CLAIM: Global Warming is Causing More Severe Winters

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

They predicted colder winters, right? And warmer winters. Climate scientists are dashing for “The Day after Tomorrow” insurance policy, after a “cold blob” broke off the Arctic.

How the ‘cold blob’ is slowing down our oceans – and what it means

By 9News StaffCNN
5:12pm Mar 4, 2021

The “cold blob” sounds like a rejected monster from a 1950s horror show – but new research shows it could be bringing some very scary climate changes indeed.The world’s major ocean currents are slowing down, and though the consequences will not be as immediate or dramatic as in Hollywood fiction, there are real-world impacts for global weather patterns and sea levels.The slowdown of ocean circulation is directly caused by warming global temperatures and has been predicted by climate scientists.

“This has been predicted, basically, for decades that this circulation would weaken in response to global warming. And now we have the strongest evidence that this is already happening,” said Stefan Rahmstorf  of Potsdam University, who contributed to this research.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports water across the planet’s oceans, including the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian. The region contributing to the slowdown is the North Atlantic, according to the research.

“If this Atlantic overturning circulation breaks down all together, this will lead to a strong cooling around the northern Atlantic, especially into Europe, into the kind of coastal areas (of) Britain and Scandinavia. But that’s only true if the overturning breaks down all together,” Rahmstorf  said.

Read more:

No possible temperature change will ever falsify alarmist climate theories. Even a full blown descent into a new ice age, if it happens in the near future, would be blamed on anthropogenic Global Warming.

No matter what happens to global weather, climate scientists have a pack of excuses ready to roll, so they can “explain” how they knew this was going to happen all along.

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March 4, 2021 6:09 pm

Then why do they blame ocean currents on “warming” at the poles? Can’t have it both ways.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  UV Meter
March 4, 2021 6:26 pm

Of course they can have it both ways, if the media say so and the ‘Potsdam’ clown show say so..

Reply to  Rory Forbes
March 4, 2021 6:45 pm

Their other theory is that warming at north pole allows cool ice-melted air to disrupt the jet stream making it become “wavy” and drift south – bringing freeze to the likes of Texas. Haven’t seen any proof of that.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  UV Meter
March 4, 2021 8:46 pm

Frankly, there is no part of climate speculation with any credence. Everything they have come up with over the past 100 years or more has been wrong. This planet’s climate is really remarkably stable for long periods and we are only able to guess an infinitesimally small part of the causes.

Reply to  Rory Forbes
March 4, 2021 7:20 pm

Does the idiot Stefan Rahmstorf have any friends to tap him on the shoulder? When the unmarked van shows up and the people in the white coats take him in, I guess he’ll never know why. Hey, I don’t care if the crackpot wastes his life. It won’t be the first time.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  philincalifornia
March 4, 2021 8:48 pm

I doubt there will be any more loyalty to their compatriots in fraud than they have for the scientific method. It’ll be every liar to him/herself when the fraud finally gains full visibility.

Reply to  philincalifornia
March 5, 2021 5:23 am

The deplorable from Potsdam never ever reads contradicting papers, as Lockwood, or Haigh, or, concerning AMOC the RAPID paper or others telling AMOC doesn’t slow down.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 5, 2021 7:44 am

Rossby , actual oceanographer recording empirical GS velocities from measurements made weekly from ship for more than 20 years says this is total rubbish . but then if Rahmstorf’s model says its happening you can’t argue with that .

Reply to  garboard
March 5, 2021 7:47 am

Rahmstorf ignores ( hates?) Rossby . I don’t think they go for coffee together

Reply to  garboard
March 5, 2021 11:20 am

Just follow the money trail. That’s what it’s all about, lying for profit, prostitution, not science at all. As a creationist I’ve been dealing with this garbage for decades. They denied MRI inventor Damadian his Nobel prize because he was a creationist, so it’s no surprise to see following the data whichever way it leads has long been a lost cause, but the few left who have consciences and minds know true science is in dire straits because it’s come to the point where some fundamental scientific bases can not be replicated, calling into question some of the basics of science itself, God himself exposing the perfidy.

