From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT?
By Paul Homewood
A rather dopey article, which is no more than a plug for the renewable lobby:
THE UK’S incredible green energy capabilities could allow it to replace Russia as a major energy exporter to the EU, Express.co.uk can exclusively reveal.
Europe is currently reeling from a major crisis, with many analysts pointing fingers at Russia as low amounts of gas flowing through from the country led to wholesale prices skyrocketing. Russian President Vladimir Putin is accused of deliberately slashing Europe’s gas supplies to speed up the approval of the Nord Stream 2. Nord Stream 2 is a new pipeline that will transit gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Poland and Ukraine on its route.
Moscow has already slashed the volumes of gas travelling into the bloc through its vast network of pipelines, sending EU prices soaring to record highs.
Greg Jackson, the CEO of Octopus Energy believes that renewable energy, which is now cheaper than fossil fuels, could turn the UK into a major electricity exporter.
Speaking to Express.co.uk, he said: “Renewable energy was cheaper before the fossil fuel crisis.
“Electricity generated from wind and Sun is cheaper than electricity generated from gas.
“That means that the more renewable energy we build, the cheaper it gets.”
According to Mr Jackson, 15 percent of a typical household’s electricity consumption is currently from renewable sources.
He said: “What that speaks to is our opportunity to transition so much more of our renewable energy into electricity and to drive costs down while we do it.
“Octopus has £3.5billion worth of electricity generation, and we think Octopus alone will need about £20billion of electricity over the next decades to meet these needs.
He added: “For the UK, wind-powered electricity can be a great export as well.
“The more wind generation we got, we have big cables that connect us to France and Norway and we’ll be able to sell the electricity we generate.
“The energy we can export is clean green electricity.
“When we build wind generation here, we use the electricity domestically and when we got spare electricity we can sell it.”
If the UK became a major energy exporter, it would be in the prime position to supplant Russia, which currently provides for 40 percent of the EU’s energy needs through natural gas.
Supplant Russian gas? Clearly neither the Express or Mr Jackson have bothered to do any sums!
So let’s help them.
In 2019, the EU (incl UK) consumed 470 bcm of natural gas, according to Statista:
Excluding the UK, the figure drop to 391 bcm, which equates to 3820 TWh. This is a third higher than the EU’s total electricity consumption of 2892 TWh. About half of that gas came from Russia.
And as we know here, gas consumption peaks much higher in winter, up to about 530 TWh/month. This is equivalent to 746 GW:
https://energyindustryreview.com/analysis/eu-gas-consumption-and-production-in-q1-2020/
In reality, intra-day peaks are even higher. Bearing in mind that we currently have 11 GW of offshore wind capacity, and are targeting 40 GW, I don’t think that will make a dent in Europe’s energy mix, even assuming we have any to spare.
Jackson comments that “when we have got spare electricity we can sell it”. Does he really think that Europe will be happy to shiver in the cold, just waiting for a windy day? Does he think that electricity can be stored in the same way gas is?
Then of course there is the question of inter-connector capacity, which is about 4GW at the moment to mainland Europe. Even if we have oodles of spare electricity, there will be very little capacity to actually export it. And who does Mr Jackson think will end up paying for any extra connector capacity added? It certainly won’t be the wind industry!
As for wind power being cheap, maybe he should consider the fact that even at current sky high levels, the wholesale price of gas is around £60/MWh. This is still much cheaper than any currently operational offshore wind farm, which across the board average £163/MWh.
The “author” of this piece is Antony Ashkenaz, another young twerp interested in climate change, but with little journalistic or worldly experience:
I use the inverted commas deliberately, because it is painfully obvious that this is simply a puff piece, dictated by Octopus Energy.
Is “got” a proper British English word to use in place of “have”? I think this Jackson is a Russian plant.
This comment raises a question. Which way has the power over those cables to France and Norway flowed in the past, and why?
Power frequently goes to France – there were a couple of GW going that way just this morning in fact. It routinely goes to Ireland. The Norway line is only just completing acceptance testing, so we’ll have to wait a month of two on that.
There are also lines to Denmark, Netherlands, Germany (about to enter construction) and Ireland.
The problem is that when you are sending energy to France, you have to pay them to take it.
No, that is simply not true., in fact they take it when prices are very high and they cant meet demand.
Well actually it is true at least some of the time. Take a look at the 12 days of Christmas and see what presents we gave them…. Half hourly settlement period data, with System Sell Prices
More frequently it comes back again.
“Power frequently goes to France”
Just to make clear, it frequently goes the other way a lot, lot more…
(figures from: National statistics Energy Trends: UK electricity)
There is nothing wroing with that graph except how people interpret it. As I have said many many tjkmes, do not confuse arbitrage with necessity.
Britain imports cheap nuclear from france and sells expensivce coal and gas when France cant meet demand
and the Norway line comes ashore on the east coast of the North of England very close to the cables from 2 offshore wind farms.
This is where there has been a huge outcry and major concern over the hundreds of thousands of crabs, lobsters and starfish washed ashore dead, devastating for the local fishing industry. Curiously this phenomenon is confined to a fairly small length of coastline and through which, coincidentally, the 3 power cables run.
This follows hot on the heels of a study published by Swansea University (from memory) that found that the electromagnetic fields around underwater cables ‘mesmerised’ crustaceans causing them to gather around the cables where they experienced major changes in their blood chemistry and were unable to leave the field, that is until washed away dead or dying by tidal currents.
UK government departments have been investigating this crustacean disaster for pollution or some disease as the cause but have drawn a blank ….. one suggestion was it might be an algal bloom , something which I understood is a sun and warm weather event rather than in the cold north sea during the depths of winter ….
Seems they haven’t or don’t want to look at electromagnetic fields as a possible cause – quite understandable as if that is the cause it would not be good for the offshore wind industry.
