Guest “counter-hyping” by David Middleton
The stock market plunge of the past few days has largely been triggered by the rather modest spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) out of China. Unfortunately this serious epidemic has been hyped by the media and politicians, particularly Democrats. The purpose of the hyping clearly has been to accomplish what neither Hillary Clinton, Robert Mueller or Adam Schiff could do…
5 Ways a Coronavirus Pandemic Could Change the 2020 Election
By Eric LevitzDonald Trump is not known for downplaying foreign threats. And yet, as the Wuhan coronavirus triggered quarantines throughout China, moved into South Korea, Italy, the United States, and at least 36 other countries — while throttling global supply chains and depressing foreign markets — the fearmonger-in-chief remained sanguine. At the World Economic Forum in late January, Trump assured the gathered plutocrats that the virus was “under control.” Three weeks, hundreds of deaths, and one giant stock market plunge later, the president’s song remained the same.
“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA,” Trump tweeted Monday. “We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
The source of Trump’s uncharacteristic reluctance to talk up a border-crossing menace to American public safety isn’t hard to discern.
[…]
New York Magazine
After idiotically describing a virus as a “border-crossing menace to American public safety,” Mr. Levitz lays out his list:
- “The pandemic could sicken the economy, thereby sending the Trump presidency to an early grave.”
- “The pandemic could throw a spotlight on the Trump administration’s criminal negligence.”
- “Alternatively, the virus just might deliver Trump a perfectly timed economic boost that all but guarantees his reelection.”
- “The pandemic could lend credence to Trump’s anti-globalist worldview.”
- “When socialism comes to America, it may be wrapped in a respirator mask and carrying tissues.”
Mr. Levitz discounts #3 as “less likely today than it did two weeks ago”… And never explains why. He never actually even tries to explain #4. He expounds at great length how Socialism will save us from President Trump’s recession and criminal negligence. Mr. Levitz has a BA in creative writing and an MA in fiction writing.
The Counter-Hyping of COVID-19
I ran across a great article from Fisher Investments the other day:
Market Analysis
As the Big Stories Churn
Headlines jump from story to story. Reacting to the latest could be an investing mistake.
By Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, 02/21/2020We aren’t even two months into 2020, yet many pundits believe the Wuhan coronavirus will make the global expansion gravely ill. Some have already started slashing market forecasts for the year. Frequent MarketMinder readers likely already know we think fears over the virus’s market impact are overdone. But to us, they are part of a longer-running pattern prevalent throughout this bull market. As soon as one huge story fades, another pops up—like a less-fun game of Whac-A-Mole. Here is a look back at some of the fleeting frenzies that came and went over the past 11 years. In our view, the collection tells a simple tale: Investors are better off tuning out the noise rather than reacting to The Next Big Story.
We don’t have to go back far to see this Big Story headline churn. US-Iran tensions dominated headlines at 2020’s start, sparking World War III warnings. Those fears virtually vanished by mid-January, just in time for coverage to flip to the coronavirus. Similarly, while global equities enjoyed their best year in a decade in 2019, the year featured plenty of Big Stories—some scary-ish, others supposedly monumental for investors.
Remember when the US yield curve flattened—and then inverted—last summer, prompting recession forecasts that didn’t come to fruition? When the yield curve “un-inverted” in early October, far fewer trumpeted the news. Earlier in 2019, Vermont Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders introduced Medicare for All legislation—gobbling up news coverage. A few other Democratic candidates backed it, too. Health Care stocks reacted negatively to fears of quasi-nationalization in the short term, plunging almost -5% in three days.[i] But that hype passed. Health Care ended the year strong, trailing only Technology in Q4. You could say the same of value stocks’ brief burst of outperformance in September. Headlines were sure it was a huge rotation after years of value lagging. It came and went in a month’s time.
Headlines didn’t hype only scary stories. They also heralded allegedly paradigm-shifting developments. One huge social media company—backed by a number of prominent financial services and payment providers—unveiled plans to release a cryptocurrency named for an astrological sign that isn’t Gemini and rhymes with shmeebra. Some predicted this foray would make digital currencies mainstream, with regulators reportedly worried of potential fallout. Congresspeople got worried and asked incomprehensible questions. Since that announcement, the hype has evaporated and many partners have quietly dropped their support.
You can find myriad examples of Big Stories that were supposed to either impact stock returns or represent a landmark market shift. Instead of altering the investing landscape, they simply fell out of the news cycle as headlines churned onto something else.
[…]
Fisher Investments
The article details the litany of media-hyped crises that were sure to crater the bull market, trigger a recession and enable Comrade Bernie Sanders to finally Make America the Soviet Union Again. None of these CNN/WaPo/MSLSD/NYT fantasies had any legs. The market experienced short-term sell-offs and then marched on.
Market Volatility
Thoughts on a Rocky Monday
Monday’s volatility isn’t a call to action, in our view.
By Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, 02/24/2020US and global stocks started this week on a sour note, as fears over the coronavirus’s spread into South Korea and Italy shook sentiment. The S&P 500 finished Monday down -3.4%, with most overseas markets similarly weak.[i] Coverage of the disease leads virtually every financial news website, which are also teeming with analyses from economists, politicians, analysts and pundits. Generally, their take is negative, operating on the assumption markets are just now catching on to the coronavirus’s potential fallout—and arguing more downside lies ahead. But this rocky Monday doesn’t change our view: Sentiment swings can always hit stocks short term, but the coronavirus is highly unlikely to upend this bull market.
First, some perspective seems in order. While Monday’s swings were large, it is worth remembering that the S&P 500 stood at all-time highs last Wednesday.[ii] Global stocks? Eight trading days ago (February 12).[iii] Since their respective high-water marks, US and world stocks are down a little over -4% each. That is the definition of a short-term dip—of which there have been dozens during the nearly 11-year old bull market that began in March 2009. For example: Last year had two nearly -6% downdrafts (April 30 – June 3 and July 24 – August 15) and one very similar to today’s size in September.[iv] We aren’t suggesting you should anticipate 2019’s hugely positive returns this year, just that even in great years, short-term volatility is normal.
[…]
Fisher Investments
It seems to me that the mainstream lamestream news media have been on a mission to undercut the America’s confidence and faith in itself since the Vietnam War. The Coronavirus hype is very much like the climate change hype, the war with [fill in the blank] hype, the Russia nothing burger hype, the Ukraine nothing burger hype, etc.
Don’t get me wrong, COVID-19 is very serious. It will ultimately kill thousands of people, maybe tens of thousands. It is a dangerous epidemic, if not already a pandemic. But the market’s reaction to it this week has been seriously overblown… And much of the “credit” lies with the lamestream media, who seem to be wishing for a COVID-19 recession.
While the danger is far from over, COVID-19 clearly does appear to have peaked.
Stay Invested, It’s Not Time to Fear the Coronavirus
By Brian Wesbury & Robert Stein
February 25, 2020Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% – the largest daily declines in two years. These drops wiped out all the gains for the year.
Frankly, it’s amazing to us that the market had been so resilient! Maybe it’s because recent history with stocks and viruses is that markets overreact leading to significant buying opportunities along the way. Over a 38-day trading period during the height of the SARS virus back in 2003, the S&P 500 index fell by 12.8%. During the Zika virus, which occurred at the end of 2015 and into 2016 the market fell by 12.9%. There are other examples, but they all passed, and the market recovered and hit new highs.
Will this happen again? Our view is that it is highly probable.
[…]
Much of the pessimism surrounding the virus focuses on the Chinese under-counting the number of infected to save face. However, it’s important to note that a shortage of specialized test kits has caused health officials in many countries to rely on observable symptoms for diagnoses, and because coronavirus mimics the flu and pneumonia in its early stages, it’s also possible that authorities may be over-counting as well.
Instead of looking at it from a total confirmed case perspective, we think the number of total active cases provides a better look into what is happening. This measure takes total confirmed cases and subtracts deaths and recoveries. This gives the total amount of people who have the potential to spread the virus further.
According to Worldometer, which aggregates statistics from health agencies across the world, total active cases peaked about a week ago at 58,747 and have since been declining. Even with all the new cases we are seeing in South Korea, Italy and Iran (where data is suspect). There have been 30,597 cases with an outcome (2,699 deaths and 27,898 recovered). In other words, the total active cases now stand at 49,923, a drop of 15% from the peak on February 17th.
[…]
Real Clear Markets
While vigilance remains essential, hype doesn’t help.
Toning down the 2019-nCoV media hype—and restoring hope
Giuseppe Ippolito
David S Hui
Francine Ntoumi
Markus Maeurer
Alimuddin Zumla
Published:February 12, 2020As the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak has revealed, the world has become increasingly susceptible to the emergence and outbreaks of new and re-emerging infectious diseases that can spread quickly due to the rapid movement of people globally.1 The appearance of a new infectious disease with pandemic potential usually ignites serious cross-cutting media, as well as scientific and political debate.2, 3 The events surrounding the 2019-nCoV are no different, and for the past 5 weeks, 2019-nCoV has captured global media, political, and scientific attention.4, 5
[…]
The balance between providing the information required for appropriate actions in response to risk and providing information that fuels inappropriate actions is delicate. The global media response to 2019-nCoV remains unbalanced, largely due to the continuously evolving developments and, as a result, public perception of risk remains exaggerated.The many unknown factors surrounding the virus are likely to lead to further media hype and aberrant public response. For example, the number of people who travelled to and from Wuhan before travel restrictions and the lockdown were put in place, how many of these individuals were asymptomatic or were incubating the virus, and whether screening and current control measures will be effective, are all unknowns.
As of Feb 10, 37 558 cases were confirmed, and 812 deaths had been reported to the WHO. Outside of China, 307 cases had been detected in 24 countries.6 Therefore, although several hundreds of patients remain in intensive care, the overall hospital fatality rate remains at 2%. Therefore, it is time to reduce the hype and hysteria surrounding the 2019-nCoV epidemic and reduce sensationalisation of new information, especially on social media, where many outlets aim to grab attention from followers. Additionally, the disparity between the strength of language as presented to the media by some researchers and politicians and the inference shared on social media requires more research to determine how content is being relayed on different platforms.
