Australian Covid-19 Containment Cracks: Cases Spreading New South Wales and Possibly Queensland

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

New Aussie lockdowns coming? While Australia’s sun drenched Summer weather is a natural advantage which has helped us contain local Covid infections, the epidemic in Australia is far from over, with ongoing sporadic outbreaks. The latest outbreak could be about to go national.

Coronavirus updates LIVE: Northern beaches COVID cluster grows in Sydney as new case confirmed in Cronulla; NSW remains on high alert

By Josh Dye
Updated December 18, 2020 — 10.56am

  • Sydney’s northern beaches residents have been asked to stay in their homes after a coronavirus cluster in the area reached 17 cases on Thursday
  • Tasmania has shut its border to anyone who has been in northern beaches on or since December 11
  • Queensland, Victoria and the Northern Territory have asked people who have been on the northern beaches to quarantine for 14 days. WA went a step further and imposed this on anyone from NSW
  • NSW Health has added more than a dozen new locations – including an Aldi supermarket, Commonwealth Bank branch and a Chemist Warehouse outlet – to its list of COVID-impacted venues in the northern beaches
  • Overnight, French President Emmanuel Macron tested positive for COVID-19 after developing symptoms. There have now been over 74 million cases globally and 1.6 million deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins University tally

Read more: https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-sydney-remains-on-high-alert-after-northern-beaches-covid-19-cluster-grows-to-17-20201217-p56okd.html

Note the link to the article contains a video describing how one infected person from NSW is known to have travelled to Queensland, visiting Brisbane and staying overnight on the Sunshine Coast before being diagnosed.

The source of this latest outbreak appears to be a quarantine failure;

Northern beaches cluster reaches 28 cases, Sydney placed on high alert

For our free coronavirus pandemic coverage, learn more here.

By Mary Ward and Josh Dye
Updated December 18, 2020 — 1.36pm

The coronavirus cluster on the northern beaches grew to 28 cases on Friday, as NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian confirmed the source of the new infections was from overseas.

Genome sequencing of cases identified in the Avalon cluster confirmed overnight that it does not match any virus strains in recent Australian clusters and is a very close match to the virus in a woman currently in hotel quarantine who flew in from overseas on December 1.

Read more: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/northern-beaches-cluster-reaches-28-cases-20201218-p56oo4.html

Anyone who claims one big lockdown and it is all over is talking out of their proverbial. Australia has tremendous natural advantages – hot, often humid weather, strong borders / geographical isolation, and a low population density. Yet even Australia cannot keep Covid-19 completely contained, it keeps coming back.

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gavalanche
December 18, 2020 2:11 pm

yawn

Howard Dewhirst
December 18, 2020 2:32 pm

Australia’s east coast has not seen much sun lately due to La Niña storms and floods

TimTheToolMan
December 18, 2020 2:41 pm

Ultimately only a vaccine can stop the spread.

Reply to  TimTheToolMan
December 18, 2020 2:57 pm

actually herd immunity, immunity gained either from an effective vaccine or naturally acquired immunity via infection.

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 18, 2020 3:37 pm

Umm…herd immunity naturally acquired via infection REQUIRES COVID to spread.

AndyHce
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
December 18, 2020 4:24 pm

But only a very small percentage of infected have any serious symptoms.
Until enough have been infected and thus there is “herd immunity” enough to prevent much further spreading, the virus will continue to find many available hosts every time quarantine is lifted, ultimately resulting in more total deaths.

Greg
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
December 19, 2020 1:40 am

Exactly. That is the problem with the hardline lockdown approach to total confinement, you end up needing to remain in total confinement until such time as you think you have infected sufficient %age of the population with an “effective” vaccine.

Despite all the hardship, loss of earnings, destroyed lives and totalitarian loss of basic civil rights, you are still no better than you were in Feb 2020. A totally naive population with near zero resistance to the virus.

Enginer01
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 19, 2020 1:09 pm

They will not give up!
Governments continue to say that only masks, social isolation and the Miracle Vaccines will save us…
While actual doctors practicing in the field say that HCQ+zinc and Ivermectin would have done the job in the first place. Recent publications indicate that Ivermectin may actually be better than Hydroxychloroquine, especially as a prophylaxis.
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/aiims-study-covid-19/  
 https://trialsitenews.com/us-senate-hearing-explores-ivermectin-as-miracle-drug-for-covid-19-while-mainstream-media-outlets-ignore/
https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/FLCCC-PressConferencePresentation-Dec4-Houston.pdf

Patrick MJD
Reply to  TimTheToolMan
December 18, 2020 3:08 pm

A rapidly developed, little tested, mRNA vaccine? No thanks!

