The Week That Was: 2022-03-19 (March 19, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Is science of any value? I think a power to do something is of value.” — Richard P. Feynman.
Number of the Week: 4.5 times
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW will conclude its discussion of the video presentation by William van Wijngaarden explaining his work with William Happer to the Irish Climate Science Foundation on the global temperature impacts of increasing water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, nitrous oxide, and methane in the atmosphere. This work uses the high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database (HITRAN), which is a compilation of spectroscopic parameters, specifications, used to simulate and predict the transmission and emission of light in the atmosphere. In the 1860s, John Tyndall correctly recognized that certain atmospheric gases keep the land masses of the earth from going into a deep freeze at night, naming them greenhouse gases. Yet, modern climate scientists largely ignore his work, which was not precise, and the work of modern scientists studying the atmosphere.
As van Wijngaarden presents, an important characteristic of these gases is that they quickly become saturated, meaning their effectiveness in absorbing, and emitting photons, electromagnetic energy in the infrared frequencies, is quickly diminished as their concentration increases. In the current atmosphere, the effectiveness of adding a few molecules of water vapor or carbon dioxide is diminished by over 1000 compared to adding them to an atmosphere that has not greenhouse gases. As a result, the long-term projections / predictions of impacts from increasing greenhouse gases favored by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its climate modelers are scientifically meaningless and completely mislead the public. These projections / predictions can be considered to be tools of propaganda.
TWTW will continue presenting the essays of Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physicist Howard Hayden. Hayden looks at the overall results of the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer and compiled a series of essays using basic physics, all-inclusive physics, explaining the importance of their work and the limitations it places on global climate modeling. In ignoring what is occurring in the earth’s atmosphere, the climate modelers are creating an artificial world far different than the physical one, that may be best suited for their political aims.
Also, TWTW will discuss the continued foolishness of the Biden Administration in addressing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which gave up its immense nuclear weapons on assurances by Russia and the US that its sovereignty will be protected. The administration “protections” are weak, at best. The entire Biden administration appears ignorant of what is occurring and can occur in its own backyard, and the Biden administration is destroying American prosperity and its credibility.
*******************
Power of an Additional Molecule: About 20 minutes into his UTUBE presentation, van Wijngaarden gives the method used to check the results of the Wijngaarden & Happer model against independent physical evidence, taken by the Nimbus 4 Satellite. Hayden extends this checking by also using observations taken over Guam, in the tropical Pacific. This type of testing of results of the model against independent physical evidence is the heart of the Scientific Method, yet is not done by modelers for NCAR, NOAA, and NASA-GISS. Yet, NCAR, NOAA and NASA-GISS model results are used to justify a false climate crisis, which is resulting in severe economic damage to the US.
Van Wijngaarden then goes into another significant contribution in understanding the physics of greenhouse gases – how the power per molecule of each greenhouse gas is reduced with additional concentrations of that gas. In Physics terms, this is called saturation. Van Wijngaarden gives a laymen’s definition:
“One can tell the difference between the 1st & 2nd coat of red paint on an old barn but not between the 10th and 11th coat.”
Or a homeowner who is painting a dark wall with a white or light paint will notice it takes several coats to properly do the job, but there is little difference between the 10th and 11 coats.
About 24 minutes into the presentation, van Wijngaarden presents a slide showing Radiative Forcing, which is the heat flux from the surface of the Earth calculated at 288.7 degrees K for the current atmosphere with water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide. The net upward flux (heat flow towards space) increases with altitude to about 10 km (6 miles), then the increase slows, diminishes, until about 20 km (12 miles) altitude, after which the net heat flow becomes almost vertical (doesn’t change) with increasing altitude. He also shows the small changes in the heat flux for an atmosphere with CO2 concentrations of 200 parts per million volume (ppm) and 800 ppm. These are compared with the heat flux assuming no atmospheric gases.
Then, van Wijngaarden becomes a bit more technical introducing a slide titled “Power per Molecule equals Forcing divided by Column Density.” He points out that both water vapor and carbon dioxide are strongly saturated in today’s atmosphere. Now, it requires the addition of over a thousand molecules of water vapor into the atmosphere to have the same greenhouse effect that would have occurred by adding one molecule to a hypothetical atmosphere with no water vapor. [The figure in the slide is Figure 8 in the written presentation cited in TWTW. The scale on the vertical axis is logarithmic, not linear.]
In 1979, the Charney Report stated that whatever modest warming carbon dioxide (CO2) is causing will be greatly amplified by a warming caused by increasing water vapor. The report concluded that a doubling of CO2 will cause an increase in temperatures of 3°C plus or minus 1.5°C. This estimate was largely due to the urging of climate modelers involved. It is based on speculation, not physical evidence. Van Wijngaarden and Happer provide the physical evidence contradicting the assumption.
As van Wijngaarden points out, the physical evidence of a global increase in water vapor is ambiguous. [El Niños add water vapor to the atmosphere, particularly over the Arctic, but it appears to drop out over time, and the tropics are already saturated with water vapor.] Van Wijngaarden also points out that water vapor does not strongly overlap with other greenhouse gases, an error TWTW has made. Overlap means two gases absorb electromagnetic radiation in the same wavelengths, competing with each other.
He also points out that the influence of methane (CH4) overlaps with nitrous oxide (N2O), each reducing the effectiveness of the other.
