When will Temperatures start to fall? Part1

Guest post by Tony Brown

“If Europeans truly mobilize around the delivery of the 2050 goal, every business decision, lifestyle choice, political swing, every hallmark of European culture — from annual ski trips, to Champions League Football matches, to French cheese — will need to be tested against its contribution to climate change.” European Commission ‘Green Deal’ March 2020

This is an article with a simple proposition.  Science tells us that rapidly rising Co2 in turn causes rising temperatures, which has become a very serious problem for humanity.

The three questions I ask, in the expectation that the answer can be provided from main stream published science is;

“Assuming we reach zero carbon emissions by 2030-Extinction Rebellion (XR) requirement,  or 2050 -the aim of most governments under the Paris Accord- 1) how long would it take for Co2 levels to naturally fall below the’ safe upper limits’ of 350ppm espoused by such as James Hansen; 2) for it to fall further to 280ppm -the previous pre industrial level -AND 3) when will temperatures start to fall in turn, to achieve pre industrial levels, said to be 1 to 2 degrees Centigrade below present, according to the IPCC.”

There are all sorts of caveats of course, with methane, water vapour, clouds, feedbacks, ocean response, natural variations etc but having scoured various ‘official’ web sites I can find no definitive estimate. An examination of the Extinction Rebellion web site demonstrates they are anarchists, rather than a serious green organisation. A couple of more reasoned attempts to track the consequences of zero carbon emissions are given in Note 3 below the graphic-Figure 1 together with a variety of other useful background information.

Whether the reader personally believes excess Co2 to be a problem is not a matter this article is concerned with.  Let’s take science at face value –our respective Governments  have overwhelmingly agreed that humanity has added some 140ppm of Co2 to the pre industrial 280ppm and that, as a result, temperatures have risen substantially and are at a dangerous level and causing extremes of weather.

As a result of this scientific advice, Governments around the world intend to take dramatic measures to curb both Co2 levels and thereby limit temperature increases. The answer to my question must be in the public domain in a readily understandable form, in order for politicians-rarely versed in science- to feel it necessary to make the far reaching changes proposed. In this connection the EU’s position in Note 2 under the graphic will reward a read, as it will likely reflect the position of your own Government, or in the case of the USA-the opposition parties. 

General comments on the subject are of course welcome, but If you wish to make a specific prediction of the Co2 reduction time and/or temperature reduction  please quote evidence  in the form of an equation, or a reference, or link to a science paper.

So here are the simple questions again. Assuming we reach zero carbon emissions by 2030-Extinction Rebellion (XR) requirement,  or 2050 -the aim of most governments under the Paris Accord- 1) how long would it take for Co2 levels to naturally fall below the’ safe upper limits’ of 350ppm espoused by such as James Hansen; 2) for it to fall further to 280ppm -the previous pre industrial level -AND 3) when will temperatures start to fall in turn, to achieve pre industrial levels said to be 1 to 2 degrees Centigrade below present, according to the IPCC.

Note 1; Figure 1 below assumes a 430ppm concentration by 2030 or 450 ppm by 2050 based on Co2 levels  continuing to rise from 2020 until towards the chosen date, when they would taper off, before becoming net zero. Consequently any estimated reductions need to start from that point. Figure 1 is left blank waiting for data from replies to be inserted;

Figure 1; Co2 and temperature-timescales and trajectory

Background information

Some 10 or 12 years ago, when I first started writing climate related articles, I emailed around a dozen leading climate scientists to ask that if  emissions stopped dead, how long would it take temperatures to drop back towards the desired pre industrial levels?. That is to say around a couple of degrees centigrade. (This doesn’t take into account that the temperature by 2030 or 2050 should be higher than now as Co2 continues to increase, plus there is the ‘heat in the pipeline’)

Most responded. Some had never done the calculations, others didn’t feel there was sufficient data for accurate projections. One said we should start to see a slight reduction in temperatures in around 400 years, but the full effect would not come about for possibly thousands.

Until Covid 19 took over public debate, climate was a very hot topic and will do so again as the immediate effects of the pandemic recede into the rear view mirror.

Consequently it is relevant to ask the question again in the light of much more research and knowledge accumulated over the last decade or so. This has provided data that has persuaded governments to adopt stiff targets in such International agreements as the Paris Accord and encouraged the rise of activists like Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion, whereby the ‘climate crisis’ is being forcibly placed into the centre of the public domain.

In a future article, once the data is in, I hope to explore the measures needed to achieve the stated objectives and surmise whether the public would be more or less willing to accept the sacrifices and lifestyle changes needed, bearing in mind the drastic changes in everyone’s lives over the past few months.

 In respect of climate mitigation ambitions, readers will find it worth spending a few minutes exploring the EU position under Note 2)   

Note 2 ; This is a small segment from the Politico web site about EU plans, .which will mirror the views of many other signatories to Paris. The title is self-explanatory

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-climate-goal-revolution-net-zero-emissions/

“Cutting the Continent’s emissions to “net zero” — meaning Europe would sequester at least as much greenhouse gases as it produces — by 2050 will require a radical overhaul of nearly every aspect of the modern economy. Dramatic cuts in carbon will wipe out entire industries, transform others and force people to change the way they eat, work, live and travel”

“If Europeans truly mobilize around the delivery of the 2050 goal, every business decision, lifestyle choice, political swing, every hallmark of European culture — from annual ski trips, to Champions League Football matches, to French cheese — will need to be tested against its contribution to climate change.

The European Climate Law, proposed by the Commission in March, would submit every EU law, past and future, to a test of its compatibility with climate neutrality — a “tectonic shift,” according to E3G, a think tank that advocates for emission cuts.”

Note 3 A variety of papers, sensationalist and more rational, sketch out a wide variety of scenarios making it difficult to separate reality from fantasy. A couple of more reasoned attempts to track the consequences of zero carbon emissions are given below. ‘The Conversation’ has a recent editorial policy of not publishing ‘denialist’ climate comments or articles.

Summary from ‘The Conversation.’

Temperatures will stabilise at a higher temperature with some 0.6C of heat in the pipeline with, for the foreseeable future an irrevocable rise of temperature of up to 4C.

There is no real road map of temperatures coming down, and elevated levels of Co2 will remain for many hundreds of years. The article is from 2017.

https://theconversation.com/if-we-stopped-emitting-greenhouse-gases-right-now-would-we-stop-climate-change-78882

From Nature, who reckon on a temperature rise for hundreds of years whilst Co2 will stay at an elevated level for thousands.

https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/what-happens-after-global-warming-25887608/

The Future?

The 2020 Covid economy, whereby Co2 emissions have continued to rise but more slowly than recently, provides some clarity as to the fundamental changes needed from industry and the public to actually achieve net zero. This effectively means ‘more of the same’ restrictions as during the pandemic. Much less air travel, fewer personal means of transport and more reliance on public transport, much less consumption, fundamental changes to industry, supplemented by measures on addressing additional sectors of the economy year on year, to permanently ratchet up the effect.

This will likely include less meat eating, less imported foods and drink, fewer electrical items including mobile phones and servers, the phasing out of gas central heating, a substantial reduction in home temperatures with thermostats set to 19degrees C ((66 degrees F) no wood or coal burning devices, phasing out of most conventional power sources, a much greater reliance on renewable energy and likely a carbon allowance and alterations to  tax structures to encourage a change in behaviour. This is expected by governments to result in a gentler, slower, less polluted and more sustainable way of life, centred more round the local community.

Tony Brown August 2020

254 thoughts on “When will Temperatures start to fall? Part1

  1. “When will temperatures start to fall?”

    Hopefully never. I don’t want to live in an ice age.

    • I’m with David.

      However, according to the scientific theory of CO2 “blocking” infrared light from radiating out to space and re-emitting infrared back to the earth, as CO2 falls from, say 500 ppm to 499 ppm, it should, theoretically, start cooling immediately and continue to do so as CO2 concentration declines. If the theory is correct or accurate. That also means that as it decreases by 100%, say 560 ppm to 280 ppm, global temperature should fall by at least 1° C. Which is not much. Which makes you wonder what all the weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth is about.

      • Sorry, that should be “as it decreases by 50%, say 560 ppm to 280 ppm…”

        The theory is that as it increases by 100% (doubling) from 280 to 560 ppm, it will increase warming by 1° C or so. The reverse should also be true when it decreases by 50% from 560 to 280 ppm.

      • Oooopsie, I doubt that the loonies, the climate liars and that great oracle Mosher, would like it to drop back down by their “simpleton physics” number of 4 – 6 degrees F or C. They gonna take credit for that?

        We could always bring back the guillotine, which is, as I believe, why it became popular in the first place ….. metaphorically speaking, of course.

    • I think this would be an ice age 🙂

      “how long would it take temperatures to drop back towards the desired pre industrial levels? That is to say around a couple of degrees centigrade.”

      I’m sure he meant “by”…

  2. Some people might find a discussion starting with the premise that “the Moon is made of green cheese” intellectually stimulating. Personally, I do not have the time for such foolishness, any more than I have the time for one starting with the idiocy written at the beginning of this piece.

      • +++
        Temperatures will fall between now and the middle of next year due to La Nina. If solar cycle 25 is another mild one or actually weak (not just relatively weak compared to the Modern Maximum) then it will probably fall between now and 2030 regardless of how high the partial pressure of CO2 is in the atmosphere – making the desperation to end fossil fuels even more desperate for the charlatans because con artists don’t like being caught.

    • Sometimes it’s worth the time to take your opponents’ assumptions and proposals to their logical conclusion.

      • True but I’m more interested in predictions of 2020 to 2040. Hotter, colder and by how much (or same as we are now).

        How long with rising CO2 and flat or falling temperatures would be considered a falsification of the premise that CO2 controls the climate?

        We had an 18 year period with that exact scenario and some honest scientists threw in the towel but most just tried to adjust their way out of it.

      • It’s called “Reductio ad absurdum” and is a method of proof that taking the assumptions at face value leads to an absurdity.

    • Writing Observer-

      I think you are missing the point. To you (and most of the rest of us here at WUWT) the statement that “CO2 is causing a catastrophic increase in ambient temperature” has a much validity as “the Moon is made of green cheese.” However, that is not the case for EU and the signers of the Paris agreement. They believe it is the Truth (with a capital T).

      So Tony Brown’s question is “If we all have to sacrifice and return to the 17th century, when will our global temperature stop increasing and when will it start returning to the preindustrial level?”

      In other words “Is the worlds sacrifice going to be worth it?’ Tony is asking them to prove that it is worth it.

      • Old engineer

        Thank you. We can assert our position as much as we like but those in control are the ones that will promote the science as they see it, egged on by some who have become fanatical. The US has been protected from this to some extent ever since Kyoto but in particular by refuting Paris.

        A change of President, should it happen, will completely upend the current US position overnight

        So ‘prove it’ is one argument, but I am inclined to think that ‘is the worlds sacrifice going to be worth it’ is a more powerful one we need to employ, as well as chipping away at the science.

        We don’t seem to have made any dent in co2 after the severe worldwide
        Lockdown but as you saw on my mauna loa link there is an excuse for this which will presumably be employed ever more frequently as time goes on .

        I don’t think ordinary people as yet realise the extent of the lifestyle changes demanded or if they do, they believe renewables will seamlessly take up the slack.

        We need evidence to demonstrate that we are likely to make little difference and that the sacrifices with current technology are not reasonable

        Tonyb

        • Change of President unfortunately won’t matter as governor s and local gov are moving ahead with Green scams regardless of president

      • Keep in mind that this is the same mindset of the people who say a full lockdown, etc. is “worth it” regardless of the cost “if it saves just one life”

        So to them, the answer to “is it worth it” is ALWAYS “Yes”.

      • They believe “Truth over Facts” as Joe said. No amount of empirical evidence will change their faith.

  3. Science tells us that rapidly rising Co2 in turn causes rising temperatures, which has become a very serious problem for humanity.

    Time to sell more tiger-repelling rocks, I guess.

      • Alistair,

        Indeed, indeed. China, India, all of the OPEC nations, Russia and non-OPEC Africa have no intention of abiding by the Paris climate agreement, at least until 2030 in China’s case. Collectively, they account for about half of the world’s population. Such a farce.

