Blockbuster news from China about COVID-19

Reposted from the Fabius Maximus Blog

By Larry Kummer, Editor / 25 February 2020

Summary: Epidemics are like wars in that truth is the first casualty. I see comment threads in which misinformation makes most readers know less than when they started. Meanwhile, this blockbuster good news from China is lost amidst the chaff.

Pandemic

First, a status report

From WHO’s February 24 situation report.

Outside China, there are 29 nations infected (1 new, 6 since Feb 3). There are 1,374 cases (261 new, 1,221 since February 3). This does not include the 695 infected and then quarantined on the Diamond Princess.

Blockbuster news from China

Here are excerpts from remarks by Tedros Adhanom, Director-General of WHO, at the February 24 media briefing. This is important news – contradicting guesses by the doomsters.

“We’re encouraged by the continued decline in cases in China.. …They found that the epidemic peaked and plateaued between the 23rd of January and the 2nd of February, and has been declining steadily since then.

That is good news, and not just for China. With no preparation and relatively primitive public health networks (compared to those of developed nations), the epidemic stabilized in roughly four weeks – probably due to China’s fast and large quarantines. That is good news, because other nations are relying on quarantines to contain the infection.

Also, this suggests that the doomsters’ predictions that the epidemic would prove uncontrollable in China – sweepting through to its four corners – are wrong. China’s 77 thousand cases sounds like a large number, but it is a small fraction of China’s 1.4 billion people. That is true even if the true number infected is twice as large, or even (implausibly) five times as large.

“They found that the fatality rate is between 2% and 4% in Wuhan, and 0.7% outside Wuhan.”

The fatality rate in the developed nations will certainly be lower than that in China outside Wuhan (medical facilities in Wuhan are overwhelmed), although the estimate of a 0.7% fatality rate might be wrong. Original estimates were over 2% (e.g., here). If proven correct, this is great news.

“They found that for people with mild disease, recovery time is about two weeks, while people with severe or critical disease recover within three to six weeks.”

That is also important news, as the length of time required for treatment of critical cases determines how quickly an epidemic overloads the hospital facilities of a region.

The Director gives the bottom line about the status of the epidemic: it is not a pandemic, yet.

“The sudden increases of cases in Italy, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Korea are deeply concerning. There’s a lot of speculation about whether these increases mean that this epidemic has now become a pandemic. We understand why people ask that question.

“WHO has already declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern – our highest level of alarm – {on January 30} when there were less than 100 cases outside China, and 8 cases of human-to-human transmission.

“Our decision about whether to use the word “pandemic” to describe an epidemic is based on an ongoing assessment of the geographical spread of the virus, the severity of disease it causes and the impact it has on the whole of society.

“For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death. Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely, it has. Are we there yet? From our assessment, not yet.”

See the WHO website for details about the meaning of “pandemic” (here and here).

The doomsters spread panic

The doomsters are multiplying faster than those infected with the diesase, spreading misinformation. They use graphs showing rapid growth in the small numbers of infected to make this seem like a major pandemic outside China. It’s not, at least yet.

They make bold statements about COVID-19 not justified by currrent research, especially comparing it to the flu. Most importantly, they assume developed nations will have the same rates of spread & mortality as China – despite our vastly better medical infrastructure.

Making this much worse is the same dynamic seen in the climate change debate: experts seeking their 15 minutes of fame by making statements (often quite wild) that are outside of the consensus, without mentioning that. In the early stages of the epidemic, there was pushback to this by other experts. Now, as in climate science, the pushback has stopped – encouaging more experts to fuel the hysteria for their own gain.

What next?

Epidemics are like wars in another respect: their outcomes are difficult to predict. But whatever happens, this is – as I said on January 25 – a historical milestone. The combination of global organization and high tech has allowed preparations during the past 54 days of an unprecedented speed and scale. Without these, by now we might be in the midst of a devastating global pandemic. This is progress.

But as usual, Trump wants to reduce our defenses to anything other than war. In the midst of the Coronavirus epidemic, President Trump proposed cutting funding to the World Health Organization by 53% and to the Pan American Health Organization by 75%. Madness.

It’s easy to follow the coronavirus story

The World Health Organization provides daily information, from highly technical information to news for the general public.

Posts about the coronavirus pandemic.
For More Information

Ideas! For some shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon. Also, see a story about our future: Ultra Violence: Tales from Venus.

Please like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Also, see these posts about epidemics…

  1. See the ugly cost of the next big flu pandemic. We can do more to prepare.
  2. Stratfor: The superbugs are coming. We have time to prepare.
  3. Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2009 swine flu in America.
  4. Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2015 ebola epidemic in America.
Films about scientists responding to global threats

In these films, we see scientists behaving according to their and our highest ideals.

When Worlds Collide (1959) – The world will end. Scientists band together to warn the world and build an ark to carry humanity to another home. It is a great film! The 1933 book by Philip Wylie and Edwin Balmer is even better than film.

Contagion (2011). – This shows the progress of a pandemic from its start with Patient Zero, through the global devastation, to an eventual victory by the world’s scientists.

When Worlds Collide (1951)Available at Amazon. Contagion (2011)Available at Amazon.

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Andrew Wilkins
February 25, 2020 10:04 am

China, being essentially a dictatorship, is not going to tell the truth. Hopefully it is on the decline, but let’s wait and see…

Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
February 25, 2020 11:32 am

In end of December, 8 Doctors warned of the a new virus with pneumonia beginning to spread. By Chairman Xi / Communist Party Policies, the police hauled r 34-year-old Dr Li Wenliang and the others in, accused them of spreading Rumors, and forced them to recant. Dr. Li and several more of those doctors have now died. More than 3000 health workers came down with the coronavirus for lack of warning and lack of protection.
Though warned, in early December, the CPI refused to quarantine before the January Lunar New Year major travel. That rapidly spread the coronavirus. <a href=https://globalvoices.org/2020/02/11/public-outcry-over-wuhan-coronavirus-leads-to-blame-game-in-china/.Public announcement only occurred about January 26th, AFTER receiving high level permission to do so. That forced massive draconian action to stop the rapid spread.
Far better to act rapidly and be blamed for alarmism than to delay action and find it worse than hoped for.

icisil
Reply to  David L. Hagen
February 25, 2020 12:23 pm

“Far better to act rapidly and be blamed for alarmism than to delay action and find it worse than hoped for.”

That’s what the climate alarmists say. Oh dear, what are we seeing here?!

commieBob
Reply to  icisil
February 25, 2020 5:09 pm

We’re seeing that life is complicated and simple rules are bogus. Of course, the simple rule I just stated …

There is a Daoist story that covers the situation.

Its origin is unknown but it comes from the Taoist tradition so it could easily be more than 2,000 years old. And even though that’s about as old as stories get, this one is completely relevant to your life and how you can live in the future.

It’s a story of a farmer and his horse.

One day his horse runs away. And his neighbor comes over and says, to commiserate, “I’m so sorry about your horse.” And the farmer says “Who Knows What’s Good or Bad?” The neighbor is confused because this is clearly terrible. The horse is the most valuable thing he owns.

