Chinese virus on the shelf

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

As a Sunday rest from the doom and gloom about the Chinese virus, here is an ingenious photographic composition from one of Britain’s leading artists.


“The English patient had caught it on the beach. I should have stayed at home she said. Now she was in quarantine in the dark house of splendid isolation. Still …

“… hope springs eternal. With a little bit of luck, common sense, and personal hygiene, the Corona book of horror stories must end soon. Always remember, clean hands save lives: and, when in doubt, don’t go out!”

Phil Shaw, the artist, was born and raised in Huddersfield, in God’s own county. He studied painting at Leeds Polytechnic and then printmaking at the Royal College of Art. In 2000 he was awarded a Doctorate in Printmaking from Middlesex University, where he has taught since 1980.

In 2004, one of his works was chosen as Print of the Year by the Royal Society of Painter-Printmakers. Shaw regularly exhibits at the Royal Academy. Works by him are in the UK Government Art Collection and the Vulcan Collection. David Cameron commissioned Shaw to create the thought-provoking print presented to world leaders at the G8 Summit in Northern Ireland in 2013. The original is in the National Art Collection.

Meanwhile, here are today’s daily charts. Since many countries have proven incapable of keeping a proper track of confirmed cases that have recovered, the Active-Cases chart is based on yesterday’s cumulative cases less cumulative cases for three weeks previously, on the assumption that people either die or recover 21 days after becoming confirmed cases.

On that assumption, several countries still show positive mean daily compound rates of growth in active cases, averaged over seven days. Among them are the United States, United Kingdom, France and the non-lockdown Sweden, whose active-case rate is now the highest among the countries we are following.


Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to April 25, 2020.


Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to April 25, 2020.

High resolution images here.

206 thoughts on “Chinese virus on the shelf

  1. I had no idea one could obtain a “Doctorate in Printmaking.” You learn something new every time you visit WattsUpWithThat. 🙂

  2. Everyone needs to watch this Youtube video (link below) and then call or email your Senator, your Congressperson, your Mayor and tell them to watch it and open the economy back up NOW.!!

    These two ER Docs say, “Follow the science. Follow the data. Not the models.” And when the data tells you the models are badly wrong, you follow the data. Applicable to Climate Scam and to the COVID-19 economuc shutdown.

      • Yeah, just like using the models to adjust the data, because “we know the data is wrong.”
        Where have we heard that before?

        Adjusting data to fit model that have a dozen unconstrained (assumed values) variables… that’s how charlatans run scams. Climate Scam most certainly included.

        At this point it is quite clear to those who are still able to employ rational, critical thought.
        What is happening now as this continues, it is about using Fear to control the masses.
        Where have we heard that before?

      • Data?
        I have been plotting these results.
        Interesting the drop off of COVID-19 positives as a proportion of those being tested for Flu like symptoms after the 23rd of March. Weather, Isolation, ?

        Covid-19 has remained at about %10 of those tested since the beginning of March.

        Corona barely rates in Washington State if you look at the Flu like disease report for Washington State.

        • Early testing was concentrated on those most likely to have the disease.
          As more tests have become available the standards for who got the tests have been gradually loosened.

        • Isn’t the most common cause of “Flu like symptoms” actually Influenza? Yet we don’t see any reported figures for Influenza infections or deaths. Isn’t that just a bit suspicious?

    • The ER doctors fail to acknowledge the lag in deaths relative to cases. Death numbers relate to cases from 2 to 3 weeks earlier.

      • When the economic shutdowns commenced in various countries in March, the phrase the pols used was, “Flatten the curve.” Everyone agreed (mostly) becasue we didn’t know. We now have data. Dta that shows the models, models that incorporated “social distancing”, and a badly wrong.

        The curve has been Flattened. So has every major national economy that has followed this path.
        To expect then that the virus needs to be stopped entirely is dangerously wishful thinking, but that is what the sheep are being told now. “Stay inside, we have to stop this virus!”

        What we now CLEARLY have is (1) fear-mongering, (2) moving the goal-posts from the original justification, and also unmasks that this is now become (3) controlling the People with using fear and calling it science from models.

        • I have been telling my friends and anyone I’ve met for weeks that the ones who are screaming the loudest about “STAY HOME, SAVE LIVES!” are the ones whose income is not threatened by any economic depression. Not by coincidence, these are the same people who told half-truths or outright lies about anything Donald Trump touts. I have always believed that a total lockdown was not necessary, but a lockdown of the vulnerable is. As this has gone on, I now believe that the economic pain and control over people is the plan. I have believed for a few weeks that this crisis was hyped in an attempt to prevent Trump touting his economy in the upcoming debates. What do those locking down the economy care? Their opulent lifestyle is not threatened.

          I am quite confident that Biden will hammer Trump on his handling of this crisis in his debates and commercials. The blind, card-carrying Democrat media already has.

          But through it all, what disgusts me the most is what the media is not telling people. They always, ALWAYS, leave off very important, provable, and easy to obtain facts that proves we do not need to panic and shut down everything. Facts such as the virus spreads by droplets and not by air, so if you do not talk, cough, or sneeze, it does not spread. Which means it mostly spreads in places where people talk frequently or loudly — at home or at big venues, not at restaurants and Wal-Mart. And facts like all other viruses, sunlight and warmth is bad for this virus and so there will be very little spread outside thus it is safe to leave open parks and beaches unrestricted.

          • +10 Not only do I agree, but I also think that screwing the working folks, especially the young ones who are trying to get established, to ‘protect the vulnerable’ is fundamentally wrong. I am retired, am secure financially, but all three of my kids are hit bad in the economics. I say let the old, including me, take their chances, do what isolating we think necessary, and get back to work. Its already looking like it will take several years for Canada to recover. Politicians are starting to sound self justifying to a degree that makes me suspect some of them at least are realising they have erred.

          • President Trump got bamboozled right from the start on all this…especially from China. But letting a very small handful of experts totally flatten the economy now can only mean the Left wants to crater the economy so hard, so as to be rid of Trump come election time. At the time, he was screwed if he did, and screwed if he didn’t. I bet the Dimwits will be blaming the economic destruction on Trump by Sept, just in time for the Nov election. And generally 1st term presidents don’t win reelection if the economy is dead. I think the last 2-3 weeks has been now about mainly sealing the deal on destroying the economy and by extension Trump, by deliberately ruining the economy so badly, that by November the economic carnage is still front and centre. The Whitehouse better wake up quick to what is going on, especially with spring in the air. Or Red China and the Socialist/Democrats win.

        • (1) fear-mongering, (2) moving the goal-posts from the original justification,

          Exactly, “flattening the curve” is simply a delaying tactic, the only reason for doing that is to prevent catastrophic failure of care in saturated hospitals. This certainly was happening in Italy and Spain, and it seems NYC.

          The initial panic reaction of shutting down entire countries can now be seen to be totally unnecessary and needs to be reversed ASAP.

          The vast majority of France, like much of USA has been only mildly affected to levels which do not even amount to bad flu year, yet the entire country is not in its 5th week of general confinement. This stupidity needs to end now.

          • Even in Italy, I doubt that the lockdown had any effect in “flattening the curve”.

            Indeed, the mean delay between infection and reporting death is 28 days (perhaps more in Italy with delayed reporting but not sure about that) :

            And the daily deaths peak in Italy occurred on Mars 27 :

            The lockdown started on Mars 8 so its effect should be noticeable on the daily deaths curve on about April 5, but the daily deaths trend started to decrease 9 days before (on Mars 27) :
            – the infection propagation was already decreasing during 9 days when the lockdown occurred. Thus, the daily deaths peak seems not to be related to the lockdown.

