Ross McKitrick: The 2030 emissions plan: Canada’s gift to Putin

From the Financial Post

The sad reality is that the federal government does not care what its climate plans will cost people

You might have thought the Russo-Ukrainian War would have convinced the Trudeau government to hit pause on its climate-change plans. Europeans are suddenly desperate to find other sources of energy so they can scale back imports from Russia. We can’t help them, unfortunately, because of our long embrace of the don’t-build-anything-anywhere school of economic development. But the United States can, using its liquified natural gas (LNG) export infrastructure. That means the U.S. must import more to make up for what it diverts out of its domestic market. Where will they look? To us, among other places. That’s what we used to call an opportunity.

Not anymore. Instead, Ottawa has just released a 271-page Emission Reduction Plan (ERP) that calls on our oil and gas sector to cut emissions by 31 per cent below 2005 levels in the next eight years, which is 42 per cent below current levels. It also wants the sector to get to “net-zero” by 2050. Given the current technological limits of carbon capture and other buzzwords, that means either ceasing operations altogether or using production methods that will price producers out of the world market — thus leaving a clear field for Russia, among others, to expand its dominance in world energy markets in the years ahead. Global emissions won’t decline mind you; people will just get their energy from dictators while democracies such as Canada exit the market.

https://financialpost.com/opinion/ross-mckitrick-the-2030-emissions-plan-canadas-gift-to-putin

Read the rest here.

HT/Cam_S

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April 1, 2022 10:26 pm

Our leaders are insane.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
April 1, 2022 11:17 pm

We’re, the majority of the population anyway, culpable by not understanding what the end result of their policies will be. Only a very small minority have been aware of the problem

StephenP
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
April 2, 2022 12:47 am

Just imagine, if the Keystone pipeline was operational and fracking and oil drilling had continued as before, not only would we have been able to tell Mr P to take a running jump, but would be in better economic shape.
Best of all it would be likely to have reduced CO2 emmisions, partly through reduced need to transport fuels halfway around the world, but especially if SMRs were not hamstrung by objections and bureaucracy at every stage of development.

b.nice
Reply to  StephenP
April 2, 2022 12:52 am

“if the Keystone pipeline was operational and fracking and oil drilling had continued as before”

If those things had happened, and Germany hadn’t shut down most of their internal energy production….

… Putin wouldn’t have been a position to occupy Ukraine anyway.

n.n
Reply to  b.nice
April 2, 2022 9:24 am

Eight years since the Biden/Maidan/Slavic Spring (i.e. coup without cause and forward-looking collateral damage). Two years since the current regime took power. Meanwhile, Russia, China, India, perhaps Germany, threaten the reserve status of the dollar, which combined with labor and environmental arbitrage, would force catastrophic anthropogenic progressive prices in the very nations behind the Spring and sanctions. Karmic irony.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  n.n
April 2, 2022 4:10 pm

Yes, but if you even hint around here that there might be the slightest thing amiss with our foreign policy, you’ll get jumped on.

MarkW
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
April 2, 2022 6:18 pm

You’ve been doing a lot more than hinting. And none of it accurate.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  MarkW
April 2, 2022 6:54 pm

Care to point out anything I’ve said about US foreign policy that’s not accurate?

Derg
Reply to  StephenP
April 2, 2022 2:52 am

Just the way China likes it.

Reply to  StephenP
April 2, 2022 7:23 am

Germany, the UK, Netherlands are sitting on vast reserves of shale gas. But the Greens rule. The Dutch are shutting down their Groningen gas field. The UK has shut down most of the North Sea production and prohibits fracking on land even though England gas reserve estimates vary between 4 and 65 trillion m3 and Scotland 1.4 to 3.8 trillion m3. Reports suggest Germany has a large shale gas potential of 700 to 2268 billion m3. German Greens prefer wind turbines.All these countries are scared of their “NIMBYs” and outsource what they see as the dirty business of gas extraction to despots who can blackmail them.Now that they are being blackmailed and prices are skyrocketing, they still refuse to consider the gas under their feet. Instead, they are looking for alternative despots in the Middle East.Crazy!