Reply to  philincalifornia
March 5, 2021 6:09 am

Yes, there are:

The global network comprises 517 weather stations. But each measurement is just a small dot on the big world map and has to be extrapolated for an entire region using supercomputers. Moreover, there are still many blind spots. The largest of these is the Arctic, where there are only about 20 measuring stations over a huge area; climatologists refer to this as the “Arctic hole.”

The Hadley Center researchers simply used the global average for the hole, ignoring the fact that it has become significantly warmer in the Arctic, Rahmstorf criticizes. But a Nasa working group from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, which takes into account the special case of the Arctic in the sense of Rahmstorf, arrives at a similarly flat temperature curve for the past five years as the British colleagues. Marotzke therefore judges that Rahmstorf has “argumentatively carried it off the curve.”

Marotzke and also Latif even consider the black accounting practiced by researchers like Rahmstorf to be counterproductive. “We need to explain to the public that temperatures are not rushing from one record to another due to greenhouse gases, but are subject to natural fluctuations,” says Latif. It is also dangerous, he says, to see individual weather events such as a drought in Mali or a hurricane as examples of climate change that is already in full swing.

German Source

Worth a translation

Is 2 years old. Marotzke admits, the CO2 problem isn’t as strong as thought.

John in Oz
Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 5, 2021 2:46 pm

NASA, not Nasa.

This mis-spelling is creeping into many articles and should be corrected to please us pedants

Reply to  John in Oz
March 5, 2021 3:50 pm

As I don’t write the articles, I don’t correct them….
As a pedant I’ll say, question of © 😀

Reply to  UV Meter
March 4, 2021 8:13 pm

“To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again: and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself — that was the ultimate subtlety: consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word ‘doublethink’ involved the use of doublethink”
– George Orwell, Nineteen eighty four.

Reply to  MarkH
March 4, 2021 11:02 pm

So prescient, he understood the teachings of the Darkside, and what the UN really signified.

Reply to  MarkH
March 5, 2021 3:38 am

I nailed the current global cold Winter forecast in August 2020 below. The hard part is forecasting where the polar vortex is going next – but those who forecast a warm winter were delusional.

Regarding the warmist loons who claimed “Global Warming caused this extreme cold” – their lies are not even credible enough to be specious.

From previous posts on wattsup:
by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., June 15, 2019
This formula works reasonably well back to 1982, which is the limit of my data availability.
5. UAH LT Global Temperatures can be predicted ~4 months in the future with just two parameters:
UAHLT (+4 months) = 0.2*Nino34Anomaly + 0.15 – 5*SatoGlobalAerosolOpticalDepth (Figs. 5a and 5b)
6. The sequence is Nino34 Area SST warms, seawater evaporates, Tropical atmospheric humidity increases, Tropical atmospheric temperature warms, Global atmospheric temperature warms, atmospheric CO2 increases (Figs.6a and 6b).
I wrote in August 2020:

Check out NIno34 temperatures, again down to Minus 0.6C – winter will be cold.
comment image

Nino34 SST anom’s hit minimums of minus1.4C-1.3C in Oct2020 and Nov2020 – so global coldest temperatures (+4 months) should be Feb2021 and Mar2021.* Spring could also be late in many parts of the world.

[* Looking at the data – I’d have to go with Yankee Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil (predicts six more weeks of winter), not Canuck’s Wiarton Willie, Shubenacadie Sam and Fred La Marmotte (called early spring). The Rite of Spring, like science, is not a democracy – it’s not about consensus – it is what it is! Attaboy Phil! Hi Four!]
Check the beautiful La Nina in the equatorial Pacific Ocean – the blue stuff.
comment image

Steve Z
March 5, 2021 4:40 pm

The La Nina pattern (cold water in the east Pacific, warm in the west) usually leads to drier weather in the western USA, but more turbulent weather in the central and eastern USA.

