By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Some commenters responding to this daily series providing some information about the Chinese virus have repeated what seems to have become something of a mantra among libertarians who, understandably, dislike the idea of widespread lockdowns, with the loss of freedom and the economic damage that they entail. That mantra is that the Chinese virus is no more infections or no more fatal than flu, and that if we had allowed everyone to acquire immunity by catching the infection and throwing it off all would be well.
Look at today’s graph. Though the downtrend in the daily compound growth rate in total confirmed cases now appears well established, that growth rate is still very high, averaging around 8% globally outside China and occupied Tibet, where the numbers are unreliable.
The red curve shows the case growth rate for the world excluding China. If the 8% daily growth rate were to continue, yesterday’s 1,430,919 confirmed cases (many of which tend to be those serious enough to have come to the authorities’ attention, since testing is still occurring on a tiny scale in most countries) would have risen to nearly 8 million by the end of April, and more than 80 million by the end of May.
It is important, therefore, to ensure that the now well established downtrend is maintained. That is why, for the time being, governments will be keeping lockdowns in place. It would be irresponsible to do otherwise.
Of course, one might legitimately argue that, if the Chinese virus were really no worse than flu, the crippling social and economic cost of lockdowns would be unjustifiable.
But governments cannot afford to make policy on the assumption, perhaps a little too carelessly made by some commenters here, that the virus is no more dangerous and no more infectious than flu.
Here, then, to help us to begin to answer that important question, are some tolerably reliable, real-world data. I am grateful to the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center in London for having made details from its Case Mix Programme Database available. The Case Mix Programme is the national clinical audit of patient outcomes from adult critical care.
The Center has recently issued a report on all confirmed UK cases reported to it up to midday on 3 April, just a few days ago. Critical care units notify the Center as soon as they have admitted any patient with confirmed Chinese virus, together with demographics, initial physiological state, organ support and eventual outcome.
The report concerns 2249 patients, whose mean age at admission was 60 years, compared with 58 years for 4759 patients with non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia, most of them caused by flu, over the three complete years 2017-2019.
Of the 2249 patients, 346 (15%) have died, 344 (15%) have been discharged alive, and 1559 (69%) are still in critical care. The case fatality rate, as a fraction of all closed cases admitted to intensive care, is thus a little over 50%, compared with only 22% for the non-COVID viral pneumonias of the past three years. In each age-group (under 50, 50-69 and 70+), the percentage of patients admitted to critical care with the Chinese virus and subsequently dying in hospital is at least twice the percentage of critical-care patients with other viral pneumonias over the previous three years.
Among those requiring ventilation, two-thirds die by the end of their critical care and only one-third survive. Therefore, the case fatality rate for closed cases where ventilation was required is more than 67%, compared with only 16% for non-COVID viral pneumonia cases requiring ventilation.
Worse, advanced respiratory support for Chinese-virus cases is typically maintained for between 4 and 9 days (average 6 days), while it is not needed at all in non-COVID-19 viral-pneumonia cases, which require only basic respiratory support, and require it only for 2-4 days (average 3 days). The data are similar for cardiovascular support, and for renal support. The Chinese-virus cases tend to require advanced rather than basic support, and to require it for twice as long. And yet, even after all that extra care, the case fatality rate is many times higher than for non-COVID viral pneumonias.
On the assumption that about half of all this year’s critical cases of seasonal viral pneumonia would have occurred by now, and making no allowance for any further exponential growth in Chinese-virus cases in intensive care, and assuming that the summer will stop the virus causing critical cases (an assumption that the authorities, rightly, do not regard themselves as being in any position to make yet), there are approximately three times as many serious Chinese-virus cases than all other viral pneumonias combined, including those caused by flu, in a typical year, and at least twice as many of these will die than with other serious viral pneumonia cases.
Thus, the Chinese virus is six times more fatal than pre-existing viral pneumonias, including those caused by flu.
In the past three years, some 46% of viral-pneumonia cases were female and 54% male. With the Chinese virus, however, only 27% are female and 63% are male.
The report also considers ethnicity. About four-fifths of the UK population is White, but only two-thirds of the critical cases to date are Whites. Blacks, in particular, are three times over-represented in intensive care: they represent one case in seven, but are only one in 20 of the population.
Body mass index was also studied, but the number of cases in the below-normal, normal, overweight, obese and morbidly obese categories is not far out of line with the general population, two-thirds of whom are overweight or obese. Some 72% of intensive-care Chinese-virus cases are overweight or obese.
Interestingly, the number of cases with cardiovascular, respiratory, renal, hepatic, cancerous or immunocompromised comorbidities was quite small. In all these categories, it was less than for the usual viral pneumonias over the past three years.