The physical evidence and as well as the modeling being tested against independent physical evidence presented by van Wijngaarden and Happer point out significant errors in global climate modeling. These errors extend from the IPCC to its followers such as NCAR, NOAA and NASA-GISS. For years, the evidence of atmospheric temperature trends compiled by University of Alabama at Huntsville have shown that climate modeling greatly overestimates the influence of CO2. Now, we have physical evidence showing why. No wonder that once respected western scientific journals do not wish to publish such papers. The journals are more interested in political conformity than in advancing science. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
***************
Basic Climate Physics: Howard ‘Cork’ Hayden is writing a series on Basic Climate Physics, meaning all-inclusive physics that pertains to the subject of climate. He uses the approach used by van Wijngaarden and Happer and the numbers established by the IPCC to establish an upper bound for calculations by climate modelers on temperature change from a doubling of carbon dioxide. Even though some may disagree with IPCC numbers, as Hayden does, there should be no disagreement with those numbers by climate modelers who follow IPCC procedures.
Posted on the SEPP website, Hayden’s first two papers established a Planetary Heat Balance and how the greenhouse effect can be easily calculated without the need for calculations of fluid dynamics, weather, and similar complications.
Essay # 3 deals with the IPCC’s inept physics and its misunderstanding of the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation law that has been well known and accepted since the middle-to-late 1800s. This misunderstanding dates back to the First IPCC Assessment Report (FAR, 1990) and is repeated in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021). The amount of radiation the surface of a planet in heat balance emits to space is not dependent on its temperature, but on the amount of solar radiation it receives. For example, Venus is closer to the sun than earth and is much hotter, but it emits only 156 watts per square meter compared to earth emitting 239 watts per square meter. This is because the clouds over Venus, the (albedo) reflect about 75% of the energy it receives whereby the Earth’s albedo (clouds, ice, etc.) reflect only about 30%.
Essay # 4 reviews the three prior essays, and using basic algebra obtains a basic equation describing the greenhouse effect that applies to all planets that have a surface (excludes gaseous planets without a surface). Hayden then illustrates the components of the equation on the widely accepted Keith-Trenbreth diagram, also used by the IPCC. He points out that climate models that do not produce values for all four components of the equation; greenhouse effect, temperature of the surface, intensity of the sun and albedo; are woefully incomplete.
In Essay #5, Hayden uses the law of conservation of energy to develop an energy constraint of climate and climate models. The greenhouse effect, G in his equations, is the difference between the radiation from the surface and the radiation to space. With a Planetary Heat Balance, the radiation from the surface must equal the radiant energy absorbed from the sun, (incident energy minus reflected energy). For values, Hayden prefers those calculated by van Wijngaarden and Happer but uses those calculated by the IPCC.
Hayden then calculates the poorly named Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity used by the IPCC, 3°C. He shows that using the IPCC value of “radiative forcing” (from a doubling CO2) of 3.7 watts per square meter results in a mere 2.3% increase in the greenhouse effect from 159 to only 162.7 watts per square meter. The question is how can a doubling of CO2 simultaneously result in 3.7 watts per square meter of radiative forcing and a surface temperature rise of 3°C that increases surface radiation by 12.8 watts per square meter? Hayden has asked this question to a number of climate “experts,” but none has provided an answer. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy
***************
Building Back Better? The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed the folly of European countries relying on Russia for fossil fuels, as well as the US. As discussed in last week’s TWTW, the US imported a total of 245,194,000 bbl. [barrels] of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia in 2021. The nation has allowed the production from Alaska to fall by 78.4% since its peak in 1998. In 2021 it was 159,623,000 bbl, far less than the peak of in 738,143,000 bbl in 1978. The major issue for this production is drilling permits. The US can easily replace Russian oil with oil from Alaska. Further, the Biden Administration is strangling the oil and gas industries by revoking permits and stopping pipeline construction.
In addition, the Biden Administration stopped the construction of the Keystone pipeline, perhaps for good. This pipeline was needed to bring oil from Alberta, Canada. What in 2019 was called building back better, is really building back bad. A September 6, 2019, video sums up Joe Biden’s views of the oil and gas industries, he guarantees that he will end our use of fossil fuels. There is no reason he has changed or anyone in his administration will change. As long as he and his colleagues are in control of US energy policy, the results will be economically disastrous.
Donn Dears, who has long followed energy issues, estimates it will take as long as two years before Europe can replace Russian energy sources. Needless to say, since the oil and gas countries that can provide replacement will incur significant costs, they are demanding long term contracts. Many green organizations are reacting with typical zealotry, claiming civilization does not need fossil fuels, and that wind and solar power can replace total energy needs at about the same cost. As the UK and Germany are finding out and Paul Homewood points out in discussing the UK power flex deficit:
“And the ‘solutions’ naively offered by Timera? [An energy consulting service] Batteries, DSR, Interconnectors (which they acknowledge may not be reliable at times of stress in Europe) and burning gas.
“But as they themselves regularly admit, batteries, DSR and other forms of storage are strictly short-term measures – that is for an hour or two, designed to manage fluctuations in grid frequency and peak demands.
“They are utterly useless when power is needed for days and weeks on end, when the wind stops blowing.
“Which brings us back to gas.”