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 18, 2020 3:46 pm

(1) Rapid development was in large part due to mRNA. Welcome to the 21st century. You prefer vaccines generated from pathogens, including vaccines that can cause fatalities in recipients?
(2) How much more testing do you need? What is the number of test subjects and duration before you STFU? Or are you just blindly claiming “little tested?”

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
December 18, 2020 4:30 pm

The PCR test does not test for the virus or the disease. Recent recipients of a vaccine have tested false-positive for HIV. You’ll be way in front of me in the line of guinea pigs accepting this vaccine. Good luck with that!

Bryan A
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 18, 2020 6:31 pm

And so who is first in line?
Those people we place in charge of our societal care and safety
WHO is definitely NOT first in line

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 19, 2020 4:32 am

being fair they INCLUDED HIV dna IN that vaccine in qld- so the finding of +response really isnt surprising it showed it had been incorporated which is the goal.
leaving it out may well have been a wiser option;-)

Patrick MJD
Reply to  ozspeaksup
December 19, 2020 8:18 pm

What else was included?

Bryan A
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
December 18, 2020 6:37 pm

They should live test the vaccines on captive audiences
Prisons & Jails
If the virus stops thriving in that microcosm of society then the vaccines work.
If there are no unintended consequences that come to light then it is safe for “At Large” distribution.

Eric H
Reply to  Bryan A
December 19, 2020 9:47 am

Prisoners in California are 2nd in line after healthcare workers…so I guess the healthcare workers are the guinea pigs here…

Greg
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
December 19, 2020 1:44 am

“before you STFU?”
That’s always a good way to prove you have clear, objective case for your position. I assume you are equally eloquent when discussing climate issues. Let me guess which side of that you are on.

BCBill
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
December 19, 2020 10:46 am

There are still outstanding questions such as we’re the vaccine responses innate or immune? Given the low virulence of Covid, I am expecting the innate response stimulated by the vaccines were pretty significant factors in their effectiveness. And given that the vaccines caused an innate response (fever, runny nose, etc), they could not be properly placebo controlled. And then there is history, ineffective vaccines have never been released before, right? I suppose the lawsuits around the H1N1 swine flu vaccines will be over any year now, and about the recall of the Sanofi Pasteur vaccine for ineffective in children (who were more vulnerable to H1N1), well I am sure your fact checker will tell you that was all a simple little multimillion dollar misunderstanding. Clearly vaccine manufacturers have never been wrong before. Only a denier could believe that they had.

MarkG
Reply to  Michael Jankowski
December 19, 2020 4:40 pm

How many pregnant women were involved in the testing? How many women who later became pregnant were involved? How can you consider something well-tested if you have no idea what effect it might have on fertility and reproduction?

Robert of Ottawa
Reply to  TimTheToolMan
December 19, 2020 5:12 pm

Nothing will Èstop the spreadÈ. Coronaviruses have been around for ever, and we get cold and flu from them regularlry. Apart from being man-made, there is nothing different about this one.

Robertvd
Reply to  TimTheToolMan
December 20, 2020 2:41 am

Luckily ‘Santa Claus is good to go’: Dr Fauci says he vaccinated Father Christmas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEil6VTzXdc

At least we now know the ice is no longer melting.

An upload from Santa himself: “Christmas 2013 might be cancelled!”

https://youtu.be/wr2LCTdIzd4

Last edited 10 months ago by Robertvd
a happy little debunker
December 18, 2020 2:42 pm

Yet again – the States of Australia reject the science to implement unfounded and overly cautious restrictions that do more to suppress the people than suppress a virus.

According to the Federal Health Authorities the definition of a ‘hot spot’ is 30 cases of Covid over a 3 day period from an unknown source(s).

27 cases from known sources is not a ‘hot spot’.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  a happy little debunker
December 19, 2020 4:35 am

its now around 35 cases and the source is NOT known yet. separate carrier who drove aircrews to n from IS a different cluster and he and contacts isolated fast.

