Guest essay by Eric Worrall
15 years after former Aussie Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery claimed rainfall would not fill our dams, the Guardian asks whether ongoing severe New South Wales flooding is due to climate change.
Is NSW flooding a year after bushfires yet more evidence of climate change?
Experts say it’s unusual to see so many places with such high rainfall across such a wide area. But identifying the cause is complicated
- NSW flooding: disaster zones declared as 18,000 people evacuated
- How three weather systems are crashing together
Life-threatening floods have washed away homes and businesses with a deluge of rain inundating hundreds of kilometres of the New South Walescoast.
Falling on already soaked soils, the rains sparked dozens of flood warnings, with residents in parts of Sydney’s north and west also fearing for their homes and their lives.
…
So what about climate change?
Whenever Australia experiences extreme weather events, the inevitable question arises: was this caused by climate change?
Some climate scientists will argue all weather events are influenced by human activity because we’ve rapidly changed the composition of the atmosphere.
Burning fossil fuels and deforestation has increased the amount of climate-warming CO2 in the atmosphere by about 50% since the start of the industrial revolution.
And while the rainfall totals experienced over recent days are not yet confirmed as record-breaking, this does not mean that climate heating has had no effect at all.
Professor Steve Sherwood, of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, says that basic physics shows a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture – about 7% for each degree of warming.
“So we know that something like 5-10% of the rain we are getting now [in the current downpours] is from global warming and the rest would have happened anyway.
“It’s not a game changer, but it is making things worse and that gets worse still as emissions keep going up.”
…
Strangely the Guardian overlooked explaining the tie in to former climate commissioner Tim Flannery’s climate predictions. Flannery is still a regular in Guardian editorials. From the original ABC Tim Flannery interview transcript;
…
SALLY SARA: What will it mean for Australian farmers if the predictions of climate change are correct and little is done to stop it? What will that mean for a farmer?
PROFESSOR TIM FLANNERY: We’re already seeing the initial impacts and they include a decline in the winter rainfall zone across southern Australia, which is clearly an impact of climate change, but also a decrease in run-off. Although we’re getting say a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas of Australia, that’s translating to a 60 per cent decrease in the run-off into the dams and rivers. That’s because the soil is warmer because of global warming and the plants are under more stress and therefore using more moisture. So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that’s a real worry for the people in the bush. If that trend continues then I think we’re going to have serious problems, particularly for irrigation.
…
Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/local/archives/landline/content/2006/s1844398.htm
I don’t recall many objections from the scientific community when Flannery made his absurd predictions. But despite this embarrassment, Tim Flannery, who now heads the non-governmental Climate Council, can still draw an impressive audience of mostly younger people with his apocalyptic rhetoric.
Below is one of my favourite climate videos – In Search of The Coming Ice Age. I remember watching it as a kid on Australian TV. All the adults were worrying and talking about plunging global temperatures the day after the documentary was aired. Everyone believed the documentary, because the presenter was actor Leonard Nimoy, who played Dr. Spock in the original Star Trek series. The ice age documentary featured an impressive lineup of scientists, including Chester Langway, James Hayes, Gifford Miller (who described how the descent into the next ice age started 3000 years ago), and Stephen Schneider, who speculated about using nuclear energy to melt the ice caps, to halt the big freeze.
Climate scientist Stephen Schneider later backflipped and started promoting global warming alarmism.
Settled science anyone? JoNova points out similar severe flooding occurred in New South Wales in 1857. Clearly the 1857 floods were natural, while the current floods are due to our sinful carbon emissions.
h/t William – as if the flooding wasn’t enough, NSW farmers report a plague of mice (link to a spectacular video) is affecting large areas of NSW. Perhaps they shouldn’t have made such an effort to eradicate feral cats.
