Heads I Win Tails You Lose: The Canadian Pandemic Model

Guest post by Brian,

Introduction

A detailed analysis of the University of Manitoba’s recent model prepared on behalf of the Canadian Government illustrates exaggerated and incalculable conclusions. These explicitly theoretical projections, which have little evidence to support them, set an unrealistic foundation of what is considered a success or not with regards to Dr. Tam’s policies. In this case, the models that are used to predict the effects of Sars-Cov-2 adapts a completely unrealistic and unattainable worst-case scenario. Essentially any result, and every result possible, will be hailed as a resounding success – which is disingenuous. The virus would not come close to manifesting the chaos projected, even among a society with the loosest of policies. Fortunately, there are examples as many countries had their own approach in fighting the virus.

The basics of the SEIR model are rudimentary – though filled with several bells and whistles that create the sense of false precision.  This commentary will go through these one at a time. I find it important to note the modelling is unrealistic, serves to spread unwarranted fear in the Canadian population, and a breach of the trust placed in the Government of Canada by all Canadian citizens.

Comments on the Canadian Health Ministries Latest Sars-Cov-2 Projections

Introduction

A detailed analysis of the University of Manitoba’s recent model prepared on behalf of the Canadian Government illustrates exaggerated and incalculable conclusions. These explicitly theoretical projections, which have little evidence to support them, set an unrealistic foundation of what is considered a success or not with regards to Dr. Tam’s policies. In this case, the models that are used to predict the effects of Sars-Cov-2 adapts a completely unrealistic and unattainable worst-case scenario. Essentially any result, and every result possible, will be hailed as a resounding success – which is disingenuous. The virus would not come close to manifesting the chaos projected, even among a society with the loosest of policies. Fortunately, there are examples as many countries had their own approach in fighting the virus.

The basics of the SEIR model are rudimentary – though filled with several bells and whistles that create the sense of false precision.  This commentary will go through these one at a time. I find it important to note the modelling is unrealistic, serves to spread unwarranted fear in the Canadian population, and a breach of the trust placed in the Government of Canada by all Canadian citizens.

Canada’s COVID-19 Modeling

[i]

Fatality and Nursing Homes

Over 80% of all Sars-Cov-2 deaths in Canada are from Long term Care (“LTC”) and nursing home facilities[ii]. The inhabitants of these facilities are the oldest and weakest among the population.  In fact, only wealthy populations have extensive LTC communities which are mainly in Europe and North America.  Over 50% of Sars-Cov-2 fatality in the US and Europe are from these facilities[iii][iv].

The spread in these facilities is nosocomial. Meaning, not random population spread but a contagious virus dropped into a closed environment that then rips through the residents and staff[v],[vi].  These were all belatedly protected and we tragically saw the results of this inaction.  Random spread can have no relationship to LTC spread if proper policy and funding is in place. It is important to note that the Canadian government modelers openly reference non-random influenza spread from a 2017 paper, but do not account for this in their modeling.  This is completely inconsistent.

Having said that, any model that does not account separately for LTC spread and LTC fatality is simply a failure in illustrating the complete picture of the virus.  The single largest source of risk and fatality not being broken out means this Canadian model has no ability to properly project fatality.

“Conclusions. Our study revealed a highly structured contact and movement patterns within the LTCF. Accounting for this structure—instead of assuming randomness—in decision analytic methods can result in substantially different predictions.” (https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X17708564)

Infectious Fatality Rate (“IFR”)

IFR is simply defined as one risk of dying if infected and is not to be confused with Case Fatality Rate (“CFR”) which divides fatality by confirmed cases.  CFR is an irrelevant statistic unless testing rate is relatively constant.  The CFR misrepresents the danger of the virus. Incidentally, a corollary is new case counts that do not predict new fatality which sounds like a paradox but is statistically true. Unfortunately, the media is obsessed with case counts, but they are the least valuable statistic in describing the state of spread currently available, including the danger of the virus. 

IFR varies by age and this is universal to all countries[vii]. All Canadian Government models[viii] have used an IFR of 1.2% – or 15x the true non-LTC Sars-Cov-2 risk, despite very strong evidence in March that its was 0.1% – 0.35%, or, near the flu.  Even the CDC when adjusted for asymptomatic infection has IFR 0.1%-0.35% inclusive of LTC fatality.  Recently Alberta concluded its antibody study.  Based on the results alone, the IFR in Alberta at the time as ~0.35%, however 75% of those fatalities were LTC[ix]. Non-LTC IFR is 0.08% – which is 50% less risky than the common influenza[x]

For the general population, the Canadian Government models intended to dictate health policy say the virus is 17X more deadly than reality – which is misleading and instills an unwarranted fear in Canadian citizens.

Canadian Government Estimates (per million) of Hospitalisations, ICUs, and Fatalities vs Alberta Serology Based Actual Percentages (Ex-LTC)  

A true predictive model would break out IFR by age and separately break out LTC fatality[xi].  The LTC break out is important – an Ontario government study concluded an LTC resident was 13x more likely to die than the same age non-LTC resident.

Serology studies in Africa and India – with poor health care relative to Canada show IFR’s 0.005% – 0.06%.  These younger populations with no LTC community have virtually no risk to dying despite little access to treatment.

No Canadian government model has performed this basic and necessary inclusion – which causes the modelling to be inaccurate and overstates the severity of the virus.

R0 Assumptions

R0 and R(t) are measurements on rate of viral spread.  R0 is the rate of spread assuming no existing interactions with Sars-Cov-2, while R(t) which goes down over time adjusted R(0) for infected, recovered and dead.

The newest model uses R0 of 2.9, 3.3 and 3.7.  These are results from old studies in hyperdense China.  Side note, Canadian modeling only references old Chinese studies (dated) and the Imperial College/Neal Ferguson study (model failure) while excluding newer and more accurate studies. Models are a tool that require accurate inputs to accurately assess risk.  The use of inaccurate inputs leads to inaccurate outputs.[xii],[xiii],[xiv].

Canadian R0, given our lower density (hence lower transmissible interactions) is about 2.0 nationally while early in the spread.  There is tremendous supporting documentation/evidence of this, and it is unclear why the Government would only allow a lower bound almost 50% higher than actual and an upper bound almost 100% more.

The misuse of the R0 variable is another main driver – like the similar failed Imperial College model before it – the new Canadian model does not replicate spread in places like Florida or Sweden.  It dramatically overestimates real life outcomes and should be compared against reality before providing outcomes to the public that cannot possibly happen under any scenario.

I’ll revisit R0 when discussing heterogeneity below.

Infectious period

There are multiple studies that the maximum infectious period of Sars-Cov-2 is about 8 days (known since early March)[xv].  The average time an infected person can infect another is about 4 days with a maximum of 8.  The Canadian government model assumes an average of 10 days – which does not align with observable data. There is no science behind this assumption but has the effect of magnifying model spread and generating unnecessary fear.

Heterogeneity of Spread, Herd Immunity and the Function of T-cells

Herd Immunity Threshold (“HIT”) is defined as the point at which spread can only decay lower i.e. R(t) < 1 permanently[xvi].  Using basic math, HIT is reached when 1-1/R0 of the population is infected.  If R0 is 2.0 – then 50% is HIT, if its 3.3 then ~70% need to be infected.  But this isn’t true in the real world.

The main (and inaccurate) assumption is that everyone mixes perfectly – a concept called homogeneity. Using an analogy, the Canadian model assumes a bartender at a popular restaurant in downtown Toronto interacts with others the same about in a week as a person living alone in a cabin in the Yukon.  The variation in interactions is called heterogeneity – uneven mixing.  Uneven mixing lowers HIT.  A lot.  To assume mixing is equal across all people in Canada is the absolute worst-case scenario mathematically possible.

There are various ways to model heterogeneity, but Dr. Tam’s group explicitly ignores its existence in a government model intended to guide policy[xvii]. They have decided to model only the worst case.  Heterogeneity lowers R0 over time as highly interactive individuals spread the virus early and then become blockers – slowing the spread and lowering R0 and R(t).  This is one large factor why Sweden[xviii] and other places have reached HIT when looking at their spread at far, far lower levels than this misguided Canadian model.

Heterogeneity is easily evidenced and can be partially quantified by the far higher spread in cities vs rural settings all over the world[xix],[xx].  Not accounting for these concepts – which are easily incorporated – is a breach of trust to Canadian citizens relying on knowledgeable health experts to provide accurate information. 

Another related factor is T-cell immunity, a growing and popular area of research.  It is not without contestation that Sars-Cov-2 is NOT “novel”; i.e. no one has existing defenses[xxi],[xxii],[xxiii].

  • In February (Singapore), Sars-Cov-1 patients showed 100% immunity to Sars-Cov-2 despite being infected 17 years ago. 
  • We know that common cold coronavirus is cross reactive to Sars-Cov-2 initiating a T-cell response and destroying the virus[xxiv]
  • T-cell protection does not create IgG antibodies (what antibody tests measure), but IgG antibodies create long term T-cell protection in at least 83% of cases. Antibody decay translates to long term immunity[xxv],[xxvi].
  • T-cell protected persons get the virus but almost always fight it off. They show positive on PCR test but not antibody tests.  Studies show on average 1.8x as PCR positive but antibody negative – meaning the virus has spread possibly 1.8x more than antibody tests alone imply.  This translates into lower IFR; meaning the virus is even far less deadly than the flu.

The new government model does not even bother to address to existence of T-cell immunity despite its widespread acceptance in the medical community – which further compounds the inaccuracy of the model used to derive policy. 