In the past three years, non-COVID viral pneumonias have put 43% of patients on to ventilators within the first 24 hours. The Chinese virus, however, is worse: it puts 63% on to ventilators within the first 24 hours. Therefore, governments planning hospital capacity for Chinese-virus cases must make extra allowance for the greater demands, both in advanced rather than basic care and in days of treatment, than other viral-pneumonia cases.
The doctor through whom I came upon these figures, who has himself suffered with the Chinese virus and has recovered, is very angry that for political reasons those who understandably dislike lockdowns have been maintaining, contrary to the evidence, that the Chinese virus is “no worse than flu”.
Be in no doubt. This disease is a lot worse than flu. It puts more people into intensive care, where they require costlier and more advanced treatment, where they will be in intensive care for twice the time required by other viral pneumonia-patients, and where they are more than twice as likely to die as those other patients.
So don’t dismiss it lightly. Not any more. Wash hands often. Wear full-face masks when out of doors or away from home. Take Vitamin D3 daily. Be safe.
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“Consider the Imperial College predictions for the UK without lockdown, or the McKinsey predictions for New York without lockdown, and then compare them with what these graphs show.”
Consider what the ‘models’ say about Climate Change!
We (US) average about 7,900 deaths daily. How does 2020 year-to-date compare to the last, oh let’s say, last10 years?
If this virus is as bad as the author says, we should be seeing a spike in deaths due to Covid-19. What does the data say?
Amazing, no lock down in Japan and no deaths today according to Worldometer.
“That mantra is that the Chinese virus is no more infections or no more fatal than flu, and that if we had allowed everyone to acquire immunity by catching the infection and throwing it off all would be well.”
I probably have had the flu several times, but I never had it tested in order to know what kind of virus the flu was.
And maybe I never had the flu. But I have sicknesses, and the one I didn’t like at all, involved lots of vomiting.
So if had sickness which involved vomiting or feeling like very close to vomiting- I would call it, the flu. But maybe someone would correct me and say it was the stomach flu. Let’s look it up:
How many stomach flu viruses are there?
Viruses that most frequently cause it include norovirus, rotavirus, and adenovirus. The norovirus alone causes up to 21 million cases of the stomach bug in the United States each year.
Now if I eat something which wrong/bad which has happened a few times in my life, I feel like going to throw up and I might. I don’t call that a flu. And same applies if I were to drink a lot alcohol. Anyhow I have not ever had bad case of food poisoning.
I have never been to doctor or hospital because I thought I had to the flu, but my general understanding was that, I could get a flu that is bad enough that I should seek medical care- but it has not happened, yet.
And I have not stomach flu quite while, maybe 10+ years.
I get what I would call a “cold” of varying degrees and rarely do I get a fever. I probably had serious fevers when a child- but remember any of it, mostly due the fuss about taking my temperature. Colds and fevers were almost good because one could skip school. But vomiting with flu was is not good way to get out of school- I was ok with school and I would wish to have it, rather than lots of vomiting.
Anyways, I have had viruses, but I don’t what viruses they were, but read recently an article about someone who wanted to find out what virus they had- and cost hundreds of dollars and took way too long to get the test results.
And my impression is it’s probably a mistake for anyone to try to get test for what virus they have.
It seems to me to get a test {or many tests} one has to been stuck in a hospital bed- and I have yet to have that particular pleasure.
So, my question is, generally do doctors only do tests when “they need help” to determine what is wrong with you. And/or whenever they trying to figure out what flu is happening in all the hospitals. And once have test done, they know symptoms associated with virus. And rather than give a test {which takes to long to get result] they evaluate a patient symptoms, and guess what treatment to give.
Anyhow:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus called SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV). SARS was first reported in Asia in February 2003. The illness spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before the SARS global outbreak of 2003 was contained.
Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world. The content in this website was developed for the 2003 SARS epidemic.
https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html
The global outbreak may have been contained, but how could we know it’s gone-
could it stop being a problem for number of reasons. And if it’s not regarded as a hospital problem, you don’t waste time and money doing the test for it.
Anyhow, hopeful this pandemic, will engage the private sector, so that we get a fast and cheap test for at least one virus.
But it’s crazy way to do this.
This all goes ditto for me and everyone I know and my family: Never go to hospital or doctor office for cold, flu, or throwing up.
I have had strep throat a few times, and if it is bad I get an antibiotic which sometimes required a office visit. Strep throat, as I have always called it, is when you wake up one morning, no head cold symptoms, but intense pain on swallowing, that lasts for day after day.
Sometimes other symptoms arrive over time.
But colds, flu, vomiting…I know doctors can do little for these conditions, so going is a waste of their time and mine, and plus the best thing to do is just stay in bed and rest…not go somewhere.