            But what did happend after the lockdown effect should have started ?
            Look at the trend of the Italian daily deaths curve from Mars 27 (the peak) to April 5 (the day from which the lockdown should start to be noticeable).
            Then look at the trend from April 5 to now.

            I noticed the same thing in all these countries so far, applying the 28 days mean delay between infection and death :
            – Italy, France (despite very poor data reporting with big spikes), Spain, Danemark, UK, Switzerland, Belgium, Germany and Netherland.

            As far as I can see, no evidence of any positive effect of a lockdown on the death toll :
            – the daily deaths peak seems not to be related to the lockdown,
            – the lockdown seems not to have any positive effect on the daily deaths even after its effect should be noticeable.

            Norway :
            The only country among those that applied a lockdown and that could have got it right is Norway, because they applied a lockdown on Mars 10, when the infection spread seems to have had its maximum.

            We will see if there is any significant difference with their neighbour Sweden. Until today, the difference in Total cases / 1M population is not significant. The death toll – actually worse for Sweden – is not relevant here since it depends mostly on the age distribution of the cases – mostly nursing homes in Sweden despite the strategy was to contain them, exactly as Norway but clearly, not with the same results) :


            Furthermore, as far as I know, until now the Swedish health care system did not get overhelmed :
            – as for now, this seems to show that they got it right by not applying a lockdown.

          • I noticed the same thing in all these countries so far, applying the 28 days mean delay between infection and death

            No idea from the graph you link, where it came from or on what it was based, so I give it no credence at all.

            I shared you skepticism of whether the data actually showed a difference, so did an analysis of the data. There was a clear change in direction in Italy ten days after restrictions came into force. That is consistent with mean incubation of 5d plus a few days before symptoms get bad enough for someone to risk going to a hospital.


            The “death toll” is a FAKE comparison since other countries pushed the problem into the future and we cannot count them yet. Apples to oranges.

            There is a clear difference in Sweden, compared to neighbouring countries, which is consistent with the choice they took to deal cases now instead of spreading the same cases out over months for no good reason and at enormous cost. They have never the less arrived at constant, manageable daily case loads. The made the right choice for their country.

          • “The initial panic reaction of shutting down entire countries can now be seen to be totally unnecessary”

            But it couldn’t be seen when the shutdown action was taken. And of course, we don’t really know how many people would die if we just allowed it to spread freely. President Trump still says from 1.6 to 2.2 million. Is he wrong?

        • Dta that shows the models, models that incorporated “social distancing”, and a badly wrong.

          If this is supposed to say that the models are wrong – then you’re wrong. The models have been pretty close to spot on. The Imperial model estimated the peak number of hospitalised Covid patients to within a hundred or so and got the date of peak right.

          • It’s wise to be sceptical of any report with the name “Imperial” in it, given their past record, agenda, and alumni, wouldn’t you say?

        • Dta that shows the models, models that incorporated “social distancing”, and a badly wrong.

          If this is supposed to say that the models are wrong – then you’re wrong. The Imperial model has been pretty close to spot on in the UK.

        • “When the economic shutdowns commenced in various countries in March, the phrase the pols used was, “Flatten the curve.” Everyone agreed (mostly) becasue we didn’t know.”

          There you go. Everyone agreed. So why complain about actions taken when “we didn’t know” just because we now have much more data on the Wuhan virus? Isn’t this apples and oranges? That was then, this is now.

          Trump is not promoting a lockdown as a means to exercise control over people, he’s trying to save lives. It is ridiculous to suggest Trump is doing this. I don’t know that is what you are doing. I suspect that comment is directed more at State politicians, but you leave the question open. So, are you aiming this at Trump?

      • JF,

        Do you acknowledge the lack of knowledge relative to cases? Death numbers relate ONLY to confirmed cases within a population where many asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic “cases” were never detected by testing, because those people did not seek out testing. So, death numbers are most likely being evaluated against a denominator of ACTUAL cases that is far too small.

      • I think their extrapolation of test to +ve ratio is very suspect. Most tests are done on hospital admissions or people presenting at A&E: hardly a representative sample which you can justify extrapolating to the entire population.

        Since that must be as obvious to them as it is to me, I don’t know why they keep presenting this as though is the obvious and logical thing to do.

        I agree about their general comparison to the influenza A and B and why the hell are shutting down the the country for this number of deaths.

        Once again a small group have been shouting exaggerated, alarmist numbers from ill-conditioned computer models have been able to force their very narrow perspective onto the decision makers and produce some very badly weighed cost – benefit choices on the rest of society.

        • “I think their extrapolation of test to +ve ratio is very suspect. Most tests are done on hospital admissions or people presenting at A&E: hardly a representative sample which you can justify extrapolating to the entire population.”

          ya think?

          • The issue is more that people wishing for a test are a group that might actually be at risk for some reason. The other light on this indicates a large number of non-symptomatic.
            Testing on the homeless community ( in this case I see no reason to question the authenticity) in one area indicated 36% had been infected.
            Most individuals had had no symptoms.

          • No Bruce the homeless “said they had no symptoms” there is a big difference which will likely be lost on you.

        • “Once again a small group have been shouting exaggerated, alarmist numbers from ill-conditioned computer models”

          Well, we need a properly conditioned model, don’t we. Know of one?

    • Over 750,000 people have lost their jobs in Australia in March alone due to the lockdown. Predictions of 50,000 to 150,000 deaths, so far only just over 80, and most of them were over 65 with comorbidity issues. The Aussie economy may never recover.

      • oh Ireckon the economy will do ok
        if we keep the experts out n let people get back into it
        all the crap about how many billions lost in 2 4 6 mth etc isnt helping
        what HAS been good is the reality check for those who havent ever had a very limited income(however brief this is) and the inability to just go do something that relies on others to supply it ie entertainment personal services etc
        hoping it make people appreciate the low paid workers more afterwards

    • Excellent video – thank you Joel.

      This Dr. Erickson is really well-educated, intelligent and well-informed… AND he agrees with me. 🙂

      AND I wrote my opinion ~5 weeks ago, based on limited data – but the story was there in the data (from the Diamond Princess, South Korea, and very low total mortality). Iceland data was examined later.

      I don’t like making wild claims and publicly being proved wrong, and I did take a chance here (as did our friend Willis) – but how did the “experts” get it so wrong, when the “amateurs” got it right.



      Let high-risk individuals – old folks like me –take extra precautions as we see fit. The rest of you slackers – get back to work! 🙂

      Regards, Allan

      [excerpt- posted 21Mar2020]

      This full-lockdown scenario is especially hurting service sector businesses and their minimum-wage employees – young people are telling me they are “financially under the bus”. The young are being destroyed to protect us over-65’s. A far better solution is to get them back to work and let us oldies keep our distance, and get “herd immunity” established ASAP – in months not years. Then we will all be safe again.

      • After more than 5 million views, the scoundrels at YouTube CENSORED the above video by California doctors Erickson and Massihi, which was previously located here: The screen now reads: “This video has been removed for violating YouTube’s Community Guidelines.”
        That is, the doctors were telling the truth – they were saying that Covid-19 was no more severe than other major seasonal flu’s and less severe than some. What’s up with that?

        This appears be the same banned Dr Erickson and Dr Massihi video, re-posted. Copy it while you have the chance, before it is censored again.

        The motives for YouTube to censor this excellent video are treasonous. How do we put the traitors at YouTube out of business?

    • Joel,
      Many thanks for the link. After watching the full presentation I can only say I have enormous respect for Dr. Erickson and his colleague.

      At the start of the lockdown in the UK I thought it was probably right. But I’ve been having increasing doubts as more evidence and data emerges.