Conclusion

These new model outcomes have no basis in reality and should not be used for policy planning.  Better and more accurate models do exist, but it is unclear why the Canadian government does not use them.  This new model is beyond worst case – it is an impossibility like the models before it.  It is intended only as a counterfactual. Furthermore, it has been paid for by Canadian taxpayers, who’s trust has been which depend on accurate information.  Although I would prefer it were not true, I believe the model is being used purely as a preplanned counterfactual defense to Dr. Tam and her group’s expensive and mostly ineffective policy actions. 

The most likely outcome in Canada assuming no lockdown is 10-15% antibody spread or 18-28% true spread including T-cells and about 4,000-8,000 non-LTC residents fatalities from Sars-Cov-2 (government estimate in April – 300,000).  It is unclear that any interventions beyond full lockdowns have any material effect to slow viral spread; and full lockdown have tremendous cost.  In fact, it’s very debatable that lockdowns have any net positive effect on fatality. The idea of ‘better safe than sorry’ policies undertaken not just by Canada, but other countries, are starting to show irreparable damage to citizens. This could be due to damage to the economic livelihoods of the citizenry, increases in mental illness, drug abuse, child abuse, incremental global famine, child development, etc[xxvii]. This is largely due to poor information communication, lack of education on the subject matter, and a lack of putting statistics into real world context. This only instills fear which can illicit irrational, sometimes dangerous behavior by citizens. I need not get into examples of what fear and irrational behavior can do within a society historically as there are countless amounts of them[xxviii]. To put it into graphical context, Franklin Templeton put out a survey to gauge fear of death from Sars-Cov-2 among all age groups. 

Is this rational thought? Is this how we want people to live their daily lives? Between the ages of 18-64, there are a great many other things that have a higher chance of causing death outside of Sars-Cov-2. Not to mention people who are already struggling hard with mental illness. Many people who struggle with addiction depend so much on having structure, going to school/job, having hobby’s, meeting with friends etc. Video conferencing does very little for those who struggle with addiction. By enforcing isolationist policies, the biggest support of having ‘normality’ in their daily lives is eliminated and thus take a part in destroying the foundation of any form of happiness. What if they also have families, what if the person they depend on for their livelihood is the one that struggles with addiction? There are an estimated 2 million people who subscribe to Alcoholics Anonymous[xxix], and these are those who admit that they have a problem. If even 10% of them completely lose control of their lives because of these ill-conceived policies, that’s 200,000 people minimum who have their livelihoods destroyed with very little means to recover.

Granted, masks, basic social distancing, hand washing all may have an effect, but they appear to be less effective than we have been led to believe by the Canadian government. Most spread can be explained be reasonable heterogeneity models and T-cell immunity

The single best NPI the Canadian government can do is to open borders with no restriction to herd immune countries (Sweden, US, India, Mexico, France, and Brazil among others).  Canada will import lots of immune “blockers” and almost no live infections.  These blockers will serve to reduce R0 and R(t) – a concept easily modeled.  This single action is an order of magnitude more helpful in slowing spread permanently than masks, further lockdowns or even handwashing.  It is permanent and has the effect of positive economic and social benefit (all other NPI’s are varying degrees of negative).

We should all implore Dr. Tam and our highly compensated health experts to incorporate widely available empirical evidence to provide projections that accurately represent the risk of Sars-Cov-2 to Canadians.  Its very probable that the true outcome of such work will demonstrate the risk from Sars-Cov-2 was not and is not severe, outside of nursing homes. The work is also likely to show all the interventions, costs, and fear to slow its inevitable spread was not necessary.  Yes, it would be a devasting blow to Dr. Tam and our government’s reputation, but the good of Canadians is what matters. The current model has no basis in reality and has constituted a breach of the trust placed in Dr. Tam by the Canadian citizenry. 

I will reiterate, I prefer it were not true, but building such an obviously counterfactual model so Dr. Tam can later point to the outcomes being better than the model and say “see, I saved lives” seems to be the only point of the modelling exercise. This serves nothing but to instill unwarranted fear in the citizenry and provide a façade of competency in government policy.

Its disappointing that a knowledgeable individual such as Dr. Tam, whose expertise include infectious disease, would allow this model to be released.


End Notes (References):

[i] https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid19-pandemic-modelling-tam-fall-peak-1.5686250

[ii] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-new-data-show-canada-ranks-among-worlds-worst-for-ltc-deaths/

[iii] https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.22.2000956#html_fulltext

[iv] https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-deaths-in-u-s-nursing-long-term-care-facilities-top-50-000-11592306919

[v] http://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-13-europe-npi-impact/

[vi] https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X17708564

[vii] https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

[viii] https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/reports-publications/canada-communicable-disease-report-ccdr/monthly-issue/2020-46/issue-6-june-4-2020/predictive-modelling-covid-19-canada.html

[ix] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/covid-19-deaths-long-term-care-cihi-1.5626821#:~:text=The%20analysis%20found%20537%20confirmed,per%20cent%20of%20total%20deaths.

[x] https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/about-36000-albertans-had-covid-19-by-mid-may-new-serology-testing-suggests

[xi] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3

[xii] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/imperial-college-covid19-npi-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[xiii] https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.200476

[xiv] https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7

[xv] https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-0504

[xvi] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140814v2

[xvii] https://globalnews.ca/news/7249803/coronavirus-vaccine-restrictions-theresa-tam/

[xviii] https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1.full.pdf

[xix] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3

[xx] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1

[xxi] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

[xxii] https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1

[xxiii] https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871

[xxiv] https://www.livescience.com/common-cold-coronaviruses-t-cells-covid-19-immunity.html

[xxv] https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871

[xxvi] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9

[xxvii] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173302v1

[xxviii] https://www.franklintempletonnordic.com/investor/article?contentPath=html/ftthinks/common/cio-views/on-my-mind-they-blinded-us-from-science.html

[xxix] https://www.aa.org/pages/en_US/aa-around-the-world

129 thoughts on “Heads I Win Tails You Lose: The Canadian Pandemic Model

  1. Hi everyone. Jumping on to answer questions the best I can as a first time poster for an hour or so.

    A few notes. I work at a private investment company. I posted this only out of personal interest because we do a huge, huge amount of Covid research and modeling. The Canadian government work is rightfully frustrating.

    Otherwise I’m here to talk about Sars-Covd-2/Covid/C19 models. Our modeling is proprietary (shareholders pay for the work and it belongs to them) but I can provide summaries.

    • Hi Brian, can you comment on my following posts please?
      There is increasing evidence that the full-Gulag lockdown for Covid-19 was a deliberate scam.
      This bogus alarmist analysis for the Canadian government further supports the scam hypothesis.

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/23/president-trump-accuses-fda-deep-state-of-delaying-the-coronavirus-vaccine/#comment-3067915

      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/23/president-trump-accuses-fda-deep-state-of-delaying-the-coronavirus-vaccine/#comment-3068197

        • SUMMARY OF MY RECENT COMMENTS:

          Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam followed the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommendations for the Covid-19 full-Gulag lockdown. The WHO is a willing servant of Marxist extremists probably including the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), as evidenced below. That is why President Trump recently defunded the WHO.

          The WHO greatly exaggerated the severity of the Covid-19 flu, and almost all countries except Sweden bought the WHO’s Big Lie, did the full-Gulag lockdown and trashed their economies – even though Covid-19 was much less dangerous to the working population that seasonal flu’s like that of 2017-2018. The full-Gulag lockdown for Covid-19 was unnecessary, a multi-trillion dollar failure that did not save lives.

          Sweden did not do the lockdown, took simple precautions, performed better than many other countries and has now achieved herd immunity.
          https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

          Here is just some of the evidence that the WHO is running a Marxist scam:

          The WHO recently promoted the “shotgun marriage” of Covid-19 and Climate Change as described below – this utterly irrational correlation further suggests that the WHO is under the control of Marxist forces, and supports the contention that the full-Gulag lockdown was not an error, but a deliberate scam.

          Why this conclusion? Because Covid-19 and Climate Change are NOT even remotely related, and no rational person could be so stupid to suggest they are. Note also that climate activists have certainly been this deliberately, aggressively stupid for decades – that is their standard tactic to shout down the many credible disproofs of their false global warming (CAGW) narrative.

          THE GREAT RESET: WHO DECLARES ‘WE CANNOT GO BACK TO THE WAY THINGS WERE’ – WHO DIR-GEN: ‘COVID-19 HAS GIVEN NEW IMPETUS TO THE NEED TO ACCELERATE EFFORTS TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE’
          climatedepot.com/2020/08/23/who-warns-coronavirus-vaccine-alone-wont-end-pandemic-we-cannot-go-back-to-the-way-things-were-in-particular-the-covid-19-pandemic-has-given-new-impetus-to-the-need-to-accelerate-efforts/
          WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus during a news conference from the agency’s Geneva headquarters:
          “In particular, the Covid-19 pandemic has given new impetus to the need to accelerate efforts to respond to climate change. The Covid-19 pandemic has given us a glimpse of our world as it could be: cleaner skies and rivers.”
          Marc Morano comments: “You were warned, COVID & Climate – A marriage made in authoritarianism. The morphing of the public health bureaucracy and the climate establishment is at hand. Nothing good can come from this arranged marriage.”

