And Lockdown Crazy California Jumps Into the Lead

State/Territory Average Daily Cases per 100k in Last 7 Days
West Virginia66.7
New York*61.1
Rhode Island57.4
New Mexico54.3
North Carolina51.3
New York City*51.1
New Jersey46.1
New Hampshire44.8
South Carolina43
South Dakota43
District of Columbia32.4
North Dakota26.9
Puerto Rico21.5
Virgin Islands9.1
Northern Mariana Islands1.5
American Samoa0
Federated States of Micronesia0
Republic of Marshall Islands0
Data source:

Just more evidence of some of the biggest policy failures in history.

Likely the French Laundry dinner was the super spreader event that put it all in motion.

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December 29, 2020 2:16 pm

Positive tests are more a function of how many people are tested than how widespread the virus is. Currently California ranks 40th out of all the states in deaths/capita with 58. New Jersey leads with 205. Some attribute the disparity to poor test performance.

Reply to  markl
December 29, 2020 2:41 pm

PCR tests are worthless. Just keep cycling the sample until you get a positive result.

Reply to  bluecat57
December 30, 2020 12:23 am

PCR is not a test. Full stop. Period. Even the inventor said so, just before he died.

Reply to  paranoid goy
December 30, 2020 5:27 am

Of covid?

Reply to  paranoid goy
December 30, 2020 5:48 am

PCR is an extremely sensitive, extremely specific test technique. I happen to know since I have extensive experience of biological taxonomy where it is a very important technique. The main problem with it is that it requires very high cleanliness standards to avoid contamination.

Andy H
Reply to  markl
December 29, 2020 2:47 pm

The highest death rates (anywhere) is in the Bronx in New York, where it is about 0.35% of the local population. This probably reflects the age, health and health care in that part of New York. New York has had a very tough lockdown system.

Los Angeles in California is .24% and climbing.

Carl Friis-Hansen
Reply to  markl
December 29, 2020 2:56 pm

markl, it is correct to use the mortality, instead of tests and cases as those are extremely unreliable and non essential.

However, the mortality change from year to year has to be compensated and weighted for population change and change in age groups.

It is tedious work, which only very have have taken the time to do.

Samuel Eckert just did so and presents his results for central and northern Europe in this 50 minutes video:
I will see if I can contact Samuel Eckert and ask him if he could dob in English or if he knows some other English speaking group doing similar work.

After having seen the video myself, a couple of conclusion can be drown for central and northern Europe:

  • Non of the countries experienced a genuine epidemic in 2020.
  • The countries with the least lock-down tend to perform better.
  • UK, although not epidemic, was hard hit with no obvious explanation.
  • Iceland, Finland, Sweden and Norway were among the best performers and had very few restrictions, but semi closed borders.
Andy H
Reply to  Carl Friis-Hansen
December 29, 2020 3:09 pm

UK NHS moved older patients out from hospitals into old people’s homes- which were full of vulnerable people. The NHS was freeing up space for a disease they expected would infect everyone and kill 3% of the population. Some of the patients were infected and they spread Covid all around. There were no tests and the homes couldn’t move their residents out.

Reply to  Carl Friis-Hansen
December 29, 2020 11:31 pm
  • The countries with the least lock-down tend to perform better.
  • UK, although not epidemic, was hard hit with no obvious explanation.
  • Iceland, Finland, Sweden and Norway were among the best performers and had very few restrictions, but semi closed borders.

You should keep in mind that the UK has a very different population than, say, Sweden. England has 55m people compared to 10m in Sweden. More to the point though is that the population of England is largely concentrated into three regions, western M62, west midlands and the SE. This makes comparisons very difficult.

Reply to  3x2
December 30, 2020 8:56 pm

“The countries with the least lock-down tend to perform better.”

New Zealand had a really harsh lockdown. See where they are now.