        The EU, Green-New-Deal America (if realized), wacky Liberal Canada and Australia face an economic catastrophe if their proposed emissions-reduction plans are implemented. Social upheaval, depression, revolt and war will be the outcome.

        Nice future to contemplate here in sunny British Columbia. Oh well, golf beckons later today even if it does amount to a good walk spoiled.

  4. “Science tells us that rapidly rising Co2 in turn causes rising temperatures”

    I’m not sure if Science tells us that, or if activists tell us that, so I reject the initial premise. Science certainly does tell us that rising temperatures causes rising CO2, due to ocean outgassing. If CO2 in turned was the dominant force in causing further temperature rises, then earth would have a history of constant out of control temperature swings, rising temps which cause rising co2 which cause rising temps, until some other tipping point is reached, at which point falling temps would cause falling co2 with causes further falling temps, and then all over again. However, the temperature record does not look like that at all.

    • We should concentrate on something about CO2 that Science does tell us–that plant growth goes up or down depending on the concentration of atmospheric CO2.

      Consequently, the biosphere is larger with more CO2, and not surprisingly, so is foodstuff production and ancillary products like construction lumber.

      Political forces that push for a reduction in CO2 have to know this, too, so why follow advice that makes the human condition harder than it is?

      Some people just aren’t very friendly!

      • Yep, 7.5 billion people have benefited from increase CO2 in the atmosphere, as far I can tell zero have suffered. If we reverse coarse the reverse will be true. Same for nature.

  5. “….our respective Governments have overwhelmingly agreed that humanity has added some 140ppm of Co2 to the pre industrial 280ppm….” And therein lies a big problem…. assuming the CO2 rise is anthropogenic only. If we look at history atmospheric CO2 has varied without fossil fuel use by man. Just part of the scam.

  6. I can predict with absolute certainty that if we do nothing to address CO2, temperatures will eventually start to fall. Whenever this is will be same time it would be if we implemented the most draconian CO2 mitigation scheme possible.

    • “One [scientist] said we should start to see a slight reduction in temperatures in around 400 years, but the full effect would not come about for possibly thousands.” I am with co2isnotevil on this one. The scientist that said the above quote was actually quoting the skeptic position.

    • Seeing that the sun is apparently going into a prolonged minimum(2 solar cycles) it is very likely “global” temperature will at worst stagnate where it is now. It also could drop a degree C or so if it follows the historical record.

  7. “our respective Governments have overwhelmingly agreed that humanity has added some 140ppm of Co2 to the pre industrial 280ppm and that, as a result, temperatures have risen substantially and are at a dangerous level and causing extremes of weather.”

    All of which suppositions are incorrect so why bother reading further.

    • TedM,

      That mankind has added CO2 to the atmosphere is based on undeniably sound science and there’s no point in disputing this. What they have wrong is the the size of the climate effect increased CO2 concentrations are claimed to have and even if they had this right, they’re still wrong about warming being so much more dangerous than cooling.

      You would think that a kilometer thick glacier bearing down on Manhattan would be far more concerning then a slight warming concentrated mostly in polar regions and dense urban areas, especially since the increased CO2 across the planet said to cause the warming has such a large positive effect on agricultural productivity. Lets not forget that glaciers have covered most of the Northeastern US, Northern Europe and Russia for more than 80% of the last million years through about 10 major glaciation cycles and that there’s no amount of atmospheric CO2 that can stop this from occurring again.

  8. Science Scientology tells us that rapidly rising Co2 in turn causes rising temperatures, which has become a very serious problem for humanity.”

    “Let’s take science at face value –our respective Governments have overwhelmingly agreed…”
    That’s not the science, that’s the consensus among political entities. Science has nothing to do with consensus, only subjective things are decided by consensus. Objective testing of theory through observation is science at face value, anything else becomes politics, which hides the face value with masks of eminence. The models which overstate the atmospheric sensitivity to carbon and should be thrown out are the basis of the governmental “scientific consensus”.

    • Yeah, what the blazes is Co2? Is this something really new and scary? Maybe they meant C zero 2, but I don’t know what that would be.

      These fools can’t even get their opening sentence correct and then repeat it how many times I don’t know, cause I couldn’t read their garbage science past the next next time I saw them make the same mistake. Fools!

  9. The climate establishment have committed themselves to prediction of essentially endless warming from the pulse of anthropogenic CO2.
    Forever.
    And ever.
    Hallelujah.
    Hallelujah.
    That means that any cooling of climate that occurs, ever, refutes the CO2-alarmist mainstream position.
    Any cooling and it’s game over.

    • Phil:
      I am not sure that it will be game over. The climate alarmists have done so many unscrupulous things already (getting rid of warm weather records in the past, homogenizing data, raising the temperatures actually recorded, and on and on.) A steadying or falling temperature will be erased and replaced by a rising temperature record somehow.

      Just something we will have to live with as long as leftist globalist are in charge of so many countries.

  10. The 2020 Covid economy, whereby Co2 emissions have continued to rise but more slowly than recently
    Everything I’ve read and graphs I’ve seen, indicate there has been no discernable change in co2 increase. So is that still true?

    • Alan

      Here are the Mauna loa figures.

      https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

      There is no discernible change despite the fiercest lockdown on industry in history. The ‘reasons’ that there has been no change are discussed in the link.

      Quite what it takes before the apparent limited impact humans have is admitted I don’t know. I suspect it would take 5 Years of a fierce crackdown on co2 emissions with no effect before the powers that be start to admit there might be something wrong with the theory

      Tonyb

      • The “fiercest” lockdown dropped CO2 emissions by about 10%. The fiercest part only lasted a few weeks and the economy (and with it, CO2 emissions) have been picking up since then.

        Given the noise in the signal, a 10% drop for a month or so won’t be noticeable.

        • Correct. It’s sad to see so many skeptics embarrass themselves and validate the alarmists’ claim that skeptics deny sound science. There’s no reason to deny that human activity has managed, over centuries to raise CO2 concentration from 0.028% to 0.042%.

          If we generate twice as much CO2 each year than the amount accumulating, how can any coherent explanation be constructed to explain how our emissions have no effect on atmospheric CO2 concentration.

  11. I’m tired, the sun mediates our weather more than any co2. If you stay in the sun too long you can die. The world has cycles affected by the astonomical positions.
    This one world global presumptive syndicate is just another Iteration of Roman’s acting like they are GODS!

  12. If Harde be correct, temperatures should start dropping within years after CO2 stops increasing:

    Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO2 residence time in the atmosphere

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921818116304787?via%3Dihub#!

    Highlights

    • We present a carbon cycle with an uptake proportional to the CO2 concentration.

    • Temperature dependent natural emission and absorption rates are considered.

    • The average residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere is found to be 4 years.

    • Paleoclimatic CO2 variations and the actual CO2 growth rate are well reproduced.

    • Human emissions only contribute 15% to the CO2 increase over the Industrial Era.

    I’m dubious about the last conclusion, but it makes little difference.

    The effect of CO2 is negligible in any case. Real ECS is probably about the same as its value without the positive feedbacks assumed in the worse than worthless GIGO models. Feedbacks on the actual Earth rather than on Planet Gigo are more likely net negative than positive, so ECS could well be below 1.0 degree C.

    Natural variability swamps whatever enhanced GHE CO2 might contribute. Sinks expand to soak up the extra plantfood, as shown by the greening of our planet thanks to increased CO2, from whatever source.

      • Pretty funny that they say the peer review system is at fault, rather than the CACA hypothesis.

        But predictable.

    • “If Harde be correct, temperatures should start dropping within years after CO2 stops increasing”
      I think Harde is saying the CO2 will start to decrease after the temperature does. His work with Salby and Humlum concludes that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is a function( probably an integral function) of temperature. His findings align with Berry’s (https://edberry.com/blog/climate/climate-physics/preprint3/). Note that their position is that human emissions do not effect the CO2 content of the atmosphere very much so their response to Mr. Brown’s question about the time for the temperature to drop after ending emissions is meaningless. It is like asking how long after humans stop having pets will the global temperature go down. The former variable has no causal relation to the latter.

      • My opinion is that, while CO2 increases as a result of warmth rather than causing it, there might be a (difficult to detect) minor positive feedback effect from the additional plant food in the air.

        Water vapor not only covers about the same bands as CO2, but outnumbers it by two orders of magnitude in the air, ranging from about 2000 to 40,000 ppm, with a global average around 25,000, vs 400 for CO2. Thus, horrors of horrors!, GHG concentration has grown over the past 160 years from about 25,300 to 25,400 ppm.

        Maybe there were only 24,000 ppm of H2O in the air on average 160 years ago. Macht Nichts.

        • The range of water vapor concentration is several magnitudes larger than the tiny enhancement of atmospheric CO2.

          Even if they had the actual science correct about atmospheric CO2, (and they don’t)

          ….they still couldn’t possibly measure any actual effect….. And they haven’t !

        • John sorry to step into your thread, but it is a good opportunity to explain some points of confusion to new WUWT readers…
          Top of Troposphere, only 12Km up, water has rained and snowed out, temperature is -55, CO2 is still 400 ppm but water is only 10ppm at that altitude.

          So CO2 controls how much heat radiates to outer space at that altitude. But more CO2 radiates more heat to outer space. Meanwhile down at ocean surface, 400 ppm of CO2 compared to 20,000 ppm of water vapor has very little effect.
          Modtran does a pretty good job of integrating this water vapor/CO2 effect from ground level on up.
          However, Modtran does not do a very good job of calculating the additional cloud cover that warmer ocean surfaces generate, and its effect on reflecting incoming sunlight.
          And cloud cover is what really controls the Earth’s temperature. An increase of surface temperature from 15 to 16 C increases saturation water content by 7%. This moisture makes more low level clouds that reflect incoming sunlight (a couple of days later a few hundred Km away), restoring the overall heat balance.
          Ramanathan in his “Cloud Radiative Forcing and Climate” paper of 1988 pointed out the strength of this cloud albedo effect. But modern Climate scientists strongly believe in the CO2 effect despite it’s overprediction of temperature change per CO2 doubling.

  13. 1) how long would it take for Co2 levels to naturally fall…

    If emissions halted overnight, baked in temperature rise would continue for another few decades (until it reached a new equilibrium) and atmospheric CO2 concentration would take maybe a hundred years to return to 350ppm. In a few thousand years CO2 has dropped back to 280 and the temperature has dropped back to the pre-industrial average. Answer in human terms = forever and emissions are not halting overnight.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/climate.2008.122

    Think geo-engineering is a bad idea, that train has left the station.

    • Off by orders of magnitude, as usual.

      The perpetrator of this antiscientific lunacy is a freelance science writer based in Pakistan in 2008.

      Please post a real scientific paper next time.

      • Alarmists declare expertise based on how well they agree with the premise.
        Since Loydo agrees with the article, that proves the article is correct and authoritative.

      • “Off by orders of magnitude”

        I think you might still be confusing the residence time for a single molecule with the residence of the total pulse. A single CO2 molecule is only in the air for an average of a few years but it will take millenia for the atmospheric concentration to fall back from 450ppm to 300ppm.

        From: Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 110

        1. Introduction
        [2] The idea that anthropogenic CO2 release may affect
        the climate of the earth for hundreds of thousands of years
        has not reached general public awareness. Goodstein [2004]
        reports that fossil fuel CO2 will disappear after a millennium.
        This misconception is widespread in scientific and public
        discussion.

        “17– 33% of the fossil fuel carbon will still reside in the atmosphere 1 kyr from now, decreasing to 10– 15% at 10 kyr, and 7% at 100 kyr. The mean lifetime of fossil fuel CO2 is about 30– 35 kyr.”

        https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/43a5/acdfed668b96d760f4118c2ceb351e56a283.pdf

        • Loydo: Ice-core data from the Vostok and Law domes show that changes in temperature always PRECEDE changes in CO2, and have done so for hundreds of thousands of years and dozens of glaciation cycles.

          Why do you still believe temperatures are a function of CO2, and not the other way round?

          • Why don’t you think it works both ways? Temperatures does strongly drive CO2, but also CO2 does drive temperature, only more weakly, but drive it it does.

          • Loydo: We’re making progress! So you accept that CO2 is NOT the control knob of the climate?