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A year and a half ago, Andy Pitman accidentally admitted that there is no link between drought and climate change. Is there a link between the dam and river system filling rains we have experienced and “climate change”-I suspect not. Andy Pitman admitted that they don’t understand what causes drought and drought breaking rains. They do not even know what lines up to bring drought breaking rains.
One thing we do know is that in Australia, we have experienced droughts and floods from before widespread use of fossil fuels.
I wonder what Professor Pitman has to say about our drought breaking rains?
Personally, I just love it when our dams overflow-makes Tim Flannery look like an idiot. The current massive overflows might flood out his (former from what I gather) property on the tip of Coba Point on the Hawkesbury. Google earth it-then have a laugh.
As for Steve Sherwood, he gave a presentation at a local group a number of years ago. We 3 amateurs demolished him-left him wanting on his knowledge. A lead author of a chapter in an IPCC climate report-the Bible of Climate-whipped by a small bunch of skeptics. He started the presentation of with the 97%…(red rag to a bull.) In the end, he actually turned his back on me, like a dog that has been thoroughly beaten.
Call me mean, but what fun to demolish a lead author of an IPCC report.
On a lighter note, today marks the tenth anniversary of the first carbon tax rally in Canberra. The good old days.
.
Flim-flam doesn’t need anything to make him look like an idiot
Its his natural state of being….
He’s Australia’s mickey mann..
BLUE SKIES in southern Sydney ! 🙂
Let’s not have a repeat of the last few day , please !!
Cool fronts from the south will now generate thunderstorms in Australia.
https://www.blitzortung.org/en/live_lightning_maps.php
so theyve said for the last 3 days for us
and?
ZIP
Dorothy McKellar – ‘ I love a sunburnt country’ 1908
Joe O’Brien – ‘Said Harahan’ 1919
Both these poets knew more about Australia’s climate than either Tim Flannery or The Guardian…
I think all climate change funding in Australia needs to redirected to pay for all the desal plants that have not been needed, and I think all the greenies should have to pay also.
Just as in California, the Australian climate pattern is now severe drought and fire alternating with very extreme rain events.
And your evidence for this being new is:
________________________.
So you are saying that THERE HAS BEEN NO CLIMATE CHANGE
Yes, we knew that, idiot !
I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror –
The wide brown land for me!
An excerpt from ”My Country” by Dorothea Mackellar, 1908
Severe drought and fire alternating with extreme rain events actually describes Australia’s usual climate perfectly. Thanks, Griff!
‘Experts say’ = ‘Someone once blabbered’.
The absorption bands of CO2 and water are almost completely saturated at present. If CO2 increases, there will be almost no additional warming effect (e.g. Happer and Wijngaarden). Maybe one should show these people that we’re in the top (almost horizontal) part of the sigmoid absorption curve and not in the “linear” domain. This is plain physics, not religion. This is plain weather, not climate change.
feral or otherwise the cats cant begin to touch the bloody mice numbers!
I lived through near 12mths of mouseplague and its NOT the tiniest bit funny. hoping the majority of the sods drown, all the thousands of $ of laid baits are now ruined too;-(
for many what the mice didnt ruin the water will, silos with stored grains etc cop it both ways. and with global shortfalls in grains etc usa might be feeling the pinch with high prices for bread etc very soon too.
chinas brought huge amts of soy n corn from you and grains all over the globe, due to their drought then flooding a while back.
Africas has floods ongoing as well as repeat locust plagues.
Russias controlling grain sales to ensure they can feed their own(wisely)
Aussie drought meant last yrs rice was small harvests and this yr might now improve at least. Vietnam was running low last I heard and they supply a lot of places
NK is in deep doodoo as always drought etc
I sincerely hope flimflams riverfrontage is flooding to give him a dose of reality!
Don’t forget that in the Tim Tim universe the entire city of Perth has already been abandoned.
You mean Tim, nice but dim?