I pointed Ashkenaz towards the study and local reporters by email but didn’t even get the courtesy of a response from him ……
The first interconnector cable between the North and South Island of New Zealand was destroyed by Sharks who thought the magnetic field was something to eat so they chewed through the cable sheath and caused a cable failure
Undersea cables are prone to failures for other reasons as well – turbidite currents destroy cable, as well as scour. Repairs of undersea cables is a long-expensive process. These cables are getting longer and deeper, for example the Australia-ASEAN planned cable of 4500 km! The cable industry admits to the high costs and problems: https://blog.bisgrp.com/reasons-why-subsea-power-cable-fails-ways-on-how-to-reduce-power-cable-failure/
currently one interconnector cable to France is down and wont be fixed for a long time due to a Fire in the UK reception facility
And France doesnt want UK’s dirty energy they have clean reliable Nuclear
Only problem.
Griff has never been to a single one of the countries he lists, and from his insular stupidity thinks he has the right to spout lies and nonsense about all of them.
This includes nuclear France, one of who’s NPP is literally 30mins from here and supplies 40% of the power for the entire region.
If he actually ever went to DK, NL, F or Germany I could have a little respect, but being as some of us regularly do,and LIVE THERE, I can only say this is ignorant utter bollox iscoming from a f…cking idiot!
France mostly from but fairlyy bidirectional;
Norway mostly from, because Norway has more rain than it needs, Especially when we sell them surplus wind energy at rock bottom prices.
The Norway cable is new – only started up last year. It has spent most of the time supplying the UK, but it has also spent most of the time restricted to 50% of capacity. It is relatively rare that prices in the UK are lower than in Norway (sometimes overnight when it is very windy, and UK prices can actually go negative). Mostly, Norwegian hydro is vastly cheaper – it does face competing pulls from other countries Norway is connected to – Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands, Finland and even a small connect to Russia in the far North. The export demand has put a strain on Norwegian reservoirs, which is partly why they have limited exports. The other reason is that they are finding that exporting means importing high prices into their domestic market, which doesn’t go down too well with the locals who use electricity for most things, including heating.
This map of net flows in Europe in 2021, put together by Paul-Frederik Bach is an interesting guide
http://pfbach.dk/
Here’s a chart of the daily average flows in each direction on each of the GB interconnectors. Note that an interconnector may spend some hours importing, and others exporting on the same day. That happens e.g. to support morning rush hour demand on the continent, or if it is windy overnight when demand is low and the wind dies during the day, or if Ireland’s wind moves from surplus to deficit or vice versa.
Features to note:
GB spent a lot of time supporting Ireland with exports because they were short of wind, effectively requiring extra imports to cover. Irish exports of wind surplus were rarer.
The BritNed line spent a lot of time out of action with cable faults.
The French IFA1 interconnector also suffered major outage from the fire at the converter station at Sellindge, Kent, and has at best been only at half capacity since: prices in the UK spiked with the lack of import capacity in September.
France has had capacity shortages of its own because of extensive nuclear outages, and so has become a more frequent importer in recent months – it has often had the highest wholesale prices in Europe in this period. Capacity shortages in low wind conditions have led to extreme price volatility across Europe.
Just to complete the picture, here’s the history of day ahead power prices. The September spike was a warning of what was to come.
Meanwhile on the retail end of things we have the Octopus Agile Tariff, which is supposed to change to reflect wholesale prices every half hour. There’s a cap of 35p/kWh, but otherwise the principle is the same as the infamous GoGriddy tariff in Texas. The idea is supposed to be that they might even pay you when there’s surplus wind. Here’s a dose of reality
Great synopsis, yes France is having to “temporarily” ease the constraints of carbon emissions laws to allow back-up coal to keep the lights on.
Seems like there’s not enough green to transition into.
I was thinking the same thing myself!
If you have “spare” energy when no one needs it you sell it below cost. Ontario provides that benefit to Michigan consumers. I assume the same thing happens between Britain & other countries.
He took communication in college. Nobody said anything about taking English.
A Puff piece for the green lobby, with the usual Truss Huffing and Puffing about Russia.
The phrase “whistling past the graveyard” comes to mind.
Erect more windmills, and there will be more graveyards for birds.
UK planning regulations are incredibly strict and involve year long surveys of possible impact to bird life. bird deaths on UK wind farms are negligible. More Sea Eagles have been killed by trains than wind turbines… the biggest danger to UK birds of prey is gamekeepers shooting them (illegally)
The Irish sea is festooned with Wind Turbines and seabird populations have been plummeting in inverse proportion to the number of turbines.
Correlation is not causation (except of course for CO2 and temperature) and you will probably find some way to blame humanity.
http://manxbirdlife.im/seabirdcensus2017-18/
I could give you a lot more on this subject – but I fear it would be a waste of time on a zealot.
griff believes whatever his handlers tell him to believe.
And there answer to declining sea bird numbers is:- “There are a number of causes for these declines and the solutions, such as protecting nesting sites, restoring food chains and mitigating climate change, will be challenging.”
Mitigating climate change, so that would mean more bird killing turbines then. Oh man, throws arms in the air. These people just absolutely refuse to see what is staring them in the face. Unbelievable.
Of course declining sea birds numbers would have nothing to do with overfishing. And more recently trawling for small fish to get turned into food pellets for farmed salmon. Not to mention the fact that 1/3 of fish get turned into animal feed and fed to animals like cows and pigs.
Any country in which it is not illegal to feed fish meal to cows is asking for an outbreak of CJD (mad cow disease). All advanced agriculture countries have bans on feeding any animal product to a ruminant animal.
Dare I ask what country you are in Izaak that allows feeding of fish byproduct to ruminant animals?
Step one, send out the employees to clean up all the dead birds.
Step two, send out the scientists to survey the lack of dead birds.
Step three, write a paper proving that windmills don’t kill birds.
Step four, ask for more money so that more surveys can be done.
Griff, never knowingly in touch with reality.
Griff, never knowingly in touch with reality.
griff is so out of touch with reality, if he said he posted on WUWT as ‘griff’ I would be suspicious…
When you’ve found an alternative to trains Griff, get back to us. Meanwhile, we have an alternative to windmills: fossil fuel powered generators!