          MORE EVIDENCE that the Covid-19 flu was not all that dangerous, and the full-Gulag lockdown was UNnecessary – the cure was far worse than the disease:

          GERMAN OFFICIAL LEAKS REPORT DENOUNCING CORONA AS ‘A GLOBAL FALSE ALARM’
          Daniele Pozzati, May 29, 2020
          strategic-culture.org/news/2020/05/29/german-official-leaks-report-denouncing-corona-as-global-false-alarm/

          COUNTERING THE SECOND WAVE WITH FACTS, NOT MISCONCEPTIONS
          By: Udi Qimron, Uri Gavish, Eyal Shahar, Michael Levitt, July 2020
          dropbox.com/s/72hi9jfcqfct1n9/Haaretz-20Jul20_ENGLISH%2012082020%20v3.pdf?dl=0

          MY ASSESSMENTS OF 21&22MARCH 2020
          wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/21/to-save-our-economy-roll-out-antibody-testing-alongside-the-active-virus-testing/#comment-2943724
          21Mar2020
          LET’S CONSIDER AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH:
          Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five.
          This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.
          rosebyanyothernameblog.wordpress.com/2020/03/21/end-the-american-lockdown/comment-page-1/#comment-12253
          22Mar2020
          This full-lockdown scenario is especially hurting service sector businesses and their minimum-wage employees – young people are telling me they are “financially under the bus”. The young are being destroyed to protect us over-65’s. A far better solution is to get them back to work and let us oldies keep our distance, and get “herd immunity” established ASAP – in months not years. Then we will all be safe again.

          PLANDEMIC OR SCAMDEMIC?
          youtu.be/X6pzXrEBqR0

          • Take a look at this.

            08-26-2020 Coronavirus Pandemic Statistics

            World’s estimated population: … 7,800,000,000 billion
            U.S.’s estimated population: ……… 331,002,651million = 4.24%

            World confirmed Covid-19 cases: … 23,930,649
            World confirmed Covid-19 deaths: …… 820,286 = 3.42%

            U.S. confirmed Covid-19 cases: …… 5,780,141
            U.S. confirmed Covid-19 deaths: ……. 178,535 = 3.08%

            World confirmed Covid-19 cases: … 23,930,649
            U.S. confirmed Covid-19 cases: …….. 5,780,141 = 24.10%

            World’s confirmed Covid-19 deaths: … 820,286
            U.S.’s confirmed Covid-19 deaths: …… 178,535 = 21.76%

          • Didn’t anyone think the above statistics were quite remarkable due to the fact that the United States only has 4.24% of the world’s estimated population …… but has 24.10% of the world confirmed Covid-19 cases ……. and 21.76% of the World’s confirmed Covid-19 deaths?

          • Not at all – cases are a function of number of tests – some countries do many tests, some do few.

            Total death stats are helpful. Covid death stats less so, because of the false reporting. In the USA, people who die in motorcycle accidents and skydiving bounces are counted as Covid deaths.

            Herd immunity is how every flu in the history of humanity has died out. If all this imbecilic masking and social distancing never happened, we would all be better off – herd immunity would have been achieved by now.

            Remember that the masks and distancing were to reduce the “tsunami of Covid cases that would overwhelm our hospitals”, a flood that never came close to happening. In Calgary, on 600-bed hospital was almost shut down in preparation for Covid, and had a maximum of six cases, more typically two or three at any one time. That was the situation all over North America. A huge and costly over-reaction to a relatively mild flu – a debacle..

          • Covid-19 was a relatively mild flu that was ~only dangerous for the elderly and infirm – there was no justification for the full-Gulag lockdown of children and the workforce – that lockdown was a needless and destructive over-reaction that cost many trillions of dollars and harmed billions of lives.

            I published that conclusion on 21March2020 and it is now accepted as correct by competent medical personnel. Here is one of many supporting examples:
            GERMAN OFFICIAL LEAKS REPORT DENOUNCING CORONA AS ‘A GLOBAL FALSE ALARM’
            Daniele Pozzati, May 29, 2020
            https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/05/29/german-official-leaks-report-denouncing-corona-as-global-false-alarm/

            Covid deaths in the USA peaked on 16April2020 and in Canada on 1May2020. We do NOT need a vaccine – the Covid flu will die out like every other flu in human history, when herd immunity is reached, All the lockdown did was extend the time before herd immunity is reached, probably increasing the death toll and increasing the risk that Covid will extend into next year’s flu season.

            Sweden did it mostly right – most other countries including the USA, UK and Canada did it mostly wrong.

            The only remaining question is: Was the full-Gulag lockdown a costly error or a deliberate scam?

            It is difficult to believe that trained epidemiologists and other medical personnel could be this stupid – that observation supports the hypo that the full-Gulag lockdown was a deliberate scam, probably led by the WHO and supported by leftist elements in many countries. These would be the same people who said that HCQ did not work to reduce Covid mortality, and falsified information to support that lie, causing many needless deaths.

            PLANDEMIC OR SCAMDEMIC? Watch this video.
            https://youtu.be/X6pzXrEBqR0

          • Samuel C Cogar –
            The transmission of the coronavirus is also very related to travel.
            Countries with lots of international travel were afflicted with the virus first. The peak numbers of coronavirus deaths were in China, Europe, and the U.S. not long after the virus hit. Now, as the exposure to the virus has spread, the increasing numbers of virus deaths are in places like South America as the virus has had time to spread there and the deaths have dropped significantly in the places it hit earlier.

      • Allan,
        we should never underestimate the power of do-gooders to come up with over-the-top solutions to hypothesized problems.

  2. Meh. I’m getting tired of the WuFlu. It’s getting to be old news, I’m becoming numb. I want to know what the next great disaster to keep me in fear and terror is going to be.

      • That’s Harris/Biden ticket! She was chosen to be the Trojan Harris for seizing the presidency without having to answer endless questions and debate what policies the voting public prefers!

      • Agreed – the election of Biden/Harris would mean the last bastion of freedom has fallen – Canada, Australia, the UK and continental Europe have already fallen, and are far down the Marxist “Road to Venezuela”.

        Excerpt from the article:
        “I find it important to note the modelling is unrealistic, serves to spread unwarranted fear in the Canadian population, and a breach of the trust placed in the Government of Canada by all Canadian citizens.”

        No rational Canadian should have any trust in Trudeau’s traitorous government – he has already economically destroyed the country.

        • “Biden/Harris would mean the last bastion of freedom has fallen – Canada, Australia, the UK and continental Europe have already fallen, and are far down the Marxist “Road to Venezuela”.

          I weep at the thought but it is true, the U.S. is the last refuge for freedom. The America that the DNC has planned for us as revealed last week is no place I want to live, but there is no where else to go. Tiffany Trump said it well at the RNC and resonates with me, an expat in the Philippines.

        • How many rational Canadians are there? During the SNC-Lavalin scandal a majority of MPs chose to ignore what was clearly a criminal conspiracy by the PM, the Finance Minister, the Clerk of the Privy Council and their staff to obtruct justice. The Canadian news media appeared to buy the “justification” that their conspiracy was well-intentioned. Goebbels would have approved. Stalin would have laughed “me too”.

          Where was the outrage at the leaders of the country brazenly breaking the law ? The fired Justice Minister (probably installed as such precisely to be the patsy, should things go wrong) maintaining that no law had been broken did not evoke even a snicker in the media.

          That was the time to cut out the rot, and rid the country of a whole boatload of Liberal toadies in one fell swoop. But, no. The Bloc didn’t want to risk its cushy seats, the NDP was warm and fuzzy in the government’s lap. And the public, and most especially, the legal ‘profession’, just forgot about equality before the law. Retired Supreme Court judges lined up with their hands out to advise the conspirators how to spin their crime.

          Realistically, Wexit has a better chance of creating a country than Canada has of remaining one. Too many pigs at the trough.

        • Have you been watching the coverage of the riots? I live in Portland, and smarmy, disgusting stain on a Nazi mattress named Andy Campbell – senior editor from Huff Po – literally wrote a story, brazenly casting rioters who have been attacking cops and burning down buildings EVERY NIGHT for three months as ‘peaceful’, while claiming the local cops have ‘all but given up’ on stopping ‘right-wing extremist violence’ – which is absolutely non-existent, barring a couple instances of well-warranted self-defense against genuine fascists.

          I gotta tell you, anyone that remains a progressive in this environment is utterly detestable and beneath contempt.

  3. The older people who know history and may have wisdom are the target. Easy to rewrite history and conform the younger population into what you want them to feel and think.

  4. I live in Hamilton, a city of just over half a million and there are less than 5 people in the hospital. There is no institutional outbreak and there hasn’t been a covid death in the last month. Yet we have a mask mandate that I am totally ignoring. The world has lost its mind.

    • There is a very good chance that Canada will have an increased outbreak before the end of the year. Its one of the few countries left that isn’t near or past herd immunity thresholds. Fortunately, if LTC facilities are properly protected it will come and go in 6 weeks with minimal fatality. Regardless of NPIs like masks.

      • To Brian
        Thank you for your excellent article with all your documentation.
        I am tired of “listen to the scientists”.

      • Jast last week I attempted to visit my son in Edmonton. I drove to the border at East Portal and was the only car in line. Since I am a Canadian Citizen they can’t deny me access but they do have a two week quarantine in place. You either stay in a room by yourself with no contact or go to a hotel at the governments expense. If I came into contact in any way with my son HE would be locked down as well. I decided to turn back.
        By the way, lots of Uhaul trucks and trailers leaving the Portland area.

        • Hi Michael,

          As of this morning the US dropped 14 day quarantine recommendations for overseas travel and “hotspots”.

          https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/travel-during-covid19.html?_ga=2.251087238.1007758487.1598365796-2139388360.1596641651

          As I mention in the article, Canada opening its borders would be the best thing it can do to slow spread. Unfortunately the poor modeling work by Canadian institutions misrepresent true herd immunity outcomes. As such the border remains closed longer, the spread when it comes will be worse and has the added benefit of being significantly negative economically.

