The Week That Was: 2020-10-24 (October 24, 2020)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Holmes: I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” – Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s 1891 A Scandal in Bohemia, [H/t James Randi]
Number of the Week: 251.9 million years ago
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Atmospheric Measurements? The generally accepted standard for atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements are the ones from Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii run by NOAA. Writing in No Tricks Zone, Kenneth Richard asks: “Is this the best location to measure global CO2 levels?”
It may be a reasonable location, provided the MPAA carefully maintains the records. Alas, NOAA has not carefully maintained the US surface temperatures, once the gold standard.
In addition to Mauna Loa, NOAA has observatories in the Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow) Alaska, the most northern point of the US; American Samoa, in the middle of the South Pacific; and the South Pole Observatory. According to NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory website:
“We have confidence that the CO2 measurements made at the Mauna Loa Observatory reflect truth about our global atmosphere. The main reasons for that confidence are:
“The Observatory near the summit of Mauna Loa, at an altitude of 3400 m, is well situated to measure air masses that are representative of very large areas.
“All of the measurements are rigorously and very frequently calibrated.
“Ongoing comparisons of independent measurements at the same site allow an estimate of the accuracy, which is generally better than 0.2 ppm.”
This is strange. NOAA’s measurements of carbon dioxide are at 3400 meters (11.150 feet) to assure they are of large air masses and represent large areas. Yet, NOAA’s global climate modelers use highly localized surface temperature data (roughly shoulder height) to make model estimates of the influence of CO2. NOAA’s modelers ignore the temperature trends of the bulk atmosphere, which have been compiled for over 40 years, where CO2 is measured and where the greenhouse effect occurs.
Further, in discussing the background of CO2 levels, the NOAA website presents two sets of data: 1) air that has been artificially dried of all water vapor; and 2) air that has 3% water vapor. When John Tyndall began his experiments in 1859, he began to realize that water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas which keeps the world considerably warmer at night than it would be otherwise. Yet NOAA’s modelers use artificially dried air to calculate the influence of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. See links under Measurement Issues — Surface and Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
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Weather – The Political Football: Last week, TWTW discussed a new report from the UN Office for Disaster Reduction which declared that climate disasters have doubled over the past 20 years (2000-2019). Unfortunately, TWTW did not link to the report and does so now. Among the Themes listed on the website of the report is “Advocacy & Media.” That theme well summarizes the report. Its purpose is to promote the dangers of human emissions of carbon dioxide, whether such dangers exist or not.
Last week, Eric Worrall writing in Watts Up With That had a good review of some of the deficiencies in the report concerning flooding in Asia, particularly China. This week, Paul Homewood addresses deficiencies in the report for US Tornadoes. This week, Paul Homewood compares the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) by Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters – CRED tornado claims with the U.S. annual count of tornadoes maintained by NOAA from 1954 through 2014. Although modern instruments are more capable of recording a tornado than those used in the past, the annual count shows no trend.
Not discussed by Homewood, the U.S. Annual Count of Strong to Violent Tornadoes (F3+), 1954 through 2014 also show no strong trend, but one might claim that violent tornadoes are declining. By far, the worst year was 1974. Further, 1957, 1961, 1965, 1971, and 1973 had as many or more violent tornadoes than 2011, which had the highest number after 1974. As Homewood concludes:
“Remember that EM-DAT record even tiny events, which for instance affect only 100 people. Virtually every tornado which goes through a populated area will qualify under this definition.
“And, of course, the NOAA graph above confirms that the number of tornadoes has been trending down, not up.
“Plainly the EM-DAT database is worthless and should not be used for comparing long term trends.”
It is worth remembering that in 1980 the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) became a World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, and https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends.
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Why Normalize? When comparing different years, or periods, economists like to normalize, to bring things to a standard condition of state. In other words, trends are best discerned on an everything-else-being-equal basis. This does not necessarily mean that there is a static, state. As stated previously, the economist Joseph Schumpeter considered that the normal state of a competitive economy is change – creative destruction. By creating improvements, newly forming processes and companies overcome the dominant positions of older ones. There normalization involves comparing similar-to-similar, or apples-to-apples. The deficiencies in the above discussed report are its failure to normalize the two time periods during an era when human prosperity was growing rapidly. According to Our World in Data, based on World Bank data, the number of people living in extreme poverty in 1990 was 1.9 billion, 36% of the world’s population. By 2015, the number went down to 730 million, about 10% of the world’s population. The CRED report failed to realize the impact of this.
