots
No fake claims or logical fallacies made by Eric.
Only deliberate lie comes from Mickey Mann.
You swallowed his faux science, because you have no scientific understanding of your own.
Only “denier” here is YOU. !
I am denier of “climate change” because most of the earth’s climate is water, ice and snow. The term “climate change” has no meaning for a region of the earth unless the criteria for climate change is defined. For example, what is the criteria for climate change for the Atacama desert?
Exactly, Mann is an idiot.
Science is presently correcting itself but it’ll be a slow process.
One of the corrections has undermined a pillar of the belief of climate alarmism and that is that the science was settled. Well its been invalid all this time because its been based on a flawed assumption.
Results from calculations using RCP8.5 have been pervasively used throughout the papers of climate science and they’re all now deemed incorrect.
The only thing “settled” about the science now is that its at the bottom of a hole, waiting to be buried, Eric.
“For a long time I’ve been relishing the prospect of Michael Mann having to publicly downgrade his climate claims”
Worrall admits Dr Mann has been correct and the Hockey Stick is reality.
What an incredibly stupid comment to make. !
Nowhere does Eric say anything remotely resembling your comment.
The Faux-stick is a BOGUS as it gets !!
I quoted Worrall. Pay attention
And still totally misunderstood what Eric said.
Is English your 3rd or 4th language. .. because English comprehension is huge FAIL for you.
Worrall admits Dr Mann has been correct and the Hockey Stick is reality.
Nice try. I never suggested this would be the last downgrade to Mann’s climate alarmism, and strongly suggested Mann should come clean and admit he was completely wrong, like James Lovelock.
“You use a logical fallacy known as a “straw-man”
And so you did.
straw-back mountain Mann. Similar to broke back mountain mann. That Mann has been shoveling horse puckey for too long.
lol….it’s like safe and effective
Trump really does sound like an idiot
So do you. But don’t feel as if you are all alone.
Hahaha you thought Joe had a sound mind…are you Simon?
Important as well to remember trump has raped children. And people like Worral defend the raper of children
Wait. I thought the Epstein files were suppressed. How did you get this info nobody else has?
If you don’t know about it, you haven’t been paying attention
You’re right. I for one never pay attention to leftist lies.
Your pants are on fire!
You’ll have tested evidence for this assertion of course?
(thought not)
FLAT OUT LIE. !! Backed by absolutely ZERO evidence.
Did you know that Trump was actually one of the people who helped exposed Epstein’s behaviour ! Epstein hated Trump because of that.
Epstein was a top Democrat supporter, and donated a lot of money to them..
That is where his real “friends” are!
But Al Gore said it was 10 years, 20+ years ago. Now it is 120 years from the present. I bet we could find engineering and tech solution to deal with issues that arise.
The claim a slow moving change which won’t manifest until next century is any kind of emergency is absurd. Well before then we’ll have figured out nuclear fusion or have gotten used to modular nuclear or there will be some other solution we can’t see yet.
Simple. We’ll just need to cut out enough still-beating hearts and all will be well.