          The modelers are aware of the concepts of heterogeneity (their summary specifically reference it exists but do not use it), but refuse and cannot implement them.

          • Well, there’s no blanket national quarantine now, but individual states may still have their own, so check before you travel.

    • Hi matthew I live in Essex the last part of the province to get to stage three. A man died two days ago in long term care and he was the first death in close to a month bringing he total to 72 deaths since they started counting about six months ago . Totally ridiculous.

    • But we were told masks are not only no good but possibly dangerous. Are we supposed to unquestionably believe Big Sister Tam and her Modelling Monke.

  5. Are they making any recommendations for people to boost their immune systems via vitamin and mineral supplements?

    • Nicholas will be along any minute to tell you to stop with your draconian measures. He wants you on a ventilator if worrying doesn’t help. Then after you are dead he will sprinkle HCQ on you and proclaim “see it doesn’t work.”

    • You mean like “Basic Nutrient Prevention (daily)”

      Quercetin 15 mg
      EGCG (green tea) 325 mg
      Zinc 35 mg
      Vitamin D3 50 mcg (2000 IU)
      Vitamin C 970 mg

      No I haven’t seen it anywhere. No money in that.

  6. As a Canadian, I can see our esteemed leaders’ fingerprints all over this. Keeping us under his thumb until he can claim to be our savior.

  7. I am a Canadian who ‘lurks’ on this site frequently. I have no science background, but I like to read the opinions and articles and comments. I have been very worried about what is going on in Canada for a long time now, and the level of fear that people are demonstrating. I would like to share this article on facebook, but I don’t know who the author is… I know that as soon as I share it, my cousin who is a Dr. will jump on to say that nothing here is peer reviewed, etc, etc. Can you share the credentials of the author? Sorry, I just lurk here for my own information and I don’t know who “Brian” is…?

    • If it helps, the Canadian models are not peer reviewed either and I have submitted previous critiques with cmaj.ca on both previous Canadian models and Ontario models. Previous versions shouldn’t pass peer review anyways.

      The key IFR data is public arithmetic and the concepts are all cited in references to 3rd party papers – there are far more papers on each of these topics so I’ve only cited a subset.

      • Thank you. There was no critique of your analysis intended. I’ve been looking at different sites, like Worldometers, and the Ont. data, and it all largely agrees with the main thrust of what you are saying. I just know that we Canadians have a ‘believe the experts’ mentality. It’s very frustrating. Not that ‘expert’ information is not valuable. Just that we the public do not demand anything from them. We don’t ask them to give us lay person explanations or to see contrary information. “You said it, it must be so!”

        The reason I asked is more because some people will link here, see “guest post by Brian” and immediately leave with “this is anonymous from a conspiracy site,’ without even getting to the data. It’s not very open minded, but I kind of understand the thinking. We are flooded with all sorts of conspiracy thinking and Youtube ‘Drs” are all over the place saying things. I saw a Youtube video recently of a ‘dr.’ who said that Monsanto was going to be able to own people who get their new vaccine because the vaccine changed your dna and Monsanto already had patents on dna for things like soybeans. So I kind of understand the skepticism, even while it’s frustrating they don’t look at the data themselves, or use the same skepticism on ‘the authorities.”

        Anyway, thank you! I’m glad someone is doing this kind of analysis.

        • No problem at all.

          On a larger scale I would estimate globally (excluding China – that country is a total guess) there has been about 2bn infections to date with India and Africa alone accounting for almost 1bn alone. Most of the world is at HIT. Which makes Canada’s approach so frustrating.

          There are about 800k fatalities total, and about 500k fatalities outside of nursing homes, so you can back out global IFR.

          Even on Worldometers you can see the decline starting in global fatality (reported deaths are the biggest lagging indicator of spread). It is almost certainly decaying permanently to zero

          • Brian,
            I would love to know where you get your estimate of 2 billion infections to date.
            The WHO is reporting about 23 million so your estimate is that there is 100 more infections for every one that is reported. Currently India and Africa combined have reported 5 million cases yet you are claiming that number should be 1 billion. So
            what evidence is there for underreporting on such a massive scale?

          • To Izaak below, I didn’t see a reply button. There are two ways:

            1. Gather seroprevalence and estimate spread base on antibody/PCR ratio. In India for example most seroprevalence data is between 20-30% meaning total infections are near 50% in cities, and 34% overall.
            2. You can piece together a total infection curve using PCR tests. As far as I know only one other group is doing this, but its fairly simple. A PCR test is a (biased) measure in time of spread. The more tests the more representative positive % is of true infection over a roughly three week period. Its converges at the rate of sqrt(# of tests) as per LLN. So we a curve of daily positive percentage and tests/million we can estimate a total infection curve (and current infected curve). Random PCR testing if available can be used to control the estimate.

            Both methods converge. I like the latter because it gets the people antibodies miss and its a detailed running timeline rather than antibodies which are a snapshot to based a forecast. With so much testing its more accurate.

            But I’m very comfortable with this method. Canada has about 2mm infections to date, the US near 110mm infections.

        • Karen Smith – August 25, 2020 at 8:41 am

          I just know that we Canadians have a ‘believe the experts’ mentality.

          Same belief like most everywhere else, …… only problem, ….. the false beliefs that “the claimed expert’ is an actual expert.

    • Peer review is very overrated. A considerable number of fraudulent studies have made it through peer review. It depends on your peers being honest and so many are not since their income depends on the lie.

      • If the person who does the peer review of an article had his or her name and professional situation stated at the bottom of the article, that person would be discredited if the article is later shown to be worthless. The problem is that in many instances there is no naming or comments by the reviewer and the journal editor also gets off scott-free for publishing rubbish. This hurts those who want to get meticulous and thorough work published but are rejected without explanations.

    • Karen

      Brian has posted an excellent article here. Are you aware of the UK lockdown sceptics site?

      https://lockdownsceptics.org/

      Whilst primarily oriented to the UK many of the articles are relevant elsewhere. They often have articles about Australia. They might be interested in this article from Brian

  8. It would the credibility if this article if we knew something about Brian.

    I will share this, in any event, but perhaps CTM could convince Brian to reveal himself.

    • I put a note at the top. It takes time to clear moderation if you haven’t posted here before apparently. Maybe CTM can vouch for me 🙂

    • Patrick,
      Brian quotes publicly available information and is obviously familiar with the subject. Why would we need his “reveal” to contemplate what he is saying ? I think it is admirable that he did not declare himself to be an “expert” in this field where “experts” sans past success declare themselves daily.

  9. It strikes me that the way this government study ignores the obvious main problem area – thè aged – is analagous to the way they ignore the main problem area in domestic violence – the indigenous.

    I reckon you’re right Brian. It’s all arse-covering.

      • Yes Joe – WOW!

        First Nations women are the stand-out victims of gutless government policy responses that pretend that d.v. is occurring at the same levels all across Canadian society, instead of ~ 90% of it being perpetrated in the First Nations communities.

        So if bureaucrats and politicians don’t publically accept this problem, they think they don’t have to intervene.

  10. Given the utter stupidity of our current government generally and particularly how they have responded to the “global warming crisis” up until now, there is no doubt in my mind that our government is enjoying this crisis. It has allowed our Glorious Leader to spend like a drunken sailor without having to explain himself in parliament and to ignore how he decimated our pandemic response systems in place before he arrived on the scene. What he has done to Canada is a total disgrace. If he stays in power much longer we’ll be making Venezeula look good. As for government scientists, anyone who does not “tow the line” is long gone. We have no scientists. We have only sycophants and butt kissers who are only interested in protecting their own hind ends and their cushy government jobs. So none of this surprizes me.

    • ” . . . spend like a drunken sailor without having to explain himself in parliament . . . ”

      What parliament?

      Trudeau thought parliament was an irritant that threatened him with some level of accountability, so he just shut it down.

      Vladimir, Kim and Xi sent him personal messages of congratulations, I reckon.
      (As would have “Uncle” Fidel, if he were still with us)

  11. I am no expert but I have been studying this intently and watch the data daily.
    I am concerned that parts of Canada, like Manitoba, maritimes and rural areas have had little exposure to the virus and may have a second wave, since they never really had the first one.
    I think that distancing and masks should have been dropped during the summer. I have no confidence in whatever crazy the measures government may take this fall.
    Funny thing; A city nearby is subsidizing the purchase of E-bikes in spite of the fact that government data shows that they are at least as deadly as CV for people under 50.

    • Billy,
      There’s a good chance that even the areas you mentioned have been exposed to the ChiCom-19 Virus!
      This bug, though deadly for the elderly and those with weak immune systems, rarely kills the young and healthy! In fact most people won’t even notice it as they will be asymptotic; perhaps due to T-cell immunity!

      • I hope you are right. It is very infectious.
        Small town and rural areas have small care homes and maybe not the most unhealthy cases, so that may have kept the numbers down. I have seen that old people with serious chronic disease often have to move to the bigger cities for the hospitals.

    • It would help a lot with the E-bikes if the drivers weren’t drunk and/or stoned while they are using them.

