The Week That Was: 2021-05-08 (May 8, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The man who asks a question is a fool for a minute, the man who does not ask is a fool for life.” — attributed to Confucius.
Number of the Week: – 92,000 years ago
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
What Does This Administration Demand? Starting April 23, the Biden administration held a climate (CO2 restriction) summit during which the political leaders of various countries tried to outbid each other on the extent their country would sacrifice economic wellbeing to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. According to the White House “Fact Sheet”:
“On Day One, President Biden fulfilled his commitment to rejoin the Paris Agreement. Days later, he took executive actions to ensure we tackle the climate crisis at home and abroad – all while creating jobs and strengthening our economy. This week, he held a historic summit with 40 world leaders to show that America is back.
“Over the course of two days and eight sessions, President Biden convened heads of state and government, as well as leaders and representatives from international organizations, businesses, subnational governments, and indigenous communities to rally the world in tackling the climate crisis, demonstrate the economic opportunities of the future, and affirm the need for unprecedented global cooperation and ambition to meet the moment.
“On the first day of the summit, President Biden upped the ante. He announced the United States will target reducing emissions by 50-52 percent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. He underscored America’s commitment to leading a clean energy revolution and creating good-paying, union jobs – noting that the countries that take decisive action now will reap the economic benefits of the future.
“In the United States, the Biden-Harris Administration has mobilized a whole-of-government approach to unleash economic opportunities, create good jobs, and advance environmental justice. From the national to the local level and across all agencies, the federal government is not only working to help those hit hardest by climate impacts, but also creating a more resilient, equitable, and prosperous future.
“While the Biden-Harris Administration has committed itself to addressing the climate crisis, countries across the globe must also step up. Given that more than 85 percent of emissions come from beyond U.S. borders, domestic action must go hand in hand with international leadership. All countries – and particularly the major economies – must do more to bend the curve on global emissions so as to keep a 1.5 degree C limit on global average temperature rise within reach. President Biden’s Leaders’ Summit helped ensure the international community is working together to tackle the climate crisis and support the most vulnerable. Together with the new United States 2030 target along with those announced in the run-up to and at the summit, more than half of the world’s economy is now committed to the pace of action we need to limit warming to 1.5-degree C. And this coalition is growing.” [Boldface added]
The leadership of China was not impressed. Perhaps the leadership of China realizes that the claimed climate crisis and all these grand pronouncements rely on faulty climate modeling, based on the wrong field of physics needed to understand the greenhouse effect and use the wrong evidence (databases) for estimating the greenhouse effect. If the White House cannot get the science, the evidence, and the models right, there is no reason to assume it can get its promises of green jobs and prosperity right.
Or perhaps the leadership of China understands far better than anyone in the White House what extreme poverty is and the importance of fossil fuels in eliminating it.
According to the 2015 Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Summary: Human-induced warming has already reached about 1°C above pre-industrial levels at the time of writing of this Special Report. By the decade 2006–2015, human activity had warmed the world by 0.87°C (±0.12°C) compared to pre-industrial times (1850–1900). If the current warming rate continues, the world would reach human-induced global warming of 1.5°C around 2040.
Since NOAA and NASA-GISS frequently cite data beginning in 1880 in their claims of global warming, it is useful looking at the living conditions in 1880, which Our World in Data provides. The graph “Share of the World Population living in Absolute Poverty, 1820-2015” is useful, and follows standards set by the World Bank.
“The World Bank only publishes data on extreme poverty from 1981 onwards, but researchers have reconstructed information about the living standards of the more distant past. The seminal paper on this was written by Bourguignon and Morrison in 2002.
“
“In this paper, the two authors reconstruct measures of poverty as far back as 1820. The poverty line of 1.90 int.-$ per day was just introduced in 2015, so the 2002 paper uses the measure of ‘one dollar per day’. This difference in the definition of poverty should be kept in mind when comparing the following graph to those discussed in other sections of this entry.
“In 1820, the vast majority of people lived in extreme poverty and only a tiny elite enjoyed higher standards of living. Economic growth over the last 200 years completely transformed our world, with the share of the world population living in extreme poverty falling continuously over the last two centuries. This is even more remarkable when we consider that the population increased 7-fold over the same time. In a world without economic growth, an increase in the population would result in less and less income for everyone. A 7-fold increase in the world population would be potentially enough to drive everyone into extreme poverty. Yet, the exact opposite happened. In a time of unprecedented population growth, we managed to lift more and more people out of the extreme poverty of the past.
“It is very difficult to compare income or consumption levels over long periods of time because the available goods and services tend to change significantly, to the extent where even completely new goods and services emerge. This point is so significant that it would not be incorrect to claim that every person in the world was extremely poor in the 19th century. Nathan Rothschild was surely the richest man in the world when he died in 1836. But the cause of his death was an infection—a condition that can now be treated with antibiotics sold for less than a couple of cents. Today, only the very poorest people in the world would die in the way that the richest man of the 19th century died. This example is a good indicator of how difficult it is to judge and compare levels of prosperity and poverty, especially for the distant past.
“The trend over time becomes more clear if one compares the availability of necessities like food, housing, clothing, and energy. As more and more countries industrialized and increased the productivity of work, their economies started to grow, and poverty began to decline. According to the estimates by Bourguignon and Morrison—shown in the visualization—only a little more than a quarter of the world population was not living in poverty by 1950.”
Using the Bourguignon and Morrison data, in 1880 about 88% of the world’s population lived on less than 2 dollars per day. About 74% lived on less than $1 per day. Death by starvation was not unusual.
Using the World Bank data for extreme poverty of less than $1.90 per day, in 1980 44% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty, in 1990 37%. The economic policy of the government of China changed significantly in 1990. It dramatically reduced regulation of the economy, effecting policies throughout much of Southeast Asia. In 1990, 37% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty, in 2015 less than 10% (projection).
The maps and tables for “The evolution of extreme poverty, country by country” show that for China, in 1990 two thirds of the population lived in extreme poverty, in 2015 less than 1% (0.7%). This is a reduction of 99% in those living in extreme poverty in China. Much of this staggering increase in prosperity is due to the use of fossil fuels.
When he was Secretary of State, John Kerry, Biden’s Climate Envoy, lectured students and businessmen in Indonesia that they should leave their vast coal resources in the ground. In 1984, 71.4% of Indonesia’s population lived in extreme poverty. In 2017, 5.7%, a reduction of 92%. The audience may have been polite and listened, but it is doubtful they are fools. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Seeking a Common Ground.