But the horse comes back the next day and he brings with him 12 feral horses. The neighbor comes back over to celebrate, “Congratulations on your great fortune!” And the farmer replies again: “Who Knows What’s Good or Bad?”

And the next day the farmer’s son is taming one of the wild horses and he’s thrown and breaks his leg. The neighbor comes back over, “I’m so sorry about your son.” The farmer repeats: “Who Knows What’s Good or Bad?”

Sure enough, the next day the army comes through their village and is conscripting able-bodied young men to go and fight in war, but the son is spared because of his broken leg.

And this story can go on and on like that. Good. Bad. Who knows? link

Life is often/usually complicated. I think I can get away with that.

icisil
Reply to  commieBob
February 25, 2020 5:32 pm

That’s what I hear climate alarmists say on twitter all the time – “It’s complicated”

holly elizabeth Birtwistle
Reply to  David L. Hagen
February 25, 2020 1:04 pm

Nonsense David. I guess you believe what you want to believe, because why would you believe the story you just wrote? I have zero confidence that is correct. Zero.

Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 25, 2020 3:03 pm

That’s a brief summary of 1000s of tweets, news items etc.
Medical Pubs:
CDC: CDC: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
WHO: Database of publications on coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
For Twitter details, follow @DrEricDing
Dr. Tom Frieden @DrTomFrieden

Dr. Tom Frieden @DrTomFrieden
#COVID19 will become a pandemic. We don’t know if it will be mild, moderate or severe, or how many countries it will reach. As we shift from the initiation phase of the pandemic to the acceleration stage, I’ve highlighted 8 things we must do for
@CNN

ɪᴀɴ ᴍ ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ MicrobeSneezing faceDNALab coatMosquito @MackayIM

This post is based on the assumption that a #COVID19 pandemic will occur at some point and that Wave 1 will impact us, wherever we live, in the coming weeks and months. It aims to prepare & familiarise us with that.
#PLANnotpanic https://virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-youve-about-to-be-in-a-pandemic/

ps Show me where I’m wrong.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  David L Hagen
February 26, 2020 1:50 pm

IMO this is correct.
It is only now a matter of time.
Everyone for some reason thinks things that have not happened recently cannot or will not happen.
But history is clear.
The way diseases spread is clear.
Global travel is a reality.
This virus is now uncontained and past the ability to track and isolate everyone who has it, if it ever was possible.
So very likely everyone in the world will wind up exposed.

Okay, so now for the scary stuff.
Millions of people in Africa and elsewhere, including the US, have HIV infections. Antivirals keep the virus suppressed but there is still a lot of viral replication.
And lots of people have Ebola…there is an outbreak ongoing.
Let’s hope that it is not possible for this virus to recombine with another pathogen in a coinfected individual.
Worst case is the virus becomes more deadly and not less so through one or a combination of reasons.
It would also be bad if somehow this virus has the ability to cause a chronic infection.
They need to find out soon if that is actually happening.

ATheoK
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 25, 2020 4:34 pm

Interesting…
Zero confidence and zero proof in your disbelief, or why you have disbelief, or why others should disbelieve.

Unfortunately, David accurately stated the current state and issues.

Then again, you probably think the CDC is wrong also:

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is warning Americans that they should brace for the spread of coronavirus into their communities, the New York Times reported Tuesday.

“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad,” a C.D.C. official said, according to the New York Times.

The CDC says it’s not a matter of “if” but “when” the coronavirus will spread throughout the U.S, according to the New York Times.”

Fabius is neither a trustworthy nor medically qualified source. If he wants to believe everything China says, that’s his problem.

Risk Assessment

The fact that this disease has caused illness, including illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread is concerning. These factors meet two of the criteria of a pandemic. As community spread is detected in more and more countries, the world moves closer toward meeting the third criteria, worldwide spread of the new virus.

The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States.

For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at this time, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low.

However, it’s important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic. In that case, the risk assessment would be different.

What May Happen
More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States.

At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.”

China is actively censoring citizen attempts to post COVID-19 information on the internet. Absolute censoring implies China is hiding the actual facts. Nor is WHO trustworthy as a source.

Iran’s Deputy Health Minister Infected With Coronavirus As The Country Becomes An Epicenter Of The Outbreak”

Iran has been dismissive of COVID-19 with minimal controls.
How bad is it? Pakistan stopped eight Iranians from entering Pakistan because they displayed COVID-19 symptoms.
Meaning, alleged COVID-19 infected numbers for Iran are far understated.

South Korea recently showed massive increases in COVID-19 infections.

LIVE FROM HONG KONG: Coronavirus Expands as South Korea Now Calls For Highest State of Alert with Over 600 Confirmed Cases”

As did Italy.

Every 2nd and third with exposure to COVID-19 is dangerous, to themselves and to everyone else. First world countries will be hard pressed to control incoming COVID-19 exposure.

You believe as you will, holly.
COVID-19 has all of the earmarks to be a pandemic.
Alleged graphics for COVID-19 show three illness categories:
Infected: those believed to be infected, most of these are symptom diagnosed, not tested.
Deaths: those deaths that reporting countries are willing to acknowledge.
Recovered: those patients that reporting countries are happy to report as ‘recovered’.

If a COVID-19 patient is not reported as ‘recovered’ or ‘deaths’; they are still sick!! Not a good thing for a disease that is deadliest during disease later stages.

Most graphics show a percentage of total infected. That is a false number. Percentages should be of patients who are no longer infected, i.e. recovered totally or died.
Number of deaths divided by the total of recovered plus deaths equals a truer picture of COVID-19.

COVID-19 patients in ICUs frequently fail to survive.
ICUs are small departments in any hospital. When patients are too numerous for ICU care, they end up elsewhere with lower care standards.
Even in America.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  ATheoK
February 25, 2020 4:47 pm

One reason South Korea has had such a large uptick in cases is that they started testing large numbers of people who have no symptoms.
They have now decided to test everyone.
What this shows is that the disease is already far more widespread than generally believed in many places, and that many people have few or very mild symptoms, like a mild cold our cough.
I am looking for a link to that report but I did not read it, I heard it on air from some health official on CNBC today…was too busy trading to pay attention to who said it.
But It sounds like a plausible reason why that place has so many new cases…they have an excellent health system and just decided to test as many as they could.
Note that in every case that people have been tested, many were found to be positive despite the fact they had no symptoms.
One thing is for sure…this is gonna serious f**k up the economies of every country in the world.

Joe B
Reply to  ATheoK
February 25, 2020 5:08 pm

Mr. Mcginley
Tragically, you are 100% correct.
As of 1700, Feb 25 (local time), the South Korean government has tested just under 40,000 people.
Likewise, the Italians HAD been vigorously testing their population (hence the high # there), but reports are indicating a rapid depletion of test kits and follow on testing.

For ANYONE unable to grasp the magnitude of what is unfolding, shame on you.
Shame.