See links under Change in US Administrations, Energy Issues – Non-US, Energy Issues – US, and Washington’s Control of Energy.
***************
Additions and Corrections: Last week, The Number of the Week shifted units of measurements, confusing some readers. It went from barrels per day, to barrels per month to barrels per year. Although the values were carefully checked with the sources, TWTW will try to keep shifting such units clear.
TWTW uses three different formats, depending how the information is sent: 1) Word, 2) a Mad Mimi (the email format) editing of Word, and 3) pdf (Adobe). Sometimes mathematical notations can change. For example, using superscript for “times 10 to the fifth power” (times 100,000) can become “times 105” (which is not correct). TWTW will endeavor to be alert to such changes.
***************
Number of the Week: 4.5 times. Based on the calculations by Howard Hayden using the Planetary Heat Balance, the IPCC can account for an increase in greenhouse effect of only 3.7 watts per square meter for a doubling of CO2. Yet, the increase in temperatures the IPCC projects /predicts requires an increase of 16.5 watts per square meter. About 12.8 watts per square meter, 4.5 times more than what can be calculated. Where does this increase of 4.5 times come from since the influence of water vapor on temperature is highly saturated?
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
New Study: The CO2-Drives-Global-Warming ‘Concept’ Is ‘Obsolete And Incorrect’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 14, 2022
Link to paper: The Sun Versus CO2 as the Cause of Climate Change Projected to 2050
By H. Douglas Lightfoot & Gerald Ratzer, Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences, Feb 1, 2022
Censorship
When Trust and Safety Encounter Fact and Science
By Pat Frank, WUWT, Mar 17, 2022
“I’m not claiming this explanation is physically correct. However, the derivable inference that the recent warming is the result of natural variation is more compelling than a CO2 assumption forced by tendentiously constructed models and self-circular interpretations of ice-core records.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Relative Potency of Greenhouse Molecules
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Jan 14, 2021
Methane and Climate Change
By William van Wijngaarden. Irish Climate Science Foundation, Nov 25, 2020
Video
Basic Climate Physics #3, #4, #5
By Howard “Cork” Hayden, SEPP website, March 12, 2022
http://sepp.org/science_papers.cfm
Climate Models Don’t
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Mar 16, 2022
Link to KNMI Climate Explorer
By Staff WMO, Mar 14, 2022
Link to paper: Robustness of CMIP6 Historical Global Mean Temperature Simulations: Trends, Long-Term Persistence, Autocorrelation, and Distributional Shape
By Simon Michael Papalexiou, et al., Earth’s Future, Sep 10, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Increasingly, global climate models are departing from reality. A consequence of lobbying by NCAR climate modelers?]
Not Expecting Coral Bleaching During a La Niña
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Mar 19, 2022
“…This reef, Pixie Reef, is listed as one of the worse bleached of all the Great Barrier Reefs, yet we found it so healthy.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exploded our renewables myth
By Bjorn Lomborg courtesy of the Australian, Via Royhill, Mar 12, 2022
“Our continued use of Kremlin-backed oil and gas reveals two inconvenient truths.
“First, reliable energy maintains the foundation of modern society and few are willing to give up its benefits.
“Access to cheap, abundant and dependable energy has been the cornerstone of the industrial revolution and humanity’s achievements.
“Second, we have been sold a largely untrue story that renewables can give us energy independence.”
The Green Immoralists
Elite ideology divorced from reality impoverishes people and can get them killed.
By Victor David Hanson, Independent Institute, Mar 10, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy
Green groups say gas crisis makes transition to renewables even more urgent
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 11, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Permafrost peatlands approaching tipping point
Press Release, University of Leeds, Mar 14, 2022
Link to paper: Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia
By Richard E. Fewster, et al. Nature Climate Change, Mar 14, 2022
From the abstract: “Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5)”
[SEPP Comment: More tipping point nonsense, based on projections from models that fail basic testing then using absurd assumptions.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
An earthquake in Eden [UK]
By Tim Worstall, Net Zero Watch, Mar 11, 2022
“Our argument is not that fracking must be allowed to shake cathedral spires from their foundations. Rather, we must have a sensible set of rules about earth tremors, and those same rules must apply to all causes and processes that lead to earth tremors.”
Energy and Environmental Review: March 14, 2022
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, March 14, 2022
Change in US Administrations
Biden: “I Guarantee You We’re Going To End Fossil Fuel”
Video, Via Real Clear Energy, Mar 18, 2022
Fact check: Biden falsely claims he never opposed fracking
By Holmes Lybrand, CNN, Oct 23, 2020 [H/t Real Clear Energy]
The Russian Invasion of Ukraine And Energy Prices: Myth vs. Fact
By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Mar 16, 2022
An Artificial Energy Crisis
By Benjamin Dierker, Alliance for Innovation and Infrastructure, Mar 9, 2022
Biden Administration Handicapped Domestic Energy Production on First Day in Office, Memos Reveal
By Caroline Downey, National Review, Mar 16, 2022
“This past January, the Biden administration also took half of the 23 million acres of federal land in National Petroleum Reserve Alaska “off the table” for drilling, Padgett added.
“The U.S. is producing approximately one million fewer barrels of oil a day than in 2019, when the pandemic hit and production had been ramping up. About 700,000 barrels that year were imported each day from Russia.”