      Two weeks ago the Daily Telegraph printed a report. It quoted Prof Dingwell, who sits on one of the government panels giving advice on the virus, and who has been a government advisor for 30 years. He strongly criticises the computer modelling, and makes it clear that there is essentially no outdoor transmission. He stated that the safe distance based on tests is actually one meter – it is increased to two meters for extra safety.

      Another senior scientist who advises the government – who did not wish to be named – also stated that there is virtually no possibility of outdoors infection: “We could find no positive evidence that this virus has even been transmitted outdoors (but abundant evidence of indoor transmission)….”
      If this is true – and I’m pretty sure it is – then forcing people to stay indoors, as in Spain, is futile and is almost guaranteed to cause more deaths in the long run. As Dr Erickson made clear, being outdoors is an important antidote to viral infections as it boosts immunity.
      In effect, some lockdowns are forcing people to stay indoors, which is precisely where virtually all infections occur. For people who live alone, like me, not a problem. But for family groups, being forced to stay together will likely actually increase infections in the early stages of the lockdown.

      Dr Erickson clearly stated that the virus is no more dangerous than ordinary flu. The data is pretty clear and I’m pretty sure he is right. But a good question was asked: if it’s no more dangerous than flu, how to explain some of the scenes in Italian hospitals? He answered that in fact similar situations have occurred in hospitals (possibly specifically in Italy, I’m not sure) during past severe flu seasons.

      I had wondered about the same question. I wonder if fear has a lot to do with it. Obviously, the media will always concentrate on the one hospital where things are going badly while ignoring dozens of other hospitals where things are under control. I also wonder if there could be a medical or moral equivalent of panic buying, where fear feeds on fear and causes people to do irrational things.
      Fear is a great motivator. It gets things done.

      Fortunately here in the UK we can go out for exercise and to get essential supplies. However, around a million people with severe health problems have been advised or ordered to stay indoors, so they can’t go out for exercise. This is probably wrong, as it does seem the probability of getting infected outdoors is essentially zero. The sad thing is that outdoor exercise is probably most beneficial for ill people.

      In general, being out and about is perfectly safe, provided you don’t congregate with other people outside your family group and you observe the two meter distance. And not just safe, but enormously beneficial, both physically and mentally. It also suggests wearing a face mask when outside is futile – all it probably does is reduce the supply available for health workers, who really do need protection.

      Finally, here’s a possible scenario. I’m not saying it’s definitely true – but it could be.

      1. The new corona virus emerged in the Wuhan wet market in November or even as early as October. In most cases it is little more dangerous than common flu viruses. It only appears dangerous because it is a new strain.

      2. The Chinese Communist Party suppressed information about the new strain for several months. They even threatened doctors who wanted to alert the world.

      3. Because of the secrecy, the new virus quickly spread around the world. It was spread primarily by physical contact e.g. kissing or shaking hands. It was probably well established globally by early January (one UK family reported they were all hit by flu around Christmas – only months later did they realise the symptoms were standard Covid-19 symptoms, persistent dry coughing and high temperature).

      4. A global panic quickly ensued. Even if the lockdowns were effective (they probably aren’t) most of them were futile because the infection was already wide-spread. Many studies show that the number of cases is much, much higher than the official figures based on limited testing.

      5. At the start the UK government pursued a policy of building up herd immunity, with some social distancing but no economy-destroying lockdown. But then a computer model came out, predicting 250,000 deaths in the UK if the policy continued. The government was panicked by this and quickly imposed a nearly complete lockdown. Fear stoked up by fantasy computer models – sound familiar?

      6. During May and June most lockdowns are slowly removed, but the damage to the world economy is massive. This alone may kill more people in the long term than the virus. Meanwhile, as better and larger scale testing continues, it becomes apparent that the number of infections was huge, many of which may have occurred even before the panic started. It also means that in fact the virus is no more deadly than the flu, which is precisely what Dr Erickson said. Indeed, many people who were infected don’t even get ill.

      7. During the next winter there is a second wave, as the weather in the northerm hemisphere gets colder and the new flu season starts. But it is much less severe, and most governments don’t panic for a second time. By that time it is becoming apparent that the global deaths during the Covid-19 crisis were little higher than normal. And something else works in our favour. As Dr Erickson mentioned, when viruses mutate they generally become less dangerous. That’s because, despite their bad reputation, viruses are actually quite friendly little chaps, though you might not want to invite them around for dinner. The last thing they want to do is kill you. They just want to make millions of copies of themselves, and that’s best done with a healthy host. In time Covid-19 will fade into the background just like flu and all the other viruses and bacteria that populate the world.

      As a US president once said: “You have nothing to fear but fear itself”.
      I think that perfectly sums it all up. And climate change alarmism as well.
      Stay safe.

      • You know, I was musing this afternoon and came up with exactly the same scenario! Just a thought experiment; I have no real facts to back my beliefs up.

        I think the deaths we have seen in the last six weeks or so were mostly as a result of the peak of the virus spread, back in early-mid March (pre-lockdowns). That was its apex. Deaths before the outbreak made the news were were occuring, but in low numbers, and weren’t identified as CoVid19 because no one was looking for it.

        I don’t think there will be further peaks, because almost everyone all over the world has been exposed to it now.

      • Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) is a well known military tactic, taught at West Point, Sandhurst, and military academies across the World. Those trained in its use, recognise the tactic when they see it, which is why so many politicians who are ex-military officers are the ones to question these current political agendas.

    • I watched that a couple days ago, I think they are making a mistake. They are extrapolating out test results from a fairly large sample size the population as a whole. The problem is the only people being tested are those showing symptoms. I don’t think this is valid.

    • Outstanding report. Common sense (which mostly is not as common as it should be) to the brim. “Why are healthy people being quarantined?” is one of they questions. Another essential point is the strictly scientific approach: these are the facts. Before we knew them, extreme measures were justified, but now is the time to realize that the protection that is offered, has adverse results. Which, moreover, get worse every day of delay. Exit now, please!

    • Joel,
      I watched the video yesterday and it was excellent.
      I just checked today and it has been removed by youtube – apparently it violates their principles or some such nonsense.
      Utterly sickening.

    • “This video has been removed for violating YouTube’s Community Guidelines.
      Learn more”
      So its on the money then …

    • In a similar vein; some of the world best musical compositions were written in cold countries. What else are you going to do in the depths of winter?

        • I’ve said before that we’ll need those ‘Nightingale’ emergency hospitals around about Christmas time! Still, the generation after will be able to blame everything on the WuFloomers…

          • At least there’s one good thing to come out of this, and that’s the Lefty Democrats and Labour Party, have stopped carping on about the number of hospitals being built by Republicans & Tories as being a fantasy ! Now at least the number has exceeded what was previously being claimed would be built in the time period?

        • The effects of cold weather on procreation are over stated.

          Indonesia, Brazil, India, the most popu;ous bits of China….all warmish

    • Certainly true in the case CofB.

      Yet another trivial ill-thought-out pseudo analysis from the Baron of banality.

      Because there are a few countries, notably UK and Holland, who are apparently incapable of keeping a log of cured cases, he decides to down grade his trivial one-size-fits-all method to the worst case of data availability. That’s simply lazy, since most countries do provide this data, he just can’t be bothered to source it.

      The 21day assumption is as arbitrary and non factual as any his other figures. A study in Italy found that of those who died of COVID in hospital, the average stay was FIVE days, not three weeks. In France the curve of daily fatalities lags about 14d behind the curve of daily new cases: suggesting a mean stay more like 2 weeks.

      If he looked at the death curve for Taiwan, he would see how messy this favoured 7d running mean is. I can tell without checking the numbers that what he has there is ONE daily data point which changed: a glitch. The crude running mean converts this into a week long increase which is one of the largest changes on the entire graph.