Before the CRED report, Roger Pielke Jr. recognized the IPCC as producing credible reports on extreme weather events. For example, he frequently recognized the UN IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, 2013) because it tried to normalize changes, which the CRED report did not. In August, the journal Environmental Hazards published a paper Pielke finished in July, “Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020: a literature review and assessment.” The Abstract establishes why normalization of economic losses is necessary.
“Nowadays, following every weather disaster quickly follow estimates of economic loss. Quick blame for those losses, or some part, often is placed on claims of more frequent or intense weather events. However, understanding what role changes in climate may have played in increasing weather-related disaster losses is challenging because, in addition to changes in climate, society also undergoes dramatic change. Increasing development and wealth influence exposure and vulnerability to loss – typically increasing exposure while reducing vulnerability. In recent decades a scientific literature has emerged that seeks to adjust historical economic damage from extreme weather to remove the influences of societal change from economic loss time series to estimate what losses past extreme events would cause under present-day societal conditions. In regions with broad exposure to loss, an unbiased economic normalisation will exhibit trends consistent with corresponding climatological trends in related extreme events, providing an independent check on normalisation results. This paper reviews 54 normalisation studies published 1998–2020 and finds little evidence to support claims that any part of the overall increase in global economic losses documented on climate time scales is attributable to human-caused changes in climate, reinforcing conclusions of recent assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.’ [Boldface added]
In the Introduction section of the paper Pielke asserts:
“To successfully employ normalizations methods requires understanding relationships of economic loss, changing patterns of societal vulnerability and exposure, and trends in the frequency and extreme weather events. (IPCC 2012…)”
The 2012 paper is titled: “Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption.” The paragraph continues:
It is essential to emphasize that one should not look for direct evidence of changes in the incidence of weather events in economic loss data – whether normalized or not – climate data will always better serve that purpose. However, because normalization studies seek to remove the effects of changing societal factors in a historical loss record and adjust data to a common base year, trends in normalized losses should be consistent with trends in related weather extremes. Consequently, climate data provide an important independent check on normalization results.” [Boldface added]
The new CRED report, a part of the UN World Health Organization, failed to normalize their results, standardize reported events, and ignored an important independent check of their results. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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“Correct” Environmentalism: The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) was founded in Great Barrington, Massachusetts, in 1933, to promote the concepts of a free market and free society with the role of government confined to the provision of public goods. According to its 2019 Annual Report, its revenues totaled $2.1 million – virtually nothing compared to some major environmental organizations. AIER sponsored the October 4 Great Barrington Declaration authored by noted epidemiologists (physicians) who questioned what they consider the excessive response to COVID-19 by many governments. The opening statement of the Declaration reads:
“As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.”
The final paragraph reads:
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport, and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
By now, it is clear which groups are vulnerable and those which are not. According to the October 23 report by the US Centers of Disease Control and Prevention:
“The total number of excess deaths (deaths above average levels) from January 26 through October 3 ranged from a low of approximately 841 in the youngest age group (<25 years) to a high of 94,646 among adults aged 75–84 years. However, the average percentage change in deaths over this period compared with previous years was largest for adults aged 25–44 years (26.5%)). Overall, numbers of deaths among persons aged <25 years were 2.0% below average, and among adults aged 45–64, 65–74 years, 75–84, and ≥85 years were 14.4%, 24.1%, 21.5%, and 14.7% above average, respectively.”
The “excess deaths” are highly age related, and other conditions which weaken the immune system are often involved. Yet, the signers of the Declaration have been strongly attacked, including a Nobel laureate in Chemistry for expressing the “wrong ideas” about COVID-19.
In defending the sponsoring institute writer Joakim Book commented:
“Much of the outrage over AIER’s sponsoring and hosting of the Declaration had nothing to do with what the scientists in it said, or even the topic of societal disagreement that it captures.”