One of the (several) regions of extreme concern (at this moment, anyway) is Iran.
The ridiculously low number of reported cases in NO WAY correlates to the reported number of infected Iranians showing up all over the Middle East.

Wim Röst
Reply to  ATheoK
February 25, 2020 7:53 pm

ATheoK “Infected: those believed to be infected, most of these are symptom diagnosed, not tested.”

WR: There have been several changes in the way of counting:
” China’s changed how it counts virus cases three times now. Here’s why ”
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/21/health/coronavirus-reported-cases-covid-19-change-intl/index.html
“But on Thursday the government guidelines changed and “clinically confirmed” were excluded from the tally of confirmed cases.”

David A
Reply to  ATheoK
February 25, 2020 9:16 pm

Atheo, correct on all points.

This, from the Fabius post is interesting,
” the epidemic stabilized in roughly four weeks – probably due to China’s fast and large quarantines.”

Egads, can you be more out of touch and gullible! China placed “potentially exposed” people into large public buildings with rows of beds right next to each other by the thousands. ( Estimated over 1.4 million) This is the Princess cruise ship on RO steroids. No walls, common breathing air, community restrooms – in short death traps, just as prisons, elderly homes, large apartment complexes where people are locked in.

That is NOT quarantine, it is a death trap.

It is worse in nursing homes.

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-continues-with-fake-reporting-of-71-new-deaths,-508-new-infections-and-as-more-contradictory-cases-emerge-

China’s official numbers are FUBAR. They would never shut there economy down over 2000 deaths over a 7 week period.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  ATheoK
February 26, 2020 2:10 pm

The Chinese people are not stupid.
There are people in leadership positions who doubtlessly know that in order to stop a pandemic one has to take steps prior to tens of thousands of people dying, so it is not a logical argument to suppose that they would not have imposed a quarantine for something that has killed a relatively small number of people.
That is not to say anyone should or can believe the numbers they are disseminating.
But them not being forthcoming does not automatically mean the worst things imaginable are a reality there.
When a new virus begins to circulate, and it is one that spreads like a cold or the flu, there is one chance to prevent it from becoming endemic, and that is when all cases are tracible.
Failing that, it is really just a matter of time before it is going around like every other human illness in circulation.
Are there any people who do not get colds because they are never exposed?
Who never get the flu because they are never exposed?
I doubt it.
Our immunity and hygiene protects us, each in some proportion.
How easily it spreads, what amount of virions will cause disease, how many have mild illness, how long it can survive outside the body in various environments…this is what limits other diseases, and what will ultimately limit this one.
If a vaccine is developed, that will be great, but it will not be very soon.
That company starting trials in April has a new process but they have had zero successes so far with other viruses.
Producing a viral antigen is not enough…it has to be safe and then it has to cause and immune response sufficient to block infection.
Antivirals may work, but that remains to be seen.
We should know the answer to that soon.
But antivirals rarely work forever or for everyone…although Gilead is good at making ones that do.
But against Ebola, Remdesivir was only effective in a certain percentage of cases.
It is a rare antiviral that works all by itself…most must be combined with something else that works a different way.
It is early to speculate yet…but people who are homeless drug addicts, are very old, very sick, who are lifelong cigarette smokers, in places with poor hygiene and or not a good health case system…those are the people most at risk.

This could fizzle, and for a while I was not overly worried about a pandemic…but at this point this is following the storyline for a pandemic.
And all that means is it will spread widely in multiple countries around the world.

Reply to  ATheoK
February 29, 2020 9:41 am

If I go to this site:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I find (as of 12:12 EST, 2/29/20):

Global totally recovered = 39,761
Global dead = 2,933
So global dead/(global totally recovered + global dead) = 2933/42694 = 6.9%

Hubei, Mainland China, totally recovered = 28,993
Hubei, Mainland China, dead = 2,727
So Hubei, Mainland China dead/(totally recovered + dead) = 2727/31720 = 8.6%

SOOOOOO…

Global totally recovered, EXCLUDING Hubei, Mainland China = 39761 – 28993 = 10,768
Global dead, EXCLUDING Hubei, Mainland China = 2933-2727 = 206
So, EXCLUDING Hubei, Mainland China, dead/(totally recovered + dead) = 268/10768 = 2.5%.

From a second site (which uses different calculations to obtain death rates):

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Even so, the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. Nobody 9 and under has died of this coronavirus to date.

So unless I’m over 80 years old and in Mainland China, why should I be even remotely concerned about coronavirus?

Reply to  ATheoK
March 2, 2020 2:53 pm

It looks like my previous comments were very wrong:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/25/blockbuster-news-from-china-about-covid-19/#comment-2928132

It’s been shocking to me to see six deaths in the state of Washington with so few people known to be infected. It looks like I seriously underestimated the level of danger here in the U.S. Probably I shouldn’t even have made my previous comments based on results in South Korea and Italy, but I figured a wealthy country’s health system could keep just about anyone who did not have other serious medical problems alive.

Reply to  David L. Hagen
February 25, 2020 11:10 pm

Growth rate outside China is nominally exponential with 10X / 3 weeks. But high undercounting in Iran etc. See Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Dashboard with Log scale
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Alex
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
February 25, 2020 12:09 pm

One should be really silly to trust the China figures.
It is the healing force of the communist party.
Zhejiang province: 1205 infected, just 1 dead
Jiangsu: 631 infected, 0 dead.
Apparently they found the holy Graal.

PeterT
Reply to  Alex
February 25, 2020 1:29 pm

Alex, don’t yell at me, just playing red herring. Have you been to China? I have, about 20 times between 2010 and 2012. I’ve been to the far north west, bordering on Kazakhstan, and as far as the south east border with Vietnam. It is a very capitalistic communist country. Anyone can get a business license in China. (But much easier for locals.) Yes, they have internet firewalls (CNN is blocked as well as other ironically leftist sites.) I wish our government would block CNN in Canada as well. Singapore has even more stringent internet filtering, and it’s not a communist state. People are generally pretty well informed in China, but no, it is not a democracy. That said, I don’t know why China is usually referred to as a “developing nation”. It’s the second largest economy in the world, and seems pretty developed to me. One issue I have with democracy is that MSM and social media get people like Trudeau and others elected. (Put other examples here.) Sign me up for the “Benevolent Dictator” Job. Voting rights should not be given to people that can’t pass a qualification exam. Example questions could be:
1.) Do you believe our country can be powered reliably by unicorn farts?
2.) Are tax dollars limitless resources that appear by magic?
3.) Is Greta Thunberg an inspiration to you?
4.) Have you now, or have you ever been exposed to Skeptical Science or Michael Mann?
5.) Will you vote for Bernie Sanders in the next election?

Of course the exam would be longer, but clearly there is a large percentage of our democratic citizens (in a lot of our countries) that would answer yes to most of these facetious questions.

What use is “Free Speech” if you only have the option of speaking your mind on Internet blogs, with no chance to present on MSM? Most of our politicians just want to get elected. They know people will swallow almost everything that’s fed to them, and they weather vane with popular fads like the “Climate Crisis”. None of them have a plan in place for the future if they win, and if they actually did have a real plan, they probably wouldn’t try to use it to get elected. (Because it would have to make sense, and that’s not important during the race to an election.)