    • Sweden proved that the masks and distancing were never necessary. Covid-19 was a relatively mild flu, less dangerous than the 2017-1018 seasonal flu. Covid-19 was deadly ~only to the elderly and infirm. This conclusion was obvious to me by early March 2020, based on credible data from Asia. Out of an abundance of caution, I reviewed my analysis and published by 21March2020. That conclusion still stands as valid.

      wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/21/to-save-our-economy-roll-out-antibody-testing-alongside-the-active-virus-testing/#comment-2943724
      21Mar2020

      LET’S CONSIDER AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH:
      Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five.
      This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.

      rosebyanyothernameblog.wordpress.com/2020/03/21/end-the-american-lockdown/comment-page-1/#comment-12253
      22Mar2020

      This full-lockdown scenario is especially hurting service sector businesses and their minimum-wage employees – young people are telling me they are “financially under the bus”. The young are being destroyed to protect us over-65’s. A far better solution is to get them back to work and let us oldies keep our distance, and get “herd immunity” established ASAP – in months not years. Then we will all be safe again.

      • CERB has made not working very, very attractive. Many, many people are/have increased their income because of it. And anyone with half a brain who figures out how to work for cash (not too difficult!) can ‘cash’ in even more. People are not inherently ‘good’. People will do whatever is best for them. Others can take a hike.

        • Right you are, Mr. Ranta. The CERB is $2000 a month, and a large percentage (not that I know the exact figure) of the people who lost their jobs were making less than that working full time. Getting sent home to do as they pleased with no moral disapproval attached, and being paid more than they would have made if they worked probably suited a lot of those folks very well.

          I’m retired now, but I used to work in a carwash in Edmonton, and I have spoken to my old carwash pals who still work there. Sure enough, they were sent home for three months and got the CERB. They were delighted.

          I do think it kind of amusing that middle class people who can afford things like cars or frequent restaurant meals think that a reasonable threshold for a Canadian to live decently is more than many working poor make.

        • Have you all seen this very recent commentary from Tucker Carlson about constantly changing the ‘goal posts’? Now Tedros and Gates are connecting Covid-19 measures to climate change?

      • Told you so on 21Mar2020 – the Covid-19 full-Gulag lockdown was NOT justified – it was a relatively mild flu:

        GERMAN OFFICIAL LEAKS REPORT DENOUNCING CORONA AS ‘A GLOBAL FALSE ALARM’
        Daniele Pozzati

        May 29, 2020
        https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/05/29/german-official-leaks-report-denouncing-corona-as-global-false-alarm/

        Germany’s federal government and mainstream media are engaged in damage control after a report that challenges the established Corona narrative leaked from the interior ministry.
        Some of the report key passages are:
        • The dangerousness of Covid-19 was overestimated: probably at no point did the danger posed by the new virus go beyond the normal level.
        • The people who die from Corona are essentially those who would statistically die this year, because they have reached the end of their lives and their weakened bodies can no longer cope with any random everyday stress (including the approximately 150 viruses currently in circulation).
        • Worldwide, within a quarter of a year, there has been no more than 250,000 deaths from Covid-19, compared to 1.5 million deaths [25,100 in Germany] during the influenza wave 2017/18.
        • The danger is obviously no greater than that of many other viruses. There is no evidence that this was more than a false alarm.
        • A reproach could go along these lines: During the Corona crisis the State has proved itself as one of the biggest producers of Fake News.

    • Rural areas have much lower HIT thresholds due to heterogeneity. Basically there are fewer interaction where the virus can transmit and so its difficult to have significant distribution – the 99% of spread is from symptomatic people and even then for 4 days or so. Canada is fortunate in that regard.

      You see this evidenced in seroprevalence studies all over; cities have much higher spread (5-30x) than rural areas. And its completely ignored by Canadian models (which assume everyone interacts equally all the time).

      Its unlikely masks have much effect unless you are in prolonged contact with a symptomatic individual and the mask itself is N95 (CDC and NEJM recommendations).

  12. I live in Ottawa, a city of just over 1 million people. As of today (August 25), Ottawa Public Health reports all of 9 people hospitalized with the WuFlu, with zero in intensive care. There have been 3 deaths attributed to CV-19 since June 25 (2 months!) even though we know they don’t distinguish between “death from” and “death with”. The pandemic ended here months ago, but they’re on the verge of imposing more mask bylaws.

    • Its very likely the spread will increase again before the end of the year in Canada but as long as nursing homes are protected it won’t be dangerous. Almost everyone outside of a nursing home is at very low risk on average.

      New cases do not forecast new fatality – the statistical relationship is close to zero no matter what lag is used. Don’t be alarmed when cases rise – it means herd immunity is that much closer.

      • Yes ! Every time I see new cases break out in healthy populations like students I am happy as this means herd immunity is coming along nicely. It is same as flu except for at risk people.

    • Don’t comply, the government has no right to tell you what to wear. 99.7% of all cases of covid 19 recover and 80% don’t even know they have had it. Much like the flu. The truth will come out if they start antibody testing but as far as I know there is no antibody testing in Canada so I am not holding my breath.

    • Sorry Paul. Look to your history. On the way up, there WAS a point in the past where there was a different 9 people hospitalized with Covid 19. Same data value, but subsequent to that point, there were many more than 9 hospitalized. So what does a data point of 9 in hospital predict or signify?

      The current number hospitalized is not a measure of anything but the number of shedding infections in proximity to uninfected hosts say in the last month or 2.
      Starting at 9, if you then party like 1999, ride public transit, hang out at bar dances and take quick trips to places that have a lot more than 9 in hospital (USA?) .. you WILL within a month or so , also find more than 9 hospitalized. So.. if avoiding the Italian situation is your objective, certain behaviours and interventions are justified.
      On the other hand, if reaching herd immunity faster is the objective, then party on, but in this case you WILL find hospitals overwhelmed, a lot of citizens lying in the hospital hallways or suffocating at home and hospitals deferring treatment of other diseases while on the way to that immunity.

      These things are bad for reelection poll data.
      Ultimately, though, a trashed economy doesn’t help reelection chances either.

      The only logic behind all the so called interventions, is slowing the death rate to gain time for development and testing of a treatment or vaccine. At a certain point though, and you may have reached that point, the cost to the society and its future prosperity is judged not worth the gamble.
      As a member of the high risk cohort I haven’t reached that point.

      • I will never submit to a vaccine. Ever.

        There is already a treatment: one that is banned on social media everywhere because Orange Man Bad™.

      • Hi Lee. In regards to this:

        “if reaching herd immunity faster is the objective, then party on, but in this case you WILL find hospitals overwhelmed, a lot of citizens lying in the hospital hallways or suffocating at home and hospitals deferring treatment ”

        This is what the Canadian modeling implies, but the preponderance of evidence for Florida, Texas, Arizona – denser places than Canada – shows that this outcome is relatively unlikely . Our models for Canada show its near impossible even if all NPIs are removed.

        I understand this is a main point to justify intervention (or initially was) but there is little evidence in lower R0 countries that Sars-Cov-2 strains hospital resources beyond a bad flu season. In that case the NPI response should be closer to a bad flu season.

        • Ok Brian. I do hear you. You have models too and they account for different weightings of different population subsets. That sounds like a valid criticism of the government calculators.
          And, if I have skimmed correctly, you use them on Canada and find hospital beds in the country adequate to handle a surge of the size Canadians can reasonably expect based partly on data from Florida, Texas and Arizona.

          Do you, then, have any insight as to what was different in Italy (as their hospitals surely were overwhelmed) from a dense population subset like,say, Toronto( pop. 2.7 million) that in itself is not less dense than anywhere in Arizona( Phoenix most pop. at 1.6 million or maybe Texas ( Houston most pop at 2.3 million). ? (Population numbers from wiki so grains of salt provided).

          Brian, please accept my thanks for your posting . It is the kind of which you will never read in any government or mainstream medium in Canada, all them having gone Deep Progressive years ago and it is not radical, just analytical and well worth further study by readers. Your conclusion ( the intervention response should be commensurate with the expected strain on medical resources) is common sense not seen in our leaders for a long time.

          Lastly. Thank you for posting this very interesting information. To be honest I am more concerned about size of the moneybags our government is happily throwing of the back of pickup trucks the use that progressive politicians are preparing to make of this

          This is, in strict terms, untrue in large (very large) parts of Canada simply because there arent any ICUs of any size in those places. A very few cases, perhaps imported

          • No worries. There are a few points:

            1. Italy has a very old population – less low risk young, more high risk elderly. Using age brackets on IFR (non nursing home) shows that Italy would have roughly 2x the hospitalization and IFR rates as Canada. In northern Italy where the outbreak started it would be near 3.5x. I can run through the math if you’d like.

            2. When it broke out in Italy there was no immunity outside T-cells where as Canada has some spread now; maybe 5% of Canada has been infected. The Canadian spread is probably restricted to the highest transmitters which inherently slows the spread – the heterogeneity effect.

            3. Dense areas like Toronto are certain to have a Phoenix or Dallas like breakout event at some point. Neither of those cities had capacity problems not previously seen from flu pandemics, and neither had treatment issues. In the Phoenix case, the relatively large size of its LTC population is worth noting. NPIs will have little effect. Importing immune Americans will definitely help with Toronto’s inevitable outbreak however.

            Aside – expect further outbreaks to be unjustly blamed on “young people” not adhering to NPIs, rather than its just a virus being its insidious self.

            And finally, yes you are correct. The ticking time bomb of much higher taxes is a real thing. These expensive policies have little to no effect and cost a ton. That cost will be due in lower services and higher taxes eventually.

  13. Problem is anyone can throw up a bunch of nice looking graphs and equations and the sheeple automatically believe it.