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China’s Leadership: On May 6, the Rhodium Group, an independent research group which conducts research on topics such as the social costs of carbon, released a report highlighting the direction of China’s leadership in the developing world. In 2019, China emitted more greenhouse gases than the rest of the developed world:
“Each year Rhodium Group provides the most up-to-date global and country-level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates through the ClimateDeck (a partnership with Breakthrough Energy). In addition to our preliminary US and China GHG estimates for 2020, Rhodium provides annual estimates of economy-wide emissions—including all six Kyoto gases—for over 190 countries from 1990-2019. Using our newly updated global emissions data through 2019, we estimate that in 2019, for the first time since national greenhouse gas emissions have been measured, China’s annual emissions exceeded those of all developed countries combined. China’s emissions were less than a quarter of developed country emissions in 1990, but over the past three decades have more than tripled, reaching over 14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent in 2019.”
By coincidence, the start dates are identical for the data. Since 1990 extreme poverty in China has gone down by 99% to less than 1% of the population. During that time, China’s emissions of greenhouse gases have more than tripled and have grown from less than 25% of the emissions of the rest of the developed world, to over 100% of the emissions of the rest of the developed world.
Which form of governance will leaders of developing countries who care for the people of their nation adopt? The form offered by Biden, based on misleading science, and promises that may or may not materialize? Or the form offered by China: relax controls on the economy, use fossil fuels for the benefit of the people. and ignore the empty (no hard evidence) science? According to reporter Liz Peek, Mr. Biden understands his problem and said so in a press conference:
“This is what he said, according to a New York Times transcript of the president’s remarks: ‘The United States accounts, as all of you know, for less than 15 percent of carbon emissions. The rest of the world accounts for 85 percent. That’s why I kept my commitment to rejoin the Paris Accord, because if we do everything perfectly, it’s not going to matter.’”
Unfortunately, Biden appears willing to significantly damage the US economy even if reducing CO2 emissions does not matter. See links under Change in US Administrations and Problems in the Orthodoxy.
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No Climate Crisis: The Independent Institute posted a YouTube video of a February 24 talk given by the Cyrus Fogg Bracket Professor of Physics, emeritus, at Princeton, William Happer at Hillsdale College. Among other fields, Happer specialized in optically polarized atoms in atomic and nuclear physics.
Happer understands the field of physics needed to understand how the greenhouse effect keeps the globe warmer than it would be otherwise and the practical limits of warming from increasing CO2. About 20 minutes into the presentation, Happer discusses radiation transmitted by the atmosphere and the importance of greenhouse gases in keeping the earth from freezing deeply at night. The most important greenhouse gas is water vapor (to include clouds), CO2 is secondary. The Earth’s average surface temperature is about 60 F (16 C), without greenhouse gases it would be about 16 F (minus 9 C).
About 24 minutes into the presentation, Happer presents two graphs. One is based on Max Planck’s curve of frequency of the radiation and thermal power to space. The second is based on Karl Schwarzschild’s calculations of the blocking effect of greenhouse gases. (These calculations have been confirmed by decades of observations and experiments.)
The greenhouse effect of CO2 is saturated, meaning that virtually all the warming it can do, it is already doing. Thus, the claim CO2 may cause runaway greenhouse is contrary to the physics. About 41 minutes in, Happer suggests that the claims of a consensus about global warming are similar to the claims stating there was no continental drift.
About 50 minutes into the presentation, Happer suggests that the major problem in models is that they do not treat clouds correctly, water vapor increasing cloudiness and cooling overwhelms any warming from CO2. If the water vapor feedback existed to the extent suggested in the modeling, the Earth’s climate would be wildly unstable. Climate history indicates that it is extremely stable. Happer suggests that the actual feedbacks are probably negative and involve clouds. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://dof.princeton.edu/about/clerk-faculty/emeritus/william-happer
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Climate Is Everything? On her blog, Climate Etc. Judith Curry takes apart the efforts of the Biden administration to focus on climate and a foolish article in Time Magazine. Climate change has become a vague politically charged movement rather than a meaningful concept. As Curry writes:
“Over the past several decades, the definition of ‘climate change’ has shifted away from the broader geological interpretation. Article 1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines ‘climate change’ as:
“‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.’
“The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, versus climate variability attributable to natural causes. This redefinition of ‘climate change’ to refer only to manmade climate change has effectively eliminated natural climate change from the public discussion on climate change. Any change that is observed over the past century, on whatever time scale, is implicitly assumed to be manmade. This assumption leads to connecting every unusual weather or climate event to manmade climate change from fossil fuel emissions.
“The UNFCCC definition of ‘climate change’ engenders two logical fallacies. The fallacy of the single cause occurs when it is assumed that there is a single, simple cause of an outcome, when in reality it may have been caused by a number of jointly sufficient causes. Climate variability and change are influenced both by natural climate processes and human activity. A jingle fallacy is based on the assumption that two things that are called by the same name capture the same construct. ‘Climate change’ under the UNFCCC definition is a much narrower construct than climate change in the geological sense. Use of the term becomes a jingle fallacy when it is inferred that all climate change – recent and future – is manmade. [A jingle is a catchy phrase such as “Winstons taste good like a cigarette should.”]
“The ubiquitous jingle fallacy surrounding the UNFCC definition of climate change introduces a framing bias. Frames act as organizing principles that shape how people conceptualize an issue. Frames can direct how a problem is stated, what is excluded from consideration, what questions are relevant, and what answers might be appropriate. A framing bias occurs when a narrow approach is employed that pre-ordains the conclusion to a much more complex problem. The narrow framing of climate change as manmade global warming has marginalized natural climate variability. This narrow framing also dominates our understanding of the relationships of humans and society with climate. An assumption is made that future climate change is controlled by the amount of manmade greenhouse gas emissions. Regional causes of climate variability, their impacts and their local solutions are marginalized by the assumption that the causes of climate change and its solution are irreducibly global.
