Reposted from The Cliff Mass Weather Blog
To start on a positive note, the Cherry Blossoms are in full bloom on the UW Campus, with the visual effect enhanced by the beautiful, sunny weather. (I should note that the UW is not encouraging folks to visit the blosssoms in person).
There is a lot of interest in the temperature/coronavirus relationship and what the weather forecasts suggest.
During the past several weeks there have been several papers submitted (but not yet reviewed) suggesting that coronavirus flourishes for daily mean temperatures roughly from 32F to 55F. Warmer than that, the virus has problems.
The temperature map for the past month suggests that the only area of the U.S. that has been at sufficiently warm (14C–57F or more) to slow up the virus was the southeast U.S. (see below).
Unfortunately, the latest forecasts do not offer warm-temperature virus relief for much of the country during the next week. Let me show that by presenting the 11 AM PDT temperatures for the next few days. Look for the blue, yellow, orange and red colors for virus-poor conditions.
Saturday morning: SE U.S. is good. Not so good for the NW and NE.
Monday–same thing, but improved (warm) condition in most of Texas.
By Wednesday, warmer temperatures are over the SE, the central plains, and up into the Carolinas.
Fast forwarding to next Sunday (March 29th), little improvement for the NW and NE.
The bottom line is that mother nature is not giving most of us the warm temperatures needed to suppress the virus But April is not far away.
And if you want some good news, the coronavirus testing at the University of Washington (Med School’s Virology department) is now finding a stabilization in the number of positive evaluations (see graphic below). Another good piece of news is that the overwhelming number of tests are negative (folks are getting sick from the flu and other illnesses).
UW Virology have been extreme heroes during this event, providing COVID-19 testing when CDC was failing, as well as revving up to do thousands of tests per day. Makes one proud to be a husky. Check out their web site—and consider providing a donation for their excellent work.
Anecdotal: Late-march night temperatures at my studio in Sonoran Desert in California two hours east of Los Angeles have persisted low for several weeks, continue surprisingly chilly. In the high 40s.
Off-topic: Cherry blossoms are wonderful, but here is one of the optimistic hopes for humanity, Alma Deutscher, in the apricot orchards of Vienna.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR3T9OjoxSM
Alma is an important composer in this world, don’t let her age fool you. She has the true joy of life in her heart and mind.
UW?
More acronym speak that only makes sense to insiders?
I have cherry trees that I planted on my property, both flowering and fruiting cherries; along with the choke cherries so common in Virginia.
Most are protected from the prevailing wind.
None of them have flowered.
There is a bird seeded cherry tree across the street on top of a small hill that is fully exposed to all day sunlight.
It has been flowering for two days now.
It is all about the sunlight, not the temperature.
UW = University of Washington
(Seattle)
Thanks Willis
Interesting the increased testing is not revealing an numerically increasing rate of infection. I hope the ‘curve has been crushed’ for the sake of those people.
Well done University of Washington for making the data available.
We may need shutdown every couple of months for 2 weeks to keep virus in check. Let it grow then knock it down to lower levels and then repeat. We simply cannot shutdown economy forever or there will be mass unemployment, city budgets will fail as tax base dries up. There has to be determined a reasonable caseload that can be handled.
Vitamin D can be taken in pill form no matter what the temp is.
If the sun comes out go for a walk.
I had a great deal of trouble distinguishing the different colors in the test results graphic — so I Photoshoped it with alternate colors. See it here:
The positive tests are the brownish bars at the bottoms of the columns with inconclusive tests shown as bright green.