Apparently, many critics of the Declaration claim it downplays the fictious “environmental crisis” which the UN and many of its followers insist is occurring. The UN and its followers produce hollow evidence such as the CRED report discussed above, which is a collection of faulty analysis. To base policy on questionable evidence is folly; thus, to criticize other folly is anti-environmentalism? See links under Seeking a Common Ground, Science, Policy, and Evidence, https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm#:~:text=Overall%2C%20numbers%20of%20deaths%20among,14.7%25%20above%20average%2C%20respectively and
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Food Security: A favorite topic of “climate crisis” promoters are food security, how the changing climate will destroy food production. As discussed in previous TWTWs, the US Fourth National Assessment by the US Global Change Research Program asserted that US production of corn (maize) and soybeans will suffer from warming. Yet, the biggest US export competitor for these crops is tropical Brazil, In 2019, Brazil fell to third in maize, slightly less than Argentina
Starting this week, TWTW will have a new heading, Changing Technology, to include improvements in food production. Argentina announced it engineered a drought resistant variety of wheat. However, no importing country has yet approved it. The biggest destination for Argentina wheat export is Brazil. See link under Changing Technology.
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Are They Green? Politicians are pushing green vehicles. But avoid the question: will they increase requirements for electricity? In California, the energized system that delivers electrical power (the grid) already has problems to deliver the power when needed the most. The results are blackouts, because solar is unable to deliver power in the late afternoons when sunshine is diminishing.
Of significant interest is what will happen when commuters come home and plug-in their electric vehicles? The governor and legislators of California ignore such difficulties and the regulated utility companies see such issues as opportunities expand regulatory approved costs, thus profit centers because they allow regulated utilities to run up their “rate base” for permitted, regulated profits. A game played at the expense of the general consumer.
In a related issue, power expert Donn Dears discusses the Battery Day presentation by Elon Musk stating:
“To his credit, Musk has assembled an engineering team that identifies problems and then identifies solutions to those problems.
“During the Battery Day presentation, Musk’s engineering leader summarized the following actions that he predicted would result in a 56% improvement in battery cost and a 54% improvement in range.” [Explained in the article.]
See Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles and Article # 1
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Number of the Week: 251.9 million years ago. A paper published in Nature Geoscience is being used to claim a greenhouse catastrophe killed nearly all life during Permian–Triassic mass extinction about 251.9 million years ago. The claim of “greenhouse catastrophe” is based on volcanic eruptions which emitted sulfur dioxide, which is very acidic, and carbon dioxide, which is mildly acidic. This is not evidence that human emissions of carbon dioxide will endanger life on this planet today. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
New Study Finds A Robust Link Between European Temperatures And Solar Activity Via AMO/NAO Modulation
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 22, 2020
Link to paper: Decadal and multidecadal natural variability in European temperature
By Horst-Joachim Lüdeck, et al. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Sep 1, 2020
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364682620301115
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020: a literature review and assessment
By Roger Pielke, Environmental Hazards, Aug 5, 2020
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17477891.2020.1800440?journalCode=tenh20
Tornado Data Shows EM-DAT Is Worthless
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 23, 2020
Crisis looms in alarmist climate science
By David Wojick, CFACT, Oct 20, 2020
https://www.cfact.org/2020/10/20/crisis-looms-in-alarmist-climate-science/
[SEPP Comment: If one accepts that there has been no such thing as an equilibrium climate, then pursuit of an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a pursuit of a myth. A dynamic system is never in equilibrium. What is needed is to establish upper bounds on the influence of a particular physical occurrence that may influence temperatures; and separate the extent humans contribute to such occurrences from nature’s influence.]
Climate Change is Not the End of the World
By Michael Green, Quadrant, Oct 23, 2020
https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2020/10/climate-change-is-not-the-end-of-the-world/
[SEPP Comment: Review of Michael Schellenberger’s Apocalypse Never.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — Nils-Axel Mörner and James Randi, R.I.P
Professor Nils-Axel Mörner, 1938-2020
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Oct 19, 2020
A lullaby in memory of the late Professor Nils-Axel Mörner
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Oct 21, 2020
James Randi: World’s most famous sceptic & climate sceptic dies aged 92
[And magician who recognized the tricks of the IPCC]
By Staff, GWPF, Oct 22, 2020
Link to: AGW Revisited
By James Randi, James Randi Educational Foundation, Dec 15, 2009
Defending the Orthodoxy
UN Report charts huge rise in climate disasters
Press Release by Denis McClean, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Oct 13, 2020
https://www.undrr.org/news/drrday-un-report-charts-huge-rise-climate-disasters
Link to report: The human cost of disasters: an overview of the last 20 years (2000-2019)
By Staff, UNDRR/CRED, 2020
https://www.undrr.org/publication/human-cost-disasters-overview-last-20-years-2000-2019
How a greenhouse catastrophe killed nearly all life
By Staff Writers, Potsdam, Germany (SPX) Oct 20, 2020
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/How_a_greenhouse_catastrophe_killed_nearly_all_life_999.html
Link to paper: Permian–Triassic mass extinction pulses driven by major marine carbon cycle perturbations
By Hana Jurikova, Nature Geoscience, Oct 19, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-020-00646-4
WEF Covid-19 Great Reset: “Today’s consumers do not want … goods and services for a reasonable price.”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 17, 2020
Questioning the Orthodoxy
But if it’s a science…
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 21, 2020
Link to Test: The Dirty Dozen Tests Of Global Warming Science
By Geoffrey Sherrington, WUWT, Sep 11, 2020
Financial experts say
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 21, 2020
“Seriously. If you knew something the financial markets didn’t, something that affected billions of dollars in investment capital, would you write some paper and tell everyone, or run down to your broker (or these days, to your computer to teleconference with your broker) and yell ‘Buy buy buy’.”