The numbers of bird deaths due to UK wind farms has been estimated (fairly well and by an advocate of wind energy) to be 11 times lower than the actual number of bird deaths. In essence the wind farms are aware that they are killing huge numbers of birds and bats but are actively hiding the vast majority of the evidence. I forget the name of the report but I’m sure it’s available on the internet.
Apologies – I meant to say that reported deaths are about 11 times lower than actual bird deaths – I didn’t quite make that clear.
You mean the actual bird deaths are 11 times higher than reported?
What happens when all the “safe”
sites have been developed? A moratorium on new wind farms?
In the U.S. we give wind farms waivers from the Endangered Species Act. There’s a reason the waivers are needed.
Bird salad.
The Green New Salad.
Griff, the average wind turbine kills 500 birds and bats every year.
https://windmillskill.com/blog/windfarms-kill-10-20-times-more-previously-thought
It is well worth reading the website that I linked to for the enormity of the cover up of the real death toll of wind turbines around the world. The media blackout of the true fatality figures is quite astonishing. There has been a noticeable decline in bird numbers around every wind farm which has been constructed. This is probably the main reason why populations of birds of prey are falling in developed countries.
I have lived in the countryside since I was a small kid, and I have never ever seen a gamekeeper shoot any bird of prey.
(cos they love to eat rodents).
as usual every time you hit a keyboard you come out with yet more bollox. (And lies).
(f..ckin idiot!
The biggest hazard right throughout Europe right now is feral and wild pigs which thru overpopulation cause massive destruction and often act as carriers of nasties like swine flu.
Hey but how could you know that.
One of my friends works for the Italian forestry and wild species commission.
A few weeks ago,in one saturday morning alone,they shot 50 wild boars!
and for people
Well gosh. It looked good on paper.
We should be surplanting Russian gas with our own, under the North Sea and by fracking where suitable
As an HV Engineer with 42 years industry experience, unreliable and costly renewables wont keep the lights on alone
Wot a load of old codswallop, Just on cue, I was looking out of our window a few minutes ago watching a large cable laying vessel bringing one of those flex’s into Carnoustie bay,
Naturally the vessel is registered in Norway with a Scandinavian crew.
Soon we will be hooked up to the largest offshore windmill array which will supply us with cheap, green constant electricity. (sarc off)
Can some genius on here please explain to this old cold pensioner how it is that, as that clown above says, unreliable windmill energy is cheaper than grown up gas, and his company tells me that the energy he supplies to me is 100% unreliable ( sorry renewable) why are my bills going up by 50%?
At the age of eighty, life is too (did you notice I can spell too?) short to start generating my own from a treadmill.
Only Griff knows.
Griff only knows, now surplants God only knows in the pantheon of exasperated eyes rolled expressions
Greg Jackson CEO of Octopus is a business man appealing to the green blob, not an Engineer, or physicist evidently!
Octopus make what could be construed as misleading website comments, that they supply 100% renewable energy – they do not – they supply customers with electrons, generated by multiple sources, including coal, gas and nuclear, that are vibrating around the Grid – physics and Grid layout dictate this
To get around this, they, and others that claim to supply 100% renewable energy, simply buy renewable industry certificates that allow them to state they are buying their electricity from purely renewable generators, even though it is mixed once on Grid – it is misinformation geared to convince a gullible, climate alarmed Joe public, that all their energy is 100% green, it’s smoke and mirrors for the layman – the electrons coming into homes are from mixed sources – indeed, the only way to guarantee 100% renewable energy would be via a separate, dedicated network, where only renewable sources feed direct to consumers, however, as we know, that supply, without sufficient storage, would be reliably intermittent and very costly!
Why the name Octopus? Perhaps the need for 8 arms to shovel subsidies.
Since you have been there, done that – these price hikes are called HYPERINFLATION. How about 1923, Germany?
Then, the Versailles heist imposed impossible debts and the printing presses ran to burnout.
Today, the entire transatlantic is burdened with $1.5 QUADRILLION nominal debt – and the FED hyper-inflated, sorry, pumped, legendary over years, liquidity.
That is why Bank of England ex-chief Marc Carney at COP26 is ruthlessly after NetZero, and $100 TRILLION. Unfortunately, Sharma’s pitiful whimper there that he could not deliver means here we go again!
Eye-watering deja-vu, what?
G’Day King Coal
“… with our own, under the North Sea …”
Ran into this article a couple of hours ago. Something is being done.
https://climatechangedispatch.com/uk-approves-six-new-north-sea-drilling-fields-green-groups-cry-foul/
How much would that help? Worldmeters is saying the UK imports something like 1/3 of the natural gas it consumes. That same report shows extremely low levels of reserves vs. consumption.
The 6 North Sea licences recently issued will give the UK approx 6 months supply, there is much more to get, add in fracking and there’s decades of gas available
“ which is now cheaper than fossil fuels”
Utter rubbish.
Well… if you squint real hard… and tilt your head to the left… and balance on one leg…
…then yeah, I can see where it might be cheaper. “I guess it all depends on your point of view,” said the blind man.
Don’t forget you need to have your tongue in exactly the right place also. Are these idiots really this stupid, that’s a genuine question. A first class honors in journalism , they forgot to add his third year thesis was on bull-dust and how to use it
old mike: “Are these idiots really this stupid, that’s a genuine question.”
I’d say most are that stupid. Those that go into journalism are too dumb to make it in any of the STEM courses or business/accounting courses of study.
The rest display their stupidity by going into journalism to “make a difference” or “save the Planet”. Uhhhh… what about observing, reporting, and investigating? What about holding the powerful interests’ feet to the fire?
If you want to make a difference, skip college and join the Peace Corps. Helps some 3rd World villages get clean water, electricity, and clean cooking fuels.
Also, I’d say you’d have to be a useful idiot to carry water for the GEBs because once the GEBs obtain unchecked power, the useful idiots are the first to go. Yes, they are too stupid to have learned that.
