Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Here’s how billionaire hype works.
Without presenting a scrap of evidence to back up his claim, Bill Gates, multi-billionaire inventor of the blue screen of death and Mr. Rogers impersonator, says:
“All cities will be affected by climate change, but coastal cities will have the worst problems. Hundreds of millions of people could be forced from their homes as sea levels rise and storm surges get worse. By the middle of this century, the cost of climate change to all coastal cities could exceed $1 trillion . . . each year.”Source
A trillion dollars each year? Really? Let’s take a look.
Per the tide gauge records, the sea level rise has been around 2 mm (0.08 inches) or so per year for about a century. There MAY have been a slight rise in that in the last couple of decades, although the data is unconvincing. The rise is due to the splicing of the satellite data onto the tide level data. I wrote about this in a post called “Inside The Acceleration Factory“.
But for the sake of Bill’s claim, let’s suppose that sea-level rise was to double by 2050. Highly doubtful, of course, but let’s pretend it could happen. That would mean that over the period until 2050, the average rise would be 3 mm (0.12 inches) per year.
It’s 29 years until 2050. So even with this high estimate, that means that the sea level would only rise by about 9 centimeters (3.4 inches) by 2050.
So I ask you—how is a 3.4 inch (9 cm) rise in sea level going to cost coastal cities a trillion dollars? The smallest waves are that large. And how will that slight rise force “hundreds of millions of people” from their homes?
Obviously, it won’t. Even if the rise were 50% greater than my figures, it still won’t. That’s just billionaire sea level hysteria. In most cities the tidal range is on the order of six feet or so (a couple of meters) from top to bottom … so unless you had an accurate tide gauge, you would never even notice the difference.
But heck, it’s Bill Gates, and he’s rich, so well-meaning fools believe him.
As I’ve mentioned before … math. Don’t leave home without it.
And let me add a second rule—don’t trust billionaires. Guess what? They just might not have your best interests at heart …
PS—An alert commenter points out that despite his hype about seaside buildings being flooded, it didn’t stop Señor Gates from buying a house on the beach in lovely San Diego.
Yessiree, that’s not hypocritical at all.