Is Mauna Loa Really The Best Location To Measure ‘Global’ CO2 Levels?
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 19, 2020
[SEPP Comment: It may be a reasonable location provided the records are carefully maintained. Other NOAA observatories are in the Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow) Alaska, the most northern point of the US; American Samoa, middle of the South Pacific; and the South Pole Observatory.
Argentina to produce climate-resistant super wheat in world first
It is hoped that the gene-edited crop will reduce water stress and food scarcity across the region
By Jordan Kelly Linden, The Telegraph, Oct 19, 2020
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Unexpectedly large number of trees populate the Western Sahara and the Sahel
By Staff Writers, Paris, France (SPX), Oct 16, 2020
An unexpectedly large count of trees in the West African Sahara and Sahel
By Martin Brandt, et al. Nature, Oct 14, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2824-5
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China As Climate Change Savior: The Triumph Of Hope Over Experience?
By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, Oct 17, 2020
Oxfam: Rich countries are not delivering on $100bn climate finance promise
By Joe Lo, Climate Home News, Oct 20, 2020
“Nearly 80% of climate finance is in the form of loans that must be repaid, adding to the debt burden of the poorest countries, anti-poverty campaigners found.”
[SEPP Comment: Will China make up the difference in 2060?]
Climate Campaigners Horrified Global Shipping Will be Allowed to Grow
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 23, 2020
Macron in last-ditch Brexit punishment with threat to devastate UK with energy blockade
EMMANUEL MACRON confirmed that the EU would launch a devastating energy embargo against the UK if Boris Johnson refuses to give in on fisheries.
By Oli Smith, Express, Oct 19, 2020
[SEPP Comment: So much of UK going 100% non-fossil fuel.]
Hands up! Your fish or your electricity. Macron threatens to cut interconnector to UK
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 20, 2020
Request for Public Nominations for Authors and Scientific/Technical Inputs and Notice of Planned Public Engagement Opportunities for the Fifth National Climate Assessment
By Staff, NASA, Federal Register, Via WUWT, Oct 21, 2020
Climate Catastrophism and a Sensible Environmentalism
By Joakim Book, American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), Oct 22, 2020
How dangerous (or uncommon) is a temperature rise of 2° C above preindustrial values?
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 21, 2020
Delingpole; Nobel Winner Michael Levitt Cancelled for Coronavirus Wrongthink
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Oct 20, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Link to the Great Barrington Declaration
By Drs. Martin Kulldorff, Sunetra Gupa, Jay Bhattacharya, Oct 4, 2020
What SAGE Has Got Wrong
By Mike Yeadon, Lockdown Sceptics, Oct 21, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) UK
Planners ‘must prepare’ for weather extremes – Met Office
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Hasn’t this been done before? Such as, trying to control the Mississippi after the disastrous floods of 1734-35, 1788, 1809, 1825, 1844, 1851, 1874, 1882, 1891, and, particularly, 1927?]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Temperature-related Excess Mortality in Twelve German Cities
Huber, V., Krummenauer, L., Peña-Ortiz, C., Lange, S., Gasparrini, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., Garcia-Herrera, R. and Frieler, K. 2020. Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2°C and higher degrees of global warming. Environmental Research 186: 109447, doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447. Oct 23, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/oct/a10.php
“In light of the above findings, clearly, cold (not hot!) temperatures are what policy makers should be most concerned about when attempting to protect the public from temperature-related mortality events.”