Hari Seldon
Reply to  Kirschberg
April 2, 2022 8:16 am

As far as I see, Mr. Putin will not blackmail anybody: The Russians would be ready to deliver Gas immediately to Germany over Northstream 2, but the US blackmails the Germans not to open Northstream 2.

n.n
Reply to  Hari Seldon
April 2, 2022 9:26 am

Commerce, perhaps a human interest, genuine interest. It’s difficult to discern in the modern socioeconomic model.

Richard Page
Reply to  Hari Seldon
April 2, 2022 9:36 am

Putin never got the chance to use Nordstream 2 as leverage; whether he would have tried, or not, is sheer speculation now. The question is, how exactly did the US ‘blackmail’ Germany? The answer is that they didn’t, it simply wasn’t necessary or desirable and saying it’s so doesn’t make it that way.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Richard Page
April 2, 2022 4:21 pm

‘The question is, how exactly did the US ‘blackmail’ Germany?’

I’m not a Wikipedia fan, but clearly the US has been impeding NSII for a while –

‘In January 2019, the US ambassador in Germany, Richard Grenell, sent letters to companies involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 urging them to stop working on the project and threatening with the possibility of sanctions.[33] In December 2019, the US Congress approved sanctions on companies and governments working on the pipeline, to which German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas responded, urging the US not to meddle in European energy policy.[34] Following the US Senate’s vote to override the Trump administration’s defense bill containing punitive measures on the pipeline, the US State Department alerted companies of sanctions risk they face, urging them to pull out from the project.’

But never mind –

‘On May 19, 2021, the United States President Joe Biden waived sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG and its CEO Matthias Warnig, in a move that was opposed by both Republican and Democratic lawmakers,[37][38] with Republican senator Jim Risch saying it was “a gift to Putin and will only weaken the United States”.’

MarkW
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
April 2, 2022 6:20 pm

Saying that the US won’t help build it is hardly blackmailing.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  MarkW
April 2, 2022 7:03 pm

‘Saying that the US won’t help build it is hardly blackmailing.’

You should read my response again, this time for comprehension. Here’s part of it, below:

‘…the US ambassador in Germany …sent letters to companies involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 urging them to stop working on the project and threatening with the possibility of sanctions.’

MarkW
Reply to  Hari Seldon
April 2, 2022 6:19 pm

Care to specify how exactly the US has been blackmailing Germany?

DMA
Reply to  StephenP
April 2, 2022 2:11 pm

“Best of all it would be likely to have reduced CO2 emmisions,”
Actually there is no benefit in reducing CO2 emissions. The other possibilities would have been positive.

Elle Webber
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
April 1, 2022 11:43 pm

Or evil.

Steve Case
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
April 2, 2022 12:11 am

Name calling isn’t the way to win arguments, but as things progress regarding the climate change juggernaut it seems to be more and more reasonable as time goes by.

Yes our heads of state are insane, and a collective “What have I done?” Colonel Nicholson (Alec Guinness) moment isn’t likely to occur any time soon.

Derg
Reply to  Steve Case
April 2, 2022 2:56 am

Wow! The Bridge Over The River Kwai PERFECTLY describes politicians supporting Net Zero.

Well done.

I am not sure millennials have a similar film.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Derg
April 2, 2022 1:23 pm

Yes, I agree, the perfect reference!

Gunga Din
Reply to  Derg
April 2, 2022 2:57 pm

“Age of Ultron”? (Minus “The Avengers”)

michel
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
April 2, 2022 1:03 am

Yes. Its a particular form of insanity. They seem unable to reason consecutively.

So we have as in this case people proposing to do things in the name of global climate that can have no effect on it. Sometimes they propose doing things for environmental reasons which are very destructive of the environment.

Sometimes, as in the UK at the moment, they propose doing things which will obviously simply not work – as when they propose to lower dependence on gas generation by installing huge numbers of on and off-shore wind turbines. You cannot reduce dependence on gas by doing that, you can only increase it.

Or when they want to convert natural gas to hydrogen to reduce emissions, when they have no hydrogen, no grid that can deliver it, and no house piping or applicances that can use it. And when the only source of the hydrogen, on the scale they propose to burn, is the very natural gas they are trying to escape from.

It is not just about climate and energy, either. On any topic connected to race or gender you will also find the same lack of rigor or consequential reasoning. It is also not simply among politicians, journalists and public intellectuals – you can find examples in the courts and judiciary.