Interestingly enough, during the worst of the polar vortex in the central USA (Great Plains), there was a sharp boundary line along the Rockies (from western Montana through eastern Idaho, western Wyoming, western Colorado, into western New Mexico) between milder weather to the west and much colder weather to the east. For a few days, it was much warmer in Boise, ID and Salt Lake City, UT than in Denver CO or San Antonio, TX, even though the latter cities are farther south.

According to the ENSO Meter on this website, we’ve had a La Nina below -0.5 for just about a year now. Summer of 2020 had a very active Atlantic hurricane season, but the weather was hot and dry west of the Rockies.

Food for thought: How much CO2 needs to be emitted to break a La Nina? Or are El Nino and La Nina really affected by CO2?

Reply to  Steve Z
March 5, 2021 10:49 pm

Question: “How much CO2 needs to be emitted to break a La Nina? Or are El Nino and La Nina really affected by CO2?”

Answer: There is no evidence that any rational amount of increased atmospheric CO2 will have enough warming effect sufficient to break a La Nina.

Richard (the cynical one)
Reply to  UV Meter
March 4, 2021 8:14 pm

Yes they can have it both ways. Green truths are malleable, massageable, one-size-fits-all, available in any shade, shape, texture, form you might want. Free up your creative thinking. Imagine. Feel. There are no restrictions of logic or fact.

John Tillman
March 4, 2021 6:11 pm

An hypothesis which explains everything, explains nothing.

As per the scientific method. But that has been cancelled.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  John Tillman
March 4, 2021 6:30 pm

They abandoned the scientific method for climate science, so long ago, they’re not even teaching it as ancient history any more. The moment they included “settled science” and “consensus” in the method, not to mention “peer review” qualifying as the gold standard for validation of a theory, they changed science into hyperbole.

Reply to  Rory Forbes
March 5, 2021 11:45 am

The whole “peer review” thing is disgusting. They have the masses convinced that peer-reviewed means it’s RIGHT, which (unless I vastly misunderstand) is something peer-review was never intended to do.

Reply to  John Tillman
March 4, 2021 7:23 pm

It hasn’t been cancelled out in the real world. Let these juveniles continue to play in the sandbox, but daddy’s coming home soon.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  philincalifornia
March 4, 2021 9:00 pm

Daddy was home and occupying the White House … keeping promises, establishing a brilliant foreign policy, creating jobs for minorities, repairing a neglected judiciary, reawakening a suppressed middle class, giving hope to the “deplorables” and draining the swamp (among dozens of other successes). Tech giant’s, the media, the new Left, Globalism and swamp denizens from both parties conspired to dispose of him by any means. It will be a tough, up hill battle to challenge that sort of raw power and financial resources.

Reply to  Rory Forbes
March 5, 2021 11:37 am

True, but truth remains truth (unlike the countless lies we don’t have to remember it to keep from getting caught in a web of “practice to deceive” that liars do, even liars for profit*) and eventually outs no matter how hard they try to prevent it. God’s justice grinds exceeding slow but exceeding fine. Lenin/Stalin & Hitler tried to avoid this in vain, the former not even lasting a century (1917-1990) versus Czar’s nearly 400 years (1547-1917), the latter’s “thousand year reich” less than 6 years (9/1939-5/1945) until they were swept into history’s dustbin as evil Slo Joe Biden & co. will be.
*=“Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!” Sir Walter Scott, 1808, Marmion: A Tale of Flodden Field.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  RussD
March 5, 2021 1:54 pm

Ah yes, history, that embarrassing subject that cancel culture hates. They had the best they’re ever likely to get and wanted a change. So their overlords gave them O’Biden and were told to shut up and accept what they’ve been given.

Reply to  John Tillman
March 4, 2021 8:00 pm

Scientific method is a suggestion, not a requirement.

Reply to  Pauleta
March 5, 2021 2:56 am

And so they are not doing science. Under the scientific method a hypothesis must be able to be falsified. There is no weather or change in climate that can falsify the hypothesis of human caused catastrophic climate change, and thus it is not science. It is something else. It is politics.

Politics is a realm where facts and truth are as often as not, elements that must be obscured, distorted, or ignored, because politics is not based on using a logical procedure to reach valid conclusions. It is based on using any means available to garner power and revenue.

