ChiCom-19
Why do I call all things coronavirus, ChiCom-19?
- Because it is a destructive weapon that came from Communist China. This doesn’t mean it was an engineered bio-weapon or that it was intentionally used to attack almost every nation on Earth.
- It was made nearly twenty times more deadly and destructive by Red Chinese deceit, and that deceit was abetted and parroted by the United Nations (WHO).
- Communism is not a race… Don’t even go there. Nationalist China’s warnings were ignored by the WHO.
COVID-19 has claimed at least 42,000 lives worldwide. A University of Southampton study estimates 95 percent of infections would have been avoided if China had acted just three weeks earlier — instead of silencing those who sought to save lives.
NY Post April 1, 2020
Beijing silenced Wuhan laboratories which had realized in December that the coronavirus was related to the deadly SARS virus from 2002-2003, and continued to claim that coronavirus could not be transmitted from human-to-human for weeks after evidence of that fact emerged.
The WHO parroted Beijing’s line on January 14, tweeting that there was “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus.” The WHO also defended China’s multiple drastic alterations to its coronavirus case count, and has not criticized Beijing for refusing to count asymptomatic cases until April 1. Multiple reports have detailed how China backed Tedros’s bid for WHO director general in 2017, after he had worked closely with Beijing as Ethiopia’s health minister.
National Review April 9, 2020
The only thing the WHO is good for is…
And now the rest of the story (H/T Paul Harvey)
Guest “END THE FRACKING HOSTAGE CRISIS NOW!” by David Middleton
NEWS 17 APRIL 2020
UPDATE 19 APRIL 2020
Antibody tests suggest that coronavirus infections vastly exceed official counts
Study estimates a more than 50-fold increase in coronavirus infections compared to official cases, but experts have raised concerns about the reliability of antibody kits.Widespread antibody testing in a Californian county has revealed a much higher prevalence of coronavirus infection than official figures suggested. The findings also indicate that the virus is less deadly than current estimates of global case and death counts suggest.
[…]
How deadly is SARS-CoV-2?
Sero-surveys can also provide a better estimate of how deadly a virus is, using a measure known as the infection fatality rate (IFR) — the proportion of all infections, not just those confirmed through clinical testing, that result in death.
[…]
The Santa Clara team estimated an IFR for the county of 0.1–0.2%, which would equate to about 100 deaths in 48,000-82,000 infections.
[…]
Fatality rate estimates have been revised down over time as more people have been tested and researchers have gained more insight into less-severe cases, as happened with swine flu in 2009, says Eran Bendavid, a population-health researcher at Stanford University who led the Santa Clara study.
[…]
Nature
The case fatality rate for influenza pandemics is about 0.1-0.2%. Yes, the Nature article babbles a lot about “experts” raising “concerns about the reliability of antibody kits”… “Experts” always raise concerns about anything that dilutes the power of their “expertise.”
In the meantime hostage crisis protests are spreading across America…
US governors feel heat to reopen from protesters, president
By PAUL WEBER and FRANK JORDANS
yesterdayAUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Stores in Texas can soon begin selling merchandise with curbside service, and hospitals can resume nonessential surgeries. In Florida, people are returning to a few beaches and parks. And protesters are clamoring for more.
Governors eager to rescue their economies and feeling heat from President Donald Trump are moving to ease restrictions meant to control the spread of the coronavirus, even as new hot spots emerge and experts warn that moving too fast could prove disastrous.
Adding to the pressure are protests against stay-at-home orders organized by small-government groups and Trump supporters. They staged demonstrations Saturday in several cities after the president urged them to “liberate” three states led by Democratic governors.
[…]
AP
The Fire Marshal Gumps of America might want to read up on Thomas Jefferson, author of the Declaration of Independence and our third president…
And what country can preserve it’s liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is it’s natural manure.