Reply to  Ric Werme
December 31, 2020 4:57 am

New Zealand, a sparsely populated country, where movement in and out of the country and between towns is easily controlled and living in semi isolation is normal for the farming communities due to the distances involved. If you want to compare harsh lockdown regimes, look to China (if you can see through the great firewall).
Another place is Northern Cyprus, another island nation (Turkish colony) that has blocked all movement, border to the south is closed. They are now 60 days virus free.

Reply to  Carl Friis-Hansen
December 30, 2020 3:51 am

thanks for the link. Would be interesting to see what he has without the maniacal commentary. He’s like Ben Shapiro in German.

Last edited 2 years ago by Greg
Reply to  Carl Friis-Hansen
December 30, 2020 5:59 am

Sweden has performed very badly with high mortality and the medical system is now close to collapse. I know since I am unlucky enough to live there. 243 new deaths today which is equivalent to about 8,000 in the US:

New laws that permit stricter close-down are due to come into force Jan.10.

Norway, Finland and Denmark with stricter lockdown rules have done much better.

Reply to  markl
December 29, 2020 3:48 pm

58 deaths per capita is a pretty neat trick.

Reply to  harry
December 29, 2020 4:02 pm

It’s worse than we thought.

Reply to  harry
December 29, 2020 4:02 pm

Yes, even cats only have nine lives.

Shanghai Dan
Reply to  Scissor
December 30, 2020 1:27 pm

Yeah, but that saying was created in like 1923. Inflation has upped that to at least 60…

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  markl
December 29, 2020 7:50 pm

Yes, CA was sitting at around 3,000 new cases each day from late Aug through late Oct and then started climbing to an average of about 30,000 new cases each day for the last three weeks due to the number of people tested, not the virus.

Daily deaths in CA have been averaging around 200 for the past few weeks whereas they were below 100 every day from late Oct through late Nov due to increased testing, not the virus.

The “function of how many people are tested” notion explained April vs June or July.

CA’s 14-day positivity rate steadily climbed from 5.6% on 11/23 to 12.5% on 12/27.

That’s not a “function of how many people are tested.”

Reply to  Michael Jankowski
December 29, 2020 8:06 pm

If you don’t test anyone, the Chinese Flu disappears. It you test lots of people, you get lots of positive tests.

This is why ‘Test! Test! Test!’ was pushed early on, because they knew the easiest way to create a scary number of ‘cases’ was to test a lot of people.

Reply to  MarkG
December 30, 2020 3:40 am

In the Daily Telegraph (a New South Wales paper), the front page demanded that more people get tested, so they’d have more positive results to justify their lockdown.

Ann Banisher
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
December 30, 2020 7:58 am

We are in San Diego county. 3.3 million. There have been a total 150k cases since March (<5%).
85% of the ‘cases’ are under age 60, but only about 15% of the deaths (zero deaths under 20)
So if you are under 60, your chances of dying are about 4/100ths of 1% (about the same odds as being a co2 molecule in the atmosphere)
My 94 yr old MIL was in a car accident with 4 broken ribs and punctured lung. 10 days in ICU then transferred to acute care where they told us on day 3 that her roomie was positive for covid.
We pulled her out that day and have been taking care at home. She tested positive 4 days later. No symptoms but she is touch and go. If she dies, she will be another tragic covid death. That is what a ‘typical’ covid death looks like.

Reply to  Michael Jankowski
December 30, 2020 8:42 am

If you look at the 7 day moving average of deaths per day, and positive cases per day for California, they match quite well during the autumn surge. This implies that tests are doing a pretty good job of showing the rate of COVID19 infections.

Emily Daniels
Reply to  mesoman
January 5, 2021 5:25 am

The problem with that assessment is that the deaths should be trailing the cases by about 3 weeks, if the cases were causing the deaths. I have noticed the same pattern in Michigan, where deaths and cases are tracking very close to the day. This implies that a lot of dying or already dead people are testing positive but not so many of the general population.

December 29, 2020 2:40 pm

South Carolina with half that and they are acting like we are all going to die!

