By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Early in 2001, an international corporation’s chief financial officer conducted a business-continuity appraisal of the entire business. All insurances were reviewed and brought up to date. The pension fund was audited to make sure it could meet its obligations. Health, safety and business-risk assessments of every kind were conducted.
The United States headquarters of the corporation were in a prominent New York skyscraper. The cautious finance officer decided that if one of the many totalitarian regimes worldwide that hate democracy and, therefore, have a particular loathing for the United States were to mount a terrorist attack, the building might be vulnerable. At some cost, he turned in the lease and, notwithstanding some grumbling from the board, moved the entire operation to somewhere less prominent.
The building was No. 1, World Trade Center.
The CFO was my brother-in-law, which is how I know the story. As far as I know, it has not been published before. For confidentiality, I shall not name the corporation, but you have heard of it.
Protecting any business, or any nation, from foreseeable but apparently not immediate risk always comes at a price. The arcane art of business continuity appraisal is to decide which risks are so potentially damaging to the corporation that they must be prepared for regardless of cost. The CFO’s assessment was that the corporation might not recover if it lost its entire United States headquarters staff. So he paid the cost and was proven right to have done so.
For various reasons, China is the source of most of the world’s recent pandemics. Therefore, countries in the region, such as Taiwan and South Korea, have taken elaborate business-continuity steps to make sure that if yet another Chinese pandemic was loosed upon the world they would be able to prevent the loss of life and colossal economic damage that would occur if they were not prepared.
South Korea established the gold-standard procedure: test as widely as possible, isolate all carriers, and vigorously trace all their contacts. The contact-tracing is done not only by making intensive use of cellphone data but also by recruiting an army of volunteer contact-tracers and setting them to work.
The ruling Democratic Party in Seoul has now reaped its just reward for its foresight and competence. In a general election with a record 66% turnout, with all voters wearing masks, keeping well apart from one another and being temperature-tested as they approached the polling stations, the party has won the largest majority ever to be achieved by any party since democratic elections were first introduced on the current model in 1987, a third of a century ago.
Most other nations, and in particular just about all Western nations, were nothing like so well prepared. They failed to realize that the Chinese Communist regime was lying about every aspect of the pandemic; they failed to notice that the World Health Organization, dominated by Communists, was repeating the Chinese lies rather than questioning them; their pandemic-response teams had failed to ensure that they could cope with population-wide testing, isolation of carriers and contact-tracing; and, when they had missed that bus, some of them dithered for weeks before imposing lockdowns, apparently unaware that not merely days but hours count if one wants to minimize the cost of a pandemic, in lives and in treasure.
At what point can lockdowns be lifted? As a rule of thumb, one should not lift a lockdown until the mean compound daily case-growth rate has fallen below 5% (and even that rate, if it were persisted in, would double the number of cases every two weeks).
In today’s graphs, Ireland stands out as going very much in the wrong direction: case growth is accelerating and, averaged over the past week, is now just below 11% a day. At that rate, new cases will double every week: and, since confirmed cases tend to be the more serious cases, deaths will eventually grow that rapidly too.
In many nations, business-continuity specialists are beginning to ask an important question: can the world afford not to sweep away the totalitarian regime in Peking and its poodles in international bodies such as the WHO?
Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 28 to April 15, 2020. A link to the high-definition PowerPoint slides is at the end of this posting.
Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 4 to April 15, 2020.
High-resolution images of the two graphs are here.
Wait…a doctor was up to no good?
Impossible!
We know from decades of talking about gore-bull warmening that we can ascertain motive by examining credentials, can we not?
/sarc
“A Southern California doctor is facing federal fraud charges after he allegedly told patients that the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine was a “magic bullet” that “cures” Covid-19.
Dr. Jennings Ryan Staley, 44, is the medical director of the Skinny Beach medical spa in San Diego, which normally offers services such as lip fillers, botox, and fat transfers. When the coronavirus pandemic broke out, the spa appears to have been transformed into a service selling patients coronavirus packages including hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, the other part of the controversial coronavirus drug cocktail, as well as vitamin C and zinc for nearly $4,000. The packets also allegedly included “anti-anxiety treatments,” according to the FBI.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fbi-charges-california-doctor-in-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19-scam/ar-BB12Kw94?li=BBnb7Kz
What will you tell us with your 2 comments ?
That there are idiots everywhere, even under medical personal ?
No doubt, there are more idiots under the sun as you may believe, n every job.
We have here in Germany a doctor of med. and homeopath making us believe COVID 19 isn’t more than a sniffle.
