Early spread of COVID-19 appears far greater than initially reported

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

Patients with undiagnosed flu symptoms who actually had COVID-19 last winter were among thousands of undetected early cases of the disease at the beginning of this year. In a new paper in The Lancet’s open-access journal EClinicalMedicine, epidemiological researchers from The University of Texas at Austin estimated COVID-19 to be far more widespread in Wuhan, China, and Seattle, Washington, weeks ahead of lockdown measures in each city.

In the U.S., about a third of the estimated undiagnosed cases were among children. The researchers also concluded that the first case of COVID-19 in Seattle may have arrived as far back as Christmas or New Year’s Day.

Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor of integrative biology and statistics and data sciences who leads the UT Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, worked with her team of researchers to extrapolate the extent of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan and Seattle based on retested throat swabs taken from patients who were suffering from influenza-like illnesses during January in Wuhan and during late February and early March in Seattle. When the samples were analyzed later in each city, most turned out to be flu, but some turned out to be positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

“Even before we realized that COVID-19 was spreading, the data imply that there was at least one case of COVID-19 for every two cases of flu,” Meyers said. “Since we knew how widespread flu was at that time, we could reasonably determine the prevalence of COVID-19.”

When the Chinese government locked down Wuhan on Jan. 22, there were 422 known cases. But, extrapolating the throat-swab data across the city using a new epidemiological model, Meyers and her team found that there could have been more than 12,000 undetected symptomatic cases of COVID-19. On March 9, the week when Seattle schools closed due to the virus, researchers estimate that more than 9,000 people with flu-like symptoms had COVID-19 and that about a third of that total were children. The data do not imply that health authorities were aware of these infections, rather that they may have gone unseen during the early and uncertain stages of the pandemic.

“Given that COVID-19 appears to be overwhelmingly mild in children, our high estimate for symptomatic pediatric cases in Seattle suggests that there may have been thousands more mild cases at the time,” wrote Zhanwei Du, a postdoctoral researcher in Meyers’ lab and first author on the study.

According to several other studies, about half of COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic, leading researchers to believe that there may have been thousands more infected people in Wuhan and Seattle before each city’s respective lockdown measures went into effect.

“We can go back and piece together the history of this pandemic using a combination of investigative techniques and modeling,” Meyers said. “This helps us understand how the pandemic spread so quickly around the globe and provides insight into what we may see in the coming weeks and months.”

The new technique for estimating the amount of unseen COVID-19 based on the ratio of influenza cases to COVID-19 cases has also been used to determine how many children were actually infected in each city and the pace of the early pandemic in the U.S., Meyers said.

The finding in the new paper is consistent with work that Meyers and her team have done on the virus’s early spread. Using travel data, she and her team estimated how far the virus had spread and concluded that there were as many as 12,000 cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan before the lockdown.

###

In addition to Meyers and Du, graduate students Emily Javan and Ciara Nugent at The University of Texas at Austin and professor Benjamin J. Cowling of the University of Hong Kong contributed to the research. The research was funded by the National Institutes of Health.

From EurekAlert!

173 thoughts on “Early spread of COVID-19 appears far greater than initially reported

    • Fore sure there needs to be more investigative research with more specific sequencing techniques being used, if an accurate story is to emerge.

      • PCR tests are extremely specific. There is nothing more specific. However no technique no matter how good can analyze samples that were never taken.

        • I think that susceptibility to produce false positives has been a problem with PCR for a long time.

          Anyway, yes samples need to be taken, archived and analyzed using a myriad of techniques.

    • There are reports of cases (ill people) in the US as early as October and November. Healthcare workers and doctors in Nebraska were dealing with it in December and January. I got it two week after our Chinese students returned from vacation in January. This virus was around a relatively long time before they had their crappy test for it. Then, they pretended it was just arriving and applied inappropriate virology predictions (calling a positive tests “cases” is just wrong) to the situation.

      • It escaped the lab in early October in Wuhan. The CCP tried to keep it quiet while allowing people to travel outside China with the clear intent to infect the world, especially the West. Probably fearful that China would be weakened and wanting to make sure the U.S. would be also.
        Someone should look at travel volumes out of China and specifically Wuhan to look for an uptick in people flying to the West.

        • The New Year Festival would do the trick without any central planning, other than suppressing the existence of an outbreak

      • Sick people in Nebraska in Oct and Nov? Doesn’t happen. Must have been Wuhan flu.

        All kidding aside…cases a few weeks earlier than previously thought is one thing. October 2019 in Nebraska is another when the first confirmed Nebraska case was March 6th, up to 5 months later.

        Italy was the first European country to be hit. Wastewater samples from Oct and Nov tested clean. First detection was Dec 18 in Turin and Milan. Place in the Netherlands, Spain, etc, have found a positive sample a few weeks to even a month before their first confirmed case, but not 4-5 months.

      • I got tested for flu a week before thanksgiving. Negative. 104 degree fever and chills and shaking for three days. Horrible aches. Doc said there’s an unknown virus going around. Said she was overwhelmed with it.

  1. From about the second week of jan to mid march I had the worst, cough, phlegm, weakness. I have never felt so rough, I lost just over three stone in weight, and the cough finally stopped in march.

    I tried every flu medicine, herbal, yet nothing worked, other people I know were sick around that time as well.

    • and under our noses was –

      “Chloroquine is eliminated slowly, over at least a month, so you don’t need daily dosing for prophylaxis. It concentrates in the lungs (between 120 and 750 times the blood plasma concentration). This doesn’t help much in malaria, but is exactly where it’s needed to protect against respiratory infections. As for hydroxychloroquine, it’s very similar, and even better against Covid-19 (both treatment and prophylaxis).

      To summarise: chloroquine not only inhibits, it prevents Covid-19 infections in vitro; it is eliminated slowly and concentrates in the lungs; hydroxychloroquine is similar and better. So there are plenty of rational reasons to suppose hydroxychloroquine is an effective prophylactic against Covid-19. Donald Trump thinks so; the top dogs of the Chinese Communist Party think so; Dr Zelenko, with only one lung and immune-compromised, is so confident that he sees Covid-19 patients without a mask. He has just had surgery for his rare cancer, but hasn’t got Covid”

        • Can’t even read the methodology or results. So going to supplementary info, dose is given in micromoles without the actual amount of mL dosed. Only one monkey in the experiment did not completely shed the virus after the end of 28 days, they were in the control group where they were given the placebo (lol yes a placebo for monkeys). All others, whether treated or not, all shed the virus in days. There is no information at all on the prophylactics.

          So this experiment basically concluded that a medication doesn’t work in humans because Macaque immune systems quickly eliminated SARS-Cov-2 on their own. Congratulations on peddling junk science. Will they actually even publish this study or will it just sit there in prereview indefinitely to be used as evidence as if it’s been peer reviewed?