Reply to  bluecat57
December 30, 2020 6:17 am

Try crossing the border to your northern neighbor. The rhetoric is worse.

Reply to  SPM
December 30, 2020 6:45 am

But we were elected to keep you “safe”. No, you were elected to do MY bidding as my elected employee. (h/t shit, can never remember the rocker’s name when I need it)

December 29, 2020 2:44 pm

It’s interesting to compare the trends of the more free states with those of the less free states. A month or two ago, the news had the Dakota’s burning with a fever , and they’re way over the hump compared to the lockup states.

Charles Higley
December 29, 2020 3:30 pm

Everyone who has a brain knows that the viruses of the flu season come and go every year. The idea that this virus is “resurging” is a pure lie. The virus is long gone, particularly because the purported virus has never been identified or isolated, The crappy nonspecific PCR test and antibody test are picking up the viruses of the new, current flu season. This is a cosmic joke and crime against the public.

Reply to  Charles Higley
December 30, 2020 7:57 am

For your information PCR tests are <i>extremely</i> specific. And CoVid-19 virus is less closely related to an influenza virus than a human is to a cauliflower.

Abolition Man
December 29, 2020 3:37 pm

When are TPTB going to throw out the PCR test and start using the rapid antigen test instead? It is faster and less expensive, but maybe it doesn’t give as many false positives as the PCR!
Are hospitalizations and deaths rising rapidly or are we experiencing a casedemic with a seasonal virus and hair-on-fire leaders?

Reply to  Abolition Man
December 29, 2020 8:07 pm

They’ll do it when they decide they want the disease to go away. The tests are chosen to produce the desired result, not to tell us anything about reality.

Reply to  Abolition Man
December 29, 2020 11:09 pm

It’s a “case-demic”! I’ve been saying that for months now.
It’s all about pushing the Fear Fear Fear narrative to grow their government power and authority, and growngovernment!!

Reply to  Abolition Man
December 30, 2020 12:27 am

“…but maybe it doesn’t give as many false positives as the PCR!”

  1. PCR is not a test.
  2. You obviously missed the bit where a can of coke, a kiwifruit, a pawpaw and a goat all “tested positive” with the “rapid test”?
John F Hultquist
December 29, 2020 3:42 pm
  • Stop testing – – – problem solved.
  • The Bear should be demoted as a CA symbol. Delta smelt, works.
  • Song: <a href=””><strong>Mike Stinson’s ” The Late Great Golden State”</strong></a>
John F Hultquist
Reply to  John F Hultquist
December 29, 2020 4:02 pm

Crazy html
Song: <a href=””><strong>Mike Stinson’s * The Late Great Golden State*</strong></a>

John F Hultquist
Reply to  John F Hultquist
December 29, 2020 4:04 pm

Why is it substituting curly quotes for my straight ones?

Reply to  John F Hultquist
December 29, 2020 4:04 pm

Just call it a sunburned polar bear. That way they won’t have to change anything.

Carl Friis-Hansen
Reply to  John F Hultquist
December 29, 2020 4:31 pm

On a separate line, just write the URL to the YT video
::: :::

John F Hultquist
Reply to  Carl Friis-Hansen
December 30, 2020 8:34 am

Thanks. I’m never sure if the site host wants the picture and such to appear.

I still think this site isn’t handling quote marks correctly.

Joel O'Bryan
December 29, 2020 4:33 pm

Hopefully Cal voters will send “Let them eat cake” Governor Nuisance to the recall waste-bin.

Mike Dubrasich
December 29, 2020 5:30 pm

There’s some goods news: influenza has disappeared. My guess as to why is school closures, assuming that school children are the primary flu vectors. The ChiComFlu doesn’t seem to infect or affect children. That’s pure speculation on my part. Here are some data:

From the CDC’s FluView Report as of Dec 19, 2020

No influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported to CDC during week 51. A total of one influenza-associated pediatric death occurring during the 2020-2021 season has been reported to CDC.