“The term ‘climate change’ doesn’t just connote the science of manmade global warming, but also an entire worldview of society. Hulme (2010) identifies the fallacy of climate reductionism, a form of analysis and prediction in which the interdependencies that shape human life within the physical world are correlated with climate change. Manmade climate change is then elevated to the role of the dominant predictor of societal change. Multiple possibilities of the future are effectively closed off as climate predictions assert their influence over food production, health, tourism and recreation, human migration, violent conflict, etc. Other environmental, economic and social factors that influence these societal problems become marginalized.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Different Views: Steve Koonin, President Obama’s former Science Director, has written a book that is shaking some members of the science establishment. The April 17 TWTW discussed Koonin and his book “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters” which questions the reports of the IPCC and the US National Assessments. Now Facebook appears to be censoring a favorable review by the Wall Street Journal. H. Sterling Burnett of the Heartland Institute wrote a favorable review and Marianne Lavelle wrote an unfavorable review for Inside Climate News. A key part of her review relies on comments by Benjamin Santer who “discovered” the distinct human fingerprint no one else has been able to find. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy and Article # 1.
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A New Threat? The UN Environment Programme and its subsidiary Climate & Clean Air Coalition: “To Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants” have started a new fear campaign on methane. It is obvious they are ignorant of the physics of the greenhouse effect. Water vapor has already saturated the frequencies (wavelengths) where methane is an effective greenhouse gas. Their Global Methane Assessment has a section titled: “The Opportunity” which includes:
“More than half of global methane emissions stem from human activities in three sectors: fossil fuels (35 per cent of human-caused emissions), waste (20 per cent) and agriculture (40 per cent).
“Currently available measures could reduce emissions from these major sectors by approximately 180 Mt/yr, or as much as 45 per cent, by 2030. This is a cost-effective step required to achieve the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1.5° C target.
“There are readily available targeted measures that can reduce 2030 methane emissions by 30 per cent, around 120 Mt/yr.”
The UN is in an aggressive mode to save the world from threats it imagines. See links under Expanding the Orthodoxy.
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Pump-Up Those Normals: NOAA has increased temperature trends by lowering past temperatures. Now it is increasing what it calls normal temperatures, which are warmer than ever. Tony Heller and Paul Homewood expose NOAAs attack on its own credibility. See links under Measurement Issues — Surface
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A Glimmer of Hope: David Whitehouse of GWPF discusses an essay in AAAS Science which is a good example of what TWTW terms Bandwagon Science – if a paper is published, don’t question it; expand on it no matter how poor the evidence is. As Whitehouse reports:
“The emerging doubts, reported in the journal Science, surrounding the quality of research into the effects of ocean acidification on fish behaviour reveal fault lines not only in the culture of science but also in the practice of science journalism.”
See link under Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
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Additions and Corrections: When discussing electromagnetic radiation (including infrared radiation), TWTW has used the terms wavelengths and frequencies in ways that may disturb some readers. The terms are related but distinct. Frequency of light times wavelength of light equals the speed of light. Thus, frequency of light equals the speed of light divided by wavelength of light. Or f = c/λ, where f is the frequency, c is the speed of light, and λ is the wavelength.
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14th ICCC: The 14th International Conference on Climate Change presented by The Heartland Institute will be October 15 to 17, 2021, at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
- The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
- The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
- The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
- The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, Michael Mann, Christiana Figueres, Jerry Brown, AOC, and Neil Ferguson are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 31. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. For a list of past recipients and their accomplishments in earning this honor see http://www.sepp.org/april-fools-award.cfm
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Number of the Week: 92,000 years ago. According to a new paper, in southern-central Africa, humans were using fire to alter their environment 92,000 years ago.
“Fossil and genetic data indicate that Homo sapiens were present in Africa by ~315 thousand years (ka) ago, and archaeological data show notable increases in the complexity of behavior that took place across the continent within the past ~300- to 200-ka span at the end of the Middle Pleistocene (Chibanian). Since our emergence as a species, humans have come to rely on technological innovation, seasonal scheduling, and complex social cooperation to thrive. These attributes have enabled us to exploit previously uninhabited or extreme environments and resources, so that today humans are the only pan-global animal species. Fire has played a key role in this transformation.” [Footnotes taken out.]
See links under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
Dare you to post it on Facebook
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 5, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Is There a Climate Crisis? The Science Says Not Now and Not in the Future
Featuring William Happer, Independent Institute, at Hillsdale College, Apr 26, 2021
Recent global warming has been ‘part of the natural processes’ of climate: Retired Meteorologist
Video featuring William Kininmonth, The Bolt Report, Daily Telegraph, AU, Accessed May 4, 2021 [H/t Climate Depot]
What Climate Emergency?
By Charles Battig, All About Energy, 2021
A set of appropriate slides
Fantasy Versus Reality In Woke-Land
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, May 6, 2021
Link to: 2021 Annual Energy Paper
By Michael Cembalest, JP Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, May 2021
Climate is everything
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. May 2, 2021
Climate Alarmist Claim Rebuttal Summary
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, May 2, 2021
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/alarmist_claim_rebuttals_updated/
Fifty years of failed renewables predictions
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 8, 2021
Shale revolution makes extreme global warming scenarios implausible
Many climate modelers are still using false assumptions that are no longer credible
Press Release, GWPF, May 7, 2021
Link to a report: A Saviour Spurned: How fracking saved us from global warming
By Tim Worstall, GWPF, 2020
“The good news is that the worst predictions of climate change aren’t going to come true. The bad news is that they never were going to and we’ve been misled all these years.
Climate Science Is ‘Unsettled,’ Says Obama Science Director
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Change Weekly, May 6, 2021
Defending the Orthodoxy
Dissecting ‘Unsettled,’ a Skeptical Physicist’s Book About Climate Science
Five statements author Steven Koonin makes that do not comport with the evidence.
By Marianne Lavelle, Inside Climate News, May 4, 2021
FACT SHEET: President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate
Press release, The White House, April 23, 2021
Global Warming of 1.5 ºC
FAQ 1.2, UN IPCC, Special Report, 2015
How to detect, resist and counter the flood of fake news
Although most people are concerned about misinformation, few know how to spot a deceitful post
By Alexandra Witze, Science News, May 6, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Puts the New York Times, Washington Post, and CNN as the most trustworthy media outlets, based on an analysis of tweets?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
David Whitehouse: Science needs more whistleblowers and more questioning
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, May 7, 2021
Link to essay: Does ocean acidification alter fish behavior? Fraud allegations create a sea of doubt
By Martin Enserink, AAAS Science, May 6, 2021
Humans were altering ecosystems with fire some 92,000 years ago
By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), May 5, 2021
Link to paper: Early human impacts and ecosystem reorganization in southern-central Africa
By Jessica C. Thompson, Science Advances, May 5, 2021
The truth about Joe Biden’s climate summit: Unrealistic pledges revealed as grandstanding
By Staff, Financial Times, Via GWPF, May 3, 2021
Climate change: how bad could the future be if we do nothing
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 6, 2021
Climate change: how bad could the future be if we do nothing? – Watts Up With That?