          • Here’s the pdf:

            https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2558-4_reference.pdf

            Results generated by Vero6 (source: monkey, kidney epithelial) cells are just not very predictive for humans at all.

            Big problem for translational research way before SARS-CoV-2. But these cells have been the only ones used in the Chinese paper from Wuhan that started the HCQ hype initially.

            This Nature paper uses primary human tissue (that is as good as you can get in a dish) and shows HCQ does not prevent infection or replication. What the others confirmed was the effectiveness of HCQ to prevent this in the monkey Vero6 kidney cells as the Chinese paper claimed.

            Well, that is like a smoking gun.

          • No kidding Ron, sprinkle the HCQ on when they are dead…see it doesn’t work. More misdirection indeed.

          • @Derg
            Biopsies are taken from living donors. If the tissue would be dead, no viral replication.

            It’s the opposite.

          • Wut? Did you actually read it? My browser loads the first page and that’s it. Some paper from China that used monkey’s is not what started nor is it keeping the hype going. This nature paper uses monkeys, says it right in the title and in the abstract and in the entire supplementary information – where is this Nature study using biopsied tissue? How is tissue that you pull out of a living person supposed to actually function and use HCQ in conjunction with Zn to stop the virus from replicating? Sometimes I swear I am talking to NPCs.
            https://c19study.com/

          • @Robert W. Turner
            Then you need a new browser.

            How is tissue that you pull out of a living person supposed to actually function and use HCQ in conjunction with Zn to stop the virus from replicating?

            Please educate yourself about the term “ex vivo” and how widespread the technique of tissue slice culture is and how tissue can be kept alive in a dish.

            where is this Nature study using biopsied tissue?

            Read the paragraph “Viral infection and treatment in reconstituted human airway epithelia (HAE)” and find the related data in the paper.

            I am getting more and more annoyed with people’s functional illiteracy. Just read what is there. Carefully. If you don’t understand it, repeat. Find the main sentence. Make a reduction. It’s getting very tiring to have people again and again claiming things or misreading things that are or are just not in the papers where it is already sufficient work to discuss honestly what IS REALLY there.

        • And yet, eleven countries, with a combined population of 2.0 billion people in which there was widespread early application of HCQ vs eight countries, with a combined population of 600 million where HCQ was banned or discounted, saw one-fifth as many deaths per million!

          Average death rate per million w/ HCQ: 156.
          Average death rate per million without HCQ: 721.

          I first heard about the efficacy of HCQ from Chinese sources that said a particular group in China seldom got the virus: lupus patients who were taking HCQ to treat that disease. Further research there found it was the HCQ that was the beneficial agent.

          It appears an article in the Lancet first discounted the efficacy of HCQ but that article was later withdrawn–apparently the results didn’t hold up to scrutiny! Later, a study done at the VA was also withdrawn as the conclusions were based on highly questionable methods!

          So you can take the results of a bunch of French researchers if you want but practical field application comparing two groups totaling 2.6 billion tells a completely different story!

          I also understand there are 50 more studies that point to the efficacy of HCQ with zinc in treating the coronavirus.

          Add to that the fact that those countries sharply criticizing and curtailing HCQ generally practice pharmacological advances where vaccines are the goal and the reason might very well be based on “follow the money” rather than saving lives! …that appears to be the post-modern approach to medicine in a pandemic, especially if some calling the shots have a vested interest in the vaccines being developed!

          If this can be proven in court, the class-action lawsuits will be in the $Trillions of dollars!

          Like the old saying goes, “See you in court!”

          • If you want junk science you cn either incentivize it as in AGW or find a line of thinking that satisfies Trump Derangement Syndrome. Either way it will magically appear in volumes you can’t even process but which the scientific geniuses in the media will find space for and sensationalize.
            Mods- Once again not posting

        • Steve the problem with picking the anti-HCQ cocktail side is….

          Science is about truth. If the HCQ cocktail really does work and the world finds out…..

          There is going to be blow back.

          There are a great deal of people who are very angry about having to isolate…. There is evidence that HCQ a simple drug that we have used for 20 years can absolutely stop covid, by stopping the virus from replicating.

          There is evidence that some of the HCQ studies were designed to fail. That does not make sense and that is sort of criminal, hiding an effective covid treatment. It does not make sense that research can be corrupted.

          People need to be charged and go to jail to stop that kind of deep state corruption.

          Give HCQ to almost dead people. HCQ plus zinc works by stopping the virus from replicating. It cannot help if the virus has replicated and damaged the organs of its victim.

          Bioactive chemicals such as HCQ, plus zinc… work and save lives or they do not work.

          There are honest, courageous Brazilians who are going to prove to the world that the HCQ cocktail works.

          https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202007.0025/v1

          COVID-19 Outpatients – Early Risk-Stratified Treatment with Zinc Plus Low Dose Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin: A Retrospective Case Series Study
          Therefore, the odds of hospitalization of treated patients were 84% less than in the untreated group.

          Conclusions: Risk stratification-based treatment of COVID-19 outpatients as early as possible after symptom onset with the used triple therapy, including the combination of zinc with low dose hydroxychloroquine, was associated with significantly less hospitalizations and 5 times less all-cause deaths.

          • “If the HCQ cocktail really does work and the world finds out…..

            There is going to be blow back.”

            Big time blow back and very well deserved. Truly criminal behaviour by the statist political TDS crowd.

        • Steven Mosher
          August 17, 2020 at 3:51 am

          Just a simple question, silly one maybe.

          But just for the sake of record, if you can answer.

          What would you say in consideration of a claim like;

          “chloroquine is a medication that belongs in a group of drugs, where and when the main effect
          is within the clause of immunosuppression.
          A very short list of such as that it belongs to, in its main effect.
          Not the same class as the most of all known and considered as immunosuppression drugs there.”

          “HCQ is a proper immunosuppression drug, in the proper meaning of it,
          an “anti panic” drug in consideration of immune system response,
          a drug belonging in the class that happens to be the only class with a successive and proper effect against what may be called a “death blossom” condition of the immune response.”
          (not the same class claimed and considered as immunosupression drugs, officially)

          cheers

        • “The latest international testing of hydroxychloroquine treatment of coronavirus shows countries that had early use of the drug had a 79% lower mortality rate than countries that banned the use of the safe malaria drug”

          https://c19study.com

      • OFFS!
        “Dr Zelenko practices telemedicine and did not “see” a single patient!
        So quite making stuff up!
        He did not get it because he is sitting in an office alone seeing patients on a computer screen.
        Which is also why he sees them with no mask on!

        ““I’m …not a researcher,” he said. “I don’t understand fully the language of clinical research.”
        He said the misunderstanding stemmed from a lecture he gave last month to a group of physicians over the videoconferencing app Zoom, which Mr. Corsi attended. During the lecture, Dr. Zelenko claimed that the clinical trial he was helping organize, sponsored by St. Francis Hospital in New York, had been approved by the F.D.A. In fact, only the hospital’s internal review board had approved it.”