            Positive feedback always leads to runaway. If CO2 drives temperature, why has there never been a thermal runaway, even during epochs of higher CO2 and temperature?

          • “but also CO2 does drive temperature”

            You have absolutely ZERO evidence of that..

            it is a NON-fact, based on a pseudo-physics fantasy.

          • “So you accept that CO2 is NOT the control knob of the climate?”
            Nobody says its THE ONLY player, but a player it is.

            There are negative feedbacks that prevent thermal runaway, Stefan-Boltzmann Law for example. The runaways are there, it just that they have a floor and a ceiling imposed and so they stop running away. The oscillations of glaciation/interstadial in the ice-core data triggered by the Milankovitch cycles for example; positive runaway followed by negative.

            Whether you think CO2 has much of an effect on the climate or not, one thing is certain it is not going away quickly.

          • Loydo: Kindly give an example of a physical system with positive feedback which does NOT lead to runaway.

            Please cite your evidence for the influence of CO2 on atmospheric temperature rather than vice versa.

            CO2 levels remain high during cooling periods, only declining after 800-1000 years.

          • “but a player it is.”

            Just like Loy when queuing for brains..

            Left on the bench !

            Still no evidence that atmospheric CO2 causes warming…

            Just mindless protests.! Poor Loy

        • ”confusing the residence time for a single molecule with the residence of the total pulse. A single CO2 molecule is only in the air for an average of a few years but it will take millenia for the atmospheric concentration to fall back from 450ppm to 300ppm.”

          More nonsense/gospel from the usual suspects. The alleged difference is a major defense of the IPCC industry. Under scrutiny, however, it collapses – laughably.

          https://youtu.be/b1cGqL9y548?t=64m50s

        • Loydo is right to point out that residence time is not relevant to the change in concentration. There are vast seasonal fluxes (all-natural sources and offsetting sinks), far larger than the magnitude of our emissions. As a result, CO2 molecules emitted by fossil fuel burning (as well as from natural sources) are likely to sequestered again within a few years by natural sinks, without changing the CO2 concentration.

          It is the e-folding rate that determines the asymptotic approach toward “equilibrium”. I put that in scare quotes because the ocean-atmosphere is always far from equilibrium, and the driving forces are perpetually changing so that the hypothetical equilibrium state is also constantly changing. Thus the e-folding rate must be varying over time as a function of temperature and other factors.

          The e-folding rate is similar to a half-life only it is not 1/2 but 1/2.718 (base of the natural logarithm, e), and it is not the absolute quantity being reduced by 1/e but the excess amount. In one e-folding period, the delta between actual and equilibrium would be reduced by 1/e or about 37%.

          The question is, what is the driving force that would drive CO2 concentration lower? It’s the excess partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere vs the ocean. In the absence of human-generated emissions, atmospheric CO2 should decrease toward that hypothetical equilibrium point where the partial pressures are equal. It will not decline linearly, but at an ever-diminishing rate because of the ever-diminishing driving force. (Think of the flow of water from a hole in the bottom of a tank—when full, the flow is fast, but nearing empty the flow slows to a drip).

          If the current temperature corresponds to a CO2 concentration greater than 350ppm, say 380ppm (purely for the sake of argument, not based on any calculation), then we would never return to 350ppm, everything else remaining unchanged. We would only return to the equilibrium concentration.

          Why should we want to return to the pre-industrial 280ppm, a level implying a colder average temperature and substantially lower agricultural productivity?

          In short, while Loydo is right that under current conditions, it could take a long time to get back to 350ppm, who cares? Loydo isn’t thinking this through. He acknowledged the correct position that CO2 is driven primary by temperature and also produces a marginal feedback of additional warming as CO2 rises, or a marginal feedback of additional cooling as CO2 concentration falls. The only way someone can make that statement is by acknowledging that temperature can change independently of CO2.

          CO2 concentration could fall back to 350ppm relatively quickly if the natural forces that have been slowly cooling the planet over the past several millennia suddenly tip us into a new little ice age that greatly increases the driving force by cooling the oceans.

          In a (naturally) cooling world, it’s entirely feasible that temperatures and atmospheric CO2 would drop despite increasing anthropogenic emissions.

          • “who cares?”

            That depends on the ECS doesn’t it, if its low then its a nothing burger. If it is 3 or 3+ then the next thousand generations are going to care a lot and it is trite and delusional to just say they’ll be happier with abruptly warmer than the Holocene. Good luck to the next thousand generations with that.

          • How do you come up with the fantasy JUNK comments of yours , Loy

            Some sort of wacky green pill ?

            The next many generations will NEED those raised atmospheric CO2 levels to produce the food required to feed themselves.

            Or a whole heap of CO2 enhanced real greenhouses.. With CO2 manufactured for the purpose.

            Why don’t you even the most basic understanding of biology and where the foods food comes from ???

            (and you STILL haven’t produced any science showing that atmospheric CO2 causes warming.)

          • Loydo, my friend,
            If TCR has given us about a degree (which assumes 0% of the observed warming was natural) after about 50% of a doubling of CO2, then ECS would be about 4K and that doesn’t get us to more than a 2 degree rise in this century, which is not close to the HCO. All the magik models run far too hot with ECS of 4. Too hot even with lower ECS. Reasonable conclusion: a good portion probably most of the observed warming is not CO2 feedback, but natural variability.

            Svante Arrhenius was hoping for a 9 degree warming from fossil fuel burning to benefit Sweden. But you think it’s reasonable to consider a 2 degree rise to be a catastrophe?

            Global milding raises night-time lows without affecting daytime highs. That raises the average temperature but mostly in high latitudes.

            If your fear of a long-term 4-degree increase in average temperature resulting from higher Tmin is so concerning to you, why are you supporting unsustainable windmills and solar panels as a solution, when a natural gas to gen IV nuclear strategy would actually work and not bankrupt western civilization?

      • Don’t agree, natural sinks have theoretically increased to offset half of what we theoretically are pumping into the air. So if we shut down anthro CO2 concentration should drop dramatically at least at first. Temperature should follow very rapidly.

    • In a few thousand years, we are heading back into the next Glacial Maximum, and we will have much bigger things to worry about! Or at all, for that matter

    • I love the way loydo actually believes his made up numbers have any basis in reality.

      Since all of the CO2 we’ve emitted so far has caused, at the most, a few tenths of a degree of warming, then the “baked in” emissions couldn’t possibly cause more than a few hundredths of a degree of warming.

      As to your beliefs regarding residence time of CO2, the science differs.

  14. In November the US might find it has a President who will rejoin the Paris agreement and will in other respects buy fully into the climate change mantra.

    Whatever we might believe will be immaterial. The public will need to be persuaded that they do not want to get on board.

    Outlining the huge sacrifices that need to be made to reach zero emissions is one route, but for that to be effective part of the argument is that reducing co2 will have no short term impact on temperature and that it will take say 200 years for co2 and temperatures to reduce.

    After the trials of covid over the last six months i Doubt people will want to get on board for such small or no returns by making yet more sacrifices

    As can be seen from the first paragraph the EU is determined to press ahead as is 99% of the world. Just today extinction rebellion have been out in the UK causing disruption and this will only escalate. These people are fanatics. America may have been insulated to some extent over the last four years but there is absolutely no guarantee this will continue after November.

    If people can answer any of my three questions I would be pleased to hear the arguments

    Tonyb

    • The sane parts of the world don’t buy into CACA.

      Russia and China use the madness of Western crowds to their advantage, but don’t for a second actually fall for climate alarmist nonsense, as shown by China’s coal plant building binge. The CCP laughs all the way to the bank, selling wind turbines and solar panels to the deluded West.

      Those whom the gods would destroy, they first drive mad.

      • Yesterday Dementia Joe had to read prepared answers to softball questions from Anderson Cooper and still couldn’t get the words out.

        • There’s a reason why Pelosi is demanding that Biden cancel the debates.
          If he goes to the debates he’s gonna get creamed.
          If he cancels the debates he will look like an even bigger coward than he already does.

          • If Biden is still alive by the time the debates are held and he does attend, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a stroke or a heart attack right on stage, in front of tens of millions of Americans. His blood pressure will be through the roof, and DJT is going to chew him up and spit him out like the swamp creature he is. If there are no debates, and the memories of all the riots and arson are still fresh in the minds of most people, they are not going to reward the Democrats with any victory in the election, unless there is massive voter fraud via the mail in ballot. That should be a legitimate reason for questioning the legality of massive mail in voting.

      • Assuming the polls are even honest, how could one even make an honest assessment of what the actual odds would be from polling data if it were not already manipulated to be what is they want it to be. I suspect the polls are extremely biased to Biden and the Democrats right now. But it will probably be close and come down to a handful of states and a handful of undecided folks who determine the next POTUS. Just like last time. But it would be nice to have a resounding defeat of the Red Democrat Party and see it fracture into two parties, the other being a new Green Socialist/Marxist Party and they can harp on about their New Green Deal.

        For that matter, how do we haven know Sleepy Joe its even still alive? He could have pre-recorded all those videos in his basement last month, along with CNN and MSNBC et al. Just like Kim Jong Un might be in a coma, and he has all these pre-recorded videos for Proof of Life. His sister seems to be much more active, which would be real funny if he is in a comma after meeting Trump on several occasions. He is probably so scared shItless, and being ground between the millstone of Washington and Beijing, that he has had a nervous breakdown leading to a comma. Or was poisoned by his sister or his Generals or even China. That would be a real treat to find out right about now that Rocket Boy is no more.

        Even if Senile Joe is still alive, it is just barely alive. He looks like he is fading fast. And maybe why he doesn’t leave his basement. Really weird.

        • Smart bettors don’t rely on polls, although I’m sure that some do.

          Polls really don’t mean mcuh until after Labor Day. Unfortunately, in many mail-in voting states, like PA, ballots were sent out even before the party conventions.

        • I don’t think it’s a realistic assessment that Biden is near death, or completely incapacitated by dementia.

          It can feel good to go off about it, but frankly I think it’s best not to call him Dementia Joe (as I have also done). It sets the bar too low for him and even if it’s proven out by a sad performance, we risk offending those fighting dementia and their close relatives, generating sympathy. “Mean-spirited” loses even if it’s just highlighting an important reality.

          Biden will most likely be tipped off on several of the exact questions he’s going to be asked at least by some of the propaganda ministry. His handlers will coach him on some apparently quick-witted responses. There’s a high probability that they can make him look “better than expected”. Never forget that we’re up against the whole dem. Soc. Party, including the media. If they can get even one snappy response out of Biden, that will be played on the loop. All the better if Trump makes any kind of error. And let’s not imagine that Trump can’t say something dumb.

          So my gut says Pelosi is goading Trump into accusing Joe of being incapable of debating and really lowering the bar so that Biden can have a “shockingly strong performance, putting an end to any concerns about his mental acuity once and for all”. She wants a buzz about how Joe is afraid to debate. I’ll truly be shocked if this is not a feint. Please Trump, don’t take the bait. Instead if invited to comment on Biden’s reluctance to debate, say something like, oh I’m sure Joe’s going to debate us, he’s got so much to explain about defunding the police and banning fracking, and locking down the country again. (Those are negative, but fair statements that can be backed up with video clips). Don’t take the bait of calling him senile or repeat the nonsense about giving him a drug test.

          Focus on the riots and disorder, but do it by playing those moving videos by black Republicans. Emphasize the hopeful MAGA,A message, emphasizing the impact on minorities and women—through their words, give hope about a vaccine, remind oil and gas workers what Trump policies did for them and our energy independence. You hardly need to mention how that contrasts with Biden-Harris. They know.

          Make the media’s lies and unfair attacks obvious, not by relentlessly attacking the media, but by visibly not doing the awful things that they are accusing us of. The RNC was supposed to be the summit of white supremacy. The fact that it was the polar opposite of that is one of the reasons it was so successful.

          The base is secure. Now is the time for moderation and giving comfort to moderates.

    • Hi Tony
      You know my view the only way to reduce CO2 is to get half way through the next glaciation in say 50-70,000 years. Only cooling will lead to the control of atmospheric CO2.

      Then the Oceans will again be able to re-absorb atmospheric CO2 and Man-kind as we know it in 2020 will have disappeared.

