By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Some commenters responding to this daily series providing some information about the Chinese virus have repeated what seems to have become something of a mantra among libertarians who, understandably, dislike the idea of widespread lockdowns, with the loss of freedom and the economic damage that they entail. That mantra is that the Chinese virus is no more infections or no more fatal than flu, and that if we had allowed everyone to acquire immunity by catching the infection and throwing it off all would be well.
Look at today’s graph. Though the downtrend in the daily compound growth rate in total confirmed cases now appears well established, that growth rate is still very high, averaging around 8% globally outside China and occupied Tibet, where the numbers are unreliable.
The red curve shows the case growth rate for the world excluding China. If the 8% daily growth rate were to continue, yesterday’s 1,430,919 confirmed cases (many of which tend to be those serious enough to have come to the authorities’ attention, since testing is still occurring on a tiny scale in most countries) would have risen to nearly 8 million by the end of April, and more than 80 million by the end of May.
It is important, therefore, to ensure that the now well established downtrend is maintained. That is why, for the time being, governments will be keeping lockdowns in place. It would be irresponsible to do otherwise.
Of course, one might legitimately argue that, if the Chinese virus were really no worse than flu, the crippling social and economic cost of lockdowns would be unjustifiable.
But governments cannot afford to make policy on the assumption, perhaps a little too carelessly made by some commenters here, that the virus is no more dangerous and no more infectious than flu.
Here, then, to help us to begin to answer that important question, are some tolerably reliable, real-world data. I am grateful to the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center in London for having made details from its Case Mix Programme Database available. The Case Mix Programme is the national clinical audit of patient outcomes from adult critical care.
The Center has recently issued a report on all confirmed UK cases reported to it up to midday on 3 April, just a few days ago. Critical care units notify the Center as soon as they have admitted any patient with confirmed Chinese virus, together with demographics, initial physiological state, organ support and eventual outcome.
The report concerns 2249 patients, whose mean age at admission was 60 years, compared with 58 years for 4759 patients with non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia, most of them caused by flu, over the three complete years 2017-2019.
Of the 2249 patients, 346 (15%) have died, 344 (15%) have been discharged alive, and 1559 (69%) are still in critical care. The case fatality rate, as a fraction of all closed cases admitted to intensive care, is thus a little over 50%, compared with only 22% for the non-COVID viral pneumonias of the past three years. In each age-group (under 50, 50-69 and 70+), the percentage of patients admitted to critical care with the Chinese virus and subsequently dying in hospital is at least twice the percentage of critical-care patients with other viral pneumonias over the previous three years.
Among those requiring ventilation, two-thirds die by the end of their critical care and only one-third survive. Therefore, the case fatality rate for closed cases where ventilation was required is more than 67%, compared with only 16% for non-COVID viral pneumonia cases requiring ventilation.
Worse, advanced respiratory support for Chinese-virus cases is typically maintained for between 4 and 9 days (average 6 days), while it is not needed at all in non-COVID-19 viral-pneumonia cases, which require only basic respiratory support, and require it only for 2-4 days (average 3 days). The data are similar for cardiovascular support, and for renal support. The Chinese-virus cases tend to require advanced rather than basic support, and to require it for twice as long. And yet, even after all that extra care, the case fatality rate is many times higher than for non-COVID viral pneumonias.
On the assumption that about half of all this year’s critical cases of seasonal viral pneumonia would have occurred by now, and making no allowance for any further exponential growth in Chinese-virus cases in intensive care, and assuming that the summer will stop the virus causing critical cases (an assumption that the authorities, rightly, do not regard themselves as being in any position to make yet), there are approximately three times as many serious Chinese-virus cases than all other viral pneumonias combined, including those caused by flu, in a typical year, and at least twice as many of these will die than with other serious viral pneumonia cases.
Thus, the Chinese virus is six times more fatal than pre-existing viral pneumonias, including those caused by flu.
In the past three years, some 46% of viral-pneumonia cases were female and 54% male. With the Chinese virus, however, only 27% are female and 63% are male.
The report also considers ethnicity. About four-fifths of the UK population is White, but only two-thirds of the critical cases to date are Whites. Blacks, in particular, are three times over-represented in intensive care: they represent one case in seven, but are only one in 20 of the population.
Body mass index was also studied, but the number of cases in the below-normal, normal, overweight, obese and morbidly obese categories is not far out of line with the general population, two-thirds of whom are overweight or obese. Some 72% of intensive-care Chinese-virus cases are overweight or obese.
