Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #410

Quote of the Week: “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” – Voltaire

Number of the Week: 25 to 100 times greater


By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Disruptive Wind: The electrical grid operators provide reliable electricity with narrow tolerances. Generally, grid operators plan that power sources can be shut down for maintenance, usually in the spring and the fall. To keep costs down, grid operators desire to have maximum operating capacity in the summer (cooling) and in the winter (heating). According to the EIA’s description of electricity generating capacity:

To ensure a steady supply of electricity to consumers, operators of the electric power system, or grid, call on electric power plants to produce and place the right amount of electricity on the grid at every moment to instantaneously meet and balance electricity demand.

  • In general, power plants do not generate electricity at their full capacities at every hour of the day. Three major types of generating units vary by intended usage:
  • Base load generating units normally supply all or part of the minimum, or base, demand (load) on the electric power grid. A base load generating unit runs continuously, producing electricity at a nearly constant rate throughout most of the day. Nuclear power plants generally operate as base load service, because of their low fuel costs and the technical limitations on load responsive operation. Geothermal and biomass units are also often operated in base load because of their low fuel costs. Many of the large hydro facilities, several coal plants, and an increasing number of natural gas-fired generators, particularly those in combined power applications, also supply base load power.
  • Peak load generating units help to meet electricity demand when demand is at its highest, or peak, such as in late afternoon when electricity use for air conditioning and heating increases during hot weather and cold weather respectively. These so-called peaking units are generally natural gas [turbine only] or petroleum fueled generators. In general, these generators are relatively inefficient and are costly to operate, but provide high- value service during peak demand periods. In some cases, pumped storage hydropower and conventional hydropower units also support grid operations by providing power during periods of peak demand.
  • Intermediate load generating units comprise the largest generating sector and provide load responsive operation between base load and peaking service. The demand profile varies over time and intermediate sources are in general technically and economically suited for following changes in load. Many energy sources and technologies are used in intermediate operation. Natural gas-fired combined cycle units, which currently provide more generation than any other technology, generally operate as intermediate sources.

Additional categories of electricity generators include

  • Intermittent renewable resource generators powered by wind and solar energy that generate electricity only when these resources are available (i.e., when it’s windy or sunny). When these generators are operating, they tend to reduce the amount of electricity required from other generators to supply the electric power grid.
  • Electricity storage systems/facilities, including hydroelectric pumped storage, solar-thermal storage, batteries, flywheels, and compressed air systems. These systems typically use (or purchase) and store electricity that is generated during off-peak electricity demand periods (when electricity prices are relatively low), and they provide (or sell) the stored electricity during periods of high or peak electricity demand (when electricity prices are relatively high). Some facilities use electricity produced with intermittent renewable energy sources (wind and solar) when the renewable resource availability is high and provide the stored electricity when the renewable energy resource is low or unavailable. Non-hydro storage systems can also provide ancillary services to the electric power grid. Energy storage applications inherently use more electricity than they provide. Pumped-storage hydro systems use more electricity to pump water to water storage reservoirs than they produce with the stored water, and non-hydro storage systems have energy conversion and storage losses. Therefore, electricity storage facilities have net negative electricity generation balances. Gross generation provides a better indicator about the activity level of storage technologies and is provided in the data releases of the EIA-923 Power Plant Operations Report. [TWTW knows of no hydro-storage facility that operates successfully with solar or wind, only.]
  • Distributed generators are connected to the electricity grid, but they primarily supply some or all of the electricity demand of individual buildings or facilities. Sometimes, these systems may generate more electricity than the facility consumes, in which case the surplus electricity is sent to the grid. Most small-scale solar photovoltaic systems are distributed generators.
  • At the end of 2019, the United States had about 1,100,546 MW—or 1.1 billion kilowatts (kW)—of total utility-scale electricity generating capacity and about 23 million kW of small-scale solar photovoltaic electricity generating capacity.

Generating units fueled primarily with natural gas account for the largest share of utility-scale electricity generating capacity in the United States.

According to the report: the shares of utility-scale electricity generation capacity by primary energy source in 2018 were:

Natural gas: 43%; Coal 21%; Renewables 24%; [14% nonhydroelectric and 9% hydroelectric, perhaps incorrectly, the EIA considers all hydroelectric seasonal], Nuclear 9%; Petroleum 3%; Other 0.5%.

It is the nonhydroelectric renewables that have become a political fad and a growth industry.

“Wind energy’s share of total utility-scale electricity generating capacity in the United States grew from 0.2% in 1990 to about 9% in 2019, and its share of total annual utility-scale electricity generation grew from less than 1% in 1990 to about 7% in 2019.”

“Solar energy’s share of total U.S. utility-scale electricity generation in 2019 was about 1.8%, up from less than 0.1% in 1990.” The above is from: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php

It is important to note that when dealing with capacity factors as stated, the calculations are the percentage the nameplate capacity of the wind turbines and solar units involved compared to what is actually delivered over a period of several years. Not only when winds are at optimal velocities of the sun is shining brightly overhead. Also, the efficiency is not that of a particular turbine to capture the wind, or the maximum efficiency of a solar unit.

Both wind and solar are nondispatchable, unreliable, and must be backed-up by other forms of generation. The question remains how unreliable are they? The EIA estimates the capacity factor for offshore wind is 44% and onshore wind is 40% — about half of combined cycle natural gas (87%), advanced coal (85%) and advanced nuclear (90%). But the simple number of 44% for offshore wind disguises what is occurring. What is the required backup to wind assuming a 99.9% reliability is demanded?