        “In my mind, that led me to think it was F.D.A.-approved,” Dr. Zelenko said. “In reality, it was a mistake.”

        “Dr. Zelenko, who has been practicing telemedicine from his home office, is working to keep his coronavirus patients alive. He said his team had seen about 900 patients with possible coronavirus symptoms, treating about 350 with his regimen. None had died as of Thursday, he said, though six were hospitalized and two were on ventilators.

        He is worried about his own health. One of his lungs was removed as part of his cancer treatment, and chemotherapy has weakened his immune system, putting him in a high-risk category for the coronavirus.”

        He never gave any follow up on his patients beyond that ten day update, although it is known as least some died.
        And somehow those early reports never got around to mentioning the six who were already hospitalized and the two who were so far gone they were on ventilation in an medically induced coma.

        • spinning wheels … spending hours … need to refute anything that appears to show HQC in a positive light.

          must save positional view … if only for a few minutes.

      • BTW, anyone still passing along this BS and lies about Zelenko in the middle of August is either lying on purpose or the least informed person on Earth.
        All of this has been widely discussed and debunked everywhere from here to the New York Times as far back as the very beginning of April, and not just once or twice:

        https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/technology/doctor-zelenko-coronavirus-drugs.html

        https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/us/coronavirus-doctor-zelenko-malaria-drug.html

        “Hypothesis: Restrictions on Hydroxychloroquine Contribute …
        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/05/hypothesis
        Jul 05, 2020 · NYT, dated April 2nd: “…Dr. Zelenko, who has been practicing telemedicine from his home office, is working to keep his coronavirus patients alive. He said his team had seen about …”

        The simplest search turns up hundreds of separate references to this.
        It has been the subject of dozens of long comment threads here alone.

        • Wait, so you’re actually quoting the New York Times as a source? That we should trust?
          Wow, just wow.

          • For the NYT it’s more like an admission against interest and thus is more likely to be true.

            And if you are quoting it to a Democrat, it’s irrefutable proof.

        • Dr Zelenko is quite vocal on Twitter about HCQ. I would tend to look at the actual source of information vs relying on any intermediary like the NYT for their interpretation of what he said or claimed. Doesn’t make it more or less true. But the media lies incessantly.

          https://twitter.com/zev_dr?lang=en

          • To the best of my knowledge the study done through the Henry Ford Health system is the most comprehensive for Hydroxycholoquine and showed that treatment early after onset resulted in a death rate approx. half of other treatments.
            Of course, it has hydroxychloroquine in the title so the media treats it as radioactive and half the population would rather believe that than accept that Trump might have had a decent idea.
            Same half that says we have to believe the science on AGW without question.

          • If they told me the sky was blue on a clear day I’d still go outside to check. They have sunk that low IMHO.

        • (sometimes it is just better for your own mental health just to admit error and go away for a while … not forever, just a while)

      • I had what I thought was the worst cold of my life in Hanoi the last week of December. Could not eat or get out of bed for two days. Lost 2.5 kilos of weight. Hanoi gets a lot of Chinese tourists and I was around a number of them in December.

      • I was really really sick in Beijing, with respiratory symptoms, in December 1975. I bet that was Covid 19 too.

        • Probably an early version before they stole enough tech from the West to make the good stuff.

      • Did they lock you in your apartment? That seemed to be the standard treatment for CCP virus.

    • Phlegm isn’t usually a symptom of covid-19 infection, but strange things can happen. What’s typical of covid-19 is the loss of smell and taste.

    • Same for my son in LA in late Nov. He and two neighbors had a rough time as you did and they just tested positive for C-19 antibodies. I had the same thing in early March in Maine, a “cold” that went straight to the lungs and lasted more than two weeks. I still have a residual cough.

      It has been around for a while.

    • Yep, me from January 4th, but I can’t prove it. But if it tastes like Covid-19, I.e. you can’t taste anything, surely it must be?

      Rich.

  2. For several weeks now, flu and pneumonia have been killing more people in the UK than Covid.

    It would seem that we will never cease a lockdown until we have defeated ALL illnesses….

        • Because they can push whatever authoritarian measures they want because ‘think of the grannies!’

          And they can delay elections whenever they feel like it, as New Zealand has and I believe local governments in the UK have.

        • And it makes their jobs easier

          … built in excuse for incompetence
          … they get to work on the “big problem” that can’t be solved, so there is no real responsibility.

  3. I wonder how they can retest months old swabs when the virus is detectable (not infectable) for only 72 hours on hard surfaces?

    • “The data we analyzed from ref [9]. were collected from two hospitals that have large and representative catchments: Children’s Hospital of Wuhan (the largest pediatric healthcare center in Wuhan, serving both children and adults) [17,18] with 2000 beds and 1.9 million annual outpatient visits and Wuhan No. 1 Hospital [19], with over 3000 beds and 2 million annual outpatient visits. Both serve as sentinel sites in China’s national influenza surveillance system[9]. The SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus among tested ILI throat swab samples are well kept at −70 °C before the SARS-CoV-2 experiments and detected by real-time PCR with reverse transcription[9].”

      Little bugger likes the cold.

      explains (speculating ) some of the weird cases in China (imported salmon) and NZ

      • Unlikely the virions are still alive after this.
        PCR does not look for live virions anyway…only viral RNA fragments.
        And the cold is very good at preventing molecular degradation.

      • Like you expect me to believe anything coming out of any chinese study. I wouldn’t believe them if they said the sky was blue until I personally went outside and checked.

        • Yup! China is a black hole for truth. Anything that comes out of there is approved or modified to give the desired effect. It is either meaningless or propaganda.

          • What will happen when the Three Gorges Dam goes out? Will the CCP admit the Party was responsible for building a defective megastructure? Or will they blame everybody but themselves?

          • Disinformation is everywhere these days. The folks talking about the imminent failure of the Three Gorges Dam seem to have n anti-CCP axe to grind so it’s impossible at this stage to know what the truth is on that. I suspect the dam is probably ok. By which I mean I don’t know which liar to believe so I don’t believe either.

        • Like you expect me to believe anything coming out of any chinese study.

          Well, that’s funny cause ALL three initial studies about HCQ and SARS-CoV-2 came from China. Two of them even directly from the lab in Wuhan.

          But when the president acknowledged HCQ they suddenly were way more appealing to people and it is not important anymore where they were coming from.

          I wouldn’t call that exactly critical thinking.

    • On hard surfaces, the virus (say a contaminated water droplet) is exposed to air, it can dry, lose its envelope, receive UV light.

      Not so much a closed vial.

  4. I am in the UK.

    In the second week of September my wife and I contracted a very nasty virus in our local hospital where she was undergoing surgery and surveillance overnight.