Impacts of CO2 on Two Grapevine Cultivars
Wohlfahrt, Y., Tittmann, S., Schmidt, D., Rauhut, D., Honermeier, B. and Stoll, M. 2020. The effect of elevated CO2 on berry development and bunch structure of Vitis cinifera L. cvs. Riesling and Cabernet Sauvignon. Applied Sciences 10: 2486, doi: 10.3390/app10072486. Oct 21, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/oct/a9.php
“In summing up their findings, the scientists thus conclude their work “provides evidence that elevated CO2 did alter some bunch and berry parameters without causing any negative effects on fruit quality during berry development and structure of bunches.” All in all, therefore, it appears the alarmists will just have to accept the fact that rising CO2 improves the growth of these two grapevine cultivars without impacting their quality. And that sounds like a very favorable outcome!”
A CO2-induced Amelioration of Temperature Stress on Potato Yields
Yubi, Y., Jun, L., Haiyang, N. and Xiuyun, Z. 2020. Combined impact of elevated CO2 concentration and climatic warming on potato yield and quality in semi-arid regions. Potato Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11540-020-09466-w. Oct 19, 2020
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/oct/a8.php
“With respect to potato yield, which is a key parameter for food security, Yubi et al. report ‘the yield in the elevated temperature treatment was low because potato crops prefer cool temperatures’ and ‘warming restricts tuber growth.’ However, they add that increasing the CO2 concentration ameliorated this stress by improving net photosynthesis and plant water use efficiency, which combination of factors ‘resulted in greater dry matter accumulation [and] promotes the increase of economic yields [for potato growers].’ Indeed, as shown in Figure 1, yields in the combined elevated temperature and elevated CO2 treatment were 13% greater than the control treatment and a whopping 60% greater than the elevated temperature treatment.”
Model Issues
What Will Northwest Weather and Climate Be Like in 2050?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 18, 2020
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/what-will-northwest-weather-and-climate.html
[SEPP Comment: Using 50 years of data to forecast (predict) to 2050 and 2100.]
Is Mauna Loa Really The Best Location To Measure ‘Global’ CO2 Levels?
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 19, 2020
How The US Temperature Record Is Being Altered (Part 2)
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 20, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/10/how-the-us-temperature-record-is-being-altered/
New Video : How The US Temperature Record Is Being Altered (Part 3)
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 20, 2020
Newport, Arkansas Has Had A Cooling Trend Since 1891
By Kirye, Tony Heller’s Blog, Oct 13, 2020
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/10/newport-arkansas-has-had-a-cooling-trend-since-1891/
No warming in the UK?
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, Oct 20, 2020
“So it would be fair to say that there has been no warming at all in the Central England Temperature Record for 30 years.”
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
How we measure background CO2 levels on Mauna Loa.
By Pieter Tans and Kirk Thoning, NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, updated September 2020
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/about/co2_measurements.html
Changing Climate
If only it had warmed
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 21, 2020
Link to paper included in last week’s TWTW: Past Extinctions of Homo Species Coincided with Increased Vulnerability to Climatic Change
By Pasquale Raia, et al. One Earth, Oct 15, 2020
https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(20)30476-0?utm_source=EA
“But his actual autopsy shows that he died from… what’s this? Global hypothermia? Yes. Natural cooling did it. Exactly unlike today.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Ten polar bears – six adults and four cubs – besiege a stalled rubbish truck in Russian Arctic
By Siberian Times reporter, The Siberian Times, Oct 20, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
It’s awfully cold in East Antarctica
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 21, 2020
Melting Alpine glaciers yield archaeologic troves, but clock ticking
By Nina Larson, Sion, Switzerland (AFP) Oct 16, 2020
Norway Glaciers Show Surprisingly Small Retreat During 2020…”Nigardsbreen Glacier Actually Grew”
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 18, 2020
Acidic Waters
Researchers publish rebuttal of prior study on ocean acidification effects on the behavior of coral reef fishes
By James Cook University, Oct 22 2020
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-publish-rebuttal-prior-ocean-acidification.html
Methods matter in repeating ocean acidification studies
By Philip L. Munday, et al. Nature, Oct 21, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2803-x
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
World wheat crop tips record: AMIS
By Staff, Grain Central, Oct 9, 2020
Sorry, Google News, Climate Change Is Helping End World Hunger
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 21, 2020
Ross Clark: Why is the UK copying the EU’s failed agricultural policy?