Analyst Paul Homewood discusses a web site, EnergyNumbers.info., which provides much needed information on how reliably individual offshore wind farms provide electricity to the UK, Denmark, Belgium, and Germany. For each country, these data are shown graphically as well. For the UK and Denmark, the separate sites gives the combined value of all the wind farms serving that country. The sources of data are official sources, such as Ofgem and Elexon for the UK. Ofgem is the government regulator for the electricity and gas markets in Great Britain. Elexon administers the balancing and settlement process for the entire wholesale electricity sector in Great Britain.

The web site, energynumbers.info, appears to be run by an advocate of wind power. According to the web site, the UK installed nameplate capacity ending in 2019 is 8,542 MW and the rolling 12-month capacity factor 40.6%. Homewood found the load duration curves particularly interesting and found. He states:

“It shows the time distribution of capacity loads, both for individual wind farms and overall.

So, for instance, the load factor was 36.3% or more for 50% of the time, ie the median. (This arguably is a more important measure than the average load).

The curve for all windfarms is for the last five years.

If we look at extremes, we find that load is below 20% for 31% of the time, in other words below half of the average.

At the other end, output is above 80% for 12% of the time.

In other words, loading is either extremely high or extremely low for 43% of the year. This gives the lie to claims that wind power is reliable most of the time, and that output is smoothed because of the widespread geographic distribution – in other words, that the wind always blows somewhere!

In particular, it is commonly claimed that winds at sea are much less volatile than over land.”

TWTW looked further and found that over the data period, for 3% of the time the capacity factor was 89.8% or higher (about that of nuclear energy); for 36% of the time the capacity factor was 49.9% or higher; for 50% of the time, 36% or higher; and for 90% of the time, 6.4% or higher. At the extreme low end, for 99% of the time the capacity factor was 0.5% or higher.

Source: Andrew ZP Smith, ORCID: 0000-0003-3289-2237; “UK offshore wind capacity factors”. Retrieved from https://energynumbers.info/uk-offshore-wind-capacity-factors on 2020-05-22 16:36 GMT

The numbers for Denmark are similar

Although these numbers come largely from operations in the North Sea or the Irish Sea, unless contrary evidence is given, one can expect similar unreliable performance for other offshore wind power facilities. Thus, grid operators who desires to deliver reliable power 99.9% of the time need backup power available equal to that of the total offshore wind facilities. The costs of this backup should be part of the estimate for costs of offshore wind. It is not.

Further, those promoting offshore wind power fail to discuss unreliability. In lending, those who provide evidence that  they will repay the loan on time are considered reliable, prime borrowers. Those who provide no such evidence are considered subprime. Clearly, offshore wind power is not reliable – subprime – and the promoters should be considered similar to promoters of subprime loans. See links under Energy Issues – Non-US, Energy Issues – US, and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Storage.


Needed Questions: On her blog, Jo Nova states three questions that reporters should have asked when interviewing proponents of solar power concerning Australia:

“1.       Is there any country around the world which has a high penetration of intermittent renewables and cheap electricity? Name them…

2.         If renewables are so cheap, why is China secretly building more coal power plants?

3.         Australian electricity wholesale costs were around $30 per MWh for years on the national grid, then we added 2 million solar panels. Shouldn’t the prices have gone down?”

The same questions apply to wind power. See links under Energy Issues – Australia and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.


Modeling for Public Policy Issues: The Right Climate Stuff team insisted that modeling used in public policy should be well tested against all physical evidence available, corrections made when needed, and that the best physical evidence available be used. The assumptions must be transparent. John Robson presents what he calls the iron law of modeling regarding climate models and the failure of modelers to present the findings that the climate is not warming alarmingly:

“The upper-end models of temperature increase, and even of the increase in CO2 meant to cause runaway temperature increases, are the ones that frighten policymakers into demanding ever-more stringent policies in the hope of getting us down to the low end of CO2 accumulation forecasts, and in consequence bring more grant money to the modelers to give the politicians more of what they want. It’s a closed circle impenetrable even to data that is readily available to the participants.

In consequence, the modelers never get around to telling policy makers that we are already at the lower bound, and all indications are that we are going to remain there, so the extra stringency isn’t needed. The problem is not in our computers but in our modelers.”

Similarly, Kevin Dayaratna discusses the failure of the COVID-19 model by the Imperial College used to justify lockdowns, when the evidence is now clearly showing that the age groups most at risk are those 65 or older and lockdowns are unnecessary for younger age groups. He states:

“This isn’t the first-time bad models have made their way into policy. As we discussed in our work, statistical models can be useful tools for guiding policy, but they are only as credible as the assumptions on which they are based.

“It is fundamentally important for models used in policy to be made publicly available, have assumptions clearly stated, and have their robustness to changes to these assumptions tested. Models also need to be updated as time goes on in line with the best available evidence.

“Bottom line: The Imperial College model didn’t meet any of these criteria. And sadly, its model was one of the inputs relied on as the basis for locking down two countries.” See links under Model Issues.


Transparency: Given the COVID-19 models, it is ironic that the EPA just closed the comment period on a new rule requiring transparency in the science used for public policy. Many organizations objected to the new rule, including ones using the word science in their names as well as a group of 100 law professors who called the proposal unlawful. Apparently, secrecy is vital for science to advance and transparency is unlawful. The comments by SEPP included:

Transparency is critical in applying the scientific method to incorporate new data and concepts in scientific understanding and to remove errors of the past. The scientific method requires constant testing against physical evidence as that evidence is being compiled.

