By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
In Italy and Spain, two of Europe’s hardest-hit nations, the compound daily growth rates in cumulative cases of Chinese-virus infection have fallen to 2.8% and 3.4% respectively. The lockdowns in these two countries are, for the first time, being eased.
Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 28 to April 12, 2020. A link to the high-definition PowerPoint slides is at the end of this posting.
Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in reported COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 4 to April 12, 2020.
The United States (7.5% daily growth) and the United Kingdom (8.4%) still have some way to go before it is prudent for them to end lockdowns.
South Korea and Sweden got away without lockdowns. South Korea had contained the pandemic with a very early, very vigorous and very thorough campaign of testing, isolating all carriers and following up and testing all their contacts, banning large gatherings and encouraging people to keep their distance from one another and to wear masks and, if possible, eye protection in public. That is the gold standard. Do that and there is no need for a lockdown. South Korea’s growth rate in cumulative cases is now down to just 0.4% per day.
Sweden, having failed to act as fast or as thoroughly as South Korean, nevertheless decided not to lock the country down completely, though some restrictions were imposed. Its daily growth rate in cumulative cases is 6.3%.
Two further factors are worth bearing in mind. First, Sweden has a low population density. There are two prime determinants of the rate at which a new pathogen will spread during the early stages of a pandemic. The first is its infectivity: how readily it is transmitted between people in close proximity to one another. The second is the mean person-to-person contact rate. This will be much lower where population density is lower.
Central Stockholm, for instance, has a population density about one-fifth that of central London. It could get away without a lockdown where London simply could not.
Stephen Mosher has supplied some interesting figures showing that both in South Korea and in Sweden the usage of public transport has fallen by some 60%. Once the people have become educated in the need to take precautions for themselves, many of them will have the common sense to do so, even if there is no lockdown in place.
Contrast that sensible behavior with the UK, where as recently as March 13, the day before Mr Trump announced a state of emergency in the United States, the last day of the four-day Cheltenham Racing Festival went ahead just as usual, with huge crowds attending. That was silly.
And it was not until almost two weeks after Mr Trump that Mr Johnson finally realized that, unlike Sweden, Britain was too densely-packed into huge urban centers to allow him to get away without a lockdown. By heeding the “herd-immunity” merchants at Oxford University and leaving it far, far too late, Mr Johnson guaranteed that Britain would have a worse experience with the pandemic than any other country in Europe.
Eventually, however, the hard-headed “Save the hospitals from utter collapse” team at Imperial College, London, prevailed and the lockdown happened. At least it was just in time to prevent the total collapse of the health service: but, as things stand today, all surgical interventions other than Chinese-virus cases and emergencies have been canceled for many weeks, and will continue to be canceled until further notice. Losses of life from these cancelations are not included in the death figures, and Britain is bending the numbers still further by not counting deaths at home or deaths in nursing-homes in the daily death counts.
By now, in Italy and Spain the populations are sufficiently well educated that their governments consider that a gradual dismantling of the lockdowns is now possible.
On the data, then, the first lesson the world needs to learn from this pandemic is that the sooner determined action is taken to test, isolate and contact-trace the more likely it is that no lockdown will be needed; that the chief reason for lockdowns is to ensure that the hospital system is not overrun; and that if for that reason a lockdown is needed it should be introduced as soon as possible. Later lockdowns are longer and more costly lockdowns, as Britain is learning the hard way.
Meanwhile the climate Communists, desperate to try to regain the world’s attention, are saying that the Chinese-virus pandemic has taught climate “deniers” the value of believing the “experts”. Well, it has done no such thing, for the “experts” are no more agreed among themselves about how to deal with this pandemic than they are about whether capitalism should be destroyed so as to “Save The Planet” from mildly warmer worldwide weather.
However, lockdowns and the consequent decline in economic activity do provide us with a very interesting test of whether CO2 concentration will detectably fall and whether, even if it does, the gentle warming of recent decades will slow. Watch this space: the earliest indications are that the climate Communists are in for something of a shock.