Interestingly, the number of cases with cardiovascular, respiratory, renal, hepatic, cancerous or immunocompromised comorbidities was quite small. In all these categories, it was less than for the usual viral pneumonias over the past three years.
In the past three years, non-COVID viral pneumonias have put 43% of patients on to ventilators within the first 24 hours. The Chinese virus, however, is worse: it puts 63% on to ventilators within the first 24 hours. Therefore, governments planning hospital capacity for Chinese-virus cases must make extra allowance for the greater demands, both in advanced rather than basic care and in days of treatment, than other viral-pneumonia cases.
The doctor through whom I came upon these figures, who has himself suffered with the Chinese virus and has recovered, is very angry that for political reasons those who understandably dislike lockdowns have been maintaining, contrary to the evidence, that the Chinese virus is “no worse than flu”.
Be in no doubt. This disease is a lot worse than flu. It puts more people into intensive care, where they require costlier and more advanced treatment, where they will be in intensive care for twice the time required by other viral pneumonia-patients, and where they are more than twice as likely to die as those other patients.
So don’t dismiss it lightly. Not any more. Wash hands often. Wear full-face masks when out of doors or away from home. Take Vitamin D3 daily. Be safe.
CV-19 UK’s today’s (Thursday) update:
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/UK-COVID-19.htm
Neil “Michael Mann” Ferguson-
“Take Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London — arguably the single most influential person in the world right now: it was on the basis of his doomsday report that both Prime Minister Boris Johnson and President Trump were frightened, against their liberty-leaning instincts, into instituting the lockdowns which are killing jobs, businesses and the economy.
Ferguson’s predictions of mass deaths — 500,000 in Britain alone — would be huge if they came true.
But it has since emerged that Ferguson has a track record of getting things spectacularly wrong. For example, his recommended response to the UK’s 2001 Foot and Mouth epidemic is now widely recognised as having led to the needless slaughter of millions of animals. (What’s the word for such an unnecessarily zealous response? Oh yes. ‘Overreaction’)
His modelling has been described by critics as ‘not fit for purpose.’ Worse — a breach of the most basic scientific etiquette — he has been reluctant to share the code which he used to model his doomsday conclusions”
Thank you! I am so sick of hearing this bug is just another flu. The only way one can say it is just like flu is to assume with flu most of the herd has some immunity so when the flu hits, most of us don’t end up in the ICU because our immune systems have encountered this big before. Maybe, if this coronavirus had swept through the population over and over again each year and a large chunk of the population was immune, we would have stats similar to flu. However for now, being an entirely new virus our immune systems have not encountered before, it is certainly not just flu. People who say that are being irresponsible.
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is of no use at the point except perhaps in a few place with wide testing. Agreed its worse than the flu but on the order of 1-2.5x. The other issue when comparing is the flu start with vaccinations of 20% of people which limits the spread. Europe is probably over 20% immune now on average and likely higher, so you can start to treat it like a flu unless you are high risk. IFR is certainly <0.20% heavily weighted above 65 years old.
I can't stress this enough; number of confirmed cases is not relevant. Stop looking at it and using it for any analysis until the sample is massive – such behavior cause this lockdown. It only guides to how likely you are to die if you have serious symptoms, NOT if you get infected. Big, big difference.
We are close to herd immunity (~60%) in Europe, and the greater NY area. Let it spread but limit the speed with minor measures, mostly gatherings over 30 people, lockdown the high risk and get herd immunity by mid summer..
BUT FROM WHAT ARE THEY DYING?
Thank you for the analysis. But one glaring error in your analysis is using “corona death” as one of your data points. Governments world wide have changed the way in which we determine cause of death. One can now merely be a carrier (no cough or fever) while dying from other illnesses such as lung disease, cancer, etc. In the US, our CDC has now demanded not only carriers but anyone “presumed” to be a carrier (i.e. no test needed). Dr. Bhakdi, the most cited disease specialist in the history of Germany, pleads how wrong this is. It is not scientific and goes against all prior precedent. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MARVdS-pHdQ. An article in US explains the “boost” in numbers. https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/03/change-to-death-certificates-could-boost-covid19-counts
Thanks for that clear summary. Six times worth sounds about right.
World renowned disease scientist, Dr. John Ionnidis, believes we have three excellent case studies. The do show this virus to be similar to influenza in mortality rates. They are The Diamond Princess, Iceland, and Vo’, Italy. He explains in detail starting here https://youtu.be/G3xEOcJ3YUw?t=103.