What will you tell us with your hateful grudge routine?
Anything about me?
Or perhaps more so about you?
You do not like me…I get it.
I decline to return the favor.
Lot’s of people here do not like me.
Some of them, such as our esteemed author of many articles over the past weeks, simply choose to avoid addressing me or my commentary even one single time over all of the days and many comments I have posted.
If you find them of no value, or harmful to your delicate sensibilities, maybe say so directly, instead of the endless passive/aggressive routine.
Or not, suit yourself.
I will defend your right to say whatever the heck you want to say.
How many patients have died from COVID19 complications because they recieved no medication?
My only impression is, that your comments in concern of medication against Covid-19 is somewhat onesided, why ever. There is nothing hatefull, and no question if I like you or not. I don’t know you personally – I read what you write, and comment it, that’s all.
You aren’t such an impotant individuum that you cause me quite a headache.
Ecuador is seeing a major covid19 outbreak (or maybe it’s just flu? NOT) in which thousands have died. Many more than the reported figures. In the province of Guayas 6700 people have died in the first half of April, where the expected number is ~1000.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52324218
This is a baleful sign that tropical climate is no defence against covid19 pneumonia.
More anecdotal reports trickle in:
“PUTRAJAYA, April 17 — Antiviral drug ‘remdesivir’ has been used to treat COVID-19 patients in the country, says Health director-general Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah.
He said, however, the ministry was still monitoring the results of its use, and it was too early to share anything.
“What is certain is that we do not have any issues with the drug, nor others. In terms of stock, we have a sufficient amount to treat patients,” he said during the daily COVID-19 press conference here today.”
https://www.bernama.com/en/general/news.php?id=1833227
Repeating this post since first attempt with sarcasm failed (always a bad idea on blogs).
The false argument still widely circulated is that “there’s no need for a lockdown because covid19 is just another sort of flu. More die from flu than from covid19.”
In hard hit areas that’s not even true. But that’s not the worst problem with that argument.
As it happens, this year’s (2020) spring flu deaths are much less than normal. That’s because of the lockdown, which is effective at reducing flu.
So can you see the problem? If the lockdown is reducing flu, how can it not be reducing covid19 also? If we assume it’s also a virus and not caused by G5 mobile phone mast deadly rays. (That’s meant to be sarcasm also, BTW.)
Flu levels are like a kind of label or tracer. If lockdowns are reducing flu (and they are) then they are reducing covid19 spread also. Which is good. And which is achieving the goal of reducing intake of seriously ill patients in hospital intensive care units.
And meaning that hospitals don’t run out of respirators and respiratory associated equipment – something that does not happen every flu season.
It will be very bad for climate change (alarmist) skepticism for it to become associated with covid19 and lockdown skepticism also.
Ok, let’s not compare with flu.
and Corona has nothing to do with these-
3,826,154 Communicable disease deaths so far this year.
So what, has that changed?
Where are the deaths?
flu is averaging about 40,000 deaths a month so far. Is that a reduction?
How does that compare to 140,000 COVID deaths in the last month with lockdowns in place?
over estimating aren’t you?
“In Italy, it has been established that only around 12% of the people listed as having died of the coronavirus were killed by it. The other 88% almost certainly died of something else. (The Italian Government’s scientific advisor reported that anyone who dies in Italy and who has the coronavirus will be listed as having died of the coronavirus. The National Institute of Health revaluated the death certificates and concluded that only 12% showed a direct causality from the coronavirus. )”
how many have been misattributed?
In London about 10,000 deaths would be expected in a typical March. This March there were 16,000 deaths. So this year there was an excess of about 6000. Hospital data give coronavirus deaths in the capital as about 3000. That leaves still and excess of about 3000. Add to that the mild winter it has been, and that 3000 excess deaths seems more real. It’s quite likely that the real covid19 deaths could be as much as twice the hospital quoted number. Thus in a place like London, deaths from covid19 are more numerous than from flu.
Where hospitals are overloaded, number of deaths from coronavirus will always be undervalued. It was the same in Wuhan. Many people died at home because the hospital did not manage to receive them.
Phil Salmon, data from Belgium is very worrying. The highest number of deaths per million inhabitants with high population density. It will be difficult to reduce the number of cases.
Phil Salmon, it seems to me that Belgium should vaccinate citizens over 65 with plasma with antibodies.
Ren
Yes Belgium is world #1 for deaths per million from covid19. It has the highest population density in Europe, but has a reasonably high standard of living and good healthcare system. There are differences in how countries report deaths, for some reason no-one understands, all deaths from care homes are being assigned to coronavirus, without testing.