Do we really want to go to war for the climate?
The British defence establishment is spoiling to become the global climate police.
By Ben Pile, Spiked, May 4, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Nothing like mission creep to give the military relevance, we have to kill them to save them?]
Materials Acquisition for Global Industrial Change (MAGIC)
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, May 4, 2021
Liz Peek: Joe Biden, after 100 days, finally talks truth — cutting US carbon emissions won’t matter
Biden delivered a whopper that went unnoticed on Wednesday night.
By Liz Peek, Fox News, May 1, 2021
Biden’s U.S. Emissions Reduction Scheme Repeats Past Failures That Promote More Global Emissions Increases
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, May , 2021
Gaslighting Meat
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 2,2021
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China emitted more greenhouse gasses than US, developed world combined in 2019: analysis
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, May 6, 2021
Link to report: China’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Exceeded the Developed World for the First Time in 2019
By Kate Larsen, et al. Rhodium Group, May 6, 2021
China undercuts China
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 5, 2021
“It seems pretty clear. Though tt’s painful to admit that, whatever their ideological and other failings, the Chinese leadership seem to have a better grasp of energy economics and indeed of science, climate and otherwise, than Western leaders who, for instance, wear a mask to Zoom.”
China has ‘no other choice’ but to rely on coal power for now, official says
By Evelyn Cheng, CNBC, Apr 29, 2021
China: “renewable energy … intermittent and unstable, we must rely on a stable power source”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 3, 2021
China’s Thermal Power Output Still Rising
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2021
They don’t miss a thing
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 5, 2021
“Agent 007, meet Inspector Clouseau. Because China has no Paris commitments worth monitoring.”
[SEPP Comment: See links immediately above.]
Seeking a Common Ground
Global Extreme Poverty
By Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Our World in Data, 2013 revised in 2017 & 2019
Peter Ridd: New fraud allegations deepen global science scandal
By Peter Ridd, Australia, Via GWPF, May 7, 2021
“The major institutions are deceiving the public about the reliability of their work.
“We are supposed to trust them but how can we?”
The Cooling Side of Greenhouse Gases
By Jim Steele, His Blog, May 6, 2021
http://landscapesandcycles.net/the-cooling-side-of-greenhouse-gases.html
Science, Policy, and Evidence
How science has been corrupted
The pandemic has revealed a darkly authoritarian side to expertise
By Matthew Crawford, UnHerd, May 3, 2021 [H/t GWPF]
Government Distrust Fuels Vaccine Skepticism. What Can We Do About It?
By Cameron English, ACSH, Apr 28, 2021
Lockdowns are No Substitute for Focused Protection
By Paul Alexander, American Institute for Economic Research, May 3, 2021
Merkel urges richest nations to up climate game despite Covid
By AFP Staff Writers, Berlin (AFP), May 6, 2021
[SEPP Comment: They talk as if their government budgets determine the success of the nation.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Mercuric Oxide Pollution is Fully Ameliorated by Elevated CO2 in Maize Plants
Saleh, A.M., Hassan, Y.M., Habeeb, T.H., Alkhalaf, A.A., Hozzein, W.N., Selim, S. and AbdElgawad, H. 2021. Interactive effects of mercuric oxide nanoparticles and future climate CO2 on maize plant. Journal of Hazardous Materials 403: 123849, doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2020.123849. Mary 5, 2021
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/may/a1.php
Model Issues
Oh, that modeling problem
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 5, 2021
New NOAA climate ‘normals’ warmer than ever
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, May 4, 2021
Link to article: NOAA unveils new U.S. climate ‘normals’ that are warmer than ever
Drawing from the latest decade of weather data, the new normals are a reflection of climate change.
By Bob Henson and Jason Samenow, The Capital Weather Gang, The Washington Post “Democracy Dies in Darkness” May 4, 2021
“The official calculation of what constitutes “normal” U.S. climate has been updated — and to virtually nobody’s surprise, it’s a warmer picture than ever before.”
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below!]
NOAA Takes Climate Cynicism To A New Level
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 5, 2021
Washington’s new climate ‘normals’ are hotter
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 6, 2021
The New Pause lengthens by two months to 6 years
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, May 3, 2021
Uncovered: CO2 In Modern Ice Reaches 900 – 70,000 ppm – Wildly Incompatible With Atmospheric Levels
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 6, 2021
Link to latest paper on the subject: Snowpack fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide from high Arctic tundra
By Norbert Pirk, JGR Biogeosciences, Nov 14, 2016
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for April 2021: -0.05 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, May 2, 2021
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/05/uah-global-temperature-update-for-april-2021-0-05-deg-c/
“The global cooling impact of the current La Nina is being fully realized now in global tropospheric temperatures.”
Global Temperature Report
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, April 2021
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2021/April2021/202104_Map.png
Graph: Dec 1978 to April 2021: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2021/April2021/202104_bar.png
[SEPP Comment: The past two months have been below the 30-year average.]
Which is the most accurate satellite-derived temperature dataset?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 5, 2021
Link to paper: Christy, J.R., Spencer, R.W., Braswell, W.D. and Junod, R. 2018. Examination of space-based bulk atmospheric temperatures used in climate research. International Journal of Remote Sensing 39: 3580-3607.
Changing Weather
April 2021
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 4, 2021
April’s lowest average minimum temperatures since 1922
Press Release, Met Office, Apr 30, 2021 [H/t GWPF]
Europe’s Frosty Spring: Germany Sees Coldest April in 40 Years… Frost Frequency Of “Unusual Dimension”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 2, 2021
Surprising Results: Global Snowfall Rate Increases 3% Over The Past 40 Years
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 5, 2021
[SEPP Comment: No significant global change. Decrease in Northern Hemisphere, increase in Southern Hemisphere.]
Changing Climate
Aargh, what’s this, scientific debate?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 5, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Discusses The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850.]