Thomas Jefferson, letter to William Stephens Smith, 1787
Day twenty- or thirty-something of America held hostage by ChiCom-19
The local Dallas County numbers continue to be underwhelming. As of noon Saturday:
| 4/19/2020 | |||
| Dallas County | CHICOM-19 | ||
| Population | Cases | Deaths | |
| 2,637,772 | 2,324 | 60 | 2.6% |
| % of population with | 0.09% | 0.00% | |
| % with, rounded | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| % without | 99.91% | 100.0% | |
| % without, rounded | 99.9% | 100% | |
| Menodoza Line (.200) | 3/12/2035 | 0.200 |
And much to the chagrin of Dallas County Commissar Fire Marshal Gump, the Great State of Texas will lead the nation in ending the ChiCom-19 hostage crisis:
CORONAVIRUS
‘Step by step, we will open’: Texas becomes first state to announce dates easing COVID-19 restrictions amid novel coronavirus pandemicFriday, April 17, 2020
AUSTIN, Texas — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued three executive orders Friday that outline how to reopen the state amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
The announcement from the governor has been long awaited, with Abbott adding that the state and its decisions must be guided by data and doctors.
He started Friday’s briefing with hope, noting that, “We are now beginning to see glimmers that the worst of COVID-19 may soon be behind us,” and that Texas has the second-most recoveries of all the states.
[…]
ABC News 7
Fire Marhal Gump, anything to add?
Dallas County Reports Deadliest Week Yet in Fight Against COVID-19
The new cases bring the county’s total 2,324 cases and 60 deaths
By Claire Cardona and Allie Spillyards • Published April 18, 2020Dallas County on Saturday reported five additional deaths and 134 more positive cases of the new coronavirus.
“Today’s five deaths bring our weekly fatalities to 33, which is the deadliest week so far and 55% of all COVID19 deaths in Dallas County,” county Judge Clay Jenkins said in a written statement. “Today’s number of new cases is the most we have ever reported.”
The five additional deaths include a Grand Prairie man in his 80s, a University Park woman in her 90s and three residents of long-term care facilities — two men and a woman, all in their 70s.
[…]
NBC5DFW
Hey Gump! The people who died last week got into the “checkout line” over two weeks ago!
Hey Gump! Read your own county’s fracking reports!
Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 134 additional positive cases of COVID-19 today, bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 2,324. Five additional deaths are being reported, including:
*A man in his 80’s who was a resident of the City of Grand Prairie and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
*A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of the City of Universal Park and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
*A man in his 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
*A man in his 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas and has been hospitalized in an area hospital.
*A woman in her 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas and had been critically ill in an area hospital.Dallas County HHS
Of cases requiring hospitalization, most have been either over 60 years of age or have had at least one known high-risk chronic health condition. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Most (69%) deaths have been male. Twenty deaths have been associated with long-term care facilities.
Every death is tragic… But killing everybody through economic strangulation is really FRACKING stupid!
Just to close out on a lighter note… Red China’s best bud sees this as an opportunity to “fundamentally change the science relating to global warming”… Because ChiCom-19. Be sure to follow the facial expressions of the CNN buffoons…
Watching Biden is like watching Weekend at Bernie’s, except it’s as if there’s a random word generator implanted in his brain whatever is between his ears.
Only it isn’t called ChiCom-19, and absolute mortality in the Netherlands (that is real counted corpses in morgues) is currently displaying a hockey stick: the average death count in The Netherlands over the last five years was 3000 per week, we are currently at 5000 absolute deaths per week, the previous flu epidemic peaked at 4000.
So I don’t know where Nature got there numbers from, not from the Netherlands.
Their numbers…
Spread in NYC
mass transit connection
http://web.mit.edu/jeffrey/harris/HarrisJE_WP2_COVID19_NYC_13-Apr-2020.pdf
Spread is irrelevant. ICU visits and deaths are all that matter. NYC are a bunch of liars about their death numbers. But you’re probably OK with that because you countenance the climate liars too.
Steven,
Thank you for the paper reference. It was a pleasant surprise in terms of its quality, even though its conclusions come as no surprise.
London, it seems, has made similar mistakes to New York, particularly in cutting services rather than increasing them to reduce traveller density per journey. From headline numbers, deaths of frontline TFL workers (who run the bus and underground services in London) seem to be running at over 3 times the London average.
Not sure how this fits into your timeline and I think they’ve published a paper/assessment of their research but haven’t looked yet. Some of the comments seem interesting having just glanced at the first few.
Cambridge researcher points out what analysts got wrong about COVID-19
https://youtu.be/fB8M37gx5xM
Let’s go back and revisit how we got here to these State imposed Lock-downs, and that they are now going past mid-April into maybe now to the end of May or longer.