As those who follow the COVID-19 controversy may realize, to create models that give realistic results requires both a solid, well tested model and solid, realistic data fitting the issue. No matter how good the model, if the data are inappropriate, the results are poor. A critical question is: How good are the numbers (measurements) in defining the issue?

After examples using data from various countries the comment continued:

No matter how good an infection model may be, using data from China would not be appropriate for the US. Yet, all too frequently modelers use inappropriate data and produce inappropriate results they claim to be meaningful. Such errors in use of data or models should not be tolerated in regulatory science any more than in medical research. Complete transparency is needed.

Some argue that personal medical records may be revealed if transparency becomes the norm. However, privacy can be protected. For example, The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports “Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts by Sex, Age, and State.” Nothing is revealed that can be traced to individual personal medical records.

These data are valuable in adjusting policy to meet current needs. To protect the health of Americans, The Science and Environmental Policy Project urges the Environmental Protection Agency to adopt a policy of complete transparency in rule making, and adjust rules as evidence changes, which it will in a more complex world.”

See links under EPA and other Regulators on the March.


Additions and Corrections: Last week TWTW erroneously gave the chemical formula of Nitrous Oxide as NO2, it is actually N2O.




Since 2012, SEPP conducted an annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:

  • The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
  • The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
  • The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
  • The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.

The eight past recipients, Lisa Jackson (12), Barrack Obama (13), John Kerry (14), Ernest Moniz (15), Michael Mann (16), Christiana Figueres (17), Jerry Brown (18), and AOC (19) are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you.


Number of the Week: 25 to 100 times greater: According to NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa Observatory is about 410 parts per million (ppm). By contrast, water vapor varies by region, but is about 1 to 4% of the atmosphere (10,000 to 40,000 ppm). Thus, the concentration of water vapor is about 25 to 100 times greater than the secondary greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide.

In the 1979 Charney Report, water vapor was considered to be the most important greenhouse gas, greatly amplifying the modest influence of carbon dioxide, and greatly increasing the greenhouse effect.

NOAA measures water vapor at various altitudes at Boulder, Colorado, Lauder, New Zealand, and Hilo, Hawaii. Yet, in its annual discussion the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) in Spring 2020, NOAA presenters bring up Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Nitrous Oxide (N2O), Methane (CH4) and 15 minor halogenated gases. It is as if water vapor no longer exists as a greenhouse gas.


According to Remote Sensing Systems, a competitor of University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) in presenting satellite based atmospheric temperature trends:

“Over 99% of the atmospheric moisture is in the form of water vapor, and this vapor is the principal source of the atmospheric energy that drives the development of weather systems on short time scales and influences the climate on longer time scales.

“Water vapor is a critical component of Earth’s climate systems. It is the Earth’s primary greenhouse gas, trapping more heat than carbon dioxide. Movement of water vapor, and its associated latent heat of vaporization, is also responsible for about 50% of the transport of heat from the tropics to the poles. The movement of water vapor is also important for determining the amount of precipitation a region receives.”


Based on their web sites, it appears that no US government laboratories are monitoring and reporting changes in atmospheric water vapor. Thus, they ignore the most important greenhouse gas, which keeps the landmasses from freezing at night.


Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

The sun is experiencing a less active phase called ‘solar minimum,’ but it won’t cause an ice age

Ashley Strickland-Profile-Image

By Ashley Strickland, CNN, May 19, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


Link to NASA Blog: There Is No Impending ‘Mini Ice Age’

By Staff, NASA Global Climate Change, Feb 13, 2020


“What does this mean? The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum.”

[SEPP Comment: NASA using surface temperatures for political promotion?]


Planet Of The Greens

By Staff, GWPF TV, May 18, 2020

ClimateFeedback review of PragerU video challenges good news on polar bears

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, May 18, 2020

Facebook restricts PragerU’s page and limits the reach of its posts after disputed fact-check

By Tom Parker, Reclaim the Net, May 20, 2020

Met Office Are Censoring Critical Comments

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 21, 2020

[SEPP Comment: After changing “global warming” to “global heating.”]

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013


Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

Download with no charge:


Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

Download with no charge:


Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008


Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019


Challenging the Orthodoxy

Climate change and a pandemic of lies

By Andrew Montford, Conservative Woman, May 18, 2020

“The health establishment was looking away when the coronavirus struck; it had other priorities. If you look at the World Health Organisation’s list of health threats, number one is climate change. Pandemics were down in third place, behind ‘non-communicable diseases’ such as diabetes and obesity.” [Boldface added.]

Green Electricity Delusions

By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, May 22, 2020


COVID-19 Highlights the Need to Ensure Reliable Electricity

By Jonathan Chanis, Real Clear Energy, May 18, 2020


Science Can’t Solve the Toughest Tasks

By Yonoson Rosenblum, Mishpacha, May 13, 2020 [H/t GWPF]


“Much of what is called “science” today does not fit the definition, in particular the mathematical modeling to predict the future. That modeling inevitably depends on multiple assumptions or approximations and often relies on data that is itself highly suspect. A full picture of climate systems depends on knowledge of 20 or more sub-specialties, and no modeler possesses that. Not surprisingly, neither the global warming models nor those developed during the current plague have proven to have much predictive value.”