There should be regulations in place that do not allow broadcasters to repeat blatant lies with no opportunity for rebuttal. Sigh. Good luck with that, right?

ATheoK
Reply to  PeterT
February 25, 2020 4:42 pm

“PeterT February 25, 2020 at 1:29 pm
Alex, don’t yell at me, just playing red herring. Have you been to China? I have, about 20 times between 2010 and 2012.”

Allegations, insinuations and ad hominems ruin your comment.
Few skeptics believe China is a developing nation. That is alarmist trope.

Nor have you stated the current situation in China.
Alex’s statement looks to be accurate.
2020 is not 2012!

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  ATheoK
February 25, 2020 4:51 pm

Give him a break…he got this part right:
“Voting rights should not be given to people that can’t pass a qualification exam. Example questions could be:
1.) Do you believe our country can be powered reliably by unicorn farts?
2.) Are tax dollars limitless resources that appear by magic?
3.) Is Greta Thunberg an inspiration to you?
4.) Have you now, or have you ever been exposed to Skeptical Science or Michael Mann?
5.) Will you vote for Bernie Sanders in the next election?”

He sounds OK to me.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  ATheoK
February 26, 2020 4:39 am

He sounds OK to me.

I will gladly “2nd” that, Nicholas McG.

There is lots of “truth” and “common sense thinking” in what PeterT posted.

Petert
Reply to  ATheoK
February 26, 2020 1:18 pm

Thank you Samuel and Nicholas. ATheok, I think you misunderstood what I was trying to say, but to be clear, I am a devout skeptic. I’m on this site every day, and read every article and post. I have learned much here.

KcTaz
Reply to  PeterT
February 26, 2020 4:03 am

“None of them have a plan in place for the future if they win…”
Peter, oh, yes they do. They just aren’t dumb enough to actually say what it is. Even Bernie, as bad as what he admits to is, is only revealing half the plan, if that.
They may be dumb but they ain’t plumb dumb.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  KcTaz
February 26, 2020 9:50 am

I am sure I am not the only one who thinks that TDS has caused the leftists to let their masks slip, and to reveal way more than they used to ever reveal about what they really think.
Look how many are saying Bernie goes to far, but when pressed, admit they will vote for him.
Have an actual conservative who means what he says when he says it, is far worse than even the most radical extreme left wing socialist (translation: communist) such as Bernie.

Dodgy Geezer
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
February 25, 2020 12:52 pm

Alas, that comment also applies to Western democracies nowadays….

Kevin Hilde
Reply to  Dodgy Geezer
February 25, 2020 2:38 pm

False equivalency.

As in …
“How dare you point out the fecal matter floating by in the sewer water I’m washing dishes in. Don’t think I didn’t notice the water spots on the glassware in your western McMansion.”

Whataboutism is the favorite tool of the Wumao. Don’t be like the wumao.

Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
February 25, 2020 2:32 pm

CDC: Coming disruption might be severe

From @CDCgov press call: “Disruption to everyday life might be severe,” says @DrNancyM_CDC. She said she told her children this morning, “While I didn’t think they were at risk right now, we as a family ought

Could a coronavirus pandemic be stopped? US warns of ‘severe’ disruptions

A federal health official warned Tuesday that the deadly coronavirus could cause “severe” disruptions in the USA as global experts struggled to fend off the outbreak and avoid a pandemic…. Is it too late?
“Disruption to everyday life may be severe,” Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, warned at a news conference Tuesday. Schools could be closed, mass public gatherings suspended and businesses forced to have employees work remotely, she said.
Messonnier said the coronavirus has caused sickness and death and sustained person-to-person transmission. That’s two of the three factors for a pandemic, she said…
“As community spread is detected in more and more countries, the world moves closer to meeting the third criteria – worldwide spread of the new virus,” Messonnier said.

From @CDC.gov

Now is the time for US businesses, hospitals, and communities to begin preparing for the possible spread of #COVID19. CDC continues to work with business, education & healthcare sectors, encouraging employers to be prepared. Learn more: https://bit.ly/2w3HujZ.

CDC in Action: Preparing Communities for Potential Spread of COVID-19
See also CDC’s official coronavirus documents
Outbreaks / Travel Warnings
Re: CDC’s “aggressive” (bureaucratic) response see COVID19 @V2019N

While South Korea has run more than 35,000 coronavirus tests, the U.S. has tested only 426 people for the virus. Only a handful of state laboratories can currently run tests outside of @CDC because the kits sent out nationwide a week and a half ago included a faulty component.

Reply to  David L Hagen
February 25, 2020 2:48 pm

Preprint: Clinical characteristics of 50404 patients with 2019-nCoV infection
Pengfei Sun, Shuyan Qie, Zongjan Liu, Jizhen Ren, Jianing Jianing Xi
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539

characteristics of 2019-nCoV infection were collected for Meta-analysis .Results: 9 studies were included in Meta-analysis, including a total of 50404 patients with 2019-nCoV infection…. the proportion of severe cases in all infected cases was 21.3%, and the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%.

…According to Meta-analysis, among the clinical characteristics of patients with 2019-nCoV infection, the incidence of fever is 90.9%, the incidence of cough is 70.8%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue is 41%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%,

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1

_Jim
Reply to  David L Hagen
February 25, 2020 3:02 pm

re: “CDC: Coming disruption might be severe”

Noting use of the weasel word “might” in the above … Alex Jones (noted conspiracy pinhead who founded PrisonPlanet et al) could have penned that.

Orson
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
February 25, 2020 5:39 pm

And since China is still led by communist power (the CCP), we ought to trust Dr Tedros because he was the third highest ranking member of Ethiopias Marxist Leninist government? Who covered up for cholera outbreaks THREE TIMES because it would reflect badly on them? And who wanted to make Zimbabwe’s Marxist leader Robert Mugabe a UN “Goodwill” Ambassador? So Tedros heaps praise on China’s present emergency actions? And the UNs WHO is a cesspool of corruption that I need to not only trust bu generously “fund” with my taxes?

Color me skeptical and label Larry gullible in his easy praise for WHO! “…because…SCIENCE?” – insert Dr Evil’s sneer “riiiight” here.

Rod
Reply to  Orson
February 26, 2020 9:21 am

Thanks. That’s a good summary of what I heard on Tucker Carlson’s show last night regarding WHO’s current leader. He also mentioned that WHO spends $200 million on air fares and hotels in a year, moe than they spend on several prominent diseases combined.

Which makes a good case to not send them a billion dollars a year, but rather to put the funding where it can be better used for the purpose of disease management. In other words, President Trump’s team just might be on top of the problems at WHO.

Reply to  Rod
February 29, 2020 9:45 am

This offhand, out-of-context jab at Trump reduces the believability of the article. Larry K, you obviously hate Trump, but so what?