Climate Change Weekly #429: Climate Change Poses No Existential Threat. Nada. Not Any
By H Sterling Burnett, Environment & Climate News, Mar 17, 2022
Does the Biden Administration Deserve Blame for High Gasoline Prices?
By Benjamin Zycher, National Review, Mar 17, 2022
Biden’s “They have 9,000 to drill onshore that are already approved” Drilling Permits Canard
By David Middleton, WUWT, Mar 16, 2022
“To explain the lies, I am going to start with leases, which are often conflated with permits. In order to obtain a drilling permit, you have to have a lease. In order to have a lease, the Federal government has to follow the law and hold lease sales and honor those leases.
Yes, Biden Is To Blame For The Energy Crisis. Here’s Why.
By MacIver Staff, Maclver Institute, Mar 9, 2022
Joe Biden’s ‘Transition Away From the Oil Industry’ Is Strangling America’s Economy
By Levi A. Russell, Real Clear Energy, Mar 15, 2022
Why Rely on OPEC for Biden Blunder Bailouts?
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Mar 14, 2022
Joe Biden Needs to Support U.S. Energy Industry Now– Not Our Foreign Adversaries Abroad
By Craig Stevens, Real Clear Energy, March 13, 2022
‘C’mon Man’ Stop Sabotaging American Energy
Kevin Mooney RealClearEnergy March 16, 2022
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
CO2 A Blessing: Just 1 PPM Increase Means Up To 0.8% Greater Crop Yields, New Study Shows
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 18, 2022
Link to a study of US agriculture: Environmental Drivers of Agricultural Productivity Growth: CO₂ Fertilization of US Field Crops
By Charles A. Taylor & Wolfram Schlenker, National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2021
From abstract: We find consistently high fertilization effects: a 1 ppm increase in CO₂ equates to a 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.8% yield increase for corn, soybeans, and wheat, respectively. Viewed retrospectively, 10%, 30%, and 40% of each crop’s yield improvements since 1940 are attributable to rising CO₂.,
[SEPP Comment: Corn (maize) is a C4 plant, which has evolved a type of photosynthesis that uses CO2 more efficiently than C3 plants, making it less prone to CO2 starvation. About 95% of plants are C3 plants including rice, wheat, oats, barley, cotton, peanuts, sugar beets, soybeans, and spinach.]
Study: Climate Change Boosted Plant Growth is Bad
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 15, 2022
Link to paper: Projected climate-driven changes in pollen emission season length and magnitude over the continental United States
By Yingxiao Zhang & Allison L. Steiner, Nature Communications, Mar 15, 2022
Seeking a Common Ground
A ‘Plan B’ for addressing climate change and the energy transition
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Mar 17, 2022
New Project on Honest Brokering and Citizen Juries
By Roger Pielke Jr. His Blog, Mar 16, 2022
“A citizen jury is a small group of people (typically up to several dozen) who are asked to meet to conduct extended deliberations on an important topic of policy. They are not expected to be experts, but citizens.”
Science, Policy, and Evidence
WSJ Columnist Zeroes in on Why the Biden Response to the Ukraine War Is a Mess
By Matt Vespa, Townhall, Mar 17, 2022
“’The administration refused to impose sanctions in the lead-up to Mr. Putin’s invasion, naively trusting diplomacy. Yet even after Russian tanks rolled—and despite having months to prepare—the response has been slow, timid, hostage to feel-good ‘multilateralism’ and unwilling to attack the real engine of the Russian economy: energy.’”
Measurement Issues — Surface
Temperatures Expose Selection Bias In Paleo Reconstructions
New Analysis Of Greenland’s GISP2 Temperatures Expose Selection Bias In Paleo Reconstructions
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 17, 2022
Link to study: Comparison of Holocene temperature reconstructions based on GISP2 multiple-gas-isotope measurements
By Michael Döringab & Markus Christian Leuenberge, Quaternary Science Reviews, Mar 25, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Since the 1940s the preferred method for establishing temperatures is the ratio of O18 in water molecules compared to O16. As air cools, water vapor with O18 drops out earlier, lost to precipitation. The use of argon and nitrogen appears to be a recent effort to counter earlier, established research.]
Changing Weather
Mud Season In Ukraine
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 15, 2022
The Disaster at Lismore, Some Rainfall Statistics
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Mar 16, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Actual measurements, not averages make a big difference.]
Northwest Reservoirs and Summer Water Supply Are in Good Shape
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 17, 2022
“I could show you more reservoirs or rivers, but the general conclusion is that the current outlook is positive for water supply this summer for Washington State, something expected after a La Nina winter. California is not so good…. which is typical for La Nina years.”
March 18, 1925 – Deadliest Tornadoes In US History
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 18, 2022
Warming Could Lead To Fewer Tornadoes… Trend Has Been Downward 70 Years, Less Damage
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 13, 2022
A new assessment of extreme weather trends: droughts
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 16, 2022
“Taking all the categories together the data show droughts are less common now than in the past.”
“The only thing drying up is the credibility of alarmists who claim otherwise.”