Bly Ross Clark, The Speculator, Vai GWPF, Oct 23, 2020
Lowering Standards
UK Weather To Become More Extreme- Met Office
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 17, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Tropical cyclones moving faster in recent decades: study
Press Release by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Phys.org, Oct 19, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-tropical-cyclones-faster-decades.html
Link to paper: An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes
By Sung-Hun Kim, et al. Environmental Research Letters, Sep 2, 2020
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f
From the abstract: “These values correspond to a change of 5.9% and −5.6% during the analysis period for the mean TCTS and steering flow, respectively.”
Whatever it is, it’s climate change
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 21, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Looking for the distinct human fingerprint – in the water?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
De Telegraaf Misled By UN Disaster Report Researcher
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2020
“Van Loenhout should withdraw his false statement without delay, and admit that the UN report is fatally flawed.”
[SEPP Comment: Further examination of the deficient work promoted by the UN as “science.”]
A staggering rise in dishonesty
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 21, 2020
“It’s revealing that the report itself refers to ‘events’ in the earlier period and ‘disasters’ in the latter. Because it’s not science, it’s propaganda in the worst sense of that word.”
See link immediately above
It’s Official: Solar Is the Cheapest Electricity in History
By Caroline Delbert, Popular Mechanics, Oct 22, 2020
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a34372005/solar-cheapest-energy-ever/
“The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the cost per megawatt to build solar plants is below fossil fuels worldwide for the first time.”
[SEPP Comment: How much do those megawatts cost at midnight?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
‘Death sentence on nature’: MEPs accused of turning European agricultural policy into ‘extinction machine’
‘There are no reasons to spend a third of the EU budget on industrial agriculture which drives biodiversity loss and worsens the climate crisis,’ says critic
By Jane Dalton, Independent, Oct 22, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
The Climate Cult’s Brat Brigade
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Oct 20, 2020
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2020/10/the-climate-cults-brat-brigade/
Creepy Climate Conversations
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Oct 21 2020
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2020/10/21/creepy-climate-conversations/
Expanding the Orthodoxy
GE announces plan to be carbon-neutral by 2030
By Staff Power Engineering, Oct 19, 2020
https://www.power-eng.com/2020/10/19/ge-announces-plan-to-be-carbon-neutral-by-2030/#gref
Green Jobs
‘Green Recovery’ flop: Another UK wind farm deal collapses
By Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, Oct 22, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/green-recovery-flops-as-another-wind-farm-deal-collapses/
The Political Games Continue
The Biden-Harris Ticket Thinks Renewable Energy Is Carbon-Free
By Staff, Institute for Energy Research, Oct 19, 2020
Irish President Calls For Socialism To Fight Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2020
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Irish farmers revolt: Carbon Tax rises a ‘vicious attack on rural Ireland’
By Staff, The Independent, Via GWPF, Oct 20, 2020
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Comments to EPA’s Proposed Aircraft GHG Rule Show Industry Support, Activist Opposition
By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Oct 23, 2020
Energy Dept. exempts quick dishwashers from existing efficiency standards
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 23, 2020
Energy Issues – Non-US
Malthusianism Reconsidered: Desrochers on Smil
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 22, 2020
“‘… Professor Smil’s breadth and depth of technical knowledge on anything remotely related to energy is truly astonishing. Idiosyncratic, he is a self-described ‘old-fashioned scientist’ who prefers ‘hard engineering realities’ to ‘interminably vacuous and poorly informed policy ‘debates.’’
Sorry Boris, But You Still Need Gas!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2020
Dubai builds first coal power plant despite pledging lowest carbon footprint in the world by 2050
In the oil-rich nation of the United Arab Emirates, an unusual sight is rising in Dubai
Bly Staff AP, Via Independent, Oct 22, 2020
Energy Issues — US
California’s energy nightmare is coming to Virginia
By Bonner Cohen, CFACT, Oct 18, 2020
Washington’s Control of Energy
FERC Carbon Pricing Policy Statement
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Oct 20, 2020
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
New Dawn Fades – Floating LNG Prospects Fizzle As Operational Issues Emerge
Bly Richard Platt, RBN Energy, Oct 22, 2020
https://rbnenergy.com/new-dawn-fades-floating-lng-prospects-fizzle-as-operational-issues-emerge
Nuclear Energy and Fears
US firm ‘aims to build a nuclear power plant’ in South Africa
What pandemic? An American investment group is looking to pump billions into South Africa, with one eye on a new nuclear power plant for Mzansi.