    • reducing co2 will have no short term impact on temperature

      This has already been demonstrated by Bjorn Lomborg.
      https://www.lomborg.com/press-release-research-reveals-negligible-impact-of-paris-climate-promises.

      The effect that reductions in GHG emissions have on temperature are exclusively in reducing future increases in temperature until you reach a 50% reduction. Once our emissions are halved sinks should absorb all our emissions so atmospheric CO2 levels stop increasing. Even when atmospheric levels stabilize, most scientists believe we should still get what is known as committed warming, or “warming in the pipeline”. This warming is believed to come from the ocean lagged response to a change in radiative forcing. There’s ample discussion about it with the official position that it could be above 1°F in the short term, but around zero on a multidecadal scale.
      http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2007/11/20/the-global-warming-in-the-pipeline/
      Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2
      https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/2020/

      The promise is more warming whatever we do until over a decade after atmospheric levels decrease. For that, a reduction greater than 50 % in our emissions is required. Quite a lot of scientists believe we have to go carbon negative to reduce atmospheric levels, but that is nonsense as sinks depend on atmospheric levels, not emissions. We are told the alternative is making the planet inhabitable. Either we buy their green scheme or we die.

      If we reach zero emissions, the half-life of a carbon pulse released into the atmosphere is the subject of even more discussions. Estimates range between 30 years and centuries, with the IPCC settling at 100 years. This means they believe that from 430 ppm to [430-((430-270)/2)] 350 ppm would take 100 years. So it would take us 100 years to go back to the temperature of the mid 1980s, which was ~0.5°C lower than present.

      Then from 350 ppm to [350-((350-270)/2)] 310 ppm another 100 years, that would be the temperature of the 1950s, a further reduction of ~0.2°C.

      Then most scientists believe the last 20% of the pulse takes over a thousand years to be eliminated. It means in human terms we don’t go back to pre-industrial situation even with zero emissions.

      • “Quite a lot of scientists believe we have to go carbon negative to reduce atmospheric levels…”

        “So it would take us 100 years to go back to the temperature of the mid 1980s…”

        You don’t think there is a problem, but if you’re wrong, you’re wrong for generations and far from reducing, CO2 concentration seem to be rising exponentially. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html got your fingers crossed?

        • Loydo, what I have written is IPCC position, not mine. It is obvious that if sinks take half of what we emit, by decreasing our emissions by 50%, atmospheric levels should not raise further. Thinking otherwise is illogical.

          Our emissions are not rising exponentially, as the rate of increase is decreasing. For all we know atmospheric levels should respond to our changes in emissions, don’t you agree?

          • Y = X ^ (z); where -0.95 < z < 1.02

            exponentially … 🙂

            It comes down to the perpetual question … are they outright deceptive liars, or are they ignorant deluded useful idiots, or some combination of both?

          • “by decreasing our emissions by 50%, atmospheric levels should not raise further…”
            By your “logic”, back when our emissions were half what they are now there should have been no increase in atmos. conc., alas there was.

            I didn’t say our emissions are rising exponentially, but that atmospheric conc. is, which implies there is a growing natural source contributing to the increasing rate; outgassing from thawing permafrost for example.

            Anyway you slice it, human’s CO2 pulse – in terms of a human lifetime – is permanent. Lets hope our children and their children and their children’s children and their children’s grand and great grand children etc, and for a hundred generations after that, aren’t inconvenienced too much by this generation’s lifestyle choices.

          • By your “logic”, back when our emissions were half what they are now there should have been no increase in atmos. conc., alas there was.

            How can you be so ignorant? Natural sinks depend on atmospheric levels, so back when we emitted half, atmospheric levels were lower and closer to equilibrium, so sinks were taking less and levels increased as they should.

            I didn’t say our emissions are rising exponentially, but that atmospheric conc. is, which implies there is a growing natural source contributing to the increasing rate; outgassing from thawing permafrost for example.

            Again, how can you be so ignorant? We are emitting far more than atmospheric levels increase, so THERE ARE NO NET NATURAL SOURCES. Nature is decreasing CO2 levels, not increasing them. Read your bible, apostate. All increase is ours, all decrease is natural. If we stop emitting, levels will go down. Believing in natural sources on top of emissions is heresy. Check with your climate priest if you are having doubts, lost soul.

          • LOL, Loy really?

            An rabid opinion piece containing absolutely ZERO real science.

            A mish-mash of fake temperature series, fake correlations

            ZERO causality.. and you fall for it..

            So funny !

            You are a JOKE. !

          • Loydo, you are totally disconnected from the science of climate change. The article you cite is just an opinion piece.

            The evidence that the article is just a bunch of lies is in the CO2 concentration vs temperature anomaly 2020-2050 chart. “The temperature in this chart was calculated by using the ratio of the change in the temperature anomaly to the change in the concentration of CO2 over the past 60 years.”
            Except that it is not true. +1°C in 30 years is a +0.33°C/decade. This is over double the warming rate of the past 60 years.

            Shame on you for bringing up such deceitful article. Alarmists are an easy to fool bunch.

          • No, your blinkers got in the way causing you to mis-interpret the graph – it “WAS calculated by using the ratio of the change in the temperature anomaly to the change in the concentration of CO2 over the past 60 years”.

            You’ll claim that’s wrong, fine, whatever, but I can’t be bothered following you down your grimey little rabbit hole any further.

      • BS La Niña is proof that temperatures would drop quickly. If any of their BS was actually true.
        If ocean legacy was true then the temperature increases we are seeing now have nothing to do with CO2. Probably true, but invalidates their theory in the first place. Can’t have it both ways.

        • In Spain temperatures dropped 12°C over the last two days. However the global average over long periods of time changes very little. Over periods > 15 years the global average does not change at more than 0.4°C/decade. Since 1979 the rate of warming has been ~ 0.12°C/decade.

          The planet has a huge thermal inertia. It will not warm or cool fast. Right now the thermal inertia of the oceans is resisting warming. That’s why the ocean surface is warming more slowly than land.

          • If true than a reduction of CO2 would result in land temperatures moving towards ocean temps ie cooling. But again land temperatures are always higher than ocean, the warming we are seeing is from the oceans reversing their cooling trend that led to the LIA. Otherwise warming would have started long after the anthro GHG introduction not before.

          • land temperatures are always higher than ocean, the warming we are seeing is from the oceans reversing their cooling trend that led to the LIA. Otherwise warming would have started long after the anthro GHG introduction not before.

            Global land surface is warmer than the ocean during interglacials and colder during glacials, as it should be since the ocean acts as a thermal capacitor with different inertias due to its slow mixing rate.

            The warming we are seeing is not from the ocean, as the ocean is now recharging as its increasing OHC shows.

            Since the mid-Holocene transition, the land surface had been cooling as the growth of global glaciers shows. Over that time period the ocean has been cooling too, discharging enthalpy to resist this cooling trend. See figures 2 & 3 of
            Rosenthal, Y., Linsley, B.K. and Oppo, D.W., 2013. Pacific Ocean heat content during the past 10,000 years. Science, 342(6158), pp.617-621.

            The LIA was an accentuation of that trend. The LIA was a land surface phenomenon due to atmospheric loss of enthalpy so the planet drew more on the OHC at the time. Afterwards the land surface started warming and the ocean started to increase its OHC.

            Generally speaking the ocean acts as a brake against whatever the land surface is doing at the time. The ocean has not warmed the land surface after the LIA. It has reduced land surface warming by increasing OHC. That enthalpy will be returned when the Earth enters its next phase of cooling.

          • I think you have the relationship backwards, again the ocean started warming then the atmosphere then GHG rise not the other way round

          • Not true. All the energy comes from the Sun. It warms the outer atmosphere, and the middle atmosphere all the way to the ozone layer, and the surface and down to a few feet in the ocean. GHGs backradiation just warms the surface and does not penetrate the ocean. The effect can be understood as having a stone and a bucket of water in the backyard; when the sun comes out it will warm the stone faster, when night falls the stone will also cool faster.

            Land is always leading, the ocean is always lagging. As long as the planet is warming the ocean will not warm the land (globally). The idea that there’s heat hiding in the ocean waiting to jump on us is absurd.

          • The warming we are seeing is not from the ocean, as the ocean is now recharging as its increasing OHC shows. and

            Land is always leading, the ocean is always lagging. As long as the planet is warming the ocean will not warm the land (globally). The idea that there’s heat hiding in the ocean waiting to jump on us is absurd.

            The data show the land and lower troposphere both lag the ocean by 2 months:

            https://i.postimg.cc/0QrqrG78/UAH-Land-lags-Had-SST3.jpg

            https://i.postimg.cc/4NGJRSDj/UAH-LT-v-Had-SST3.jpg

            All the energy comes from the Sun. It warms the outer atmosphere, and the middle atmosphere all the way to the ozone layer, and the surface and down to a few feet in the ocean.

            No, TSI/insolation warms the ocean down to hundreds of feet via absorption that creates sensible heat which then upwells and warms the air by conduction and by evaporation via convection and loss of latent heat to space.

            https://i.postimg.cc/c40M0fCr/light-penetration-ocean.jpg

          • Javier
            I respect you a lot but if the ocean is holding back the atmospheres warming as you stated earlier than it’s the ocean warming that allows the land to warm in lock step.
            The end Of LIA is the oceans leaving it’s cooling phase and entering it’s warming phase logically this would have been a slow processes starting hundreds of years before land warming actually happened. Again global warming started long before GHGs increased in the atmosphere and the increase in GHGs started before significant anthro sources. Logically this indicates natural change not anthro, but the warmest want to have it both ways, they want GHGs to be the cause and then thermal inertia of the oceans to last thousands of years, if so then logically the warming we are see started thousands of years ago.

    • Outlining the huge sacrifices that need to be made to reach zero emissions is one route, but for that to be effective part of the argument is that reducing co2 will have no short term impact on temperature and that it will take say 200 years for co2 and temperatures to reduce.

      After the trials of covid over the last six months i Doubt people will want to get on board for such small or no returns by making yet more sacrifices

      As I said elsewhere, there is a mindset that even the worst lockdown would have been fine “if it saves just one life”. So, yes, there ARE people who will get on board. They’re generally well-off and not in a place where they’ve suffered much, if anything, and they’re incapable of understanding how bad things might be for others. They’ll be perfectly fine telling everyone they have to sacrifice even more to “save the planet”.

  15. Where is this often-touted ”heat in the pipeline” supposed to be? A new CO2 molecule has its full effect within a few microseconds, the delay in the climate system is about three months, as shown by the annual cycle. Not much pipeline there.

    The only possible place would be the oceans. If so it must be a matter of reaching thermal equilibrium between ocean and atmosphere, which however never occurs, since the oceans have a turnover time of a millennium or more, which is much longer than it takes for CO2 to be absorbed by the ocean. And the heat (if any) being pipelined into the atmosphere now is presumably due to the MWP, which we probably can’t do much about now, not even by CO2 taxes.

    • Actual science is strictly forbidden from government-approved consensus “climate science” (TM).

  16. To reach the ideal consensus whereby every human being on this planet agrees to any one thing will take time … an infinite amount of time. So it stands to reason that to agree to two things, it will take twice as long.

  17. The metal Cobalt (Co) is not diatomic. It exists as a metallic lattice and science does not tell us (or has ever even hinted) that it warms the atmosphere. There is, however, some evidence that gaseous CO2 has a slight warming effect (as shown by Tyndall, Angstrom, Happer, Heller and Modest) but this effect is weak and dwarfed by a) the warming effect of water vapour and b) multifarious natural causes and cycles.
    If Tony Brown studied real science instead of highly flawed computer models he would discover this for himself. Furthermore, if he read Shellenberger’s new book ‘Apocalypse Never’ he would also discover that the slight warming (and fertilising) effects from CO2 far from being a ‘serious problem for humanity’ is, on balance, beneficial.

    • Anthony

      I have read his book. I am fully aware of the theories. Unfortunately it is not me setting climate policies so what I believe is immaterial. Those setting policy believe something quite different .

      Tonyb

  18. I think the easiest thing for those who want CO2 to drop is for them to just self-select out of the gene pool. That takes care of two “problems” at once!