  14. Brian,
    Wow! Great article and thank you for putting another HUGE nail in the coffin of this governmental power grab disguised as a scamdemic!
    My heart goes out to our neighbors to the north who are saddled with an incompetent @$$ for a leader and are seeing their jobs and freedoms being sold to China for pennies on the dollar!
    If Trump wins another four years in spite of DemoKKKrat cheating and voter fraud, he may finally be able to clean up enough of the crime and corruption in DC to stabilize our country and reverse the slide down into third world or failed nation status! Hopefully then we can start rescuing those who are enslaved by Progressivism; you know, the downtrodden peoples of CA, NY, Canada, et. al.

  15. Did the models account for the magical power of masks? Dr. Lam now seems to believe against all evidence that wearing a sock over your head will stop the spread of SARS 2. Clearly the model is replete with magical thinking and only Harry Potter can tell what it means.

  16. It is now clear that the politicians, media and “experts” can not admit the epic mistake that was made with lock downs. It is not just Canada but virtually every country that went that route. They would rather continue to trash billions of innocent lives then admit their mistake.

    “Prof. Udi Qimron:’History will judge the hysteria’

    Top Tel Aviv U prof says “There is a great interest for anyone who supported the draconian measures in saying Sweden’s policy has failed.”

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/285341

  17. Brian, excellent article. The model trotted out in Saskatchewan was, and still is, similarly ridiculous. It may be the same one. I pointed this out to the minister of health but they seem to stand by their ‘experts’ regardless of the poor advice they give. Unfortunately, it seems that this attitude carries on right down the line through local governments to institutions, shops etc. With 22 deaths allegedly due to CV-19, the IFR here is 0.002%. All elderly etc. Very heterogeneous, with half of the deaths in a couple of communities up north, and one third in Hutterite colonies down south. Interestingly, ‘flu transmission in Hutterite colonies has been studied for years, so not really a surprise.

    • Nice to see you use your usual sagacity on this subject too.
      Here in BC they have been expanding testing since the beginning of July, out of the blue, while there was no indication of any rise in people being hospitalized or a rise of the death stats.
      The new insane number of tests administered have resulted in more cases being found although 98% of people tested are negative.
      They now claim that it is the rise in cases that prompted the rise in testing which is a total lie, propagated happily by the local and national media.
      They still register a few deaths here and there but since they have banned hydroxychloroquine except in trials, it is expected.
      Worse, they did a trial back in April and it helped an old fellow 90 + recover. But nobody ever talks about it, including the very writer who brought the story to print.
      BC health is gathering lots of cases just to pretend they are facing a second attack of the virus and will demand people freedom restrictions…
      People who have been sick and to whom I spoke to are angry at the fake news coming out of the ministry. Only the terminally gullible believe their crap…

  18. Excellent Dissertation Brian,

    The following was not widely published, it was quoted in a CTV article a few weeks ago, Alberta Health Care (AHC) did some random anonymous serological testing for COVID antibodies on blood samples that had been taken for other purposes in early May. AHC estimated the overall Alberta population infection rate of COVID from that random testing and by comparing that estimate to the confirmed known positive cases from pcr test numbers over the same time period Alberta Health Care stated that they believed they were only finding 17% of infected individuals. That was the end of their statement but left unsaid was that it infers that 83% of infected people did not realize they had been infected and did not come forward for testing

    Canadas Chief Health officer Tam should have resigned when it was revealed that she had failed to execute on the the recommended actions for PPE purchases etc. resulting from the investigation of the 2002-4 SARS outbreak response in Canada.

    I consider her to be complicit in the (premature) deaths of the LTC inhabitants across Canada and if she had any principles or tenets she would step down. I think there has to have been a lot of rationalization going on in her mind and these model projections are just classic bureaucratic swamp creature diversionary tactics to obscure her culpability.

  19. The Marxist/Socialists are at the high point of their long end game. First infiltrate the governments with key players. Second control the media. Third divide. Next pick any crisis, real or manufactured, and splinter the populace with propaganda. Last pick up the pieces as “the savior” or “One World Government”. The division in the US over race and wealth is taking longer and may never happen because of the large prosperous middle class with all races taking part. The American dream may save us after all. This November will tell us what Americans really believe. In my county in the US the death rate from #19 is three hundredths of one percent yet the media has everyone frightened and at each other’s throats over masks and social distancing.

  20. So the author of the article defends a best case scenario to criticize the University of Manitoba worst case scenario. None of them is attached to reality so both can be described as fantasies.

    The evidence for the real situation comes from Spain, a country that has the dubious honor of being the worst affected country in Europe during the first wave, and is now the worst affected country in Europe during the second wave.

    So what are the real numbers from Spain? Population 47 million. 18 % of the population >64 years. Excess mortality during the first wave (weeks 10-23) 55,000.
    https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
    Percentage of the population that presented antibodies in the May study: 5.2%. It reached 11.4% in Madrid region.
    https://www.mscbs.gob.es/ciudadanos/ene-covid/docs/ESTUDIO_ENE-COVID19_SEGUNDA_RONDA_INFORME_PRELIMINAR.pdf

    So 2,400,000 Spaniards got infected and 55,000 of them died. That is a whooping 2.3% IFR. The official numbers are much lower but they are not to be trusted due to the political interest in keeping the awful numbers as low as possible.

    Why is the IFR number so high? COVID in Spain wrecked havoc in nursing homes killing over 50% of residents in some of them. Among survivors antibody presence is >80%. But this ain’t flu, folks. Not by a mile. I don’t believe those 0.35% IFR because there is a lot of deaths undercounting. The mortality monitoring system (MoMo) implemented to try to demonstrate deaths from climate change is the best way to count the excess deaths caused by COVID.

    The problem is the high level of infection in Spain has not provided an iota of herd immunity. We are having serious problems with the second wave despite mandatory face masks and restrictions to gatherings. Outbreaks are growing fast. Number of hospitalized patients is doubling every 1-2 weeks (versus 3 days in the first wave). Despite having halved R(0) or even more, it is still way above 1. Madrid region must be above 15 % immunity by now and no evidence of a slowing down. They are considering additional measures because it is growing very fast. They just forbade smoking in public, although a judge voided it on constitutional grounds.

    Today we know that three people have been confirmed reinfected. That bodes really bad for the possibility of getting an effective vaccine. If the disease doesn’t produce lasting immunity the chances that a vaccine will do are next to none.

    • Hi Javier.

      Spain early on was a severe outlier like NY/NJ in terms of fatality – perhaps from overuse of ventilators in treatment which is rarely used now. But taking one very bad data point and projecting it is dangerous. India has a huge amount of infection and few fatalities for example.

      Its important to note – and its in the references – that antibody data only underestimates true spread. Sometime quite dramatically depending on the reactive level of the antibody test. In Spain’s case the government use the Orient Gene test that was also used in Santa Clara and highly criticized. Antibody decay and T-cell protection can fight off immunity without generating antibodies. A decent rule of thumb from out work is true spread is 2x most recent antibody data.

      Spain has not reach herd immunity yet but current Spanish CFR (not IFR which is lower) is a mere 0.4% – among the lowest CFR in western society!! So in that respect the virus is now spreading in Spain much like Canada – with extremely low IFR. The earlier disaster in Spain is more likely attributed to LTC and overall poor treatment of non-LTC patients (not intentional, just lack of information at the time).

      • CFR can’t be trusted, since it depends on the number of tests you do.

        Antibody data gives a minimum value on the percentage of infected population. Is it possible that the infection rate in Spain reached 10 % in just a month before the lockdown and after 2 months of lockdown? Yes. That would reduce the IFR to 1.15, still three times the number you put as maximum. But the side effect is that Madrid reached 23 % immunity and as the second wave is showing, still no sign of significant herd immunity.

        These are solid numbers. Saying that Spain is an outlier and offering weak numbers from other countries is not scientifically sound. The conclusions are clear:

        1. This is an extremely contagious virus, complicated by the lack of symptoms of a large percentage of the population.
        2. It has a high mortality, much higher than the seasonal flu.
        3. Nobody knows when herd immunity can be reached, but clearly 15 % immunity does not provide it.
        4. It is doubtful that an effective long-lasting vaccine can be obtained.

        • CFR is a poor metric I agree, however by definition IFR is lower than CFR 100% of the time. While Spain had a very high IFR early in the spread (and was an outlier to its neighbors), its now very low and hence IFR even lower. What matters in policy is what can happen not necessary what has at a specific moment in time.

          I’d reiterate that north of 95% of the spread is from symptomatic individuals only. Asymptomatic spread is quite low based on existing research.

          At any rate, pulling out LTC fatality from the math, there isn’t much data to support IFR is higher than the flu other than taking the few very bad and very dated data points in March like Spain and some NE US states (which are now down below flu level IFR as well). Elsewhere – including Canada’s very detailed seroprevalence work – support ex-LTC mortality about 50% of the flu or lower. I’m not sure what else to say here. The data is overwhelming; I’m not sure I know of a spot that is currently higher.

          I’m interested as to why 15% seroprevalence isn’t where HIT can be reached. In many areas, including Canada thats likely the level burnout of the virus starts. Its higher in denser places.

          • there isn’t much data to support IFR is higher than the flu

            You are completely out of touch with reality. Look at this picture.
            It is an ice skating stadium in Madrid. It had to be used as an improvised morgue because they run out of space to put all the bodies. Something like this had not happened in Spain since the 1919 flu. And it was only a one month touch with COVID before the lockdown was established. Letting it run its course would have been catastrophic.

            You modelers don’t deserve any trust. You will say what is more convenient to you. The evidence and reality says otherwise. This is the worst pandemic in a century. In due time should lower life expectancy. Many young people ignoring the disease will die of it when old with a higher probability than from flu.