Tree Remains Found Buried Beneath Today’s Glaciers Date To The Warmer-Than-Today Medieval Warm Period
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 3, 2021
Link to chapter in a book: A Review of Abisko Case Study: Recent and Past Trees an Climates at the Arctic/Alpine Margin in Swedish Lapland
By Leif Kullman, in Challenging Issues on Environment and Earth Science Vol. 2, March 5, 2021, Mustafa Turkmen, editor
Changing Seas
Scientists reveal links between migrating Gulf Stream and warming ocean waters
Gulf Stream migration makes Northwest Atlantic Shelf one of the fastest-changing regions in global ocean
Press Release, NSF, May 3, 2021
Link to paper: Changes in the Gulf Stream preceded rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf
By Afonso Gonçalves Neto, Joseph A. Langan & Jaime B. Palter, Nature Communications, Apr 20, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Does the changing Gulf Stream influence Atlantic hurricanes? Joe Bastardi thinks so.]
Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius could reduce sea level rise by 50 percent: research
By John Bowden, The Hill, May 5, 2021
Link to paper: Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise
By Tamsin L. Edwards, et al. Nature, May 5, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Will the geothermal vents under the Antarctic ice comply with the UN? See link immediately below.]
“We Can’t Stop Rising Sea Levels”–Tamsin “Canute” Edwards
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 6, 2021
See link immediately above.
This time it’s different
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 5, 2021
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Debunked: New Computer Simulated Pine Island Glacier Doomsday Paper By Rosier et al Ignores Lots Of Science
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 1, 2021
Link to paper: The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
By Sebastian H. R. Rosier, The Cryosphere, Mar 25, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Another paper on falling off the edge of the earth?]
Polariced Mysteries
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, May 4, 2021
Lowering Standards
BBC’s Fake Victoria Falls Report
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Floods could triple across Himalayas, Tibetan Plateau as planet warms
By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), May 6, 2021
“We are talking a few decades not centuries — these are timeframes that demand the attention of authorities and decision-makers,” said Stoffel, professor at the Institute for Environmental Sciences.
[SEPP Comment: Unable to find link to paper. According to the website of Stoffel: “My research focuses on Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C-CIA), with the aim to understand, document and quantify fundamental environmental processes …” https://c-cia.ch/team-members/markus-stoffel/]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Wild Exaggeration and Egregious Lies
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, May 6, 2021
Gaslighting Fires
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 3, 2021
Biden Cancels Inconvenient Historical Wildfire Data
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 4, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Is this an indication that no reports from government agencies during this administration can be trusted?]
NIFC Suppressing Historical Dept Of Commerce Wildfire Data
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 5, 2021
“A follow up to yesterday’s post on the cover-up of pre-1983 wildfire data:”
Fake Himalaya Lockdown Footage Originated In Attenborough Film
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 2, 2021
Will The World Become Uninhabitable?
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 3, 2021
“Experts say that Phoenix will become uninhabitable due to ‘climate change.’”
[SEPP Comment: The increasing uninhabitable conditions of the city is causing people to move there; resulting in more urban heat, particularly at night?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
52 percent say there is a climate emergency: poll
By Julia Manchester, The Hill, May 3, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Headed by an image of a steaming earth!]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Eco-anxiety
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. May 6, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Recognizing the harmful effects of propaganda, acid rain, etc.]
“Eco-Distress” Is A Meaningful Response To Climate Emergency, Say Psychiatrists
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2021
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Climate alarm is causing a ‘mental health catastrophe’
Rising Number Of Children Treated For ‘Eco-Anxiety’
Reminder By Staff, GWPF of a 2019 article in The Daily Telegraph, May 6, 2021
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Cutting methane emissions key to slowing warming: UN
By Kelly MacNamara, Paris (AFP) May 6, 2021
Link to report: Global Methane Assessment: Benefits and Costs of Mitigating Methane Emissions
Assessment Chair, Drew Shindell, United Nations Environment Programme, 2021
Questioning European Green
Net zero leccie: Green Jersey faces blackouts as France threatens to cut off electricity
By Staff, The Telegraph, Via GWPF, May 5, 2021
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Fueled by China, Coal Still Firing in SE Asia despite Environmental Concerns
By Nithin Coca, Benar News, Apr 30, 2021 [H/t GWPF]
Climate alarmists could ‘cancel’ your pets
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 6, 2021
Funding Issues
NSF 101: Five tips for your Broader Impacts statement
Editorial By Tammy Wilbert and Vincent Tedjasaputra, NSF, Accessed May 4, 2021
“Align your statement with your interests, expertise and community needs.”
“Full participation of women, persons with disabilities and underrepresented minorities in STEM.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Excessive renewable energy subsidies are now a major obstacle to Net Zero
Editorial, GWPF, May 6, 2021
U.S. Renewables – Current and Potential Output
By Stanislav Jakuba, Master Resource, May 4, 2021
“More than $3 trillion has been spent on the renewable energy effort since 2004, and the figure has now stabilized at about $300 billion for each one of the last six years. For a cost comparison, the earlier mentioned nuclear power plant – another source of clean and green electricity and also heat – cost $4 million, inflation adjusted. Not billions, just millions. Hundreds of them could have been producing power for the money spent on renewables today, making our country and the world cleaner and richer as a result.”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA proposes major rule to reduce certain greenhouse gases
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 3, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Continuing attack of HFCs used for refrigeration and air conditioning under the guise they cause global warming.]
EPA official directs agency to ramp up enforcement in communities hit hard by pollution
By Zac Budryk, The Hill, May 4, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Can the EPA correctly identify pollution?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
How to and how not to cut UK electricity bills
By John Constable, GWPF, May 6, 2021
Link to report: Options for Energy Bill Reform
By Rachel Wolf, Jonathan Dupont and Ruth Newton, Public First, Accessed May 7, 2021
http://www.publicfirst.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/OptionsEnergyBillMaster.pdf
[SEPP Comment Critique of the report that examines the decarbonization of heat (using electric heat pumps) in Germany, France and The Netherlands. The report assumes: 1) that subsidies for wind and solar are necessary for decarbonization and 2) subsidies should be hidden from use of public funds by various user fees.]