Highly Touted Alarmist Hurricane ‘Study’ Sets New Low for Misleading Deception

By James Taylor, Climate Realism, May 21, 2020


Defending the Orthodoxy

Robust Clean Energy Jobs Will Be a Hallmark of the Recovery Ahead

By Charles Hernick, Real Clear Energy, May 22, 2020


[SEPP Comment: A scattering of partially baked ideas. Petroleum, rock oil, replaced US whale oil because whales were becoming scarce and the oil became very expensive. Coal replaced wood, because the forests were eliminated – there are little virgin (old growth) forests in the east. After a discussion of energy density, the author shifts to wind and solar, yet they are far less dense than fossil fuels yet fails to understand land requirements.  To produce an average of 1 GW of electricity requires far less than a square mile of land area for coal, natural gas, or nuclear, but requires wind turbines to be spread out over about 300 square miles. Apples and oranges.  Fuels have energy density: energy per unit mass or energy per unit volume.  Wind and solar have a far less energy density.  power density per unit of energy produced for each unit of land required. Further, in a well- functioning economy, fewer employees are desired for utilities because greater number of employees drive up the costs.]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Dithering officials are holding back the next wave of innovation

By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, May 16, 2020


We Must Stop Falling for the Coronavirus Moral Crusade

By Larry Bell, Newsmax, May 18, 2020


A PhD in sounding like an expert

By John Robson, Climate Change Nexus, May 20, 2020

ESG for Thee, but Not for Me [

By Rupert Darwall, National Review, May 20, 2020


[SEPP Comment: In the current language ESG stands for environmental, social, and governance.]

What Crisis?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 18, 2020

Change in US Administrations

Trump Expands Regulatory Rollback, Including for Power, Amid Economic Fallout

By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, May 21, 2020

Trump Signs Executive Order Cutting Federal Regulations to Spur Economic Growth

By Jack Phillips, The Epoch Times, May 19, 2020


Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

Global greening is the real Green New Deal

By John Robson, Climate Change Nexus, May 20, 2020

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Air pollution returns to pre-lockdown levels in China after falling 40 percent

By John Bowden, The Hill, May 19, 2020


[SEPP Comment: According to a Harvard Public Health study, COVID-19 deaths should be booming. Are they?]

Seeking a Common Ground

Everything Important In Life Involves Tradeoffs

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, May 16, 2020


Innovation Can’t Be Forced, but It Can Be Quashed

By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, May 16, 2020


Let’s Hope This Pandemic Isn’t a New Abnormal

By Larry Bell, Newsmax, May 22, 2020


No Returning to Normal Until We Relearn Trust

By Larry Bell, Newsmax, May 20, 2020


Science, Policy, and Evidence

The Keystone Cops Vs. Coronavirus

By David Shales, ACSH, May 13, 2020


The Politics of Fear

For economist Robert Higgs, Covid-19 is just the latest emergency justifying expanded government power.

By John Tierney, City Journal, May 20, 2020


UK Expert-Swamp Sabotage: close borders 3 months and 10 million visitors too late

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 20, 2020


Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

Reconstructing Historical Precipitation in the Amazon Basin Since 1786

Granato-Souza, D., Stahle, D.W., Barbosa, A.C., Feng, S., Torbenson, M.C.A., de Assis Pereira, G., Schongart, J., Barbosa, J.P. and Griffin, D. 2019. Tree rings and rainfall in the equatorial Amazon. Climate Dynamics 52: 1857-1869. May 22, 2020


The Impact of CO2 on the Growth and Medicinal Properties of a Perennial Herb

Qiang, Q., Gao, Y., Yu, B., Wang, M., Ni, W., Li, S., Zhang, T., Li, W. and Lin, L. 2020. Elevated CO2 enhances growth and differentially affects saponin content in Paris polyphylla var. yunnanensis. Industrial Crops & Products 147: 112124. May 20, 2020


The Productivity Response of Six Macroalgal Species to Ocean Acidification and Warming

Hernández, C.A., Sangil, C., Fanai, A., Hernández, J.C. 2018. Macroalgal response to a warmer ocean with higher CO2 concentration. Marine Environmental Research 136: 99-105. May 18, 2020


“In concluding their paper, the authors write their results ‘suggest that a lower-pH ocean, according to current predictions, would enhance primary production in the studied algal species,’ albeit an ‘associated increase in temperature would have varied effects.’ Such an assessment is refreshingly different from the doom and gloom scenarios that climate alarmists consistently insist will befall marine life in the future.”

Model Issues

The iron law of modeling

By John Robson, Climate Change Nexus, May 20, 2020

Failures of an Influential COVID-19 Model Used to Justify Lockdowns

By Kevin Dayaratna, The Daily Signal, May 16, 2020

Coronavirus: Applying Influenza Pandemic Lessons To COVID-19

By Alex Berezow, ACHS, May 13, 2020


Link to report: COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint

By More Moore, Lipsitch, Barry, Osterholm, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Apr 30, 2020


Computer modelling for Covid-19 was FATALLY flawed. What if I told you that climate change models are EVEN WORSE?

By Rob Lyons, RT (Russia), May 21, 2020


Early March Did Not Predict the Future

Certain adamant coronavirus declarations look foolish now.

By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, May 20, 2020

Measurement Issues — Surface

1919 or 2019? Nicolet Edition

By John Robson, Climate Change Nexus, May 20, 2020

Changing Weather

Busy Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2020

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 21, 2020

Government predicts busy Atlantic hurricane season

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 21, 2020


Link to press release: Busy Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2020

Multiple climate factors indicate above-normal activity is most likely

By Staff, NOAA, May 21, 2020


New study could help better predict rainfall during El Niño

By Staff, Science Daily, May 13, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


Link to paper: How MJO Teleconnections and ENSO Interference Impacts U.S. Precipitation

By Arcodia, Kirtman, and Siqueira, American Meteorological Society, May 1, 2020


The BLOB is Back! And it is Affecting our Weather!