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Scientists in Iceland found 40 mutations of the coronavirus among people with the deadly bug in the country — and that seven infections came from people who attended the same soccer match in the UK, according to a report.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/iceland-scientists-found-40-mutations-of-the-coronavirus-report-says/
https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/03/forskere-sporet-40-mutationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island
Around the world, I am seeing efforts to support ‘quick-fix’ programmes aimed at developing vaccines and therapeutics against COVID-19. Groups in the United States and China are already planning to test vaccines in healthy human volunteers. Make no mistake, it’s essential that we work as hard and fast as possible to develop drugs and vaccines that are widely available across the world. But it is important not to cut corners.
Vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, polio, smallpox and influenza have a long history of safe use and were developed in line with requirements of regulatory agencies.
I have worked to develop vaccines and treatments for coronaviruses since 2003, when the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak happened. In my view, standard protocols are essential for safeguarding health. Before allowing use of a COVID-19 vaccine in humans, regulators should evaluate safety with a range of virus strains and in more than one animal model. They should also demand strong preclinical evidence that the experimental vaccines prevent infection, even though that will probably mean waiting weeks or even months for the models to become available.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00751-9?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_campaign=NGMT_USG_JC01_GL_Nature&fbclid=IwAR0KTQQI_FfO9RgJrdceKql9xoicHbeDa0VwZz6lNjP24WHuDPp4h4HcaXU
ren is, as ever, right on target. One should be very careful before introducing any new medication in case it does more harm than good. We don’t want another Thalidomide.
The flu vaccine is safe? Since when?
Nearly all childhood vaccines are linked with serious diseases and death.
But will they exercise caution or will they rush a dangerous vaccine to market? They are indemnified from all liability even if they produce a dangerous vaccine. Will you take the risk even if it could k!ill or maim you? It’s the height of folly to take a something to avoid death that ends up k!illing you, but that’s what fear does to people.
In the current situation, you should not count on a quick vaccine. Ask those who have recovered to donate plasma to seriously ill patients. This will allow the economy to start faster.
That’s a most interesting idea. Can it be done safely?
Yes, it is already starting up in Poland. This is a method known for over 100 years. Now, however, the laboratories at blood donation stations are well equipped and are able to separate different blood fractions.
I gave 35 liters of blood honorably. Plasma can be separated from blood at the blood donation station. Plasma is sold to pharmaceutical companies.
A protein called “interleukin 22” can help regenerate thymus damaged by chemotherapy or radiation. A study in which this protein is used to treat patients who have had a bone marrow transplant rejection is currently in phase II clinical trials. The number of new T lymphocytes after treatment is measured, which will prove whether this protein can be used to improve thymus function.
The use of another protein called “interleukin 7” in several preclinical studies has shown promising results in promoting immune regeneration, and in clinical trials, increasing the number of T lymphocytes. The direct effect of the protein on thymus in humans must be carefully studied.
The encouraging results of several clinical studies have shown that the use of human growth hormone supports thymus regeneration.
Denying facts doesn’t lead to anything. You need to focus on the real possibilities of fighting the virus, because this is an opportunity for the economy.
Hypothetically if we had enough n95 masks and the entire USA population was told to wear them as much as possible for 3 weeks, how far would this go to reducing the number of cases ?
unknown and maybe unknowable
It would dramatically lower new cases as long as people maintained a sane level of social distancing even while wearing masks.
This virus spreads like wild fire when people are screaming in close quarters.
A “Mosh” pit 🙂 is probably the best way to spread this disease. A rock concert, sports event, choir practice, or “close talkers” in a noisy bar are prime spreading environments.
Sitting on a bus that is half full with everyone in masks would result in a low transmission probability.
Full with people standing would raise that to a higher probability. But still much lower than the same example without masks.
Masks are very effective on this bugger. It is small but it requires droplets to spread that are largely filtered out by masks. The most effective side of the equation is on the spreader side. Their ability to broadcast the virus to the surrounding area is greatly reduced. For the non-infected the fact that most of the air they breathe will be filtered will be adequate in most social situations as long as the infected are adequately masked.
“Only 12% of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus”, whereas in public reports “all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.”