UK faces electric shock: Jersey fishermen row shows our reliance on Europe for power could land us in big trouble, expert warns
By Harriet Line, Daily Mail, May 6, 2021
Energy Issues – Australia
Be gone all you gas cookers and heaters in Victoria! We need colder weather. Seriously?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 6, 2021
Energy Issues — US
Two Climate Plans: One Based on Common Sense, the Other Rooted in Fantasy
By Heather Reams, Real Clear Energy, May 02, 2021
TVA, Eyeing Coal Phaseout by 2035, Will Rely on Nuclear
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, May 5, 2021
“The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) expects to phase out its coal generation by 2035 but achieving net-zero carbon emissions without raising power prices or adversely affecting reliability will require substantial investments in energy storage and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). TVA also will need to extend the lifetime of its nuclear power and adopt the use of small modular reactors (SMRs), said Jeffrey Lyash, its president and CEO.”
Can US states afford to meet net-zero emissions targets by 2050?
By Mark Dwortzan for MIT News, Boston MA (SPX), May 04, 2021
Link to paper: The role of cross-border electricity trade in transition to a low-carbon economy in the Northeastern U.S
By Mei Yuan, Karen Tapia-Ahumada and John Reilly, Energy Policy, July 2021
[SEPP Comment: The solution is buying hydropower from Canada!]
Fixing ERCOT, the Texas Grid
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: ERCOT’s path to blackouts.]
The U.S. Will Need a Lot of Land for a Zero-Carbon Economy
By Dave Merrill, Bloomberg, April 29, 2021 | Updated: May 2, 2021
Updates to acknowledge an opposing perspective and related study.
[SEPP Comment: A graph in the report “Power Densities: Renewables Need More Space” shows hydropower needing great land area. The creator may have included the entire watershed where rains fall. Also in the following, graph including biofuels distorts the relationships.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
FERC as Climate Enforcer
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 4, 2021
[SEPP Comment: With FERC in control, everyone should be on the path of higher electricity rates and frequent blackouts.]
Different Strokes For Different Folks – When It Comes To FERC, Oil And Gas Really Are Distinct
By Rick Smead, RBN Energy, May 6, 2021
The ‘Temporary’ Biden Pause on Fossil-Fuel Leasing on Federal Lands
By Benjamin Zycher, National Review, Apr 30, 2021
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Shut U.S. coal plants seen as potential sites for small reactors
By Timothy Gardner, Reuters, Apr 28, 2021
Surry Nuclear Plant Gets 20-Year Extension as Indian Point Goes Dark
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, May 6, 2021
China is the Fastest growing Nuclear Power in the world
By Jo Nova, Her Blog May 4, 2021
“’It is sobering to know that despite the rapid growth of nuclear, it is still only 5% of the total energy supply in China.’* World Nuclear Association”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Joe Biden’s Offshore Wind Energy Mirage
The reality is a lot of turbines, not much energy.
By Craig Rucker, Real Clear Energy, May 6, 2021
The Subtleties of Wind Energy in Washington State
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 5, 2021
“You might think that Puget Sound is windy, but that is simply not the case; only along the coast is wind sufficient for wind energy in western Washington.”
[SEPP Comment: The suitability of locations varies by time of year.]
Wind Power Collapsed During April
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 5, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
The Guardian Finally Wakes Up to the Climate Friendly Hydrogen Economy Joke
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 6, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Denmark’s largest battery – one step closer to storing green power in stones
By Staff Writers, Aarhus, Denmark (SPX), May 01, 2021
“The technology, which stores electrical energy as heat in stones, is called GridScale, and could become a cheap and efficient alternative to storing power from solar and wind in lithium-based batteries. While lithium batteries are only cost-effective for the supply of energy for short periods of up to four hours, a GridScale electricity storage system will cost effectively support electricity supply for longer periods – up to about a week.”
Storing large scale renewables with basalt stones
By Emilian Bellini, PV Magazine, May 4, 2021
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Manufacturers call for petrol and diesel car ban to be delayed – ‘Tough and demanding’
Plans for a petrol and diesel car ban to be introduced by the end of the decade have taken a major setback as car manufacturers call for the scheme to be pushed back by five years.
By Luke Chillingsworth, UK Express, May 5, 2021
Australia Transport Authority Says “No” To Tesla Battery-Powered Truck…Too Big Due To Gigantic Batteries?
Tesla “Semi” truck not approved in Australia
By AR Göhring (EIKE), Via No Tricks Zone, May 4, 2021
From The Driven: “Under existing regulations, trucks are only allowed to use Australian roads if they are 2.5 metres wide or less. Tesla says its Semi trucks are between 30 and 50 millimetres wider than that, although they confirm to rules in the United States, where the limit is 2.6m, and in the European Union, where it is 2.55 metres.” https://thedriven.io/2021/03/22/tesla-says-australia-will-miss-out-on-semi-electric-truck-unless-road-rules-changed/
California Dreaming
California Grid Frailty: Imported Power/Solar at Issue
By Wayne Lusvardi, Master Resource, May 5, 2021
State Of Superstition
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 5, 2021
“There is science, logic, reason; there is thought verified by experience. And then there is California.”― Edward Abbey
[SEPP Comment: Banning gas-powered outdoor power equipment to save the earth!]
Other Scientific News
An animal able to regenerate all of its organs even when it is dissected into three parts
A surprising discovery in the Gulf of Eilat [H/t WUWT]
News Release, Tel-Aviv University, May 3, 2021
Link to paper: And Then There Were Three…: Extreme Regeneration Ability of the Solitary Chordate Polycarpa mytiligera
By Tal Gordon, et al. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology, Apr 15, 2021
Other News that May Be of Interest
Mises on Resources: Short, Sweet, Definitive
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, May 6, 2021
“Friedman famously said that there was only good and bad economics, not schools of thought (Keynesian, neoclassical, Austrian). To Mises there was not only this but also real-world economics versus correct-but-irrelevant (and misleading) hypothetical economics.”
Plastic pollution: Chinese scientists identify polythene-eating bacteria
Combination of three types of organisms found to cause ‘obvious damage’ to films of polythene, team from the Institute of Oceanology says
Independent expert says results are the best he has ever seen, but more research is needed
By Cheryl Heng, South China Morning Post, May 2, 2021
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
An industry with legs: Australia’s first edible insects roadmap
Press Release, CSIRO “Australia’s National Science Agency, Apr 21, 2021
Link to report: Edible insects: A roadmap for the strategic growth of an emerging Australian industry
By Ponce-Reyes and Lessard BD, CSIRO, April 2021
Guardian Selling Maldives Holidays
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 6, 2021
“Having lectured us about rising sea levels already today, the Guardian wants us to go on holiday to the drowning Maldives:”
[SEPP Comment: Opportunities are going fast? Are vacation homes being offered?]