December 18, 2020 2:43 pm

<i>” Yet even Australia cannot keep Covid-19 completely contained, it keeps coming back.”</i>
Yes, but there is a difference. Australia has had about 28000 cases. Florida, say, which also has sunshine and sometimes humidity, has had over a million. The current NSW outbreak is 28 cases.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 18, 2020 3:07 pm

Not a fair comparison. Florida is very small and has a larger population. And you are just quoting cases not deaths from COVID-19.

Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 18, 2020 3:55 pm

Australia has had 908 deaths, Florida 20414. Florida’s population is less than Australia, and the area almost as large as Victoria, which has had by far the most cases and deaths here. And Florida is sunnier than Victoria.

Florida had 13000 cases yesterday, Australia 23.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 18, 2020 4:34 pm

20414 deaths from COVID-19 or co-morbidity issues given Florida is the retirement state in the US? We all know many deaths were attributed to COVID-19 because of financial incentives. Population of Florida is about 22 million in an area the size of Victoria.

Last edited 10 months ago by Patrick MJD
Bryan A
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 18, 2020 6:44 pm

That and, WRT death rate, persons over 75 are far more susceptible to dying from the disease and or have other potentially deadly co-morbidity issues.
Q) Will Aus or Fla gain Herd Immunity Status first?

bigoilbob
Reply to  Bryan A
December 19, 2020 8:52 am

Florida looks like it has ~8.5% of it’s population 75 or over. ~6.9% for Australia. Maybe try harder……

goracle
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 18, 2020 4:45 pm

There were over 4200 pneumonia deaths and 1100 influenza deaths in Australia in 2017… I don’t live in Australia. For those who do, was there a call to lockdown and mask up in 2017? If not, why was there no fear mongering with 5300 dead like there is in 2020 with 908 death from Covid? It’s insanity.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  goracle
December 18, 2020 5:05 pm

There were no calls for lockdown during a pretty typical year for deaths from diseases in Australia in 2017.

Reply to  goracle
December 18, 2020 5:10 pm

<i>”like there is in 2020 with 908 death from Covid”</i>
We didn’t mask up because of 908 deaths. We did it to avoid, say, the 20,000 of Florida.

Drake
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 18, 2020 6:02 pm

Florida is OPEN FOR BUSINESS. Is Australia?

Reply to  Drake
December 18, 2020 6:36 pm

Yes

Bryan A
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 18, 2020 6:52 pm

Problem is you’ll need to isolate your country from outside visitors until the CoVid problem is completely resolved (proven vaccine that is near 99% effective/sufficient infection-recovery for heard immunity/the rest of the world successfully attains immunity) or else your populace will again be susceptible

Bryan A
Reply to  Bryan A
December 18, 2020 6:54 pm

Or remain in perpetual lockdown/global isolation

Loydo
Reply to  Bryan A
December 18, 2020 9:44 pm

You think Florida is in a better place?

By my calculation maybe 5% of Floridians are immune…
For a vaccine with 100% efficacy that gives life-long protection, the level of herd immunity as a proportion of the population, pc, required to block transmission is [1 – 1 / R0], where R0 is the basic reproduction number.16 Given an R0 value before lockdowns in most countries of between 2·5 to 3·5, we estimate the herd immunity required is about 60–72%.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32318-7/fulltext
…that is a long way from 70%, let alone being a long way from 100% life-long efficacy.

The only low mortality path to herd immunity is mass vaccination, so Australia and the “the rest of the world” are going to reach that milestone at about the same time; when and only when sufficient numbers are vaccinated with a sufficiently efficacious vaccine.

Meantime most Australians are feeling very, very fortunate of having such miniscule infections/deaths rates and restrictions on their activities. Complacency is probably the biggest danger. With the global infection rate still climbing the risks of new outbreaks are greater now than at any time.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Loydo
December 18, 2020 10:22 pm

Does the vaccine “cure” the latest strain?

MarkG
Reply to  Loydo
December 19, 2020 4:50 pm

Or you could NOT close bars and nightclubs and workplaces so the young people who have almost a 100% survival rate catch it and develop immunity. Instead of sending it into care homes so lots of vulnerable old people die.