Clinical labs No. of positive specimens (%) Cumulative since Sept. 27, 2020: 720 from 319,985 tests

Public Health labs No. of positive specimens (%) Cumulative since Sept. 27, 2020: 135 from 196,992 tests

Percentage of Visits for Influenza-like Illnesses (ILI Reported by the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet) Weekly National Summary , 2020-2021 and Selected Previous Seasons

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
December 29, 2020 5:44 pm

Correction: I must withdraw my speculation because states where schools are open also have no flu. The disappearance of influenza is a complete mystery.

Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
December 29, 2020 5:55 pm

i think the general focus on social distancing and personal hygiene has a lot to do with it.

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  Charles Rotter
December 29, 2020 10:26 pm

Thank you, Charles, for all you do as well as your pictorial comment.

It’s so true that whatever was imposed (weak or stong) for COVID failed and yet is credited for eradicating influenza. The argument defies scientific logic.

They are both single strand RNA viruses and are highly contagious. Vaccines against the flu have been largely unsuccessful. Major outbreaks happen every year, and in some years have caused much more mortality than COVID. And yet this year the flu is rare, so far.

It is a puzzle that has not yet been discussed by expert virologists and epidemiologists — so far as I know. If you happen on any decent science that explores the issue, please post it at WUWT.

Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
December 30, 2020 5:11 am

talking to others in my area the flu I didnt have acc to tests then…in oct/nov last yr that was so bad after 3 days I went to hospital coughing so badly I couldnt sleep for 24+hrs hurt ribs and stomach muscles non breaking fever for the 3 days and low oxy levels
and a good 3mths feeling like a kitten strength wise
was suffered by quite a few around here
the results showed NONE of the 4 standard that yr strains ONLY they were testing for and no cold virus
pre covid of course…
quite a lot of us suspect that os travellers here brought it in early
covid nasal swabs of course now show zero
but I admit Id like an antibody test for curiousity sake

Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
December 30, 2020 6:43 pm

I believe the reason it not yet been discussed, is that “expert virologists and epidemiologists” really don’t know yet. All (educated?) guesswork.

December 29, 2020 5:38 pm

I wonder if lockdowns in California is a particularly ineffective due to the demographics of the state. Cost of living and cost of real estate is very high and people of modest means likely live in pretty tight quarters. During a lockdown, essential employees are still permitted to go to work in jobs like retail, food delivery, cleaning and maintenance. Those people interact with a lot of other people so their chance of catching the disease from a stranger is high and then return to a cramped household with lots of people and little space so spread it among family (who are working similar types of service jobs). I suspect if one member of a household like that were to get sick other household members who have no symptoms of the illness will just keep on working. Then throw in the fact that 10% of LA county’s population is undocumented and never received Cares Act benefits and likely won’t get much from the new bill. They will continue to work service jobs to get by. In essence, a stay at home order will much more effective for the educated and affluent that can work from home but has no effect on the rate of transmission for the less educated and less well off in service jobs, particularly those who might be undocumented immigrants. This might explain why Latinos have double the Covid infection rate of other ethnic groups.

Reply to  Sean
December 29, 2020 6:03 pm

My nearest neighbors are 200 meters away and I live alone. I haven’t had flu either. since i’ve been living here (27 yrs) in fact colds and flus never really bothered me unless I went to London on business. I ALWAYS caught a cold.
Our medical practice here has no reported cases at all.

My wet finger guess is that population density is the biggest risk of all.
A very simple model would suggest that infection (rate and severity) would go up somewhere between the inverse square and cube of the average distance between people.

IIRC a few test and trace studies showed that the biggest risk was a supermarket for people in lockdown

Last edited 2 years ago by Leo Smith
Reply to  Sean
December 29, 2020 6:35 pm

Demographics is a big factor. Melbourne, Australia recorded a rapid increase in infections in the second wave once it was spread amongst contract security guards in charge of hotel quarantine. The guards often came from communities of recent immigrants from sub-saharan countries living in cramped public housing with often 12 people across three generations. There command of English was poor as well so written warnings and written instructions meant nothing to them.