      I pointed out on the first day he published these spaghetti graphs that the running mean was a crappy filter, with a link to an article explaining why in depth, he is still using it. He spent time on several posts discussing a worrying increase in Ireland which was also a consequence of his crappy running means. Looking that the unfiltered data showed a one off jump where the data nearly quadrupled in just two days. It is clear this was not a medical reality but a change in recording which needed looking into.

      Since he did not even look at the daily data before putting it through his sausage machine he failed to notice this and thought it was real.

      I have rarely seen such a crock of badly done pseudo scientific , cargo cult science. Why WUWT continues to give him carte blanche to keep publishing this rubbish here is beyond me. It really brings down the credibility of the site.

        • I’ve just taken apart your latest home-spun Mannian mess , pointed out specific technical issues which you need to address and once again are totally unable to respond to with anything other silly comments.

          That you seem to think you have you produced a “metric” on which world leaders can base their policy is frankly hilarious.

          I’m whining , I trying to catch my breathe between bouts of laughter.

      • Yet another trivial ill-thought-out pseudo analysis from the Baron of banality.

        It really brings down the credibility of the site.

        Bring on the snark.

      • I may disagree with Mr. Monckton on this. But I still respect him. The only threat to the credibility of this site are people who try to shut down any debate they do not agree with.

        • Wade, I’m not trying to shut down any debate. a) because there is no debate and b) because I don’t have any say what gets published here.

          CofB has steadfastly refused to discuss or debate any of this from his very first post, where I clearly pointed out some criticisms of his analysis. ( The same hubris he exhibited when some of the career engineers on this site tried to explain why he was wrong about “bode plot” draft paper. )

          He started out presenting this plate of regurgitated spaghetti as proof that confinement was working and insisting that the govt. must keep confinement orders in place. That affects me and members of my family. If he thinks he can do that unopposed, he is wrong. If he thinks he present his lame, pseudo-analyses without entering into any discussion of technical issues and continue to claim any respect for either his ideas or his attitude he is wrong.

          If you think that deserves respect, that’s your judgement, Wade.

        • Indeed – LCMoB (what IS the forum protocol??) has made the best of a bad job and brings a cogently readable writing style.

          If it is a case of GIGO, that’s not necessarily his own fault.

          I welcome his contributions as it contradicts my own confirmation biases.

          It’s usually contributory to a debate to contradict in a polite, open-questioned manner; snarkiness gets close to ad-hominem as an ‘instant lose’ strategy and tends to close the debate prematurely.

          • I stared off with polite, criticism pointing out the short-comings and making several bullet point suggestions where he could improve his analysis.

            That did not even get the courtesy of a reply.

            “His Lordship” clearly considers himself above the serfs and lower classes hanging around here and is only here to inform of what we should to do. His responses never got further than “stop whine”, calling people “hysterical” and saying we need to remain in house arrest so “get over it”.

            He does NOT make the best of a bad job, he makes a bad job of a bad job and refuses to consider technical critique, no matter how it is presented. As I pointed out in detail above.

            His data processing is sloppy, lazy and trivial. His spaghetti graphs tell us nothing useful and he has not been able to explain what they show us.

            So as not to remain only critical , I spend the time to do a more in depth analysis.

      • Greg – what’s with the hostility? Lose it – all you are doing is dragging down this thread.

        We are all shadow-boxing with (mostly) poor data and doing our best to sort through it – that means, for the honest ones, analyzing the data and proposing a hypothesis, to be honestly critiqued by others.

        So you don’t agree with Lord M. What is YOUR hypo?

  3. On that assumption, several countries still show positive mean daily compound rates of growth in active cases, averaged over seven days. Among them are the United States, United Kingdom, France and the non-lockdown Sweden, whose active-case rate is now the highest among the countries we are following.

    The decline in Covid-19 hospitalised patients suggests the number of UK active cases is not growing. The number of new cases has been boosted by an increase in testing.

    • Nah there are thousands of sky diving accidents being called covid19 deaths, sky diving is the hot sport this year.

    • From those colors, it is impossible to distinguish Ireland from Sweden colors even on my 5K retina-display iMac.

        • CofB, I suggested over a week ago that you use a non lossy compression format like gif or png for the graphs, not fuzzy jpeg which fine for photos but causes ringing on block images like graphs. You refuse to take that advice and keep presenting lousy, illegible graphics and expect people to download separate file and open a power point viewer instead of just looking at what you post in the article.

          Apparently being sure you got it right is more important the learning something and getting it right, for you.

          I’m surprised you didn’t just tell him to stop whining.

          • If Mickey Mann was on here presenting similar garbage every day of the week, I’m sure everyone would be on his case. I don’t treat this any differently because I agree with CofB about Co2.

    • brian
      I’ve asked about Ireland before, and MoB did not respond. Similarly, why is Canada doing so badly with deaths?

      • In Alberta as of this morning the number of deaths is 0.0000165 or .001% of total population


        Ireland deaths jumped from 34 to 233 in one day ! Either someone just bombed a hospital or they’ve been messing around with their data again. About 2 weeks ago their case data went form 280 to nearly 1200 in two days. I doubt that was real either.

        CofB’s lazy sausage making means he just bangs everything with the same processing in Excel without even bothering the to inspect the raw data first to see if it looks credible. His graphs tell us nothing.

        Canada got off to a late start so numbers are still low but rising. It’s gone from 50 fatalities/d to 150 per day in the last two weeks.

        UK is chugging along at about 750 deaths/day but that is “better” on CofB’s graphs.

        • In Greece we had taken early measures and all our numbers are good with respect to most in the EU. Still, we have had two such jumps recently, due to infection detected in immigrant camps (distancing not held) and a Roma region (again distancing not held) . This is inevitable, and contact tracing goes on to isolate the problem. In other countries it is the old peoples homes that add to the problem. We recently had an addition from a private hospital for kidney patients, where again isolation and distancing were not kept meticulously.

          As with the readers here, there are people in Greece who think that early measures were enough, lockdowns unnecessary and destroy the economy. Probably the private clinic owners, doctors, had the same belief and have payed for it , with 4 extra patients with COVID and 80 of patients and personel (out of ~400) found positive with no symptoms, and the clinic put in to lockdown strictly for the remaining covid free kidney patients and personel

          In a row of nights we hear on the reports the numbers of infected falling to single digit numbers, and then suddenly, upsetting, rising to double digits 🙁 .

          Aside: I found out I cannot read the link for the graphs because I do not have ppx for power point. Trying do download the microsoft application, I get a “no internet” error, which is obviously wrong, as I am writing this.

          • It is ridiculous that you should have to download software just because CofB obstinately refuses to take the tips I gave him to produce legible graphs. Don’t worry, his graphs are no more informative when you can read them.

            Many countries have anomalies in their data which is why you need to inspect the data before putting it through a one-size-fits-all sausage maker.

            lockdowns unnecessary and destroy the economy.
            I though German banks and unofficial unregulated cartel of EU finance ministers had already taken care of destroying the Greek economy.

            Best wishes to the people of Greece.

          • GREG “I thought German banks and unofficial unregulated cartel of EU finance ministers had already taken care of destroying the Greek economy.”

            The happy go lucky greek politicians of the years since 1974 ( when we got rid of the colonels) had a large role in this, they acted as if money grew on trees, borrowing it to keep their electrorate happy.

            Fortunately last summer we got a technocratic government in, and Greece. on all economic indices had started a recovery. Then in February we got Turkey trying to invade through us Europe with immigrants , which again the technocrats managed to avoid, and then the corona hit us 🙁 .