Everything governments have done has merely delayed herd immunity. For a disease which barely kills anyone under 50 and has a 99.9% survival rate in the general population.

Why would any sane person care about ‘outbreaks’ of a disease which barely kills anyone and is no worse than other disease which we commonly just ignore?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Bryan A
December 19, 2020 4:41 am

I personally dont have a problem with that at all;-)

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 18, 2020 6:56 pm

Were those masks medically rated N95 masks, worn just once to be effective?

goracle
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 18, 2020 8:26 pm

908 covid deaths – the sky is falling.

5300 pneumonia/flu deaths – crickets.

thanks for the consistency nick…

Reply to  goracle
December 18, 2020 11:49 pm

No, I’m countering Eric’s alarmism about the current outbreak in NSW by showing the proportions. And saying that 908 Covid deaths in 2020, compared with the alternative, is an indicator of purposeful management.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  goracle
December 19, 2020 4:40 am

oh they pushed the hell outta the near useless fluvax jabs the last few years
pity they were either wrong or didnt work even when they did have the circulating strains
of course the superdose elders vax is STILL only 30% max useful anyway lasts around 3 mths but only one jabs given yearly anyway.
and the majority deaths are elderly ill and locked inside low vit d and die of pneumonia anyway

Robertvd
Reply to  goracle
December 19, 2020 6:47 am

Australia 26M people. If they all live to be 100 years than every year 260 000 people will die if you like it or not.

Robertvd
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 19, 2020 7:38 am

In Florida with a population of 19 M if they all live to be 100 years old 190,000 will die every year and in Australia 270,000.
Old and weak people die.

Drake
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 19, 2020 10:25 am

Australia’s land area is around 45 times that of Florida. Cherry picking much?

All of the theme parks and tourist attractions in Florida are open for business.

Why compare to Florida and not Michigan where the Governor of your political leanings has been locking down for most of the China scare? Michigan theme parks are CLOSED. People from Michigan must leave the state for vacation and recreation.

Just like “Climate Science”, phony politically based crap comments Nick.

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 18, 2020 3:55 pm

“Sometimes humidity”…lol.

The Koppen climate zone classification for almost all of Florida is HUMID SUBTROPICAL, and then there are Monsoon and Rainforest areas as well.

Scissor
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 18, 2020 4:07 pm

There are numerous other factors including demographics, as well as possible cross reactive immunity.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00460-4

Loydo
Reply to  Eric Worrall
December 18, 2020 9:52 pm

Or just failing to take the risk seriously, or even dismissing it and in doing so utterly fail to provide leadership when it was most needed.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Loydo
December 18, 2020 10:26 pm

Do you self-isolate and test test test each time you have a cold?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Eric Worrall
December 19, 2020 5:07 am

Australia does not have thousands of people from the northern US coming to infect the local population like Florida does. The snowbirds are among us and the infection rate for the area is up as is hospitalizations. Not only do they bring their winter diseases with them, they bring their arrogant and egomaniac attitudes.

Fight Climate Fear. Warmer is Better.

Wade
Reply to  Nick Stokes
December 18, 2020 4:53 pm

FACT: The US CDC told doctors they could count a person as a COVID-19 death, even without a COVID-19 test. Source: https://web.archive.org/web/20200405161118/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm (The updated document does not contain this quote.)

When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death – or when it is listed as a “probable” or “presumed” cause — the death is coded as U07.1. This can include cases with or without laboratory confirmation.

FACT: Hospitals in the United States make more money off COVID-19 deaths. Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

FACT: Healthcare in the United States is a business.

So, take those three facts together and use common sense. Suppose you had a business where you could make more money just by checking a box when something happened and nobody would verify you were telling the truth. How many businesses would be honest? The COVID-19 death count is massively overinflated. How many people have died with a flu or pneumonia or a common cold and have been counted as COVID-19? How many have died without the disease and counted as a COVID-19 death? I personally know of one person who died of a heart attack and didn’t have the disease, but was counted as a COVID-19 death. But since it is anecdotal, I cannot prove it.

Another source: https://www.wisn.com/article/milwaukee-county-medical-examiner-says-states-coronavirus-death-count-too-high/34226894

Of course, all-cause mortality is up this year. You can thank 4 idiot governors for putting sick people in nursing homes for that. And a mild flu 2018/2019 season. And a huge jump in deaths by suicide due to the lockdown.