    But seriously, perhaps we should be touting the benefits of a warmer planet, specifically comparing now to say, the winters of the 1780s and 90s; all the green out there; all the extra food!

    Just imagine if we could get to 1,000 ppm! It would be great.

  19. Things I will do:
    The Calculations
    Things I will not do:
    Take this seriously.
    Things you can do:
    Carry this on further.

    First, the rate law. I choose First Order Decay Kinetics. It is fast, easy, and everybody uses it. I have long maintained that CO2 going into the sinks (primarily the oceans) will follow Approach To Equilibrium Kinetics, to no good result of my efforts. Apparently Equilibrium Kinetics is too difficult for Climate Science, so first order kinetics it is.
    Second, the rate constant. Perhaps the best way is to grab a copy of the MLO data and graph up a Keeling Curve of your very own. Then fit an exponential curve and grab the rate constant directly.
    Justification: It is often said that the planetary sinks take up just about half of all anthropogenic emissions each year. So it follows that once emissions are halted, the sinks will keep working at the same rate, and atmospheric CO2 will fall mirroring it’s previous rise. Very convenient, but I did not come up with the mass balance calculation of 50%, others did that.

    On with the show:
    First Order Kinetics:
    log(X/X0) = -KT where X is the ending concentration and X0 is the start concentration.
    I think the minus sign is ugly so I reverse the log term.
    log(X0/X) = KT
    {Note: chemists use log(), physics people use ln(). The results are the same, but the K values differ by the factor 2.303. Before using any K value you find check to see if it is a log() K value, or a ln() K value. No mixing and matching, it does not work.}

    Now determine the Rate Constant:
    As I mentioned, grab the Keeling curve and fit it to an exponential. Unfortunately, I am way too lazy for that, so I will use the data provided.
    Data Given:
    430 ppm at 2030
    450 ppm at 2050
    Put into the rate equn.
    log(450/430) = K * 20
    K = 9.87 X 10e-4
    {Remember we said the decrease will mirror the increase, because 50% absorption going up, and a similar mass getting absorbed going down.}
    Now then:
    Year 2030 down to 350 ppm –
    log(430/350) = 9.87 X 10-4 * T; T = 91 or year 2121
    Year 2030 down to 280 ppm –
    log(430/280) = 9.87 X 10-4 * T; T = 189 or year 2219

    Year 2050 down to 350 ppm –
    log(450/350) = 9.87 X 10-4 * T; T = 111 or year 2161
    Year 2030 down to 280 ppm –
    log(450/280) = 9.87 X 10-4 * T; T = 209 or year 2259

    Now the Money Question!!!!!!!
    How long to cool off the planet??????
    I say just a year or two or three.
    Why??????
    Atmospheric processes are fast. In the temperate zones, annual temperature swings with the seasons are *vastly* larger than any temperature change caused by greenhouse gasses. As greenhouse gasses fall, the temperature must follow, lagging by no more than one winter season. This argument also works for the tropics with their rainy and dry seasons, and anywhere with monsoons, or ice caps.

    NOTE:
    No Bitching! No Whining!
    Do your own calculations, show us what you got.
    Post your results here.
    {Bonus points awarded for anyone who grabs the MLO data and fits an exponential to get a “real” rate constant.}

        • Bitching? Anyone who thinks our CO2 is gone in less than 10,000 years needs to be bitch-slapped back to reality.

          • Empty blah-blah yet again , hey Loy… DOH !

            Try some actual evidence rather than suppository driven models.

            You sound like you have been bitch-slapped all your life !!

          • Bitch Slap you!

            Show your work!

            Mathematically Illiterate Coward.
            10,000 years, Ha Ha Ha. The one who can do math laughs at the one who can’t.

          • According to a suppository 2004 model.

            LOL..

            You never cease to come up with slap-stick comedy. !

            Just think Loy.. all that failed effort to remove life-giving CO2 emissions, and its thankfully still going to hang around for another many thousands of years

            This is absolutely great news for life on Earth, isn’t it. ! 🙂

            in the immortal words.. DON’T PANIC !

          • “for another many thousands of years…”

            Yes, can’t you already sense it, those lucky people born in the year 5500 will look back with gratitude, so will those born in 12500 and even those born in the year 35500, too. All thankful. Forever thankful. Aren’t they so ever lucky they have wise, selfless, saints like us to permanently geo-engineering their atmosphere for them. They didn’t even have to ask, wer’re just doing it, because, well because thousands of future generations are way more important than making a buck and, ah… never mind.

      • It will fall a lot quicker because of the extra natural sinks that are theoretically taking away half of the anthro production.

  20. The developing nations completely control present and future energy and emissions and will continue use fossil fuels for the great majority of their energy. Global emissions won’t decline below present levels regardless of what the developed nations try to push. If CO2 controls global temperatures (they don’t) global temperatures will not drop. Only the rate of future increase will change.

    • Larry

      The west will be asked to make huge sacrifices in order to go carbon neutral. The rest of the world will not.

      I suspect therefore that co2 emissions are likely to be higher in ten years time than now. Perhaps then the west will realise they have been fooled.

      Tonyb

      • I suspect therefore that co2 emissions are likely to be higher in ten years time than now. Perhaps then the west will realise they have been fooled.

        That is not a given. The rate of increase in CO2 emissions has been going down since mid-2000s. The COVID crisis is going to be multi-year, reducing our emissions. There is a distinct possibility that by 2029 emissions could be lower than in 2019.

        • The only conclusion is that natural sources are increasing; out-gassing from thawing permafrost for example.

          • Your logic is flawed. An increase in natural sources is equivalent to a decrease in natural sinks. The end result is that the airborne fraction should increase. We know that is not the case. The airborne fraction has been decreasing over time so we know that natural sinks have been increasing faster than natural sources.

            Atmospheric levels just take some time to respond to changes in emissions because they are small compared with fluxes, so variability in fluxes masks small changes in emissions for some time. But in a few years we should see atmospheric levels reducing their rate of increase.

          • Your assumption is flawed.

            “The airborne fraction has been decreasing over time so we know that natural sinks have been increasing faster than natural sources.”

            “We estimate a positive, yet statistically insignificant, slope
            in the data for the airborne fraction”
            https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/16/3651/2019/bg-16-3651-2019.pdf

            “they are small compared with fluxes…” So small they could be rising.

            Or in other words there is nothing “flawed” about interpreting an accelerating CO2 conc. while anthro sources decline as being a possible consequence of a rise in natural sources.

  21. The Paris Agreement doesn’t stipulate emission reductions to zero by 2050. The only thing that was agreed to (but not binding) was the “Nationaly Determined Contributions” (NDCs) which were applied from 2020-30 and assumed to run at that level till 2100. These were 25-27% for USA and 40% for EU as a guide.

    It is true that the IPCC also invited countries to submit “Mid Century Strategies” (MCS) over the ensuing 5 years. These were nothing more than “aspirations”, a word used by Climate Interactive who are heavily associated with MIT and advised the IPCC at Paris.

    The US and EU Mid-Century Strategies landed on the IPCCs desk in NYC over the next two years. They essentially ‘aspired’ to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050, not 100% ie to zero and to do so by employing “as yet uninvented technologies” (US’s MCS).Their rambling, non-committal tone perfectly encapsulated the complete unpreparedness for such an undertaking.

    The MCS’s were never part of the solidly agreed terms at Paris. Only the much more modest NDCs were. The MCSs were simply invited to focus minds on the task ahead. 5-yearly reviews of NDCs were agreed to in the Paris Agreement, starting in 2020. It can be assumed that the MSC’s might inform those revisions. But the NDC emission reductions can’t go down- they must always “ratchet” up, a favourite word of the IPCC/MIT et al.

    Thus, if they get anywhere at all, the COP delegates will get a few crumbs every 5 years, and never reach 80% by 2050, let alone 100%.

    The 100% we have AOC to thank for. She shoe-horned it in under the Trojan Horse of the 80% in the US Mid-Term Strategy. Now everyone thinks it was a) always there b) binding (or at least, as binding as the NDC pledge. Climate Interactive, Climate Action Tracker and MIT continually conflate the NDC’s (which are genuine Paris Agreement pledges) with the MCS submitted reports. They consistently called the 80% reduction by 2050 a “pledge” alongside (actually, rolled in with) the NDC’s. Now it’s a 100% “pledge” thanks to AOC and its trickled over to the EU and UK.

    This nefarious practice has duped the voting public into thinking their governments have promised to reduce emissions by 100% by 2050. Meanwhile the electricity bill for the average U.K./German/Californian has almost tripled in 10 years.

    • and it also allows the BS carbon neutral technologies a free pass.
      Wood chips are likely higher CO2 emitters than the coal they replace not to mention wind energy and solar which demand huge coal and oil inputs for construction and maintenance.

      so this whole discussion is like a surreal puppet show all the players are just virtue signaling and if they don’t know it they are truly stupid. Just possible!

      • It depends where you get you wood chips.

        Importing forest derived chips to the UK from USA is clearly NOT sensible and doesn’t reduce CO2.

        Using sawmill waste, quick growing willow or coppiced wood, waste wood e.g from demolition probably is.

        Solar panels and wind turbines save more CO” in their lifetime than takes to make, transport, erect, operate and ultimately demolish. The point at which saving kick in is usually in months not years. Look it up!!!

        • Not really! You still need back up from fossil fuels or nuclear to keep civilisation running. Besides that, the effort required to build, repair, and replace windmills and solar is beyond reach.

        • “Solar panels and wind turbines save more CO” in their lifetime than takes to make, transport, erect, operate and ultimately demolish. ”

          Ignoring all the massive amounts of toxic chemicals used and abused in the manufacture of solar panels and wind turbines doesn’t help your fantasies, griffool !

          Most wind turbines are just left to rot anyway, and their bases are left as huge anti-environmental boulders. And like the turbine blades, the solar panels, a large proportion will just be dumped in land fill to pollute the surrounding area for hundreds of years.

          But you don’t care about that, do you griffool. Environmental vandal !!!

  22. The history of the Norse settlement in Greenland has been studied and documented, and clearly shows that Greenland was significantly warmer around the year 1000 than today. Then the history shows that the climate grew colder, leading to the Little Ice Age in the 1600’s. Now, after several hundred years of warming, we are still not as warm as 1,000 years ago. With this in mind, what is the problem?

    For that matter, 6,000 years ago it was even warmer than 1,000 years ago, sea levels were several feet higher, and trees grew further north and at higher altitudes than today. See “Climate Change in Prehistory” by Burroughs, a book with an appendix containing some 270 scientific references.

    The reality is that we are in a relatively long-term cooling phase, the result of the Milankovitch Cycles, and in the process of heading for the next BIG ice age of some 90,000 years. Due to the side effects of that ice age, including reduction of land area available for farming and reduced CO2 levels as the colder ocean waters absorb more CO2, we will be hard pressed to maintain food production. The additional CO2 in our atmosphere will help counteract these problems to some degree, and future generations will thank us. The effects of CO2 on temperature are negligible compared to the natural climate cycles of our earth.

    • +1,000. I agree completely. There is nothing unusual about the current Modern Warm period.

      In addition we need to take advantage of it now (the relative warmth and abundant energy), while we can and build out nuclear power technologies for when the remaining fossil fuels are difficult to extract. The very fact that most Climate Change carnival barkers a strident anti-nuclear power exposes what their true endgame is.

  23. Personal transport in most of Australia has likely gone up.
    Why?. Well most are still working so now drive to work and rest either got job keeper or living on retirement funds so drive to their favourite holiday spot.
    Mass Public transport is covid taboo.
    Car dealers , caretakers, campers, surfers…are everywhere they can be except home.

    Neck I’m one of them.

  24. How can I take “the science” at face value when there isn’t any science involved? It’s a ridiculous proposition I have to take the models at face value instead.

    So the questions are really – 1) when would the models predict a fall in temperatures and 2) when would it actually happen.