It was recorded that each guard was issued with a single mask that was used for days and, although not reported, likely shared their mask with others if they forgot to bring theirs in for a shift – what could go wrong with this!

Melbournians have set the world record for consecutive days in house arrest but it was effective in eliminating the virus. Currently zero cases from community spread and has been that way for just over 2 months. Being Covid free is highly prized by Melbournians. It came at significant cost in terms of loss of free movement.

Reply to  RickWill
December 30, 2020 5:14 am

and tonight?
3 cases show up in melb suburbs prob from nsw incoming

Loren C. Wilson
Reply to  Sean
December 30, 2020 11:59 am

This is the dynamic of the workers in the Mid-western meat packing plants. Many live in groups in rented houses or apartments, and when one is infected, the rest get it easily.

December 29, 2020 5:51 pm

So correlation is causation after all?
It couldn’t possibly be that california is a crowded urban state?

Reply to  leo smith
December 29, 2020 7:42 pm

Japan, too.

Reply to  n.n
December 29, 2020 9:32 pm

Odd, isn’t it, that one of the most urbanized countries on the planet has had very few deaths and not destroyed their economy to achieve it?

Reply to  leo smith
December 30, 2020 10:41 am

Parts are. Parts are very much not.

Along the coast, it’s pretty crowded, but go inland a bit (ignoring Sacramento), it’s much more rural. Also a lot more like Texas than coast California, although run by crazy people.

Note that the eastern/northern portions of the state are showing much better numbers than the rest of the state.

December 29, 2020 6:15 pm

it’s been 3 months since covid began increasing in october… lockdowns and restrictions everywhere… everyone masking up indoors and a vast majority of them also outdoors… and yet cases and deaths keep increasing?

LOCKDOWNS AND MASKS DON’T WORK. those who have eyes to see…. see. those who have ears to hear…. hear. the non-science crowd is amazing… they’d make the 16 century Catholic Church blush with their house arrest of Galileo

Reply to  goracle
December 29, 2020 7:49 pm

Hands down, avert your gaze. Masks, generally, no. Lockdowns, it depends on the transmission mode, which it is apparent that they have mischaracterized. To their credit, there may be more than one strain, each with differing transmission modes. Wash your hands. Watch your mask. And don’t forget the goggles, for people inclined to follow the second rule. Seek early treatments, not necessarily the vaccines. Despite the denial and stigma attached to the former by experts, politicians, press et al., they have been demonstrated to be effective in a global laboratory and clinical trials.

Last edited 2 years ago by n.n
Reply to  n.n
December 29, 2020 9:33 pm

At best, the ‘lockdowns’ delayed the spread of the disease into the winter when it would be more likely to kill people.

Reply to  goracle
December 30, 2020 2:34 am

On the other hand, why have I not had a cold or sore throat since Jan 2020? I’d normally have had 3 or 4 by now. I put it down to social-distancing and wearing a mask when out shopping.

December 30, 2020 12:21 am

None of these “statistics” mean anything without an accompanying column stating the number of ‘tests” done. The more tests, the more “cases”, because even fruit and coca cola “tests positive”. Maybe if we just ignore them, they’ll go away?

December 30, 2020 12:28 am

From the UK
Merthyr Tydfil currently has the highest case rate in Wales, at 1,022.8 per 100,000,
closely followed by Bridgend with 1,021.4.

JP Guthrie
December 30, 2020 12:44 am

Here in Japan there has been an increase in positive tests and hospital admissions, but the numbers are nothing like in the spring. A few die every day from COVID, but the numbers are less than what are normally caused by the flu. Oddly enough, Japan will see fewer overall deaths from all causes this year than in 2019 or 2018.