RAF To Go Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 5, 2021
From Newspaper article: “…the Defence Secretary announced in December last year that algae, alcohol, and household waste would power RAF fighter jets to cut carbon emissions.”
Stupid Alps
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 5, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Call the Alps back from its funeral?]
ARTICLES
1. Facebook’s Book-Banning Blueprint
The company throttles a Journal review on climate science.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, May 7, 2021
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“Amazon this year started its foray into politicized book-banning, pulling a three-year-old book on transgender policy by a conservative think-tanker from its web store. Facebook doesn’t sell books, but it can suppress their distribution when they conflict with a political agenda. The social-media giant now appears to be throttling a Wall Street Journal review of a book on climate science by physicist Steven Koonin, the former top scientist at the Obama Energy Department and provost of the California Institute of Technology.
“Facebook uses so-called fact-checkers to tell it which news articles to suppress. The project has gone far beyond curbing viral hoaxes or dangerous misinformation and aims to limit scientific debate. In March Facebook flagged a Journal op-ed by Johns Hopkins surgeon Marty Makary on the pace at which Americans would develop herd immunity to Covid-19.
“The company now targets the Journal’s book review based on a gazillion-word post on a site called Climate Feedback with the headline, ‘Wall Street Journal article repeats multiple incorrect and misleading claims made in Steven Koonin’s new book ‘Unsettled.’’
“Mr. Koonin, whose careful book draws extensively on existing scholarship, may respond on the merits in a different forum. Suffice it to say here that many of the ‘fact check’ claims relied on by Facebook don’t contradict the underlying material, but instead argue with its perceived implications.
“The fact-check attacks Mr. Koonin’s book for saying the ‘net economic impact of human-induced climate change will be minimal through at least the end of this century.’ Minimal is in the eyes of the beholder, but the U.S. National Climate Assessment predicted America’s climate costs in 2090 at about $500 billion per year—a fraction of the recent Covid stimulus in an economy that could be four times as large.
“The fact-check on the statement that ‘global crop yields are rising, not falling’ retorts that ‘while global crop yields are rising, this does not constitute evidence that climate change is not adversely affecting agriculture.’ OK, but that’s an argument, not a fact-check. By the way, would articles that imply declining crop yields be slapped with warning labels? We doubt it. The censorship only goes in one direction.”
The editorial discusses attacks on Facebook by politicians then concludes:
“If reviewers can’t engage thoughtful if provocative books even by leading scientists without their pieces being throttled on social media, then those books won’t sell. Facebook is demonstrating a new blueprint to force inconvenient books out of the marketplace. If this continues, the marketplace, and perhaps the courts and political system, will have to find a way to respond.”
That’s really good information about extreme poverty, fossil fuels, etc, but a picture is worth a thousand words. Can we have some charts please?
“The greenhouse effect of CO2 is saturated, meaning that virtually all the warming it can do, it is already doing.”
I’m trying to understand this. As more CO2 is added- why can’t it do extra warming? If it’s like a blanket, then if you double it – why isn’t it like having 2 blankets? If more water is added to the atmosphere- doesn’t that increase warming? I really want to understand this. I have watched videos by Happer and others trying to explain this but I just didn’t get it.
I just read the climate sensitivity section of the “skeptical science” web site- at https://skepticalscience.com/climate-sensitivity.htm
The alarmists certainly seem certain they have the truth. I don’t know enough to know what’s wrong with their logic. If I were wealthy I’d hire a team of scientists to deconstruct that entire blog site point by point- the way that site attempts to deconstruct every skeptical argument.
It’s not so much that I’m 100% certain the skeptical perspective is correct- I just don’t like when any politically charged debate, like the impending climate emergency, has turned into what seems like a religion. Other science debates don’t have such immense political and economic consequences.
Joe, allow me to try a simplified explanation. Let’s say at earth’s temperature it can only emit 100 photons that are absorbable by water and CO2. As of this moment water is taking up 75 and CO2 is taking up 24. This leaves 1 photon left to be absorbed. Since water and CO2 fight for same photons there is no guarantee that adding another CO2 molecule will do anything.
This is simplified but gives general idea of there is nothing left that CO2 can do.
hmmmm…. so you think the ECS is zero or almost zero? And you’re saying almost all photons are already absorbed- but is that the case? If not, then there are more that more CO2 molecules could absorb- then reflecting some of that energy back down. At what level of CO2 did what you say occur? Already by the beginning of the industrial age? Or sometime since then?
I’m hoping you’re right or at least that the ECS is very low so we can ignore “carbon pollution”- for 2 reasons. First, I’m not concerned about a mild warming and think it’ll be a good thing. Second, the forestry world lost the woody biomass battle based on the “carbon pollution” theory and I know as a fact, that harvesting wood for biomass is good because in many areas it’s the only market for “junk wood”- and that allows us to do better forestry work. If the “carbon pollution” thing is false- then carbon emissions from burning wood are not a problem. Unfortunately, some here think woody biomass is just another phony renewable- but that’s wrong- because it is renewable and it can provide baseload power- and it means better forestry, not the destruction of forests as with solar and wind “farms”.
So, I have a strong interest in understanding the ECS. I have more confidence in scientists who don’t have a vested interest in spreading the fear of an emergency.
CO2 at over 400 ppm is already doing most of its capability. Double it to over 800 ppm will not double its effect which only involves certain IR wavelengths….the IR wavelengths do not double. CO2 effect is not linear…more logarithmic curve.
Right- it’s logarithmic- I get that- everyone seems to agree- but they don’t agree on what the final number is- that is, the ECS. If high, then it’s a problem- if low, not so much. The fact that this isn’t resolved is proof that the science is not settled- yet I hear that every day and it’s very annoying. Because it’s not resolved- it’s premature to talk about spending trillions to fix the problem. If it takes a trillion dollars of research to get a definitive number for the ECS- then that should be where the first trillion goes.
Joseph
Go to the William Happer YouTube link in this article; go to the graph at 20:54.
Note that the two major CO2 absorption features (4th panel from the top) in the IR region (dark gray) are flat-topped. They are already absorbing 100% at the wavelength center! There will be some broadening of the wings as the concentration increases, and the flat top will get a little wider, but it won’t have a significant impact on the IR radiating to space, particularly since it overlaps with H2O. Look at the 3rd panel from the top, which shows that the total absorption is already 100%, at about the CO2 peak, to beyond 70 microns. Increasing CO2 concentration will slowly cause the shoulder of the total absorption to move to the left (shorter wavelengths), but the impact should be negligible.