Are TV Weathercasters Meteorologists? And Another Atmospheric River Coming Our Way.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 18, 2022
Podcast
The sunburnt lands up north: Chesterfield Inlet
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 16, 2022
Changing Climate
In Celebration of Our Warm Climate
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Mar 15, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Informative cartoon of estimated thickness of ice 21,000 years ago at locations of North American cities. Also graphic of estimates of pole-to-pole temperature gradients (from Icehouse to Hothouse)]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
What a place to find a boat
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 16, 2022
“That we now have images of it sitting upright on the bottom, name clearly visible, ‘in a brilliant state of preservation’ is a tribute to modern technology as well as the determination of the searchers. But as a viewer observes, there’s a climate angle: If it’s so much warmer today and all the ice is melting, how come they could sail a wooden ship so close to Antarctica that it took over a century to find it again amid all the, ahem, ice?”
Franklin’s Ill-Fated Expedition Contradicts Dr. Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick Temperature Reconstruction
The Franklin Expedition’s greatest enemy: The Little Ice Age
By Die kalte Sonne, (Translation/editing by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Mar 12, 2022
Good news for polar bears and seals: new study finds multiyear Arctic sea ice is getting thinner
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Mar 13, 2022
Link to paper: Arctic Snow Depth, Ice Thickness, and Volume From ICESat-2 and CryoSat-2: 2018–2021
By Sahra Kacimi,& Ron Kwok, Geophysical Research Letters, Mar 10, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Arctic sea productivity increases with increasing solar exposure allowing more photosynthesis. Must be very shocking to many Arctic “experts.”]
Golden oldies
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 16, 2022
“’Over the last several decades, people in remote Alaska communities have observed an influx of beavers as the warming climate has fostered the growth and expansion of woody vegetation, providing more forage and dam construction materials for the eager engineers. Recent studies have highlighted a vicious circle of expanding Arctic beaver populations and global warming.’” [Boldface added]
Temperatures in eastern Antarctica are 70 degrees warmer than usual
By Sarakshi Rai, The Hill, Mar 18, 2022
“Eastern Antarctica on Friday recorded temperatures that are 70 degrees higher than normal for this time of the year, The Washington Post reported.
“Temperatures in the eastern part of the continent have soared 50 to 90 degrees above normal, raising concern from the scientific community.
“The Post reported that instead of temperatures being between minus 50 and minus 60 degrees Fahrenheit, they’ve been closer to zero or 10 degrees Fahrenheit, which is considered to be a massive heat wave by Antarctic standards.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: What will summer bring? Wait a moment, it is summer.]
Changing Earth
Magnitude, frequency and climate forcing of global volcanism during the last glacial period as seen in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores (60–9 ka)
By Jiamei Lin., et al., Climate of the Post, Mar 15, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Did volcanic dust from Hunga Tonga cause flooding in Australia?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 15, 2022
Greenland Hiawatha Crater Robustly Dated to Late Paleocene
By David Middleton, WUWT, Mar 19, 2022
Link to paper: A Late Paleocene age for Greenland’s Hiawatha impact structure
By Gavin Kenny, et al., AAAS Science Advances, Mar 9, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Over 50 million years before Younger Dryas cooling, when Greenland was attached to the North American and European plates and Central America had not formed.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Climate Alarmists Bidding to Claim the Coming Food Price Crisis
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 17, 2022
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Ancient El Niños reveals limits to future climate projections
Press Release by University of Texas at Austin, Mar 15, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Unraveling forced responses of extreme El Niño variability over the Holocene
By Allison Lawman, et al. AAAS Science Advances, Mar 4, 2022
From the abstract: “Here, we focus on the Holocene epoch and show that ENSO amplitude and frequency intensified over this period, driven by an increase in extreme El Niño events. Our study combines new climate model simulations, advances in coral proxy system modeling, and coral proxy data from the central tropical Pacific.”
Lowering Standards
IEA Wants Energy Lockdowns
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 18, 2022
“There have been plenty of hints that COVID lockdowns would morph into climate lockdowns. But now the idea is being promoted quite blatantly by the IEA.
“It is framed as just being a short-term measure to tide us all over the Ukraine crisis. But can anybody honestly imagine such measures being dropped in a few months’ time?
“Indeed, the IEA let the cat out of the bag when they say:
“’The new report also includes recommendations for decisions to be taken now by governments and citizens to transition from the short-term emergency actions included in the 10-Point Plan to sustained measures that would put countries’ oil demand into a structural decline consistent with a pathway towards net zero emissions by 2050.’
“Note how it is all presented as being ‘in our own interest’.”
IEA wants Energy Lockdowns: drive slower, ban cars on Sunday, ride share, and blame Putin
By JO Nova, Her Blog, Mar 19, 2022
“Vladimir Putin and President Xi would be a lot more afraid of The West if we just drilled for more oil and more gas.”
Dear Emma Marris [The Atlantic]: Check Your Premises (self-righteous anger at ‘fossil-fuel capitalism’ is self-deprecating)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, March 18, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Unfortunately, to many self-righteous anger is a substitute for reason.]
Clueless Emma Gatten [Reporter for The Telegraph]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 12, 2022
“But what on earth is Gatten babbling on about when she complains that £1.2 billion of rebates are being handed over to “energy giants”, something that John Penrose repeats?
“As they should both know, any savings returned under CfDs are passed on to consumers via the CfD Supplier Levy, just as subsidies are. Oersted produced this factsheet for its business users to show how it works:”
“Why on earth does the Telegraph delegate its reporting on energy matters to it Environment Editor? She may know all about trees and toads, but she regularly shows that she does not have the first idea about energy.”