For those who don’t know, Japan has not mandated any lockdowns or restrictions. For 6 weeks last spring there was a declared national emergency, and the government asked schools and businesses to close, but there was no requirement that they do so, and no consequences whatsoever for any who decided to remain open.

Today in Japan life is more or less normal. Kids have been in school since June 1st, government buildings never closed (the taxpayers have a right to the public services they pay for, and public servants are required to serve the public, hell or high water). Shops, stores, restaurants, and theaters are open as usual.

December 30, 2020 3:36 am

The harsher the lockdown lock up, the worse the case numbers.

Tom Abbott
December 30, 2020 5:39 am

These Wuhan virus infections are overwhelming the hospital system, and yet the medical associations are *still* not recommending Early Treatment which would keep the numbers of people going to the hospital down.

The Hydroxycholoriquine treatment is said to keep 84 percent of patients out of the hospital if they are treated right after they test positive.

Other therapeutics, of which there are about a half-a-dozen or more, offer similiar results and are reported to keep people from getting sick enough to go to the hospital.

But the Left and especially the Leftwing News Media demonized therapeutics because President Trump was promoting them, and this caused the professional medical associations to clamp down on using therapeutics, even though the evidence shows they are effective at keeping people out of the hospital.

So an effective medical treatment for the Wuhan virus is being withheld from the American people purely out of politics and out of a hatred on the part of the Left of *anything* Trump.

The radical Left and the medical associations have the blood of many people on their hands with their deliberate mishandling of the Wuhan virus.

The science says treat Early. The politicians ignore the science because it might make President Trump look good. Lives are not important, just appearances are, to the inhuman Left.

Abolition Man
Reply to  Tom Abbott
December 30, 2020 7:50 am

There are about two dozen studies now showing the effectiveness of the HCQ/zinc/antibiotic regimen when used early or as a prophylaxis. Studies of ivermectin seem to indicate it is even more effective than HCQ; but you have to look at it all in context!
These inexpensive treatments would severely cut the profits to be made by the pharmaceutical corporations and their patent holders like dr. Fauxi! They also would have removed the need for mail-in ballots that were essential to stealing the 2020 election! You are only talking about a few hundred thousand deaths globally; what is that compared to the DemoKKKrats being able to seize and hold power in perpetuity?

Caligula Jones
December 30, 2020 12:47 pm


Here in Ontario, Canada, our Minister of Finance left for St. Bart’s on December 16th…and was just caught yesterday.

Yeah, the guy who helped shut down Ontario’s tourism industry, including ski hills FFS, is spending money in the Caribbean – after we’ve been locked down. Again.

December 30, 2020 1:01 pm

William Briggs on why lockdowns cannot succeed.

“Why Lockdowns Spread Bugs Faster Than Liberty: Coronavirus Update XLVI”

“Lockdowns are merely forced gatherings. People in lockdown are allowed to venture forth from their dwellings to do “essential” activities, like spending money at oligarch-run stores. These stores are collection points, where people are concentrated. Some are allowed to go to jobs, such as supporting oligarch-run stores.”

December 30, 2020 8:52 pm

So much for

How about if WUWT just passes on climate change until everyone who wants to be vaccinated is and President Trumps hands over the Oval Office?

Reply to  Ric Werme
December 30, 2020 9:52 pm

Ric – it’s because fake science pisses us off, and must be pointed out whenever it sprouts it’s ugly head.

January 1, 2021 4:50 pm

These are NOT cases, NOT cases, NOT cases – they are infections (or remnants of prior colds). The abuse of language by the Marxist press and politicians is a simple attempt to yell “Fire” in a crowded theater. Imagine that 97 x 100K per day in CA went to hospitals or their doctors. That IS NOT happening, repeat…NOT happening.

This is all a lie! We must stand up to this totalitarian governance and cast off our Nazi nappies to free ourselves for the new year! This is the first step. The next is to take back the language.

Reply to  Bill
January 1, 2021 5:02 pm

That’s 97 per 100K per day (in CA that’s 32K per day or 225K per week).

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