Cloth blankets work largely by preventing conduction of body heat to the air, although reflective mylar ‘blankets’ principally prevent radiation loss. But, both work across wide wavelengths. CO2 absorbs at a narrow wavelength and doesn’t address the conduction loss. That is why the “2 blankets” isn’t a good analogy.
Excellent point about poverty and fossil fuels. Wasn’t it FDR that oversaw the Rural Electrification Agency to bring electric power and telephony to the dirt farmers of the depression era? Building huge hydro projects and coal plants that would be impossible today? How is it historically acceptable to bring the poor folks of the 30s out of poverty using fossil fuels but not the poor folks of the 2000s in Africa etc.? The hypocrisy, it burns.
But even beyond that, Warming is good for Humans. Don’t know why they start at 1880, but before that was the very depths of the Little Ice Age. Widespread crop failures and famines for almost a hundred years. The excellent book “A Cultural History of Climate” by Wofgang Behringer covers this. One of the core causes of the French Revolution was widespread famine starting in the “glorious pre-industrial climate age” around 1750. 1817 was known as the “year without a summer” leading to unrest as well.
When large percentages of the population are only one bad harvest away from death by starvation, poverty is inevitable. And it is a grinding, hopeless poverty we can only dimly imagine today. Fossil fuels, international trade and GMO foods have almost eliminated that kind of scenario. Insane politicians of today want to return to it!
The Rural Electrification Act provided LOANS to private enterprise to bring electricity into rural America. LOANS, not grants. All those local REA cooperatives had to pay those loans back. There is no reason why the same couldn’t be done today except that government regulation on everything, especially by the EPA, prevents the projects from ever being approved.
Some active climate changers confront scarcity with their prescriptive solutions to their perceived problem with plant food-
Smart Charging Trial | AGL
Insufficient recycling of rare metals could hinder climate efforts, experts warn (msn.com)
“ Happer discusses radiation transmitted by the atmosphere and the importance of greenhouse gases in keeping the earth from freezing deeply at night.”
Unfortunately, Dr. Happer has this backward. CO2 and water vapor are indeed saturated with incoming radiation in sunlight, absorbing and emitting energy, diverting some of it toward space. However, with no energy input at night, they actively cool the atmosphere.
This is why they are called radiative gases. CO2 has three IR absorption emission bands, at 800, 400, and -80 deg C and during the day all three are working in the 3000 deg C radiation from the sun. But, at night, the atmosphere is always hotter than -80 deg C and the other two bands are unused, being much too high in energy. Thus, CO2 will actively convert atmospheric energy to -80 deg C IR radiation and half will go right out into space. The other downwelling half hits a surface, which is always hotter and thus always reflected back upward and lost to space.
In other words, greenhouse gases do not exist, particularly as the upper tropical troposphere which supposed to be warming Earth’s surface is -17 deg C and the surface at 15 deg C—it simply cannot warm the surface. Indeed, NASA has found a long term cooling trend in that region of the atmosphere for about 30 years.
So Dr. Happer doesn’t understand his physics? Charles, it is a mistake to parade one’s ignorance.
Thank you for this weekly piece of work–next to being right in the first place, it is why we are winning the intellectual debate. 🙂
No one thoroughly understands climate. The CO2 believers stand on a one legged stool – CO2….and there is no lab experimental model of the atmosphere because it is too complex…computer models do not work…I subscribe to cycles which over the last 8000 years are basically warming for a few centuries followed by cooling for a few centuries…it is not precise clockwork but climate history repeats until it doesn’t….and CO2 is not a reason for it to not repeat again because CO2 has been higher in the past without any “runaway” warming. Cooler temps ahead…Grand Solar Minimum…keep cool.
They actually want people to believe that carbon dioxide created by humans acts differently in the atmosphere than ““ natural carbon dioxide .
is this what science has come to?
In Denver this morning and I’m quite certain the thermal death of the universe is well underway and much worse than previously thought.
[[Happer understands the field of physics needed to understand how the greenhouse effect keeps the globe warmer than it would be otherwise and the practical limits of warming from increasing CO2. About 20 minutes into the presentation, Happer discusses radiation transmitted by the atmosphere and the importance of greenhouse gases in keeping the earth from freezing deeply at night. The most important greenhouse gas is water vapor (to include clouds), CO2 is secondary. The Earth’s average surface temperature is about 60 F (16 C), without greenhouse gases it would be about 16 F (minus 9 C).
About 24 minutes into the presentation, Happer presents two graphs. One is based on Max Planck’s curve of frequency of the radiation and thermal power to space. The second is based on Karl Schwarzschild’s calculations of the blocking effect of greenhouse gases. (These calculations have been confirmed by decades of observations and experiments.)]]
This is a pack of falsehoods and half-truths. Happer understands the field of physics? Nobody understands the entire field, sorry. The above shows that he doesn’t understand Planck’s Radiation Law and its deep implications, and has fallen for the crackpot Looney Tunes fake science of the IPCC that literally turns the Earth flat to justify claiming that the Sun can’t keep the Earth from freezing. In reality there are no such things as greenhouse gases, and if Happer really knew physics he’d have been fighting this IPCC Big Lie tooth and nail for decades. Instead, he tries to play footsie with it, playing into their hands by dancing with the Devil in the pale moonlight. What a wasted career.
Too bad, too many academics are educated beyond their intelligence, which comes about from starting out narrow and going deeper but never going broad. Climate science is one so-called field where you must start broad first and go deep second or you’ll be digging yourself into a hole for life.
Will the horse drink? I wonder if Happer is too proud or too old to relearn climate science with solid scientific principles that cross disciplines? Then here’s what he needs,my free online Climate Science 101 course, the result of 50+ years of studying physics while staying outside the academic system and its pressures to stay narrow and never think for oneself.If you persevere and finish the course, you can clearly see how the IPCC has turned climate science upside-down and inside-out for their political goal of foisting global Marxism and refute every one of their lies.
http://historyscoper.com/climatescience101.html
http://historyscoper.com/whatistheuseofglobaltemperature.html
https://www.quora.com/What-does-science-mean-in-the-following-question-Why-do-people-deny-the-science-of-climate-change/answer/TL-Winslow