The original justification everyone in the political class used (both R’s and D’s) was we had to “Flatten the curve.”
The curve being the acute respiratory distress case presentation rate to hospital ICU’s that could so overwhelm our hospitals across the nation. In such a high peaked curve scenario, huge numbers of patients in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) would force the US hospitals into an Northern Italy situation, a situation where patients were being triaged (divided into those who could be helped and those who couldn’t) and then many dying in hallways awaiting ICU intubation and a ventilator and other life-support … that never came.
Note: In “flatten the Curve”, no one ever suggested the virus would eliminated from cirulation. Only the peak presentation RATE would be decreased to manageable levels. No one suggested the Area Under the Curve (AUC) would be less in flattened scenario as eventually EVERYONE is going to get inoculated by the SARS-CoV-2 virus regardless, the question is when… all at once (or nearly so) or spread out over months to a year. (By inoculation I mean either community infected OR vaccinated by an effective vaccine). But the AUC itself was never going to change, that is everyone was going to get infected, it was just a matter of “when.”
We have flattened the curve. The Original goal is now attained, by either luck or quarantine. It doesn’t matter. Cases (both infections and fatalities) are now falling. Yes they may surge back up, but the orgianl goal has been met.
Time to open back up.
It is the idiots (and Trump haters) who want to now move the Goal Posts to claim this is about stopping a resurgence or circulation of virus entirely.. that will be impossible unless (1) we want to stay in Depression-style Economic lock-down till 2021 and/or when an effective vaccine arrives for the masses.
At this point it is about allowing a growing and steady herd immunity to develop over months to a a year, because no mass-produced vaccine will be ready for at least 18 months.
This Lockdown situation is very much like the Climate Scam perpetrated by the Left. The climate scam is promoted by only discussing the negatives (costs of climate change on society and ecosystems), and they steadfastly ignore the costs of fossil fuel elimination and the benefits they provide.
From a medical perspective, the Hippocrates imprimatur is “First Do No Harm.”
At this point, based on the economic harm then the continuance of the Lockdowns is doing more harm than good to both our society overall ( harm: suicides, poverty, stress, broken families) and its long-term health and wealth to afford a better future.
Joel,
Thank you for your clear analysis of the problem. I tried to lay this out in a slightly different form in a recent post, but I always appreciate your thoughts on serious matters.
the only Levin video found with the full show (almost). first time I’ve come across that problem. also, ads included in some spots. finally, intro to Dr. John Ioannidis around 22m40s, listing all his credentials, seems to be missing.
first half is with True Health Initiative’s Dr. David Katz.
Youtube: 48:40 – 19 Apr: Life Liberty & Levin [LIVE STREAM] 4/19/20
about 22m40s to the end: Dr. John Ioannidis, Stanford University
Dave,
I’ve enjoyed every one of your many posts. Hope you keep it up. But this time you left out the subtitle, one of my favorite parts.
My suggestion: ‘Guest reality-check by David Middleton.’
I’m saving that subtitle for this…
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
No, COVID-19 fatality rate is NOT similar to influenza (excepting the spanish flu):
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3567093
That paper is based on real data (=fatalities), not models.
That is interesting. Because if you take the excess mortality and attributed it with different percentages to COVID-19 and calculate from that different CFR rates and the corresponding infection rate you can come up with a best case scenario based on 100% people already infected.
From the article:
“At the aggregate level, we report an increase going from 1,635 deaths in March 2019 to 7,680 deaths in March 2020, equivalent approximately to a 400% increase in the average municipality mortality rate compared to 2019 or previous years. Of these 6,045 excess deaths, only 2,948 deaths have been officially attributed to COVID-19, implying that COVID-19 related fatalities account approximately only for half of the observed excess deaths.”
So let’s take the data from table 1, panel A:
8,880 COVID-19 deaths
4,925 total deaths March 2019
23,130 total deaths March 2020
18,205 excess mortality
198,300 population
only 49% of the excess mortality are therefore attributed to SARS-CoV-2. But in numbers it’s still 9,325 MORE of deaths not attributed to SARS-CoV-2 than last year meaning an 1.89-fold increase. Without the COVID-19 cases. These included it’s a 3.7-fold increase.
If we assume an infection rate of 100%(!) and 8880 deaths the CFR would be 0.45% with only roughly half of the excess mortality attributed to SARS-CoV-2.