Emma Gatten’s Fake “Green Dividend” Claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 18, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Opinion: Another energy crisis is here. The U.S. must be realistic about what’s next.
By Editorial Board, Washington Post, Mar 9, 2022
How climate change is leading to bigger hailstones
By David Hambling, BBC, Mar 14, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Sarah Bloom Raskin Withdraws Her Nomination to the Federal Reserve Board
Biden’s nominee had publicly encouraged measures to mitigate climate change, including a transition to cleaner energy, which triggered a backlash from America’s powerful oil, gas, and coal industries.
By Jane Mayer, The New Yorker, March 15, 2022
The BBC’s fake news about fracking
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 16, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
The end of what?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 16, 2022
“P.S. Send us photos of your winter mosquitoes please. We can’t see ours for the snow.”
Proxy Rates of Sea Level Rise
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Mar 18, 2022
Link to paper: Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863
By Jennifer S. Walke, et al., Nature Communications, Feb 18, 2022
“Reading the paper, I found the magic behind the curtain. The finished records in Fig. 5 above are the result of the raw data being “incorporated into a spatiotemporal empirical hierarchical model” … and hey, if you don’t believe in the millimeter-level accuracy of a random spatiotemporal empirical hierarchical model, you must be anti-science.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
A win: Australian Federal Court tosses out high schoolers’ climate case
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 16, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
The people in charge wish they had more clout
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 16, 2022
Questioning European Green
A Kalibr Missile just hit Net Zero: Germany wakes old coal plants, UK talks of backflip on gas, oil, fracking too
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 17, 2022
Smart Meter Rollout Costs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 16, 2022
“They reckon that between 2013 and 2034, the total cost will be £13.5bn:”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Build Back Bad: Wounded Climate Agenda Seeks Traction
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, March 17, 2022
Funding Issues
Did Putin plot with eco-warriors to halt UK fracking
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 15, 2022
“It is now time for Britain’s anti-fracking and other environmental lobbying groups to be transparent about the sources of their income. The words of the former secretary-general of Nato and those of American lawmakers simply can no longer be ignored.”
Litigation Issues
A Couple Of Really “Smart” Guys Set Out To Prosecute Donald Trump
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 15, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Since 1800, a unique feature of American democracy was that if a President lost reelection, he could go home without retaliation. No more!]
Appeals court halts ruling blocking Biden climate metric
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Mar 16, 2022
Climate group bringing law suit against Shell directors on net zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 17, 2022
“At a time when both the UK and EU are being forced by the Ukraine crisis to re-evaluate their energy policy and the use of fossil fuels, it simply is not acceptable that green activists within the government machine are using taxpayer money to subvert it.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
No benefit from ‘negative subsidies’
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Mar 16, 2022
“The sums involved have thus far been rather paltry.”
“And there’s another problem. While the CfD regulations are quite specific about how the negative subsidies will find their way back to suppliers, there is absolutely no obligation on said suppliers to pass the money on to consumers.”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA proposes new rule to cut interstate air pollution
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 11, 2022
“The proposal includes adding electric generating units in half of U.S. states beginning in 2023. It would also include new emissions standards for industrial pollutants that affect downwind air quality in 23 states beginning in 2026. The agency projects that the changes would prevent some 1,000 premature deaths that year and one million fewer asthma attacks.”
[SEPP Comment: Using statistical fanaticism to justify controlling US electricity.]
Net-Zero and ESG Are Worsening the Energy Crisis – and Weakening the West
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, March 17, 2022
“The day after President Biden announced that the United States would ban imports of Russian oil and gas, a group of eleven powerful European investment funds that includes Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, outlined plans to force Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second largest bank, to cut its lending to oil and gas companies. The juxtaposition of these two events dramatizes the fundamental disunity of the West. At the same time as the Biden administration is sanctioning Russian oil and gas producers, Western investors are sanctioning Western ones.”
Replacing Russian Energy
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 15, 2022
The UK’s rapidly emerging power flex deficit
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 16, 2022
Link to report: The UK’s rapidly emerging power flex deficit
By Staff, Timera Energy, Mar 14, 2022
Now Boris maps his way OUT of Net Zero agenda: PM sets up oil and gas taskforce to plot a way out of the energy crisis
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 13, 2022
Energy Issues – Australia
Guest post by Rafe Champion. The Geopolitics of Energy
By Rafe Champion, Jo Nova’s Blog, Mar 16, 2022
“South Australia is leading the way in the green transition. Whenever the wind is low overnight SA has to import coal power from Victoria. So you know what is going to happen when more coal capacity closes and there is no spare power in Victoria and NSW when the wind is low across SE Australia.
“Is connecting intermittent energy to the grid ahead of storage capacity the greatest public policy blunder since federation?”
Whither US Oil Production?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 13, 2022
“To put the numbers into perspective, the US produces a sixth of the world’s crude oil. The increase US output between 2016 and 2019 was 205 million tonnes and represents 5% of global output.
“Small changes in supply have a disproportionate effect on international oil prices, because demand is so inelastic. An extra 5% on world production would have a significant impact on prices.”