–
–
BTW, you also have to clamp your pipe in your teeth on the side opposite of the raised foot so everything balances out. 😉
“ which is now cheaper than fossil fuels”
Only if you don’t include several factors. For example, I have never seen in wind/solar cost estimates the cost of building and maintaining the backup power needed when the wind dies at night. Real backup power capable of maintaining power for several days, not tiny battery capacity.
The 100 MWHr battery farm in Australia was much cheered by green power advocates, but simple calculations show that if a 1000 MWe coal plant goes down, the battery farm will hold up that potion of the grid for 6 minutes.
It doesn’t seem like anyone has mentioned that solar PV, wind turbines and even batteries are more expensive now: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Era-of-Cheap-Renewables-Grinds-To-A-Halt.html
Bloomberg reported this month that solar panel prices had surged by more than 50 percent in the past 12 months alone. The price of wind turbines is up 13 percent and battery prices are rising for the first time ever
Thanks for the link. Good article.
The cost competitiveness of renewables is more imaginary than previously.
In our industry raw material prices, principally for steel and brass/bronze, are dictating price quotations which are only valid for a few days, and availability is the worst I’ve seen in a decade.
” . . big cables..”
I like the precision of this man’s thinking.
Sad thing is, millions of people believe this stuff. It will take pain to get them to notice how unrealistic wind power is.
Sky rocketing energy costs might get their attention.
Here in the USA in Maryland, my cost per KwH has dropped 10% in the last 5 years.
That fact should be blasted into the mind of every person in the UK and Germany.
We don’t have renewables much, obviously, in our fuel mix here in Maryland.
Just wait— given half a chance, evangelists of the unreliables in the Sovereign Socialist People’s Republic of Maryland will cram them down your throat. There are pinwheels covering all the ridges of western Maryland and they’re trying to build them offshore.
As a participant in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, the Sovereign Socialist People’s Republic of Maryland is already picking your pocket (and they’re doing it without very many people being aware of it— it’s dishonestly hidden from sight).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Greenhouse_Gas_Initiative
In fact, the only reason the Sovereign Socialist People’s Republic of Maryland has escaped rapidly escalating electricity prices thus far is that PJM has access to abundant Marcellus natural gas production (~33%), lots of coal (~27%) and a nuclear (~28%) generating fleet that was completed prior to Three Mile Island.
See:
https://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations.aspx
Yes, after much resistance to them, there are windmills in western Maryland as dictated by the previous governor. They have ruined the serenity and views of mountainous western Maryland and especially Deep Creek Lake.
“We don’t have renewables much, obviously, in our fuel mix here in Maryland.”
That’s because MD is in PJM. However, if you look at your utility bill, you’ll see that it’s larded up with plenty of ‘green’ nonsense, compliments of your state’s ‘progressive’ utility commission.
There is a small monthly fee of 0.006 cents per KwH for Empower Maryland. This is the green bureaucracy they set up to help Marylanders switch to green energy. Just another job programs for credentialed, useless eaters.
It’s worked out well. I got forgiveness of the sales tax of a new hybrid van I bought in 2019, to the tune of $2400. And, the same agency kicked in $800 to defray the cost of my 240 volt charger for my van.
So, win-win for me.
Sometimes you have to love the green new deal.
Opps. Decimal error. That is 0.6 cents per KwH.
Good for you! Of course, someone else paid for this largess…
Nah. They just print the money, just like they tell you in MMT. What could go wrong?
In reality, it is pure economic madness.
It sounds like they took a press release and edited it into an article.
Britain will be the
Saudi ArabiaVenezuela of wind.Blowback!
London should release the stolen Venezuela gold and tell Guaido to take a hike on the Mass. Pike…
As if there is no wind in Europe?
The same weather systems the provide UK wind provide Europe wind at much the same time. The window is tiny.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is accused of deliberately slashing Europe’s gas supplies to speed up the approval of the Nord Stream 2. Nord Stream 2 is a new pipeline that will transit gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Poland and Ukraine on its route.
This statement is war-mongering BS
EXCERPT from:
THE UKRAINE PLOT IS THICKENING WITH GERMANY AND FRANCE NO LONGER IN LOCKSTEP WITH US/UK-LED NATO
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening-with-germany-and-france-no-longer-in
Up to 40% Additional LNG Carrier Loads, if Russian Pipeline Gas Supply to Europe were Stopped
Brussels RE bureaucrats make the same mistakes as Washington RE bureaucrats
The only beneficiaries are multi-billion companies that supply the wind and solar systems, and Utilities, that would sell much more high-priced electricity due to implementing the “electrify everything” mantra
Everyone else gets screwed with higher taxes, fees and surcharges, and higher household electric rates, as happened in Denmark and Germany.
Those people are told to grin-and-bear-it/sacrifice, because they are “fighting” climate change, a la Don-Quixote tilting at wind mills, while the RE-promoting elites cruise around in private jets and yachts.
Historically, the EU has imported very minor quantities of LNG, because LNG prices are about 25 – 30% higher than pipeline gas bought from Russia, under long-term contracts; that will always be the case, due to cost differences of applicable technologies.
Brussels RE bureaucrats, likely with little hands-on experience in the energy sector, have urged EU countries not to sign long-term gas supply contracts with Russia, because that would send the wrong “virtue signal” regarding “weaning the EU off fossil fuels”. Just google, if you find this incredible.
As a result of Brussels RE bureaucrat myopic decisions, EU spot prices for gas have become “volatile”, i.e., about 5 to 10 times long-term prices
Russia made sure to reliably provide pipeline gas, to clients with signed long-term contracts.
Russia has no contractual obligation to supply gas to the EU spot market.
Russia has no contractual obligations to fill the EU above- and belowground gas storage reservoirs
This was known by Brussels RE bureaucrats, prior to their myopic decisions.
Gas Supply and Prices in the EU
Europe is seeing major increases in the SPOT prices of gas/1000 m3, coal/metric ton, and oil/barrel.
This will have an adverse effect on prices of all goods and services, including at the gasoline pump, building space heating, etc.