An effective way of putting this outbreak into perspective is to compare it with other respiratory tract infections with epidemic potential. 2019-nCoV appears to fit the same pattern as influenza, with most people recovering and with a low death rate; the people at risk of increased mortality are older in age (>65 years), immunosuppressed, or have comorbid illnesses. There is currently no evidence that 2019-nCoV spreads more rapidly than influenza or has a higher mortality rate.
The media should focus on having altruistic intentions and develop dialogue with the appropriate authorities to protect global health security through effective amiable partnerships. They should highlight vaccine development efforts as well as educational and public health measures that are being put in place to prevent the spread of infection. Although there are many things to still learn regarding how best to respond to disease outbreaks of this nature,7 there are also several positives, such as diagnostics tests being developed within 2 weeks and rolled out globally or the rapid garnering of financial support for vaccine development, which should perhaps be in the headlines, to fuel reassurance rather than fear.
The Lancet
Today’s CDC media briefing presented the facts very well… The media coverage, not so much… “Americans should prepare for coronavirus crisis in U.S., CDC says”… Having just listened to the briefing, I’m fairly certain that the word “crisis” was never used, nor does it appear in the transcript.
This is from the CDC’s most recent situation summary:
Situation in U.S.
Imported cases of COVID-19 in travelers have been detected in the U.S. Person-to-person spread of COVID-19 also has been seen among close contacts of returned travelers from Wuhan, but at this time, this virus is NOT currently spreading in the community in the United States.[…]
Risk Assessment
Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications). The fact that this disease has caused illness, including illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread is concerning. These factors meet two of the criteria of a pandemic. As community spread is detected in more and more countries, the world moves closer toward meeting the third criteria, worldwide spread of the new virus.The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States.
But individual risk is dependent on exposure.
For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at this time, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low.
*Under current circumstances, certain people will have an increased risk of infection, for example healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 and other close contacts of persons with COVID-19. CDC has developed guidance to help in the risk assessment and management of people with potential exposures to COVID-19.
*However, it’s important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic. In that case, the risk assessment would be different.What May Happen
More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.[…]
CDC
The CDC said that they expect to see some community spreading of the disease in the US at some point in time. They didn’t say this:
Top U.S. public health officials said Tuesday that Americans should prepare for the spread of the coronavirus in communities across the country.
NBC News
A community-acquired infection simply means that it can be acquired from a community. Infections among people who did not travel to the Wuhan area or have direct contact with people who acquired it there, are community-acquired infections. The CDC said that they expect that there will be some community spreading of COVID-19 in the US at some point in the future… But that they could not predict when or how severe. They did not say “that Americans should prepare for the spread of the coronavirus in communities across the country.” They said that people should prepare for telecommuting, teleschooling and taking other measures to limit contact with large groups of other people, if possible, in the event there is an outbreak in their community.
Politicizing COVID-19
The hyping and politicization of COVID-19 by Democrats has been particularly disgusting:
Schumer Blasts President Trump For Lack Of Leadership & Lack Of Plan To Address Spread Of Coronavirus
February 24, 2020
Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer today spoke on the Senate floor regarding the Trump administration’s response to the spread of Coronavirus. Below are Senator Schumer’s remarks, which can also be viewed here:The World Health Organization has now reported that there are 79,000 cases of Coronavirus across at least 30 countries, at least 53 confirmed cases here in the United States. As the virus continues to spread, the global economy is already beginning to suffer.
All of the warning lights are flashing bright red. We are staring down a potential pandemic and the administration has no plan. We have a crisis of Coronavirus and President Trump has no plan, no urgency, no understanding of the facts, or how to coordinate a response. We must get a handle on the Coronavirus and make sure the United States is fully prepared to deal with its potentially far-reaching consequences.
But the Trump administration has been asleep at the wheel.
President Trump: Good Morning! There’s a pandemic of Coronavirus, where are you? Where is your plan?
It’s just amazing: as the crisis grows and grows, we hear nothing. Coronavirus testing kits have not been widely distributed to our hospitals and public health labs. President Trump’s State Department overruled the recommendations of the scientists in the CDC and allowed infected passengers from a cruise ship to be flown back into the United States. And, amazingly, at a time when we know that these pandemics can spread, this Administration cut the CDC, the agency in charge of fighting these global viruses, with a senseless 16% cut to its budget!
And my fellow Americans, that’s what they do on all these things: they just cut, and then the president tries to claim credit after we restore the money. He did it in his State of the Union. He was claiming: because of his great work with NIH, we’re curing cancer. He’s cut the NIH every budget, including this one.
It is a disgrace how this man can say one thing and do another, and it’s confounding that it doesn’t catch up with him—with too many Americans and none of my colleagues on the other side of the aisle.
[…]
Senate Democrats
It’s a disgrace that a U.S. Senator could tell so many lies in so few paragraphs, while trying to politicize a serious health issue and potential threat to our economy.
Lie #1
The World Health Organization has now reported that there are 79,000 cases…
Actually the total number of diagnosed cases exceeds 81,000. However, as of this morning, there are 48,170 active cases, about 1,000 less than yesterday. Once a patient recovers or dies, they are no longer an active case. Active cases are declining.
Lie #2
All of the warning lights are flashing bright red. We are staring down a potential pandemic and the administration has no plan.
Maybe if you spent a little more time brushing up on facts, you wouldn’t lie so much. The CDC is part of the “administration”, they have a plan and they are taking action.
Lie #3
There’s a pandemic of Coronavirus, where are you? Where is your plan?
While it may become a pandemic, at this time it is not… And the CDC is coordinating with international, state and local health agencies trying to keep it from becoming one.
Lie #4
It’s just amazing: as the crisis grows and grows, we hear nothing.
Maybe you should have listened to the CDC’s briefing yesterday… You would have heard a lot… But you wouldn’t have heard the word “crisis.”
Lie #5
President Trump’s State Department overruled the recommendations of the scientists in the CDC and allowed infected passengers from a cruise ship to be flown back into the United States.
Schmucky… Those are U.S. citizens. You know, the sort of people you and the president took oaths to protect. A lie of omission is still a lie. Those people are quarantined on U.S. military bases until they recover or we can be reasonably certain they will not develop symptoms.
Lie #6
And, amazingly, at a time when we know that these pandemics can spread, this Administration cut the CDC, the agency in charge of fighting these global viruses, with a senseless 16% cut to its budget!
And? Apart from the Department of Defense, just about every federal agency could have its budget cut by 20% and still be able to perform its legitimate functions. Furthermore, the CDC’s budget wasn’t even cut. This statement is both a lie and a red herring fallacy. In the briefing yesterday, Dr. Messonnier specifically said that the CDC did not lack the resources it needed and the administration is making another $2.5 billion available.
Schmucky, maybe you should read more and flap your gums less…
CDC Outlines Pandemic Plans As Coronavirus Concerns Rise
2020-02-25 Aislinn Antrim, Assistant Editor
The World Health Organization (WHO) has declined to declare the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a pandemic,1 however the CDC is preparing for potential pandemic conditions.2 In addition to the agency’s preparations, the FDA and the White House also announced new initiatives Tuesday to combat the spreading virus.
[…]
“We are still at the stage of containment, but we are already starting to plan for mitigation,” said Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.2
In a CDC press conference Tuesday, Messonnier said she expects to eventually see community spread in the US, meaning cases will begin appearing without a known source of exposure.2 Community spread is already being observed in several other countries outside of China.1
The virus meets 2 of the 3 criteria for a pandemic, Messonnier said. It has caused illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread, but has not yet qualified as a pandemic because it lacks the definition for “worldwide spread.”2
[…]
For now, the CDC is continuing to focus on individuals that have traveled to China or have been in close contact with a patient with COVID-19. By planning for community spread, however, Messonnier said this focus may shift to a more broad population.2
“If that happens, it will be more and more important that the clinicians have a full tool kit,” she said.2
To that aim, the CDC also is working on the diagnostic tests for COVID-19, which had previously been malfunctioning. While Messonnier did not give a specific timeline for the release of new tests, she said they are hoping to roll the tests out “soon.”2
Currently, 12 locations around the country can test samples, as well as the CDC. The CDC has no backlog or delay, Messonnier said.2
[…]
In addition, the White House has requested appropriation of $1.25 billion in emergency funding to continue supporting critical response and preparedness activities, as well as $535 million in emergency supplemental funding to be transferred from Ebola response efforts to the COVID-19 preparedness effort.6
“This funding would support all aspects of the US response, including: public health preparedness and response efforts; public health surveillance, epidemiology, laboratory testing, and quarantining costs; advanced research and development of new vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics; advanced manufacturing enhancements; and the Strategic National Stockpile,” said Russell T. Vought, acting director of the Office of Management and Budget, in a letter to.6
In a tweet, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said the requested funding is overdue and “completely inadequate” to tackle COVID-19.7
Messonnier concluded that while the situation is concerning, legislators, health care professionals, and the public should focus on preparedness and prevention.
“I’m concerned about the situation, [the] CDC is confirmed about the situation, but we are putting our concerns to work preparing,” she said.2
Pharmacy Times
Nancy… How in the hell would you know that the funding was “completely inadequate”? Is it because it doesn’t address climate change and alphabet people?
And now, Comrade Bernie likens COVID-19 to another fake crisis…
Bernie Sanders Likens Coronavirus to Climate Change ‘Crisis’
HANNAH BLEAU 26 Feb 2020
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), during Tuesday evening’s Democrat debate in Charleston, South Carolina, essentially likened the coronavirus outbreak to the climate change “crisis.”
During a brief segment on the coronavirus, Sanders brought the climate change “crisis” into the mix, addressing both with a similar level of urgency.
[…]
Breitbart
Death toll from:
- COVID-19 = 2,771 as of February 26, 2020, 13:55 CST
- Climate Change Crisis… Dean Wormer?
Oh… But the Climartiat statistics say that climate change has killed millions of people, maybe billions…
Name them. The COVID-19 victims all have names.