I went to a website called “The Covid Tracking Project”, located at …… https://covidtracking.com/
I clicked to the appropriate data page for my home state, North Carolina, and tabulated data from when NC started recording all Covid-19 tests. I won’t show the data here, but the gist is that, at the start of this specific data tabulation period by my state (03-18-2020), the number of Covid-19 tests completed was 1,850. Now, as of this writing (04-09-2020), the number of Covid-19 tests completed stands at 47,809.
So, in just 22 days, the number of completed Covid-19 tests has gone from 1,850 to 47,809 in my state alone.
That’s well over a 2000% (two thousand percent, or 2484%, to be more precise) increase in the number of tests. And tests are the only means by which cases are confirmed. Explain to me how this indicates the true extent of the virus into the whole population?
As more tests are completed, more cases are recorded — this merely shows that case numbers track completed tests, and I do not see how any deeper conclusions can be drawn than that.
Go to the website, and tally the history of testing in your own state.
And, data gurus who have far better kung fu skills with those figures than moi, tell me what you think.
… guess I should have typed, “kung fu flu skills”, but I probably shouldn’t be joking about this too much.
Interesting stat –
Sweden with no lock down has a slightly lower amount of cases than Israel. Israel has a smaller population.
Sweden has had more deaths.
What would really be interesting is knowing how Sweden assesses cause of death vs how Israel assesses cause of death, and how Sweden confirms a “case” vs how Israel confirms a “case”.
“In a world first, the Swedish government has announced that it is going to officially distinguish between deaths „by“ and deaths „with“ the coronavirus, which should lead to a reduction in reported deaths. Meanwhile, for some reason, international pressure on Sweden to abandon its liberal strategy is steadily increasing.
The Hamburg health authority now has test-positive deaths examined by forensic medicine in order to count only „real“ corona deaths. As a result, the number of deaths has already been reduced by up to 50% compared to the official figures of the Robert Koch Institute”
Robert
And to make comparisons, we need to know the average age and percentage of elderly in each country. It also helps to know the population densities.
comparing deaths isn’t fair comparison. ie: people dying from the flu, on average are younger.
if you compare death years left to life, the difference isn’t as large.
In response to Mr Rady, governments cannot afford to consign their elderly and infirm people to the scrapheap. They have to look after all their citizens. It was necessary to prevent the utter collapse of healthcare systems swamped by patients requiring – but not obtaining – intensive care. The fact that the patients are chiefly elderly is neither here nor there, which is why arguments such as that of Mr Rady were given very short shrift indeed by governments.
Lessons learnt? Governments world wide need to stash away emergency funds to cover rainy days. Take Norway (population 5,5 mill) :
“It [Norway] has over US$1 trillion in assets, including 1.4% of global stocks and shares, making it the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund.
This is not the economist you are looking for, but I can see a logical fault with that. Those 1.4% of global stocks and shares just took a massive (hopefully temporary) hit. That’s what tends to happen in global emergencies. Those are not the sort of funds you need to cover an emergency. Those are funds for long term returns.
Governments can always gain emergency funding: print money or borrow money. Those cover emergencies nicely. The headache comes later.
Sorry, this detached comment is meant in reply to Michael Carter April 9, 2020 at 1:20 pm.
Happy for deletion.
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley,
I think your detailed comparisons of influenza and COVID-19 were valuable. Likely to be revised with better data in the future, but really enhancing our perspective now.
That mantra is that the Chinese virus is no more infections or no more fatal than flu, and that if we had allowed everyone to acquire immunity by catching the infection and throwing it off all would be well.
I have not seen that anywhere, except as here, quoted ironically or in mockery. What I have seen are comparisons to other serious health problems, like influenza, polio, measles, auto accidents, diphtheria, pertussis, cancer; and the question, is this really so much worse than those that these extremely costly measures are worth the cost? Should we not give more weight to the Japanese example, especially now that we have more quantitative information, where complete shut down within the nation was not necessary, and the masks seem to have worked?
Even if the lockdown has been effective, as I think it has (agreeing with you), it is extremely difficult to show in the data because so many people started “self lockdowns” before lockdowns were ordered: people cancelled travel plans, professional organizations cancelled annual meetings (local and national), business started to restrict job-related travel, and so on. In no country state or province (except maybe the city of Wuhan and the province of Hubei) was there a sudden onset of “social isolation”.
I appreciate your responses to some of your critics.
I am most grateful to Mr Marler for his characteristically thoughtful comment. In the UK, doctors at the front line, in intensive care units, are in absolutely no doubt whatsoever: the lockdown was absolutely essential, for otherwise the entire healthcare system would have been brought down.
As it is, all elective surgeries have had to be canceled nationwide; a dozen massive emergency intensive care units have had to be built; and even these steps have not proven enough in some areas, where intensive-care capacity is fully taken up.