By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, May 20, 2020


“As long as the BLOB-related warm water along our coast sticks around, our minimum temperatures each day will be several degrees above normal.  Being BLOB-savvy, I took advantage of its moderating effects and put in my tomato plants early. They are quite happy and growing well.”

Bucking The ‘Warming’: Mid May ‘Ice Saints’ In Europe Have Intensified Since 1996!

Why have the Ice Saints gotten colder over the past 25 years?

By Josef Kowatsch, Die kalte Sonne (Translated and edited by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, May 19, 2020

“Global warming should mean that the period of May 11-15 – known as the Ice Saints in Europe – when late spring frosts often occur, would become less frosty over the years. But the opposite has been the case since 1995.”

London’s Emissions Cut Brings Heatwave!!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 20, 2020

Lagged compound occurrence of droughts and pluvials globally over the past seven decades

By Xiaogang He and Justin Sheffield, Geophysical Research Letters, May 13, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


What is the difference between partly sunny and partly cloudy?

By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, May 22, 2020


Changing Climate

New Study Indicates Iceland Must Have Been 3°C Warmer During The Early Holocene To Match The Glacier Record

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 21, 2020

Link to paper: The onset of neoglaciation in Iceland and the 4.2 ka event

By Áslaug Geirsdóttir, et al. Climate of the Past, Jan 8, 2019


Link to another paper: Lipid Biomarkers Quantify Holocene Summer Temperature and Ice Cap Sensitivity in Icelandic Lakes

By David J. Harning, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, Jan 21, 2020


Changing Seas

Glowing to Survive: Reefs’ Neon Color Show a Defense Against Coral Bleaching

By Bianca Bruno, Courthouse News Service, May 21, 2020

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Climate change is turning Antarctica green, study finds

By Patrick Galey, Paris (AFP), May 20, 2020


Link to paper: Remote sensing reveals Antarctic green snow algae as important terrestrial carbon sink

By Andrew Gray, Nature Communications, May 20, 2020


[SEPP Comment: The greening may be the result of increased CO2, which reduces temperature stress on plant life.]

More Tough Times For Arctic Alarmists

By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 22, 2020


Changing Earth

What were the local weather impacts of the eruption of Mount St. Helens?

By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, May 18, 2020


“The thick volcanic cloud had a huge impact on surface temperature.  During the day, the volcanic plume reflected some of the solar radiation back to space and absorbed the rest, leaving little to reach the surface. Thus, during the day, the volcanic dust cloud cooled the surface.

“At night, the opposite was true.  The cloud absorbed infrared radiation leaving the surface and emitted infrared radiation back to the surface; this, stopped or reduced the nighttime cooling.”

Un-Science or Non-Science?

Modern sea-level rise linked to human activities, Rutgers research reaffirms

By Staff Writers, New Brunswick NJ (SPX) May 18, 2020


Link to paper: Cenozoic sea-level and cryospheric evolution from deep-sea geochemical and continental margin records

By Kenneth G. Miller. et al. Science Advances May 15, 2020


“The paper reconstructed the history of sea levels and glaciation since the age of the dinosaurs ended. Scientists compared estimates of the global average sea level, based on deep-sea geochemistry data, with continental margin records. Continental margins, which include the relatively shallow ocean waters over a continental shelf, can extend hundreds of miles from the coast.”

[SEPP Comment: The continents have remained stable? Is plate tectonics a myth dreamed up by geologists at Exxon?]

Supercomputer model simulations reveal cause of Neanderthal extinction

By Institute for Basic Science, Phys Org. May 20, 2020


Quantifying the potential causes of Neanderthal extinction: Abrupt climate change versus competition and interbreeding

By Alex Timmermann, Quaternary Science Reviews, June 15, 2020


Lowering Standards

Public Confidence In The Media Collapses To Record Lows

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 21, 2020


Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

No silver lining: The COVID-19 pandemic won’t slow climate change

A one-year drop in decline in global CO2 emissions is in store. But is a full decade of comparable reductions of 8% each year even remotely likely?

By Daniel Grossman, Yale Climate Connections, May 18, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


“The coronavirus pandemic still has a long way to go, despite widespread claims to the contrary, and the COVID-19 virus has already killed at least 300,000 people from all around the globe, about one-third of those fatalities just in the U.S.”

[SEPP Comment: If one believes data showing that total deaths in the USA (93,561) are 20 times those in China (4634). Worldometers, May 20, 2020]

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Hurricanes are increasing in intensity, long-term data indicate

By Ed Adamczyk, Washington DC (UPI), May 18, 2020


“The maximum sustained winds of hurricanes are increasing around the world, according to an analysis of 40 years of satellite imagery published on Monday.”

[SEPP Comment: Confusing estimates from satellite imagery with surface and airborne measurements? Confusing apples with oranges.]

London’s CO2 emissions cut by almost 60% during lockdown

Measurements from BT Tower observatory show impact of reduced activity in UK’s capital due to COVID-19 pandemic

News Release, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, May 19, 2020 [H/t WUWT]


‘The Taste of Bordeaux Is Going to Change.’ Under Threat From Climate Change and Coronavirus, French Winemakers Try Experimenting

By Melissa Godin, Time, May 22, 2020 [H/t WUWT]


[SEPP Comment: French winemakers have been experimenting for a couple thousand years. What is new? Actually, the more serious issue is carbon dioxide fertilization that will make the grapes ripen faster and create more sugars. England is producing good white wines and may be able to produce good red wines again – without the need for Canadian rootstock to protect against freezing.]