- COVID-19 is serious problem… But not a crisis.
- Climate change is what climate does… And not a crisis.
Brokerage houses, banks, hedge funds, etc., make money by volume and volatility (via front running, shorting, etc.). They orchestrate moves both up and down and use whatever message available at the time to do so. It is indeed deja vu. The only thing that keeps the system honest (as much as it is) is that there is no honor between thieves. They would just as soon screw other firms as much as you and me.
Same with carbon (sic) trading certificates.
Goldman Sachs and many other financial market operatives were salivating at the prospect of reaping beaucoup greenbacks from transaction fees on government-mandated “trading” of these instruments.
Oh, if only they could have had another 4 years of Obama without those Fannie Many & Freddie Mac distractions!
“We coulda been a contender” 🙁
Can you find any actual evidence to support your paranoia? Or do you just assume that making money is evil, therefore those who are doing it must also be evil.
In this instance, David detailed those who were spreading the false news/panic. Are you implying that the lamestream media and most Democrats are in the employ the financial sector?
Fascinating how trying to make a profit becomes, screwing other firms.
..when many companies believe in a zero sum economy, it isn’t hard to imagine!
But let me ask a probing question–have you ever worked for a Fortune 500 company, especially high enough in the organization that you’re privy to the mindset of those making the executive decisions?
And just what company would that be, since you seem so resolute in your opinion?
Let’s see if you can speak with first-hand knowledge–either way!
Then I’ll counter with my experiences!
And you do have such knowledge?
I’ve worked for many companies, the smallest had 5 employees, up to and including Fortune 100 companies.
Are there bad people in the world? Yes.
Do some of these sometimes work for big companies? Yes
Do some of these sometimes work for small companies? Yes
Is any of this proof that big companies are inherently corrupt and are out to get us? No
I have no doubt that you worked for a big company and had a boss that screwed over. I’m sorry, but that is not proof of anything other than your personal experience.
> Can you find any actual evidence to support your paranoia?
As tip of the ice berg: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal
> Are you implying that the lamestream media and most Democrats are in the employ the financial sector?
FED was invented by Democrats: https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Senate_Passes_the_Federal_Reserve_Act.htm
But who knows, senate.gov could be fake news:
“Everything the State says is a lie, and everything it has it has stolen.”
~ Friedrich Nietzsche
Let me see if I have this right. There was a scandal. Ergo the entire industry, for all time, is proven corrupt and out to get us.
We aren’t talking about the FED.
Yes, government lies, we aren’t talking about the government.
Yeah, not exactly. The big banks have “special” relationships with the government. Goldman may not be Fannie or Freddie but it’s got at least some stench of GSE on it. And there are amazing coincidences between Goldman’s analysis recommendations and what it is actively buying and selling.
I don’t need an “entire industry” to be bad just like I don’t need “every politician” to be corrupt.
It’s not paranoia. There’s honesty and dishonesty and brokers for each.
In my life experiences, I’ve been both blessed and screwed. Fortunately, the blessings outweigh the other and sometimes even the screwing wasn’t that bad.
Getting screwed a few times is hardly proof that an entire industry is inherently corrupt.
I’ve had to deal with bad apples where ever I’ve worked, in companies of all sizes and in all industries.
This is a “correction”. Corrections are driven by mostly by fears, occur periodically, seem to have little cognitive rationale and create huge transfers of wealth. As you note, brokerages make lots of money, the huge investors (i.e., “hedge funds”) that trade in the markets after they close make huge amounts of money and can actually drive the ups and down. Most of the rest of us need to have created a portfolio that can easily survive these unpredictable market corrections, for example, using Morningstar’ “bucket” approach. Search this on the web — if you haven’t thoughtfully applied that strategy, then do nothing since in a few weeks/months levels will be back to where they were before — then apply the strategy if you’ve had funny feeling in you stomach.
“Panics” occur less frequently but have a similar pattern except the drop is above 10% on the first day. Most folks reading this today will suffer through at least one more panic in their lives. See bucket strategy above.
As the article points out, there are forces in the world today which will gladly crash everything in America and the World to rid themselves of Trump. Think about the huge (actually trillions) involved in the climate scam – everything from financing wind, to solar, to grid expansions, to electric cars, carbon trading schemes etc. It’s likely they care little about the political wars other than, as Bloomberg has done, how much it costs them buy political favors and taxpayer funds. Thus, the financial masters join with the Left since they have a common enemy – democratic nationalism. It will get worse this year.
And about this year. Expect all out efforts to be made to crash the American economy prior to November on the belief that every voter is so stupid as to blame Trump. It worked with Obama; the Left will certainly try it again. September, plus or minus. Either park your money or be set for wild rides.
As far as the Wuhan, it’s just this time around convenient excuse for “correction” in a bull market. Oh, and out of all the theories rummaging around on the web, it’s most likely, imho, that China may have engineer the virus or, more likely, promoted it since they’ve used it to hammer all dissent in all cities throughout China. For example, how are all those Hong Kong protests working out today? Don’t be surprised when lots of dissent leaders contract the “deadly” Wuhan…
Then there is the Bloomberg Terminal (one set of others competing for the same trading markets):
All Bloomberg Terminals are leased in two-year cycles (in the late 1990s and early 2000s, three-year contracts were an option), with leases originally based on how many displays were connected to each terminal (this predated the move to Windows-based application). Most Bloomberg setups have between two and six displays. It is available for an annual fee of $20,000 per user ($25,080 per year for the small number of firms that use only one terminal).[3] As of October 2016, there were 325,000 Bloomberg Terminal subscribers worldwide.[4]
That’s more than 6.5 Billion dollars per year just for supporting the trading schemes. No production, no useful service, just one of many ultimate ponzi operations using the “markets” for short term trading profits.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloomberg_Terminal
You assume that the cost of supporting these terminals is zero. I can assure, it is not.
No production? Where do you think these terminals come from? Does a fairy deliver them?
If these Bloomberg terminals provide no services, then why does anyone pay even a penny to lease them? Remember, you’ve already admitted that there are competitors to these terminals.
How is providing a service that people are willing to pay for, and for whom there are competitors equate to a ponzi scheme?
It really is amazing how people get so completely paranoid when the subject of money comes up.
“No production? Where do you think these terminals come from? Does a fairy deliver them?”
I did say “useful services” and should have said “useful production”. The terminals are “manufactured” and provide “services” for the sole purpose (much like millisecond computer programmer trades) of usually very short term profits. Now of course you could probably argue that those profits are spent and therefore provide products and services; but then so would money spent after a bank heist.
Not paranoid, just pointing out, that much like a bank heist, not an efficient use of money. And laws could change all that but corporate political control prevents such from occurring.
I wish I had a big wad of cash that I could invest right now. Though probably Friday at opening bell would be optimum time. This week investors are being herded into a sell-off while the indicators seem to show this will be a four or five month hiccup at worst. Friday will probably be the bottom with the weekend acting as a circuit breaker to clear the trader herd instincts out of the stampede mode.
The worst part is listening to inane reporters speaking of the “irreparable harm” the “pandemic” will do to supply chains. The worst that will happen is some of the single supplier issues will get resolved as executives realize that single supplier is a terrible, awful, very bad idea. It would do us all well to make sure that all our eggs are not in one basket in the future.
Yes, for example, 3M might want to move respiratory mask production from China back to U.S.
A better decision would be to keep the Chinese production, but add plants in a couple of other countries as well.
Perhaps. Chinese firms cheat at almost every opportunity. In some cases, counterfeits are produced in the same plants as real products. Still, the allure of a 1.4 billion market is something.
I had a suit against a Chinese firm and we reached a settlement agreement this past fall just before trial. Come January, they missed a payment and now they are headed chapter 11.
So now every Chinese firm is corrupt.
That sounds so simple but the economies of the world aren’t. Almost all manufacturing is geared towards the “just in time” model for procurement so that minimal capital is tied up in supplies. Single supplier issues flow down the line and branch due to the level of interdependency that has arisen to maximise profits. Blame globalists if you like but that is where we are and it is not that quick to fix.
I agree with you that we should be willing to pay more for a more robust economic model that has redundancy in the supply chains but at this point we don’t and the effects will be severe if the virus takes much longer ( >= another month) for normal production to be resumed in China and also South Korea, assuming things don’t get worse in other countries.
Now is the worst time to engage in BTFD.
Mmmmm……
I don’t think “just-in-time” requires single-sourcing. Especially for those items where the factories are not owned by the user of the item, e.g. surgical masks. Single-sourcing is caused more by economies of scale than anything else. The more you make the cheaper it is to make and this drives users to the cheapest product. The problem is that this is very susceptible to disruptions in the supply chain. It’s because of a short-term view concerning overall costs. Users are forced to find other supply links and the original producer never really recovers market share.
No it doesn’t but it makes the single sourcing issue more critical as the effects of any disruption are felt much more quickly . Neither are necessary for the other but both are used for cost reduction.
Redundancy costs money. Are you willing to pay more for products made by firms that have a more robust supply chain?
The reason why companies try to cut costs where they can, is because we, the consumers, demand low cost and reward the companies that provide it with our business.
Again, multiple sources doesn’t imply redundancy. I must admit that I am more familiar with agriculture production than anything else. A grocer does not use a single source of avocados for instance throughout the whole year. That’s because not all sources produce avocados at the same time during the year. A single source would limit supply during part of the year. Weather conditions vary from year to year as well. Tying yourself to one source would put your operation at the mercy of the vagaries of weather.
The same thing applies to even hard parts such as nuts and bolts. If you get the entirety of your supply from one factory then anything that affects that factory (e.g. floods, fires, etc) directly affects the entirety of your operation – at least as long as you are doing just-in-time inventories. You are much better off using at least two separate factories and weighting the supply share based on incremental cost differences.
re: “The same thing applies to even hard parts such as nuts and bolts. If you get the entirety of your supply from one …”
Consider the case where one is “stuffing a board” (using automated equipment, think: robots) on an automated line that starts with a solder-paste stencil followed by ‘pick and place’ surface mounting (SMD) of components … ALL the components must be in-house, available for “placing” as the last step in the process is the “reflow” oven where the solder paste is heated (on the board) to form the soldered junction between the mounted components and the copper traces on the board.