          • Question is: Is the body count in the ice rink because of the number of COVID deaths or because of backups in processing due to restrictive measures in response to COVID?

            I don’t know — I’m posing the question. What other reasons could cause bodies to pile up? I don’t want to jump to conclusions.

          • I’m interested as to why 15% seroprevalence isn’t where HIT can be reached.

            Because Soria region was the region with a highest seroprevalence in the May study, with 14.7 % seroprevalence. According to you that number has to be doubled because of the antibody test used.
            However since the end of July Soria is having 11-17 active outbreaks every day.
            https://www.desdesoria.es/2020/08/25/evolucion-de-los-brotes-de-covid-19-en-soria/

            So it appears that HIT is not reached even at 30% if you are right about our tests.

          • Robert, for the week 14 the reference number of deaths is 7,500 in Spain. That week in 2020 saw 20,600 deaths. The week before saw 19,200 deaths instead of 7,600.

            The system was not prepared to process such an excess of deaths day after day, week after week. Saying that this is like the flu is a bad joke.

            We have seen worse things in other countries where bodies were left at the street for days.

            Our governments failed us. They did nothing to prevent the arrival of the virus despite having a month advanced warning.

  21. Brian,

    Very interesting article. If you are still lurking here you might comment on a claim I will make. There is a rumor that the decrease in “death rates” from MArch/April to now is due the better care the ill get now (I suppose this is true if we include not being placed on a ventilator as first resort). However, I have calculated risk ratios based on age alone and find that these have not changed one iota. The risk ratio of the 80+ crowd I calculated for Colorado data and it is roughly 16 to 1. The only good reason I can find for the increasingly lower death rate is that the disease now infects mainly younger people. In colorado once again the peak of infection was early on in the 50-59 cohort, but has been since June in the 20-29 cohort. Do you see same? and I wonder if this indicates we are soon going to get into a slow-burn phase in most places?

    Second, jurisdictions keep fussing with data and its presentation, and the evolution is toward presentations that are less and less informative. Colorado used to let people sort cases by day of onset or by day of report, and the difference was quite startling. Their new data portal seems to have eliminated this option.

    Once again — nice work.

    • This is a bit tricky. The US publishes data on infection by age. We can see that younger age groups with lower risk have a higher percentage of positive tests than earlier in the spread. This was more reversion as earlier on older people were testing positive at a disproportionate rate to population. When adjusting for this in the US, the expected fatality vs positive percentage is about half of what it was in late March.

      This is different than median age of death however. There is much higher spread but not in the risky, basically. Outside of NY/NJ/RI/CT and maybe Spain I haven’t seen much change in treatment outcomes just infection outcomes.

      In terms of slow burn out, most countries are in that phase. The great thing about heterogeneity is big spreaders almost immediately become big blockers. 1% of the population might account for 15% of interactions. Once they become immune, spread is ~15% slower (roughly, the math is more interactive) even though 99% of people are still unexposed.

  22. Why won’t these medical journals tell the truth about hydroxychloroquine?

    We reported in June how the Lancet damaged its own reputation by publishing highly influential fake news on treatments for Covid-19. This was the most extraordinary example of fabricated propaganda planted in a prestige scientific journal. It was retracted only after multiple governments (and the WHO) had changed policy on hydroxychloroquine, achieving major impact from falsehoods.

    The NEJM was bound up with the same scandal, albeit less noticed. The same authors retracted another paper from it on the same day (June 4) as the Lancet’s fake news. The reason given was the same: the database was ‘unverifiable’. Bizarrely, this did not stop it reaching print on June 18, albeit with a retraction ‘banner’.

  23. Gilead: Twenty-one billion reasons to discredit hydroxychloroquine (ORIGINAL ARTICLE)

    Academic medical centers and scientists

    To compile all of the thousands of scientists and research institutions who have received funding from Gilead would take weeks of effort. However, it is noteworthy that some of the most vehement critics of hydroxychloroquine have conflicts of interest with Gilead. Just for example, in the New York Times feature He Was a Science Star. Then He Promoted a Questionable Cure for Covid-19, [30] all three scientists (Karine Lacombe, Christine Rouzioux, and Jean-Michel Molina) criticizing Dr. Raoult and his study are either on Gilead’s advisory board and/or received funding from Gilead. [31] [32] [33] Notably, the New York Times article fails to mention these conflicts of interest.
    Some other notable examples include Stanford University School of Medicine that conducted two clinical trials on remdesivir (one funded by the NIH and the other by Gilead); University of Alabama at Birmingham who received funding from the NIAID to develop remdesivir (of note, Dr. Richard Whitley, principal investigator of the $37.5 million dollar NIAID grant, is on the board of directors for Gilead).

    Conclusion
    Gilead’s influence over the process of clinical investigation and approval of therapeutics is undeniable. A direct threat to remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine has likely been in Gilead’s crosshairs for months.

    So less TDS but more the Gilead money

  24. The covid 19 virus is behaving like a flu virus.

    What happens to a flu virus after a winter epidemic?

    It would appear that during the summer it rips through the general population until heard immunity is attained. This period has been dubbed a casedemic

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU3OibcindQ

    The progression of an influenza virus has been known about for decades

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Transmission-Epidemic-Influenza-Clinical-Psychology/dp/0306440733

    expensive or what?

    • Richard and any other late lurkers,
      Gateway Pundit has a new article about how China used thousands of bogus Twitter accounts to influence politicians and nations to adopt the lockdown strategy they used in Wuhan!
      There is a Twitter thread where these accounts can be seen criticizing those advocating against lockdowns and praising those who fell for the scam! They started in Italy and then took on critics in the US, UK, Europe and Australia. This whole plandemic appears to have been an opening salvo in China’s war against the rest of the world!
      Twitter tried to delete the bogus accounts but was completely unable to deal with the volume the ChiComs employed for their disinformation campaign! Time to hold these criminals accountable!!

  25. Brian,

    Are you aware of Canadian population’s Vit. D deficiency and the connection between Covid and Vit D deficiency?

    Statistic Canada has taken blood samples from a representative sample of Canadians and found that 32% of the Canadian population on the average are deficient in Vit. D. Below is a direct copy from the Stat. Can web site data on the Canadian population’s, Vit D deficiency.

    40% of the Canadian population’s Vit D level is less than 20 ng/ml in the winter and only 25% in the summer.

    32% of the Canadian population have an active Vit. D blood serum level that is less than 20 ng/ml (US units) or less than 50 nmol/L (EU units).

    It has been shown that those Canadian citizens that have a Vit D blood serum level that is less than 20 ng/ml or 50 nmol/L have a 19 times greater chance of dying from covid or having serious organ.

    This Vit D deficiency finding explains why there are twice as many US blacks and UK blacks dying from covid than US general population.

    Vit. D enables our cells to access their copy of our DNA to build chemical producing modules. The chemical producing modules produce specialized chemicals to protect the cells, repair the cells, and maintain the cells.

    The percentage of our cells that get these chemical producing modules has been shown based on the cancer studies to be depend on the level of active Vit. D in our blood stream.

    So the internal cells of a person with a blood serum level that is less than 20 ng/ml would have less of the evolutionary developed chemical modules.

    This Vit D ‘theory’ explains why the death rate for flu changes seasonally. In the summer less of the population is Vit. D deficient.

    https://emerginnova.com/patterns-of-covid19-mortality-and-vitamin-d-an-indonesian-study/

    Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study

    Vitamin D Insufficient Patients 12.55 times more likely to die, blood serum 25(OH)D level from 21 to 29 ng/ml

    Vitamin D Deficient Patients 19.12 times more likely to die, Vitamin D blood serum level less than 20 ng/ml

    Vitamin D ‘normal’ for this study is 25(0H)D above 30 ng/ml.

    Canadians: Statistics Canada

    Highlights
    • Just over two-thirds of Canadians (68%) had blood concentrations of vitamin D over 50 nmol/L (above 20 ng/ml)—a level that is sufficient for healthy bones for most people. About 32% of Canadians were below the cut-off.
    • Children aged 3 to 5 had the highest rates above the cut-off (89%), while the 20- to 39-year-olds had the lowest (59%).
    • A minority of Canadians (34%) took a supplement containing vitamin D, but a larger percentage of those taking supplements were above the cut-off (85%), compared with non-supplement users (59%).
    • About 40% of Canadians were below the cut-off in winter, compared with 25% in the summer.
    • On average, females had a higher concentration of vitamin D in their blood than males.

    Chart Showing US Vit D Units ng/ml Vs EU Units nmol/l (same thing measured active Vit. D in blood stream)

    ng/ml nmol/l
    100 250
    90 225
    80 200
    70 175
    60 150
    50 125
    40 100
    30 75
    20 50
    10 25
    0 0

    • It is amazing to me how CDC doesn’t strongly suggest people get sufficient vitamin D. We he endlessly about masks and social distancing but no talk on basic nutrition.

    • Its out of my expertise but I have seen studies on Vitamin D and Vitamin D stimulation of T-cells. There was a study out of Singapore back in May that noted all serious infections had low Vitamin D levels for example. My background is on the maths and science side, not so much on biology. My comments won’t carry much weight I’m afraid.

      • Brian, I don’t know if you can address this question or not, but I was wondering what you made of the Lancet meta analysis of the efficacy of masks? I can’t understand it (as I am a lay person), but I was told that it was ‘the gold standard’ of studies and should lay to rest any doubts that masks can help stop the spread.