Reply to  Wade
December 18, 2020 5:25 pm

According to CDC projections, all cause mortality in the US in 2020 will be the lowest since 2016. Approximately 94% of wuflu deaths are due to co-morbidities and the actual toll from wuflu is presently about 17k.

Tom Foley
December 18, 2020 2:47 pm

Covid19 doesn’t keep coming back within Australia, it keeps re-entering from overseas and then escaping from quarantine. Perhaps vaccination will become a requirement for entry, including for flight crew. Indeed international flight crew should be a priority group for vaccination.

farmerbraun
Reply to  Eric Worrall
December 18, 2020 4:52 pm

Which breeds /species of domestic animals have been tested and found to not carry, or be non- susceptible to Sars -Cov-2?
Asking for Daisy?

PaulH
Reply to  farmerbraun
December 18, 2020 5:37 pm

Daisy might start with the Worms and Germs blog from the University of Guelph (Ontario, Canada).

https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/tags/covid-19/

It’s a little cluttered, but they examine the susceptibility of various animals to the WuFlu.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Eric Worrall
December 19, 2020 4:48 am

the cats were around owners who gave it to them , ditto a couple of dogs) so far NO evidence they or dogs can spread it further
like Hendra bats to horses to humans 2 dogs showed antibodies but were killed with NO PROOF at all they could infect anyone or any other animals at all

Greg S.
Reply to  Tom Foley
December 18, 2020 4:33 pm

Perhaps vaccination will become a requirement for entry

Papers please!

Derg
Reply to  Greg S.
December 18, 2020 5:29 pm

Exactly Tom!

And Nick wants to see you papers

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Greg S.
December 18, 2020 6:52 pm

That day *IS* coming. Joyce, the COE of QANTAS, stated a few weeks ago that all passengers boarding their flights *MUST* prove they have had a vaccine shot. He backed down a few days later. But, the day is coming. In the UK, the NHS issues cards to show you have been “treated”.

Broadie
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 18, 2020 8:11 pm

Shouldn’t be too hard to knock one of those up. A scanner and a bit of editing and hey presto Certified vaccinated.
Will the airlines be allowed to search your medical records and who will maintain such a vaccination database?

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Broadie
December 18, 2020 10:23 pm

You won’t get a choice! In Australia we have bio-metric passports that contain your entire medical history.

Last edited 10 months ago by Patrick MJD
ozspeaksup
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 19, 2020 4:51 am

huh? the biometrics are facial scanners
our health records are NOT linked
the proposed phone app and stiupd code thing is muttering re links to health status records but NOT in use as far as Ive read..yet

Patrick MJD
Reply to  ozspeaksup
December 19, 2020 2:36 pm

Fingerprints too, but you don’t see them on the colour page of your passport. The Australian Passport Act 2005 authorises the agency to collect personal information from any other agency and/or third party. Most of that is written to the RFID chip in the passport.

Broadie
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 19, 2020 5:07 am

Thanks Patrick,
They may have in a powerpoint presentation to some zoom meeting given that impression. I thought there was an opt out for the ‘My Health Record’. So far the escript and health records appear to be hit and miss at any rate.
The Doctors certainly would not want to be held accountable to a Patient for the knowledge of every previous event in the persons life each time they propose a diagnosis. Particularly while hearing a team of Ambulance chasing jackals baying for their blood on every form of advertising 24/7.
My experience is databases require massive resources to maintain and there are problems within and between Departments and between levels of Government as to who controls the data.
So possible, but a massive miss allocation of resources in my opinion particularly when you consider the deaths from influenza are just about non-existent worldwide in 2020 without such a stipulation.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Broadie
December 19, 2020 3:29 pm

Yeah there was an opt out, but there was a cut-off date too. I don’t have much on record here in Australia, most of it is in New Zealand and the UK. I know all medical records were digitised in the UK some time ago.

RexAlan
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 19, 2020 1:37 am

It’s not just Qantas but IATA (International Air Transport Association) that are also thinking of making vaccination a requirement of travel.