– Italian Professor Walter Ricciardi
______________
And in Sweden , no lock down, – https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-pandemic-for-many-in-sweden-life-goes-on-as-usual/2020/04/06/7402f68e-75bb-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html
The UK has recorded over 6000 more death registrations in Week 14 (April 3rd) than is normal for this week in the year. Coincidentally, this is exactly the week we expected an uptick due to the Covid-19 cases so whether or not the deaths are “with” coronavirus rather than “of” it, there has been a significant increase.
But the deaths that week are not more than a comparable.other years flu week.
No lock down, does not mean no closures or rules on social distancing, use of PPE, etc. And most people in Sweden would not say that life goes on as usual. Any commenters from Sweden?
“According to the latest report of the Federal Office of Public Health, the median age of test-positive deceased is now 84 years. The number of hospitalised patients remains constant”
“A study by ETH Zurich found that the infection rate in Switzerland fell to a stable value of 1 several days before the „lockdown“, presumably due to general hygiene and everyday measures. If this result is correct, it would fundamentally question the sense of a „lockdown“.
“the Swiss magazine Infosperber criticizes the information policy of authorities and the media: „Instead of informing, authorities conduct a PR campaign„. Misleading figures and graphics are used to spread at least partly unjustified fear”
“The Swiss consumer protection magazine Ktipp also criticises the information policy and media reporting: „Authorities provide misleading information„.
“In an open letter to the Swiss Minister of Health, Swiss doctors speak of a „discrepancy between the threat scenario, which has been fuelled above all by the media, and our reality. The Covid19 cases observed in the general population were few and mostly mild, but „anxiety disorders and panic attacks“ are on the increase in the population and many patients no longer dare to come to important examination appointments. „And this in connection with a virus whose dangerousness, according to our perception, exists in Switzerland only in the media and in our heads.“
Due to the very low patient workload, several clinics in Switzerland and Germany have now had to announce short-time work. The decrease in patients is up to 80%’
Why do people keep comparing or highlighting countries with small populations to make a point?
How about Japan with no lock down?
Pop- 126 million, will that do?
Look I can trump your Japan with Singapore.
If you had done your homework you would know that all the Asian countries that went through the MERS & SARS epidimics were all well prepared for COVID.
They had Quarantine, Testing, Tracing, plenty of PPE, Masks and Hand Cleaning products.
The majority of the early Japanese cases were from the Diamond Princess cruise ship who were immediately quarantined.
They did not allow the virus to spread like Europe and USA, which only leaves various stages of isolation to control the spread to prevent overwhelming Hospitals.
People keep talking about the COVID mortality numbers, forgetting that there are almost as many dying from normal illnesses due to not being able to get local health care.
Would you want a broken leg, or a car accident if you were in New York?
How did Japan with no lock down prepare?
or on the cruise ship , Princess Diamond, that had 11 deaths?
Diamond Princess now has 12 deaths, 61 active cases with 7 severe.
Good data from the China experience would also be helpful, though probably will not be forthcoming. How did they avoid major outbreaks outside of Hubei, or did they? What was their thinking to shut down trains and planes from Wuhan to domestic routes, while leaving international routes open?
Diamond Princess had Total Lockdown of all passengers in their cabins and still has a 1.5% mortality rate with 7 more in ICU.
Half of those in ICU probably won’t make it.
Why didn’t you mention those facts?
A C Osborn-
It was cruising thru the ship for the first week or two before anyone went down. Probably every surface was infected.
I think that’s because the small countries have been through a variety of different experiences with the virus. Mainly I suspect because they were all hit by it very suddenly, and were in different stages of preparedness. Contrast San Marino and Andorra with the Faeroe Islands and Iceland, for example.
It’s a start-
“In a statement, the Federal Association of German Pathologists demands that there must be autopsies of „corona deaths“ (in order to determine the true cause of death) and thus explicitly contradicts „the recommendation of the Robert Koch Institute“, which spoke out against autopsies, allegedly because they were too dangerous’
A pathologist isn’t able to protect himself, that’s RKI sight – strange
Humour required-
“In the US, the authorities now also recommend that all test-positive deaths and even suspect cases without a positive test result be registered as „Covid deaths“. An American physician and state senator from Minnesota declared that this was tantamount to manipulation. Furthermore, there would be financial incentives for hospitals to declare patients as Covid19 patients’
Apparently ventilators can damage lungs and cause death, so maybe death certificate should say “death by ventilator” or even homicide.