There were a few times where we were heading ‘deep’ into the month, all the parts/components had not come in yet, and we were DEPENDING on doing this “board stuff” (and followed by electrical/electronic test of RF and uC hardware) to meet ‘billing’ goals for that month! Had we slid (and we were fortunate never to see that) payroll would have been tight and ‘billing’ (for the product) would have shifted to the next month … wondering now how much of this is now happening to ‘production’ in China as a result of cov-19?
Gentlemen
In a somewhat related context to this alternate/multiple supply chain situation …
The explosive rate of buildout in Viet Nam, Bangladesh, India, and – just over the horizon, various Central American countries – of electricity generation will greatly facilitate the implementation of manufacturing in Other-Than-China countries … especially as the adoption of robotics continues to grow.
CCGPs – fueled by cheap LNG and sourced via FSRUs of varying sizes – will lead the way. (Sorry Greta, no one likes eating bugs as a main course).
(Check out the particulars for Proctor and Gamble’s new state-of-the-art factory in West Virginia … Tabler Station. If you are unfamiliar with this emerging paradigm of low cost energy combined with minimal, high skilled staffing and excellent transportation options, well … welcome to the Future).
This current pandemic will be a watershed event of – presently – unrecognized proportions and outcome(s).
History books will record the contemporaneous responses … only to then disregard them in their own familiar, all-too-human fashion.
And so it goes …
The left wing media and their followers are desperate for any news that President Trump may not win reelection.
The Democrats betrayed working Americans and sowed the seeds of their own defeat. They don’t understand that. They have willfully closed their minds to the evidence. Michael Moore, a more honest guy than many folks here would admit, called it. He also called CAGW for the scam it is. WUWT
Until the Democrats finally admit that Republicans aren’t mentally defective, we’re going to see the Democrats suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome or something like it.
Kudos CommieBob. The Left (media and dem’s) have created this petard, and now they are on top of it wondering how the hell they got there. Trump has brought me much joy with his strength, and with how he affected the republican party. When Obama was president, I would say, “neither party represents me”. Now I have clarity. I now enjoy being a republican… I hate to say it, but based on the past 3 plus years worth of actions, we are in a fight between good vs evil, pretty much on every political stance.
It is already technically a pandemic, as affecting two continents. As of now, it’s on every inhabited continent, thanks to a case in Brazil.
It’s highly infectious but of low fatality. That’s a prescription for lots of pain, suffering and death, but not on the scale of the great past pandemics, ie tens of millions killed.
However its economic effects will be severe, thanks to globalism. Pray that the silver lining to the dark cloud of death is the destruction of Chinese Communism. Perhaps too much for which to hope, but perhaps with the example of brave HK protestors before the world, the enslaved, brainwashed 1.4 billion Chinese and ethnic subjects will awake, rise up and lose their chains.
“Lands of the East, awake,
Soon shall your sons be free;
The sleep of ages break,
And rise to liberty.”
Thanks, Fred. What is the date associated with that?…
The Chinese know and understand their history which is full of all kinds of turmoil. They fear instability. They will support the government to an extent that bewilders westerners. The other thing is the Chinese middle class. For them, dire poverty is a living memory. Right now they don’t feel enslaved.
How big is the Chinese middle class? It’s about 400 million. In other words, the Chinese middle class outnumbers the population of the United States and Canada combined.
Mr. Tillman
Today’s (February 27) video from Dr. John Campbell may be his most informative yet, especially regarding detailed reports from both Iran and China from people “on the ground” and directly communicating with Dr. John.
Descriptions of lockdown protocols in the city of Chengdu – population ~16 1/2 million – are particularly edifying.
The view of Iran, tragically, is almost one of potential apocalyptic potentialities.
Not stated in numerous “reporting” of this Covid-19 stuff is just HOW MANY of emerging cases are actually from Iranians travelling abroad. (Not too dissimilar with travelling, infected Italians impacting Tenerife and the cruise ship Meraviglia [6,000 people aboard]).
The countries of Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Canada, even freakin’ Estonia, for crying out loud, now report infected cases that are originally from Iran.
This pandemic is undoubtedly in its early stages, with governments’ responses sure to play a prominent role in how it unfolds.
General prognostications are not optimistic for African countries with large numbers of Chinese workers throughout the continent … with Addis Ababa being a major point of entry.
It’s clear to anyone with any political aptitude that the media as the propaganda unit of the Democrat Party is trying to weaponize COVID-19 against Pres. Trump. These people are despicable, only interested in their own lust for power.
I thought Trump gave a very reassuring press briefing on the CoronaVirus tonight.
The Leftwing Media reporters tried very hard to find something wrong with Trump’s approach but they didn’t lay a glove on him. He gave the appearance of being in complete control of the situation. Just what the public needs to see.
Tom,
+1
Had Trump been more vocal regarding the Wuhan virus up till now, the Democrats would instead be whining about how Trump is trying to panic the country and how he’s taking the spot light away from the people who are doing the work and putting it on himself.
If je had been more vocal about the virus, the declining stock market would be laid at his feet.
It matters not to them what Trump does; it’s wrong.
From the CDC
“CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.”
Again “between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 ” And that 61,000 is the total for the 2018 – 2019 flu season JUST for the USA alone.
Yale New Haven states “Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that are common in both humans and animals that usually cause mild-to-moderate respiratory illnesses. The source of the 2019-nCoV is suspected to be animals in an open air market and is possibly a previously unrecognized bat coronavirus. It appears to cause a more severe illness progressing to pneumonia.”
In other words they are worried because they do not know what it is yet. The CDC is not giving concrete numbers and the MSM is going RABID.
Having been a manager on sit at the TMI incident back in 1979, I can clearly understand how the MSM hypes information, rumor and speculation and whips it into a frenzy causing panic that actually killed more people than the incident did. Point of fact no one died from the incident it self. The MSM reminds me of the Rabies Scare in Hawaii back in 1967/8? After a pet dog was diagnosed with rabies the news and TV hyped it up so much that thousands and thousands of dogs were killed within a matter of days. Eventually a Vet discovered they were not performing the test properly – AFTER all of the pet dogs were killed and dead. Today we have social media and billions of people spreading rumors and misinformation as FACT.
The people that die from this new hype will be the same ones that die, or would have died, from influenza.
According to the CDC, over 80,000 people in the US alone died in 2017 from the flu. Yes, COVID-19 is serious and precautions are necessary, but the hype is possibly more dangerous than the virus itself.
“Brokerage houses, banks, hedge funds, etc., make money by volume and volatility (via front running, shorting, etc.). They orchestrate moves both up and down”…
The majority of share trading is now done by machines using algorithms…but the algorithms, sets of defined rules, are designed by people so include the same biases that people have.
So despite claims that algorithmic trading is based on logic and eliminates emotion it can easily cause higher volatility and cascading gains or losses
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/what-is-algorithmic-trading.aspx
Like all automated systems it requires human supervision.
Yes, algorithms are competing against algorithms and create their own high frequency volatility all by themselves.
A fact recognized by those who write, run and regulate such programs.
Yes … witness the ‘flash crash’ analysis as shown on Zerohedge in past years by a few (companies) who have access to real-time volume and quote/price data.
Please provide a source that has some credibility.
re: “Please provide a source that has some credibility.”
Dummy, re-read my post; This was a write-up/presentation by someone other than ZH BUT appeared on the ZH website. MarkW, this marks a new low for you, really …
In fact, it was Nanex, http://www.nanex.com, whose data ZH showed.
Probably this analysis right here (or another just like it):
http://www.nanex.net/FlashCrashFinal/FlashCrashSummary_II.html
Now, sharpen-up or ship out … normally you’re pretty good, but you’re falling off lately … age related? I hear ya, I’m not there yet, but “Every dog has its day.”
” as shown on Zerohedge ”
I can only go based on what you write.
re: “I can only go based on what you write.”
a) Don’t make rash assumptions
b) Don’t be so quick to jump
c) Read for comprehension
d) It appears I am (slightly?) more widely read than you on some subjects.
e) Expect push back.
f) re: ” as shown on Zerohedge ” the ‘as shown’ should have been a clue there was more to it than ‘idle words’ appearing in an anonymously-authored ZH article.
As shown just means it can be found on zerohedge, it says nothing about whether it was sourced on zerohedge or not. You provided no initial link to prove otherwise.
My reading is a reasonable one. Since I don’t yet know everything about everything, I am quite willing to admit there are people who know things I don’t. Though I do wait for them to demonstrate that fact first.
zerohedge has a reputation for being willing to host all kinds of information that has little basis in reality. Being able to find something on zerohedge is not a mark of excellence.
re: “zerohedge has a reputation for being”
Wide-ranging ‘blanket’ statement applicable to a goodly number of sources today (including most ‘news’ sources); why do you not excoriate others for their use of such sources? Because you thought you had spotted an easy target, that’s why.
Maybe you can learn something here; Not every article posted on ZH is sourced by ZH or reflects ZH’s sympathies, ZH’s attitude or editorial position or ZH’s incompetence and willingness to post clickbait.
SORRY for the long lunch break, in the future I’ll try to do better …
Dummy, re-read my post; This was a write-up/presentation by someone other than ZH
re-read your own post, _Jim (unlike you did to MarkW, I’ll refrain from addressing you with an ad hominem, though one would be well justified in providing one given you’re having already opened that door). No where in your post did you specify any entity other than ZH was behind what was shown *on* ZH, and as you did not provide any links all what has to go on is the word you yourself wrote.
Read for comprehension
Reading for comprehension does not mean “Read _Jim’s mind”. WarkW comprehended the words you wrote *AS YOU WROTE THEM* just fine. If there’s any problem, it’s on you for failing to communicate properly the source the analysis on ZH that you referenced without linking.