0.23% CFR if only 25% of the excess mortality would be due to SARS-CoV-2.
For a CFR of 0.1% only 10.87% of excess mortality could be attributed to SARS-CoV-2.
I really don’t think that these low CFRs are plausible cause the excess mortality is unusually high and the amount of people infected is not even near 100%.
My best guess at the moment is at least 1% CFR more likely to be over 2% depending on the health care system and demography. I hope I am wrong.
The same calculation for New York City:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html
For March roughly 5,000 deaths/year (and that is a generously high estimate). From March 4th to April 4th 9,780 death (this number is without the ominous 3,700) meaning an excess mortality of 4,780. 50% attributed to SARS-CoV-2 makes 2,390. Population 8,399,000. 100% assumed positive gives a CFR of 0.028%
For a CFR of 0.1% already 28% of all people in New York City must have been infected with the virus at April 4th. With these outdated numbers.
Excess mortality for New York State is not easy to get but let’s assume of the 18,776 deaths by COVID-19 on worldometer only half are really due to the disease and attributed correctly. That leaves us with a CFR of 0.048% if 100% of the population is already infected and nobody else dies of COVID-19 from now on.
For a CFR of 0.1% already 48% of all New York state must have been infected. Very. Much. Unlikely.
This truck driver has had a face mask.in his truck for the last 2 weeks. This morning I was required to use it for the first time. I’m delivering a refer load of Nestle’s product to the Tops DC in Lancaster, NY. Backed in door #318 waiting to be unloaded as I type this.
The politiburo of NY has ordered all comrades to comply and Tops will not even let a driver check in without a face covering.
Long ago I started doing everything I could do to avoid spending a dime in leftist states. If possible I won’t spend any of the companies money in them either.
The night before I checked in at Ft. Benning to start Ranger school I stayed in the same motel room that John Wayne used during the filming of that movie. I went through that school after I was already gone through the SFQC and on a team. In my class was a SGM that was in his 50’s that became the oldest soldier to graduate the course up to that time. I was already lean and mean when I started the course but still ended up losing 22 lb by the time I finished. Sleep deprivation and hunger were the worst of it for me.
So Aldo Ray (Muldoon) and Raymond St. Jaques (Doc) weren’t so unrealistically old? 😎
Na, they were but that didn’t detract from the movie for me. The whole jump scene was bad. Jump commands were BS, no time for conversations, John Wayne failing to hook up before giving the commands. Then later Wayne taking the bite of the rappel rope from the trailing end instead of the standing end. Those were the kinds of things that detracted from the movie for me.
That said, the theme of the Movie was right on. SF earned more CMHs than any unit of any size in Vietnam. I had the honer of meeting three of those recipients that survived.
My last Team Sgt did two tours as SF in Vietnam and held a DSC from that service for actions one hellish night very much as depicted in the movie. He was also at Desert One slated to go in as part of the team to rescue the hostages in Tehran.
Met many remarkable men during my decade as an SF soldier. The guy running the SFQC when I went through was Col. Ola Mize. Used an E-tool to take out the last eight Chicoms he killed defending some hill in Korea.
Apart from the many technical, historical and geographical flaws, a few things I noticed:
I’m pretty sure no one fired an M16 in the entire movie.
You could see ropes dropping the Huey that crashed.
The M16 that John Wayne smashed against a tree was a plastic toy. I had one just like it.
The A-1 Skyraiders attacked at night and the AC-47 attacked in daylight.
All that said, The Green Berets has been one of my favorite movies since I first saw it in 4th grade.
Without a doubt, the Green Berets are truly awesome. The books, Night of the Silver Stars: The Battle of Lang Vei and The Hunt for Bin Laden: Task Force Dagger by Robin Moore (author of the book The Green Berets) are two of my favorite books.
I never had the honor of serving… But I have the utmost respect for our armed forces, particularly the Special Operation Forces and USMC. My late older brother was a Sgt. in the USMC and spent 1967 somewhere north of Da Nang.
Thank you for your service.
I can’t repost it for you now from my phone but I have a great story from an SF MACSOG that had a pet tiger and used it for intimidation during interrogations.
Blindfold the noncompliant subject tied in a chair. Tiger brought in and put about a foot from the subjects face. Blindfold lifted as he pinched the back of the neck of his pet which was it’s signal to roar.