AUSTRIA ESTIMATED ~~140,000 TOTAL COVID-19 INFECTIONS 384 DEATHS DEATHS/TOTAL INFECTIONS = ~0.27%
The study suggested that the estimated number of infections within Austria to be on average around 9 times higher than the recorded number of infections.
… the number of asymptomatic individuals within the Austrian population is y an order of magnitude higher than are being detected by the targeted SARS-CoV-2 testing.
Asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 within Austria
———————————————
Two recent studies have investigated the number of unreported
asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 within Austria. The number of
undetected cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections is expected to be a multiple
of the reported figures mainly due to the high ratio of asymptomatic
infections and to limited testing.
1. Hirk R, Kastner R, Vana L. Investigating the dark figure of
COVID-19 cases in Austria: Borrowing from the deCODE Genetics study in
Iceland. ResearchGate 2020. doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18427.05928;
——————————————————————————–
Using data from testing in Iceland, which offers large scale testing
among the general population, the researchers investigated the
magnitude and uncertainty of the number of undetected cases of the
COVID-19 disease in Austria. The study suggested that the estimated
number of infections within Austria to be on average around 9 times
higher than the recorded number of infections (95% confidence range:
3.76 to 15.55). Such findings support the need for systematic tests in
the general population in order to fully understand the true
incidence.
Abstract
——–
The number of undetected cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections is expected to
be a multiple of the reported figures mainly due to the high ratio of
asymptomatic infections and to limited availability of trustworthy
testing resources. Relying on the deCODE study in Iceland, which
offers large scale testing among the general population, we
investigate the magnitude and uncertainty of the number of undetected
cases of the COVID-19 disease in Austria. We formulate several
scenarios relying on data on the number of COVID-19 cases which have
been hospitalized, in intensive care, as well as on the number of
deaths and positive tests in Iceland and Austria. We employ
frequentist and Bayesian methods for estimating the dark figure
[asymptomatic infections] in Austria based on the hypothesized
scenarios and for accounting for the uncertainty surrounding this
figure. Our study contains two main findings: First, we find the
estimated number of infections to be on average around 9 times higher
than the recorded number of infections. Second, the width of the
uncertainty bounds associated with this figure depends highly on the
statistical method employed. At a 95% level, lower bounds range from
3.76 to 7.09 and upper bounds range from 10.93 to 15.55. Overall, our
findings confirm the need for systematic tests in the general
population of Austria.
2. COVID-19 prevalence in Austria. SORA Institute for Social Research
and Consulting
——————————————————————————–
In the period 1-6 Apr 2020, 1544 randomly selected individuals from
across all regions of Austria were sampled and tested for the presence
of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. The study revealed [a prevalence] rate of
0.32% (95% confidence interval 0.12%-0.76%). This number represents
the number of infected individuals at the time of sampling and
calculated up to the whole population would indicate a total number of
between 10 200 und 67 400 infected individuals circulating at the time
of sampling (in addition to those infected individuals either in
hospital or self-isolating at the time of sampling).
The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Austria stands at 13
818 as of [12 Apr 2020] (representing all cases reported in Austria
since early March [2020]) and would seem to confirm that the number of
asymptomatic individuals within the Austrian population is
approximately an order of magnitude higher than are being detected by
the targeted SARS-CoV-2 testing.
______________________________
Country Cases Deaths Recov. Active Serious Cases/M Deaths/M Tests Tests/M
Austria 14,135 384 7,633 6,118 243 1,569 43 151,796 16,854
Austria*10: 140,000 Total Cases 384 Deaths Deaths/Total Cases ~= 0.27%
3 Contrarians Against Lock-downs
Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, Professor Emeritus of Medical Microbiology at the Johannes Gutenberg University
https://youtu.be/JBB9bA-gXL4
Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, Internist, Pneumologist, Social medicine expert, MD of Hygiene, environmental clinicist and former head of a German Health administration
https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI
Professor Knut Wittkowski, for twenty years head of The Rockefeller University’s Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design
https://youtu.be/lGC5sGdz4kg
Here’s what I don’t get. So…these lockdowns were supposed to “flatten the curve” and keep the hospitals from overflowing. I get that.