KcTaz
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
February 26, 2020 3:09 am

China just let the WHO into the country. They still won’t let the CDC in. How did WHO become experts so quickly? Answer, they didn’t. They are getting Chinese Gov. data or, more likely, lies. Charles, if you believe this, I have a bridge for sale.

niceguy
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
March 3, 2020 4:44 pm

“China, being essentially a dictatorship, is not going to tell the truth”

Given that you still believe that the hep B vaccine does not cause MS, so called “liberal democracies” are not a lot better…

Gus
February 25, 2020 10:09 am

“… President Trump proposed cutting funding to the World Health Organization by 53% and to the Pan American Health Organization by 75%…”

Good. These international organizations are completely useless and worthless. They are staffed with international bureaucrats and do nothing but drain money from participating countries, money that would be better spent on hospitals, medicines, and medical professionals wherever they are needed, and it should be up to us, not up to some international bureaucracy, to decide where the need is most urgent.

Mr.
Reply to  Gus
February 25, 2020 10:32 am

Yes, just like the WMO, IPCC, etc etc etc, these UN spawn are all unaccountable POLITICAL assemblies, infested with unelected operatives whose first and only priority is career advancement, influence, peer recognition, remuneration and perks.

And whenever anything goes pear-shaped (which is often), they were “only following orders”.

Robertvd
Reply to  Mr.
February 25, 2020 12:12 pm

Just imagine the Carbon Footprint we could save by eliminating these organisations.

Mr.
Reply to  Robertvd
February 25, 2020 12:23 pm

Stuff the “carbon” footprint.
What about the gynormous $$$$$$$$ footprint taxpayers would save.

john harmsworth
Reply to  Mr.
February 26, 2020 6:33 am

And now, lives.

Patrick B
Reply to  Gus
February 25, 2020 11:35 am

WHO is the UN. We should cut all of its funding.

Goldrider
Reply to  Patrick B
February 26, 2020 6:46 am

+1000!

Reply to  Gus
February 25, 2020 11:35 am

Actually, Covid 19 is creating shortages throughout the medical field. This illustrates vulnerability of production and distribution systems in America vindicating Trump’s America first policies.

J Mac
Reply to  Edward Dooner
February 25, 2020 1:05 pm

RE: “But as usual, Trump wants to reduce our defenses to anything other than war.
This over-the top irrationality provides a perfect example of why I am inclined more and more to just ‘tune out’ Larry Kummer.

holly elizabeth Birtwistle
Reply to  J Mac
February 25, 2020 1:11 pm

I also, was disgusted with that comment about President Trump J Mac. As far as I can see, and I pay very close attention to what President Trump says and does, not what the MSM SAYS he says and does, President Trump has not yet been wrong on a single issue.

john ferguson
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 25, 2020 2:06 pm

wow, not ever?

_Jim
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 25, 2020 4:39 pm

re: “wow, not ever?”

Tactics to divert your ‘enemies’ attention and ‘hostile fire’ (sometimes even getting them to address points they would otherwise NEVER address!) are not “wrong”, they are tactics.

Simon
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 25, 2020 9:06 pm

“President Trump has not yet been wrong on a single issue”
Umm …. he was wrong when he said said Dorian was going to hit Alabama
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian%E2%80%93Alabama_controversy
And he was wrong when he said climate change was a hoax invented by the Chinese.
https://time.com/5622374/donald-trump-climate-change-hoax-event/
And wasn’t he wrong when he said windmills give you cancer
https://time.com/5649313/trump-wind-cancer-iowa/
Oh and he was wrong when he said vaccines cause autism
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/how-donald-trump-became-an-anti-vaccinationist-2019-9/amp/?r=US&IR=T
And didn’t he promote the Obama birth certificate myth?
https://qz.com/1140729/donald-trump-renews-birther-conspiracy-by-questioning-authenticity-of-barack-obamas-birth-certificate/

_Jim
Reply to  Simon
February 26, 2020 7:55 am

re: “Umm …. he was wrong when he said said Dorian was going to hit Alabama”

Idiot. I’ve seen the Alabama National Guard Tweet with their attached map.

This is manufactured insanity commonly called Fake News.

Done here.

David A
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 26, 2020 4:09 am

Yet Larry is astoundingly wrong here, and has not the courage to address the critique…

Larry said… ” the epidemic stabilized in roughly four weeks – probably due to China’s fast and large quarantines.”

Wow Larry, those are your words. Please defend them.
Here us what China has done…

China placed “potentially exposed” people into large public buildings with rows of beds right next to each other by the thousands. ( Estimated over 1.4 million) This is the Princess cruise ship on R naught steroids. No walls, common breathing air, large community restrooms – in short death traps, just as prisons, elderly homes, large apartment complexes where people are locked in are.

That is NOT quarantine, it is a death trap.
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-continues-with-fake-reporting-of-71-new-deaths,-508-new-infections-and-as-more-contradictory-cases-emerge-

Rod
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 26, 2020 9:25 am

“President Trump has not yet been wrong on a single issue.”

Oh, for God’s sake. Look, I like the man and think he’s doing a fantastic job, but now the next 40 or 50 comments are going to be totally off topic, plus you’re just plain wrong, wrong, wrong.

_Jim
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 26, 2020 2:13 pm

JUST for the record:

“Sharpie President? Alabama National Guard Mobilized for Hurricane Dorian”
By Tyler O’Neil September 6, 2019

https://pjmedia.com/trending/sharpie-president-alabama-national-guard-mobilized-for-hurricane-dorian/

_Jim
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 26, 2020 2:42 pm

re:

Simon February 25, 2020 at 9:06 pm

“President Trump has not yet been wrong on a single issue”
Umm …. he was wrong when he said said Dorian was going to hit Alabama

CNN calls out Alabama to be in the path:

“Watch: Trump Tweets Video of CNN Saying Alabama Was Under Threat From Dorian After CNN Said They Never Were”
https://www.redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2019/09/07/watch-trump-tweets-video-cnn-saying-alabama-threat-dorian-cnn-said-they-never-were/

Direct link to video:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1170089069105340416

Don’t gaslight me bro!!

Simon
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 26, 2020 3:16 pm

_Jim
If you want the full breakdown of the sharpie incident you can read about it here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian%E2%80%93Alabama_controversy
At best Trump was woefully out of date, at worst he was lying to cover is incompetent arse.

_Jim
Reply to  Simon
February 26, 2020 3:45 pm

re: “full breakdown of the sharpie incident ,,, wiki”

I posted VIDEO of the actual event above – I don’t need some below-average IQ poster here or on wiki to tell me what I saw!

I also posted a link to the AL national guard callup.

Don’t gaslight me bro!!

Now, get outa here!

Simon
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 26, 2020 7:24 pm

_Jim
So even if Trump was right about Alabama (which he wasn’t at the time he announced it, and then clearly tried to prove to world he was by drawing on a chart with a sharpie like a two year old) I take it you have no answer to the other “wrongs” I pointed out?

_Jim
Reply to  Simon
February 26, 2020 7:45 pm

re: “tried to prove to world …”

Get over it, boy. You’ll be better for it. Straining for gnats while swallowing whole camels is NO way to go through life. You’re likely TOO DUMB to understand that, or even realize where that came from.