COVID-19 crisis causes 17% drop in global carbon emissions

New Release, University of East Anglia, May 19, 2020 [H/t WUWT]


Link to paper: ‘Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement’,

By Corinne Le Quéré, Nature Climate Change, May 19, 2020


From the abstract: Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport.

[SEPP Comment: What about 3 sigma? Foolish error brackets!]

It’s only May but why wait?

By John Robson, Climate Change Nexus, May 20, 2020


Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Come fire and high water from… cars in Kelowna?

Video, John Robson, May 10, 2020


Claim: Climate Change Killed the Giant Kangaroo, not Humans

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 19, 2020


Link to paper: Extinction of eastern Sahul [Australia] megafauna coincides with sustained environmental deterioration

By Scott A. Hocknull, et al. Nature Communications, May 18, 2020


Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

COVID-19 Quickly Becomes Most Important U.S. Problem

By Megan Brenan, Gallup, Apr 21, 2020 [H/t GWPF]


Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

Climate Scientists Getting Company: German Virologists, Physicians “Fear For Their Freedom Of Expression”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 17, 2020


Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

Mental Health Awareness Week: GWPF Blames Growing Climate Anxiety Among Children On Irresponsible Scare-Mongering

Press Release, Global Warming Policy Forum, May 21, 2020


“According to a recent UK survey, 20% of British children are suffering from nightmares about global warming. One of the main reasons for this deplorable development are scare tactics adopted by green campaigners, educators, commentators and broadcasters to exaggerate the impact of global warming by emphasizing worst-case catastrophizing.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

Meet the people who could change the way we live

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 17, 2020


Expanding the Orthodoxy

Strike while the economy is cold

By John Robson, Climate Change Nexus, May 20, 2020


“Justin Trudeau says no relief for you unless your company commits publicly to his climate goals, thus using the threat of withholding emergency coronavirus relief funds to extort political support.”

The Unintended Consequences Of ESG Activism

By Wayne Winegarden, Forbes, May 18, 2020


Questioning European Green

Ambitious EU climate efforts could increase greenhouse gas emissions in the rest of the world

Press Release, University of Copenhagen, May 18, 2020 [H/t GWPF]


Charles Moore: Lockdown Is Showing Us The Misery That Net Zero Will Demand

By Charles Moore, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, May 16, 2020


Why Tom Burke’s Green Deal Is Pie In The Sky

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 21, 2020


Questioning Green Elsewhere

If you like the locked-down US economy, you’ll love the Green New Deal

Editorial, New York Post, May 16, 2020 [H/t GWPF]


“No Oil Bailout Is Worth the Green New Deal”

By David Middleton, WUWT, May 20, 2020

The Dark Side of Renewable Energy

By Ronald Stein, The Heartland Institute, May 19, 2020


Funding Issues

We Should Have Funded Research On Coronaviruses, Instead Of Climate Change Musicals

By Henry Miller, ACSH, May 15, 2020


“As a result, we’re now paying the price for perverse, wasteful research spending.”

Has the Coronavirus Disappeared Climate Politics?

Europe’s pandemic bailouts are trying to save the continent’s economy. Less clear is if they can save the planet.

By Paul Hockenos, Foreign Policy, May 21, 2020 [H/t GWPF]

Coronavirus pushed climate change off the NZ budget

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 19, 2020


EPA and other Regulators on the March

CEI Comments on EPA’s Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rulemaking : EPA Transparency Rule

By Marlo Lewis, Jr. CEI, May 18, 2020


EPA accused of ‘pandemic of pollution’ as Trump orders regulatory relief

By Guy Burdick, Utility Dive, May 21, 2020


EPA ‘secret science’ proposal garners 76,000 comments, many critical

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 19, 2020


A group of 100 law professors called the proposal unlawful.

EPA employees allege leadership interference with science in watchdog survey

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 20, 2020


[SEPP Comment: Given the poor quality of EPA science, this may be progress!]

Energy Issues – Non-US

Analyzing GE’s Annual Report

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 19, 2020

New Website For Wind Farm Data

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 17, 2020

Without fossil fuels, the Wuhan Flu would have us beat, Greta

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 17, 2020

Energy Issues – Australia

Solar Owners worried Big Brother AEMO wants to turn off their panels at noon in emergencies

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 22, 2020


“Handy questions journalists could’ve asked

Australia Enrages Activists, Embraces “Technology Neutral” Carbon Credits

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 21, 2020

Snow Job: Giant Pumped Hydro Scheme Set to Destroy Australia’s Favourite National Park

By Staff, Stop These Things, May 21, 2020 [H/t GWPF]

Energy Issues — US

Clean Energy Via Legislative Diktat

By Charles H. Battig, American Thinker, May 20, 2020


“Advances offshore wind. The [Virginia] Act provides that 5,200 megawatts of offshore wind generation is ‘in the public interest.’

“The Act establishes that 16,100 megawatts of solar and onshore wind is ‘in the public interest.’”

Gov. Northam signs Virginia Clean Economy Act

By Staff, NBC12, April 12, 2020


“The law requires new measures to promote energy efficiency, sets a schedule for closing old fossil fuel power plants, and requires electricity to come from 100 percent renewable sources such as solar or wind.”