I’d say this “marks a new low for you, really”, but from what I recall of past posts it seems about par for the course. and that’s sad, really.
re: “Reading for …”
Why are you getting in the middle of this? You really shouldn’t. You don’t know the history, and you now run a little risk of getting blistered.
Again, why are you getting in the middle of this? Why don’t you address something substantive than this little quibble. Do you like meddling in quibble? Do you want blisters? I’ve got to ask now, because, you’ve inserted yourself. You should know better than to insert yourself in an internecine quibble. Issn’t your time WORTH more than this?
And again, why are you getting in the middle of this?
This is an open forum. You attacked and insulted MarkW for your *own* failures of communication (and all we can go off of is the words *you* wrote, not the words you meant to write). If you can’t stand other people putting their two cents in then perhaps open forums aren’t for you. If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.
And the fact that you threaten “blisters” to those who disagree with you speaks volumes about you, with none of those volumes being anything very good. some self-reflection is in order, but sadly (based on your postings so far) I doubt it’ll happen.
Issn’t (sic) your time WORTH more than this?
Apparently yours isn’t, so why should you expect anyone else’s to be. Lead by example, my friend, lead by example.
re: ” This is … You … ”
Oh look dummy II, I gave you the reason, you’re inserting yourself where you ought not. This in itself is, stupid. More need not be said. I’ll not spell things out further. I suggest in the future you make substantive comments outside of internecine squabbles too.
Don’t you have a ‘sewing circle’* to attend (and gossip, or something)? While you’re at it, look up the word “petty”. Do you see an image you recognize? (Hint: you may have seen it in your BR mirror.)
.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sewing_circle
_Jim February 27, 2020 at 8:56 am
First off Jim When someone uses a source it is customary to provide a link.
MarkW was correct you gave no means by which anyone could investigate your statement.
Instead of being critical of those who question try to improve your game instead.
michael
No, mike/michael.
Do not enter into this fray. You don’t know the history.
EOT
_Jim, why do you get so incensed merely because I don’t credit zerohedge as being a credible source of information?
It’s almost as if my doubt is causing you emotional pain.
So what if not every article on ZH was written by ZH? In your inital post, you gave me no information to indicate whether it was or wasn’t. Heck, you didn’t even give me a link to the article that you were referencing so I could go check for myself.
If you want to be taken credibly yourself, might I suggest you don’t start off by insulting anyone who dares to question your sources.
_Jim, the only history needed is this string of posts.
Why do you get so defensive because someone points out your errors?
re: “errors”
Presumed errors, on your part, Mark, when in fact no such errors occurred.
Let’s review: You don’t know it all, you’ve been shown to not know it all, you proceed to inform me though when it is found you either didn’t know, or were found eventually to be in error. Perhaps these are all due to failing memory or never having been so stridently challenged on ‘facts’ as you know them?
Oh look dummy II,
That’s the best you’ve got? Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
You can’t refute the facts so all you have is insults. And you wonder why nobody attributes any credibility to what you post. Instead of getting bent out of shape, do as mike the morlock suggests and up your game (though given your track record so far, all I expect you’ll do is hurl more insults as you continue to throw your tantrum over people daring to disagree with you – by all means do continue, you’re melt down is too funny).
My nephew handles a lot of the program trading for the Citadel.
When I see him I say, “Up 500, down 500!” And he just laughs.
You can figure out of the 2,000 point drop on the market over the last two days, that about half of that trading was not done by human beings selling their stocks, but by computers that are trying to guess the trend of the market and when they think they have the trend, then they pile on.
I don’t personally like program trading. I think it distorts the markets, exaggerating all the ups and downs.
Yes, trading is already mostly decrabonized.
Climate science needs to be decraponized.
Yeah, best to be careful when writing about this outbreak…
First of all, identified cases is not the same as actually infected. It is very likely there are far more unidentified cases then identified. This is because many cases are very mild – just like when a strain of Flu spreads many people never even realize they caught it. This is also why I do not believe it will be “contained”. I never thought it would be, given the R0 and incubation period. Containing this would be a miracle. It we manage to contain it at the airports (I doubt it) then it will come over our porous border.
Second, experts seem to be assuming this is the first outbreak of this virus. In reality it may have spread in the past and no one identified it. This would mean some, maybe many people will have a immune response that prevents it from ever becoming serious to them. If this hypothetical former outbreak were just regional (say in China) then the data coming from China will be very skewed. We need to be careful about assuming all countries will experience this disease just like China did. I am very hopeful for example that the U.S. will see a much lower death rate due to access to better medical facilities.
I personally believe this outbreak will be like a serious outbreak of the Flu, it there is a good chance it will die back as summer approaches. This is just my best guess…no one actually knows how this virus will behave.
If it continues to spread, there are going to be some serious bottlenecks in production as people stay home in communities and possibly in entire regions. This is what the market is reacting to – a possibility in the fall of production. It will be temporary, not a long term problem, but economies are complex and hard to predict, so a short term problem could lead to a different long term problem due to how people react. Most media outlets need to be ignored – really – they are terrible sources for common sense knowledge.
There is nothing novel about this virus. It is mainly killing those with underlying medical conditions – not outright killing people but instead making them more susceptible to other things. One factor that WOULD make this more deadly is the presence of antibiotic resistant bacteria, say in hospitals. Countries that have been careless with the use of antibiotics are going to face a higher risk of death from resistant bacteria. I hope that doesn’t come to pass.
Healthy people have little to worry about other than the possibility of another nasty cold. People are terrible at assigning and understanding risk – this is a low risk to most people – other than the panic it could cause. You cannot stop it, and it does nothing good to worry about it. Wash your hands a lot, use common sense, and this will pass.
Medical bodies/organisations etc are not that stupid nor incompetent. The nucleic acid of this virus is unique as are the associated anti-bodies generated in response. Both would have been detected in the past few years if this was a low effect community virus and given how infectious it is, there is no way it could not be a community virus if had ever spread in the past.
And think of your parents, grandparents and other of their generations. Many of them have the same preconditions as those with the highest mortality rate so far. But hey, it could just remove that issue of underfunded pension funds, right?
I am really surprised at some of the comments that I have read here–I used to believe that that WUWT was more associated with people that have an open mind, that do not let themselves be guided by foolish politics but by hard numbers and science. This place is starting to sound like a white nationalist heaven more than a place for scientific-minded people (and those of us who care about absorbing some of that knowledge). I can’t help to agree with Analitik here, specially with the callousness of saying that “only” the old and sick will die. So what is it–goodbye boomers?!? The facts are (if you people even care about facts anymore!) That there are a lot of people in this country and other countries that fall into the “old” and “sick” category that will be sorely missed if this virus keeps spreading like it has so far.
Yet another wacky conspiracy theory.
It is simply that US Democrats are deranged. A mental state of incoherent, illogical babble, where truth, half-truths, and lies blur into one form from their mouths.
TDS afflicted democrats cannot admit truths or facts that support President Trump.
TDS Democrats have signed onto an insanity called The Resistance. In The Resistance to everything Trump does, it must be labeled as wrong, even if it is as correct as can be determined with current, in-hand information.
With TDS, Monday morning quarterbacking (critiquing after the history is known) is not only allowed, it is encouraged if it a narrative can be spun against Trump. And in TDS, the use of pretzel logic and false assumptions is sanctioned with abandon.
Do you have TDS Don?
Unfortunately both left and right are pretty deranged these days. The whole world doesn’t revolve around Trump though, whether you love him or hate him. For those people who have been watching the financial markets these past few months, the Dow’s drop is no surprise. It’s too bad it’s going to be blamed on a disease.
I run a Trust as a fiduciary. I completely divested the trust from equity market risk 2 months ago: 1/2 in December 2019, 1/2 in January to spread out the cap gains to 2 tax years, and allow me to sleep at night with the gains of the past year booked.
Not that I saw COVID-19 coming, no one could. But the market was historically high. Time to re-group.
COVID-19 “may” be a Black Swan event. We won’t know for at least 6 months, maybe a year.
But this COVID-19 will likely pass as a worry by May. My guess is by August, no one will remember it in the markets.
I dunno…Trump was greeted by a cricket stadium full of ~125,000 Indian fans several days ago!
Tell me the last time a foreign dignitary received that level of attention anywhere in the world!
I’d say the earth revolves around Trump more than any contemporary man!
And you’re not suggesting that the stock market’s drop right after shrill criticism by the Democrats of Trump’s handling of the “pandemic” (their description, naturally) was merely coincidental, are you??
I think the COVOID-19 related market drop is temporary.
“I’d say the earth revolves around Trump more than any contemporary man!”
Good point, Rocky. Every world leader is paying attention to what Trump is doing. Guaranteed.
If those world leaders were smart they would be emulating Trump.
“And you’re not suggesting that the stock market’s drop right after shrill criticism by the Democrats of Trump’s handling of the ‘pandemic’ (their description, naturally) was merely coincidental, are you??”
Well yeah, it has nothing to do with what Democrats say. Or do you suggest their words have a magic power Republican words do not?
The description of pandemic is not coming from Democrats. It’s coming from doctors and it’s obviously true. The disease has spread far beyond China. Individuals without symptoms are spreading the disease. We can’t stop what we can’t see. There is no practical way to stop its spread outside of shutting down public interaction. That means shutting down the system. The stock market is reacting to that. But it was on the precipice anyway. The virus is a trigger. The gun was already loaded.
It could be that the market will recover in a few weeks. It may turn out that the disease is not nearly as dangerous as some think. We just don’t know at this point. But the overpriced stock market is going to go bear-ish sometime in the near future regardless of the outcome of this pandemic.
Don, anyone who is describing this as having already reached pandemic levels is either completely disconnected from reality or has an ulterior motive.
In your case, both is not outside the realm of possibility.
Words have power, that’s been recognized for as long as there has been speech. Why do you assume otherwise? It’s also widely recognized that it’s easier to get people to panic, then it is to calm them back down. Why are you working so hard to ignore basic reality?
Those words are not coming from all doctors, just a small few.
Got any evidence to support your claim?
Disagreeing with the lunatics on the left is not evidence of being deranged.
“Got any evidence to support your claim?”