You are still citing the number of confirmed cases as though they tell us anything except how many are being tested. This is perpetuating misinformation about the spread of the virus.
Many doctors have questioned whether people are being put too quickly onto ventilation, which is a brutal form of intervention that it is feared may do more harm than good.
Almost no one has said it is no worse than flu. Many specialists have said it is not much worse than flu, or like a bad flu. The point is not that it is not a serious illness that is killing people, but that it is not so much worse than what goes around some years to justify such a stupendously costly response – a response that itself is killing people.
It is wrong to accuse people who disagree with you of being politically or ideologically motivated. You should engage with their argument and not make assumptions about their motives. Here is a selection of specialists and medics who oppose lockdowns as a response to this virus:
– Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, a world renowned expert in medical microbiology, says blaming the new coronavirus alone for deaths is „wrong“ and „dangerously misleading“, as there are other more important factors at play, notably pre-existing health conditions and poor air quality in Chinese and Northern Italian cities. Professor Bhakdi describes the currently discussed or imposed measures as „grotesque“, „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“ that will shorten the lifespan of the elderly and should not be accepted by society.
– Pietro Vernazza, a Swiss infectious disease specialist, argues that many of the imposed measures are not based on science and should be reversed. According to Vernazza, mass testing makes no sense because 90% of the population will see no symptoms, and lockdowns and closing schools are even „counterproductive“. He recommends protecting only risk groups while keeping the economy and society at large undisturbed.
– The President of the World Doctors Federation, Frank Ulrich Montgomery, argues that lockdown measures as in Italy are „unreasonable“ and „counterproductive“ and should be reversed.
– German Professor Karin Moelling, former Chair of Medical Virology at the University of Zurich, stated in an interview that Covid19 is „no killer virus“ and that „panic must end“.
– German immunologist and toxicologist, Professor Stefan Hockertz, explains in a radio interview that Covid19 is no more dangerous than influenza (the flu), but that it is simply observed much more closely. More dangerous than the virus is the fear and panic created by the media and the „authoritarian reaction“ of many governments. Professor Hockertz also notes that most so-called „corona deaths“ have in fact died of other causes while also testing positive for coronaviruses. Hockertz believes that up to ten times more people than reported already had Covid19 but noticed nothing or very little.
– The Argentinean virologist and biochemist Pablo Goldschmidt explains that Covid19 is no more dangerous than a bad cold or the flu. It is even possible that the Covid19 virus circulated already in earlier years, but wasn’t discovered because no one was looking for it. Dr. Goldschmidt speaks of a „global terror“ created by the media and politics. Every year, he says, three million newborns worldwide and 50,000 adults in the US alone die of pneumonia.
– Professor Martin Exner, head of the Institute for Hygiene at the University of Bonn, explains in an interview why health personnel are currently under pressure, even though there has hardly been any increase in the number of patients in Germany so far: On the one hand, doctors and nurses who have tested positive have to be quarantined and are often hard to replace. On the other hand, nurses from neighbouring countries, who provide an important part of the care, are currently unable to enter the country due to closed borders.
– Using data from the cruise ship Diamond Princess, Stanford Professor John Ioannidis showed that the age-corrected lethality of Covid19 is between 0.025% and 0.625%, i.e. in the range of a strong cold or the flu. Moreover, a Japanese study showed that of all the test-positive passengers, and despite the high average age, 48% remained completely symptom-free; even among the 80-89 year olds 48% remained symptom-free, while among the 70 to 79 year olds it was an astounding 60% that developed no symptoms at all. This again raises the question whether the pre-existing diseases are not perhaps a more important factor than the virus itself. The Italian example has shown that 99% of test-positive deaths had one or more pre-existing conditions, and even among these, only 12% of the death certificates mentioned Covid19 as a causal factor.
– The renowned Italian virologist Giulio Tarro argues that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.
– German Virology professor Dr. Carsten Scheller from the University of Würzburg explains in a podcast that Covid19 is definitely comparable with influenza and has so far even led to fewer deaths. Professor Scheller suspects that the exponential curves often presented in the media have more to do with the increasing number of tests than with an unusual spread of the virus itself.