Texas Bureau of Economic Geology Director Scott W. Tinker vs Energy Poverty

By David Middleton, WUWT, May 21, 2020

Lift #NeverNeeded Regulations that Make Energy More Expensive

By Marlo Lewis, Jr. CEI, May 20, 2020


New York Rejects Williams Pipeline Over Water, Climate Concerns

By Olivia Rosane, EcoWatch, May 18, 2020


Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Land management bureau grants 75 royalty rate cuts for oil and gas production in Utah

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 20, 2020


Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

More On That Billion-Dollar Solar Boondoggle In Vegas

By Jay Lehr, Climate Change Dispatch, May 14, 2020

Link to book: A Hitchhiker’s Journey Through Climate Change: All you need to know about climate change, but were afraid to learn and laugh at. Kindle Edition

By Terigi Ciccone and Jay Lehr, Amazon, 2020

On The New Gemini Solar Power Plant Near Las Vegas

By Arvid Pasto, Sparks, NV May 2020, WUWT, May 18, 2020

[SEPP Comment: According to other reports, the 38- megawatt battery has a capacity of 1400 MWh. What are they going to do at midnight, use pixie dust? See link immediately above.]

EU biodiversity plan ‘must not restrict wind’

WindEurope calls for protected area proposals to allow renewable developments

By Staff, RENews, May 20, 2020 [H/t GWPF]


The Looming Failure of Wind Energy

By Mike O’Ceirin, WUWT, May 22, 2020

Energy & Environmental Newsletter: May 18, 2020

By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, May 18, 2020

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

New Paper: Decarbonisation Plans Fail Engineering Reality Check

Press Release, GWPF, May 19, 2020

“Net Zero target is ‘madness’”

Link to paper: Electrifying the UK and the want of engineering (pdf)

By Michael Kelly, GWPF, May 2020


The £45 million battery installed by Elon Musk outside Adelaide, South Australia, can power that city for 30 minutes. It would power the emergency wards (20% of total demand) of Addenbrooke‘s Hospital in Cambridge for 24 hours on a single 80–20% discharge. Back-up is currently provided by two 1500- kVA diesel generators, which run for as long as fuel is available and cost £250,000. So if you wanted to be able to cover a 3 week’s power outage after a major storm, it would cost around 1300 times as much using batteries as it would with diesel generators. The idea is ludicrous, and it would be equally foolish to apply batteries anywhere else on this scale.

[SEPP Comment: According to Paul Homewood, there was a typo in the paper concerning Dinorwig, the biggest hydropower energy-storage plant in the UK. It has the capacity of nine gigawatt hours (GWh) of energy not nine gigawatts (9GW) of power.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Climate Activists Fear Post Covid-19 Commuters Will Avoid Public Transport

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 21, 2020

Transport for London reveal plans to transform central parts of London into ‘car free zones

By Staff, ITV, May 15, 2020


California Dreaming

California’s budget cuts include canceling billions in climate change spending

By Staff, AP, May 15, 2020 [H/t GWPF]

Health, Energy, and Climate

Heat now more lethal than cold for people with respiratory diseases in Spain

Women and older adults are the populations most vulnerable to high temperatures

News Release, Barcelona institute for Global Health, May 20, 2020


Link to paper: Reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality from respiratory diseases in Spain

By Hicham Achebak, et al. Nature Communications, May 20, 2020


Massachusetts – No Deaths Under The Age Of 20

By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 21, 2020


Environmental Industry

Greenpeace Climate Activists Take on Silicon Valley: Slam Big Oil Connections

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 21, 2020


Other Scientific News

Scientists discover oldest link between Native Americans, ancient Siberians

By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), May 20, 2020


Other News that May Be of Interest

New study estimates the odds of life and intelligence emerging beyond our planet

By Staff Writers, New York NY (SPX), May 19, 2020


An objective Bayesian analysis of life’s early start and our late arrival

By David Kipping, PNAS, May 18, 2020


[SEPP Comment: Objective Bayesian inference, or objective speculation?]

Michigan Dam Failures and Climate Change

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, May 22, 2020



3D breakthrough: Now anyone can print an interactive model of the brain

TECHNOLOGY A new method developed by researchers at the University of Copenhagen allows anyone to print interactive 3D objects. These might include models of the brain, to be used as educational tools.

News Release, University of Copenhagen, May 12, 2020


Five People Shot In Washington [state] – Die From COVID-19

By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 22, 2020


Pleistocene Bird Recovers From Extinction

By Dave Middleton, WUWT, May 20, 2020


Thank You, Trial Lawyers, For Protecting Us From The Scourge Of Baby Powder

Scientists say that talcum baby powder doesn’t cause cancer. Trial lawyers say it does. As usual, the lawyers win. Scientists, common sense, and Americans lose

By Alex Berezow, ACSH, May 20, 2020



1. Cut Through the Fog of Coronavirus War

The CDC needs to streamline and publish clinical data to help doctors on the front lines.

By Scott Gottlieb, WSJ, May 17, 2020


TWTW Summary: The resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration states:

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made its first definitive statement last week describing a rare but disturbing condition in children related to Covid-19. Doctors in the U.K. first reported in April a spike in previously healthy children presenting with features similar to another rare condition, Kawasaki disease, whose symptoms include rash and fever and, later in its progression, inflammation of blood vessels.