  4. I don’t know that we will have the full picture regarding Sweden until the the post mortem is written in the coming years. It may be that they achieve a sufficient level of Herd Immunity that they are less hit next winter season in the NH when this may flare up again, like the Spanish Flu did in 1918/19. All my grand parents got the first milder version of the SF in late 1918 and then when it came back with a vengeance in 1919, they had immunity while other healthy young folk caught it and died relatively quickly. They were semi isolated in the wilds of the just then settled prairies and didn’t have contact with a lot of people although the majority of people seemed to have acquired it sooner or later over that two year period.

    Of course this isn’t the flu, and we don’t know the future, and whether this RNA virus has a half life that makes it extinct by next season is an unanswerable question at this point. I think the original SARS came back the following season, but fairly weakly and has seemed to have gone extinct now as far as far as we know. Of course, we don’t even know yet whether we will get immunity and/or for how long. I would just as soon prefer not to catch any version, anytime.

    • “It may be that they achieve a sufficient level of Herd Immunity that they are less hit next winter season in the NH when this may flare up again”

      1st, why are people expecting it to be seasonal when there is absolutely no data that points in this direction?

      2nd, with a CFR of 0.1% and 2194 deaths Sweden would have 2,194,000 people infected which is 21.7% of the population. Still nearly 50% to go for herd immunity. If CFR would be more like 1% or above like numbers from Taiwan, South Korea and Iceland suggests than only f***ing 2.2% or less of the whole population is infected.

      “I think the original SARS came back the following season,”

      It didn’t. It got extinct in the population through containment.

      • 1st…it’s a coronavirus…which do trend to be seasonal. It is well established that heat, humidity and UVC doesn’t encourage it to stick around for long in the warmer sunlight conditions of summer. This was just reinforced by the CDC et all at the WH press conference this last week. Tropical countries don’t be seeming to being hit as hard like New York for example, where in the tropical third world they even have higher population densities and fewer choices to social distance or isolate.

        2nd. We don’t really know how many are tested positive at this point in Sweden, and maybe never will know. But they will probably shed valuable data on this, either way. Maybe this SARS CoV-2 goes extinct by next season as well (this upcoming fall) but we won’t know until we know, which is why I said we will have to wait until the post mortem is written on all this in several years. Assuming post modern truth doesn’t get in the way which is something I really fear now.

        I did recall some original SARS cases happening the following season in the fall of 2003 to spring of 2004 but then SARS 1 was never that big to begin with. It was an epidemic, not a pandemic.

        Over 8,000 people from 29 different countries and territories were infected, and at least 774 died worldwide. The major part of the outbreak lasted about 8 months, since the World Health Organization declared SARS contained on 5 July 2003. However, several SARS cases were reported until May 2004.

        • 1st. MERS is also a corona virus. It is quite stable at hot temperatures and UV exposure and there is no seasonal component to it. Corona viruses are quite divers. Just that some are seasonal doesn’t mean all of them are. There might be still a seasonal influence of people’s behavior that has an influence on infection rates though.

          It is still to early to say anything about the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 in tropical regions as the virus arrived there later and which will definitively turn out to be difficult to interpret because of the low testing rate.

          2nd. the thought about considering herd immunity is just insane as long as nobody knows the rate of hospitalization, the real CFR and how fast the virus spreads. If you get one of those numbers wrong you can get in real bad trouble trying this. Last agreement of most virologist/epidemiologists is 0.5-1%. Prof. Woo-Joo Kim from South Korea estimates even 2-4%.

          The cases of SARS-1 in late 2003/early 2004 are considered to be outbreaks from research labs. Which might or might not tell you something about how contagious and probably deadly corona viruses are handled at Chinese labs.

      • “1st, why are people expecting it to be seasonal when there is absolutely no data that points in this direction?”

        Because the Wuhan virus is vulnerable to high heat, high humidity and sunlight, which are normal conditions for summetime, and people are outside a lot more during the warm months.

        The Wuhan virus is killed by 1.5 minutes of direct sunlight, according to a Trump Wuhan virus presentation the other day.

        • “Because the Wuhan virus is vulnerable to high heat, high humidity and sunlight, which are normal conditions for summetime, and people are outside a lot more during the warm months.

          The Wuhan virus is killed by 1.5 minutes of direct sunlight, according to a Trump Wuhan virus presentation the other day.”

          One has to wait and see. Specifically how much µW/cm2 was applied and how well this relates to real summer conditions.

          These publications are not in line with the claimed findings reported at the presentation.

    • You can only compare Sweden with other countries that have the same population demographics and life styles. Sweden does not have s#@t hole cities like NYC, Detroit, Philadelphia etc. Their lifestyle is not to be as mobile as the U.S.

    • With regards to seasonality, dark skinned people living far North and South are reportedly more prone to the virus than fair skinned people in terms of catching it and severity of symptoms. To me this suggests Vitamin D deficiency might be a factor. This would also explain seasonality. Far North and South in the depths of winter everyone struggles to make vitamin D from sunlight. Even gingers. It is difficult to get enough Vitamin D from food so if my musings are correct we should all be taking vitamin D3 supplements, especially in the winter. Testing vitamin C levels in the blood of incoming CCP virus patients should help establish if this is correct.

    • Let’s just assume the number of deaths declared as COVID-19 in New York City are correctly attributed.

      The number is 11,460 right now:

      Population of New York City is 8,400,000.

      It’s possible to project the number of infected people with assuming different CFRs.

      CFR 0.1% = 11,460,000
      CFR 0.2% = 5,730,000
      CFR 0.5% = 2,292,000
      CFR 1% = 1,146,000

      1,146,000 people infected would be 13,6% of the population.

      I’m just not sure that even 13,9% of already infected people are that much of good news.

  5. With so many coronavirus projections and graphs of cases and deaths online, why can one find no projection – using various search engines – of the collateral damage of a lockdown? Is is being hidden or has it not been done? Either answer should be deeply disturbing. Why would any good journalist avoid or be uninterested in the “unintended consequences” of a widespread economic shut down? Should any reader be aware of any study, please post links as I am sure I am not the only one interested.

      • To get to 5.2 Trillion US dollars you have to assign unrealistically high “$values” to # lives saved. Corona virus is taking the elderly and those with co-morbidities, that is many who are the least productive of a society. Influenza, especially the Spanish Flu of 1918, took the lives of many young soldiers and others still with 4 decades of lifetime productivity ahead of them. Completely different economics from a virus sweeping through a nursing home of a 100 residents and bringing about the swifter demise of half who were already frail. I’m not advocating that, or that is good. I’m just observing that nursing home tragedies with COVID-19 as fact as compared to the 1918 Spanish Flu.

        But economics is a soft science…. that is economics is not a science. It is merely opinions dressed up with many of the methods of science to look like a science. Sure it uses hard statistics. Sure it has its usefulness when economists don’t inject their politics. But inevitably opinions allow political desires to weigh in on economics.

        5.2 Trillion USD is obviously junk. Believe only because you want to believe it.

        • Joel,
          The value of a life is not calculated purely in terms of that person’s productivity. It includes
          everything else that makes life worth living, e.g. friendship, love, compassion not to mention
          the value of having grandparents around to talk to their grandchildren. Suggesting that the
          value of a life lies only in the amount of GDP added is a view rejected by most people in most countries.

          And the study does address the fact that the fatalities are mostly amoung the elderly. It
          calculates that even a reduced value of a human life of about $5.6 million would result in
          a net benefit due to lockdown.

          And if you object can you please state clearly what value you put on a human life?

          • You must be in a constant state of grieving over the countless daily deaths around the world due to all causes.

          • Izaak,
            YOU are the one who assigned and parroted a completely bogus dollar value of $5.2 Trillion to lives saved, not me.