But now that the infection rate is slowing and the lockdowns are being relaxed, I would expect the infection rate to grow again. I mean, you’re releasing multitudes of people with no immunity into a community with lots and lots of infected people right? If one person in NY spread it to most of the city within a few weeks, why wouldn’t that happen again immediately after the lockdowns are removed?
If the infection rate doesn’t increase again after the lockdowns are relaxed, the virus isn’t continuing to propagate right? Doesn’t that mean the lockdowns were unecessary to begin with? If the locked down people aren’t going to get it now, why would they have gotten it before?
You present a lot of great questions. People are still going to social distance and use PPE and better hygiene practices, which they weren’t using before at least to the same degree. So, there are many variables that are at play and with novel viruses we can’t know what behavior they will exhibit precisely.
People have already learned how to avoid infection. Where the number of deaths remains high, they will definitely be cautious.
Here in Alberta, the Covid-19 lock-down has resulted a debacle.
Most of our deaths are in nursing homes – our policy seems to be “Lockdown the low-risk majority but fail to adequately protect the most vulnerable.”
Doctors are apparently reluctant to prescribe Chloroquine because of inadequate formal clinical tests, but actual clinical experience elsewhere suggests a high degree of success. “Let’s wait until we get formal studies!”
The global data for Covid-19 suggests that deaths/infections will total 0.5% or less – not that scary – but much higher and clearly dangerous for the high-risk group – those over-65 or with serious existing health problems.
“Elective” surgeries were cancelled about mid-March, in order to make space available for the “tsunami” of Covid-19 cases that never happened. Operating rooms are empty and medical facilities and medical teams are severely underutilized. The backlog of surgeries will only be cleared with extraordinary effort by medical teams, and the cooperation of patients who die awaiting surgery – patients who were too impatient to wait.
This may look like 20:20 hindsight, but I called it this way in ~mid-March.
Regards, Allan
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/10/but-is-the-growth-of-the-pandemic-really-exponential/#comment-2964810
[excerpt}
BAD CALL – END THE LOCKDOWNS ASAP.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743
“The UK government’s scientific advisers believe that the chances of dying from a coronavirus infection are between 0.5% and 1%.”
I believe this Covid-19 estimated mortality range “between 0.5% and 1%” (deaths/infections) is ~correct for a typical country’s population distribution , and my hunch is “closer to 0.5%” – that is not very scary except if you are in the “high risk” group – over 65 years of age or otherwise high-risk (with other medical problems) – Covid-19 deaths are heavily concentrated in the high-risk group.
I still think my ~mid-March assessment of this situation was the correct one:
“Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five.
This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.
If tests prove positive, use chloroquine and remdesivir or other cheap available drugs ASAP as appropriate.”
With rare exceptions, we have not seen the “tsunami of cases overwhelm our medical systems”, and we have trashed our economies and severely harmed hundreds of millions worldwide who live from paycheck to paycheck. Considering the pro’s and con’s, the full lockdown was a bad call.
Regards, Allan
https://rosebyanyothernameblog.wordpress.com/2020/03/21/end-the-american-lockdown/comment-page-1/#comment-12253
[excerpt}
Hi Willis,
I posted the following yesterday on wattsup – similar ideas.
This full-lockdown scenario is especially hurting service sector businesses and their minimum-wage employees – young people are telling me they are “financially under the bus”. The young are being destroyed to protect us over-65’s. A far better solution is to get them back to work and let us oldies keep our distance, and get “herd immunity” established ASAP – in months not years. Then we will all be safe again.
Totally agree.
I forwarded this note to media friends in Canada and the USA this morning.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-the-chinese-virus-lockdowns-that-have-done-their-job/#comment-2965819
Not sure we will ever get an honest assessment of this Covid-19 lockdown debacle from the authorities – now that they made this bad call, they are probably committed to defending it.