Its very mysterious why this has happened in the last 20 years on such a scale. Presumably it has roots in education? Or is it the instant culture, when people have forgotten or never been taught how to read closely and argue a position through, and have just come to automatically accept things on the basis of rapid impressions of a subject?

The proliferation of liberal arts degrees, and in particular what is studied in them, and what counts as studying may be a cause.

But can be done about it? With Menton, one shakes ones head. Our leaders are sliding into almost medieval levels of superstition without even realising it.

michel
Reply to  michel
April 2, 2022 1:05 am

Sorry, with Stephen Wilde, of course!

David Blenkinsop
Reply to  michel
April 2, 2022 10:20 am

Very good summation, however, the rise of the climate scare goes back at least 15 years farther than the 20 years you mention. Things really started to “warm up” in this regard back in the mid 1980’s. Lots of politicians, science popularizers, opinion makers, etc., just took it as given, then, that a ‘scary theory’ interpretation was to be taken as gospel, taken as a crisis Where Something Must Be Done.

As far as what can be done to bring these people back to reality, I’d have to say that as much as I may not like it, autocrat Putin is doing as much as anyone to administer a harsh dose of reality to the very people that need it. See, for instance,
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/17894828/all-options-fracking-ban-in-place/

Oh, and ‘P.S.’ I just realized that the Berlin Wall fell toward the end of 1989, so that was the era when the perceived threat of the Cold War were removed or greatly reduced. So it was time to go shopping for a new existential crisis, then? Things change now, maybe?

kybill
Reply to  michel
April 2, 2022 10:27 am

NO – our western world leaders are doing what they honestly believe in – the destruction of the western economy and the formation of one world wide government. They know the facts and statistics. They understand the follies of windmills and solar panels. They understand that this will financially cripple the western world. This there goal.

JEHILL
Reply to  kybill
April 3, 2022 6:51 am

Yes, this is all on purpose. None of it accidental. Statistically, even an actual idiot could not be this wrong, this often unless it part of an actual plan. This is all wilfully and throughly thought out and war-gamed.

jono1066
Reply to  michel
April 3, 2022 3:28 pm

read up on Winlaton and the hydeploy in the uk , they hope to be supplied with green H next year as a proving ground .
I wait with baited breath.

John the Econ
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
April 2, 2022 5:55 am

Not insane. They just answer to people other than the constituency they are supposed to represent.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
April 2, 2022 7:05 am

Mentally retarded is the correct diagnosis

Daryl M
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
April 2, 2022 12:44 pm

They are. So are the people who vote them in. Are you listening, GTA and Atlantic Canada?!?!?

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Daryl M
April 3, 2022 7:01 pm

Scientifically proven fact that you can’t hear anything when your head is lodged in your bum.
There’s a lot of that here in canaduh

Mike Dubrasich
April 1, 2022 10:32 pm

Heaven forfend that Canada might possibly get 2°C warmer by 2100. What a bummer that would be. Better to lock up the oil and engender worldwide economic collapse and total war instead.

Our pathetic “leaders” are barking mad.

Mike Jonas(@egrey1)
Editor
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
April 2, 2022 12:22 am

Canada getting 2°C warmer by 2100 would have quite an impact on Canadians: greater food production, lower heating costs, fewer excess winter deaths, better living conditions. The Canadian government is certainly either ignorant or evil[*], with its current policies.

The strange thing is that if you look around the rest of the world, you see all the same benefits in all the higher latitudes, especially as the warming is predicted to be greater in winter than in summer and greater at night than by day, and there is also predicted to be little or no warming at the lower latitudes.

All western governments have to do is to conduct one single cost-benefit analysis. They do them for everything else, why not for climate. (Rhetorical question so no ‘?’). The answer as we all know is that none of the climate measures being taken by western governments are for the purpose of improving Earth’s climate. Their sole purpose is concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few. As Vijay Jayaraj has so eloquently and clearly pointed out on WUWT, the wealth transfer is already well underway, with poorer people around the world having their lives made more and more difficult while the ultra-wealthy have an ever-increasing stream of government money (ie, other people’s money) flowing into their coffers.

[*] The evidence strongly suggests evil, not ignorant.