The lockdown in the United Kingdom will be brought to an end just as soon as possible – but not before.
To understand why lockdowns work, it is necessary to understand the epidemiology of transmission of pathogens, which depends upon two factors: the infectiousness of the pathogen and the average number of people with whom each infected person interacts in a day. Since the first cannot yet be controlled, for we have no vaccine and no sufficiently tested prophylactic or palliative, the only option is to address the second.
Cellphone data show that person-to-person contact has been reduced by 85-95% through lockdowns. The effect on the rate of transmission is self-evident.
The graphs I publish here each day do not in themselves provide a formal demonstration that lockdowns work. They do suggest that lockdowns are working, since the compound daily case growth rate has been falling rapidly, though it remains dangerously high.
But the graphs also show results for Sweden, Taiwan and, above all, South Korea, where there have been no strict lockdowns and yet the case growth rate is small. In the far eastern countries, they were ready for yet another virus to emerge from the filth that is China; in Sweden, I am not yet sure what is going on, but I suspect that there was far greater intensive-care capacity in the hospitals from the outset, allowing a more relaxed view to be taken.
I am also looking at indications that the number of confirmed cases is being more and more undercounted. And two days ago Sweden had the greatest daily case growth rate in deaths anywhere, even though I use weekly smoothing. Some 2000 doctors in Sweden have signed a petition begging the government to introduce a lockdown, which suggests that all may not be as well there as the official figures indicate.
DEATHS PER MILLION (ascribed to COVID-19) as of 07 Apr. 20
Britain 79 lockdown
ITALY 273 lockdown
SPAIN 295 lockdown
FRANCE 137 lockdown
SWEDEN 47 no lockdown
BRAZIL 3 small lockdown
SOUTH KOREA 4 small lockdown
JAPAN 0.7 no lockdown
Deaths as of 09 Apr. 20
Britain locked down 3 weeks: 7,998
Sweden NO lockdown: 793
Taiwan NO lockdown: 5
Unlike the lockdown countries, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea have a flight lockdown i.e. you need permission to fly into the country and on arrival you can expect a strict quarantine.
Meanwhile…the lockdown countries are destroying their economies at a rate of 10% per month
If lockdown continues in Britain for all of March + April + May = 25% of economy dead; 5 million unemployed; thousands of small businesses bankrupted; and a possible massive rash of mental breakdowns and suicides.
People will die of the virus, but lots of people will also be killed by the lockdowns the longer they continue. People get other diseases and they cannot be properly treated if the lockdowns go on and on. Health check-ups are skipped, long-promised operations cancelled and illnesses like cancers left undiagnosed until it is too late. There are also the serious mental health implications, and this is not just about the effect of the job losses and poverty that will follow, but the fact that staying at home is a living hell for some people.
Not all people are wealthy politicians, royals and celebrities who live in big houses and have millions in their bank accounts. There are lots of people that wont be killed by the virus itself directly, but by extensive lockdowns. Also the approach of the media headlines that sadistically enjoy people’s imprisonment amounts to criminal activity towards the more fragile.
There is little point in saving someone’s life only to make their lives a living hell. With no economy, who will pay the social workers that play a part in making sure people who come out of hospital have a home to go to and someone to care for them? With a dead economy and no other country in the world remaining to borrow from, it just won’t happen. People will die, and this fancy lockdown and “stay home save lives” campaign will have been for nothing.
Coronavirus could be exterminated – if lockdowns are lifted
“What people are trying to do is ‘flatten the curve.’ I don’t really know why.”
The unprecedented policy of mass quarantine to “flatten the curve” is only prolonging the coronavirus pandemic. If people were allowed to lead normal lives and the vulnerable were sheltered until the virus passes, says Knut Wittkowski, Ph.D., the former head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Research Design at the Rockefeller University, New York.
“What people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why,” he said in an interview with The Press and The Public Project that was featured by The College Fix. “But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time, and I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary.”
Wittkowski explained that the only thing that stops respiratory diseases is herd immunity – when a large percentage of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, which stops its spread: “About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible.”
At the same time, the elderly should be separated and the nursing homes closed. After about four weeks, with the virus dead, their children and grandchildren can return.
The standard cycle of respiratory diseases is two weeks, after which “it’s gone.”
“Social Distancing” is Useless
Even with “social distancing,” the epidemiologist said, the virus find ways to spread, albeit more slowly. “You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians — anybody. People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts; and any of those contacts could spread the disease. It will go slowly, and so it will not build up herd immunity, but it will happen. And it will go on forever unless we let it go.”