The EU SPOT price surge was entirely the fault of EU bureaucrats in Brussels, which have urged EU countries NOT to sign long-term gas supply contracts with Russia, because it would send a “the wrong signal regarding the seriousness of EU fighting climate change”. Just google, if you find this incredible.
Serbia, Hungary and Turkey recently signed long-term contracts with Russia at about $300/1000 m3
Those countries were vilified by EU bureaucrats, and the handmaiden EU Media.
Subsequently, SPOT prices of gas started to increase, and the three countries are smiling.
EU SPOT prices are about $800 to $1500/1000 m3
US SPOT prices are about $100/1000 m3, due to an abundance of fracked, domestic gas. See table.
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/22/business/europe-natural-gas-prices.html
Gazprom expects to export between 175 and 183 bcm of gas to Europe, in 2021, at prices of about $280/1000 m3; long-term contracts.
A below-ground gas storage reservoir has to a total gas volume and a working gas volume, WGV; as gas is withdrawn, the gas pressure decreases.
European gas storage was at 95.65% of WGV, on October 1, 2020, and at 74.14% on October 1, 2021, i.e., significantly below normal in 2021.
If Europe were to have a long and cold winter, economies would stagnate, prices would increase, and people would be suffering.
EU solar electricity would be minimal in winter.
EU wind electricity would not be something to rely on.
https://www.euronews.com/2021/10/25/europe-s-energy-crisis-five-charts-to-explain-why-your-bills-might-go-up-this-winter
NOTE:
In Europe, gas prices are stated as Euro/1000 m3
1 Euro = $1.16
1000 m3 contains 1000 x 35.315 ft3/m3 x 1000 Btu/ft3 = 35,315,000 Btu
EXCERPT from
BIDEN 30,000 MW OFFSHORE WIND SYSTEMS BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-offshore-wind-systems-by-2030-a-total-fantasy
The Biden administration announced on October 13, 2021, it will subsidize the development of up to seven offshore wind systems (never call them farms) on the US East and West coasts, and in the Gulf of Mexico; a total of about 30,000 MW of offshore wind by 2030.
Biden’s offshore wind systems would have an adverse, long-term impact on US electricity wholesale prices, and the prices of all other goods and services, because their expensive electricity would permeate into all economic activities.
The wind turbines would be at least 800-ft-tall, which would need to be located at least 30 miles from shores, to ensure minimal disturbance from night-time strobe lights.
Any commercial fishing areas would be significantly impacted by below-water infrastructures and cables. The low-frequency noise (less than 20 cycles per second, aka infrasound) of the wind turbines would adversely affect marine life, and productivity of fishing areas.
Production: Annual production would be about 30,000 x 8766 h/y x 0.45, capacity factor = 118,341,000 MWh, or 118.3 TWh of variable, intermittent, wind/weather/season-dependent electricity.
The additional wind production would be about 100 x 118.3/4000 = 2.96% of the annual electricity loaded onto US grids.
That US load would increase, due to tens of millions of future electric vehicles and heat pumps.
This would require a large capacity of combined-cycle, gas-turbine plants, CCGTs, to cost-effectively:
1) Counteract the wind output variations, MW, aka grid balancing
2) Fill-in wind production shortfalls, MWh, during any wind lulls
Such lulls occur at random throughout the year, and may last 5 to 7 days in the New England area.
An interesting point about the northern Gulf of Mexico is that the wind diminishes from west to east, S Texas the most as shown by sailing tournaments. Other fact is that the more W/SW you go the steeper and shorter the continental shelf, 30 miles closer to its edge. Where are the oceanographic engineers?
★★★★★
So your $280/’000m3 price equates to $7.93/MMBtu or about 58p/therm or 2p/kWh, £20/MWh compared with the Dutch TTF marker at about €80/MWh currently
★★★★★
Thanks for this post. I realize the Putin is responsible for all of the worlds ills, but the simple fact is gazprom is meeting all of it’s contracted amounts. They just have better things to do than play the EU spot market. It will be a shame if NS2 does not get operational approval, but I don’t think that will necessarily hurt Russia which can sell all that EU gas to south and central Asia, and the second pipeline south from Siberia is well under way.
And US-sanctioned far east fields are being opened for China – see link above…
The EU borrowed, sorry knuckled under, the Enron Houston 2001 spot-price radical free-market (on the side of angels as CEO Skilling blurted out before the pen) and became the Ranch at the Crooked EU :
We need UK gas
If only we could get it
Oh, we can get it reasonably easily, we just aren’t allowed to.
we just aren’t allowed to.
So…. If only we could get it
I heard that exact thing on BBC 2 Politics programme at lunchtime today. Also Zion Lights demolish a green SNP politician. I had to ask my wife to confirm it was the BBC
This warrants a dustoff
These days his steed is called ROCinanticipation of a great payday, not the humble Rocinante.
(Renewables Obligation Certificates are a fantastic subsidy for many windfarms)
“Does [Jackson] think that electricity can be stored in the same way gas is?”
I doubt he has paused to consider it. No Net Zero enthusiast of my personal acquaintance has ever uttered any of these terms in my hearing: “grid-scale storage”, “inverter”, “synchronous condenser”, “dispatchable”—and the list goes on.
Buy now and save!
Was headline typo (importer instead of exporter) a Freudian slip?
Obviously the author is writing from a European perspective. Whether he’s from the UK or not, in some circles, it’s seen as very fashionable to act as if one was still in the EU.
Well we were exporting to France earlier today… and we will be getting 10GW of connections to the EU, with 5 times the current wind power by 2030… which would certainly give us a surplus on days like today…(12GW wind on 26 GW demand as I write…)
However it surprises me to see this in the Express… just shows how far they’ll go to get an anti EU story.
“…we will be getting 10GW of connections to the EU, with 5 times the current wind power by 2030…
You can forecast the future?