People like you, literally, need to ‘get a life’ …

Simon
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 26, 2020 9:41 pm

_Jim
“People like you, literally, need to ‘get a life’ …”
You are the one who commented on my comment. Maybe a mirror and a new life is needed by you? Anyway if you can’t have a civil conversation without using words like “dumb” perhaps it is best I deal with the adults here.

NZ Willy
Reply to  J Mac
February 25, 2020 1:28 pm

Exactly, a pointless rip at Trump which red-flags the article & author. As other commenters have pointed out, Trump’s cuts are about combatting corruption.

Annie
Reply to  J Mac
February 25, 2020 3:00 pm

It is at that point, the demonstration of TDS Syndrome, that I stopped reading the article.
I seem also to remember that the WHO at first was very happy for international travel to continue; now we see outbreaks of the virus all over the place.

MarkW
Reply to  Annie
February 25, 2020 3:53 pm

I started just skimming the article when he riduculed anyone who didn’t accept the official Chinese numbers without question. When he went out of his way to take a swipe at Trump I gave up completely.
It really is sad when politics takes precedence over the facts.

ATheoK
Reply to  Annie
February 25, 2020 4:46 pm

Agreed! Annie and MarkW.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Annie
February 25, 2020 5:56 pm

I saw an interesting segment on the Tucker Carlson show just now about the head guy at the WHO.

It seems he is a closet communist back in Ethiopia and he wanted to appoint Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s former dictator as the WHO “Goodwill” ambassador.

And he wants to turn the WHO into the global supplier of healthcare for the world. Just what we need: More corrupt bureaucracy.

According to the guest, the WHO is totally corrupt and President Trump *should* be cutting their funding. Which is probably why he is cutting the funding.

You can probably catch a replay of Tucker’s show later tonight.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Annie
February 26, 2020 5:55 am

A little more information on the leader of the World Health Organization: It seems this man was head of Ethiopia’s Health Department before taking the job at the WHO, and while Health Minister for Ethiopia, he apparently covered up three separate Cholera epidemics in Ethiopia, which, it is claimed caused unnecessary loss of life because his coverups prevented timely care for people..

He doesn’t sound like the person we want directing our efforts to fight an epidemic.

Goldrider
Reply to  Annie
February 26, 2020 6:49 am

Why WOULDN’T the WHO want it to go global? The ensuing panic and worldwide economic depression would be their very best shot at crashing Pres. Trump’s re-election!
It should be obvious by now that the Leftists’ method is to SOW CHAOS by whatever method. The more anarchy, the easier it is for them to take over–“for your own good, dear.”

MarkW
Reply to  J Mac
February 25, 2020 3:50 pm

Larry does have a habit of assuming that all spending by the government (except for actual defense) is good and always results in the effects intended by the politicians.

He used to try and portray himself as being middle of the road politically.

Bob boder
Reply to  MarkW
February 25, 2020 5:43 pm

Agreed, though he should just realize they don’t need to spend any money they just need pass laws to achieve the desired result. Nancy Pelosi could end the problem tomorrow just outlaw the Corona virus, problem solved.

LdB
Reply to  MarkW
February 25, 2020 8:08 pm

If you are relying on the UN and WHO to save you from an outbreak you are a 3rd world country. The existence of the UN and WHO is largely irrelevant to developed nations they fund it basically help out 3rd world nations but unfortunately large portions of the the money are siphoned off in the bureaucracy.

Regardless of what Trump does the UN funding is going to change anyhow because China with it’s GDP has to pick up much more of the tab for the UN. They are now number 2 contributor to the UN having just passed Japan
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/China-passes-Japan-to-become-UN-s-No.-2-contributor

ATheoK
Reply to  J Mac
February 25, 2020 4:44 pm

Bingo J Mac!

michael hart
Reply to  J Mac
February 25, 2020 5:14 pm

+1, J Mac. It’s become increasingly obvious to me too.
And does he title himself as the editor of his own website?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Edward Dooner
February 26, 2020 3:29 am

yup your pharmas all rely on China for cheap excipients then then get made in India with their namebrands as well as the generics and the usa people pay obscene prices thinking its gotta be good cosits brand x and we trust them

Indias already running out of stocks so poop n propellors coming soon, your saline shortage happened whn the Haitian plant got wiped out in the storms
Heparins all from China
vit C is almost totally china made
ditto antibiotics painkillers etc etc
allof which are now in high demand

yarpos
Reply to  Gus
February 25, 2020 12:55 pm

Interesting that the author managed to insert a bit of TDS and even made the master disengager (relatively speaking) sound like a war monger. The WHO has served as a mouthpiece and number gatherer , its not clear how this event confirms they need a vast budget or if so why that has to come mostly from the US. The UN seems quite aligned with AGW, you believe or not. Over many decades now I have come to realise it is not a force for good, at least for the good of the average person.

Annie
Reply to  yarpos
February 25, 2020 3:02 pm

I totally distrust the WHO and other UN organisations.

Joe B
Reply to  Annie
February 25, 2020 5:13 pm

Annie

The mistrust towards the WHO is not only, sadly, understandable, the individuals who still give those jokers any credibility are, themselves, unworthy of any serious consideration.

john harmsworth
Reply to  yarpos
February 26, 2020 6:52 am

Virtually everything UN related is corrupt and bureaucratic. The orgaanization is A refuge for smart, educated people from the poorest countries of the world. Their educations get them very little at home but they can make Western salaries and travel perks with the UN. IT engages in constant conspiracy at every level to spend donor money. It’s like the Olympic Committee or NASA.
When GB the 1st asked NASA for a proposal to send men to Mars they came back with a $400B+ project that included a moon base and bigger, better space station. It’s purpose was to fund every single existing program while going to Mars as a side benefit. Musk will do it for less than a tenth of the cost and be prepared to stay there.
Th UN exists because people fear the lack of it.

holly elizabeth Birtwistle
Reply to  Gus
February 25, 2020 1:07 pm

100% agree Gus!

John in Oz
Reply to  Gus
February 25, 2020 1:40 pm

Isn’t Trump cutting the US contribution to world health organisations as this is a drain on the US?

He may consider these organisations are of great worth and usefulness but does not wish the burden of their costs to be heavily biassed to the US.

Bob boder
Reply to  John in Oz
February 25, 2020 3:36 pm

What percentage of medical advancement and innovation come from the US verses all the great achievements made by international groups like the UN and WHO? Larry’s statement is just stupid, rarely do international organizations acheive anything other than advance the political agenda of the international socialist movement, and the few times that it does the US always is the one actual doing to work anyway. The single best thing Trump can do for the rest of the world is pull the resources waisted in these organizations and bring it back to the US, at least until the political corruption is removed from these organizations.

Michael
Reply to  Gus
February 25, 2020 2:10 pm

Gus, so right. The US gives HALF the budget to the World Health Organization, so why? We pay approx. 2.4 billion to an organization with only 4.4 billion in total income. There is something wrong with this picture.