    1 ) The models overstate the impact of CO2, assume all of “the extra” comes from fossil fuels, and overstates the so-called “atmospheric half-life” of CO2 – all of which makes it impossible to produce a realistic answer. Given that man is adding about 4% of the total CO2 emitted into the atmosphere a year (a gross estimate all by itself) and that the “half-life” is often quoted to be over 100 years (another ridiculous statement), and that man is the only source of CO2 (again, ridiculous) then you should see the extra CO2 fall by 50% in 100 years, so if the natural is 280 and it’s at 420 today it would be 350 in 100 years. This would, according to the models, reduce temperature by about 1.5C. It would also reduce the growth rate of plants, the amount of food produced, and lead to more starvation, and accomplish NOTHING.

    2) Now assuming that at least half of so-called “global warming” is natural after a glacial period (fairly certain assumption or we would still be in the glacial period), that the “half-life” of CO2 is actually closer to 20 years (probably less), that there are natural sources for some of the “excess” CO2 (such as warming up the ocean), then you would see a reduction in temperatures of: n = Total observed warming, 1/2 n = natural and 1/2 n = man made, so the temperature would after 20 years be still rising at the rate more than 1/2*1/2 n + 1/2 n = 3/4 n. After 100 years it would become more than(1/2)^4*1/2 n + 1/2 n = 17/32 n. It would depend on the actual sensitivity to CO2 and the additional CO2 being added by nature. Temperatures keep rising until nature says differently. Man could slow rising temperatures by a small amount by most of them dying off and the rest living in the stone age.

    Sorry, all of this ignores the inertial feedback of the oceans, but it should make my point – we are seeing higher temperatures because some natural process(es) are making it warmer, and man has very little to do with it.

    Now the next question is “Why do YOU assume warming is all bad?”. It could lead to a wetter climate, more moderate temperatures for large areas of the Earth, and higher food production. There is no “natural” best temperature of the Earth, it is always changing and so must mankind if they want to continue to live here.

  25. It’s true that greenhouse gas warms the world. It’s just that the ghg is NOT CO2.

    The only greenhouse gas that has a significant effect on climate (climate includes temperature) is water vapor. It helped make the planet warm enough for life as we know it to evolve. Humanity has been causing the water vapor to slowly increase for millennia as a result of increasing irrigation. Irrigation and other water vapor sources have increased along with human population and began to increase much more rapidly around 1960.

    Water vapor has been accurately measured worldwide only since Jan 1988 when it began being measured as total precipitable water (TPW) by NASA/RSS satellite. One of the reasons the Global Circulation Models are wrong is that they calculate the WV from the temperature instead of using the actual WV measurements which are greater.

    Blaming CO2 for warming is shallow penetration of science/physics. Analysis using data from Quantum Mechanics calculations by Hitran reveals that water vapor increase has caused about 10 times more ground level warming than CO2 increase. The cooling effect of more CO2 in the stratosphere apparently cancels the small contribution to warming of more CO2 at ground level with the result that CO2 has no significant effect on climate.

    WV has been increasing about 1.5% per decade which is MORE THAN POSSIBLE from feedback from temperature increase. Most (about 96%) of the WV increase is a result of irrigation increase. All of the human contribution to climate change is a result of increased water vapor. https://watervaporandwarming.blogspot.com

    • And here I was, hoping that at long last Zoe had managed to come to her senses. Alas, not.

      Have you submitted that paper to the Nobel commission yet? If correct, you should be entitled to at least 3 or 4.

    • Venus is hot because it turns very slowly and, thanks to its thick atmosphere and high winds, doesn’t cool off during its 121.5 Earth day-long nights. That the air is mostly CO2 is neither here nor there.

      • And why is its atmosphere so thick?
        You seem to think this thickness is some kind of cause, whereas I correctly see it as an effect of internal subsurface energy.

        • It’s thick because its CO2, SO2 and N2 were not drawn down by geology, chemistry and biology, as on Earth.

          • They aren’t drawn down by gravity, but by chemistry and biochemistry. What was CO2 in Earth’s air is now its carbonate rocks and living things.

          • John, you’ve turned this into a chicken and egg problem. Which came first? CO2 in air or CO2 inside liquids or solids? Or were they simultaneous?

            It is the internal thermal energy that determines thickness of atmosphere. Just look at Venus and Uranus. Uranus has an even thicker atmosphere. Is that because it has even less biochemistry than Venus? No. That is an absurd question. They are both essentially biochemically barren.

            Be sensible, John.

  26. “phasing out of most conventional power sources, a much greater reliance on renewable energy”

    phasing out of most conventional power sources, a much greater reliance in unreliable energy

    Fixed it for you.

  27. Tonyb,
    You have set up an exercise much like graduate students discuss in pubs on Friday afternoons and into evening – with food and beer. This discussion is then continued the next Friday, and the one after that. So, sorry – no answers.

    But another question. There is a claim that the extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is responsible for greater plant growth. Still, the increase goes on at about 2 ppm per year. If Zero CO2 were to happen all the extra green will continue to draw on that atmospheric plant food and the concentration would drop.
    How fast?
    How far?
    Will it cause over-shooting; that is at 280 does it continue to drop?
    At what concentration do plants begin to suffer from too little?
    Rumor is that at 150 ppm most plants could not survive.
    Thus, when does “extinction” happen?

    [414 – 280 = 134] [ (134 / 2) = 67 years ]
    Thus, in 2087 extinction begins.

  28. “Climate change” encompasses anything. As there is no qualifying pronoun to distinguish warming v cooling, natural v man-made , or even if it is dangerous, the term is both utterly meaningless and can mean anything at the same time. Many have been deceived by semantic manipulation.

    When the pendulum swings toward cooling, we will find the narrative changing again. It will be “Impending ice age caused by humans.” The “solution” will be the same- hand over your wealth and freedom or the world will end.

    The human brain is the same size as it was 10,000 years ago. The same superstitious tendencies and tendencies to be bullied in to committing ludicrous acts are still there. BLM violence/ destroy society totally based on someone essentially dying from methamphetamine overdose is as absurd as the old pagan rituals of sacrificing virgins.

    The belief that the 3% of atmospheric CO2 level increase that is from humans is going to destroy the world should be as absurd as it can get, yet we are (once again) being bullied in to believing this absurdity. To quote Voltaire-“Those that can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.”

    Have we really outgrown human stupidity? The very clear answer is NO.

  29. Laboratory experiment tells us that there is a correlation between CO2 and temperature. Science tells us that we are uncertain of the order of cause and effect in an open frame of reference (e.g. atmosphere).

  30. “Reducing energy consuption via meatless meals, cell phones, etc means a claim that energy must bereduced. That is pure nonsense: all energy can be electric and all can be generated by a carbon free and very cheap SMR molten salt reactor. All cars will go electric is short order. Let’s do a little thinking, please

  31. “how long would it take for Co2 levels to naturally fall”

    We take climate action not to make co2 fall but to stop making it rise. The theory does not say that high co2 causes warming. It says that rising co2 causes warming. We don’t take climate action to control the temperature. We do so to control the rate of warming.

  32. Is there really going to be a Part II to this garbage? Maybe Part II will have some real science in it, something worth reading past the first couple of paragraphs?

    • Bob

      What you or I believe is irrelevant. It is those carrying out the agenda that matters and they believe that humanity is causing a huge problem. They are egged on by influential fanatics.

      A glance at the first paragraph then a read of the story will show how seriously the EU take all this. it may be that after November America will radically change its stance

      Tonyb

  33. –So here are the simple questions again. Assuming we reach zero carbon emissions by 2030-Extinction Rebellion (XR) requirement, or 2050 -the aim of most governments under the Paris Accord- 1) how long would it take for Co2 levels to naturally fall below the’ safe upper limits’ of 350ppm espoused by such as James Hansen; 2) for it to fall further to 280ppm -the previous pre industrial level -AND 3) when will temperatures start to fall in turn, to achieve pre industrial levels said to be 1 to 2 degrees Centigrade below present, according to the IPCC.–

    Is there anyone sane who wants global temperatures to fall “1 to 2 degrees Centigrade below present”?
    I don’t think anyone wants zero carbon emissions, they want net zero carbon emissions.
    Which means if burn wood from trees and make a lot CO2, it does count as CO2 emission because it’s the rules that it’s “net zero carbon emissions”.
    Also if plant a lot trees, that outsets burning coal to power your electric car.

    Idea is to enslave the entire world and then Dear Leaders can make important decisions about what the want to call “net zero carbon emissions”. And it’s just a matter of getting your slaves to plant some trees.

    Anyhow, if earth cools by 1/2 C, they will change their minds, and decide warming is better than getting colder while in an Ice Age {duh!].
    Then Dear Leaders will burn everything to make CO2 god come back, and then it will appear we are living in Mordor. Or every totalitarian state to date makes huge amount pollution for no apparent good reason.
    Then we will get cannibalism because, why not?
    And it only stops, when we kill all of our Dear Demented Leaders.

    • “Is there anyone sane who wants global temperatures to fall “1 to 2 degrees Centigrade below present”?”

      Whaat? Given any rapid change, up or down, could screw up a lot things; the weather patterns for example, and that temperatures are rising rapidly right now, you mean is there anyone sane who wants global temperatures to rise“1 to 2 degrees Centigrade below present” don’t you?

      • “and that temperatures are rising rapidly right now”

        BS !! Only by smearing urban warming all over the place and fraudulent adjustment of past data.

        Reality is different.

        Only a degree or so above the coldest period in 8000 or so years.

        FAR lower than for most of the Holocene.

        Of course some more warming won’t hurt anyone, because it would happen in places that are still very much on the cold side now.

        More CO2 won’t hurt anyone either,

        in FACT, it will be very beneficial to basically ALL LIFE ON EARTH. !

  34. “This is expected by governments to result in a gentler, slower, less polluted and more sustainable way of life, centred more round the local community.”

    In that case where are their plans for downsizing government? As with Covid, the public sector continues unabated, regardless of circumstances.

    • . . . centred more round the local community.”

      I don’t think they have thought much about this:
      Are there “local communities” in high-rise apartments?
      For example, see this photo.

  35. I have looked at the heating curve that is the best fit for ocean heat take up since the records began in 1955. I did not consider the point in time of action but rather considered the level of CO2 reached. The atmospheric level of CO2 will double by 2080 if the current rate of increase continues. By then the ocean temperature rise over the 1850 level will be 0.4C:
    https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgnXLo5LnjuHhohGM

    Given that half of the CO2 from burning fossil fuels is removed by non human causes then the decline from any level will be the same as the rise if all burning of fossil fuel is stopped; a decade here or there is not going to make much difference due to the high thermal inertia of oceans (basically Hansen’s missing heat). The means the rate of temperature fall will mirror the temperature rise as the flux imbalance goes negative due to falling CO2 levels. So expect 230 years to get back to 1850 temperature from 2080, which gives 2310 for weather to be perfect again. (All politician’s are in the perfect weather game; all promising that nasty hurricanes, nasty wild fires, nasty tornados, nasty cold snaps, nasty hot spells, nasty droughts, nasty floods etc will all be gone after the fix it by not burning fossil fuels)

    Assumptions are:
    All ocean warming since 1850 is due to increase in CO2.
    Increase in ocean heat flux is a log function of the CO2 increase.
    The measurement of ocean temperature 0-2000m is accurate since 1955.

    If these assumptions apply, the model is a reliable predictor. The change in ocean temperature is less than the change in surface temperature but there is substantial annual noise in the sea surface temperature due to a range of weather related factors that are not significant from a climate perspective.

    An interesting aside here with respect to removing CO2, the bush fires in Australian over the 2019/20 summer burnt enough fuel to power the entire Australian economy for 2 years.

  36. Science tells us that rapidly rising Co2 in turn causes rising temperatures, which has become a very serious problem for humanity.

    A false premise in two different levels.
    –Science doesn’t tell us anything because science is not a person. Some scientists say so, but scientists have been known to be wrong before.
    –The warming has not become a very serious problem for humanity by any rational criteria.

    • Javier

      Hmm, as bit pedantic. There are thousands of articles on science that say ‘science tells us’ I am happy to be in their illustrious company.

      As for how serious it is ,those that control the purse strings and control our lives believe it to be a very serious problem and will go to any lengths to save us from ourselves

      tonyb

      • I am happy to be in their illustrious company

        Well, you shouldn’t Tony because you can’t argue with Science while you can argue with scientists. So when somebody is using “science tells us” essentially that somebody is telling us we can’t argue that. It is a HUGE FALLACY. They are not an illustrious company.