Make America Energy Independent Again
By Heather Reams, Real Clear Energy, Mar 16, 2022
[SEPP Comment: North American can quickly become energy independent.]
Unleash American Energy’s Strength and Security
By Dave Callahan, Real Clear Energy, March 16, 2022
Washington’s Control of Energy
A Free-Market Energy Letter to Biden (Americans for Prosperity)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, March 16, 2022
“Just because [proposed anti-energy] policies aren’t in effect doesn’t mean they aren’t having an impact. These administrative threats can stop new energy investment in its tracks – and that’s exactly what they are doing. We have not seen investment in American energy sources because this administration’s policy agenda makes it crystal clear that those investments will be punished.”
[SEPP Comment: As demonstrated by the Obama and Biden administrations it is far easier for Washington to destroy than create prosperity.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Here are the countries that import the most Russian oil
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Mar 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Graphs show China imported a, 3.6 mbp (million barrels per day); Germany 0.84 mbd; Netherlands 0.7 mbd; US 0.63 mbd.]
Why LNG Won’t Fully Replace Russian Gas In Europe
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Mar 13, 2022
“Now, gas is not only through the roof, but LNG producers, as Energy Intelligence’s Miller notes, are demanding commitments of between 15 to 20 years from potential buyers.”
The U.S. Can Fight Russia With Fracking
By Corey Walker, Real Clear Energy, Mar 14, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
How Volatile Is Offshore Wind?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 17, 2022
“We have been promised 40 GW of offshore wind by 2030, but in reality the most we can actually rely on is 3 GW.”
No Amount Of Incremental Wind And Solar Power Can Ever Provide Energy Independence
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 15, 2022
“There is essentially an infinite supply of … completely ignorant statements out there on the internet if you choose to spend some time collecting them. The quoted statements and dozens or hundreds more of same just blithely assume, or assert without basis, that sufficient numbers of wind turbines and solar panels can liberate us from fossil fuels, without ever mentioning or discussing the issue of energy storage.”
[SEPP Comment: An array of statements from green zealots who cannot demonstrate that wind and solar can provide reliable, affordable electricity much less power transportation. They apparently believe that if enough people say it, it must be true.]
The Wind Trap: Why Wind Power Has Already Peaked
By Barry Norris, Argonautica, Mar 15, 2022
“Wind power in the UK has already surpassed its optimal market share: its usefulness in producing incremental economic value to the power grid has already peaked. New wind capacity will only add abundant cheap power only at the same time as abundant cheap power already exists. This has no economic value. The intermittent nature of wind rather than the installed generating capacity is the constraining factor.”
Renewable Energy Projects Are Facing Resistance Around The World
By Felicity Bradstock, Oil Price.com, Mar 14, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Green Fuel Folly: Forest Thinning (For Wood Pellet Production) Has A Profound Surface Warming Impact
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 15, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
By Patrick Pester, Live Science, Mar 15, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to one reference: Five Steps to Energy Storage: Innovation Insights Brief 2020
By Staff, World Energy Council In collaboration with the California Independent System Operator (CAISO),
[SEPP Comment: The listed alternatives in the article are batteries, pumped hydro, pumped thermal, gravity energy, compressed air, and hydrogen. The only one demonstrated on a utility scale is pumped hydro, but it is replenished by reliable nuclear and fossil fuel generation, not renewables. According to the World Energy Council report, the energy loss of pumped hydro is 15 to 25% (75 to 85% efficiency). The other listed “mature industries” are Australia’s first Advanced Compressed Air Energy Storage (A-CAES) facility and Molten Salt (80 to 90% efficiency. Molten Salt failed in Nevada, but the listed facility is Hybrid CSP and PV power station in UAE.]
Aussie SMH Gives Up on the Snowy River Green Energy Pumped Hydro Scheme
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 17, 2022
“The nation-building vision was for a big battery to be added to the Snowy Mountains Hydro-Electric Scheme. It was to be completed in four years (that is, by last year) at a cost of $2 billion without any taxpayer subsidy, bring down electricity prices, generate renewable energy and incur minimal environmental impact on Kosciuszko National Park.
“Inspiring stuff. But not one of these grand claims has turned out to be true.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
My £62k electric car that takes nine hours to drive up North
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 18, 2022
“Fancy expecting to drive along with the heating on in cold weather!
“As BMW admit, electric cars are pretty much useless, unless you want as an urban run around.”
Bloomberg Green: We All Need E-Bikes Because Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 17, 2022
How a Handful of Metals Could Determine the Future of the Electric Car Industry
By Camila Domonoske, NPR, Mar 15, 2022
California Dreaming
Why We Will Save California
And why we must have the courage to care
By Michael Shellenberger, His Blog, Mar 14, 2022
Taxes, ‘mystery’ surcharge intensify Californians’ pain at the pump
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Mar 17, 2022
“First, taxes are higher generally in California, so the gas tax itself is higher,” Sanjay Varshney, a professor of finance at California State University, Sacramento told The Hill. “Number two, California environmental and emission laws are tougher, so the mix required [for] gasoline tends to be more expensive.”