        Of course, I know how they goofed up on HCQ. What I could tell from the study was that it relied heavily on data for MERS as wells as SARS covid. I also was unable to figure out how the masks and distancing were inter-related with the study…

        I honestly want to wear a mask in situations where it would help. But I’ve seen so much misuse of masks. Also, I’d be happy to get covid and have it out of the way. The mask debate is as muddy as a crocodile infested river when you throw in a baby donkey…. argh.

        • The mask issue will continue to be debated. The Canadian “experts” blew it when they said masks were not necessary. They said it because the masks and other equipment was in short supply. So I really have no faith in experts by position of authority.
          re Lancet: after their retraction of the HCQ study I will not even waste my time reading Lancet.

        • The data on masks is not very compelling. If they worked really well then every place with mask policy would see no meaningful spread increase – obviously this has happened in numerous places.

          When spread is declining due to natural decay, you require a control group of unmasked areas at a similar point in the spread to compare. There is lots of data like this and its pretty clear masks have zero effect.

          Additionally, the studies themselves are mixed at best but most skew little to no effect. Some even net negative (masks may not work and people take risks they normally wouldn’t while wearing). My view is unless you have a N95 mask and other PPE avoid symptomatic people (since thats who spread Covid). Wear one if you want but its very probably a waste of time.

          @youyangu has several great threads

          • As of last week yu could not enter Walmart in our town without a mask. Now the pharmacies have followed suit. The level of fear is palpable. Of course any +’s will be blamed on the young and the non-conforming. Very divisive on top of the fear. I saw a silly chap out fishing alone in his little boat wearing a mask last week. And on top of this the govmint has just announced fines for parties in BC. Total lunacy.

    • YES!
      The pretend experts in Canada never talk about Vitamin D and HCQ. So to me they are politically motivated and medically incompetent. When I mention this Vitamin D deficiency, I get weird looks and comments questioning my medical knowledge. I do not need the knowledge, I have already read the real facts. I sent a letter to our Minister of Health about Vitamin D. I got a standard reply plus a comment that too much Vitamin D is no good. How many people have died from an overdose of |D??? In addition I wonder what treatment is being given in Canada. I bet not HCQ.

    • I totally agree with the recommendation that based on unbiased tests of the HCQ cocktail treatment, the early treatment HCQ cocktail treatment, is a lifesaver for those people who are severely Vit. D deficient and hence will suffer organ damage or death if they get covid and are not treated. See above.

      This HCQ cocktail issue is a political atomic bomb issue. Politicians will run for cover rather than risk going to jail.

      There is a point, when there is overwhelming real positive data…. …… when fake data to hide a highly effective treatment for covid, becomes a conspiracy to commit murder.

      Where is the Bill Gates Foundation? Where are the other ‘charitable’ organization? Has the US become third world corrupt? Does no one care for the people?

      “As professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, I have authored over 300 peer-reviewed publications and currently hold senior positions on the editorial boards of several leading journals.”

      “…. In the midst of a crisis, I am fighting for a treatment that the data fully support but which, for reasons having nothing to do with a correct understanding of the science, has been pushed to the sidelines.”

      “..As a result, tens of thousands of patients with COVID-19 are dying unnecessarily. Fortunately, the situation can be reversed easily and quickly.”

      Since publication of my May 27 article, seven more studies have demonstrated similar benefit.

      In a lengthy follow-up letter, also published by AJE, I discuss these seven studies and renew my call for the immediate early use of hydroxychloroquine in high-risk patients.

      These seven studies include: an additional 400 high-risk patients treated by Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, with zero deaths;

      four studies totaling almost 500 high-risk patients treated in nursing homes and clinics across the U.S., with no deaths;

      a controlled trial of more than 700 high-risk patients in Brazil, with significantly reduced risk of hospitalization and two deaths among 334 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine;

      and another study of 398 matched patients in France, also with significantly reduced hospitalization risk.

      Since my letter was published, even more doctors have reported to me their completely successful use.

    • There are too many people in power who stand to make money from the “approved” treatment – Rams something or other.

  26. Unfortunately, the established media in Canada is in on the misinformation. They publish daily articles about increased case numbers, but scrupulously omit the figures for hospitalization. The province of Manitoba has a population of 1.4 million, and there are seven (7) people in hospital with COVID-19 in Manitoba. Saskatchewan has a population of 1.2 million and there are five (5) people in hospital with COVID-19 in Saskatchewan. If the media would publish these figures it would immediately confound the notion that this is a serious health crisis. But they don’t. They speak of sharp increases in case numbers, with the implied threat that new case numbers must translate into more hospitalizations and death. Of course the increases in case numbers are in the young, so the hospitalization numbers won’t budge much.

    But yeah, it’s crooked. Once the people in charge, including the ranking media have made a mistake (and the reactions to the pandemic have been large and harmful mistakes), their priority then becomes to deny anyone the right to say they have made any mistakes. Which means more suppression of commerce, and more fearmongering by the media.

  27. Flash! Urgent read on Gateway Pundit!
    China used THOUSANDS of bogus Twitter accounts to push for the lockdown strategy they used in Wuhan! Twitter thread shows these accounts pushing people all over the world to accept lockdowns as the best means of slowing the spread!
    They started in Italy where the first big outbreak occurred; then worked on influencing experts in the US, UK, Europe and Australia! They even managed to get India, who is not an ally of China, to go along!
    This is a major story as it shows the ChiComs were willing to destroy the world economy for their sole benefit! The only allies they had were the bought and paid for servants and sycophants that supported the lockdowns in other nations!

  28. “HIT is reached when 1-1/R0 of the population is infected. If R0 is 2.0 – then 50% is HIT, if its 3.3 then ~70% need to be infected. But this isn’t true in the real world.” – Very true.

    In fact Dr Levitt et al are showing that it hasn’t got past 20% in any country before dying out. “Pre-Immunity” is about 80% if that turns out to be correct.

    Countering the Second Wave with Facts, not Misconceptions
    By: Udi Qimron, Uri Gavish, Eyal Shahar, Michael Levitt

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/72hi9jfcqfct1n9/Haaretz-20Jul20_ENGLISH%2012082020%20v3.pdf?dl=0

  29. Why do we call it “social distancing” when it is physical? 6 ft. or 2 m. is a physical measurement; learned in 9th grade science class.

    A mask, on the other hand, appears to be a social thing — makes those you encounter think you care about them. Learned in college that sociology is the study of group behavior.

    Finally, about half of USA folks and likely 90% (I just made that number up) of Canadians are short of Vitamin D.
    At least take a 2000 unit pill until you can get a test. Not because of this virus, but because your bodies need it. [ D3 and Zinc might help with this virus; and won’t hurt.]
    This last is a useful thing I learned with Panic2020.

    • Yes, and the “experts” are not mentioning Vitamin D.
      I note in today’s newspaper that the Canadian “expert” is warning is about misinformation about vaccines. I am impressed.

  30. Covid virus transmission depends on the age profile of the population, the prevalence of co-morbidities like diabetes, population density and housing type, climate, weather, number of international travellers and their country of origin, use of public transport, take-up of voluntary control measures like physical distancing and hand washing, and government response including border controls, quarantine procedures, and the full range of treatment modalities. Modelling that lot is about as ridiculous as modelling the climate.

  31. Brian,
    In your article, you state:
    “There are multiple studies that the maximum infectious period of Sars-Cov-2 is about 8 days (known since early March)[xv]. The average time an infected person can infect another is about 4 days with a maximum of 8. The Canadian government model assumes an average of 10 days – which does not align with observable data. There is no science behind this assumption but has the effect of magnifying model spread and generating unnecessary fear.”

    Unfortunately, your reference [xv] discusses incubation period which is something completely different. From what I’ve heard, the infectious period is MUCH longer than 10 days and overlaps the asymptomatic period where the virus is still incubating in the individual.

    You might want to check the terminology you are using and perhaps the conclusions drawn in this section.

    • There are a ton of studies on this topic; I only quoted the German because it was published early on. The CDC states from several studies its rare to see replication competent viral spread past 10 days. Not an average as the Canadian model uses. In August.

      https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html

      “The likelihood of recovering replication-competent virus also declines after onset of symptoms. For patients with mild to moderate COVID-19, replication-competent virus has not been recovered after 10 days following symptom onset (CDC, unpublished data, 2020; Wölfel et al., 2020; Arons et al., 2020; Bullard et al., 2020; Lu et al., 2020; personal communication with Young et al., 2020; Korea CDC, 2020). Recovery of replication-competent virus between 10 and 20 days after symptom onset has been documented in some persons with severe COVID-19 that, in some cases, was complicated by immunocompromised state (van Kampen et al., 2020). However, in this series of patients, it was estimated that 88% and 95% of their specimens no longer yielded replication-competent virus after 10 and 15 days, respectively, following symptom onset.”

  32. For some analysis of the age factor in COVID-19 deaths for the province of Ontario, see:
    https://thopid.blogspot.com/2020/08/some-covid-19-analyses.html
    The analysis shows that, between age 20 and 90+, the risk of death from COVID-19 doubles every 5.8 years older you are. Indeed, for those over 90 years old, fully 35% of those who contracted the disease died from it, at least according to the case numbers published by the province. This extreme trend over a wide age range should inform public policies for reopening as discussed on that page. But Ontario seems almost blind to the importance of age as a factor, other than giving lip service to those over 70.

  33. Wanted to post this somewhere. Perhaps you or someone else on WUWT would investigate and write an article on this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uzXHnUViro

    Belgian study seems pretty convincing.
    Maybe it can save some lives if it can get out into the larger populace and force the politicians to allow lives to be saved.

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