Wittkowski was asked his opinion of Dr. Anthony Fauci, the key medical expert on the White House coronavirus task force who has promoted the mass quarantine strategy. “Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science,” he replied. Why is this virus being handled differently than others, such as the swine flu in 2009? One factor, he said, is the growth of the internet, which spreads news quickly, whether true or false, fueling panic. “These stories are circulating the world and contributing to chaos and to people being afraid of things they shouldn’t be afraid of,” he said.
https://ratical.org/PerspectivesOnPandemic-II.html
https://www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
Sasha has not, perhaps, understood the urgency of the situation that faced governments as the Chinese virus began to spread. It became apparent early on, and is now confirmed by the data referred to in the head posting, that patients in intensive care would require more advanced treatment than those with other respiratory infections, and for longer, and with a less favorable outcome.
There was a real danger that, particularly in cities with much high-rise accommodation, the infection would overwhelm hospital services unless emergency action were taken to inhibit transmission. The purpose of that inhibition was to give the health authorities time to make the necessary additional provision.
Of course it would have been better if all nations had been as well prepared as South Korea or Taiwan, in which event no lockdowns would have been necessary. But in Britain, where there was no spare intensive-care capacity, emergency measures were regrettably inevitable.
Of course the economic consequences are costlier. They would have been costlier still if the entire healthcare system had collapsed, leading inexorably to a breakdown of social order. As it is, the lockdown in the United Kingdom is being very widely supported by the population. The Government will, of course, bring the lockdown to an end just as soon as it can.
Already, several very large intensive-care hospitals have been created out of nothing within weeks. Capacity is growing daily, and is – for now at any rate – just about outstripping demand in most places, though not all.
The British Government’s approach had nothing to do with the internet and everything to do with listening carefully to both sides of the scientific debate and then taking a command decision in the nick of time.
“Occupied Tibet”. Monkton have you the first clue about what was the most odious regime on the Planet? The Dalai of the day and his awful Priesthood sending out lists of body parts required for certain rituals or the mutilations for the slightest infractions, the slavery,starvation and misery those people were held under?
Then of course one recalls the privileged upbringing and class mores you were raised within and surprise gives way to a weary understanding of your position on such matters.
The tedious anti China trope you continue to raise is of interest though as my understanding of history as perceived by an individual as poorly educated as I was that the Opium Wars had ceased some while back.
In response to Mr Hartley, one should not be an apologist for the brutality and aggression that is Chinese Communism. I can assure Mr Hartley that the suffering people of Tibet, if given a choice between the Dalai Lama’s administration and that of his ideological bedfellows in Peking, whose predecessors occupied Tibet by brute military force and hold it to this day in the same ugly fashion, would expel their cruel Chinese occupiers in a heartbeat.
The Communists have even redrawn the map of Tibet to conceal just how much territory they stole. It is time to set Tibet free.
The Tibetans were mown down by the Maxim guns as they fled. “I got so sick of the slaughter that I ceased fire, though the general’s order was to make as big a bag as possible”, wrote Lieutenant Arthur Hadow, commander of the Maxim guns detachment. “I hope I shall never again have to shoot down men walking away”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_expedition_to_Tibet
Hardly a position from which to take self-righteous stance viz-a-viz anyone’s treatment of Tibet.
As to brutality and oppression can I say that most of us locked in our homes because of the overwhelmed NHS and Dr’s and Nursing staff on the frontlines watching the NHS staff have the easiest few weeks of their lives with Hospitals not only empty of routine appointments but of elective surgery appointments would also welcome some of that freedom at the moment.
The Worldwide filming of empty Hospitals and the false footage, no doubt some of those countries would welcome some freedom from oppressive Government.
For all your statistical models are worthless with the misreporting misattribution of the true fatality count. Gash in Gash out. For sure they may/may not work with good data but the CDC and NHS are obviously massaging the figures shall we say to be kind. We’d like freedom from that. Plus other posters are questioning you on the efficacy of your models so there’s no axe to grind on my side.
Had to add another comment MoB as I left out the fact that you did not directly address the brutality of the Llamist’s obscene Feudalism of physical mutilations and serfdom that applied to 90% of the population, give or take a statistical %age point or two.
Allow me to add my condemnation of the Communist Chinese theft of Tibet. And let me also condemn all those in the world who cowtow to China’s leaders and refuse to show Tibet as a separate nation. Cowards! You know who you are.
Some bad people committed brutality in the past, so that prevents us from condemning brutality in the present? I don’t think so.
Free Tibet! Maybe that Karma Thing will come to their aid. There certainly aren’t many human beings coming to their aid.
China’s leaders are going to overstep their bounds one of these days. Their Wuhan virus attack on the world is not going to be well received.