Derg
Reply to  Mike Jonas
April 2, 2022 3:01 am

“ especially as the warming is predicted to be greater in winter than in summer and greater at night than by day”

It’s been nearly 40 years since the global warming craze started and I am still waiting for warmth. Here in MN, we still have snow on the ground in April…no fooling.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Derg
April 2, 2022 3:40 am

Tonight could be the coldest London night in April for at least 70 YEARS as temperatures drop to -3C and cold snap brings thundersnow, sleet and hail
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10675367/UK-weekend-weather-Temperatures-plummet-8C-Met-Office-issues-snow-warning.html

Despite Global Warming and UHI

Richard Page
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
April 2, 2022 9:40 am

Thundersnow? I’m not entirely familiar with that phenomenon, is it a new thing – something to do with impending thermageddon, perhaps? sarc

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Richard Page
April 2, 2022 1:27 pm

No, it’s a genuine phenomenon. Snow storms can occasionally be accompanied by lightning. They aren’t common. I can recall one happening in my area within the last decade or so.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Richard Page
April 3, 2022 7:02 pm

Thunder blizzards are very cool
There was one in red deer 2 weeks ago

Saw one maybe 6 times in my life growing up on the prairies

DMacKenzie
Reply to  Mike Jonas
April 2, 2022 7:57 am

Canada’s Cabinet, consisting of the Ministers of every facet of governmental administration, has a preponderance of one-time members of Claus Schwab’s “Forum of Young Global Leaders”, and the policies they back are not distinguishable from WEF recommendations. The question is whether they are enlightened thinkers or useful idiots.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
April 2, 2022 7:11 am

Our new mayor in calgary declared a climate emergency, a place that gets 6 weeks of summer every year

MarkW
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
April 2, 2022 6:23 pm

It’s not even 2C warmer than now. It’s 2C warmer compared to the bottom of the Little Ice Age. What they are terrified of is less than half a degree of warming between now and 2100.

Steve Case
April 2, 2022 12:53 am

If you follow the [Read the rest here] link above, it says:

 the 2017 U.S. National Climate Assessment reported (pp. 190-91) that heat wave magnitudes were considerably higher in the 1930s, while over the past century high temperatures experienced a net decline in almost all regions east of the Rocky Mountains.
_____________________________________________________________

Here’s what that looks like:

comment image

Most of the states shown in blue have declining summer Maximum temperatures going back to the 19th century.

Source:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/statewide/time-series
Data as it was in 2016

HotScot
April 2, 2022 12:59 am

There’s only one sure fired guaranteed response from sceptics left available to us.

The ‘Told You So’ ploy.

Works every time.

Not too long now…………

fretslider
April 2, 2022 1:38 am

“BBC Weather: Britons brace for ‘really frosty’ weekend as mercury drops to -7C overnight…”

“Energy boss warns ‘lives will be lost’ as rising bills hit millions
BRITAIN’S brutal cost-of-living crisis will see OAPs (Old Age Pensioners) suffer and die, the head of one of the country’s biggest power firms has predicted.”

It isn’t just Canada

Eric Vieira
April 2, 2022 1:45 am

What about just saying “No” ? Civil disobedience wasn’t quite at the level it should have been in Ottawa. It nevertheless caused Trudeau to run for the hills. Unfortunately he didn’t stay there.
If Governments keep up with their massive overreaches and keep on systematically harming the population, sooner or later the masses are bound to fight back. First with the court system and then with other means. Then the “overlords” will be compelled to realize: the population is thousands of times more in numbers than they are … weapons can change hands, and people who work for them can change their minds and turn on them … Propaganda doesn’t work with an empty stomach, and I don’t think a regime like North Korea could work in North America where freedom has a very long tradition. Finally there’s one thing: they need us! We don’t need them!

fretslider
Reply to  Eric Vieira
April 2, 2022 1:58 am
Old Man Winter
Reply to  Eric Vieira
April 2, 2022 7:19 am

i think the Canadian truckers were very brave as being the first group to
stand up to the overbearing authoritarian government as True-Dope was
forced to “go nuclear” by resorting to dictatorial powers, revealing to all
what a thug he really is. Unfortunately, that was only Round One & It will take
a lot more of that to to at least keep the internationalist dictatorial class from
taking even more freedoms from us. Using the climate scam is only one way
to steal our money through needless higher prices, shortages & rationing as
they know “the way to control a person is through their wallet”. This will give
them more lame excuses to declare emergencies & “go nuclear” to deal
with the problems they themselves created for this very purpose. Sneaky
little devils, aren’t they?