Yes this past day wind has been supplying 12.6GW (39.9%) and over the last week 11.9GW.(37.4%) of UK’s electricity. Sounds good until you realise that over the past year wind has supplied only 19.2% compared to Fossil Fuels 41.6%- less than half as much.
https://grid.iamkate.com
So far the Norwegians have backed down on any further interconnection to the UK and Aquind just got cancelled. Are you feeling lucky?
France also told the UK to get lost for another inter-connector 🙂
do note Russia supplies less than 5% of UK natural gas…
Which is why Qatar is laughing all the way to the bank, griff.
We could have cheap gas for decades to come. But you’d rather we all took a large backward step.
It always surprises me that Griff, who obviously lives in his mother’s attic/ basement doesn’t want to improve himself.
At the moment the US has been providing much of what Norway can’t, with Peru roughly matching Russian volumes and some smaller amounts coming from Qatar (though expect more soon, becuase the Asian market is now sated), Trinidad and Nigeria.
While Victor Orban has just secured Hungarian supplies from Vlad. At 1/5 of the EU spot price. BOJO spaffs our borrowed cash all over Ukraine, annoying Vlad.
Just imagine the puking in Brussels!
Truss wants BoJo’s job – the devil you know and the devil you don’t know…
She thinks the Baltic countries, poor things, are on the Black Sea. Navy Target practice anyone?
Not important as seen by the fact your gas price is going up 🙂
Whoever you are buying your gas from can obviously sell it for a higher price to others.
So you have to pay the increased price the basic supply and demand problem.
Try understanding the basic stuff and stop reading the Gruniard it’s garbage.
If Antony Ashkenazi graduated with a first class BA honours degree in journalism at the London College of communication; then it says much about that institution for it seems that honesty, truth and ethics is NOT included in the curriculum.
Finally, an article which speaks the truth about wind power and it’s potential for the future.
I know many people here have read much about how wind power is expensive and unreliable. I now have secret information which shows those claims to be Russian propaganda.
Russia has been shown to do anything and everything to stifle all competition to Russian natural gas. This includes competing natural gas suppliers and wind power especially. They want, and need an open field so they can take over the market and dominate the EU and the UK.
We need to go back a way, and examine things from the start.
Bach at the start of the “fracking revolution” in the US, Russia did everything it could to squelch down this new development. Their efforts even included funding environmental interests and protest groups through companies in Bermuda. This was absolutely a devious scheme.
Next, Russia perceives wind power to be a threat to their natural gas exports. They responded to the threat by launching a full-on disinformation campaign. The Russians are nefarious.
The cunning and calculating Russians have worked to discredit wind at every turn.
What we hear:
Wind power is expensive.
The Russians!
Wind turbines have low capacity factors.
Again, Russia.
Wind turbines do not last through their predicted lifespan.
More Russia!
Wind is unreliable.
Russia, Russia, Russia!
Germany and the UK must not buy Russian natural gas. It is a trap, and they will be sorry. They may stay warm, and the lights stay on, but they will be sorry.
The cunning malfeasance of Russia is incalculable. They are not to be trusted.
No, Russia funded environmental groups opposing fossil fuel industries in the west. For obvious reasons.
“Anders Fogh Rasmussen said: “I have met allies who can report that Russia, as part of their sophisticated information and disinformation operations, engaged actively with so-called non-governmental organisations – environmental organisations working against shale gas – to maintain European dependence on imported Russian gas.” – MSM
Leaving it in the ground as the west has chosen to do was a very big mistake.
The UK has plenty of gas of its own and Europe has its own resources – but they’re leaving it in the ground.
The UK gets most of it’s gas from Qatar, I’d much rather we were using our own.
Wind is a waste of time and much money.
Rasmussen – the ex-NATO chief that makes Stoltenberg look lame? And he quotes ‘allies’ meaning the US and UK? Notice anything lately about these ‘allies’ wild claims? They are blocking NordStream2!
See post above on Russia’s latest hydrocarbon announcement.
Unfortunately for Brits – the green lunacy comes straight from Buckingham, or did you not notice the Princely organizer and keynote speaker at FLOP26?
(sarc case for the humor challenged)
OR Is BUckINGhAm nOw tHE KREmLIN?
And some are not amused :
Six new oil and gas fields to be fired up as Sunak takes action
https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/six-new-oil-and-gas-fields-to-be-fired-up-as-sunak-takes-action
“Russia, Russia, Russia!”
Isn’t that from “The Fraidy Bunch”?
It is from the Horses Mouth, Blinken and Sullivan, a wild west version of His Masters Voice :
Once again, the claim that renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels.
If that were true, why do renewables always have to be subsidized, and why do energy prices go up the more renewables you employ?
While fossil fuel are heavily taxed.
It turns out that BP profits are at more than £9billion and rather than paying a big chunk of that on tax, they turn out to be recipients from the taxpayer. They haven’t paid any tax on N Sea for 5 years, but have received govt money…
Strawman argument and deflection
Company is an entity .. Fosil Fuels is a product
If you want to start that trash start another post and show us the tax paid by renewable generators as a start point so we can compare apples for apples.
New renewables in the UK now come in without subsidy.
They also come with no reliability 🙂
Only in Greentardland is it possible to punish fossil fuels while rewarding “renewables” and then crow about how much “cheaper” renewables are.
Almost all news about green energy (97%) is pay-to-play news.
Russia’s President Putin just announced at least 50 years of hydrocarbon use ahead. With a lot of work, carbon neutrality by 2060.
Meanwhile, in a different Universe, Biden told German Chancellor Scholz that the US would provide LNG to cover if the US goes to war with Russia. Which is impossible.
It is hard to keep up :
See the map here : Russia may use field hit by U.S. sanctions for gas exports to China
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-may-use-field-hit-by-us-sanctions-gas-exports-china-2022-02-08/
And Germany’s foreign minister just nominated American Greenpeace-Chief Jennifer Morgan as special commissioner for International Climate. German nationality pending. Looks like Greenpeace will get into a G7 government.
Six new oil and gas fields to be fired up as Sunak takes action
https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/six-new-oil-and-gas-fields-to-be-fired-up-as-sunak-takes-action
Not everyone is as daft as the FLOP26 circus!