Said it worked Everytime. His team received praise for the accuracy of the Intel they provided.
When they left the Country the Tiger went with them and was donated to an Australian zoo where it sired many more to help make up for the heavy toll that war took on Asian tigers.
Thank you David. But really no thanks needed. It gave back every bit as much as I put into it.
De opresso libor!
As for war movies, my favorite is Kelly’s Heroes. Though it’s more of a bank heist than a war movie.
What impressed me the most was the lengths they want to to make a tank look as much like a Tiger I as possible. If you could ignore the T-34 running gear, it was a VERY good Tiger.
That and the all-star cast, just awesome.
Oh, BTW I read that people that received the attenuated flu shot, as I did, are showing false positives on the antibody tests. Can’t remember where I read that though.
WTI is trading at $11.28 at 12:15 UTC. What was that post you made about “premature?”
That’s the May contract that expires tomorrow.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/oil-markets-us-crude-futures-in-focus-as-coronavirus-dents-demand.html
The production cuts start in May, The June contract last traded around $22/bbl. Using your limited mentality, oil prices will roughly double when the contract rolls over.
Prices won’t begin to recover until the production cuts fully kick in and the ChiCom-19 hostage crisis ends. Without the production cuts, brokered by President Trump, oil prices would be much lower and the futures curve wouldn’t look like this:
The effects of shutdowning the world economy is like a bloodless world war.
Large institutional investors and countries will not be able to honor specific contracts.
“West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery tanked 92%, or $16.76, to $1.38 per barrel, its lowest level on record.”
Fire insurance pays out as long as every city in the world does not suddenly start to burn. If there is a world war, countries will claim force majeure, and walk away from contracts.
We need to get our economy restarted as the amount of permanent damage to the engine that creates real money (our country’s GDP) is time dependent.
What is going to happen is Left wing countries are going to walk away from their debt and their contractual obligations.
Italy, Spain, Greece, and then France will all be forced to default.
Paper money is just paper if the GDP machine is broken.
Hey! It’s Henry “Butt Hurt” Pool!
If COVID-19 is no different than a normal influenza pan/epidemic, why is this happening? https://www.huffpost.com/entry/boston-globe-coronavirus-death-notices_n_5e9d4abdc5b63c5b58714075
.
.
Why do they need refrigerated trailer trucks in NYC for all dead bodies?
The fact that the obituary listings are paid postings should tell you something.
Straw man.
Dead bodies in makeshift morgues (refrigerated trailers) is not a straw man. This thing is much much more deadlier than the flu. Ask any doctor or nurse on the front lines.
What evidence do you have that hospitals use of morgue trailers is due to overflow of their own morgues? Maybe they just want to get the dead bodies out of the building.
I don’t have to ask a doctor. They are speaking up and saying that their treatments may be a deadly factor in this illness.
Are you saying that intubation has the same risk factors in influenza as in COVID-19 ?
No, I’m not. Covid is unique because patients typically present with normal lung compliance (flexibility) and hypoxemia. In most cases it’s not pneumonia or ARDS (low lung compliance; inflexible). Doctors don’t know how to treat this new condition based on their training, which says stick a tube in them when certain parameters are met; but those parameters weren’t developed in trials that dealt with these types of conditions. High PEEP on compliant lungs can damage them and cause edemas. You need a lot of pressure to a inflate a stiff balloon (alveoli), but if you apply the same pressure to a flexible balloon, you can burst it, which is probably what is happening in misdiagnosed covid patients.
It is funny how everyone is commenting here based on their long held opinions, not even considering what the article states. The article discusses that the infection rate is much higher than the statistics are telling us, which pushes the fatality rate much lower. But most commenters ignore the article and just spout whatever they feel.
No valid statement can be made about infection rates period. Without broad based testing, and an antibody test that is specific for COVID-19 and not for other corona viruses, we are blind.
I have received more idiotic missives from the University today, missives that demand we obey commands never actually given, and then come here to read an interesting mix of comments from people who continue to see things without evidence. I feel like I am in the Middle Ages.
We started our response to this pandemic by trying to flatten the curve. That is to keep the medical system from being overwhelmed. We could have done this by isolating the group of people likely to get serious cases, i.e. those over seventy or sixty-five or whatever, a strategy I have seen work at small scale and which is scaleable. Instead we chose to lockdown the country and cripple the economy.