Other News that May Be of Interest
Ancient seafarers built the Mediterranean’s largest known sacred pool
A big pool on a tiny island helped Phoenicians track the stars and their gods
By Bruce Bower, Science News, Mar 16, 2022
Link to paper: The sacred pool of Ba’al: a reinterpretation of the ‘Kothon’ at Motya
By Lorenzo Nigro, Cambridge University Press, Mar 17, 2022
Book Review: The Plastics Paradox or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bag
By Tim Benson, Environment & Climate, Dec 23, 2021 [H/t John Dunn]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Hairy elephants to the rescue
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 16, 2022
“’A Dallas company trying to use ancient genetic material to create modern-day versions of woolly mammoths — a quest aimed at fighting climate change and advancing health care — has raised $75 million from venture capitalists, the billionaire producer of ‘Jurassic World’ and Paris Hilton.’”
Great Lakes Water Level Forecasts
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 17, 2022
“Eight years ago, experts said the Great Lakes were going to dry up.”
“There has been no trend in Great Lakes water levels over the past century.”
The Atlantic warns that Nuclear War is a climate problem (and you thought bombs were OK?)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 14, 2022
That was quick
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 16, 2022
“The noted scientific and economic journal Rolling Stone agrees. Jeff Goodall, armed with an MFA from Columbia (in Fiction Writing, an interesting background for a journalist) and a massive attitude, hollers that: ‘“For decades, world leaders and Big Oil CEOs were happy to turn a blind eye to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s autocratic impulses and fantasies of empire building. They were all fossil-fuel junkies, hooked on the easy money of oil and gas, and Putin had plenty of it.’”
Wimbledon Self-Cancels
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 17, 2022
Video
“Athletes are being forced to make political statements about things which have nothing to do with them and nothing to do with their sport. At the same time, they are not allowed to talk about critical issues affecting athletes.”
ARTICLES
Biden’s War on Oil Hits Consumers
The American energy industry is ready to help if Washington stops trying to put us out of business.
By Harold Hamm, WSJ, March 13, 2022
TWTW Summary, The man who applied “smart drilling” to the Baaken shale formation, opening up its use for extracting oil writes:
“Gasoline prices are higher than we have ever seen. The government reported a year-over-year inflation rate of 7.9% for February, the highest since 1982. Americans need relief, and one thing stands in the way: President Biden’s unwillingness to reverse course on his administration’s commitment to put the American oil-and-gas industry out of business at the consumer’s expense.
“In the year since the administration froze new drilling leases on 26% of federal land and more than a third of the nation’s resources in productivity, the U.S. has been falling further from energy independence, putting national security at risk. There is no good reason for America to become more reliant on energy imports. It constrains our policy choices, forces us to cede our national security to foreign players and enriches those who would do us harm. This administration is working with the Saudis, Venezuela and even Iran to come to the rescue. Why?
“The U.S. needs domestically produced oil and natural gas. In 2019 the U.S. became energy-independent, a net exporter. Gas and electricity prices were low, and the U.S. was the largest producer of energy on the planet. Thanks to abundant and affordable clean-burning natural gas, brought to us by horizontal drilling, the reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions was the most successful in the industrialized world.
“Modern life is predicated on cheap, abundant, and reliable energy. This administration has manufactured scarcity and mandated insecurity around the globe. Energy prices are rising everywhere and releasing a couple of days’ supply from our strategic reserves is a temporary patch. The largest strategic reserve in the world is under our feet.
“The solution lies in three simple actions: First, make it official U.S. policy to restore energy-independence by using all sources of available energy. Announce the intent to bring on more supply of oil and gas in the U.S. This provides certainty for producers to bring new capital and supplies to the market, meeting current world demand.
“Second, open federal lands for energy development. The 9,000 permits the White House keeps touting is misleading at best. Thousands of those sites can’t be developed as they are held up in litigation. Others require new permits and leases to make a full unit. Thousands more await approval. Conservatively, our data tells us the number of available permits ready for production today stands closer to 1,500, and many of those are already drilling. No leases have been issued for federal land since 2020.
“Third, support energy infrastructure, including pipelines to transport natural gas, oil and CO2 safely. Projects such as the Mountain Valley Pipeline would increase energy availability and enhance our ability to export to our allies.”
After citing the Secretary of Energy’s claim that she is willing to work with anyone who is willing to lead into the future, Mr Hamm concludes:
“The American oil-and-gas industry has done just that. My message to the administration is this: The people of American oil and gas stand ready to work with you on U.S. energy development.”
Biden certainly has a dilemma on his hands in Ukraine. His responses could ruin several good money laundering schemes there, but on the other hand he and his family are on the take of Russian oligarchs in the millions. And what does China want him to do, as he and his family are beholden to them on the order of tens of millions?
A doubling of CO2 from what starting point? We’ve been wrangling over a doubling from 1850 levels of 280 ppm? For the last 25 years? And we’re still pretty far away from doubling it while likely closer to technolgical, social and natural changes that will render the question tertiary (from currently secondary) or moot.
“Van Wijngaarden also points out that water vapor does not strongly overlap with other greenhouse gases, an error TWTW has made.”
Wrong! Water vapour overlaps to a very large extent the IR absorption spectra of other greenhouse gases. I think he needs to check his HITRAN data again
“In the current atmosphere, the effectiveness of adding a few molecules of water vapor or carbon dioxide is diminished by over 1000 compared to adding them to an atmosphere that has not greenhouse gases.”
I believe the H&W study came to a conclusion of diminishing of over 10,000, not 1,000.