Evidence is all over the place and it’s overwhelming. It’s a waste of my time to point out the obvious to those who refuse to see.
“Disagreeing with the lunatics on the left is not evidence of being deranged.”
Of course it’s not. I probably disagree with them as much as you do. But the problem is that ideology is making people crazy. This is a general problem with all ideology. There is no question that both left and right are becoming more and more obsessed with their ideological projects at the expense of common sense and civility.
re: “Evidence is all over the place”
Like “Russian Collusion” eh? (Ha! Where did that go? FADED like a honeymoon erec you-know-what!)
Too much Rachel ‘Pat” Maddow. Branch out, “change the channel”. Stop watching ‘The Big Show’ (or whatever he calls his show) with Keith Olbermann … Lawrence O’Donnell will warp your mind. PMSNBC is _not_ your friend … HuffPo likewise. Get off DU and Daily Kos websites.
“Evidence is all over the place and it’s overwhelming. It’s a waste of my time to point out the obvious to those who refuse to see.”
In other words, you have no evidence and are hoping that bluster will win the day.
Believing that government should remain small and not run our everyday lives is an ideology that drives people crazy?
I would say that you were crazy long before you got around to judging the sanity of others.
Don Jindra: Evidence is all over the place and it’s overwhelming. It’s a waste of my time to point out the obvious to those who refuse to see.
Translation: I’ve got nothing but refuse to admit it.
_jim, It amuses me when people who don’t know me insinuate they know my viewing habits and political biases. I don’t watch any of the people you mentioned. I don’t watch Fox either. I’m not a Democrat. I’m not a Republican. I’m a member of no political group and know of none that interests me.
MarkW & John Endicott, This is not the place to list the craziness of both left and right. But the way you guys jump to ridiculous conclusions about me is part of that craziness. The way people faun over Trump like giggling schoolgirls is part of that craziness. I wish people would open their eyes. I wish they would start listening to each other again.
[Don, please use the a single username to ensure continuity of the discussion. I changed it this time so the other commenters would know who was replying. Plus, it’s site policy. Thanks. -mod]
re: ” It amuses me when people who don’t know me insinuate they know my viewing habits and political biases.”
Call it “pattern matching”, boy. We all do it. Even you. Some may call it “profiling”, as you wish …
Remember the old trope “If it walks like a duck, squawks like duck …”? Yeah, that one … we’ve found a duck. “You are known by your deeds” All others like Bloomberg pay with their own cash whereas Bernie is willing to always pay with someone else’s cash (ergo): Socialist. Duck.
Don, when you make assertions and then refuse to back them up when called on it, it’s not a “ridiculous conclusion” or “craziness” to come to the realization that you simply can’t (Either because there is nothing to back it up or to your own incompetence at being able to do so, or as exceedingly seems likely both).
It really is amazing how the weak minded think they can refute a well researched and presented post by just declaring it a “conspiracy theory”.
Weak minded? You’ll never be able to make that stick. Honestly, I didn’t bother reading much of that “well researched” essay. I can’t take a writer seriously who begins with silly political spin. And it doesn’t matter which side of the political fence they’re on.
…then your comment should stop at silly poltical spin!
In other words, you decided it’s just a conspiracy theory without actually bothering to read the authors argument.
BTW, why is quoting Democrats “political spin”?
Like I said before, weak minded. And apparently he’s proud of it as well.
Yep. Nothing say lack of intelligence, credibility, and integrity like attacking an article that one hasn’t even bothered reading as being “wacky conspiracy theory”. And he has the nerve to call other people crazy.
Don Jindra doesn’t know, that CIA published papers documenting that “conspiracy theory” was PSYOP put in place to prevent questioning official JFK assassination story.
By declassifying the papers, they de facto canceled it.
Hey Don Jindra, please join and embrace “cancel culture”.
Glad to see this picked apart. Fake crisis right now. Like war with Iran. I never heard a talking head mention that Iran and Iraq fought each other to, what was it, an 8 year stalemate? And Iraq fell to the coalition forces in 3-6 weeks? I am just a guy who was an Infantry Officer from 1967 to 1974 (platoon leader in RVN in 68, battalion operations officer in Korea in 72), and I am guessing that the US would make short work of Iranian forces. Credit to Trump that he resisted Bolton’s desire to go to war with them. Trump did not go to war for fear of the Iranians. There is no sense to waste the blood and money when there are safer and cheaper ways to skin the cat. Like punishing the Russians; why go to war (if they were really harming our elections, why has no one called for war with them?) when fracking for oil and gas can let their leadership suffer a slow death? But I never heard a talking head make that assessment when there was panic about a war with Iran. Another fake fear.
Thank you for your service.
F22 pilot visually checked the load out on an Iranian F4 then kindly told him to ‘go home, son’.
The air forces of the U.S. Gulf Allies have the capability to take down Iran’s airforce all by themselves. Which just goes to show how weak Iran’s military really is.
The Mad Mullahs of Iran are in a very shaky position right now. The Iranian people are not happy and now they are dealing with the coronavirus. Things may just work out in our favor, removing the Mad Mullahs from power, without our having to go to war with them. But make no mistake, there *will* be war if the Mad Mullahs continue down the road to developing nuclear weapons. It’s up to them.
Funny, but fighter jets (in a fight) never see each other nowadays, it is all missiles.
re: “Funny, but fighter jets (in a fight) never see each other nowadays, it is all missiles.”
F22. Stealth. Was never seen on RADAR until … visual.
Doh! moment.
“Glad to see this picked apart. Fake crisis right now. Like war with Iran. I never heard a talking head mention that Iran and Iraq fought each other to, what was it, an 8 year stalemate? And Iraq fell to the coalition forces in 3-6 weeks?”
I think that is a good comparison of the military abilities of Iraq/Iran to the United States. What Iran and Iraq couldn’t do in eight years, the American military did in six weeks. Well, I guess it would have taken 12 weeks if George W. had decided to take down the Mad Mullahs of Iran at the same time he took down Saddam Insane
Bush should have, imo. I would have were it up to me. And then we wouldn’t have to be messing with the Mad Mullahs and their nukes right now.
The frustrating thing about it is if ole George W. had given the Iranian people a little moral support they might have rebelled and done the work of the U.S. military for us in Iran. We had over 300,000 American troops on both sides of Iran at the time. More missed opportunities to take down the bad guys. If George H. W. Bush had taken down Saddam during the first Gulf War we wouldn’t have had to go back in there. Let evil hang around and the situation just gets worse.
The Green Revolution occurred under Obama.
The coalition that Bush the Elder assembled did not have the will to take out Saddam. Heck, most of OUR media were busy proclaiming that there was no need to go to war, and everything could be solved if we would just remove all sanctions on Iraq.
Tom Abbott, agreed, that was the time to do it.
Hey Commie Bob…re this:
“The Democrats betrayed working Americans and sowed the seeds of their own defeat. They don’t understand that. ”
The Dems and Globalists have been actively trying to push for a working mans socialistic revolt against Trump with the hysterical assistance of the Hollyweirdos…and they seem confused that the working man aint listening. As you say, they just don’t get it. And as for Moore, he says whatever suits him, truth is immaterial. I hope to meet that particular slug one day…down a dark ally would be perfect.
‘And now, Comrade Bernie likens COVID-19 to another fake crisis…’
Please keep your shallow political views out of this.
Are you scared by socialism? Is that why you regularly express such ‘right wing’ views?
I am scared by rampant capitalism, but that has nothing to do with climate or coronavirus.
Oh great seer, where is this land of “rampant capitalism” of which you speak?
According to some communists of my acquaintance, there is pure communism and everything else is a form of capitalism.
I do hope you have other acquaintances–maybe some that are gainfully employed!
Socialism is force. It’s one group of people taking money from another group of people for no better reason than they want to.
What the heck is rampant capitalism? You actually fear permitting people to trade with each other without government control?
Capitalism is people cooperating with each other. Socialism is and has always been might makes right, the majority stealing the money and the rights of the minority.
I’ve found that socialism is the economic manifestation of insecurity and greed recognized by enough like-minded people so that it becomes the dominant form of legalized theft in a political oganization! These people also use the power of the state to compensate for their unsatisisfied sexual drives, too!
(Ok, I just threw that last part in to give them a plausible excuse rather than accuse them of some mental disorder!)
Mental illness is % higher the further left one goes.
Cooperation between China and the USA, both largest economies is vital. Tariffs to be dealt with on a government basis is what is going on right now. Cooperation dealing with COVID is critical.
Yet banning Huawei or Chinese students is “capitalism”?
There is an invisible hand, Adam Smith’s, groping my wallet right now.
How does capitalism grope your wallet. Capitalists don’t have the power to force you to do anything.
Only government has the authority to use force.
It’s socialism that robs people of what they have earned, capitalism is what makes that earning possible in the first place.
“Yet banning Huawei or Chinese students is “capitalism”?”
Banning Huawei is a national security issue. Huawei hardware has backdoors put into them by the Chinese that allow the Chinese government to spy on whoever uses Huawei equipment.
I haven’t heard that Chinese students have been banned, other than as a result of the Coronavirus outbreak.
> Are you scared by socialism?
Good trolling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Book_of_Communism
Anyone with a working brain should be scared of socialism.
Anyone who works, should be scared of socialism.
Those who would rather be taken care of by others, embrace socialism.
Those who can, do. Those who can’t become Socialists.
Socialism! Redistributing POVERTY since the Mayflower landed, or perhaps some other later date.
Int’l markets are spooked. US market follows-suit. Nothing too peculiar about it at all.
This goes double when markets are at or near record highs, most investors are looking for the top so they can get out before the markets tank.
It really is pathetic how Democrats and liberals in general assume that the government can’t do anything, unless the president personally takes the lead.
They also assume that society in general can’t do anything unless government takes the lead.
The US Executive Presidency, constitutionally, takes the lead in clearly defined areas.
As opposed to Westminster’s whimsical vote of no-confidence parliamentary system which the very shifty Schiff with Pelosi tried to re-impose on the US. Notice the shambles over 3 years in both governments, not to mention Italy, France,….