Good. I saw that Nicola Sturgeon has been pushing her new ‘green’ credentials by banning new oil developments – she’s going to have to do a bloody fast u-turn on this just to keep up.
The good Nicola should watch her Step :
Even if wind became cheaper than fossils per kWhr, it still would be a waste. Taking the bus is cheaper than buying a car, but you can only ride when and where the bus schedule allows. For transportation it keeps the poor boxed in, for energy it means a choice freezing or poverty as you need to have a backup that’s used inefficietly.
Obviously, the climate change narrative and the push to massive centralized use of renewables with massive centralized storage and distribution systems only empowers massive collusion of hydrocarbon fuels and puts Putin as the head of a Gazprom global energy cartel. The question is, who benefits the most from colluded energy prices via Putin? And could those individuals be leveraging the climate change narrative propaganda industry?. Obviously, the solution is decentralized generation and storage using local energy sources that make the most sense, (nuke, hydrocarbon, hydro, TEG, Solar Wind etc) Mirco- decentralized systems are a strong hedge against the cartel’s colluded pricing and the consolidation of power and control of energy supply and prices in the global market place. So climate change is in the middle of the conflict between local economies solving their own community based energy needs and he push toward global dependency on the global megalomaniacs. Mirco-decentralized systems need the next-Gen Battery and this is the subtext of the entire discussion today with Russia. The next-gen micro-scale electrical storage and distribution systems are coming amidst a global glut of hydrocarbon fuel. We can be cynical because we have been waiting 50 years for them… but eventually the opportunity will be too awesome to pass up. Until then, Europe needs more LNG ports and NY, PA an TX NG…this is the escalation Putin needs to demonstrate to the world what a turkey he really is.
sorry… forgot coal, which is a excellent local community based energy solution where there is plenty of coal. I live in PA where there is plenty of coal but try to buy and burn the stuff to heat your home! Coal is a victim of the global hydrocarbon energy cartel and it’s climate change propaganda machine. So the Motto for local communities, got sun use it, got wind use it, got coal use it, got oil use it, got NG use it, got peat us it, got methane use it, got lots of grass use horses LOL.
The current research in superconductivity is very well funded and is progressing quickly. At this point, SCMES would be too expensive for micro-storage and distribution systems but would work on larger scale smart grids using many different generation sources (because those systems are extremely durable and long lived): NG/oil turbines/secondary steam turbine, TEGS, wind, solar, traditional coal steam systems etc. For a updated current review of SCME see:
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/2108/1/012038/pdf
“The “author” of this piece is Antony Ashkenaz, another young twerp interested in climate change, but with little journalistic or worldly experience:” all the experience in the world does not fix stupid. There is no hope people like this “author”.
For readers in the USA please be aware that the dear ol Daily Ejaculation is pretty much the intellectual rival of a Marvel comic, complete with Zap! Pow! and superheroes. About 50% of its content is paid for advertising disguised as ‘news’ : the rest is a heady mixture of completely constructed gossip about the royal family, politicians and other celebrities.
I don’t think anyone actually believes a word it says really. I read it and have a good laugh every day.
It is useful to get a handle on what those with money want you to believe this week.
The crossword isn’t too bad.
This piece by Octopus is a strong SELL indicator. Share price topping out because people are waking up to the expense to them personally of ‘renewables’ subsidies. Unease. Sell
I notice the calm sea and consequently the mills not turning. Nothing to export from that lot.
If wind and solar are so much cheaper than gas then all prices for power need to be slashed immediately. With wind and solar so cheap and utility prices so high clearly either the government or corporations are gouging their customers and it has to end now.
Paybacks from UK renewables could cut £27 from bills by end of winter | Energy industry | The Guardian
But they won’t. The Low Carbon Contracts Company has calculated that just £39m will be returned, worth about £1.39 per household. Meanwhile, in April bills are due to rise by £693 for an OFGEM “average” household. The windfarms keep their ROC subsidies on top of market prices propped up by ever soaring UKA prices, now going through £90/tonne CO2e.
Might Go up even more.
“When we first heard yesterday that Europe’s largest energy producer, French EDF (Electricite de France) had paradoxcially again cut its nuclear output target for a second time in a month – despite already ridiculously high energy costs in France and across the continent “
European Electricity Prices Soar After France Cuts Nuclear Output Forecast | ZeroHedge
‘The French nuclear giant, once a source of national pride, has been grappling with several reactor outages that will hit earnings.’
I expect German power will have to bail them out, like last time…
So Germany will bail out France who bail out the UK … eventually you run out of people to bail you out 🙂
From the Guardian there is your problem right there. It will be some econ loon reporter like our moped riding mate Nic … low on fact and high on spin.
Not sure if Ashkenaz is a pod-person :
The Notorious London Spy School Churning Out Many of the World’s Top Journalists
Are these ‘schools’ connected?
Everybody should read “The Octopus: A Story of California” ‘ as a reminder of what happens when Robber Barons are left unchecked. Capitalism needs to be protected from the pathologically greedy who use government (and MSM) to tighten their stranglehold on a free economy. “Octopus” is surely an ironic name for a Robber Baron. Perhaps it is a deliberate sneer at those too stupid to learn from history.
Greg Jackson is a video game programmer. His understanding of anything to do with electric power generation and distribution is worse than zero. He is a danger to society.
He is one of the dangerous people heading the Ponzi scheme that is “renewable energy”.
Giving these people a voice is a sad reflection on the education level in the modern world.
Note the Freudian Slip in the headline. Britain to become a major IMPORTER of energy.
Kek.
730’000 MW avg would need 2.41T pounds (UK) if it costs 1.1M pounds per MW (nameplate capacity), assuming 33% avg capacity factor. Storage & losses may will add to that. YMMV.
Changing gas heaters/cookers for electric would add to that cost.