Van Doren
Reply to  Gus
February 25, 2020 2:33 pm

Only the House can provide or withdraw funding. Quite stupid to blame Trump for that.

KcTax
Reply to  Gus
February 26, 2020 3:12 am

Gus,
Agree. Remember, it was WHO who totally blew the handling of the ebola outbreak in Africa a few years ago.

Donna K. Becker
Reply to  Gus
February 26, 2020 10:05 am

Didn’t Trump just ask Congress for a $2.5 billion appropriation to address COVID-19?

_Jim
Reply to  Donna K. Becker
February 26, 2020 10:15 am

re: “Didn’t Trump just ask Congress for a $2.5 billion appropriation to address COVID-19?”

Depends where you heard it; the Dems through Chucky Schumer say something north of 3BB are required …

Reply to  _Jim
February 26, 2020 10:19 am

Re: “the Dems through Chucky Schumer say something north of 3BB are required …”

… without providing evidence.

_Jim
Reply to  sbwaters
February 26, 2020 10:25 am

re: ” … without providing evidence.”

Per SOP (standard operating procedure) of the dems (courtesy Prof. Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit):

2.5BB represents “insufficient opportunity for graft”

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Donna K. Becker
February 26, 2020 2:14 pm

He just asked for an additional 8.5 billion.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 26, 2020 3:19 pm

No matter what money figure Trump requested Shumer was going to one-up him and then claim Trump isn’t doing enough.

The sole focus of the Democrats during this potential crisis is to spin things to make Trump look as bad as possible. In other words: It’s Standard Operating Procedure for radical Democrats. They are worthless in a crisis, or any other time.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 26, 2020 5:52 pm

Agree.
Even when it comes to a potential disease pandemic, all they can think about is getting a political advantage.
The current crop of Democrat leaders and candidates are some of the most petty, self-important, and tribal people I can ever recall inhabiting the public sphere.
I think it is literally impossible for them to do anything for the country, or say anything at all, no matter how necessary it is to say it, if it has any chance of reflecting positively on President Trump.
At this point they shamelessly throw their own long-time constituents under the bus for the sake of political expediency, without a second thought.
How on Earth anyone could be considering Bernie Sanders for President, or senile Joe Biden, or a guy who has only ever been a Mayor…a bad one, of a tiny city…is far beyond my ken.
It is so ridiculous, words fail me.

February 25, 2020 10:09 am

Anyone played that game where the objective was to infect the whole world and kill 100%?

It was just a game, but some took it seriously, apparently. Or is this fulfillment of the Georgia Guidestones?

Enjoy my new article …

https://phzoe.wordpress.com/2020/02/25/deducing-geothermal/

john graves
February 25, 2020 10:11 am

Reliance upon data streaming sources from a controlled environment political entity such as PRC is fraught with difficulty. Add a sycophantic global organization like the WHO trying to submit to PRC’s every whim adds fuel to the disbelieve fire.
if the facts prove your hypothesis, bravo. I choose to wait and prepare.
Oh, let’s try to leave politics out of a scientific discussion. Unless Maximus was in the room, I cannot believe his presidential utterances. we should all just chill and prepare. hope for the best. prepare for something less.

_Jim
Reply to  john graves
February 25, 2020 2:33 pm

Capz. Pleaze use capz. I beg of you … then I promize not to uze ‘z’ in place of ‘s’.

February 25, 2020 10:17 am

“But as usual, Trump wants to reduce our defenses to anything other than war.”
Wow Larry, way to advertise your Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS). TDS seems to spread faster than COVID-19.
Trump is the least War Mongering President the US has had in a very long time (yes, even less than Obama). It was just announced that he is seeking increased funding for the CDC to prepare for any outbreaks of COVID-19 in the US. Open your mind, and you may see that Trump isn’t the evil the MSM tells you he is.

John Endicott
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
February 25, 2020 10:31 am

Jeff, the only cure for TDS is logic and reason. Unfortunately those are the very things that TDS sufferers seem immune to.

RockyRoad
Reply to  John Endicott
February 25, 2020 11:33 am

TDS is the only pandemic I’ve seen in my lifetime, and I remember Ike!

Sadly, I’m not sure there is a cure!

On second thought, Global Warming might be a prior pandemic, and for the same reason!

I find it rather comical that some complain about bringing politics into the discussion when it is obvious that the current strain of Global Warming is half politics, half religion, and practically zero science!

Just look at Greta Thunberg!

We might find that Global Warming was manufactured in some geo-weapons laboratory sponsored by the UN, or the Rothschilds, or some such– the real provenance is difficult to determine!

But let’s face it–this Global Warming pandemic has done more to destroy humans than perhaps the flu outbreak of 1917, in which I lost several ancestors!

And the worst part is that it has been weaponized and deployed on purpose, without a doubt!

_Jim
Reply to  RockyRoad
February 25, 2020 2:35 pm

Next pandemic exclamation points will be strictly rationed …

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  _Jim
February 25, 2020 2:59 pm

Yeah!
and caps!
!
🙂

holly elizabeth Birtwistle
Reply to  John Endicott
February 25, 2020 1:14 pm

100% John

Christopher Paino
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
February 25, 2020 11:14 am

Opinions are like arseholes.

Everybody is one.

SMC
Reply to  Christopher Paino
February 25, 2020 12:17 pm

And they all stink.

R.S. Brown
Reply to  SMC
February 25, 2020 4:47 pm

Some folks seem to have more than one, and others are just chock full of them.

Latitude
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
February 25, 2020 12:10 pm

Jeff….it’s more like global warming than ever Larry realizes…and he just proved it

KcTax
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
February 26, 2020 3:16 am

Jeff,
He is seeking more funding and, guess what, Schumer is grandstanding and playing politics about not granting the funding.
“Never let a crisis go to waste” is his motto, it seems.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
February 26, 2020 5:09 am

Jeff in Calgary – February 25, 2020 at 10:17 am

“But as usual, Trump wants to reduce our defenses to anything other than war.”
Wow Larry, way to advertise your Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS). TDS seems to spread faster than COVID-19.

Actually, Trump is committed to reduce spending on/for anything that is a “cesspool of corruption” or for programs that are not in the best interest of American citizens.

And the ones that complain and “badmouth” Trump for his actions …… are usually the ones that have a “vested intere$t” in the program(s) that Trump wants to eliminate.

The American citizens will be the big beneficiaries of Trump’s Border Wall, but guess who is fighting it tooth n’ nail, by hook or by crook.

Sunny
February 25, 2020 10:20 am

Good news, they need to stop letting people travel though from infected areas, as a Italian doctor went to Tenerife today, and he is infected, and now the hotel is on lock down… Chinese builders in Iran infected others, and they are saying the same thing about italy… Until it is controlled with vaccines only then should chinese nationals be allowed to travel.

John
Reply to  Sunny
February 25, 2020 10:44 am

The Italian doctor had been in the hotel for 6 days,not a new arrival, he came from the area of Italy that has been hardest hit. Don’t forget that there was a recent pilgrimage to Medina with thousands of people from around the world present, including from the far east.

