From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT?
By Paul Homewood
A rather dopey article, which is no more than a plug for the renewable lobby:
THE UK’S incredible green energy capabilities could allow it to replace Russia as a major energy exporter to the EU, Express.co.uk can exclusively reveal.
Europe is currently reeling from a major crisis, with many analysts pointing fingers at Russia as low amounts of gas flowing through from the country led to wholesale prices skyrocketing. Russian President Vladimir Putin is accused of deliberately slashing Europe’s gas supplies to speed up the approval of the Nord Stream 2. Nord Stream 2 is a new pipeline that will transit gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Poland and Ukraine on its route.
Moscow has already slashed the volumes of gas travelling into the bloc through its vast network of pipelines, sending EU prices soaring to record highs.
Greg Jackson, the CEO of Octopus Energy believes that renewable energy, which is now cheaper than fossil fuels, could turn the UK into a major electricity exporter.
Speaking to Express.co.uk, he said: “Renewable energy was cheaper before the fossil fuel crisis.
“Electricity generated from wind and Sun is cheaper than electricity generated from gas.
“That means that the more renewable energy we build, the cheaper it gets.”
According to Mr Jackson, 15 percent of a typical household’s electricity consumption is currently from renewable sources.
He said: “What that speaks to is our opportunity to transition so much more of our renewable energy into electricity and to drive costs down while we do it.
“Octopus has £3.5billion worth of electricity generation, and we think Octopus alone will need about £20billion of electricity over the next decades to meet these needs.
He added: “For the UK, wind-powered electricity can be a great export as well.
“The more wind generation we got, we have big cables that connect us to France and Norway and we’ll be able to sell the electricity we generate.
“The energy we can export is clean green electricity.
“When we build wind generation here, we use the electricity domestically and when we got spare electricity we can sell it.”
If the UK became a major energy exporter, it would be in the prime position to supplant Russia, which currently provides for 40 percent of the EU’s energy needs through natural gas.
Supplant Russian gas? Clearly neither the Express or Mr Jackson have bothered to do any sums!
So let’s help them.
In 2019, the EU (incl UK) consumed 470 bcm of natural gas, according to Statista:
Excluding the UK, the figure drop to 391 bcm, which equates to 3820 TWh. This is a third higher than the EU’s total electricity consumption of 2892 TWh. About half of that gas came from Russia.
And as we know here, gas consumption peaks much higher in winter, up to about 530 TWh/month. This is equivalent to 746 GW:
https://energyindustryreview.com/analysis/eu-gas-consumption-and-production-in-q1-2020/
In reality, intra-day peaks are even higher. Bearing in mind that we currently have 11 GW of offshore wind capacity, and are targeting 40 GW, I don’t think that will make a dent in Europe’s energy mix, even assuming we have any to spare.
Jackson comments that “when we have got spare electricity we can sell it”. Does he really think that Europe will be happy to shiver in the cold, just waiting for a windy day? Does he think that electricity can be stored in the same way gas is?
Then of course there is the question of inter-connector capacity, which is about 4GW at the moment to mainland Europe. Even if we have oodles of spare electricity, there will be very little capacity to actually export it. And who does Mr Jackson think will end up paying for any extra connector capacity added? It certainly won’t be the wind industry!
As for wind power being cheap, maybe he should consider the fact that even at current sky high levels, the wholesale price of gas is around £60/MWh. This is still much cheaper than any currently operational offshore wind farm, which across the board average £163/MWh.
The “author” of this piece is Antony Ashkenaz, another young twerp interested in climate change, but with little journalistic or worldly experience:
I use the inverted commas deliberately, because it is painfully obvious that this is simply a puff piece, dictated by Octopus Energy.
“The “author” of this piece is Antony Ashkenaz, another young twerp interested in climate change, but with little journalistic or worldly experience:” all the experience in the world does not fix stupid. There is no hope people like this “author”.
For readers in the USA please be aware that the dear ol Daily Ejaculation is pretty much the intellectual rival of a Marvel comic, complete with Zap! Pow! and superheroes. About 50% of its content is paid for advertising disguised as ‘news’ : the rest is a heady mixture of completely constructed gossip about the royal family, politicians and other celebrities.
I don’t think anyone actually believes a word it says really. I read it and have a good laugh every day.
It is useful to get a handle on what those with money want you to believe this week.
The crossword isn’t too bad.