    The symptoms were identical to Covid bar the fever: we had low temperatures. The fatigue was such that we remained in bed for weeks.

    Wee self isolated immediately.

    Towards the end of November we improved to the extent of lifting our self imposed lockdown and restarted our lives albit still not 100% fit.

    In early December we were hit again: identical symptoms but worse.

    By February I had improved a lot but at the end of March caught a cold (?) that had all the Covid symptoms including a high, if not fever level, temperature. My wife, who had not fully recovered from the December bout also got it. It took until the end of April for me to recover somewhat.

    I fully recovered by the end of June.

    My wife improved a little but due to RA and the compromised immune system still has the symptoms of a very heavy cold. Of course, being the UK the available “healthcare” is rubbish.

    Naturally, throughout all this we have researched this virus carefully and in detail. There have been a few reports that CoV2 was around last summer with three main strains.

    • All one needs do is check the airline schedules. Wuhan was a major, direct flight, non-stop international hub with daily (as in every single day) flights to London, Paris, Rome, New York City, Los Angeles, Sydney, Singapore and all the other major Asian international airports. Meaning, a few hundred individuals imported daily from “ground zero”.

      Meyers analysis may be flawed due to reliance on the Honest Cadre in the Chinese Government. Check the flights from China to Seattle.

      • You forgot Naples, Italy in that list…

        I wonder why they didn’t retest that epicenter as well.Couldn’t get access, perhaps?

    • Ever thought of getting yourselves tested. Might just possibly have TOLD you something — and the rest of us as well!

      There is in practice evidence from several countries that hydroxychloroquine, alone or better in conjunction with azithromycine, given early enough, can be beneficial. Trust Mosher to go looking for a paper that says otherwise.

      And if it’s a choice between a live monkey and a “model (!) of reconstituted human airway epithelium”, Stephen, I know which I would trust!

      • My wife and I were both ill in February. She got really sick for a full week and was weeks afterward recovering. Even so she had no fever beyond 37.5C. I was sick one night. Our town had a raging case of flu during this period where at one point half the school was out sick. It was a very bad flu season in Manitoba and very strict protocols were enacted in our senior homes to prevent the elderly from getting it. There were numerous cases that turned into pneumonia. The flu season was so bad the health authorities were praying the flu season would pass before COVID hit because all the ICU beds were full of flu sufferers. When COVID arrived the already in place strict isolation protocols for the elderly in care homes was simply extended. We have no antibody testing in our country because our government has essentially banned it saying it is not accurate enough even though there is a Canadian company manufacturing and exporting the kits to the UK and the USA so we have no way to know if that was flu or COVID.

      • Newminister, HCQ alone is not of much use. HCQ opens a door to the virus so zinc can enter. The zinc will shut down virus replication. The zinc dose is fairly high so it should no be taken long term as it drives copper out of the body.

      • Ever thought of getting yourselves tested

        Well, since you mention it, yes.

        When I had what I thought was a mild case of covid19 in April (gasping for breath just walking down the street for about 2 weeks, then mild fever for about 3 days, followed by persistent dry cough for about 6 weeks), I asked for a test but the provincial authorities in Ontario were adamant that you only got a test if you had a temperature of 38.7° or higher. I never went over 38.1° so they said – you don’t have covid, so you can’t get a test – take that, you miserable peasant!

        There are 4 of us in the house and the rest of my family showed no symptoms. Did they have it, and were asymptomatic? Or did I not have it and I had some other infection that didn’t resemble any flu I’ve had in the past? Or did I have it but was not infectious? Who knows?

        To paraphrase one who knew a little about making hard decisions: “Never in the history of human medicine, have so many uttered so many opinions on the basis of so few facts”

        • That sounds like the Canadian health care system we know and love. With a multitude of reports of symptoms varying from severe to non-existent they establish arbitrarily foolish guidelines for testing on an illness they are trying hard to control the spread of. Genius!

    • “In the second week of September my wife and I contracted a very nasty virus in our local hospital”

      Almost certainly not CoV-2. Phylogenetic studies of the various virus strains dates their common ancestor somewhere in November.

      Either you were infected by something else, or by a stem-group CoV-2 strain that has subsequently died out completely (unlikely but not impossible, at least one such HIV strain is known to have existed in Africa)

  5. This doesn’t make sense. Flu is more dangerous in children and they are super incubators. They show flu symptoms very early in the illness. Most people who die from flu do so because the kids brought it home from school.

    Covid 19 is the opposite. Children get a mild disease and don’t show symptoms at all sometimes and only mild symptoms in some. However, Chidren are very contagious at this early stage. The rash was only discovered to be an early symptom in ~~30% of people. The antibodies last only about 40 days (IgG) but the memory cells ( T Cells ) can last for years but are very difficult to measure. The best I have had so far is a hole drilled in my pelvis and the marrow removed for analysis. It took about 2 weeks. IgG can be accurately measured in 4 days.

    John M Reynolds August 17, 2020 at 2:27 am

    Apparently, viruses has been found to survive frozen for years.

    • I had positive antibodies test more than 90 days after Covid-19 recovery. I’ll donate blood and test for them again at 180 days.

    • The media is driving the narrative of fear and lesser minds are lapping it up. Absolutely, flu is more dangerous for child, teens and young adults. It can all be addressed.

      Pregnancy is to be avoided at all costs because the mother can die in child birth.

  6. What is the difference between people who are resistant to a disease and people who are asymptomatic? There must be an overlap between the two categories at least.

    • From what I understand the deadly effect of this virus is mostly from an extreme inflammation in the upper respiratory tract that does not occur in all infected people. It may have a link to vitamin D levels and/or age. In spite of anecdotal reports on this our medical authorities seem to feel there is “nothing to see here”. A brand new disease that we know very little about and has killed thousands but isn’t worthy of looking in the corners for new understanding. NOTHING moves slower than medical science.

  7. My response to this is that, no-one really knows. It’s pure speculation as all the predictions were modelled in a computer. Initial figures now indicate that Govn’t response to the “threat” actually CAUSED more deaths (Suicide etc).

  8. I refuse to wear a face nappy in public. I refuse to wear one on public transport, and I can tell others that do are “judging” me with their eyes and thinking “Why isn’t he wearing a face nappy?!”

    Many food outlets here in Australia are using “tracing” apps. Everyone of those have lost my custom. I refuse to “check-in” to buy a sammie (Sandwhich) at lunch time.

    • Imagine that all such nappies had unpleasant political statements emblazoned as further evidence of virtue signaling as a compliant person. #Resist. Do Not Comply.

      • “Doug Huffman August 17, 2020 at 4:05 am”

        Discarded face nappies are now causing a litter pollution issue where people are discarding them…in public places!!!

        • I’ve seen the discarded face-diapers on the streets and sidewalks too but, fortunately, not too many. I guess the litterbugs will be with us always.