A French study (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300972) came to the conclusion that the lethality of Covid19 does not differ significantly from known coronaviruses studied in a hospital. A study published in Nature Medicine has come to a similar conclusion even for the Chinese city of Wuhan- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
In response to Richard, the report from the intensive care cases in the UK shows that the Chinese virus is more lethal than previous coronaviridae. One reason is that the S-proteins have mutated in such a way as to give easier access to cells: that is why the Chinese virus jumps between species so readily.
The NHS response is always overwhelmed-
UK
“In December of 2019 the NHS had to implement “emergency temporary beds” in 52% of its hospitals to account for their regular “winter crisis”. Most of those hospitals still had temporary beds operating from the previous winter.
Last November experts were publishing reports warning that the NHS was under too much pressure to deal with the seasonal flu’
Spain-
n Spain, flu collapses hospitals almost every year.
“In 2017 the Spanish-language Huffington Post site asked “Why does the flu mean collapse in Spanish hospitals?”.
In the 2017/18 flu season, hospitals all over the country were in a state of collapse.
Last March, hospitals were at over 200% patient capacity.
In 2015 patients were sleeping in corridors”
“Countries without lockdowns and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea and Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. This may call into question the effectiveness of such far-reaching measures’
There is no doubt that Japan and Sweden must be studied and contrasted with nations that selected stricter isolation measures.
Regarding Sweden; the jury is most definitely out, as case loads and mortality continues to rise.
Have lived in Japan for five years, I can say that Japan is unique in many respects.
– obesity ( a major morbidity factor) is much lower than the international average.
– Likewise, with diabetes and heart disease.
– Japan is still a closed society comprised of several islands. A curtailment of travel likely limited exposure.
– Japanese place a premium on hygiene and wear masks at the first sign of illness.
– Citizens feeling unwell will automatically self-isolate, as cultural norms place society over individuals.
For those arguing that this no worse than the average flu consider this. The US death toll for the two weeks ending this Friday will likely be equal to a normal flu season for a year when we get the vaccine right and that April will probably be the most lethal single month since October 1918. And that is with restrictive measures in place. Covid-19 might not be the black death but it is not anything like a seasonal flu.
“For those arguing that this no worse than the average flu consider this. The US death toll for the two weeks ending this Friday will likely be equal to a normal flu season for a year when we get the vaccine right…”
But we don’t normally get it “right”
And obviously we don’t have any vaccine for Chinese Flu (SARS-CoV-2).
And obviously WHO screwed up, and Chinese government caused WHO screw up {but if WHO was led a by honest and competent leadership, then Chinese govt couldn’t have caused WHO to screw up as badly as they did}.
So Chinese govt (and Poo Bear) + WHO screwed up the world.
And I guess most people don’t expect WHO to screw up as bad as they did.
I did. I don’t expect much from WHO -or the UN.
” and that April will probably be the most lethal single month since October 1918. And that is with restrictive measures in place. Covid-19 might not be the black death but it is not anything like a seasonal flu.”
April is tail end of flu season in Northern Hemisphere. And:
Posted on March 10, 2019
Historically, flu activity peaks around February each season and then quickly drops off. But not this year. According to a nationally representative sample of U.S. prescription fills for the flu treatment, Tamiflu (oseltamivir), this year’s flu season reached a peak last month—and the disease is continuing to spread.”
Has a graph:
https://www.goodrx.com/blog/how-bad-is-flu-season-2018-2019-tamiflu-prescription-fills/
But I think the Chinese flu is just starting in South America- in temperate zone and a lot population lives in high elevation regions {with cool temperatures year around}. It seems to spread slowly in warm region and regions with Malaria- India and Africa. I don’t think India will have a problem, if they continue to closely monitor it.
And seems Europe was very hit hard, but it seems to be winding down, now.
Just curious: why vitamin D3 in particular?
Vitamin D is more than just one vitamin. It’s a family of nutrients that shares similarities in chemical structure.
In your diet, the most commonly found members are vitamin D2 and D3. While both types help you meet your vitamin D requirements, they differ in a few important ways.
Research even suggests that vitamin D2 is less effective than vitamin D3 at raising blood levels of vitamin D.
This article sums up the main differences between vitamin D2 and D3.
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/vitamin-d2-vs-d3
Nice gear in the pic old sot. Do /did you ride motorbikes?
Stay safe as you are in the high risk group.
By the way have you (or Willis for that matter) thought about comparing countries with lockdown vs those without? I think Belarus would be a prime “control” as would Taiwan.
I used to ride a Ducati 996SS, an Aprilia RSV Mille, a Suzuki GSXR1100 streetfighter and a Honda SP2, covering about 40,000 miles a year all over Europe. I miss those days.
In the daily graph, I am tracking Sweden, Taiwan and South Korea, none of which has a strict lockdown.