This piece by Octopus is a strong SELL indicator. Share price topping out because people are waking up to the expense to them personally of ‘renewables’ subsidies. Unease. Sell
I notice the calm sea and consequently the mills not turning. Nothing to export from that lot.
If wind and solar are so much cheaper than gas then all prices for power need to be slashed immediately. With wind and solar so cheap and utility prices so high clearly either the government or corporations are gouging their customers and it has to end now.
Paybacks from UK renewables could cut £27 from bills by end of winter | Energy industry | The Guardian
But they won’t. The Low Carbon Contracts Company has calculated that just £39m will be returned, worth about £1.39 per household. Meanwhile, in April bills are due to rise by £693 for an OFGEM “average” household. The windfarms keep their ROC subsidies on top of market prices propped up by ever soaring UKA prices, now going through £90/tonne CO2e.
Might Go up even more.
“When we first heard yesterday that Europe’s largest energy producer, French EDF (Electricite de France) had paradoxcially again cut its nuclear output target for a second time in a month – despite already ridiculously high energy costs in France and across the continent “
European Electricity Prices Soar After France Cuts Nuclear Output Forecast | ZeroHedge
‘The French nuclear giant, once a source of national pride, has been grappling with several reactor outages that will hit earnings.’
I expect German power will have to bail them out, like last time…
So Germany will bail out France who bail out the UK … eventually you run out of people to bail you out 🙂
From the Guardian there is your problem right there. It will be some econ loon reporter like our moped riding mate Nic … low on fact and high on spin.
Not sure if Ashkenaz is a pod-person :
The Notorious London Spy School Churning Out Many of the World’s Top Journalists
Are these ‘schools’ connected?
Everybody should read “The Octopus: A Story of California” ‘ as a reminder of what happens when Robber Barons are left unchecked. Capitalism needs to be protected from the pathologically greedy who use government (and MSM) to tighten their stranglehold on a free economy. “Octopus” is surely an ironic name for a Robber Baron. Perhaps it is a deliberate sneer at those too stupid to learn from history.
Greg Jackson is a video game programmer. His understanding of anything to do with electric power generation and distribution is worse than zero. He is a danger to society.
He is one of the dangerous people heading the Ponzi scheme that is “renewable energy”.
Giving these people a voice is a sad reflection on the education level in the modern world.
Note the Freudian Slip in the headline. Britain to become a major IMPORTER of energy.
Kek.
730’000 MW avg would need 2.41T pounds (UK) if it costs 1.1M pounds per MW (nameplate capacity), assuming 33% avg capacity factor. Storage & losses may will add to that. YMMV.
Changing gas heaters/cookers for electric would add to that cost.
It would need ground source heat pumps for effective & more efficient energy use in sub-zero C temps. Heat pumps (aircon) are more efficient at the premises than gas but there are losses during generation & transmission (worse with greater distance from the windy north to get it to the south). Modern houses & renovations can have better thermal performance but those old heritage protected buildings & castles will still be hard to keep warm in winter (unless they allow you to cover the lovely stone with bland insulation & newer coverings).
‘but those old heritage protected buildings & castles will still be hard to keep warm in winter’
As I’ve written before, my local Lord installed ground source heat pipes under his rose garden and the 19th century stately home is warm for the first time since it was built…
and this lists a couple of other examples..
Stately homes exploit water features for heat pumps – Modern Building Services (modbs.co.uk)
You note in that article they didn’t give the cost of the heat pump system!!!!!!
Can I have a guess that it was about 50K making the payback on investment over 25 years if nothing breaks down 🙂
Full retard
Meanwhile, the Telegraph reports on the practical consequence of the proposed move to wind.
There are two problems. One is there isn’t enough supply during peak periods, especially with the increased demand which will come from making heat pumps the only way to heat homes and EVs the only kind of permitted cars.
The second is that what supply there is becomes intermittent and unpredictable.
The consequence of the second, unpredictable intermittency, is wildly fluctuating spot rates. This leads to financial exposure for the supply companies. Essentially they are selling long and buying short. They have supply contracts that are longer term than their purchase contracts. Their purchases will vary by the hour, their supply contracts are often fixed price for years, certainly for months, and they are price-capped.
Confronted with the second issue, one solution would be huge amounts of grid storage on tap at all times. However, this is uneconomic and probably impossible to source, install and maintain.
So the next logical solution is to control demand and to transfer the risk. Both can be accomplished by smart meters. The smart meters are hooked up to the heat pumps and the car chargers, and they just cut out during peak periods to control total demand.