Smart Rock
Reply to  Eric Vieira
April 2, 2022 11:03 am

It won’t work like that. The Waterhole government tells the oil and gas sector to reduce “emissions” by 42 percent in 8 years. If they succeed, using a lot of CCS, fuel prices will go up dramatically (due to increased costs and the ever-increasing carbon tax). If they can’t do it and choose to reduce or close down operations, fuel prices will go up dramatically (due to reduced supply and the ever-increasing carbon tax).

In either case, our dear leaders will point at the oil and gas companies and accuse them of sticking it to consumers (“putting profits ahead of the welfare of the planet” or some such rubbish), and the compliant media will repeat the message. It’s win-win for our leaders and lose-lose for the people.

What else is new? As we reap the harvest planted by student radicals in the 1960s, it all seems to be going very much as planned.

another ian
April 2, 2022 3:11 am

Pointman doing some plain speaking

“REMIND ME AGAIN, WHICH COUNTRY’S ECONOMY WAS SANCTIONS GOING TO DEVASTATE?”

https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2022/04/01/remind-me-again-which-countrys-economy-was-sanctions-going-to-devastate/

A map to go with that

https://richardsonpost.com/davidhiscox/26399/strategic-darwin-port-sold-to-china/

Not much submarine opportunity there

April 2, 2022 3:43 am

Over the decades, Putin’s military aggressions have been determined by the price of oil. High prices give him the funds necessary to act. That would strongly suggest that had Trump been president, oil prices would not be so high, and Putin likely would not have invaded, meaning those who hid the reality of Hunter Biden’s laptop from the public have the blood of the dead in Ukraine on their hands. Not to mention the energy cost induced suffering of billions around the globe.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Dennis Topczewski
April 2, 2022 11:45 am

I think Trump taking out a lot of Russian mercenaries in Syria told Vlad not
to mess with him. And Vlad was smart enough not to!

Tom Halla
April 2, 2022 5:27 am

The politicians have to double down on a failed policy, as otherwise they have to admit they were always clueless. No one who did the math thought NetZero was a viable goal, especially only with wind and solar.
Voting them out seems the only alternative.

Thomas Gasloli
April 2, 2022 6:25 am

It is the voters who are at fault. Biden announced in a televised debate that he wanted to destroy the oil & gas industry. Trudeau, BoJo, and all the EU leaders ran openly on the same platform.

You vote for economic disaster, you get economic disaster.

Robert Hanson
Reply to  Thomas Gasloli
April 2, 2022 12:08 pm

Barack Obama: “Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.” (January 2008)

And he still got elected…Twice!

Bob Hunter
April 2, 2022 8:32 am

The CDN Prime Minister’s political base (Ontario & Quebec) has insignificant fossil fuels. Canadian CO2 emissions are 1.5% of world total. Yesterday the UN stated the World CO2 emissions are at an all time high. The CDN Prairies with 90% of Canada’s fossil fuels have subsidized CDN health/social programs across the entire country the last 60 years.
ie even if Canada was net zero tomorrow it wouldn’t change what is happening elsewhere but the transfer of wealth from the CDN prairies to other regions continue with EV subsidies to Central Canada auto manufacturers. But the CDN Prime Minister has made his political base happy. POLITICS vs COMMON SENSE

n.n
April 2, 2022 9:18 am

Emissions control without cause. Ecological blight, too. Sanctions as a model of redistributive change. A trifecta of friendly fire.

Gunga Din
Reply to  n.n
April 2, 2022 3:14 pm

The fire isn’t friendly.
Those who have been duped are being shot in the back.
The rest of us are facing forward and shooting back.

Tom.1
April 2, 2022 3:04 pm

I cannot understand how the leader of a significant country such as Canada could endorse Net-Zero without asking a few simple questions:

  1. Can we actually do this?
  2. What does it cost?
  3. How long will it take?

One would think that someone in receipt of the answers to those questions would be taking a more realistic and measured approach to solving the global warming problem, assuming there is a problem. It baffles me. Is everyone too afraid to say that the “emperor has no clothes”?

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Tom.1
April 3, 2022 7:06 pm

Have you not heard of Justin before?
imbEcile is too small a word

ferdberple(@ferdberple)
April 3, 2022 8:15 am

Lots of people mistakenly say “blackmail” when what they are describing is extortion.

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