Bryan A
Reply to  Greg S.
December 18, 2020 6:59 pm

Nick shows Gum Wrapper

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Tom Foley
December 19, 2020 4:46 am

isolate flight crew in dongas AT the airports so they dont circulate and spread it

Rick Van
December 18, 2020 2:53 pm

So 1.6 million dead…. it is now as deadly as dysentery! Except 30% of dysentery deaths are children, but 1% or less of covid deaths are children, and 70% of covid deaths are those over 70.

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Rick Van
December 18, 2020 3:29 pm

I was looking today at the latest data for the covid deaths in some countries:
Ireland – 93% are 65 and older so those 70 and older are about 85%
Italy – over 85% are 70 and older
Sweden – over 90% are 70 and older
Belgium – 93.8% are 65 and older so those 70 and older are about 88%

None of these countries had even near 0.1% of deaths among children

While without the actual ages, it is difficult to be more accurate but clearly many of these people were – even without covid – nearing the end of their lives.

It would helpful to have:

  1. A list of the comorbidities of those dying with covid
  2. The number of cycles of the PCR test of each to confirm if covid was the primary cause of death
RexAlan
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
December 19, 2020 1:32 am

Thanks a lot Michael. I’m 69 and certainly don’t consider myself half dead.

goracle
Reply to  Rick Van
December 18, 2020 4:53 pm

Rick, you’re assuming the 1.6 million dead number is correct… if the rest of the world is counting Covid deaths like they do in the USA, then this number is very inflated.

Waza
Reply to  Rick Van
December 18, 2020 4:53 pm

In the end we can’t use deaths to evaluate the damages caused by COVID19.
Because COVID19 is very skewed towards old people we must used a more detailed analysis.
Using health economics
A 70 year old aged care resident who’s current quality of life is running at about 40% dies 10 years prematurely loses only 4 quality years.
Cf
A 25 year old who commits suicide loses say 50 quality years.
Both loss of lives are tragic the cost to the community is 12.5 times higher for the suicide.
That’s how we must compare these wasteful lockdowns.

The state of Victoria Australia has about 5million.
If 10% have mild depression due to lockdown that’s about 7% loss of quality of life x .75 years x 500000 people = 26250 years lost
Cf
1000 covid deaths x 10 years lost times say 80% current quality of life. = 8000 years lost

In the above example calculations we can say the heath cost of the lockdown is 3 times worse the the cost of the covid deaths

Bryan A
Reply to  Waza
December 18, 2020 7:02 pm

Send your loss of life bills to Xi J in China

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Rick Van
December 19, 2020 4:52 am

yeah hype of global cases NOT deaths
and even the deaths are low mil or so when the total global pop is Billions

Patrick MJD
December 18, 2020 2:58 pm

Deaths from COVID-19 in Australia, predominantly aged people with co-morbidity issues, is half the deaths as a result of road accidents and a quarter of the deaths by suicide.

RexAlan
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 19, 2020 1:43 am

The deaths statistics would have been the other way around if the virus had been allowed to run free with full sports stadiums, pumping nightclubs and packed restaurants and pubs.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  RexAlan
December 19, 2020 3:33 pm

I don’t recall reading any reports of deaths of people who went to the venues you mention before, during or after the lockdowns. I do recall reading about deaths in aged care facilities with people 75 years or older before, during and after the lockdowns.

bluecat57
December 18, 2020 3:05 pm

“Cases” are meaningless without associated demographics and severity if symptoms. And most of the testing is questionable to begin with. How about just talking about hospitalizations which are all that really matters.

Greg in NZ
December 18, 2020 3:07 pm

The only ‘cases’ we have, nextdoor here in New Zealand, arrive via the international airport every day: 10 yesterday, 3 the day before, 1 the day before that (yet people believe Jacinda has ‘closed’ our borders).

Miraculously, after 2 weeks’ 5-star hotel quarantine, these so-called cases are ‘cured’ and released. Evidence of this cure? No more 86-year-old grannies, with numerous medical complications, have died in a retirement home with the C-virus for months and months…

Just wear your mask, don’t say a word, and be very very afraid: if the climate emergency don’t get ya then the covid one will!

goracle
Reply to  Greg in NZ
December 18, 2020 5:20 pm

The Denmark mask study essentially showed masks don’t work. Two groups – @2500 each in “always wear mask” group and “never wear mask” group. Always wear mask group had 42 infections (1.8%). Never wear mask group had 53 infections (2.1%).