Reply to  Pauleta
March 5, 2021 11:37 am

I wonder if even suggested anymore, more likely forbidden.

Al Miller
March 4, 2021 6:12 pm

it’s easy when you know that it never was about climate…

Reply to  Al Miller
March 4, 2021 6:39 pm

Yes, as Christiana Figureres (UN Official) admitted in October 2015, the real agenda has always been to defeat the free market capitalist system that delivered the prosperity people in developed nations take for granted.

So bad that China and Russia decided to compete with the USA and other capitalist nations to create wealth.

Reply to  Dennis
March 5, 2021 11:38 am

Socialism is fine until it runs out of other people’s money.

March 4, 2021 6:23 pm

Any storyline will work with CNN consumers.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  ResourceGuy
March 4, 2021 9:06 pm

I have a friend who works at home. He has CNN on the TV, as a background, all day long. He doesn’t understand my frustration when I try explaining to him that what he’s hearing and seeing is not news. It’s carefully managed propaganda. He says, “well, I saw it”. They really do believe they’re getting actual events.

“It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”

~Mark Twain~

Climate believer
Reply to  Rory Forbes
March 5, 2021 1:22 am

“well, I saw it”.

He may want to get his eyesight checked.

cnn kenosha.png
Reply to  Climate believer
March 5, 2021 11:42 am

It would do no good. They can look right at it and not see it for their brainwashing. For a frightening example remember the 1962 The Manchurian Candidate (the classic original vs the horrible 2004 remake that destroyed even the basics of the original) and the delusional old women’s club. God save us.

Reply to  Climate believer
March 6, 2021 2:26 am

The blindness is not in the eyes but in the brain.

March 4, 2021 6:25 pm

To be proper and British you must call it a ‘warming hole’ in order to stand clear of the words that must not be named.

March 4, 2021 6:29 pm

Climate genius John Holdren (Obama’s science advisor) already tried that excuse …

Robert of Texas
March 4, 2021 6:29 pm

It has to be an Arctic cold blast with no snow in it…remember they said children would never know what snow is.

Rory Forbes
March 4, 2021 6:32 pm

Stefan Rahmstorf … oh him! What a buffoon. History will not be kind to that idiot. Talk about a political apparatchik.

Reply to  Rory Forbes
March 4, 2021 10:07 pm

Rubber room material!

March 4, 2021 6:34 pm

I seem to recall that during the last big cold trend (late ’70s), they were predicting the next big ice age. Funny how the narrative keeps changing: one time, cold is a sign of cooling; but the next time, cold is a sign of warming. But the bottom line is always the same: we’re DOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!

Reply to  Phantor48
March 4, 2021 6:40 pm

Where did the hole in the ozone layer go?


Mumbles McGuirck
Reply to  Dennis
March 4, 2021 7:27 pm

Down the Memory Hole. Winston Smith now works at CNN.

March 4, 2021 6:36 pm

Farm records spanning a couple of centuries reveal that every cold weather period is followed by a warming, naturally.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Dennis
March 4, 2021 9:10 pm

That is almost tautological, or warm and cold would have no meaning at all. It matters not which of these two polarities is current, the government merely has to convince the electorate that we’re to blame and only THEY have the solution. Even primitive witch doctors knew this.

March 4, 2021 6:39 pm

The slowdown of ocean circulation is directly caused by warming global temperatures and has been predicted by climate scientists.”

So I presume this is caused by warmer polar water drawing in less (or more slowly) tropical water?
If so, did we get extreme HN cold during the late 30’s early 40s?
Does it mean that if global temps fall, in say the next few decades, that ocean circulation will speed up?
If so, does it mean that the NH will not experience as many extreme cold events then?
Given that they have such a deep understanding of the processes and their predictions are spot on, they should be easily able to accurately answer these simple questions right?
And of course they should be able to get around the graph below too right?

Julian Flood
March 4, 2021 6:44 pm

An oil or surfactant polluted ocean surface will be smoothed. Wind will raise fewer ripples, wavelets and waves. This will reduce wind driven currents.