By Tom Head, The South African, Oct 18, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: With a photo of emissions from an unidentified cooling tower blackening the skies. Could it be a cooling tower for a nuclear plant?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Environmental Rape Of Africa: Hamburg Power Plants Aim To Deforest Namibia For Power Plant Fuel!
By P Gosselin, No Trick Zone, Oct 20, 2020
Germany’s biogas plants face bankruptcy
Video, DW, Oct 19, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-biogas-plants-face-bankruptcy/av-55321525
[SEPP Comment: We need to use the technology no matter how expensive it is?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Wisdom of hydrogen called into question
By Staff. Transport Xtra, Via GWPF, Oct 22, 2020
https://www.thegwpf.com/wisdom-of-hydrogen-called-into-question/
“In other words, we are going to take very expensive electricity from offshore windfarms, use it to make hydrogen, which we will burn to make electricity again.”
How green hydrogen can become cheap enough to compete with fossil fuels
By Charles Rotter, News Release form University of South Wales, Via WUWT, Oct 17, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Crunching numbers is not the same as proof of concept! Note, AAAS EurekAlert! is changing policy and some links to it may not work.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Musk Drives Ahead
By Donn Dears, Oct 20, 2020
https://ddears.com/2020/10/20/musk-drives-ahead/
Germany on course for climate neutral flying
By Staff Writers, Berlin, Germany (SPX), Oct 15, 2020
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Germany_on_course_for_climate_neutral_flying_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Return of hot-air balloons using wood for fuel?]
Tesla to export China-made Model 3 vehicles to Europe
By Staff, Reuters, Oct 19, 2020
Carbon Schemes
Science is ready to save us, maybe
Guest Post by Ivor Williams, WUWT, Oct 19, 2020
AEP’s Carbon Capture Fantasy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2020
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/10/20/aeps-carbon-capture-fantasy/
California Dreaming
Restoring California’s forests to reduce wildfire risks will take time, billions of dollars and a broad commitment
By Roger Bales, University of California, Merced and Martha Conklin, University of California, Merced, WUWT, Oct 18, 2020
[SEPP Comment: The authors are professors of engineering.]
Why California’s Natural Gas Appliance Bans Are Bad Economic and Environmental Policy
By Nicolas Loris, the Daily Signal, Oct 8, 2020
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
CNN: Climate Change is Driving Fatal Shark Attacks
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 20, 2020
Looking for a better neighborhood?
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 21, 2020
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2020/10/21/looking-for-a-better-neighbourhood/
[SEPP Comment: Ten percent larger, more gravity, and 5º C (9º F) hotter?]
No, Climate Change Is Not Turning the Amazon into a Savannah
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 18, 2020
ARTICLES
# 1 Utilities Wage Battle Over Charging Stations
By Rebecca Elliott, WSJ, Oct 19, 2020
http://ereader.wsj.net/?editionStart=The+Wall+Street+Journal
TWTW Summary: The reporter writes:
“Electric vehicles are widely seen as the automobile industry’s future, but a battle is unfolding in states across America over who should control the charging stations that could gradually replace fuel pumps.
“From Exelon Corp. to Southern California Edison, utilities have sought regulatory approval to invest millions of dollars in upgrading their infrastructure to prepare for charging and, in some cases, to own and operate chargers.
“The proposals are sparking concerns from consumer advocates about higher electric rates and oil companies about subsidizing rivals. They are also drawing opposition from startups that say the successors to gas stations should be open to private competition, not controlled by monopoly utilities.
“That debate is playing out in regulatory commissions throughout the U.S. as states and utilities promote wider adoption of electric vehicles. At stake are charging infrastructure investments expected to total more than $13 billion over the next five years, according to energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. That would cover roughly 3.2 million charging outlets.
“Calvin Butler Jr., who leads Exelon’s utilities business, said many states have grown more open to the idea of utilities becoming bigger players in charging as electric vehicles have struggled to take off in the U.S., where they make up only around 2% of new car sales. ‘When the utilities are engaged, there’s quicker adoption because the infrastructure is there,’ he said.
“Major auto makers including General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. are accelerating production of electric vehicles, and a number of states have set ambitious EV goals—most recently California, which aims to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. But a patchy charging-station network remains a huge impediment to mass EV adoption.
“Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has called for building more than 500,000 new public charging outlets in a decade as part of his plan to combat climate change. But exactly how that would happen is unclear. The U.S. has fewer than 100,000 public outlets, according to the Energy Department. President Trump, who has weakened federal tailpipe emissions targets, hasn’t put forward an electric-vehicle charging plan, though he backed a 2019 transportation bill that would have provided $1 billion in grants to build alternative fueling infrastructure, including for electric vehicles.
“Charging access varies widely by state, as does utility involvement, which can range from providing rebates on home chargers to preparing sites for public charging—and even owning and operating the equipment needed to juice up electric vehicles.
“As of September, regulators in 24 states had signed off on roughly $2.6 billion of utility investment in transportation electrification, according to Atlas Public Policy, a Washington, D.C., policy firm. More than half of that spending was authorized in California, where electric vehicle adoption is highest.”
The article then goes into political history over the past 20 years but ignores cost except saying Southern California Edison claims its program will:
“…increase the average residential customer’s bill by around 50 cents a month.”
The only real story of the week continues to be the record low levels of arctic sea ice for this date, 6 weeks after the minimum.
and btw, I looked at the Soviet records too, so this is not just for the 41 years of satellite record, but provably back to 1933.
Your disk has so many fissures, it’s better to threw it away as what it is, garbage.
Hi Griffo
“According to our colleague Jamie Morrison at the University of Washington, this summer’s pronounced retreat of ice north of the Laptev-Kara-Barents-Seas region is consistent with the effects of the positive winter AO. Morison notes that the winter AO has been generally positive over the past 30 years, particularly so over the last 10 years. He speculates that the atmospheric circulation pattern associated with the AO may also favor a greater influence of Atlantic water heat on the sea ice cover through weakening the cold halocline layer—the cold, but low density water at the ocean surface.”
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
What author and colleague Jamie Morrison are suggesting is that Arctic ice goes up and down, but dare not say it loud and openly, that it is NOT the AGW’s CO2.
Griffo, it is natural quasi-periodic oscillation, synchronised with periodicity of the N. Hemisphere’s temperature.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/ArcticIce.htm
griff
Can you comment on rumours of a defective satellite sensor and the Arctic sea ice data?
griff
The only real story of the week continues to be the record low levels of arctic sea ice
The earth has two poles, not only one.
There’s a story at the other end too.
Two ends, two very different stories.
To ask why? would be a sign of progress.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/antarctic-daily-image-update/
Not quite so dramatic in the DMI data
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/SICE_curve_extent_LA_EN_20201025.png
I guess getting the Danes to play ball by doctoring sea ice data is as frustrating as trying to get them to join the fight to stop Nord Stream 2. And all the other anglo saxon agendas.
yes well – the DMI data is widely regarded as not accurate… it always lags behind all the other measurements (and there is now a lot more detailed data available from the likes of Polarstern etc).
DMI is the denier dataset of choic!
Why do you keep making these comments about sea ice, griff? The Arctic was supposed to be ice free by 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2018. If that had happened, there wouldn’t be any sea ice to talk about.
https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions
I first saw this quote in a book on Applied Groundwater Modeling (Anderson and Woesnner, 1992). Each chapter is headed with a wise quote. In addition to the Sherlock Holmes, relevant ones to this subject are:
“The fascinating impressiveness of rigorous mathematical analysis, with its atmosphere of precision and elegance, should not blind us to the defects of the premises that condition the whole process” (TC Chamberlain, 1899)
and – on a par with Holmes:
“There is something fascinating about Science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact” (Mark Twain, Life on the Mississippi)
NOAA I lost all faith in them when they started saying one year was warmer than another based on 1/100 C difference. That’s with margin of error of + or – 5/100 C. If that wasn’t absurd enough they now compare months!
The best transport is no transport.
The best electricity is no electricity.
This is the real green agenda.
They know that non-fossil alternatives are inadequate and it’s a feature not a bug.
That’s also why nuclear also will be shut out since it is the one alternative to fossil energy that would actually work as France has shown for more than half a century.
Low energy feudalism with peasants (us) locked to the land is where our elites are herding us.
This is just paranoid nonsense… there are many European nations with very high renewable rates and none is heading in this direction.
Such as ?
The only state that’s going all in on solar and wind is CA. If this is the standard, we can bend down and kiss our rears goodby! Lol. Rolling black outs will be the standard, while not reducing CO2 one iota!
I’m sorry to hear of the passing of James Randi. I enjoyed reading his books, including “Flim-Flam”.