“…was this caused by climate change?” No, it is seasonal rainfall. You’d think that in an area where rainfall can be scarce, they’d be grateful for a little extra and divert it to ponds and lakes, but NOOOOOOOOO!!!! Failing to understand that it takes time for heavy rain to soak into hard ground doesn’t help. They should learn to create places (called flood basins) to relieve the problem.
And flooding? We didn’t have it this year in the midwestern USA, but there have been a few years where heavy spring rains caused major flooding because the soil was already soaked thoroughly from snow melting and the melt water hadn’t had time to percolate down into the water table.
Oh, yeah: morning paper last week had a panic-attack article about Lake Michigan (Michi Gamu) warming at the lower levels, a newly-minted discovery because no one had thought to do that earlier. Now “the They” (whoever They are) are worried sick that it will have some effect on fish and bring in more of those foreign critters that latch onto container ships and come to the Great Lakes and it will kill off all the fish. Haven’t heard that from any people who actually to go fishing so far, but the “experts” are all wonky about it.
A reading of Dorothea Mackellar is in order.
The sheep are assumed to have no memories of what was said the day before. Baa Baa
What I don’t understand is why anybody cares what Tim Flannery thinks about “Climate Change”. The guy was a utility infielder for the San Diego Padres baseball team from 1979 to 1989. He was a slap hitter who hit a grand total of 9 home runs in 11 seasons.
Is that you, Emily Litella? We’re talking about Tim Flannery here, not Tim Flannery.
“Never mind.”
“Experts say it’s unusual to see so many places with such high rainfall across such a wide area. But identifying the cause is complicated”
Oh those EXPERTS again using blurred language to obfuscate.
They want you to equate unusual with unnatural, but why oh why would they want to do that?
So is this unusual? I’m not an Expert.
Some BOM weekly rainfall charts:
2021
2020
2017
2013
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=week®ion=nat&year=2021&month=03&day=23
Leonard Nimoy, good job of narrating the ice age. Note the change in Earth’s orbit was mentioned.
Due to the history of ice ages perhaps man’s contribution in the modern world will help stave off the next ice age. Or not. The point is the earth is now in a period of good weather favorable to humans and we should enjoy that it is is in our life time and not tax it.
In winter always make sure your anti freeze is OK, a candle, matches and shovel in the car, arctic clothes in case you have to walk. Also snow boots for the tires for a better grip.
Blame La Nina.
If the Gummint gave me a Tesla this wouldn’t happen.
A warmer parcel of air can hold more moisture. Doesn’t mean its going to rain more.
“Professor Steve Sherwood, of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, says that basic physics shows a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture – about 7% for each degree of warming.”
Did these clowns ever take a logic class or only their environmental studies classes? If the atmosphere can hold more water when it is hotter and they claim it is hotter, then the water would be in the atmosphere and the ground would be drier. Rain is caused by cooling the air.
“basic physics shows a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture “
Yeah, the atmosphere is like a giant sponge. Give it a good squeeze and it will rain. FFS, where did Sherwood learn his physics? The processes of evaporation and condensation don’t need an atmosphere to occur, they will happen even in a vacuum.
Well, they’ll sure be grateful for that 5-10% during the next drought.
Here is the official record of NSW rainfall for the past 120 years.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Drain%26area%3Dnsw%26season%3D0112%26ave_yr%3D13
From regular droughts to flooding rains.
From the BoM too, how inconvenient!
I have read Watts Up With That since day one, now I am done. The emails and webpages a scrambled mess no matter what browser I use. I cant be bothered any more. goodbye Anthony.
watch out for the door T.
I too, have been a follower of the page for many years. I don’t ever recall seeing a comment from you.
That said, I use Fair AdBlocker by STANDS and I’ve never, ever had an issue with popups or anything else annoying on this page. I still see all the clickbait stuff but it’s relegated to the right of the main window and presents no challenges. This is using Chrome on Win10.
I just don’t get why so many complain about this stuff, when it is easily solved.
Quick, throw another virgin into the volcano!