Search for the SeaWifs site which details oil pollution – the oceans annually receive enough light oil to smooth the entire surface.

The lipids released by phytoplankton can have the same effect.

Fewer r breaking waves, fewer salt aerosols, less stratocumulus cloud, more insolation, warming..

March 4, 2021 7:23 pm

It is actually quite logical:

Once you ascribe everything to the will of God the only thing that remains to be done is to deduce God’s thinking in every event. So, if a village is destroyed by a natural disaster, you must infer why God wanted it destroyed, no matter how convoluted and illogical the explanation may be.

Furthermore, if you built a $100 million dollar research center to investigate Global Warming, how is it ever possible to go back? And as the Earth’s climate interacts with everything, everything that occurs (even cooling) is affected by Climate Change, thus everything is open to your investigations and interpretations.

Climate Change researchers are essentially modern-day priests, and their role is to literally explain why global warming causes this or that phenomenon. So, as a result, CAGW adherents must live with implausible, speculative and highly improbable explanations; as they dare not examine the foundations of their belief system.

To us on the outside, looking in as observers, it would be all quite comical (why are those villagers sacrificing virgins to the volcano?) if these people were not actually putting themselves in charge of the world’s energy distribution system. (sigh)

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Anon
March 4, 2021 9:11 pm

A dozen years ago Richard Lindzen called for shutting down the grants, by a 90% reduction, that fuel this nonsense. Dr Lindzen recently provided a statement to James Taylor that was read at last weekend’s CPAC:

“One problem with conveying our message is the difficulty people have in recognizing the absurdity of the alarmist climate message. They can’t believe that something so absurd could gain such universal acceptance. Consider the following situation. Your physician declares that your complete physical will consist in simply taking your temperature. This would immediately suggest something wrong with your physician. He further claims that if your temperature is 98.7 degrees Fahrenheit, rather than 98.6, you must be put on life support. Now you know he is certifiably insane. The same situation for climate (a comparably complex system with a much more poorly defined index – globally averaged temperature anomaly) is considered ‘settled science.’”
“If this weren’t silly enough, we are bombarded with claims that the impacts of this climate change include such things as obesity and the Syrian civil war. The claims of impacts are then circularly claimed to be overwhelming evidence of dangerous climate change. It doesn’t matter that most of these claims are wrong and/or irrelevant. It doesn’t matter that none of these claims can be related to CO2 except via model projections. In almost all cases, even the model projections are non-existent.
“Somehow, the sheer volume of misinformation seems to overwhelm us. In case, you retain any skepticism, there is John Kerry’s claim that climate (unlike physics and chemistry) is simple enough for any child to understand. Presumably, if you can’t see the existential danger of CO2, you’re a stupid denier.
“Our task is to show people the overall stupidity of this issue rather than punching away at details. If public relations advisors can solve this problem, they would be well worth hiring, but I have my doubts.”

I second Dr Lindzen’s observation: John Kerry, the Biden White House Climate Czar, is certifiably insane.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
March 4, 2021 10:10 pm

Lurch – rubber room material with extra padding!

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Anon
March 5, 2021 4:18 am

“Climate Change researchers are essentially modern-day priests..”

I have several excellent books on climate change skepticism but none drew the connection with religion. I should think an entire book could be written on that theme. Or maybe somebody has already done it?

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
March 5, 2021 5:28 am

It would be interesting. Maybe there is some kind of primitive psychological circuit CAGW is triggering? Almost every primitive religion involved Gods that control the climate / weather and harvest, etc. We obviously live in a random and uncertain universe, so by anthropomorphizing the problem as climate Gods, that we can communicate with (anger or appease), that might bring down the human anxiety level? (by asserting control) And CO2 fills in that slot, as man’s “control knob” for the climate.