Belgium is one of the countries with the social habit of kissing on both cheeks (although sometimes it’s an air-kiss) along with Italy, France, Spain – all of these are high covid19 countries. There’s a reasonable amount of business travel between Belgium and China. But apart from that, it’s not obvious why Belgium has such a high rate. Although the hospitals intensive care capacity has coped with the coronavirus caseload without ever approaching overload.
The schools here are going to reopen on May 4. Yes vaccination and plasma/antibodies would be good for any country.
It is people in nursing homes who should get plasma with antibodies in the first place, because these are now the outbreaks of infection. After all, people who look after the elderly in nursing homes are spreading this virus.
I don’t know if you have death data for specific age groups. In my opinion, people over 65 are vulnerable to Covid-19.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-04172020.pdf
I regard the statement from Gilead on the latest from the Chicago hospital results, as important evidence tat they may…MAY…have more good news in the offing.
After all, if they had bad news, would they be “looing forward” to having it released?
Hmmm…
““What we can say at this stage is that we look forward to data from ongoing studies becoming available,” Gilead said in a statement to STAT.
President Trump and FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn have highlighted the antiviral drug — found to work against SARS and MERS, two other coronaviruses — as a promising therapy.”
Also good that Trump was out in front of many, in encouraging more investigation of this drug.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/ebola-drug-remdesivir-helping-treat-coronavirus-gilead-sciences/
How much counting could a counter count if a counter could count counts?
“New York City increased its death count by more than 3,700 on Tuesday, after officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it.”
Couldn’t some of the deceased have died from the flu? Yet be counted as COVID deaths?
It seems COVID counting is overrated.
Do the US want to be like China and not report deaths? Compare with deaths from respiratory failure from other years at the same time. The difference may indicate the effect of coronavirus.
you mean the 4000 who die daily from pollution in China according to the Guardian.
Can anyone tell me how is this known?
“Everyone in the whole country is vulnerable to this,” said Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine. “Nobody has pre-immunity. That’s totally unlike flu.”
Lock down is impossible and cause utter misery .
Lock down for nothing.
Monckton,
You are ignoring the problem situation. The economic damage due to isolation is time dependent.
The ‘solution’ to covid-19 which you propose, testing and isolation, will not eliminate the virus from major centres and from entire countries.
and to break quarantine, your solution requires masks. Masks are absolutely necessary unless there is microbiological solution.
What we are waiting now for, is billions of masks.
In high population centers, such as large cities in South Korea, China, Japan and so on, people all wear masks when they travel on mass transit, shop in malls, walk on busy streets, and so forth.
That helps, however, masks do not stop the virus and the fear.
“What we are waiting now for, is billions of masks.”
We do not need flaky paper masks made in China which are not even effective with a beard ( currently in vogue it seems). Anyone can place a tee-shirt over their nose and tie the sleeves behind their head. Tuck the rest down your shirt and you have an all enclosing “mask”. Keep two, wear one, wash the other in soapy water.
There’s a dozen ways to make a basic mask. The Pentagon even made a video.
If you want to stop the fear, turn off the TV. You’ll feel better right away !
hmmm-
“Swiss chief physician Pietro Vernazza
The Swiss chief physician of Infectiology, Professor Pietro Vernazza, has published four new articles on studies concerning Covid19.
The second article is about the fact that respiratory masks generally have no detectable effect, with one exception: sick people with symptoms (notably coughing) can reduce the spread of the virus. Otherwise the masks are rather symbolic or a „media hype“.”
Since no one can be sure who does and who does not have the virus, obviously everyone must wear a mask, since even the most intransigent will admit that masks reduce virus being emitted by the infected.
Now, if they block virus escaping the body, obviously they to the same job in the other direction, as long as it is made to be the case that all air you are inhaling is passing through the fabric.
There are a welter of studies on this topic, and the only way one can say they do not work to help and assist to prevent a person from being infected, is due to lack of compliance in usage.
They do not block every particle, but they do not have to.
One must use them as a part of an organized and rational barrier strategy.
And a barrier is only as effective the least effective aspect of it.
When we are out in public, and people with and shedding the virus are crossing our path, we must keep in mind what they means. We must keep in mind the presence of fomites.
Particles settle onto our footwear, so we must take that into account.
Gloves become contaminated, so we must have a plan for eliminating that contamination without ever spreading it to our face…mouth, nose, eyes, etc.
Clothes will have virus on them.
We all need to have a grab kit when we go out.