“This is a reminder of how much we don’t know about Covid-19. We’ve learned a lot over the past two months as Covid-19 became an epidemic, with 1.5 million Americans diagnosed and more than 90,000 dead. New insights have translated into improved care. This knowledge is saving lives and will be especially useful if infections flare up again.

“Yet such data on patients isn’t being streamlined and shared with the public quickly. There are shortcomings in our ability to access the electronic systems designed to help glean facts from clinical data. CDC hasn’t been filling its traditional role of promptly publishing medical findings that may help doctors care for patients. Instead, a lot of this information is being passed around social media, by email or even through word of mouth. It’s trial and error on a global scale.”

After giving specific examples of patients not receiving needed care, the doctor continues:

“These findings have come in the setting of an epidemic that has overwhelmed health-care systems. Doctors who usually conduct careful clinical research are battling to preserve lives while risking their own health. Much of the information has been passed along in short research notes, or even on Twitter. A little of it has flowed from the CDC. But to date there’s been no systematic reporting from CDC on collected clinical experience, even with hundreds of thousands of American patients hospitalized, tens of thousands of dead, and many more suffering.

“Some serious efforts are under way. The Food and Drug Administration is trying to use electronic health-reporting systems and real-world evidence to derive insights on experience with patients and how different drug interventions may be helping or hurting. FDA is using innovative methods to allow clinicians to analyze their own records and merge the results to try to answer questions about, say, the right moment to intubate a patient or give a drug.

“But CDC and its highly capable career experts must be elevated to play their role in reporting on these findings in real time, so medical practice can be quickly informed of the latest information about Covid patients. Whatever the reasons, CDC has spoken infrequently and with more reticence than is customary in public-health crises. Policy makers may worry that prescriptive guidance and descriptive clinical findings will fuel public fears or constrain a reopening.

“The opposite is true. The more information about how to reduce the risk of spread and the severity of sickness, the more lives that can be saved, and the more comfortable Americans will feel about starting to resume normal life.


2. It’s Deadly to Fear the Emergency Room

‘Shelter in place’ doesn’t apply if you’re having a heart attack.

By Yves Duroseau, WSJ, May 19, 2020


TWTW Summary: The Chairman of emergency medicine at Lenox Hill Hospital writes:

“When my hospital discharged its 1,000th Covid-19 patient, it was cause for celebration—a testament to the great work done by selfless health-care workers during this difficult time. Yet that same day, I walked around our emergency room and noticed that it had only about half the volume of patients we normally see on a Thursday. Where did all our patients go?

“It is a question shared by many emergency departments in New York City. At Lenox Hill we’ve seen the number of patients complaining of chest pain drop by nearly a quarter, as well as a 39% decrease in patients diagnosed with an acute stroke. Sadly this doesn’t mean New Yorkers are getting healthier. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that between March 11 and May 2, the city had 5,293 excess deaths not identified as confirmed or probably associated with Covid-19. Excess mortality means deaths beyond what would normally be expected for that period, based on historical data, suggesting that New Yorkers are dying at an alarming rate from diseases that don’t necessarily have much to do with the virus.

“You hardly have to be a doctor to come up with a hypothesis for why New Yorkers are choosing to stay out of emergency rooms. Patients are afraid that going to the ER will put them at a greater risk of contracting the coronavirus.

“The other day, for example, we were contacted by a man suffering from daylong, intense abdominal pain. After some effort, we finally convinced him to present to our ER, where we diagnosed and treated his early appendicitis. He went home the same day. Had he let anxiety get the better of him and stayed home, he likely would have suffered a much worse case of appendicitis—potentially fatal.

“Such cases unfold every day, and many don’t have a happy ending. Committed to sheltering in place, serious about social distancing, and fearful of contagion, too many people avoid seeking medical care. This is a public-health disaster, one we rarely discuss, even though it claims many lives, particularly of the elderly, immigrants, minorities and other vulnerable communities.

Recognizing that this crisis seriously, he concludes:

“Our emergency rooms are safe. Staying away when you need care is dangerous.”

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May 26, 2020 4:08 am

Lies, damned lies, and models.

May 26, 2020 5:44 am

I see the doomsters have managed to shut Michael Moore’s film down for the time being-
Wouldn’t it be ironic if some philanthropic Chinese sent him a better clip to replace the offending one?

May 26, 2020 6:01 am

This is fun. Chloroquine cures deadly SARS-like virus in 2003 TV episode; script written with help from CDC.

Reply to  icisil
May 26, 2020 12:28 pm

I don’t know, maybe not appropriate, but got to post it, for whatever reason!
Maybe, hopefully just for the fun of it, maybe, just maybe, or not;

Bad Wolves – Zombie (Official Video)


Kevin kilty
May 26, 2020 6:36 am

Nameplate rating without capacity factor is a meaningless measure, and so is annual average capacity factor. Even an average per month, while better than annual average, is not the pertinent measure. What matters is what is the probability that one will be without adequate electrical capacity for a critical length of time? Being without sufficient power for an aluminum mill for 1% of the time means 87 hours annually. Is this a tolerable risk? Are there enough dispatchable sources of power on the local grid to backfill, and who else is likely to bid for these limited resources? How much will one have to bid up the price of energy to make someone else suffer the brown/black out? So many questions. So little curiosity.

Reply to  Kevin kilty
May 26, 2020 7:59 am

How do you get through to these idiot true believers- https://anero.id/energy/wind-energy/2020/april
Run your cursor carefully along the bottom of the graph and you’ll see those dips get down to 1.9 and 1.2 percent of installed capacity. Not to worry it will all run on e-motion.

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