It would need ground source heat pumps for effective & more efficient energy use in sub-zero C temps. Heat pumps (aircon) are more efficient at the premises than gas but there are losses during generation & transmission (worse with greater distance from the windy north to get it to the south). Modern houses & renovations can have better thermal performance but those old heritage protected buildings & castles will still be hard to keep warm in winter (unless they allow you to cover the lovely stone with bland insulation & newer coverings).
‘but those old heritage protected buildings & castles will still be hard to keep warm in winter’
As I’ve written before, my local Lord installed ground source heat pipes under his rose garden and the 19th century stately home is warm for the first time since it was built…
and this lists a couple of other examples..
Stately homes exploit water features for heat pumps – Modern Building Services (modbs.co.uk)
You note in that article they didn’t give the cost of the heat pump system!!!!!!
Can I have a guess that it was about 50K making the payback on investment over 25 years if nothing breaks down 🙂
Full retard
Meanwhile, the Telegraph reports on the practical consequence of the proposed move to wind.
There are two problems. One is there isn’t enough supply during peak periods, especially with the increased demand which will come from making heat pumps the only way to heat homes and EVs the only kind of permitted cars.
The second is that what supply there is becomes intermittent and unpredictable.
The consequence of the second, unpredictable intermittency, is wildly fluctuating spot rates. This leads to financial exposure for the supply companies. Essentially they are selling long and buying short. They have supply contracts that are longer term than their purchase contracts. Their purchases will vary by the hour, their supply contracts are often fixed price for years, certainly for months, and they are price-capped.
Confronted with the second issue, one solution would be huge amounts of grid storage on tap at all times. However, this is uneconomic and probably impossible to source, install and maintain.
So the next logical solution is to control demand and to transfer the risk. Both can be accomplished by smart meters. The smart meters are hooked up to the heat pumps and the car chargers, and they just cut out during peak periods to control total demand.
But there is also another way of using them. That is, bill the customer by rates which change every half hour. That way if the wind stops, the wholesale price soars, the customer’s bill also soars. The supplier now no longer is at risk having matched his supply and purchase contracts.
This last step has now been announced in the Telegraph (which seems suddenly to have woken up to the developing disaster in UK energy caused by Net Zero).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/08/smart-meter-overhaul-open-gates-surge-pricing/ (unfortunately behind a paywall).
What we are seeing is the consequence of trying to move a nation’s electricity supply on to intermittent generation sources. It brings in a whole bunch of collateral consequences which have never been thought of by the proponents. What its really demonstrating is that the product is not the same. Wind generated power is a different product from conventional base or dispatchable generated power. Its going to be priced differently, it performs differently.
Price comparisons which don’t take account of this have been obviously fallacious for some time. However, what we are now seeing is that a country which attempts to run on intermittent power will look, feel and perform very differently from one we in the industrialized West are used to. Get ready to either have the lights and heating go out without warning. Or get used to having an electricity bill which is unpredictable and fluctuates with the wind.
The climate changers’ idea of stabilizing the grid-
Britain’s National Grid ESO (NG.L) has for the first time awarded a contract to an offshore wind farm to help keep voltage levels in the power network stable, it said on Monday.
The transmission assets of the Dogger Bank C offshore wind farm will provide 200 megavolt amperes of reactive power (MVAr), which is used to maintain network stability, for a 10-year period from 2024, National Grid said.
This will help stabilize voltage on the grid in the northeast of England after the expected closure of Hartlepool nuclear power station in March 2024, it said.
UK Awards Offshore Wind Farm a Contract to Help (oedigital.com)
Join the dots as we’re all unleashed with tremendous opportunity to unlock flexibility at an unprecedented scale-
National Grid ESO and Octopus Energy launch trial to unleash demand flexibility this winter | National Grid ESO
conspire globally and unleash locally-
Telstra, Intellihub in $100 million energy connectivity deal – Strategy – Telco/ISP – Networking – iTnews
Now that is a classic
Wind, like solar, is much more capital-intensive than are CCGT plants. If interest rates go up substantially, then the cost of debt financing for these projects will go up accordingly…and, indeed, with huge amounts of wind/solar development going on all over the world, the aditional capital requirements seems likely to exert a further upward influence on interest rates, in addition to other pressures.
All the wind turbine supplier/installers are bleeding red ink at present after getting involved in offshore wind-
Siemens Energy warns no quick fix for Siemens Gamesa wind turbines | Reuters
COLUMN | Nothing’s right, I’m torn: Saipem and Sapura face a Natalie Imbruglia moment in offshore wind, as Siemens Gamesa fires its CEO! [Offshore Accounts] – Baird Maritime
Ah, well…more subsidies needed.
People strongly favour suppliers who can supply when the buyer wants the item.
I dropped off right after “incredible green energy capabilities.”
In 1955, Lorenz wrote a paper on energy extraction from the atmosphere and showed that the energy refresh rate was ~1 MW/km^2. That paper has been forgotten in recent decades.
Lorenz’ result is, however, mirrored in recent articles on limits of wind development, using computations with mesoscale models. The new results are that the energy refresh rate for the atmosphere saturates at ~1 MW/km^2 – the same number (attached graphic from Adams and Kieth, reference listed on the graphic).
The average onshore wind turbine in Germany has a 2 MW nameplate output and a 125 m diameter rotor. Each wind turbine spacing is a circle 10 rotor diameters in radius, so each turbine is 1.25 km from its nearest neighbor, as dictated by wake physics. Together, the energy recovery rate and the nearest neighbor distance specify the area in Germany (or any other country) required to meet its energy demands with wind energy. German energy demand in 2021 was just over 560 TWh, corresponding to just under 64 GW average power (as electricity). Germany has 350,000 km^2 land area, excluding lakes-rivers.Then, an energy extraction of 1MW/km^2 and an onshore capacity factor of 0.25, Germany needs not 10%, but ALL of its land area to generate its average power needs. Add in the Baltic and North Sea (same energy refresh limit), and Germany is still sadly short of energy on the average, not to mention peak demands, and diurnal variations.
Now, the question for the student is :
Since the same limits apply to GB, can GB replace NG from Russia with wind power?