      • You can already buy those. I have been thinking of a MAGA mask. That should trigger a few people.

    • I am not clear why you are against records of attendance at food outlets. If I have lunch at one, and later someone else who was a customer turns out to have covid, I’d really like to be contacted and told, so that I can find out asap if I’ve caught it and then take prompt action to avoid passing it on to members of my family. There have been a number of family outbreaks in Australia where one person has brought it home and infected all their family.

      Still, thank you for boycotting all food outlets that keep a list of their customers. Especially if you are not wearing a mask. You are keeping us safe!

      BTW I’ve never heard the term ‘face nappy’ and it would not have occurred to me. Why are you so sensitive to assume that others would think this if you wear, or don’t wear a mask? Does this mean you wouldn’t wear a medical boot if you broke your ankle in case someone looked at you (so you defensively thought) judgementally?

  9. From the article: “When the Chinese government locked down Wuhan on Jan. 22, there were 422 known cases.”

    The Chicoms only locked down Wuhan from internal travel. Travel from China to the rest of the world continued.

  10. The Great Plandemic Hoax, hysterical and hyperbolic continues.

    Here comes Northern Hemisphere Influenza season. Oh, woe is me, what shall I do?

    • Doug, What shall you do in the Northern Hemisphere Influenza Season?

      All the precautions for Covid work for flu. The flu numbers in Australia have plummeted this winter because of this. So just keep up the same precautions and you’ll be OK, actually more so than in previous years because you’ll be safer from flu as well as from Covid.

      • But if we foster up a generation people who haven’t been exposed to Covid or Flu, then at one stage there will be a superfluous, like the 1918 variant, that will attack a population with no resistance.

        Much better to carry on allowing flu to go through the general population every year to build immunity.

  11. “This research was made possible, in part, by NIH grant U01 GM087791 and funding from Tito’s Handmade Vodka in support of the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium”

  12. Had this been treated as the flu that it is/was without the hysteria that millions are going to die, it would have vanished like the seasonal flu. As usual the elderly would be at risk as others with compromised immune systems but they always are. Take care of them and the rest of us will take care of ourselves.

    • Old white guy. How do you know covid-19 ‘would have vanished like the seasonal flu’? No-one knows.

      What if there had been no lockdowns and the virus had spread and killed very many millions (instead of the 770,000 or so) with a much higher chance of mutations? I suspect you’d be writing angry posts complaining that governments should have taken tougher action long ago.

      • Sweden is the first world poster child for no lockdowns and they came out of it intact. All countries with minimal resources show the same curve as well as US states. The pandemic is burning itself out as all do. Typical infection chart: https://twitter.com/Covid19Crusher/status/1293914287799336960/photo/1

        The high death rates were all centered around older/obese people with co-morbidities. Most, and I emphasize MOST people would have come out of this with their health and jobs if the government would have just stayed out of it other than working with people at risk.

        Instead we have higher suicide rates and all kinds of health and well-being implications for the vast majority of people this disease had minimal impact on. There were no lockdowns in many areas and the doom and gloom just didn’t happen. So please stop saying there was a possibility of a historic disaster because there wasn’t. The better safe than sorry policy was a monumental political mistake which goes on and on even after all the evidence shows it is time to return to normal.

        • Sweden did NOT come out intact.

          GNP loss second quarter 8,6 % compared to 9,5 % for the US. And Denmark and Finland (which had short, sharp lock-downs) actually lost less (7,4 and 3,2 %)

          • The vast majority of the GDP hit was in exports because markets went AWOL.
            The financial numbers for the Swedish main corporates were pretty good considering the impact on these export markets. The vast majority of the Swedes support their governments policy and are content with the outcome. However just like everyone else they made a mess of protecting their care home sector, which was responsible for over 75% of fatalities.
            Finland is still in semi-permanent lockdown.

          • What portion of Sweden’s economy is dependent on other nations? If the answer is “A big portion” then their economy would’ve gotten whacked even if they didn’t have a single, internal case of Wuhan Virus.

          • “What portion of Sweden’s economy is dependent on other nations?”

            A Swedish official said that a lot of Sweden’s exports are high-tech and gtot hit harder than Denmark’s, which are mostly agricultural.

          • And how much did their debts go up?

            I don’t know about those other countries, but the US has printed trillions of dollars to try to keep businesses alive while they were locked down. It’s easy to push up GDP by printing money, but it’s all artificial.

          • So Sweden paid a price for the stupidity of the rest of the world. Does that mean that Sweden goofed? No!

        • I was really really sick in Beijing, with respiratory symptoms, in December 1975. I bet that was Covid 19 too.

        • RBabcock.. Sweden may not have had a hard initial lockdown, but that resulted in a much higher death number than most other European countries. Since then, however, Sweden has benefited from the hard lockdowns by all its neighbours, which cut cross-border travel so limiting arrival of new infections into the country. So Sweden is not an independent test of no lockdown.

          Not all US states show the same pattern as Sweden. Some do show a similar early peak followed by a decline to low numbers. In others cases and deaths are still climbing. In fact there is so much variety between states, you can cherry pick to find a couple to support any theory you like.

          We really don’t know what might have happened if not for the border closures and lockdowns. We don’t know what is really happening in some countries (North Korea?). But if I have no grounds for declaring there was a possibility of a historic disaster, then equally you have no grounds for declaring there was no possibility.

          On balance, given what has actually happened in spite of the lockdowns, the probability is that the situation would have got much worse than it did. That would have likely triggered a later lockdown, a longer and slower recovery, and equivalent, or worse, economic damage.

          • Yeah, you’re going to need to prove your stipulation that Sweden benefited from the systematic hysteria implemented in neighboring nations. Waiting… not holding my breath, but waiting…

        • Additionally, they kept their schools open and had infection rates among teachers and other staff that were comparable to the general public. The world seems to be intent on not paying attention to anything that doesn’t conform to the standard narrative.
          Between the CCP, World Health Organization and our own incompetent medical authorities we are all lucky to be alive.

      • –What if there had been no lockdowns and the virus had spread and killed very many millions (instead of the 770,000 or so) with a much higher chance of mutations?—

        I think we know. I think New York city lockdown was to done too late.
        I think UK lockdown was done too late.
        And I think doing lockdown too late is about the same as doing no lockdown.
        Considering that New York city had a hospital ship and temporary hospital tents, I don’t think the New York city lockdown saved any New Yorker’s lives, but I think even the too late lockdown, saved lives outside of New York State, and doing it sooner would saved even more lives outside New York State and saved lives within the State.

        I think the most effective “lockdown measure” was shutting down airline traffic from China {and then later from EU] but it obviously would worked better if it had been done sooner.
        The party most responsible for it not occurring soon was WHO.
        And Chinese corruption of WHO is main reason WHO failed so badly at doing the only job that WHO was suppose to do.
        And ultimate cause of this global pandemic is obviously the actions of Chinese government.
        The damage to the world was caused by Chinese Communist Party and WHO. And USA did the most as compared any other country to limit this damage to the World {and the US}.