          • Joel,
            The number of 5.2 trillion depends on a large number of factors and the authors
            do a good job as far as I can see on discussing the sensitivity of their figure on their
            underlying assumptions. What does seem relatively robust is the fact that that the
            number is positive, i.e. that there is a net benefit to society from the lockdown in the

            But to claim the number is “completely bogus” requires that you state your assumptions
            about the value you place on human life so we can all see how much you value the lives
            of the most elderly and vulnerable members of society compared to being allowed out
            to buy coffee in the morning.

          • Izaak
            Yes, some things are priceless. That is, no value can be assigned to them and arithmetic operations are meaningless. However, to avoid other losses of life, an economy has to be evaluated with units of monetary value. If you have an insurance policy, you can find the the values assigned by actuaries to a loss of limb or life. While losing a loved one cannot be compensated with money, it at least provides a starting point for comparing expenditures necessary to avoid additional losses of life. That is, cost and benefit analyses require numbers to work with.

        • “But economics is a soft science”

          Yes it is, and all this speculation about the effects of a lockdown are just that.

      • It has not been suggested that the lockdown will save any lives except the possibility of inadequate care due to possible hospital overload. Of course even in N.Y. the overflow hospitals maybe served a few hundred patients. Why do people continue to talk about saving lives by hiding in their houses.

        • I think most people who don’t understand the maths think that confinement makes the epidemic go away and “beats” the virus, ie it makes it peak early and go away.

          If they realised the best it could do was just lengthen the crisis, I don’t think they’d all be so compliant.

          • “If they realised the best it could do was just lengthen the crisis, I don’t think they’d all be so compliant.”

            The best it could do is find treatments and vaccines that are effective against the Wuhan virus. The lockdown gives us precious time to do these things.

  6. We still don’t know what we don’t know. #19 hysteria being driven by the media and politicians with an agenda mirrors the AGW scam. Trump’s unfiltered mouth has been proven right more times than not and claiming the press as “the enemy of the people” is being realized. Media control and bias has been going on since newspapers, radio, and television were invented but now it’s being blatantly misused to harm the people.

    • I agree with you, but the fact that the MSM can still easily manipulate public opinion reflects badly on all of us. How many times have they pulled the wool over our eyes?

      • “I agree with you, but the fact that the MSM can still easily manipulate public opinion reflects badly on all of us.”

        We’ll get a reality check about how influential the Leftwing Media really are with the November 3, 2020, presidential election.

        My guess is the Democrats will be swept out of office and Republicans will control all three branches. No doubt, that is wishful thinking on my part, but I think the numbers line up for that kind of outcome. Trump’s approval ratings are up, and the Leftwing News Media’s approval ratings are way down.

        We’ll know soon.

    • True, but not resolvable.
      We know co-morbidities from NYC. We know Wuhan deaths are differentially in the over 65 cohort, wich differentially has those co-morbidities.
      BUT, we do NOT know if those people might have lived a few more years but for CoViD-19. If they would have, your distinction without a difference is just wrong.

      • Lord Monckton mentioned that in UK people dying from COVID-19 with co-morbidities had an average life expectancy of 10 more years. That*s not really being on the brink of death.

      • Rud, people who die in traffic accidents who test positive for Covid-19 are being counted as Covid-19 deaths. We are overcounting Covid-19 deaths because there are financial rewards to the health care system (and political rewards to others).

        • That’s right, most countries are providing additional hospital funding for each patient diagnosed as “having tested positive with coronovirus” and no matter the species of coronovirus, because even the so called latest “2 Lines” 10 minute blood test doesn’t differentiate between antibodies produced for different varieties of coronovirus, and indeed antibodies themselves can be multi specific across the same genera. Most of the Worlds population North and South of the tropics will have a degree of immunity to all sorts of coronoviri, but not restricted to those latitudes alone though, with World travel being what it is, or rather was before draconian lock-downs.

      • Perhaps someone needs to look at deaths by all causes on a week by week basis across the last few years in data from several countries starting from the week numbers when the CCP virus first appeared in public. One should see a spike in each country’s data that didn’t occur in earlier years. Here I’m betting on this data being more difficult to fiddle. If I’m right data-fiddling related to CCP virus deaths should show up.
        Also, to be fair when medics are up to their ears in dying patients accurately recording data might be given a low priority and forced errors would be bound to occur.

    • Better to make decisions, intelligent or otherwise, based on “data like this” than the assumptions on which the original decisions were made.

      • Yes, Birx and Fauci have some ‘splaining to do–them running to Trump hysterically claiming 2.2 million deaths in the US is what closed the economy down!

        Considering their past associations and allegiances, I smell a political rat the size of a large donkey here!

        • “Yes, Birx and Fauci have some ‘splaining to do–them running to Trump hysterically claiming 2.2 million deaths in the US is what closed the economy down!”

          Trump is still quoting this 2.2 million figure, so I assume he thinks it is correct.

          Do you have any evidence to show that 1.6 to 2.2 million people would not have died in the U.S. if we had not had the population socially distance themselves from one another? Is there a model out there that predicted a much lower figure initially, before the characteristics of the Wuhan virus were known? If so, I would like to see it. As far as I know, all the initial computer models were predicting millions fo deaths if nothing was done to try to stop it.

          So if all the models are predicting millions of deaths, then what do you expect someone in President Trump’s position to do? He did the only thing he could do.

          This constant undermining of the policy does noone any good. It agitates people who are already agitated. If it were a valid argument, then it might be different, but it’s not a valid argument, it’s just whining and handwringing, and doesn’t change a thing.

          • We don’t need to compare one model to another, we need to compare the current model to reality. In a word, to Sweden. Lockdowns don’t have real world effects.

    • Especially if it turns out that the tests came back for a corona virus…perhaps from a common cold. I don’t know that I believe much anymore from anyone unless the source is bed rock solid and non partisan or commercial, such as from a Pharma Co. who sure wouldn’t want an off patent drug to supply any benefit.

      It has been reported that hospitals get paid more if Medicare patients are listed as having COVID-19 on their death certificate and get three times as much money if they need a ventilator. So they get a twofer, one for the death certificate listing COVID-19, and then the ventilator sometimes does major harm and most don’t survive a ventilator anyway and then they get 3x the profit. My BS meter is off the charts for New York. I hope I am wrong, but wouldn’t be surprised if this isn’t how things work.

    • “ll deaths WITH covid-19 are counted as deaths FROM covid-19.”

      This is the equivalent of arguing over how many Angels can dance on the head of a pin.

  7. (D) Gov. Inslee of Washington state is now threatening ‘violators’ of his stay-home and don’t-work diktats with fines, loss of licenses, and possible imprisonment. At the same time, Washington state is releasing felons, ostensibly to protect them from the Chinese virus, while threatening imprisonment for citizens that take a walk in a closed state park or on a closed county trail. It’s gone beyond reason and it clearly is not really about ‘protecting your health’ anymore….

    Since anything like work ist verboten, it’s ‘essential’ to go violate some more fascist diktats…..
    Remember: Jobs Are Essential! Paychecks Are Essential! Freedom Is Essential!

    • Makes sense. Free the prisoners who rape, murder, steal… and lock up those who need to make a contribution to society by working.