Now the mission has become to “save lives” or prevent the “spread of disease”, or “stay safe”, all of it ill-defined and enforced by the media and a group of busybodies. These goals are so foolish as to beggar belief. If we had isolated the vulnerables early none of this would matter.
We do not know how many active cases there are. We only know how many among those who self-offered to be tested have tested positive. We do not know how many are immune. If we did know these number they might help us assemble a plan to get out of this mess, but knowing these numbers might only fuel more fear and irrationality. People see what they expect.
People keep speaking of a vaccine in 18 months as a sort of salvation. I know of no vaccine against a corona virus, and there are many deadly illnesses for which no vaccine has been perfected. Yet, forthcoming vaccine or not, 18 months is too long for the status quo, and we have to come up with plans that do not depend of wishful thinking.
We have reached a present peak of this round of disease. We see lots of noise in the data. This is caused by vagaries of reporting, and the randomness of the responses of various groups as the disease sweeps across the nation. Italy is well beyond a peak, and we see its peak period had the same noisy quality to it.
The only short term solution is to isolate the vulnerable, open the economy, and let the herd build immunity slowly. Everything else, from political shaming, to irrational behavior, to constantly changing the goal, is unhelpful.
Middleton, the name of the virus is SARS-CoV-2. The name of the disease is COVID-19. Calling it anything else shows that you are confusing political science with medical science.
Pedantry.
When pedantry is all you got …
So anyone who fails to use the government approved name of anything is a bad boy?
It’s the name that doctors, nurses, and medical researchers are using. You know…. medical science, not political science.
Pool
Words are used to convey meaning. That can be affected by context. That is, if a researcher is giving a talk on communicable diseases to a group of peers, it is necessary to be specific so that they understand just which virus or viruses are being referred to. However, in the context of laymen discussing social, economic, and political consequences of the current epidemic, terms such as Kung Flu or ChiCom-19 are sufficiently descriptive that little or nothing is lost in meaning, and perhaps something is added that the two technical terms you prefer leave out. I suspect that is the essence of your complaint — what you want left out Or, maybe you are just a pedant.
Are you going to stop using the names Ebola? MERS? Lyme?
So the doctors on TV are using the government approved name, and to you this proves that only the government approved name is to be permitted?
Once again, all you got is butt hurt.
Since when is there such thing as “medical science”?
re: “Since when is there such thing as “medical science”?”
Are you serious? It is “the science of dealing with the maintenance of health and the prevention and treatment of disease” https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/medical%20science
Medical science covers many subjects which try to explain how the human body works. Starting with basic biology it is generally divided into areas of specialisation such as anatomy, physiology and pathology with some biochemistry, microbiology, molecular biology and genetics.
“Medical Sciences Library” – https://msl.library.tamu.edu/
You really “don’t get out much”, do you ng?
Obviously I’m absolutely serious.
Since WHEN does that thing you allege exists, exists?
(“When” in the English languages relates to time. The more you know.)
Idiot.
id·i·ot – Middle English (denoting a person of low intelligence): via Old French from Latin idiota ‘ignorant person’, from Greek idiōtēs ‘private person, layman, ignorant person’, from idios ‘own, private’.
Per wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiot
An idiot, in modern use, is a stupid or foolish person.
It was formerly a technical term in legal and psychiatric contexts for some kinds of profound intellectual disability where the mental age is two years or less, and the person cannot guard himself or herself against common physical dangers. The term was gradually replaced by the term profound mental retardation (which has itself since been replaced by other terms). Along with terms like moron, imbecile, and cretin, it is archaic and offensive in those uses.
———————
“The Clinical History of ‘Moron,’ ‘Idiot,’ and ‘Imbecile'”
https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/moron-idiot-imbecile-offensive-history
Idiots.—Those so defective that the mental development never exceeds that or a normal child of about two years.
Imbeciles.—Those whose development is higher than that of an idiot, but whose intelligence does not exceed that of a normal child of about seven years.
Morons.—Those whose mental development is above that of an imbecile, but does not exceed that of a normal child of about twelve years.
— Edmund Burke Huey, Backward and Feeble-Minded Children, 1912
@moderator
I think this is enough.