      • What-ifs are not arguments. We of course will be hearing about how incredibly smart the governments’ responses were as they saved their people from mass death – with no evidence of their policies effectiveness either way. The argument “it would have been a lot worse if we hadn’t done it” is untestable and fraudulent.

        I like the comparisons between populations and different government policies. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of difference in the result with any or no specific government policies.

        It does seem that HCQ did reduce numbers but to what extent isn’t clear; the whole affair has become so tainted with politics, avarice, pride and arse-covering.

      • What if you fall and break your fool neck tomorrow? (About 14,000 do every year.)

        What if you accidentally suffocate in your own bed tomorrow? (About 300 every year.)

        What if an asteroid hits the Earth tomorrow? (Once every few million years.)

        What if God schedules the Day of Judgement for tomorrow? (No idea; I’m not the Pope with a direct line.)

        What if?

        What if?

        What if?

        WHAT IF?????

  13. The family got it in early Feb from a family that had it full force in late Jan, based on CDC’s list of symptoms: we check eight of eleven boxes, only missing nausea, diarrhea, and the loss of taste/smell. Midcoast Maine. Non-MTA-commuting friend in N Mass and his family had it in early-mid December. It’s been here since the bat got out of the Wuhan virus institute’s bag in September/October.

    • So what your family and friends had could have been just ordinary flu? Isn’t mid December, Jan and early Feb winter in the northern hemisphere, the flu season?

    • outside of Bangor here. last few days Nov 2019 and approx 2.5 weeks into Dec 2019 had symptoms including taste and smell issues, dry cough, 100 deg f fever which is, for me, high as I tend to not get fevers often.

  14. One way to keep Covid mortality low and to keep economy going is too really lock down the higher risk people ( only if a person agrees ). Then just let virus spread in younger population. Very quickly herd immunity will be developed.

    You then remove people from lockdown in phases starting with lower risk people first. Definitely open schools, sporting events etc. As long as high risk people are truly locked down the mortality will be extremely low. You could even pay high risk people to stay at home and have trained volunteers deliver food etc to them.

      • Mostly in places where the governor mandated through draconian edict that covid-19 patients be put into nursing homes. Do we need lessons on how a quarantine works? I’m not so sure people understand what that word means.

      • They weren’t “locked down”, and they shouldn’t be. They need to be protected from the entry of the virus a best as possible by limiting contact, restricting visitors, staff adherence to hygiene and masking guidelines and regular temperature checks.
        I live in Western Canada. It has been known for years that every flu season many elderly people are taken by respiratory distress, yet the nursing homes regularly staff with overlapping layers of part time people. These people often find it necessary to work in 2 or 3 homes to get enough hours. I have known about this since the 1980’s when my ex worked in one of these facilities.
        The reality is that it is just accepted that these lives are not worth saving. My mother passed away at 90 just before Christmas in 2019 with a flu and pneumonia. There is a point where quality of life is terrible and death is better than suffering but we don’t need to rush people to that doorway.

    • “Then just let virus spread in younger population. Very quickly herd immunity will be developed.”

      Won’t work. It spreads too slowly and unevenly. We tried that in Sweden. We only got a lot more deaths, and a larger drop in the economy than our neighboring countries with short, sharp lock-downs.

      • Most countries in Europe had long, inefficient, ill conceived, arbitrary lock-downs that were also probably totally useless.

        Germany what only moderately hit by Covid and had less strict lock-downs, and still took a major economic hit.

    • Quite so SteveK.

      Goverments, in their panic, decided to do the impossible – quarantine the entire population. Folly! The sensible thing to do was, as with all infectious diseases, quarantine the sick and infected and isolate the vulnerable.

      • we are mainly governed by economically and scientifically ignorant opportunists. A disease presents itself. They defer to the medical “experts” because they can then say they were following the “best advice”. They don’t care about getting it right. They only care about covering their asses. I give Trump a lot of credit for going off script on Hydroxychloroquine and other issues. Very much a business like decision.
        There’s a problem. Let’s see what can be done to get ahead of it or minimize the damage. Don’t be afraid to question perceived wisdom. If the headless chickens would stop running around and clucking hysterically we could get something done.

  15. From the article: ““Given that COVID-19 appears to be overwhelmingly mild in children”

    Appearances may be deceiving. There may be long-term adverse health effects from being infected by the Wuhan virus, regardless of how sick the person gets from the initial disease.

    There are many reports of young, healthy people suffering adverse health effects after they have gotten over the Wuhan virus initial infection. The latest being 12 healthy college football players who got over the Wuhan virus but are now suffering from heart and lung inflammation. Another group of 100 recovered Wuhan virus patients were tested and 78 percent of them were showing inflammation.

    We are only into this pandemic for less than a year and are still learning new things about the Wuhan virus. As always, we shouldn’t assume more than we actually know.

    It might be worth considering giving every positive-tested person, even children, the HCQ treatment if they are diagnosed with the Wuhan virus.

    It might not be a good idea to allow the Wuhan virus infection to run its course even in healthy, asymptomatic people.

    The HCQ treatment will supposedly remove the Wuhan virus from the body in about a week and it looks to me like that should be our focus, because we don’t really know the consequences of allowing the Wuhan virus to run its course naturally. We may be in for a rude awakening in the future.

    The HCQ treatment looks to me like it could solve this possible problem and nip it in the bud. The treatment is only given to people for about five days and does not use high doses of any of the cocktail, and contrary to the FDA warning, there is almost no danger of causing heart problems by taking the HCQ treatment.

    I can’t say how the HCQ treatment would affect chldren. The doses given to adults may not be appropriate for children, but I don’t know one way or the other. I haven’t seen any commentary on the subject.

    I do think we should be leery of allowing the Wuhan virus to run its course in a person. Especially since there appears to be a safe treatment that can stop the damage short. If it turns out there is no serious long-term damage from the Wuhan virus then no harm, no foul. The body may be able to repair any long-term damage caused by the Wuhan virus. But all this is still unknown. I think it is better to be safe than sorry.

    The Wuhan virus is a nasty virus. Be careful out there. My advice (and I’m not a medical doctor) is If you test positive, run, do not walk, to the nearest doctor who will prescribe you the HCQ treatment and start taking it as soon as you can. That’s what I’m going to do.

    Don’t you love how our Overlords deemed the open letter to Dr. Fauci destroying his position against using the HCQ treatment as worthy of censorship.

    Here is the letter again for anyone who missed it. I think it is a very important document. Those of you in Europe may not be able to see the article as I understand it has been censored over there. Is TOR still operating?