  8. If we look at the past, what have been the greatest mistakes. Or obvious mistakes.
    It seems the obvious one, was wanting to get cheap labor from a modern slave plantation.
    And imagining WHO couldn’t be bought.
    But one say this has cheaper lesson, than it could have been, though it could become even more expensive, time goes on.
    What is rather strange is the cheapest of crude oil. It seems if had known we get such cheap oil such savings would been more attractive than China cheap stuff. Considering how much Europeon taxes the crude oil product, they could tripled the tax and still get relatively inexpensive gasoline. Just think of all he government spending that would supported. But in terms of the chinese flu that had we were dealt, what were greatest mistakes. Or obvious mistakes.
    It seems if you don’t want old people dying, the failure to protect them, was most greatest and most obvious of the mistakes.
    The next region of mistakes, seems to related to “mass transportation”. And things like car transportation, were not a problem. Now with an airline, it seems one could have designed them to be less containers full of virus soup. It might be hard to do, but considering basic elements involved safely transporting billions people at sub-sonic speeds without many plane crashes, not hard in comparison to that basic challenge.
    And in terms all other mass transportation, it would not seem very hard to do.
    Rather than some crazy waste time and money trying to overhaul mass transportation, it seems it would be simply easier, to shut them all down whenever, a potential virus problem happens, but whenever one develops better mass transportation, the improved mass transportation, might not need to be shutdown.
    Rather than government focusing mass transportation machines, it could focus on making a simply machine that measures the amount viral load in whatever space they need to measure it. I don’t imagine they have such machines, but one might ask why agencies of public health, don’t. Or if have them, how good are these machines? Such as cheap, portable, and give all kinds of data.

    • We didn’t save a dime on all of that cheap crap made by slave labor in China did we?

      On the other hand, hundreds of millions of Chinese were lifted out of poverty and treated to a life without starvation. Investment bankers and international companies also benefited greatly.

      • –Scissor April 26, 2020 at 4:17 pm
        We didn’t save a dime on all of that cheap crap made by slave labor in China did we?–

        Well, China sort of like Japan providing cheaper and better cars {and other products}. Or China acted like competition and since stuff made in China acted as competition, consumers did save money.
        As for faults of Chinese leadership, power corrupts. And you blame them for following human
        nature. But you can blame political leadership in countries like US and Europe.
        Or that Trump doesn’t blame China, but rather blames US leadership, seems “mostly” correct.

        “On the other hand, hundreds of millions of Chinese were lifted out of poverty and treated to a life without starvation. Investment bankers and international companies also benefited greatly.”

        This is not just about trade with China. And in regards to “Investment bankers and international companies also benefited greatly.” could benefited as much doing business anywhere- there is nothing magical about China- such as could have been as much with African countries or
        within US. Oh, there was one magical ingredient and that was China did have access to a lot Coal and willingness to burn endless amounts of it, and provide lots of electrical power. And US coal companies were being ruined in US, and set up shop in China was a lot more profitable than US.
        And as result, China got the best coal power plant in the world- super energy efficient.
        So US they couldn’t built coal powerplants, but in China they built endless amounts them in very short time period.
        So despite Chinese coal costing 2 to 3 times the price of US coal, the time it takes to built a coal powerplant in China, because they want electrical power so they get out poverty, allowed electrical power to cheaper as compared to US.
        Or magic of getting any country of poverty as long been known to be to install electrical power plants, and if government actually wants it, that solves the main problem.

        So there was no problem with helping China get all the electrical power they could need, and with the power one can power industry, but problem US government making it less profitable to operate in US and handing out money to operate in China- that’s just stupid. But stupid is what governments do best.

    • Oh, I feel it is appropriate to mention, because of the author of this article, that the Infection Percentage of the United Kingdom is the same as the European Union – 0.23%.

      • Here’s my own assessment based on today’s numbers:

        Reported Deaths/1M pop:

        US: 167
        EU: 220
        UK: 305
        Sweden: 217
        Norway: 37
        Finland: 34

        Population Density (~people/km2):

        US: 35
        EU: 105
        UK: 279
        Sweden: 22
        Norway: 17
        Finland: 16


        • The population is in clusters. You can’t really relate the total population to the total area of a country. High rise, suburban and rural situations have different densities.

          • True – all countries have varying population densities within. However, lower average densities should equate with greater average human distancing and the mortality data seems consistent with that (imo). Sweden is a bit of an outlier likely due to their C-19 social distancing policies.

          • Not only is the population in clusters, the deaths tend to favor clusters as well – places highly populated with the sick/elderly (ie elder care homes). Basically, the number of deaths from this for US elder care facilities is greater than for the entirety of the non-elder care facility US deaths. That’s not to minimize the deaths of the non-elderly population (every death is a tragic loss to their loved ones), but rather to put it into perspective.

          • John Endicott,

            “Not only is the population in clusters, the deaths tend to favor clusters as well”

            Yes – case in point is NY with 40% of total US deaths while only accounting for 1.5% of the US land area. An exasperating factor is the ~3000 nightly transatlantic flights that continued until mid March – many out of NY & NJ.
            W/o NY, US C-19 data would be much different.

      • The table you link to is all wrong , three countries Iceland , Lichtenstein and Schweitzerland and are not and have never been members of Trollheim. Two member countries Bulgaria and Croatia not in the list and population column also probably old and outdated . Current total population count for the EU is approx. 445 million in the 27 member countries left after UK exit. Not the ~ 430 million as in the Total EU item for the Population columns. Correct, update your data and then come back. (N.B. i do not think it will change anything in a big way , but nevertheless it should be done before speaking out. )

        • Wow. Thanks Bjorn,

          I’m surprised nobody else pointed it out. I collected the list of countries in the Schengen area from the EU website. I guess I didn’t read it very closely, I wasn’t expecting two lists. I’ve already been tracking Bulgaria and Croatia too, so I’ll just slip them in and remove Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland. No problem.

          I collected the populations from Google searches. I’m rounding them off anyway. I noticed Google doesn’t always return the most recent population estimate. It’s a lot of manual labor and some of the counties aren’t 2020 estimates.

          I’ll start changing it right away, but you’re right – it doesn’t change the overall picture very much very much.

    • According to informal surveys, somewhere around 40-50% think they had it, many going back to December, November and even October. Of course this is non-sense but that’s the way it is.

    • Non-Lockdown Sweden is performing better than the EU average of total cases as a percentage of the population – 0.18% vs 0.23%

      Total cases is meaningless. It is a function of the number of tests performed. I think they are not going well in terms of fatality, but I also think that this will drop more quickly for them, so overall totals may the the same.

      Has anybody else noticed how few people in the world supposedly have this virus?

      Stats seem to show that only the Northern hemisphere is badly affected. The southern hemisphere and the tropics seem to be getting off lightly. I don’t know if that’s a coincidence. If not, then the weather is probably a major factor.

      Fatalities per million population

      • “Stats seem to show that only the Northern hemisphere is badly affected.”
        That may change as SH flu season begins – we’ll see.

      • Zig Zap mused;

        “… weather is probably a major factor.”

        I read a suggestion a few weeks ago that the virus rapidly dies in temps about 24deg C. If your current daily temperature is regularly in that region then the logical assumption is that the virus is going to struggle to survive and that transmission rates are likely to be lower.

        Factor this in together with the Southern hemisphere coming out of summer AND with countries like Australia being far closer to the equator then Europe and most of the US and there is also the logical assumption that there is more sunlight and associated UV light to go around.

        Continuing this train of through it may actually be that for countries like Australia enforced home isolation is actually the worse thing the government can do and the better course of action would have been compulsory outdoor daytime activities for all and sundry.

        This is Your Government. You WILL play SPORT!

      • I’ve commented on this earlier on. Because skin tone (dark or light) shows up in the data far North or South I think it’s worth looking at low vitamin D levels in the blood to see if it’s a risk factor.

      • The CFR is a function of the Categorization of Deaths and Closed Cases. Notice Germany. The criteria for categorizing deaths and closing cases in Germany seems to be “different”, and as a consequence, they have a relatively low CFR.