They indicated they couldn’t determine if masks protect uninfected wearers (protective effect) or transmission is reduced from infected mask wearers (source control). What???? The .3% difference is within the margin of error. But you keep wearing your mask because the experts say so – without knowing IF and HOW masks protect.

The bottom line is masks don’t work. Everyone is wearing them everywhere (at least 90% compliance IMO). If masks worked, we would not be continuing to lock down and have insane restrictions since the Covid case spike that began in October (nearly 12 weeks with no end in sight). Insanity.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  goracle
December 18, 2020 6:47 pm

Add to that the promotion here in Australia of re-useable/washable masks which are ZERO% effective at stopping virus transmission.

goracle
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 18, 2020 8:29 pm

mask = the new virtue signal

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 19, 2020 4:57 am

if theyre close woven fabric one cotton one thin nylon and have an interior nonwoven insert with a known safety rated factor then they are more useful than no mask in crowds at least, it was damned hard to track n source the inner fabric but I did manage to get a few metres

Patrick MJD
Reply to  ozspeaksup
December 19, 2020 8:21 pm

If?

n.n
December 18, 2020 3:57 pm

https://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=240963

The HCQ cocktail (HCQ+Zn+AZ) was an effective, inexpensive, low-risk, widely available treatment to reduce hospitalization and deaths by 80 to 90% globally. The Ivermectin protocol is a better preventive, early to mid-range and even late treatment. The disease exhibits a progression in individuals correlated with comorbidity correlated with age. Of note is that before masks were normalized as a prophylactic (despite the scientific evidence of their ineffectiveness), and selective lockdowns to isolate clusters, there was separation of individuals (e.g. “granny”) in different risk classes. The solution is to cut off the transmission vectors and protect individuals in high risk classes. This can happen through draconian, persistent measures with massive collateral damage, or through immunity, whether preexisting, acquired, inoculation, or therapeutic.

Last edited 10 months ago by n.n
Polski
Reply to  n.n
December 18, 2020 5:22 pm

For more information on treatment with ivermectin this site set up by critical care and emergency doctors is worth a read. I also suggest watching the recent news conference which was poorly attended and not widely reported. The doctors passion for treating his patients is powerful.

https://covid19criticalcare.com/

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Polski
December 19, 2020 5:35 am

thats THE best vid this yr
cant be clearer

Bernie Goetz
December 18, 2020 6:03 pm

Suggestion: Instead of relying on vaccines buy a bottle of 300mg BHT capsules (Amazon). When you get real sick you will know, then a 200b person should take four 300mg BHT capsules. Repeat daily as needed, typically several days. Fatigue will gradually fade.

Patrick MJD
December 18, 2020 6:45 pm

I have just received a message from my manager he says that everyone who was in the building, which houses the company I work for and several other companies, as well as a large cafe on the ground floor, last Monday has to be tested because someone, somewhere in the building, tested positive.

Utter madness!

Last edited 10 months ago by Patrick MJD
ozspeaksup
Reply to  Patrick MJD
December 19, 2020 5:44 am

nah cos the aircon systems are dandy spreaders of anything going round, and then theres the lift buttons light switches toilet areas lunchrooms etc to consider. easier to just get the damn test
TGA extracting digit n supporting OUR QLD made rapid test kits would be bloody smart
which is why theyre not approved, cos the tga is tits on a bull useful

Patrick MJD
Reply to  ozspeaksup
December 19, 2020 3:37 pm

The CDC says airborne transmission *MAY* be possible in certain circumstances. I have not read any statement that states it is.

High Treason
December 18, 2020 7:10 pm

Who else has noticed that the suction cups (look like a dunny plunger) on Daleks from Dr Who look just like the attachment spikes on Coronaviruses.
Exterminate, Exterminate. Vaccinate, Vaccinate.
Just why do we need an untested vaccine when HCQ/ zinc and Ivermectin/ zinc work? Noting that vaccine makers are immune from prosecution, if there are injuries associated with the vaccine, we will be denied the basic right of redress. The right of redress for injury is an essential ingredient (along with freedom of speech, freedom of belief, property rights and the right to question) of human freedom. The loss of even one of these fundamental rights means freedom has been compromised. WUWT readers will be only too aware that all these basic rights have been eroded badly by political correctness (aka- Cultural Marxism.)