Consider giving it a rest. When did your ‘contributions’ start here? A month ago? Two months ago now?Compare that to 2006 in my case, and with a reasonably GOOD record of contribution all that time whereas you ?????
Consider giving it a rest.
Stop.
Harassing.
Me.
Why are you so bitter Henry?
TDS butt hurt, that’s why.
Something version 2 is just a dumb name. Don’t use it.
Figured it would happen but it’s being report in Australia there is a class action in the US against China
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/coronavirus-china-sued-american-class-action-germany-sends-bill/12164106
I see the German Newspaper Bild put the bill for Germany at 24 billion euros and if each of the over 200 countries affected did the same it would be an interesting bill.
There is a bit of Climate Change humour in this for COP26, where it will be funny watching any country try to claim reparations for CO2. China has clearly set the benchmark you can cause untold economic damages kill hundreds of thousands of people directly and it’s all okay. I suspect China will be very reluctant to even start or support that conversation because they will know what is going to come back at them.
I’m not sure how they will be able to collect, even if they are allowed to win.
Asset seizure could be a way, but whether winning or even a trial is possible is a big question. A Chinese company that I am suing for back wages is using COVID-19 to delay proceedings.
https://coronavirusintexas.org
.
18,923 cases, 477 fatalities for a death rate of 2.52%
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Much worse than seasonal flu.
Denominator; too small/incorrect parameter. Denominator not be the number tested. Further testing only increases that figure. You know this, or no? Probably not (my chosen bet.) Do you fly? Why would I not trust you to fly IFR (vs VFR)?
Does the same argument apply to the number of cases of flu when you compare it to COVID-19?
The flu season is over.
If you don’t know the significance of that, then just admit that you don’t know what you are talking about.
MarkW, if the flu season is “over” and the COVID-19 season is still continuing, then you have just given us evidence that the fatality rates are different. Thank you for providing evidence that comparing the flu to COVID-19 is “apples to oranges,” and that there is no similarity to their fatality rates.
Pool
Sometime rates are important, other times they are not. An intelligent person understands that. As an example, if one person catches an extremely rare disease, and dies, the rate is 100%. However, in practical terms, the loss of one life in a population of 300 million, is almost inconsequential except to family and close friends.
The death or fatality rate is not the important statistic – it is the total number of deaths. That depends upon death rate. and number of infections. COVID19 is deadlier than any seasonal flu because it is so contagious – even with the mitigating actions which the country has taken, which are NEVER taken for the seasonal flu, the total number of deaths will greatly exceed the average flu. That is because COVID19 is so contagious, especially because the early infection stage, when the infected individual’s output of viruses into the environment is greatest, is not recognizable. People are looking at death rate to compare diseases and this is invalid. Total deaths is the statistic that matters.
Add to this mess the FACT that the standard RECOMMENDED American Diet includes lots of whole grains and fruit. All grains are converted to sugar in the blood and fruit contains lost of sugar. That carbohydrate rich diet IS the cause of the US diabetes epidemic (and the long list of associated conditions). AND most viruses (maybe all) love sugar …. SO FEED the ChiCom 19 virus and KILL THE PATIENT.
So do you think the ChiCom Party understands how to encourage the spread of a virus that kills people in capitalist nations (and convinces political leaders to have their countries commit economic suicide). Or that they figured out how to supply thousands of tons of fentanyl to us to feed our opioid epidemic? Is it a sneaky coordinated attack? Cheaper and less noisy than a nuclear attack!!!
Most Americans eat very little whole grains; most grains they consume are refined. Refined and complex carbs are digested differently. Plus they eat a lot of refined sugars. If they ate only whole grains and less sugars they would be much better off.
$11 a bbl crude, down over 40% in one day:
.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=%40CL.1
re: “$11 a bbl crude, down over 40% in one day:”
At this rate, what need is there for electric (or Hydrogen?) vehicles, let alone BrLP’s (inaptly named) SunCell(tm) technology …
$7.75/bbl down 57% as of 12:24 EDT
And according to you demented understanding of reality, the price of oil will quadruple when it rolls over to the June contract tomorrow.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html
Perhaps a lesson in contango and backwardation is in order?
Contango and backwardation are terms used to define the structure of the forward curve.
When a market is in contango, the forward price of a futures contract is higher than the spot price.