      • those that control the purse strings and control our lives believe it to be a very serious problem

        Why are you assuming they are telling the truth? It is not as if they haven’t been known before to tell lies. They say whatever is necessary to pursue their goals. It is clear that their goal is to carry out an energy transition because that is where the money is going. If the goal was to reduce CO2 then two thirds of the World, that happens to be the ones that are increasing their emissions faster, would not get a free pass. Leading by example does not work in the international arena.

    • “this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal …” Barack Obama

      He did part with common sense, but that is a different story.

  37. When will Temperatures start to fall?
    Nick Stokes has a graph that helps immensely.
    The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index.
    His leading post The GISS V4 land/ocean temperature anomaly also has a link to commentasry from J Hansen.
    Few have commented that at the start of this year and coming off a very hot Novenber December 2020 was shaping up to be the warmest year in recent records.
    The emergence of a probable La Nina has put an end to that.
    Currently 2020 Aug 0.144
    Previous monthly’s 2020 Jul 0.214 2020 Jun 0.223 2020 May 0.337 2020 Apr 0.401
    2020 Mar 0.356 2020 Feb 0.554 2020 Jan 0.552 2019 Dec 0.587

    In answer to the question on one index only Temperatures have fallen by 0.43 C worldwide in just 8 months and look likely to go lower.
    Nick has problems with his graph that he had to adjust in a misleading way.
    The base for the anomaly is no linger 0.00C but -.05.
    I guess he did not want to show negative daily values have started to happen.

    • At one point they use RCP8.5 (2081 to 2100).
      That’s not happening.
      What else in this study is nonsense?

  38. The reason for posting these figures is to discuss Tony’s greater premise from a different viewpoint.

    “proposition. Science tells us that rapidly rising Co2 in turn causes rising temperatures, which has become a very serious problem for humanity.”
    “There are all sorts of caveats of course, with methane, water vapour, clouds, feedbacks, ocean response, natural variations etc”-
    “Whether the reader personally believes excess Co2 to be a problem” No.

    3) when will temperatures start to fall in turn, to achieve pre industrial levels, said to be 1 to 2 degrees Centigrade below present, according to the IPCC.”

    One does not need a drop in CO2 at all for temperatures to return to pre industrial levels.
    Our poor knowledge and ability to measure the important parameters of cloud cover, aerosols and ECS means we are making hopeless stabs in the dark at trying to make such assessments.

    If we take the world as it is and ignore human interference altogether, basically the recipe for the last 3.5 billion years, we would see that temperatures consistent with life have existed for that very long period.
    Which means the orbit and temperature range we are in has been remarkably stable for that time.
    Hence distance from the sun, temperature of the sun, size of the earth etc for this to happen are reasonably well established.
    Ice ages and hothouse earths are not going to happen for tens to 100s of thousands of years.
    Short term variations of several degrees happen all the time on this background.
    Proof the change of 0.44C in just 8 months, the temperature swings with El Nino and La Nina.
    Herein a problem as El Nino and La Nina merely describe what is happening with the oceans when this temperature changes occur, they are pat of the change, not the cause, very important.

    The consequence of 0.44 in 8 months or larger at times is simply this. A 1C change can occur in any one year, a 2C change in10 years and a 3C change in 100 years or longer.
    Hence we have been going through such a change of a little over a 1C in the last 150 years.
    At a time coincident with rising CO2 emissions, which also necessitate an extra undetermined forcing.

    If I was to postulate a non human affected earth the pattern of the last 150 years is easily achievable without invoking CO2.
    Hence it could also easily return to preindustrial levels in the same frame or faster or slower.

    Would lowering CO2 help or hinder this?
    The unquantified CO2 response seems likely to be of such a low level that it would not really be a help or hindrance to these time frames.

  39. I still see a giant problem in the concept of energy in and energy out and so called retained heat or radiative imbalance.
    A massive hole.
    In the sense of the time energy can be retained, retarded or held back for.
    Energy transit time is the problem.
    Earth is basically in steady state radiation balance.
    That is the oceans and land have all warmed up to the degree that they are entitled to under the laws of thermodynamics.There is no active room to store extra energy into the oceans, no reason why the earth should suddenly say it will disobey the laws of energy and start storing up extra energy.
    What the sun puts in daily more or less has to go out daily. Not stay stored under the ocean surface for hundreds of years.

    Please do not misunderstand. There are pockets of warmer water under the surface. In cliudy nights the air stays warmer under the clouds than under a bare sky.
    But these pockets are already in existence, or being created while the earth has to continually radiate back the same amount of energy it has received.
    For every hot pocket of air or water there is another pocket that is colder in order for that energy to radiate out.
    -There is a radiative imbalance every day when the sun comes up.
    The CO2 in the air helps transiently delay the passage time of the incoming radiation. until it reaches radiative balance. When the power of the sun goes way the radiative imbalance works the other way.
    The temperature of the air is due to the actual level of the CO2 etc that day, and every day.

    responds

  40. The covid-19 crisis, when compared to the climate “crisis” is revealing that we live under a system in which academics have gained substantial control over the levers of power. This is becoming form of “rule by professors” under which our elected politicians claim “we have to follow The Science.” The action taken for covid-19 was extreme enough that they felt the need to bring the professors out on stage with them.

    I predict that when they really start ramping up CO2 mitigation levels to the extent they have threatened, you will see more professors wheeled out, this time of the climate variety. They will spout the same sciencey stuff that the virus professors spouted, but making even less sense when subjected to scrutiny.

  41. I am saddened when people misunderstand posts like this.
    Tony is asking where is the evidence of when a) CO2 will start to fall and when temperatures will start to fall.
    This missing evidence is being used to force unbelievable policies on the peoples of Europe and via green envy of AOC etc, the US.
    All Tonyb is asking, does anyone know where or what this evidence is.
    The obvious conclusion is,if this crowd source search for evidence turns up nothing sensible, then we can concur the climate policies are evidence free.
    But we need to demonstrate this.

    • We are not going into a Grand Solar Minimum, we are in the midst of a Centennial Solar Minimum. Solar activity won’t decrease further and should increase after 2032.

      Feynman, J., & Ruzmaikin, A. (2011). The Sun’s strange behavior: Maunder minimum or Gleissberg cycle?. Solar physics, 272(2), 351.

      “The data do not support the Maunder Minimum conjecture. However, the behavior can be understood as a minimum of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle that previously minimized in the beginning of the 20th century.”

  42. At 280 ppm carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, it is assumed it was in equilibrium with the nature (oceans and land). Close to the equator CO2 was desorbed from the oceans to the atmosphere and the cold oceans absorbed CO2 from the atmosphere – all in parallel with other natural CO2 transport phenomena resulting in a net very, very slow decreasing CO2 concentration.

    All the natural CO2 transport phenomena are still today present although at a reduced desorption flow rate due to the higher atmospheric CO2 concentration which also will possibly increase the absorption rate into cold oceans. As well there is a higher biological activity on land as well.

    2019 ended at 413 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere.

    By recent fuel combustion and industrial production, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is calculated to increase by 4.5 ppm/year if nothing else happens (CO2 emission = 36*10^12 kg/year ; 44 kg/kmole ; atmos weight = 5.2*10^18 kg ; 29 kg/kmole ==> 36/44/5.2*29*10^-6 = 4.5 ppm/year).

    If the nature (land and oceans) also are adding CO2, then the atmospheric CO2 concentration would increase by more than 4.5 ppm/year.

    At Mauna Loa the atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured to increase by only 2.5 ppm/year.

    The difference, 2 ppm/year, has to be accumulated elsewhere – into the nature.

    The natural CO2 emissions to the atmos are much bigger than those from the the fossil fuels, but the flow from atmos to nature are even bigger, according to the atmos CO2 mass balance, net 2 ppm/year to the nature.

    Those big natural CO2 flows through the atmos makes the recidence time for a single CO2 molecule to be less than 12 years.

    Reducing the CO2 concentration will take much longer.

    By reducing the fossil fuel emissions to only 16 Gton/year CO2, the concentration will initially stay steady at 413 ppm (net 2 ppm/year in and 2 ppm/year out from atmos) for a very long period of time.

    By a sudden 100 % reduction of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the sinks are still initially active at net 2 ppm/year. At lower atmos CO2 concentration that figure will be much lower, 0 ppm/year at 280 ppm (or at slighty higher concentration due to all the accumulated CO2 from fossil fuels).

    Halfway down from 413 to 280 ppm, 413-(413-280)/2 = 347 ppm, the net sink flow rate is assumed to be reduced to half of the existing.

    Let’s use (2+2/2)/2 = 1.5 ppm/year as an average sink rate going from 413 ppm halfway down to 280 ppm ==> (413-347)/1.5 = 44 years to reach 347 ppm at zero anthropogenic emissions.

    Halfway down from 347 to 280 ppm, 347-(347-280)/2 = 313 ppm, the net sink flow rate is assumed to be reduced to half.

    Let’s use (2/2+2/2/2)/2 = 0.75 ppm/year as an average sink rate going from 347 ppm halfway down to 280 ppm ==> (347-313)/0.75 = 45 years to reach 313 ppm at zero anthropogenic emissions.

    By 2050 at 450 ppm the net sink rate is assumed to be 2*(450-280)/(413-280) = 2.55 ppm/year.

    Let’s use (2.55+2.55/2)/2 = 1.9 ppm/year as an average sink rate going from 450 ppm halfway down to 280 ppm ==> (450-365)/1.9 = 45 years to reach 365 ppm at zero anthropogenic emissions.

    In conclusion every halfway step down to 280 ppm will take 45 years.

    The atmospheric temperature close to the surface, will respond in parallel to the ocean temperature change, everything else being the same (volcanos, sunshine …..).

    CO2 emissions :
    https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by-year/

    Atmospheric CO2 measurements :
    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

    Roy Spencer calculations :
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/04/a-simple-model-of-the-atmospheric-co2-budget/

    ”A responsible sceptic”, Ferdinand Engelbeen reviewing climate data :
    http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/climate.html

    Kind regards
    Anders Rasmusson

  43. This article’s author seems unaware that in December 2017 Australian researcher Robert Holmes published a definitive, peer-reviewed refutation of any possible “carbon footprint” (greenhouse-gas CO2) influence on any –repeat, any– planet’s global atmospheric surface temperature (GAST).

    For genuinely falsifiable (Popperian) thinking on this prospect, as distinct from sociopathic Luddites’ Grand Theft bleats-and-squeaks [cf: “Mass timber” construction over concrete-and-steel; what’s next, tumbleweed airliners?], see also Danish researcher Henrik Svensmark and Russia’s Valentina Zharkova: Since sunspot activity governs the strength of solar magnetic fields (SMF), sunspot minima reduce SMF intensity. As fields diminish, Cosmic Rays penetrate Earth’s magnetospheric sheath to seed the planet’s overcast cloud-cover, diminishing total solar irradiance (TSI) and lower global temperatures. [Also see Klimat Kooks’ “clean energy” New Manhattan Project, pretending nuclear power does not exist.]

    Combined with plate-tectonic continental dispositions, currently blocking global atmospheric/oceanic circulation patterns by walling off Eastern from Western hemispheres, for the first time since the pre-Cambrian Ediacaran Aeon fluctuating TSI has induced cyclical 102-kiloyear glaciations over 3.6 million years since the mid-Pliocene. Though Earth’s interstadial 12,250-year Holocene Interglacial Epoch ended with a 500-year Little Ice Age in AD 1350, global temperatures have trended lower over 3½ millennia from New Kingdom Pharaonic times. On this empirical basis, Holmes’ “Mean Molar Mass version of the Ideal Gas Law” equates any planet’s Temperature T = PM/Rp, where P = Atmospheric Pressure times M = Mean Molar Mass over R = Atmospheric Density times Gas Constant p.

    With virtually zero error margins throughout the solar system, Holmes’ Law accordingly negates any planet’s parts-per-million (PPM) “carbon footprint” (CO2), refuting anthropogenic warming via “fossil fuel” (sic) emissions root-and-branch. QED: Any AGW poseur professing otherwise is either studiously ignorant of decades-long research, basic math plus nuclear reality, or a mendacious fool.