President Trump clearly defends the US presidential system, under concerted attack by “whimpeachment” (nicely coined by RockyRoad above).
When Sir mini-Mike Bloomberg told the Queen that “we will forgive 1812, if you forgive 1783”, he let a large tomcat out of the bag. President Trump reminded Trudeau of that 1812 attack.
There’s a HUGE difference between “leads in clearly defined areas” and “can’t do ANYTHING” unless the president takes the lead”.
There have been a lot of deaths caused by the climate change crisis.
Deaths caused by do-gooders and their attempts to reshape the economy in their image, using climate change as the excuse.
Of note one particular space-shuttle mission on account of new insulating foam …
-Jim: Can you give me a reference or some direction for more reading? I know where you are heading with the comment and I’d like to read more…
I can’t come up with a article right now, but there were claims that there was no problem with insulation peeling off the tanks during lift off until after the formula for the foam was changed in order to eliminate CFCs.
It was foam that peeled off the tank that punched a hole in the craft’s wing.
re: “Can you give me a reference or some direction for more reading?”
Joe, do remember the foam coming off the aux fuel tank and hitting one of the shuttle’s leading edge of a wing? It damaged the SiC heat tiles/assembly leading to ingress of plasma on reentry and eventual structure failure and crack-up … this was Columbia, we heard the boom in the DFW area …
https://spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts107/030707impacttest/
A new environmentally friendly foam/manufacturing process was utilized in the manufacture/foam used to insulate the external fuel tank:
https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/04/national/engineers-97-report-warned-of-damage-to-tiles-by-foam.html
“NASA had eliminated the use of Freon in foam production, Mr. Katnik reported.”
———————–
http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=d09813ec-ed7b-4ce8-84af-c07adad9f87d
The US markets were way overdue for a +10% correction. The wuhan virus may have helped trigger it. But despicable, politically motivated scaremongering is driving the US markets lower for the moment.
Witness: Nancy Pelosi: ‘Too Late’ for Trump Admin to Stem Coronavirus Outbreak
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/02/26/nancy-pelosi-trump-administration-response-to-coronavirus-is-too-late/
The craven ‘crisis’ mongers don’t care about the world economies they hope to drive further down or the incomes of the world citizens that will be impacted by their reckless pursuit of political advantage. This, from the same political party that oozes faux concern for ‘the little people’. Words fail me……
…too late and we have what…18 cases in the US, all under quarantine?
Another “whimpeachment” (whimsical impeachment) by my favorite document ripper!
re: “Nancy Pelosi: ‘Too Late’ for Trump Admin to Stem Coronavirus Outbreak”
The House (where Pelosi is speaker and sets the agenda) should have been busy studying this issue, holding hearings, and making proposals for bills before now – But Nooooo! They were too busy with whimpeachment hearings and the like! (Beginning before Christmas of last years if anybody remembers!)
“2. The pandemic could throw a spotlight on the Trump administration’s criminal negligence.”
I would love to read what this is supposed to be about. With no details, it’s vacuous and leaves everyone to their imagination, as if there was a problem here. This is an evil ploy to sow doubt.
. ..Act II of Mr. Schiff’s recent soliloquy!
Harding continues: I had the good fortune to leave the service (I enjoyed all those years and recommend infantry service) and attend law school on the GI Bill. Having now retired from practicing law, I do prefer the present capitalism economic system to the socialist system.
When I am injured I can hire a lawyer, usually, and generally seek damages from the wrong doer, except when it is a government doing a government function, then one runs into the doctrine of sovereign immunity.
Just wait; once Uncle Bernie and Co take over the means of production, not only will we get the efficiency of government services, we will not be able to get redress for damages from doctors for malpractice, injuries from negligently designed products, discrimination in wealth distribution by wealth distribution authority, etc. Socialism has never benefited anyone but the rulers. I am surprised the trial lawyers have not taken a stand against socialism; it means the end of economic freedom, which means the end of freedom.
Expansion of Heathrow Airport has just been dealt a serious blow by the UK court of appeal ruling that it didn’t properly take climate change into account.
I certainly hope sovereign immunity can pull us out of this hole the government has dug us into by listening to the green crazies.
I’ve been reading light novels from various countries over the last few years.
Even without checking the author, I can always tell the ones from China. In every one of them, the government is corrupt and those who are related to those in power can do anything to anybody.
The police won’t do anything, and if you complain, you will be the one that gets in trouble.
A universal theme of these Chinese novels, is that those with power are above the law.
Culture tells.
The stock market will likely crash for two reasons. First, the prices are inflated beyond the reasonable value of the companies, their services and products. Two, the loss or progress of labor and environmental arbitrage that creates a perception of Green, sustainable, profitable commerce and choices. Perhaps India will fill the role that China served.
Anthony,
FYI.
Trying to access your website just now..
I had a malicious malware attempt trying do a re-direct and to load bogus Flash malware to my computer (iMac) from this site:
http://ufye.koofukrev.site
It was trying to disguise as a Flash player load from Adobe.
It kept re-directing me to that site from your webpage.
I finally had to add it to my router’s blocked web addresses to stop it and get to your web page.
Bad stuff.
Crazy People obviously don’t like WUWT.
I’ve encountered this too on my Mac Mini. Thanks for warning others.
What DNS are you guys using? Using Google here (8.8.8.8) and never saw what you describe …
The markets were simply ripe for a cleaning crash. The virus is just an excuse.
Volatility in the markets for last 12 years have been at historic lows. The 2007/2008 financial crises was the last time volatility was very high. Right now sp implied volatility around 28 pct compared to 80 pct on Nov 11, 2008.
Contrary to popular opinion hedge funds generally remove volatility from the market because they provide liquidity. I say generally because a large hedge fund going bankrupt can add volatility but overall they remove volatility.
Back when I was more involved in the market, conventional wisdom was that much of the volatility came from day traders. Basically, amateurs dabbling in the market. Individually they didn’t have much wealth, but their were millions of them. These were the people who reacted to rumors and over reacted to trends. The rest of us over time learned to wait for trends to develop, and then wait for the day traders to over react. We would move in afterword to make profits from the day traders mistakes.
There would have been a lot more daytraders if there wasn’t the silly rule of requiring a daytrader to have a minimum of $25,000.00 in their account before they could daytrade. I never did understand that rule. Why would they make a rule that penalizes the poorest people and keeps them out of the market? Some of those poor people might have been able to make themselves some money if they had the chance.
I wish I had some dry powder. This is a great investment opportunity for those that do have.
The U.S. economy is very strong. If we can manage to avoid large-scale quarantines, we will do just fine.
I heard Dr. Seigle say this morning (he is reporting from Nebraska’s Bio lab where the COVID-19 patients are staying) that the virus is more infectious than the ordinary flu, but that all the patients seem to be responding well to the anit-viral drugs they are being given, and that it looks like all of them will be able to go home in the very near future.
We now have one person who has tested positive in Calfornia and it is unknown at this time how that person became infected.
We’ll just have to wait and see if and how this virus spreads. And if the anti-viral drugs are an effective treatment, then large-scale quarantines may not be necessary. The last thing we need is to shut down business in large sections of the nation. Then the stock market *will* crash.
David, you need to takes a break, man, this further example of your insistence on telling the truth is getting very tiresome for the true believers in CAGW, Progressivism and other useless mind-porn. Heads will explode, libtards will wail at the sky; and your friends and allies will take a sip of their preferred beverage and call for more popcorn!
It is so predictable for the DemoKKKrats to politicize a potential pandemic; they seem to pick against the American public at every opportunity, why not chose a VIRUS over their VOTERS! Have you ever considered doing a post on all the nations that have amassed great wealth by adopting Socialism? It should be a short one! Putting crooks and crazies in charge of the ill-informed, envious and lazy; what could go wrong!
AB: +100
Everyone seems to have forgotten the 2008 “Lehman Moment” here, although the financial crowd are muttering that phrase right now.
What did the central banks do then – why, radical money pumping. Today it is called the “everything bubble”.
Lehman, not even a bank, almost disintegrated the global financial system. It was not the cause, like COVID today, but the trigger for a bubble primed to blow.
This IS President Trump’s Achilles’ heel. It would have dramatic 2020 cascading effects beyond reason. COVID could suddenly turn into a massive crash.
Even arch globalizers are saying COVID is the game-changer.
President Trump campaigned last time on Glass-Steagall, bank separation which was repealed by Democrat Clinton. This the key principle along with massive infrastructure, space and nuclear energy, that will get us out from under that Damocles Sword.
Glass-Steagall was implemented in the 1930’s to avoid another 1929 stock market crash.
It separated banks from investment institutions.
Ronald Regan started chipping away at Glass-Steagall and by the time “W”s admin gave it the final stab the “2008 crisis” was already fomenting.
Many high-rolling financiers made big bucks from the 2008 debacle.
“O” tried to correct the mess by adopting Frank-Dodd.
But alas Trump has insured Frank-Dodd is flaccid.
From my armchair it seems the gov’t, the Fed and the Banks are trying their best to recreate the 2008 great recession all over again.
Corona Virus maybe their ticket.
Much of the world’s economy is utilizing just-in-time production, and many of their components are sourced from China. If those deliveries don’t happen, there will be widespread ripple effects when stockpiled supplies run out. China may feel forced to abandon quarantines and send everyone back to work, despite the downside of doing so.
China will likely save things as they will have people die rather than crash economy. They view this as chance to gain market share.
Those who rely on JIT are already aware of how such systems make them even more reliant on their suppliers. The danger of a single supplier failing is well understood. After all, there are many things that can shut down a supplier.
A fire at a factory or warehouse. Bad storms shutting down a critical highway or causing ships to divert or delay. Activists shutting down an airport.