Furthermore, the fact that CO2 is “invisible” has elements of unseen things like the the Hindu God Kali, the mother and destroyer of all things (or the more modern Devil and Holy Ghost). CO2 oddly enough has that same characteristic: it supports life and according to alarmists can also take life. And as they all are impalpable (CO2 included), how does a common person even evaluate how the battle for the Heavens is going, except through the words of priests, oracles and astrologers? (NASA and NOAA here)

It is all very strange. We live in probably the most comfortable era human beings have ever known, and can’t enjoy it because our Universities teach that we are on the edge of catastrophe.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Anon
March 5, 2021 8:22 am

The prophet Mann read the entrails of tree rings to determine our fate.

Joel O'Bryan
March 4, 2021 7:35 pm

This is what makes Climate Change a religion and not science. Science can be falsified, but environmental religions like climate change can always find attribution in the climate dogma and scriptures as long as one is “faithful.”

The late Dr. Michael Crichton understood this. His stardom, charisma, and education pedigree made him a real threat to the climate scammers.

March 4, 2021 7:45 pm

When you control the media you control the narrative.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  markl
March 4, 2021 8:59 pm

That used to be true, pre-Internet.
The WWW has been the great equalizer the Totalitarians never saw coming 40 years ago until it washed over humanity starting around late 1990’s.
Much to the Socialist-Fascist’s lament they can’t control all mass communications right now. To wit: WUWT and other websites even as they shutdown Twitter accounts and Facebook stuff. Tony Heller still blogs. As do many others still having reach.
Tho’ they are working overtime on the internet controls to correct that… as we’ve seen of late with the Cancel culture going to overdrive.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
March 4, 2021 10:00 pm

And TWITter has permanently banned Trump, even though the Jan 6 rioters planned it all well before his speech, on Narcissist Book and TWITter, not Parler.

Gary Pearse
March 4, 2021 7:51 pm

So, what should we prepare for, Catastrophic Anthropo Global Warming’s severe colding or severe warming. Are malaria, killer bees, ticks, Joshua Trees and the Edith Spot butterfly moving poleward or equatorward? Will they make a fatal mistake and choose unwisely. Will enhancement of warming stop the greening of the Arctic or the whitening of the Arctic?

Lets see if we have a sixth year added on to the cooling trend that has caused all the angst and silly rearguard defense by the clime syndicate in the face of double digit cooling records, frozen solid sharks washing up on Massachusetts beaches …

John Culhane
Reply to  Gary Pearse
March 4, 2021 11:29 pm

How about it being so cold that animals flash freeze as happened this year in January.

Reply to  John Culhane
March 5, 2021 5:14 am

That’s what happend to some mammouths they found in permafrost, they told us.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 5, 2021 7:30 am

Who are “they?”

Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 5, 2021 8:48 am


Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Krishna Gans
March 5, 2021 12:03 pm

I have yet to read any such speculation by a paleontologist. Inasmuch as the preserved bodies that have been recovered from permafrost have been entombed in sediment, the speculation that I have seen most often is that a mammoth was walking along the base of a cliff, which collapsed on the unfortunate animal, or that it was on the top of a cliff when it collapsed, carrying it down and being covered by the landslide.

While it might get cold enough to “flash freeze” a fox, the mass of a mammoth is so much greater that I find it to be unlikely.

Reply to  John Culhane
March 5, 2021 9:01 am

It has happened to humans also.comment image

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  rah
March 5, 2021 12:07 pm

I have heard of soldiers freezing to death while in foxholes or trenches. However, it seems more likely to me that they simply got so cold over a period of hours that they died from hypothermia, and then their bodies froze after heat was no longer produced internally. I have never heard of a sentry being ‘flash frozen’ upright while walking his rounds.

Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 6, 2021 2:28 am

So you believe that it has happened to other mammals but the human mammal is some how immune?

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  rah
March 6, 2021 11:12 am

I think that it is possible. However, I think that the probability is very low because humans are smarter than animals, and have mastered fire. AFAIK, no Arctic or Antarctic explorers have suffered such a fate. However, if you can demonstrate anyone frozen upright, like the pictures of the animals, then I will re-assess my probability estimate.

Reply to  Clyde Spencer
March 7, 2021 1:04 am

Lighting a fire in war time can be a death sentence. Even getting out of ones whole to get fuel to light one can be impossible to survive in some circumstances. My point being that in some circumstances it does not matter how smart one is.