    • The interglacial period prior to this one that we’re living in, had lower CO2 and was 2°C warmer. So the question is moot.

  44. The problem is that the goal of reducing CO2 emissions has become confounded with the goal of establishing an authoritarian redistributive/socialist/marxist new order.

    In the 1960s and 1970s Sweden and France showed the world how to generate all the emissions-free electricity you could want without collapsing living standards or requiring a political revolution. That is why there is so much greenie opposition to nuclear power – it works. Safely. There should really be no debate about what to do if the objective is simply to reduce CO2 emissions per unit energy used.

    So this is an entirely political issue. And it has become the new battleground. In fact, you could quite reasonably call the battle to come the mother of all political battles. Two things cannot occupy the same space at the same time. You cannot have a Green New Deal and at the same time experience personal economic and political freedom at anywhere near a level seen in the postwar period. Under a Green New Deal regime, energy use will be rationed, sometimes severely so, there can be no doubt about that.

    Game on. For all our sakes, we can only hope the winners are those who value personal liberty.

  45. Tony Brown: ” but having scoured various ‘official’ web sites I can find no definitive estimate.”

    Which just demonstrates once again the monumental task involved in trying to work these things out, the number of variables, latent, discrete, continuous, dependent, independent, known and unknown, etc. are seemingly endless. The science is far from settled as some would have us believe.

    TB – “The three questions I ask, in the expectation that the answer can be provided from main stream published science is”

    Well to your first two questions concerning the lifetime of CO² in the atmosphere, Chicago University produced this http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2009.ann_rev_tail.pdf back in 2009.

    In France we have a guy called Jean-Marc Jancovici, he is an Associate Professor at Mines ParisTech, I personally have issues with some of his “solutions” to these “problems”, but he talks very frankly about the climate and the consequences of certain political decisions that are being made, especially in the EU.

    Not a scientific paper I know, but here on his own website is his take on the questions: (In English) https://jancovici.com/en/climate-change/predicting-the-future/will-climate-change-get-rapidely-to-a-halt-if-we-quickly-decrease-the-emissions/

    • I am not aware of Jancovici nor how much credibility he is given but he produces a very clear graphic. I will check him out further. Thanks

      Tonyb

  46. I fully understand the point Tony is making. We are being asked to change our lifestyle, so we should be told when to expect the benefit. It is the responsibility of scientists and politicians to tell us, but we know that they will be unable to do that because there is not enough knowledge or evidence.

    Rather than shock these people into questioning their actions, I expect them to ignore us.

    I would prefer to give massive publicity to the fact that climate models are not fit for purpose. I would challenge politicians on why they can justify expensive change on the basis of flawed models. I would claim that the scientists do not understand the climate, as illustrated by four decades of failed models which are getting worse, not better.

    The time to do this is now, for several reasons. The alarmists are gearing up for another big campaign once Covid fades from the headlines. The public has been exposed to the controversial nature of pandemic model predictions. In the UK an algorithm used to predict education exam results failed badly. It may not come as a surprise that climate modelling is not as reliable as they have been led to believe. Politicians challenged on the science using failed models as the evidence is more of an immediate issue than guessing when in the climate might respond.

    • Shrodinger’s cat

      Thanks for your support. You say

      “I would prefer to give massive publicity to the fact that climate models are not fit for purpose”

      The trouble is that we have been doing that for years and some way is found to skirt round the issue, Just as excuses were made for Fergusons flawed CV model and the Exam algorithm.

      Hopefully if the general public realise they are being asked to wear painful hair shirts without knowing when they can take them off again, there will be a widespread refusal to go along with it that can circumvent those controlling the agenda

      tonyb

      • Thinking about it, both are linked. If the models are unfit for purpose, they are unable to pedict future temperature increases allegedly caused by increasing CO2. Estimates of the reverse, i.e. when will temperatures decrease as a result of reductions in atmospheric CO2, cannot be answered either.

        In other words, reliable scientific understanding and justification simply does not exist.

  47. If we assume the sky is indeed falling, how many virgins would we have to sacrifice to the sky-gods, and how long would it take for the sky to stop falling and reverse back to its original place?

    • Well, NASA recently found that the atmosphere had contracted. You know, like as a gas volume reduces when the temperature goes down. So, in a sense, the sky is falling. I believe we’ve passed the tipping point for this emergency and it is too late even to sacrifice virgins.

  48. Has anyone ever calculated or done experiments to show how much CO2 is released from the oceans as they warm?

  49. Their model – which I do not believe in – says the nature can take 2.4 ppm each year. What it can not take is the rest, 2.2 ppm from the total 4.6 ppm we emit every year, so if we stop emitting, concentration in the atmosphere would go down with 2.4 ppm every year.

    • Observa

      .The idea that new diesel and petrol cars would not be allowed in the UK from 2030 will hopefully demonstrate to others that the rest of the world is taking action, whether we think it necessary or not

      tonyb

  50. “…temperatures have risen substantially…”

    A 0.1 to 0.2 C rising trend PER DECADE!!! (UAH) in the anomaly is not “substantial.”

    (how many can ‘splain “anomaly? Show of hands.)

    It’s natural variation, noise in the data, UHI, instrument uncertainty, technical progress in equipment and updated methods and trivial NOT substantial.

    Attack the root of the fallacy and the rest will topple.

    • A 0.1 to 0.2 C rising trend PER DECADE!!! (UAH) in the anomaly is not “substantial.”

      It depends for how long it is sustained. The Quaternary Ice Age was established through a decreasing trend of only 1 °C per million years. Coming from the Miocene that trend was sufficient to freeze solid Antarctica and Greenland and extend large ice sheets over a big part of the Northern Hemisphere. So a trend of only 0.00001 °C per decade is tremendously substantial if sustained over 7 million years.

      But then we wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for the Quaternary Ice Age, so we shouldn’t complain. Such a silly animal would have not been produced if the favorable conditions of the Miocene had persisted.

  51. Here in the northern hemisphere, temperatures here start to fall about 4 pm or so every day. On longer timescales, average temps start falling slowly around the first week of August.

  52. Ooo, can I play too. If the Sun went dark and stopped giving off heat, but kept the same mass so our orbit stayed the same, how much CO2 would need to be in the atmosphere to keep us from cooling, since CO2 is what really controls the climate?

  53. From the above article: “Assuming we reach zero carbon emissions by 2030-Extinction Rebellion (XR) requirement, or 2050 -the aim of most governments under the Paris Accord . . .”

    Well, humans typically exhale 38,000 ppm (3.8%) CO2 compared to inhaling about 410 ppm CO2 with every breath, the excess CO2 resulting from the human body’s metabolic activity.

    There are about 7.8 billion humans currently living on Earth.

    How is humanity every going to reach net-zero—let alone, true zero—anthropogenic carbon emissions at any time in the future? Short of purging Earth of humans, that is.

  54. From the above article: “Assuming we reach zero carbon emissions by 2030-Extinction Rebellion (XR) requirement, or 2050 -the aim of most governments under the Paris Accord . . .”

    Well, humans typically exhale 38,000 ppm (3.8%) CO2 compared to inhaling about 415 ppm CO2 with every breath, the excess CO2 resulting from the human body’s metabolic activity.

    There are about 7.8 billion humans currently living on Earth.

    How is humanity every going to reach zero anthropogenic carbon emissions at any time in the future? Short of purging Earth of humans, that is.

    • That’s basal metabolism, ie sleeping.
      Include typical daily activity averaged over a day it’s close to 50000 ppm.
      About 1 kilogram of CO2 per human per day.

  55. About half the CO2 emitted by burning of fossils stay in the air. If we only emit half of present emissions the level of CO2 in the air would stabilize to a little higher level than today.
    If we stop the fossil burning i assume the level in the air would start dropping with 2ppm a year. The forcing from changes in CO2 acts very fast and the variuos feedbacks acts just as fast, so from theese rute considerations i guess the temperature should begin dropping in 10 years time.
    When the temperature has dropped sufficiently, we have to concider emitting CO2 again, just to keep the paradisian climate constant.

    • (Laughing) The “CO2 is the planet’s temperature control knob” belief.
      Let’s just assume your belief if correct.

      And how do you propose getting to half current emissions when the emissions growth is all in the developing world, mostly China and India? Put Europe into the stone ages while China and Russia watch and laugh waiting for their chance to take what they want?

      Svend, Your idiotic ideas come straight from a Kremlin and Beijing play book for World Domination.

  56. Tony is asking exactly the right question, and the fact that it is so hard to find it answered anyplace in the vast quantity of publications about global warming is a bit of a giveaway.

    The question is one to ask of activists and policy makers advocating policies.

    Its fundamentally as simple as this: what effects on the supposed problem will the proposed policies have?

    Except he has put it in reverse: he has asked what it will take to produce the changes people claim to want and to intend producing.

    The underlying problem with the movement is the same whichever way you put it. They demand that things be done which, if the theory is correct, will have no effect on the supposed problem. They refuse to advocate things which, if the theory is correct, are required to make any impact on it.

    If you want two examples: in the UK they advocate turning Drax into biofuelled generation. How much effect will this have on global CO2 levels? None. Similarly by the way with the proposal to go to EVs by 2030.

    And an example of the second, you will find no activist prepared to advocate that China should reduce total tons of CO2 emitted, or stop building coal fired power plants. But this is something they ought to think, if they really believed the theory, is absolutely essential.

    The movement has a clear and fundamental problem. It is advocating as means to ends policies which, according to its own theories, will not do anything to deliver those ends.

    Go figure why this might be happening. But the fact is, it is. This is what Tony is pointing out.

    • They do not really believe in AGW. If they did we’d be building 20 GWatts of nuclear generation capability annually…for 30 to 50 years…it’s the only way to meet their (artificial) targets. And the China/India free pass seals the certainty of the lies. It’s not about the Climate.

      They invented a pseudo-crisis that can’t be fixed using their own fake numbers and their currently stated fake solutions (renewables and taxes ONLY in the Western World) . Their solutions puts them (increasingly centralized power) in control of almost everything we do and everything we make.

      It’s all and only about acquiring power for the Globalist Agenda. And that’s the same reason they’ve stopped at nothing to get rid of Trump…currently the number one obstacle to their plans. Watch the (95%) unified Press attacks…everyday with the same attack stories using the exact same words and phrases across the entire Press Corp. They speak as one voice. And CAGW is one of their story lines.

  57. On geological time scales, global temperature and global atmospheric CO2 have never corellated in the history of planet Earth.
    Since the Cenozoic, both CO2 and temperature have generally declined together. That’s because CO2 follows temperature, always. The global biogeochemical carbon cycle follows temperature.
    Earth’s atmosphere is mostly of biological origin, except Argon.
    Atmospheric Tau for CO2 is around 20 years. See the chart of atmospheric nuclear bomb testing.
    Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere is entirely beneficial to life on Earth.
    Anyone who advocates removing CO2 from the air is a fool.

  58. “Governments have overwhelmingly agreed that humanity has added some 140ppm of Co2 to the pre industrial 280ppm and that, as a result, temperatures have risen substantially and are at a dangerous level and causing extremes of weather.”

    And if it isn’t exacerbating weather extremes, then it is much harder to argue that being warmer is a problem. Roger Hallam says that Arctic warming will freak the weather out so much that it will kill 6 billion people within ten years. That sounds like doublespeak for Agenda 2030. The UK Met Office can say nothing about the cause of historical seasonal cold and heat extremes, but have the hubris to suggest that our 2018 heatwave was made 30 times more likely by human induced climate heating. Without such pseudoscience about the weather, climate alarmism has little power. Evidence for the discrete solar forcing of heatwaves and coldwaves shows that they cause climate change. 2018 was the same type of event as the heatwaves of 1934, 1949, 1976, and 2003.
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/major-heat-cold-waves-driven-key-heliocentric-alignments-ulric-lyons/

    As for the post questions, temperatures could fall 1 to 2 degrees Centigrade below present without CO2 levels falling at all.

  59. What problem has the mild warming caused? Nothing negative that’s measurable and a whole lot of good.

    The CO2 greening is an incredible 3% global GDP boost by 2050 (and that’s before the multipliers).

    Cold is bad for life and civilization…costs more…hurts more…kills more.

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