– The two Stanford professors of medicine, Dr. Eran Bendavid and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, explain in an article that the lethality of Covid19 is overestimated by several orders of magnitude and is probably even in Italy only at 0.01% to 0.06% and thus below that of influenza. The reason for this overestimation is the greatly underestimated number of people already infected (without symptoms). As an example, the fully tested Italian community of Vo is mentioned, which showed 50 to 75% symptom-free test-positive persons.
– A new study by the University of Oxford concludes that Covid19 may already have existed in the UK since January 2020 and that half of the population may already be immunised, with most people experiencing no or only mild symptoms. This would mean that only one in a thousand people would need to be hospitalised for Covid19. (Study)
– Professor Gérard Krause, head of the Department of Epidemiology at the German Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, warns on German public television ZDF that the anti-corona measures „could lead to more deaths than the virus itself„.
– The director of the University Medical Center Hamburg, Dr. Ansgar Lohse, demands a quick end to curfews and contact bans. He argues that more people should be infected with corona. Kitas and schools should be reopened as soon as possible so that children and their parents can become immune through infection with the corona virus. The continuation of the strict measures would lead to an economic crisis, which would also cost lives, said the physician.
– Professor Martin Haditsch, specialist in microbiology, virology and infection epidemiology, sharply criticises the Covid19 measures. These are „completely unfounded“ and would „trample on sound judgment and ethical principles“.
– Professor John Oxford of Queen Mary University London, one of the world’s leading virologists and influenza specialists, comes to the following conclusion regarding Covid19: „Personally, I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!“
– In a 40-minute interview, the internationally renowned epidemiology professor Knut Wittkowski from New York explains that the measures taken on Covid19 are all counterproductive. Instead of „social distancing“, school closures, „lock down“, mouth masks, mass tests and vaccinations, life must continue as undisturbed as possible and immunity must be built up in the population as quickly as possible. According to all findings to date, Covid-19 is no more dangerous than previous influenza epidemics. Isolation now would only cause a „second wave“ later.
– Dr. Andreas Sönnichsen, head of the Department of General and Family Medicine at the Medical University of Vienna and chairman of the Network for Evidence-Based Medicine, considers the measures imposed so far to be „insane“. The whole state is being paralysed just to „protect the few it could affect“.
– Professor Klaus Püschel, head of forensic medicine in Hamburg, explains about Covid19: „This virus influences our lives in a completely excessive way. This is disproportionate to the danger posed by the virus. And the astronomical economic damage now being caused is not commensurate with the danger posed by the virus. I am convinced that the Corona mortality rate will not even show up as a peak in annual mortality.“ In Hamburg, for example, „not a single person who was not previously ill“ had died of the virus: „All those we have examined so far had cancer, a chronic lung disease, were heavy smokers or severely obese, suffered from diabetes or had a cardiovascular disease. The virus was the last straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak. „Covid-19 is a fatal disease only in exceptional cases, but in most cases it is a predominantly harmless viral infection.“
If it is worse than the seasonal flu we should expect at least 3,177,204 deaths as that was the toll from the seasonal flu in 2018. The world did not shut down. Now can someone please tell me just why the current death rate demands that which was not done in any other year?
This is excellent data and much needed.
Some of these questions regarding the particulars have not been addressed anyplace else I have seen, and I have looked plenty.
So thank you Mr. Monckton!
I have to spend some more time looking and cross referencing and then comment some more.
can…..you…..believe……this…….s***
“Pope Francis said he believes the Chinese coronavirus pandemic is “certainly nature’s response” to humanity’s failure to address the “partial catastrophes” wrought by human-induced climate change.”
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/09/pope-francis-says-pandemic-is-natures-response-to-human-inaction-over-climate-change/
None of the numbers are reliable now that authorities, including the CDC, have admitted that they are falsely recording deaths as from coronavirus when they are actually people infected with the virus but who died from heart disease or pneumonia. The numbers are made even more worthless by the fact that different countries have different methods of recording deaths. Italy has completely reversed it’s method and now says that only about 12% of previously recorded deaths were actually down to the virus.
Most interesting.
Can I request you change the colours in your graph please. Some colours are very similar and difficult to distinguish.
Perhaps 7 solid lines and 7 dotted lines, so 7 colours in total?
‘More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.’
‘The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.’
Instituto Superiore Di Sanita 17 March 2020
That is pretty much bang on natural mortality.
No, it isn’t like ‘Flu’ at all; it much more closely resembles other coronaviruses causing the common cold.
WHERE IS AMERICA HIDING THE BODIES?