“Among those requiring ventilation, two-thirds die by the end of their critical care and only one-third survive. Therefore, the case fatality rate for closed cases where ventilation was required is more than 67%, compared with only 16% for non-COVID viral pneumonia cases requiring ventilation.”
There is mounting evidence that this could be due to improper ventilator treatment due to misdiagnosis of symptoms. Patients are being blanket protocol treated for ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) with ventilators set to high pressure and low oxygen. However the actual symptoms are presenting more like HAPE (high-altitude pulmonary edema) where the lung muscles work fine but the patient is simply not getting enough oxygen leading to hypoxia. They need low pressure and high oxygen. The improper treatment is causing lung damage and increased deaths while on ventilators.
That is a most interesting observation by Greg S. If he were able to point me to some evidence for his point, I shall see that the proper authorities in the UK are informed.
links from previous posts on WUWT
Dr. Cameron Kyle-Sidell in NYC
https://blogs.webmd.com/public-health/20200407/coronavirus-in-context-do-covid-19-vent-protocols-need-a-second-look
https://www.newswars.com/bombshell-plea-from-nyc-icu-doctor-covid-19-a-condition-of-oxygen-deprivation-not-pneumonia/
A doctor in Italy also has this viewpoint
Dr. Luciano Gattinony
https://www.the-hospitalist.org/hospitalist/article/220301/coronavirus-updates/protocol-driven-covid-19-respiratory-therapy-doing
And it is discussed in this video from 16:00 – 16:52, but he hasn’t seen this type of case.
New research looks at waste water in Massachusetts and finds that corona virus particles indicated that infected people were estimated to be at least 2300 when at the time there were only 446 reported cases in the area.
https://reports.statnews.com/?utm_source=stat&utm_campaign=mainnav&utm_medium=website
What does this do for everyone’s modelling stats.
Dr Annie Bukacek tells how the CDC is falsifying COVID 19 deaths.
https://youtu.be/_ecceh_AYGs
With all due respect to the fine gentleman author,
GIVE people the f’ing cure (malaria cocktail)!!!!!!!!!
All this analysis would be meaningless if the government wasn’t withholding the treatment options.
Secondly. I have not met a non-American that understands the freedom gene in Americans.
‘the freedom gene in Americans’
Umm, we have another term for that, ‘unreasonably selfish’, or simply – greediness.
Spoken like a true self loathing hateful lefty!
The U.S. is the No. 1 most generous country in the world for the last decade
The United States has been the most generous country in the world over the past decade.
That’s the conclusion of the World Giving Index, a ranking that measured how likely residents of 128 countries were to practice acts of generosity.
The index, from the U.K.-based nonprofit Charities Aid Foundation, is based on Gallup’s World Poll surveys of 1.3 million people.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-is-the-most-generous-country-but-americans-say-debt-is-keeping-them-from-giving-more-to-charity-2019-10-18
Now that you have been proven grossly wrong, let’s not see that nonsense again.
Can you really overestimate death toll by orders of magnitude by probably the same flawed models that model climate then when it doesn’t happen declare lock downs successful? This whole thing is absurd. This isn’t the black death for God’s sake.
52 deaths here in Australia, and less than 5% of our ICU beds currently in use for COVID patients, as we now plunge head first into a full blown ‘police state’ situation with authoritarian threats, checkpoints, massive fines, possible detainment and threats of 6 months imprisonment. Helicopters and drones patrol overhead, whilst neighbours dob in neighbours. On the flip side, Australia experienced between 2,500 and 3,000 deaths last year due to the ‘flu’. To a professional scientist who has a risk-based approach entrenched in my working career, this simply does not add up.
We’ve never considered a risk-based approach to this – never ever once thought about quarantining the at-risk demographics. I still see kids walking into nursing homes to see Grandma, yet I can’t go for a drive on my own in my car in the countryside. I can get fined $1,600 for eating a sandwich in a park with 2 other people, yet I can freely go into a hardware warehouse with 150 other people to buy a freakin’ pot plant!
In terms of model of prediction of total US death from Chinese Flu, I hear that lowest prediction is something like 60,000 deaths {and mostly within the next few months]. I don’t believe it. But not going to argue with that or whether it’s could be higher.
Right now US total is 16,691
And 4 States with highest cases is:
Spain which has 15,447
Italy: 18,279
Germany: 2,607
France: 12,210
And the total of these four States is: 48,543
And total population of these 4 states is less than US population,
And it’s near certainty that these 4 State will total within a week
{or More or Less than week] more than 50,000
And it seems to me it’s less certain the US will have more than 60,000.
Scott Adams roughly said, US should find a way get out lockdown
but one has to accept some possibility of more US death occuring after
limiting and/or getting out of lock down, whether it’s 10 or 1000 or some higher number.