Mr Middleton,
I respectfully disagree with your assessment. This virus is at least 20 times more lethal and spreads faster than the normal flu. We take few precautions to stop the spread of the normal flu and end up with30 or 40 million cases a year, but only 0.1% of the people die. With this virus being spread faster and easier the implication is taking no action would result in more than 40 million cases and somewhere around 800,000 or more deaths. No this is not the Zombie Apocalypse, and people should not panic, but mitigation efforts will have sizable economic impacts that will last more than just a few months., and the humanitarian impact will not be trivial, and down playing the severity of a pandemic is foolish. You also show a chart that has a decline. On that same website there is a chart showing new cases outside China, and that chart is on a steady unchanged rise.
As to equities, any article suggesting this is a garden variety correction is foolish especially considering the equity markets were already priced to perfection so any reduction in PE multiples compounded by lower earnings will have devastating effects on equity prices. Don’t take my word or it. Just listen to Mohamed El-Erian
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/02/03/dont-buy-the-dip-during-the-coronavirus-sell-off-says-mohamed-el-erian.html
Try respectfully disagreeing with something I actually wrote.
“. . .the market’s reaction to it this week has been seriously overblown… And much of the “credit” lies with the lamestream media, who seem to be wishing for a COVID-19 recession.”
I remain respectfully disagreed . . .
A +10% correction in the US markets was long overdue. However, the craven US democrats, in collusion with the media, are doing just exactly what David Middleton described.
Witness: 2/25/20Nancy Pelosi: ‘Too Late’ for Trump Admin to Stem Coronavirus Outbreak
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/02/26/nancy-pelosi-trump-administration-response-to-coronavirus-is-too-late/
Note it is implied in Pelosi’s statement that President Trump bears the responsibility to stop the spread of the coronavirus…. and “It’s too late!” The media et.al. ran with it, adding nationwide voice to the democrat fear mongering and specious maneuvering for political advantage. You remain respectfully 50% in error.
Oops…. musta missed an ‘end bold’ command, after ‘Outbreak’.
Yeah… The stock market was positioned for this. The DJIA just set an all time record high last week and the average PE of the S&P 500 was around 19. A market ripe for correction and an over-hyped “crisis” is a formula for an eventual buying opportunity… Once the “falling knives” comes to an end.
The thing that really sucks is that my company, a mid-cap E&P, had a PE of about 2.5 last week, now it’s below 2.
The historical PE is about 15.
Or not…
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
Never let a useful crisis go to waste. Rings a bell, no?
It will probably end up killing about 5% of the people that the flu will this year and every year. We don’t panic and crap our pants each flu season do we?
I have some investments in the stock market. I just turn off the news when they talk about the market drop. I’ll be OK. I wish they’d distribute some seat belts though. Regarding the coronavirus, I have so many questions that aren’t being answered. I like statistics. I’d like to see someone explain out of 100 people infected, how many people died, how many were hospitalized, how many people had symptoms just of a common cold or cough, how many people had mild symptoms, and how many people were asymptomatic. Why does this turn into pneumonia so often? What are the first symptoms experienced — do you get a cough, runny nose, fever, all of the above, none of the above? For those who recovered, how long does recovery take? Is the primary damage caused by the virus, itself or our immune systems overreacting to the virus? Would antiinflamatories help (that’s one thing they gave me in an IV when I had pneumonia a few years ago)? Do warm, humid climates help prevent the spread of the disease?
Without further guidance, if I start to get it, I’ll try my usually preventative measures — lots of Benadryl and keeping my mouth very clean (by brushing and flossing my teeth often, warm salt-water rinses and gargles often, and using a Waterpic). This doesn’t help though, once the full impact of a cold or cough takes effect.
I’m buying.
Dave Middleton, please stick to drilling holes in the ground. When it comes to the the market and virology you stink.
Based on?
The collective intelligence of the investors in the market shows that you are an idiot.
Based on the fact that the day after you posted this piece of BS the market dropped another 4.4%
WTF does the market over-reaction to COVID-19 have to do with virology?
You need to pay more attention to what various corporations are saying about their bottom line with regards to the effect this virus is having on both their top line and their bottom lines.
…
You stink with regards to financial topics.
Our PE dropped from less than 3 last week to about 2 this week. The S&P 500 average PE had risen to about 19 last week, when the markets set all time highs. The average historical PE is 15.
Your point?
COVID-19 is as contagious as influenza, but unlike influenza, it has a mortality rate of 2%
Fatality rates for viral infections that didn’t crater the market this much…
SARS 9.6%
MERS 34%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
The current fatality rate for resolved cases of COVID-19 is about 7%. WHO estimates that it will ultimately be about 2%, but acknowledges that it could be an order of magnitude off and the fatality rate is dropping faster than the logic of your arguments.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
Tell me Mr. Geolo-Virologist…..what is the fatality rate for Influenza ?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
The death rate in the US from COVID-19 is currently 0.0%.
WHO estimates that the global fatality rate from COVID-19 could be 2%, but they could be off by an order of magnitude, meaning that it could ultimately be as low as 0.2%.
Considering that this is a “novel” (new) virus, that started in a Communist dictatorship, with a Stone Age health care system, it makes Gorebal Warming look like a serious problem in comparison.
Will it get worse in the US? Probably. Will it be distinguishable from the seasonal flu in the US? I doubt it. What about the rest of the world? Who gives a frack?
SARS and MERS were not as contagious as this thing Mr. Geolo-Virologist
…
Again, I recommend you stick to drilling holes in the ground and stop venturing into territory you are ignorant of.
The typical infection rate is estimated to be 2-3 new cases per vector. It may or not be more infectious than SARS of MERS. We won’t know until it’s run its course.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/comparing-outbreaks-coronavirus-mers-sars-health-epidemic/
Hopefully this will cure your ignorance: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/19/health/coronavirus-china-sars-mers-intl-hnk/index.html
Learn how to read… From your CNN link…
It won’t be possible to definitively quantify either the fatality or infection rate until there are more comprehensive data, particularly from the places with reliable data.
Right now, the infection rate looks like 2-3 new infections per vector. But that includes the early rapid spread in Wuhan. Almost all of the surge in South Korea yesterday was within one large religious sect in Daegu.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#asia
“The death rate in the US from COVID-19 is currently 0.0%.”
…
What a fracking idiot you are. That statement is the perfect example of a “cherry pick.”
..
More than 2,800 people have globally died from this virus.
..
You need to get informed.
Cherry picking? Only a total fracking moron would quote one phrase from a comprehensive comment, post it right below the comprehensive comment and call it cherry picking…
Based on the fact that a hospitalized person in California with no known travel/contacts has tested positive for the virus.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Note: One cruise ship outnumbers all but two nations, most US cases originated from that ship and they are in quarantine.
This article tells me the ultimate death % will be 8-9% of those infected. Far higher than I’d expected from press reports. I understand why there is so much panic.
Where the stock market bubble meets the coronavirus needle.
While I totally agree with David that the coronavirus epidemic has been completely hyped, there is no reason to believe the epidemic has actually peaked and it will get a lot worse before it gets better – I think!
It is true that a peak has occurred – because the massive crack down in China has been very effective and it has only begun spreading in other countries. It may well have peaked – in China – but I suspect numbers will start to grow in China again as numbers start to grow in other countries.
I hope we have seen a good portion of the run amd it won’t get too much worse before it ends, but that seems unlikely. A pandemic is still possible, but certainly not guaranteed. And let’s all pray for that!
It’s peaked in the sense that since mid February, more people are recovering than new cases are being reported. The daily differential has been about 1,000 per day over the past three days.
Definition of peaked…
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
Clearly, we are not out of the woods yet and efforts to control and treat this virus are just beginning.
I just ordered a three day supply of pizza, just in case the supply lines collapse.
First things first.
Good thing that the best pizza doesn’t actually come from Italy.
Mr. Middleton:
Did you deliberately omit the most obvious way the virus could impact the 2020 elections? What age group is most susceptable to succumbing to the virus? What is the age group of the President and most of his significant potential opponents? And finally, how many of them are reducing their exposure to crowds of people?
Death need not even occur. How many votes would an elderly candidate in an ICU get?
Then there is the down ballot. How will campaigning, and voting, itself, be affected if there are quarantines and lockdowns on election day (note to self, apply for absentee ballot)?
Likely none of this will happen, but I foresee someone making a bad movie using the above as the plotline (and the villain will be the evil President trying to suppress the vote – would you expect otherwise?).
If China and South Korea were voting in our 2020 election, that would be a good point.
The vast majority of the serious/critical cases and deaths are among those of us over 60, and worsens with age.
While community-spread outbreaks may occur here, so far, no US cases have even reached serious/critical and there has been no community spreading, yet.
There is a simple and obvious explanation for the decline in reported active cases: the Chinese government is lying.
Even if that was accurate, so what?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
If the pope kicks the bucket, then will they elect a new pope or just stick with Benedict?
I miss John Paul II… And I’m not even Catholic… 😇
re: “And I’m not even Catholic”
RCIA (AKA Ordo Initiationis Christianae Adultorum) can change that.
I have had the exact symptoms of Covid 19 since Tuesday 3/3/2020, and still have them.
Here are the symptoms.
Fever varying between 99.6 and 100.4F
Very achy joints and muscles, back feels like sunburn
Congestion primarily in lungs. When I lie down, there is a heavy rumbling
I called into my local urgent care on 3/4 and provided the above symptoms. They they asked me to come in after asking if I’d been to China or Italy, or know anyone who’d been there.
I came in 20 minutes early, with not too many people in the waiting room, and when they affirmed my symptoms I received a mask, a simple dust mask. I told the people working there I did not want to infect anyone else. They were not worried.
The Nurse practitioner saw me, took a swab, and came back with positive for “a virus”. It was not the Flu, Influenza. There was not enough specificity to the test to know whether it was a corona virus or the specific Covid 19 strain. There is no test for that yet.
They gave me a prescription for a rescue inhaler, that I had asked for, and let me back out saying to call if I need a nebulizer treatment.
I was already taking a ton of fluids and guaifenesin, as well as albuterol (rescue inhaler) that I got in Mexico, which costs $5 dollars at any pharmacy. The price for buying it in the US is $49 with my medical plan.
My conclusion is that we have ZERO idea how many people have Covid 19. We do not have the ability to check as far as I understand.