    If Democrats are given political power this November, then we can expect the same kind of censorship taking place in Europe, here in the United States. The Democrats would just love to control what everyone says, and you can bet they will make every effort to do so. We don’t want that. We should vote their controlling butts out of office in November.

    https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/open-letter-to-dr-anthony-fauci-regarding-the-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-for-treating-covid-19/article_31d37842-dd8f-11ea-80b5-bf80983bc072.html

    • “There are many reports of young, healthy people suffering adverse health effects after they have gotten over the Wuhan virus initial infection. The latest being 12 healthy college football players who got over the Wuhan virus but are now suffering from heart and lung inflammation. Another group of 100 recovered Wuhan virus patients were tested and 78 percent of them were showing inflammation.”

      I can’t find anything about these two groups. Do you have links?

        • Thanks. So myocarditus (heart inflammation) in 12 football players, but no mention of them having recovered from covid. Only fear and concern that they could become infected. That’s why I like to check sources.

      • I have been running across these stories every day. I dont have the specific link at hand, but I’ll see what I can find later today.

        • Here’s my first find of the day:

          https://www.poncacitynow.com/humphrey-comments-on-covid-19-and-hydroxychloroquine/

          Humphrey Comments on COVID-19 and Hydroxychloroquine

          Mike Seals – August 16, 2020 11:46 pm

          “Finally I want to share my personal knowledge of Hydroxychloroquine. Sometime ago, I was having extreme trouble breathing. My chest hurt, and I struggled for every breath. I called doctors who all reported they would not test and would not treat. Each doctor’s office referred me to the state Health Department. In the course of performing my job, I have been advised the Health Department is 35% inaccurate or just plain wrong in their testing.

          I would not go to the Health Department with those poor testing results. Plus, they do not treat COVID. In addition, I did not want to subject my family and friends to demands of forced house arrest by the Health Department.

          Instead, I found a very courageous doctor who is willing to risk her medical career to save lives. After days of suffering, I took Hydroxychloroquine along with a regiment of other medications. Within two and a half hours I was unbelievably better.

          My doctor demanded I lose weight and drop my blood sugar to continue treatment. I must add I am a cancer survivor, diabetic, overweight and have breathing issues. That means I am the 2% that dies from this virus. I am proud to say I lost over 30 pounds and significantly dropped my blood sugar. I am grateful for my doctor who I credit for saving my life.

          In closing, I am encouraging Oklahoma doctors to take courage and begin treating COVID with Hydroxychloroquine. I am asking Oklahomans to demand our state allow the use of Hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID. Let’s stop the fear, learn the facts and restore Oklahoma. God bless you, your family, Oklahoma and our magnificent Nation.”

          Justin (JJ) Humphrey represents Oklahoma House District 19”

          end excerpt

        • Another:

          https://time.com/5880191/long-haul-covid-19/

          Some Coronavirus Patients Are Reporting Symptoms That Last Months. Nobody Knows Exactly How to Treat Them

          “Kayla Brim laughed when she learned it could take 10 days to get her COVID-19 test results back. “I thought, ‘Okay, well, within 10 days I should be fine,’” she remembers.

          That was on July 2. More than a month later, Brim is still far from fine.

          Prior to the pandemic, the 28-year-old from Caldwell, Idaho, juggled homeschooling her two kids with her work as a makeup artist—she was supposed to open her own salon in July. Now, she suffers daily from shortness of breath, exhaustion, excruciating headaches, brain fog, neuropathy, high blood pressure and loss of taste and smell. She feels like “a little old lady,” completely knocked out by simple tasks like making lunch for her children. She’s working just enough to help pay the bills and the lease on her empty salon, but she has no idea when she’ll be able to work full-time again, and no idea how she and her husband will manage financially if she can’t. “Half of my day is spent trying to sleep, and the other half of it is trying to pretend like I’m okay—and I don’t know when I’ll be okay,” Brim says.

          This is “long-haul” COVID-19. Even young, healthy people can become long-haulers (as many call themselves), left unable to work, lead a normal life or, some days, get out of bed. The consequences for each individual can be devastating—and at scale, they’re staggering. Over time, long-haul coronavirus may force hundreds of thousands of people out of work and into doctor’s offices, shouldering the double burden of lost wages and hefty medical bills for the indeterminate future. To treat them, the health care system may have to stretch already-thin resources to the breaking point.”

          end excerpt

          Timely, early treatment with HCQ might prevent a lot of this suffering.

          • I read an article yesterday claiming that the reason the sense of smell is affected is because most of the ACE2 receptors in the nose are concentrated in the region that controls smell and they speculate that this might be where the Wuhan virus initially makes its intrusion into the human body.

            I wonder if wearing nose plugs while in public spaces might be a successful strategy to preventing infection.

    • Claims of permanent and/or long term damage at this point are dubious.

      It is only been 2-6 months since infection, depending on the individual patient. So it is way to early to make any assessment of long term damage.

      Secondly it ignores the human body’s well known ability and curative/healing powers. The claims come across as strictly scare tactics. Seems the covid somehow turns off the body’s healing powers simply because it is covid.

      • Always, always, always consider medical treatments’ side effects when hearing these kinds of reports. Virus porn junkies never take those into account, and consequently ascribe mythical powers to the virus.

        Side effects can be long-lingering depending on the treatment. One of the standard treatments for SARS, methylprednisolone (corticosteroid), caused osteonecrosis several months after treatment. The guy in this video was treated for covid with that drug (MATH+ protocol) and experienced symptoms a month or two later that might be side effects of his treatment.

        https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1280851206190051330

        • I heard it can shut down entire economies! We better lock everything down until we find out!

      • “Or just order quercetin in advance from Amazon. Dr. Zelenko recommends it as an equivalent zinc ionophore.”

        I stared taking quercetin on a daily basis about two weeks ago.

        You say quercetin is an “equivalent” to HCQ. I know it is an ionophore, but what I don’t know is how closely it mimics HCQ in the body. In other words, would quercentin be sufficient by itself and serve as a good substitute for HCQ?

        • Quercetin is just as effective as a Zn-ionophore (I take it). HCQ has further anti-viral properties as well. One doctor Fauci touted HCQ as a good treatment in the original SARS (not SARS-CoV-2).

    • I heard that yesterday the Democrat Governor of Minnesota quietly authorized the use of HCQ.

      I also learned, much to my surprise, that Diamond & Silk, the politically savvy conservative black sisters who appeared on Fox News Channel were fired for apparently promoting HCQ. I would like to know more about this story. It sounds like the sisters got a raw deal if that was all there was to it. Others on Fox News Channel also promote HCQ but they don’t get fired for that activity.

      Perhaps I don’t know the entire story. Maybe there is something else, too. I would like to hear the story. I like Diamond & Silk.

  16. Does anyone know if they also, as a control, tested against the four other common human coronaviruses that regularly cause flu/covid like infections during winter?