Conversely, when a market is in backwardation, the forward price of the futures contract is lower than the spot price.
-CMEGroup https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-ferrous-metals/what-is-contango-and-backwardation.html
Henry doesn’t want to understand, he just wants to be right.
Interesting article about CC over at:
https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2020/04/recent-advances-in-climate-change-research-part-vi-more-on-the-simple-greenhouse-model
GEO EX PRO
OOPS….sorry…it’s dropped below $10/bbl:
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=%40CL.1
$4.30 at 12:53pm EDT
.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=%40CL.1
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html
$2.80/bbl @ur momisugly 1:24pm EDT
The May price could be $0.00 by the time it expires tomorrow. The June delivery price is currently $22/bbl.
Please don’t confuse Butt Hurt Henry with facts.
David,
This isn’t related to nCOV but I wanted to ask you:
It looks like the Saudis sent 20 oil tankers to Texas, arrival slated for May – and that these tankers hold about 7 months of Gulf Coast equivalent Saudi imports.
Given that demand is way down, and storage is getting tight – it seems the Saudi move will flood the market with even more oversupply even as WTI prices are collapsing (under $5 right now!).
My question: while I know you aren’t shale, do you have an idea if there is any difficult/cost to shut production off in a well? And cost/time to bring it back up?
This seems to be a unique situation: so much oil that there’s nowhere to put it, much less sell it.
… wonder if those are headed for the SPI (Strategic Petroleum Reserve)?
I thought they were going to be US produced oil for the SPI?
re: “I thought they were going to be US produced oil for the SPI?”
Oil is fungible*; sometimes accepting delivery here (point A) is offset by sending oil elsewhere (at a point B). Remember, we are net exporters, key word “net”. Hawaii I think imports from the ME for instance, but the US exports much more from the mainland, hence, large “net” export.
.
.
* goods contracted without an individual specimen being specified are able to replaced by another identical item elsewhere; mutually interchangeable. Kinda like a bank account: payment by checks drawn on your account but payment is to different persons through their bank wherever they may be.
” wonder if those are headed for the SPI (Strategic Petroleum Reserve)?”
I’m not sure where the Saudi oil is headed. Trump was asked about it yesterday in his news conference, as to what he was going to do about it, and he said he was looking into it. I don’t know what that amounts to.
Trump also said he still wants to fill up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and I think he is looking for other locations to store oil. He said this was a very good time to be putting oil into reserve since the cost was so cheap.
Apparently the Democrats in Congres blocked Trump from buying oil to put in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so he has changed gears and is now offering to rent out storage space, rather than buying the oil. I guess the Democrats can’t block that. Ya gotta love Trump! 🙂
We sure do need to vote those delusional Democrats out of office in November. They are holding up the show big time. They are nothing but an impediment to progress and common sense.
Shutting in a well isn’t a problem. The longer it’s shut in, the more difficult it might be to bring it back on. There is also the potential of losing the lease. In which case, the well would have to be plugged and abandoned.
Do you have a link to the Saudi tanker story? I’d like to look into it.
David,
I got the overall story from here: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/20/us-crude-oil-gets-annihilated-under-targeted-saudi-attack/
But it refers to sevearl Wall Street Journal links (in the article)
One thing… They are harping on the May contract price, which could be zero by the time it expires tomorrow. The spread between the front month (May) and second month is currently over $20/bbl, which is unprecedented. The WSJ link is paywalled, but enough of it was visible for me to check it out… Thanks.
Over 55 dollars at the close was the spread.
It has narrowed up some after the close of the trading day, with the May contract all the way up to only minus 25 a barrel or so.
Agreed – the May contract price is not as interesting as the potential driver: 20 tankers/ 40 million barrels.
That could a big deal although I don’t know normal/present demand vs. production delta to know how much of an impact that would have – and for how long.
The tanker story is kind of weird. The article said the oil already had buyers here, but that some of the oil could be diverted elsewhere. It strikes me as if someone might be planning on parking some tankers offshore and wait for oil prices to rise.
I think the tanker story is “much ado about nothing” or at least very little. The timing is odd, bit it appears the oil has buyers and this might be the last shipment of Saudi oil to the US for quite a while…
https://community.oilprice.com/topic/13216-flotilla-of-saudi-oil-threatens-to-worsen-us-supply-glut/