Grand total death count in Alberta as of April 16, 2020: 50.
50 people have died, most of them in nursing homes and continuing care facilities.
This is worth torpedoing our economy, unemploying thousands, and disrupting everything?
This is not the “new normal.” This is wrong and abnormal: Tyranny.
TRUMP ANNOUNCES 3-PHASE GUIDELINES FOR GOVERNORS TO REOPEN STATES
BY Allen Zhong, April 16, 2020
https://www.theepochtimes.com/trump-announces-3-phase-guidelines-for-governors-to-reopen-states_3315255.html
“A serological study in the US state of Colorado comes to the preliminary conclusion that the lethality of Covid19 has been overestimated by a factor of 5 to a factor of 20 and is likely to be in the range between normal and pandemic influenza’
“A study conducted by the Medical University of Vienna concluded that the age and risk profile of Covid19 deaths is similar to normal mortality’
“The Norwegian Medical Association writes in an open letter to the Minister of Health that they are concerned that the measures taken could be more dangerous than the virus, as normal patients are no longer being examined and treated’
“A Covid19 field hospital near Seattle in Washington State was closed after only three days without admitting any patients. This is reminiscent of the hospitals built at short notice near Wuhan, which were also mostly under-utilized or even empty and were then dismantled after a short time”
It’s also dangerous for the welfare of the doctors, who may lose regular visitors who need no actual care but want a bunch of exams.
“The Swiss chief physician of Infectiology, Professor Pietro Vernazza, has published four new articles on studies concerning Covid19.
The first article is about the fact that there has never been medical evidence for the efficacy of school closures, as children in general do not develop the Covid disease nor are they among the vectors of the virus (unlike with influenza).
The second article is about the fact that respiratory masks generally have no detectable effect, with one exception: sick people with symptoms (notably coughing) can reduce the spread of the virus. Otherwise the masks are rather symbolic or a „media hype“.
The third article deals with the question of mass testing. The conclusion of Professor Vernazza: „Anyone who has symptoms of a respiratory disease stays at home. The same applies to the flu. There is no added value in testing.“
The fourth article deals with the Covid19 risk groups. According to current knowledge, these include people with high blood pressure – it is suspected that the Covid19 virus uses cell receptors that are also responsible for regulating blood pressure. However, surprisingly, people with immunodeficiency and pregnant women (who naturally have a reduced immune system) are not at risk. On the contrary, the risk of Covid19 is often an overreaction of the immune system’
Now we begin to see in Britain some say possibly the worst numbers of Covid 19 deaths in Europe; so what all the fuss has been about.
From the British Office of National Statistics, for the week ending 03 April, deaths from all causes were 16,387. That is 6,000 above the five year average for that particular week.
To put that in perspective, 15,000 died in week 2 of 2018 and 14,000 in week 2 of 2020
Added to which, 17 out of the last 18 weeks of 2019 had been above the five year average but, before the week ending 03 April 2020, all deaths for 2020 were cumulatively about 4,000 below the five year average.
The distribution of deaths by age groups appears to be pretty much plumb normal.
UK Covid 19 deaths apparently started decreasing by 11 April.
If England has, as some have suggested, been the worst affected country in Europe, deaths for 2020 now running at perhaps 1% or so above the five year average for the year so far, am I the only one thinking that we, that is, the entire continent of Europe (with the honourable exception of Sweden), may have indulged ourselves in a complete overreaction not far away from what Corporal Jones might well have regarded as abject panic?
Apparently not:
‘Personally, I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65s people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!’
Professor John Oxford, Queen Mary University London, one of the world’s leading virologists and influenza specialists
The numbers of UK covid-19 hospital deaths always go down at weekends…….not lower deaths, but weekend record keeping
Yes.
the record keeping of certain governments is abysmal.
In 1786 Korea was hit by what is presumed to be a measles outbreak.
King Yi San ( Jeongjo) cemented his reputation as a benevolent Confucian leader by
donating his own royal medicine to the poor. He also relied on citizen science
by requesting the people share their home remedies with the health officials.