But there is also another way of using them. That is, bill the customer by rates which change every half hour. That way if the wind stops, the wholesale price soars, the customer’s bill also soars. The supplier now no longer is at risk having matched his supply and purchase contracts.
This last step has now been announced in the Telegraph (which seems suddenly to have woken up to the developing disaster in UK energy caused by Net Zero).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/08/smart-meter-overhaul-open-gates-surge-pricing/ (unfortunately behind a paywall).
What we are seeing is the consequence of trying to move a nation’s electricity supply on to intermittent generation sources. It brings in a whole bunch of collateral consequences which have never been thought of by the proponents. What its really demonstrating is that the product is not the same. Wind generated power is a different product from conventional base or dispatchable generated power. Its going to be priced differently, it performs differently.
Price comparisons which don’t take account of this have been obviously fallacious for some time. However, what we are now seeing is that a country which attempts to run on intermittent power will look, feel and perform very differently from one we in the industrialized West are used to. Get ready to either have the lights and heating go out without warning. Or get used to having an electricity bill which is unpredictable and fluctuates with the wind.
The climate changers’ idea of stabilizing the grid-
Britain’s National Grid ESO (NG.L) has for the first time awarded a contract to an offshore wind farm to help keep voltage levels in the power network stable, it said on Monday.
The transmission assets of the Dogger Bank C offshore wind farm will provide 200 megavolt amperes of reactive power (MVAr), which is used to maintain network stability, for a 10-year period from 2024, National Grid said.
This will help stabilize voltage on the grid in the northeast of England after the expected closure of Hartlepool nuclear power station in March 2024, it said.
UK Awards Offshore Wind Farm a Contract to Help (oedigital.com)
Join the dots as we’re all unleashed with tremendous opportunity to unlock flexibility at an unprecedented scale-
National Grid ESO and Octopus Energy launch trial to unleash demand flexibility this winter | National Grid ESO
conspire globally and unleash locally-
Telstra, Intellihub in $100 million energy connectivity deal – Strategy – Telco/ISP – Networking – iTnews
Now that is a classic
Wind, like solar, is much more capital-intensive than are CCGT plants. If interest rates go up substantially, then the cost of debt financing for these projects will go up accordingly…and, indeed, with huge amounts of wind/solar development going on all over the world, the aditional capital requirements seems likely to exert a further upward influence on interest rates, in addition to other pressures.
All the wind turbine supplier/installers are bleeding red ink at present after getting involved in offshore wind-
Siemens Energy warns no quick fix for Siemens Gamesa wind turbines | Reuters
COLUMN | Nothing’s right, I’m torn: Saipem and Sapura face a Natalie Imbruglia moment in offshore wind, as Siemens Gamesa fires its CEO! [Offshore Accounts] – Baird Maritime
Ah, well…more subsidies needed.
People strongly favour suppliers who can supply when the buyer wants the item.
I dropped off right after “incredible green energy capabilities.”
In 1955, Lorenz wrote a paper on energy extraction from the atmosphere and showed that the energy refresh rate was ~1 MW/km^2. That paper has been forgotten in recent decades.
Lorenz’ result is, however, mirrored in recent articles on limits of wind development, using computations with mesoscale models. The new results are that the energy refresh rate for the atmosphere saturates at ~1 MW/km^2 – the same number (attached graphic from Adams and Kieth, reference listed on the graphic).
The average onshore wind turbine in Germany has a 2 MW nameplate output and a 125 m diameter rotor. Each wind turbine spacing is a circle 10 rotor diameters in radius, so each turbine is 1.25 km from its nearest neighbor, as dictated by wake physics. Together, the energy recovery rate and the nearest neighbor distance specify the area in Germany (or any other country) required to meet its energy demands with wind energy. German energy demand in 2021 was just over 560 TWh, corresponding to just under 64 GW average power (as electricity). Germany has 350,000 km^2 land area, excluding lakes-rivers.Then, an energy extraction of 1MW/km^2 and an onshore capacity factor of 0.25, Germany needs not 10%, but ALL of its land area to generate its average power needs. Add in the Baltic and North Sea (same energy refresh limit), and Germany is still sadly short of energy on the average, not to mention peak demands, and diurnal variations.
Now, the question for the student is :
Since the same limits apply to GB, can GB replace NG from Russia with wind power?