March 4, 2021 8:25 pm

Fairy tales.

Mike Lyons
March 4, 2021 8:36 pm

Heads I win, tails you lose. Fork it over wage slaves.

Peta of Newark
March 4, 2021 9:06 pm

Am presently listening to a DJ streaming live from somewhere abouts ‘Miami’ and he is complaining about it being colder than a really cold place right now.
A little wunderground station near Palm Beach tells us that things ## are about 10 Celsius down on the same place/day last year

## The daily high, low and average temperatures. All 3 down.

Shows up that Cold Atlantic Blob in the picture really nicely doncha think

(yeah I know, does nobody have a Photoshop, good grief even Paint could have produced something)

Same pic shows the UK being red hot (maybe not red red-hot, but fairly orange)
My little old wunderground in Cumbria tells me/us that the average for ‘4321’ (yesterday) was 2.2 Celsius
On 4320 (yesterday last year)it was a toasty 3.6 Celsius

Somebody’s got a sense of humour :-/
Warped, but funny

btw, Hows Cali doing, was supposed to be a ‘Beast From The East’ ** coming at ya this wknd

** UK folks know what a BFTE is.
i.e. childishness, but sounds good in print and on TV

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Peta of Newark
March 4, 2021 9:25 pm

Miami is nothing like cold at all, and California storms never come from the east.

March 4, 2021 9:23 pm

“It is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes over most land areas on daily and seasonal timescales as global mean temperatures increase. It is very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher frequency and duration. Occasional cold winter extremes will continue to occur (see Table SPM.1). {12.4}” – 5th IPCC Report Summary for Policymakers

Table SPM.1 says, for the 1. Early and 2. Late 21st century:
Warmer and/or fewer cold days and nights over most land areas – 1. Likely 2. Virtually certain

In the summary, there is no other indication of any prediction of cold, and there is no indication anywhere of any increasing cold anywhere or any increased incidence of cold anywhere. Their claim to have predicted increased cold events in any shape size or form is surely pure balderdash.

Tom in Toronto
March 4, 2021 9:54 pm

We know anthropogenic climate change causes everything. We only pay the researchers to tell us how a particular phenomenon is all our fault.
Just like priests who told us which of our sins caused God’s judgment through earthquakes, storms, plagues, etc.

donald penman
March 4, 2021 10:52 pm

I do not believe that the Jetstream is made more wavy by climate change instead we see that it winds it way around blocking high pressure areas that set up on occasion. When the globe further away from the cold winter poles are cooling down faster then the air masses are likely at their most stable but when the globe further from the poles are heating up faster then the air masses are at their most unstable and are more mobile. We should not rely on climate models to try to explain the climate but rather observations that is my opinion.

Reply to  donald penman
March 5, 2021 5:27 am

No, that’s not CC, but solar minimum, lack of heating UV radiaton cooling the thermosphere.

March 4, 2021 10:53 pm

” … Look, let’s just keep it simple. CO2 is a catastrophe gas, you don’t need a thermometer to know when CO2 was involved. If there’s extreme weather then CO2 did this. No, I’m not making it up! … No! …I am not making it up! … sit down! … NO! … That’s just how it is now. … what? … Well, you should have paid more when it cost was far lower! … Pay the protection quota and we will make sure the CO2 monster returns to Venus again. … ”

– His Excellency, António Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, Feb 26th, 2021, General Assembly.

March 5, 2021 12:07 am

Ha! The weather models, and the so called meteorologists which are not competent enough to do their own analysis, didn’t even see this last arctic blast coming less than two weeks out despite the massive stratospheric warming that had been evident which is key indicator that Arctic air is going to push into the temperate zone somewhere !

And yet we’re told that “climate scientists” using their models predicted that human activity would cause such things to happen?

And then Joe Bastardi who was telling everyone that Arctic Blast was coming and warned the governor of Texas that the effect on the state would be the equivalent of a “CAT V” hurricane, and turns out to be correct, gets labeled as a “Fringe meteorologist” by the same crowd.

