Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Authorities have ordered dam operators to try to hold back incoming flood water, as Chinese manufacturing and farming heartland cities in the Yangtze Delta are bracing for yet more severe flooding. The same order given by Chinese authorities in similar circumstances in 1975 led to the deaths of up to a quarter of a million people.
China on alert for Yangtze River flooding as storms close in
Water resources minister urges dams in upper reaches to ease as much pressure as possible on downstream areas still recovering from last month’s inundation
Residents in Shaanxi province told to move to higher ground amid threat of flash floods
Alice Yan in Shanghai
Published: 7:01pm, 17 Aug, 2020Heavy rain is expected across China’s southwest, northwest and northeast in the next three days, raising flood risks and pressure on dams, weather forecasters have warned.
The Ministry of Water Resources urged local authorities to be on alert, particularly along the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the middle reaches of the Yellow, Hai, Songhua and Liao rivers.
The National Meteorological Centre said Sichuan province in the country’s southwest would be particularly hard hit, with up to 300mm (11.8 inches) of rain forecast for Monday.
Between 30-50mm of rain is expected to fall per hour in the provinces of Yunnan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, rising to over 70mm an hour in some scattered areas.
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Read more: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3097699/china-alert-yangtze-river-flooding-storms-close
Pressuring operators of dams which are already at or near maximum capacity to try to hold back anticipated severe flooding in my opinion puts the structural integrity of the entire river system at risk.
One of the worst dam failures in history occurred in 1975, after Typhoon Nina dumped water upstream of the Banqiao Dam. Whistle blower Chen Xing had warned Banqiao Dam was defective but his warnings were ignored. Authorities rejected a plea from dam operators on August 6th to open the floodgates. This order to keep the flood gates closed was rescinded on August 7th, too late to save the dam.
Up to a quarter of a million people are estimated to have died because of the Banqiao Dam failure.
This year Typhoon Hagupit struck the Yangtze River headwaters. Continuing severe rainfall is striking already waterlogged ground. Whistle blower and renowned geologist Fan Xiao’s warnings about the structural integrity of Three Gorges have been dismissed by authorities. And now once again Chinese authorities are putting pressure on operators of dams which are already sitting at or near maximum capacity to do their best to hold back the flood.
Let us hope that history does not repeat itself. 400 million people live in the Yangtze River Delta, downstream of the Three Gorges Dam.
I really hope it doesn’t, but you can be sure that if the 3 Gorge Dam fails then it is the West that will be blamed because this will all be becuase of Global Warming. Get ready for Greta.
Doesn’t need to fail for the risk of failure to be used as a propaganda point
There is this large typhoon sitting offshore of China. They better hoe that it doesn’t turn to the west, … https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-239.29,24.54,1713/loc=124.492,28.037
At the moment it is forecast to move north just west of Cheju-do and along the west coast of South Korea, and then hit North Korea dead center. I wonder what shape their dams are in?
“Between 30-50mm of rain is expected to fall per hour in the provinces of Yunnan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, rising to over 70mm an hour in some scattered areas.”
That is pretty remarkable. Gansu and Inner Mongolia are mostly desert and Shaanxi, Hebei and Heilongjiang are also rather dry.
This is a remarkably strong monsoon for a non-Niña year.
Convectively-coupled equatorial waves, as equatorial Rossby waves coupling to eastward propagating MJO setup is strong in this NH summer. This latest is 3rd wave of a likely 4 wave train set about 30 days apart. The 4th wave train in September will be dissipating (weaker), with the current (3rd wave) now occurring being the strongest of the set.
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/07/03/its-probably-nothing-82/#comment-1333856
The man turned down the job because he did not agree with the dam site, which he considered problematical in terms of silt burden and also embankment failure. He did not consider the dam itself to be a risk.
The Chinese have been dealing with flooding for millennia and even have a proverb for dealing with floods, control the flow rather than try to stop it. So it seems reasonable that they expect the 3 Gorges dam to only help control the flow as well. That is not an indication of structural concern however, no matter what the more skeptical commentators claim.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3992127
With 75,000 cubic metres per second of water flowing in from the Yangtze river on Thursday, the reservoir’s depths reached 165.6 metres by Friday morning, up more than 2 metres overnight and almost 20 metres higher than the official warning level.
The maximum designed depth of China’s largest reservoir is 175 metres.
Agreed.
Auto
Mind, I’m a bit concerned about the UK Government – and other Western administrations, as well.
Also they appear – to me – to be hosing the landscape with huge amounts of money they don’t yet have.
They may get that cash.
‘May’.
It may be needed [Covid decisions are easy to criticise in hindsight] now.
And some of them are swigging the ACGW Kool-Aid as if someone else is paying . . . .
Oh – wait.
We taxpayers will be expected – required – to pay. Ahhh.
Here’s a quote I have yet to understand:
“If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”
Patience I think – the river of time?
The quote speaks to patience and self-control. Rather than acting recklessly and rashly and thus possibly coming to a bad end yourself, your enemies will eventual come to their own ruin in good time and if you wait long enough you’ll get to see that happen.
There were no similar circumstances in 1975 because there was no 3 Gorges Dam and any dam that there was, was caveman technology. The dam is not at maximum capacity. It is where it is every year and still has 10 meters to go.
China has a glass jaw.
Olen say’s :
“China has a glass jaw”
————————————–
That may be true in one sense, but it has an estimated inventory of 290 nuclear weapons, and modern means of delivering them, and somewhere between weak to non-existent controls on the people who could give orders to use them.
Back in 2001 Tropical Storm Allison hit Houston Texas and innundated much of the downtown with a once in 500 year flooding. There were up to 37 inches of rain dropped during the single event. Drainage was redone, the downtown upgraded but probably unnecessary. I mean, how often does a once in 500 year event happen, am I right?
Then of course in 2017 Hurricane Harvey dumped up to 60 inches of rain in a single location.