Gbees
December 18, 2020 7:51 pm

How many cases resulted in hospitalizations or death? Ans: SFA

Move on, open up the ecomony.

Craig from Oz
December 18, 2020 10:10 pm

Quoting from Sydney Morning Herald… yeah…

This Cluster is 28 people in a state of several million in a situation where the health authorities are actively trying to hunt down new cases. Remember, this is the virus that can spread uncontrolled through the community and is a deadly threat and they have found 28 cases?

CASES.

In context riding a bicycle has killed 16 people in NSW alone these past 12 months and all but three were under the age of of 65. Bicycles are clearly killing young Australians. When are we going to ban bicycles?

JCalvertN(UK)
December 19, 2020 3:58 am

Here in London, there are probably more ‘cases’ happily swanning around in my local skate park than there are in the whole of Australia. (I take a perverse pride in saying this.)
The local borough has closed all the schools again as the number of ‘cases’ has started to rise. Well the kids think this is just dandy. Back to the skate park . . . yay!
(OK. So the skate park was fenced-off. But knocking the fence down was the work of a minute and could easily be blamed on the wind.)

As for Oz. What has become of the “Waltzing Matilda”, they’ll never take me alive” rebellious spirit? (I remember attending an Aussie Rules Grand Final 40+ years ago in “Bay 13” – where the crowd of larrikins there drowned-out the national anthem with their own rendition of “Waltzing Matilda”. Those days have long gone it seems.)

Last edited 10 months ago by JCalvertN(UK)
December 19, 2020 6:22 am

I find the claims of millions of deaths worldwide to be dubious at best, at least based on the US numbers that I’ve looked at.

Full disclosure, I’m not in any way qualified or credentialed to make any claims, I was just looking into it because I was curious. I’m not a scientist, researcher, doctor or statistician. I’m a retired enlisted sailor with two years of community college who works as a technical trainer. I’m not trying to portray myself as an expert, and if my analysis is fatally flawed, it’s easy to understand how I could have made the mistake.

With that said, here’s my layman’s analysis: According to the CDC as of Dec 16, the US had had about 2.77 million total deaths. That works out to about 120k per half-month, so add that to the total and you end up with right around 2.9 million total deaths for the year.

According to world-ometer, the population of the US is about 332 million. That results in a death rate for 2020 of 873.5. (By the way, the first time I did this analysis, the CDC numbers only went to December 6 and the rate has gone down with the new numbers rather than up).

The last year of solid statistics from the CDC is 2018, when we had 2.8 million deaths for a death rate of 867.8

It’s notable that if you look at the death rates for the last decade, they have been slowly trending up:

2010: 799.5
2011: 807.3
2012: 810.2
2013: 821.5
2014: 823.7
2015: 844
2016: 849.3
2017: 863.8
2018: 867.8

The average increase across those 8 years is 8.5 per year. An increase of less than six in two years is well within the range of reasonable expectation. this slow increase may very well be just the natural result of lower birth rates and an aging population.

But even if you ignore that and assume that the death rate in 2018 is “normal” and the higher number for 2020 is as a result of COVID (and only COVID, completely discounting increased suicides and homicides that very well may have been caused by the lockdowns rather than the disease), we’re talking about only 57,000 “excess” deaths…not the hundreds of thousands the CDC keeps claiming.

I grant you that the “final” number I came up with for 2020 is only an estimate and that the numbers from the CDC for 2020 are provisional and may change as more data comes in, but I submit that they aren’t going to change THAT much. I think when we have the final numbers in a couple of years, we’re going to find that this pandemic was not nearly as deadly as claimed, that the number of deaths in 2020 is well within what would have been expected even without the pandemic and that ultimately, the “cure” (lockdowns…not the vaccine) was worse than the disease.

Am I wrong?

Bruce Cobb
December 19, 2020 7:19 am

Don’t make Tom Cruise come over there, Australia.



fred250
December 19, 2020 6:39 pm

I’m in the lower north coast region of NSW.

Just had to cancel plans to go to Tasmania to see my aging mum in the New Year.

Bummer. !

Patrick MJD
December 20, 2020 9:18 pm

The latest “cluster” here in Australia is less than 40 *CASES* out of over 38,000 tests.

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