He is a fascinating historical character, the only son
of prince Sado who died after being locked in a rice box for 8 days by his father.
A short history is here. Amazing how quickly he set up a response to the outbreak in under 6 days.
https://journals.openedition.org/extremeorient/333
As for record keeping:
“Following King Jeongjo’s order that reports were to be submitted every
5 days, reports on the number of patients and those treated and the provision
of medicine were submitted up to 13 times. Thanks to such reports, specific
statistics on the number of patients are available.
Total number of cases examined and treated: 6,689 cases (Palace Medical
bureau 2,232, Public Dispensary 4,457). Outpatients: 93.3%, doctors’home
visits: 6.7%
Total number of hongyeok patients: 8,174 individuals (male children –
4,766 (58.3%), female children – 2,714 (33.2%), male adults – 349 (4.3%),
female adults – 345 (4.2%)
Hongyeok peaked between the day 27 of the fourth month and day 2 of
the fifth month, immediately after the first reports. It decreased considerably
by day 19 of the sixth month, and then decreased gradually, to be eradicated
around day 29 of the sixth month. In addition, as befits a pediatric infectious
disease, most of those diagnosed as having the disease were children. However,
there were no statistics on the number of deaths.
It is possible also to confirm the provision of medicines: 5,363 prescriptions
were provided, 7,781 packages of medicine, 4,547 ansinhwan pills, and 825 ox
bezoar unguent pills were distributed. Ansinhwan and ox bezoar unguents were
among the very costly medicines bestowed on officials and female attendants close to the king on year-end sacrificial rite days and their provision to the
populace during times of infectious diseases was unprecedented. Initially,
medical officials at the two medical offices tried to avoid dispensing this
medication, but the medicine was provided as instructed after admonitions by
King Jeongjo, who completed this unprecedented project, making use of his
own personal wealth.”
A few years back there was a fantastic 70 episode nightly drama about the king.
the epidemic is in episode 50.
https://youtu.be/xqVYeSKMoy8?t=67
Thank you Stephen for o your many factual reports from South Korea.
Stay safe and well.
Best personal regards, Allan MacRae
Interesting stuff, +100
Nothing unusual-
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876005/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_13_2020_report.pdf?fbclid=IwAR11-IzKNde3JXBZp4uIdaQbjMvnFnTQ7l4ZEucKF81aU9p1aQvXkwWZW5A
No. But that’s because the data only goes up to week 12 when there were very few deaths. We have seen a huge spike in week 14 and we expect a bigger one in week 15.
Many have been focused on the peak (big spike) for the last month. Yet the big spike never seems to appear. I see the cases and death rate ramp up for nay given nations, and then the numbers trend sideways on the plateau afterwards. All nations show the same phenomenon. … https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876005/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_13_2020_report.pdf?fbclid=IwAR11-IzKNde3JXBZp4uIdaQbjMvnFnTQ7l4ZEucKF81aU9p1aQvXkwWZW5A
“In week 12 2020, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed
overall in England, through the EuroMOMO algorithm. In the devolved administrations, no statistically
significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland and Wales in week
12 and for Scotland in week 10 2020.”
Priceless-
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876005/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_13_2020_report.pdf?fbclid=IwAR11-IzKNde3JXBZp4uIdaQbjMvnFnTQ7l4ZEucKF81aU9p1aQvXkwWZW5A
Still struggling with this, I see.
The UK had only a few hundred deaths by March 26th nd most of those wouldn’t have been registered anyway.
hmm, do you think it will be as high as 2017/18?
Remember Oxford Uni think half the country have already had the virus.
Dear Christopher,
Grow a pair. It’s just a virus. Stop lecturing us on education. Grtz. An angry mom, dependent on public transport, kids as well. Oh well I should stay away here.
We need much better information on how coronavirus is transmitted, with good studies.
how airborne is it really?
Do people get it in high-rise buildings in which filtration systems aren’t updated? or is it from the elevator buttons.
Is it more of being in a room with someone breathing on you?
Is the sneeze the end all?
Is it more load based. Ie; what about if you just walk past someone that sneezes?
Understanding these ?s and similar ones will allow us to do a much better job at reducing the spread.