Lysol spray, disposable gloves, disinfectant wipes, 93% isopropyl, squeeze bottle of iodine solution (iodine on hands is proven to provide residual antimicrobial action for at least one hour after application, which means virus will be killed when it touches your hand), safety glasses, goggles…
What I do is rotate footwear.
Remove all clothes and immediately place into washing machine.
Rinse hands, spray feet, wipe handles of cars, carts, doorknobs, wipe steering wheel, glasses, keys, every thing you touch.
You cannot remove your barriers willy nilly.
You must think about which things must be done in what order, and do not make a mistake.
Do not touch your face until you have been wiped and rinsed.
I carry a set of microfiber clothes (packs of 100 are about $10 at Sam’s club) for wiping my face.
Then after using it once, place it into a plastic back to go into the laundry machine with the clothes. Have a bunch of them, and a bunch of sandwich bags, and a bunch of those thin plastic shopping bags. Shop at big stores and do self check out.
Sam’s Club has scan and shop.
You scan items with phone as you wander around the store, and then they scan your phone real quick at the exit door and email a receipt.
No one touches anything you touch and vice versa.
Do not contaminate your grab bag kit.
Lysol spray, Clorox wipes, several kinds of plastic bags both zip lock and thin type, supply of clean microfiber clothes, glasses (sunglasses if you have no goggles, N-95 mask (they can be sterilized and have been shown to not be contaminated in most cases even in hospitals, but assume they are and make sure to sterilize. Heat and UV are a sure bet. Viruses are fragile…it is not like trying to kill bacteria. Assume virus is everywhere and on everyone and behave accordingly. Turn away when passing people. Speak at a distance. If someone coughs hurry away. Avoid non mask wearers like the the plague…or like a Zombie Apocalypse…because they are the ones who are not only most likely to have stupidly gotten themselves infected and to not be being careful, but they are also to ones spewing far and wide if they are infected.
Give everyone a wide berth and walk around the long ways. Avoid the dumb people strictly. Face away when passing, especially if it is people waking together and talking, etc.
Spray all packages except stuff like produce that it will be impossible to remove it from. There are sprays for that if you want.
And take a shower right away before getting dressed and putting on clean clothes.
Wash stuff with bleach, either oxygen or chlorine type.
Whoever invents a two way viricidal mask gets filthy rich, but it is ridiculous to suggest that a clothe will only block a particle in one direction.
They fail due to poor compliance.
However, if one is not going out much, and hurries through shopping, and avoids others as much as possible or feasible, it is not hard to be perfect, and easy to be very good re compliance.
The problem is the weak link in the chain effect.
And realize you do not need to prevent every possible virion from touching you.
If you are careful and fastidious and attentive, if you do get some virions, it will be far less than otherwise, and that may be better than no virions. But do not count on that, just let it set your mind away from being a nervous Nellie.
Even if you get infected you have and overwhelming likelihood of being fine.
Most eckspeshally iffen you know where clinical trials are in your area…care is superior in such trials. Data is being recorded, everyone is getting paid extra (one reason it costs billions to get a new drug approved), the clinicians are top notch, and care is spelled out in explicit detail.
The longer one does not get infected, the better, for many reasons:
-Care is improving as the learning curve in all settings advances,
-Treatments are being winnowed based on what has and what has not been shown to work.
-Less virus is in circulation if new cases are declining in an area, at leas tit is likely this is the case. –The people you encounter and more likely to be immune/recovered.
-Stupid people are removed from circulation.
From Nick’s Pandemic Handbook, Volume 1.
*Firs Edition, draft.
Sorry about the numerous typos.
A general principle of passive antibody therapy is that it is more effective when used for prophylaxis than for treatment of disease. When used for therapy, antibody is most effective when administered shortly after the onset of symptoms. The reason for temporal variation in efficacy is not well understood but could reflect that passive antibody works by neutralizing the initial inoculum, which is likely to be much smaller than that of established disease (5). Another explanation is that antibody works by modifying the inflammatory response, which is also more easily achieved during the initial immune response, a stage that may be asymptomatic (6). As an example, passive antibody therapy for pneumococcal pneumonia was most effective when administered shortly after the onset of symptoms, and there was no benefit if antibody administration was delayed past the third day of disease (7).
For passive antibody therapy to be effective, a sufficient amount of antibody must be administered. When given to a susceptible person, this antibody will circulate in the blood, reach tissues, and provide protection against infection. Depending on the antibody amount and composition, the protection conferred by the transferred immunoglobulin can last from weeks to months.
https://www.jci.org/articles/view/138003