  17. For anyone interested, the whistle-blowing nurse from NYC has documented her experiences in a book.

    Frontline Nurse Speaks Out About Lethal Protocols
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/08/joseph-mercola/frontline-nurse-speaks-out-about-lethal-protocols/

    There’s a bit of humor in her dystopian nightmare. The only patient to survive being intubated did so because he woke from his medically-induced coma and extubated himself. Apparently, he was a drug user that the coma meds didn’t have quite the same effect on as normal people.

    In a four-week period, Olszewski only witnessed one patient put on mechanical ventilation who survived, and that’s because the sedation didn’t quite take and he ended up extubating himself. The sad tragedy is he didn’t have any medical indications warranting him being placed on a ventilator to begin with.

    Her original video:

  18. Open question: Is there a test that can be considered near-conclusive for Covid-19 immunity?

    It’s my understanding that current antibodies tests are for a temporary “1st responder” type of antibody that disappears after the body develops a more specific anti-SARS-CoV-2 permanent antibody or T cell.

    I’m on the West Coast and had more likelihood than the average person to come into close contact with people who had traveled to China. Last January, my family and I all had various degrees of flu symptoms, none anywhere near severe, however. Also, we have had none since. In June, I had a negative antibody test. Another family member tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 in July. I haven’t worn a mask since Walmart and other major retailers announced they weren’t going to prevent the maskless from entering their stores, a few weeks ago now. Even before that, I always pulled my mask down off my nose or lifted it away from my face so I could breathe without complication. I’m over 65 and thus am supposedly more at risk – and I guess even more so because of my personal mask use (or lack thereof).

    I figure chances are slim because of politics, but I’m keenly looking for a test such as I described.

  19. Academics are SOOO slow – I woked out 90-99% of cases were benign so far more people had got it back in March.

  20. Here’s an update of CDC data.
    Not much has changed.

    Start close to home, Colorado.
    Denver, Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have more Covid-19 deaths than the ENTIRE rest of the state.
    That takes some kind of special (BLUE) talent.
    The top ten counties for Covid-19 deaths account for 90%!!! of them.
    How is Covid-19 a state-wide problem??

    Six states are responsible for over half of the Covid-19 deaths. That’s more than the ENTIRE rest of the country.
    That takes some kind of special (BLUE) talent.
    The top ten states account for over 2/3rd of Covid-19 deaths.
    In five states Covid-19 is a significant cause of death. In the other states – not so much.
    How is Covid-19 a national problem???

    The 75+ demographic at 58.4% accounts for more Covid-19 deaths than the entire rest of the population. Expanding to include the 65+ accounts for almost 80%. Adding the 55+ accounts for over 90%.
    The 24 years and under demographic accounts for 0.02% of the Covid-19 deaths.
    The young and healthy demographic is not threatened by Covid-19.

    How does the data support the notion that Covid-19 is a wide-spread, highly contagious and lethal pandemic?

    Answer: It doesn’t ‘cause Covid-19 is a scam-demic to assert control, trash civil liberties and push political agendas.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/?fbclid=IwAR3U3Kzu9YI3OcWejpZSpuv-iH2SC378E-_qMjq4KvX43P6ZVaC0hmK_7Jk

  21. When China locked down Wuhan they had five refrigeration trailers and two meat warehouses full of bodies and had to bring in portable cremation units that then ran for about 4 months to get rid of the evidence.

    Something like 6100 deaths known to have been caused by the virus or presumed to be hot (other with same symptoms) prior to lockdown.

  22. PCR is a problem, because in addition to picking up other corona viruses, it seems to identify lots of people who either have asymptomatic cases or had it in the past. In this video, the introduction of a PCR test late in the Swine flu caused hugh increase in cases that was not reflected in morbidity and mortality statistics. Cummins also has another video from a month ago that deals with seasonality and north/south differences.

  23. And more people are immune to its effects with progressive safe sanctuaries for its residence and reproduction. Treatment with HCQ (i.e. border control)+Zn (i.e. Planned Pathogen)+AZ, and closure of Planned Parent facilities (notably NYC), would have dramatically reduced disease progression and excess deaths. Regulating migration and immigration would have also been a positive contribution to reduce exposure of Americans at risk.

  24. I estimated back in January that we were seeing 1 in 20 cases. It isn’t because I am smart or a medical researcher, I just know my history. It accounts for why the spread accelerated so quickly. Any typical thoughtful person would have seen the same thing. Why this surprises those in the medical field – anyone in the medical field – is just pathetic.

    We will be reaching herd immunity much faster than people suspect. The only questions that remain, is how long immunity lasts and how fast the stupid virus mutates. I predict the mutation is fairly slow, and that immunity lasts longer than people currently think (they are saying 3 months). If immunity lasted only 3 months then this virus would have broken out into a pandemic much sooner (so I think). Immunity is likely to last at leas 9 to 12 months based on the virus being contained so long.

    If mutation is slow enough then outbreaks will be every 8 to 10 years. If it’s quick, then expect outbreaks to be every 2 to 3 years. A vaccine will relegate this to a niche disease.

    If immunity is just 3 months, the only thing begin a constant pandemic and health is a vaccine. I just do not but this scenario as yet (lacking any proof). This could then replace Flu as the most prevalent seasonal killer, but I am guessing it won’t.

    Here is the really ironic lesson – we should be encouraging children to get the disease before they get older to develop a strong immunity. By closing schools we slow the disease spread down but make it a bigger problem in the future (lacking a good vaccine). Yes, some children will get the disease and have severe symptoms, bit most will have trivial symptoms and then be stronger in the future against the disease. Yes more older people will die but more younger people will live longer lives. It comes down to a a decision on what is important – more healthy years total or more elderly unhealthy years right now. It sucks to be my age and know that I am expendable, but it’s right for the young people I love.

    • Seems to me the only way to protect the old people is to severely lock them down whatever the cost then lift all restrictions to blast it thru the rest of the population.

      This continuous low level rate caused by lockdowns and restrictions just means eventually it will get into the homes

  25. If we take at face value the numbers that we are given, i.e.:

    – Infection rate is 3

    – A person becomes infectious on day 2 of being infected and remains infectious for up to 14 days

    – This is a “novel” virus never encountered by man, ergo, we are all susceptible

    Then, the math says that the entire global population would be infected within 40 days of this virus making its appearance.

    Day 1 – 1 infected person
    Day 3 – 4 infected persons (the original person + 3 other individuals)
    Day 5 – 16 infected persons …

    The question therefore is:

    How long does it take for the medical profession to identify and then come to agreement that a new virus has appeared on the scene? Especially, a virus that presents all the symptoms of a very common illness?

    That being the case, of course infections are far more widespread than we could ever test for.

    On the other hand, already by the end of February, due to the data we had from the cruise ships and war ships, we already knew that not all would be susceptible to this virus.

    So….

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