And still true believers, believe in the competence of these charlatans. And they call us “deniers”?

Eric Vieira
March 5, 2021 1:38 am

When one sees where this claim comes from (PIK = Potsdam Institute for Climate research), it just adds another element to a never ending story of failed predictions they’ve made.

Reply to  Eric Vieira
March 5, 2021 5:32 am

PIK told us a year ago from an El Niño coming. we see, how wrong there were 😀

Ed Zuiderwijk
March 5, 2021 2:30 am

Somehow I suspect that the authors have missed the lectures on thermodynamics.

Bent Kim Jepsen
March 5, 2021 4:38 am

The slowdown of ocean circulation is not real. It is a result of models. More cold water from Greenland do not slowdown the Golf stream. No measurements show this model-effect.

donald penman
Reply to  Bent Kim Jepsen
March 5, 2021 11:58 am

Why is it always the gulf stream that has to slow down for the north Atlantic to cool. Could we not have more cold water currents coming out of the Arctic? The gulf stream while the most important current in the North Atlantic is not the only current.

Bruce Cobb
March 5, 2021 4:45 am

Centuries ago, it was “witches”. Today, it’s “climate change”.

Rod Evans
March 5, 2021 6:39 am

As we all know, after years of detailed study, the answer to everything in the universe is 42. Sadly, that “consensus” truth has been superseded by the more modern answer to everything in the Universe and beyond (according to some puppets), the new universal truth is Mann Made Global Warming leading to, Climate Change/Weather Weirding/Climate Crisis, and most interestingly Global Cooling via cooler winters.
Just ask The Guardian, they have all the answers.
I have to admit to being confused….

March 5, 2021 7:28 am

only if it breaks down all together . well if the trades winds stop blowing and the Gulf Stream stops flowing then I guess maybe that would be time to worry . real oceanographers like rossby laugh at this . and the best Rahmstorf can pull out of his hat are proxy studies that Suggest Maybe something is happening over the span of 1000 years .?I think he pumps it up to a maybe a 15% change over 1000 years . how about mentioning that studies show temps were a full degree higher in the North Atlantic basin 1000 years ago ? Rahmstorf is my favorite junk scientist

March 5, 2021 7:37 am

North Atlantic Ocean temps were a full 1C higher 1000 years ago .during the MWP. inconvenient truth for Rahmstorf , my favorite junk scientist .

James F. Evans
March 5, 2021 8:03 am

The key:

Can not be falsified.

March 5, 2021 8:19 am

I’m sorry but this latest report cannot be correct. The data are clear. The UK Met Office has told us so.

The science
The data are clear:  the global climate is changing at an unprecedented rate.
In 2018 the Met Office published new climate projection data (UKCP18), with the following headline data for Scotland assuming current rates of global emissions reduction:
Changes in our climate will accelerate, with winters becoming warmer and wetter; and hotter summers …..”
(Climate Action Plan, Historic Environment Scotland, page 15)

Andy Pattullo
March 5, 2021 8:21 am

Stefan Rahmstorf makes Hans Christian Andersen seem like a nonfiction author by comparison. Rahmsorf feels about truth how vampires feel about garlic, but vampires have more respect for human wellfare.

March 5, 2021 9:26 am

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Rahmstorf’s Blog

Steve Z
March 5, 2021 2:08 pm

“Global” warming can’t cause colder winters in Europe–if it becomes colder in some parts of the world, the warming isn’t “global” by definition. Europe is still part of the globe!

Ulric Lyons
March 5, 2021 3:34 pm

The North Atlantic Cold Blob of 2013-2015 had fewer slow MOC events, at least after March 2013 which was a very slow MOC event, as were the deep negative NAO/AO episodes both ends of 2010. So with positive NAO/AO there is a faster MOC and a cold blob, and with negative NAO/AO a slower MOC and no cold blob. And the Gulf stream is slower when the MOC is faster.

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March 6, 2021 11:21 am

Remember Asterix and the Soothsayer? (“This I had also foreseen”)

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