And one needs plans of how this will be done, whether it’s a 1 day, 1 week, or 1 month.
And basis of plan is don’t do anything if it’s going result in the total US being
more than 50,000 US death from Chinese Flu.
So, 50,000 – 16,691 = 33,309 more US deaths.
Now, before US started it’s lockdown, you could have had a same goal- we will take measures to try to deaths to be less than 50,000 and then we could done what did, and this point, we could weigh the measures of lock down vs chance of
preventing more than 33,309 deaths.
So, if you thought removing all US governmental lockdown measure would not
increase the US total deaths by 33,309 then you would remove all lockdown measures in US, tomorrow.
If you had more uncertainty, you wouldn’t, you keep lockdown and over time if it even got worst, then you add more lockdown type stuff.
But it seems one should have different measures in the different states {and we currently do have measure measures in different state. And rather the total of 33,309 we give the number by million: 33,309 / 320 million pop is 104 per million. So depending on population of the State, the number a state must keep the number lower than is millions of State time 104.
So California has population of 39.56 million, times 104 = 4114 death
So California starts measures so that by time it’s completely out lockdown
it will have not added 4114 death in the coming few months.
California current total death is 559 and so by summer it’s total deaths will not
be 4114 + 559 = 4673.
Now, it might make sense not to get anywhere near adding 4114 deaths,
You do things one thinks will only going add as much as 500 within a week and in week it proves you are wrong, you go back to kind of lockdown that you released.
California has 61 deaths yesterday and 61 times 7 days is 427 deaths. And if you think it’s going be higher average over week than 61 per day, say as much as 80 per day, then you don’t remove any kind of lockdown measure.
But maybe in week’s time, it looks like it’s going to less than 500 in week.
But one should not think it free to keep lockdown down forever and some point in time one has to try things to get out of lockdown, and governors {politicans} should realize the public will judge how do, with benefit of hindsight, ie, “You left the lockdown remain for too long.” AND there will be stats which prove you caused additional deaths, because left the lockdown remain for too long.
A good measure of deaths in near term number of patients in critical condition- lockdown or no lockdown will not change outcome in near term.
And what is related to lockdown or no lockdown is “new cases” but there will be a lag to any uptick because changes in lockdown, but should be quite apparent within 1 week time.
So example of releasing a lock down measure may be to start school up again. and first week could have 1/2 classes, so school kid goes to school 2 1/2 days of the week and that might last for say 2 weeks before deciding to have 5 days a week.
And large part school is getting homework and gearing up to finish the school year.
But if gets worst in coming week and looks like it’s going to higher than 50,000 deaths in total, then one should added more lockdown type stuff, particularly where it’s looking the worst.
From a guest commentary by Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt in the Swiss newspaper Mittelländische about the comparison of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza:
“The pure statistically view on this pandemic is immoral. You have to ask people at the front lines.
None of my colleagues – of course myself included – and none of the health caretaker staff has memories that in the last 30 or 40 years we have faced a situation in that
1. whole hospitals were filled with patients who had all the same diagnose
2. whole intensive care stations where filled with patients who had all the same diagnose
3. 25-30% of the health care staff acquire the same disease as the patients they are taking care of
4. there were not enough ventilators
5. there was need for patient selection not out of medical reasons but just because out of their sheer numbers and lack of equipment
6. all severe affected patients shared the same – a uniform – number of symptoms
7. the cause of death of patients who died in intensive care was all the same
8. the supply of drugs and medical equipment is running low”
https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/07/covid-19-eine-zwischenbilanz-oder-eine-analyse-der-moral-der-medizinischen-fakten-sowie-der-aktuellen-und-zuk%C3%BCnftigen-politischen-entscheidungen/
This shit is dangerous.
How do you know the cause of the death of people?
Could it be that, as medical professionals commonly do, you are stating wild (and sometimes implausible) guesses as facts, and become convinced by your claims?
The lung CT is a clue
watch
Yeah, but the US isn’t South Korea.
South Korea’s largest and primary ethnic group is Korean, at about 99%, making them one of the most homogenous nations in the world.
https://study.com/academy/lesson/south-korea-ethnic-groups.html
This homogenity alone makes controlling the population a much simpler task.
The US is 61% white, 14% black, 17% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 1% native, and 1% other.
The culture of SK is vastly different, they live in a virtual police state, and they move as one. The US is an enormous area, with many layers of authority and culture. Comparing SK and the US is comparing apples and oranges. South Korea has a population of 51.47 million and an area of 38,691 mi², the US has a population of 327.2 million and an area of 3.797 million mi². This gives a population density of 503 people per square kilometer for SK and 35.77 per square kilometer in the US.
The US is unique. It resembles no other country. It requires unique solutions.