Stay with me here. We often here that CCP is “covering up” the amount of dead. But I have a question for you people who are much smarter than me. So, China had first case Nov. 17, 2019, they then locked down Wuhan Jan. 23. By the end of Feb, they had nearly 2,900 dead. (3 months from 1st case) In America, first case in WA was Jan. 21. Most of America locked down mid-March (months from 1st case). In America, we have around 13,000 deaths (close to 3 months from first case).
Wuhan: With a population of 11,000,000, .00026 of their total population died (2,900/11M).
American: Using .00026, we should have nearly 85,800 should be dead.
And I’ve read the CCP may have had up to 100,000 die. If that is the case, we should have 3,000,000 dead
We are boosting deaths be redefining “cause of death”. Even with that, we’re nowhere close to 85,800 and certainly not 3,000,000. So, where is America hiding the bodies?
Missing in the above is sensitivity to ACE-2 proclivities, smoking, and effect of age. But overall, conclusion that this virus is MUCH more fatal than normal pneumonia is important for all to know.
My sister-in-law has been on a ventilator for nearly 3 weeks and has difficulty in keeping her O2 saturation up. Anecdotal information is that Covid-19 attacks Heme in the blood, reducing one’s ability to move oxygen (from the deteriorating lungs) to other organs.
The fact that the USA defense stockpile of N95 masks was allowed to deplete after N1H1 and not rebuilt will obviously be part of the Lessons Learned from this disaster.
This is a terrific summary. The ICNARC report can be downloaded from this page:
https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/04/04/Report-On-2249-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19
We urgently require community immunity testing on a population basis. Something similar to political polling using a representative sample from a defined geographical area. From this, we can calculate:
– the true prevalence of past Covid-19 infection
– the relationship between true prevalence and confirmed cases; hospital admission rate; ITU rate and death
If it turns out that a majority of Londoners are already infected and we are not close to ventilator/ O2/ staff capacity, then the economic lockdown must be ended.
Yes, I too found the ICNARC report (via the Worldometers page for the UK). This article gives a very accurate and concise summary of that document. Thank you, Christopher. This bug is very definitely not flu; the radically different profiles of the two when broken down by ethnicity proves that beyond doubt.
BTW, the ICNARC document is here: https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/76a7364b-4b76-ea11-9124-00505601089b.
Is it possible the use of ventilators is making the situation worse for ill patients?
https://apnews.com/8ccd325c2be9bf454c2128dcb7bd616d
This is great.
Whats the stats for Africa?
The annual flu jab in the UK has saved many lives over the years on years. Many elderly folk are alive now because of it but as such have lived to be at the mercy of Covid.
Then again wearing motor helmets outdoors,as the author seems to suggest by example, just for protection seems pathological in itself. It won’t filter out that much as the air one inhales still would have the microscopical “drops” potentially.
There’s no reason to assume that social distancing without masks, outdoors, would elevate any risk, statistically at least. The numbers quickly become meaningless here.
In transport, offices and occupations which require close contact: there’s a case. The rest if panic induced control mania, IMO.
It would be interesting to see what death from other diseases has been during the same period.
One good thing that has come out of this crisis is that it certainly makes it easy to find the flat earthers and dismiss them.
I think anyone who says this is nothing more than a flu should be infected with first the seasonal flu strain, let them recover, then infect them with COVID-19.
You know, so they can experience science first hand…
“The initial results are excellent so that the admissions in the intensive care unit have been reduced, with shortened hospital stays and radiological and clinical responses that I would dare to define as spectacular. We believe that COVID therapy for pneumonia is corticosteroid therapy at the onset of pneumonia at the stage that we consider mild, particularly in febrile patients from the first week and with analytical abnormalities. Initiating anti-inflammatory therapy prior to the development of severe pneumonia, covering the period of time in which the patient can worsen corticosteroid therapy”
“The OMS made a contraindicated mistake in the use of corticosteroids in patients with COVID infection 19. In this way, this therapy is postponed until a very serious situation in which the therapy is much less effective. Soon we will have data on all this and we will disseminate it but we will disseminate this information inviting you to try this treatment on the patients that I anticipate. Infection Does Not Kill Them Kills The Inflammatory Reaction To Macrophage Activated Infection”
https://www.elperiodicodeaqui.com/epda-noticias/el-hospital-doctor-peset-de-valencia-aplica–con-mucho-exito–en-pacientes-con-coronavirus-una-terapia-antiinflamatoria-con-corticoides/207638