    • A picture is worth a thousand words:
      Check the country by country weekly registration of death in every european country. Note where Sweden is placed.
      For economic impact of lock down check the Tom-Tom congestion comparison charts for the last week for Stockholm and any other european city.
      Congestion has been a very reliable metric for economic activity in China and elsewhere.
      Presented without comment.

      • Sweden is currently somewhere in the middle of those euromomo excess deaths plots, similar to locked down Wales and Scotland.

        Tomtom says 1% less than average traffic in Stockholm just now, 12 traffic jams of total length 5.5km. Which suggests, reasonably busy, same as the impression that the Stockholm webcams give.

    • The table linked to in your comment is incorrect ,three of the countries listed there Switzerland and Iceland are not and have never been members of the EU, and now that UK has left that Trollheim, it’s membership list only has 27 not 28 countries.
      see here:

      The two missing countries in the list when the three non members are removed are Bulgaria and Croatia
      and when the population columnm adjusted by add the roughly number of the roughly 11 million people living today in them and then subtracting the number of the almost 9 million people listed in the thre non members the Total EU population column shows 433 million insted of the 430.9 your liinked table shows, but summing the population numbers in the table i linked to the sum comes out as ~ 445.2 million, so the table you are using compute probably last years new, and should not be combined with todays corona case count as a basis for any conclusions unless updated first.

  9. “Always remember, clean hands save lives: and, when in doubt, don’t go out!”

    what unmitigated drivel …

    clean hands don’t save lives … anyone ignorant enough to spout that really shouldn’t be allowed out of the house or posting here on WUWT …

    you can infect anyone BUT YOURSELF with your hands …

  10. “The English patient had caught it on the beach. I should have stayed at home she said. ”

    England must have really nice weather this time of year for all those jamb-packed sunbathers!

    • Hard to picture an ocean setting as being a place where one would pick up the virus. Ocean air always efly so invigorating and cleansing.

  11. “Always remember, clean hands save lives: and, when in doubt, don’t go out!”

    you can’t infect anyone but yourself with your hands …

    this sort of ignorant drivel should never have been posted on WUWT …

    • You should also wear clean underwear before you go out in case you get into an accident and have to go to the hospital.

      • I generally don’t sneeze into my hand just prior to shaking hands with anybody. It’s so unsanitary

        • Unlike our local bakery server girl, who I gave a bollocking to for coughing into her hand then picking up the unwrapped bread she we trying to sell me. She had a red nose and streaming cold at the time !! ( Before covid )

          Or the local greengrocer who licks his finger to open the plastic bag for EVERY customer’s produce. Even after covid !!

          Sadly these things need to be said.

  12. Any theories about the cause of the 6 to 8 day modulation on the death rate seen in many countries on the Worldometer site. Some countries show a similar modulation on the new case rate.

    • It could be something as banal as people not wanting to miss their favourite tv show. 6-8 days is about a week. Over a million people have downloaded the app from the Australian government that tracks their movements. I’ve given up on trying to understand humanity and what motivates them to do stupid things.

    • I was plotting data daily, and noticed that the data would change for a few days. People here on WUWT have noted that on weekends data is slow to arrive. Maybe a weekend data reporting issue that never gets resolved?

    • Most of the “modulation” is due to reduced recording on weekends than catch up on Monday. Easter catch up was Tuesday or Wednesday.

      A definite exception is Sweden. It has a cyclic peak each week on Thursday or Friday in reported cases and there is a slight upward trend through April. My speculation is that the increase in infection occurs on the weekends in bars and restaurants and it shows up in hospitals 12 days later; a week plus 5 days.

      Sweden is doing badly; heading toward a death rate of 1000deaths/M of population. The worst in EU currently is Belgium with 612deaths/M of population but they are past the peak infection rate. Sweden is still a month away from its peak unless they embrace a more severe lockdown.

      • You are biasing your interpretation with your expectations of what Sweden “should” be doing.

        Sweden have more cases ( and thus more deaths ) now because they chose to deal with it now instead of ruining the life blood of their economy for no more gain than delaying the same case load.
        This does not mean they are “doing badly”. That is your erroneous interpretation in comparing the incomparable. The other countries will have cases going on for many months, those are as yet uncounted.

        Belgium with 612deaths/M of population but they are past the peak infection rate. Sweden is still a month away from its peak unless they embrace a more severe lockdown.

        No, Sweden peaked about 14d ago. There is no reason they should “embrace” your preconceptions, which you may need to review in the face of evidence.

        • Sweden’s highest number in daily new cases:

          April 24th, 817

          Sweden’s highest number in reported daily deaths:

          April 21st, 185

          I don’t think “Sweden peaked about 14d ago” is backed up by the data available.

        • Greg, I think there is a real case that it is catch 22 for the economy, whether to let the fast spreading virus romp and incapacitate the economy anyway due to lack of hospital facilities to keep the workforce going. I wonder what the numbers were for the economy in Lombardy just before the panicky lock down? Was it working or in a recession anyway?

          Do not forget that companies are run by over 60 year olds , would they run if in a company 20% of seniors died ( because no hospitals or doctors or oxygen) ?

          I do not know, but that is the reason lock down was imposed after the runaway effect in UK France and Spain. Decision makers got scared that it was catch 22 for the economy.

          Sweden has peculiarities, we in Greece also have peculiarities and good weather, maybe it would not have been necessary to go to lockdown but to follow the swedes, because now the worry is how to get herd immunity by slowly relaxing the lockdown. Summer may help, as the southern hemisphere shows? I do not know.

  13. Plotting the latest data from European Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The long and the short of it, it pays to be in the southern hemisphere or somewhere warm, and, if you have to be in Europe, it pays to be in Eastern Europe. The differences are quite striking, and not easily dismissed as reporting issues, IMO.

    • yes and winner in Europe is Slovakia with 3 deaths per million, for simple reason, earliest general usage of face masks. 7 days after first case most of people were wearing face masks. Other than that standard good job with testing, social distancing.
      Yesterday 6 new cases, today just 2 new cases (from 4800 and 3100 tested)

  14. Crikey, still banging on about a model that has absolutely no relationship to reality…now, where have I come across other models that do this too…

  15. I can’t see US staying inside the 60K number predicted they will pass that mid week on current data.

  16. Just from general observations around here, traffic, construction sites, neighborhood activities, hardware, home improvement, gas stations, convenience and grocery stores, etc. the social distancing, stay-at-home, masks was a clown show. Many restaurants and other stores adapted with take out, online, curb service. Schools, sit down restaurants, gyms took it hard, but for a great many, a few adjustments and life goes on.

    Covid-19 did what any disease does to a herd that is too crowded and/or too sick. the Grim Reaper and Mother Nature come in, kicks ass, culls the weak and stragglers, moves on and flames out.

    This colossal economic cluster **** was created by the lying, fact free, panic inducing, hysterical fear mongering fake news MSM out to hang this around Trump’s neck. They should be picking up that trillion dollar tab.

  17. So it is 4 PM EST and I just got back from Englewood Beach on the central west coast of Florida. The beach was open, so was the parking lot but it was full. Across the street was a restaurant/bar that was open for take out only. We went there and the lower bar was doing the take out in a legal way, all servings were not open, the customer had to open them. There is a large patio with seating and that is where all us take out customers were hanging out. It is a beautiful day, clear blue skies, low 80F temps and a brisk wind coming off the Gulf of Mexico. Those enjoying their take out beverages were doing the right things, no more than 4 at a table, keeping the 6 foot distance between tables and other seating areas. What better place to be to be healthy….outside in the sun with a clean, fresh wind blowing. Then some cry baby fool called the Sheriff’s office and they arrived to shut down the seating. All responsible adults, voluntarily doing the correct things but we were not allowed to continue. No blame on the officers, they were doing their jobs enforcing the policies that they had to. This is madness and it must stop.

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