Ron Long
February 25, 2020 10:21 am

Let’s hope that the news that the infection rate has plateaued is correct. One thing that still appears to be correct is that the death rate for corona virus is between 2% and 3%. It appears that SARs and MERs were around a 10% death rate. The only issue that is alarming with corona virus is that it is contagious before symptoms appear in an infected person.

yirgach
Reply to  Ron Long
February 25, 2020 12:21 pm

Someone should let Mr. Market in on the good news.
Currently down another 2.8% and counting…

While the human side sounds optimistic, the global economy is still not recovering.
This may unravel the trillions in derivatives which could cause a huge economic meltdown.
Let’s hope that the reinfection rate is a minor problem as people get back to work.

MarkW
Reply to  yirgach
February 25, 2020 3:57 pm

The market is worried about the effect on international trade that all the lockdowns are having.

David A
Reply to  Ron Long
February 26, 2020 4:21 am

Your death rate is wrongly calculated.

It us closer to 10 percent or more in China.
With exponential growth it will appear lower outside of China until the deaths catch up to the case load of 3 weeks prior.

Tom Abbott
February 25, 2020 10:28 am

From the article: “The 2019-nCoV virus”

How many names does this virus have?

Editor
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 25, 2020 10:59 am

Only one official name, COVID-19, as of Feb 12th, see https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

I still call it the Wuhan coronavirus.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Ric Werme
February 25, 2020 3:02 pm

That is the name of the disease, short for coronavirus disease 2019.
The virus is called SARS-CoV-2.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 25, 2020 6:14 pm

Ok, we have “The 2019-nCoV virus”; and SARS-CoV-2; and COVID-19.

I have learned that COVID-19 is the name of the disease that the SARS-CoV-2 virus causes (thanks to you Nicholas), but now we have “The 2019-nCoV virus” entering the discussion, so what is this, the name of the virus or the name of the disease?

I heard the head nurse today at a Nebraska facility where they are housing COVID-19 patients, and she called it “the COVID-19 “virus”!

There seems to be a lot of confusion out there and it’s not on my part this time. :).

February 25, 2020 10:29 am

Speaking of misinformation, here where Larry writes:
“But as usual, Trump wants to reduce our defenses to anything other than war. ”

Triggered much there Larry?

Larry seems not to understand that Trump just asked Congress for $2.5 appropriation to pay for Corona virus measures by the CDC DHS DOD etc. With it being an election year, no in Congress is going to object to that. And even by the biased media own admission, the Trump Admin’s responses to this has been commendable. The DoS,CDC, DoD, DHS, Surgeon General/PHS, all have been well coordinating the US quarantine, evacuation flights, and other preparedness and response actions, and coordination with other countries.

As for cutting funds to the UN, I’m all for it much of that. Most of the response to theCOVID-19 is a national level obligation, i.e. China paying for China, Japan for Japan’s expenses, SKorea paying for South Korean responses, etc. Just throwing money at the UN bureaucracy, where more than half the funds goes to support the bureaucracy itself (it very expensive Switzerland), is the Madness.

As for pandemics that might eliminate millions, Larry still doesn’t seem to get that the global Climate Change hustle is everybit the desire by many globalists-elitist billionaires and their lackies to bring about a pan-genocide on the world population with a death toll in the billions in the coming decades.

jabre
February 25, 2020 10:32 am

Here’s a direct link to the reports:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

How about just posting the link in the future rather than Larry’s hard sell.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  jabre
February 25, 2020 10:44 am

+10

michel
Reply to  jabre
February 25, 2020 11:22 am

They say they have done a full report on their recent visit to China – anyone know where that is?

J Mac
Reply to  jabre
February 25, 2020 1:10 pm

I second the motion.

Reply to  jabre
February 25, 2020 1:12 pm

I don’t believe a word Larry wrote – at least not yet!

Greg Cavanagh
Reply to  jabre
February 25, 2020 4:09 pm

This is a good site for statistics, with links to WHO documentation.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

KcTax
Reply to  jabre
February 26, 2020 3:19 am

+1!

MikeP
February 25, 2020 10:38 am

I dislike the use of strawman arguments … the biggest fear has not been whether or not the Coronavirus would spread to the four corners of China … the biggest fear has always been its getting loose in populations with little or no real medical care. While Africa is often presented as such a population, I’d submit that much of the Middle East fits as well … and it appears that the contagion has reached there. Given that Iran does not believe in quarantine as an option, can it be contained?

Also, given that the Coronavirus is prone to frequent mutations, having an endemic population is very scary for the rest of the world. Vaccines are a year or more away. Even if a perfect vaccine for the present strain were created, would it work for future mutant versions?

You seem to be ignoring these and other issues.

michel
Reply to  MikeP
February 25, 2020 11:25 am

Iran is reporting 12 deaths and about 60 cases. Either the cases are a lot higher or the death rate is hugely higher than elsewhere reported. Most likely the first.

And as you say they are not doing quarantine, and they are having large scale pilgrimages to the holy city. Guaranteed way of spreading it all through the Middle East.

As the Papal Nuncio said at the sack of Beziers, ‘slay all, the Lord will know his own’. Religious madness has no national or ethnic boundaries. Like Covid.

Jørgen F.
Reply to  michel
February 25, 2020 11:50 am

Italy is now 11 / 320 – it’s only South Korea casualties 10 / 970 that brings the numbers down outside China. Why?

Wim Röst
Reply to  Jørgen F.
February 25, 2020 1:27 pm

Jørgen F. “t’s only South Korea casualties 10 / 970 that brings the numbers down outside China. Why?”

South Korea very recently got a lot of new cases. It takes time to develop critical cases. The number of deaths will rise, I am afraid. Today’s rise in South Korea was 3 more deaths.

Wim Röst
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 9:25 pm

Per Feb. 26: South Korea 1,146 cases

The rapid development (from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries)
SOUTH KOREA OUTBREAK (Feb. 23 Updates):
Feb. 23: 602 cases
Feb. 22: 436 cases
Feb. 21: 209 cases
Feb. 20: 111 cases
Feb. 19: 58 cases
Feb. 18: 31 cases

David A
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 26, 2020 4:31 am

Win, exactly, once the case is symptomatic then death 8f it does occur is two weeks away on average. So as of the 24th they have about 1000 cases. On about March 8th divide the deaths into 1000. ( This is assuming all the case load is symptomatic. SK is reportedly doing tests on asymptomatic, which adds about 6 days to the mean mortality timeline.

Latitude
Reply to  michel
February 25, 2020 12:24 pm

Iran is lying through their teeth…

BREAKING: Iran’s deputy health minister tests positive for coronavirus; he had previously looked unwell during a press conference

film > https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232276183305400320

Latitude
Reply to  Latitude
February 25, 2020 12:46 pm

..and it just keeps getting better
Seems that the deputy health minister…also gave it to the guy standing next to him

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/matthewchampion/coronavirus-iran-deputy-health-minister?bftwnews#4ldqpgc

Scissor
Reply to  Latitude
February 25, 2020 3:25 pm

Is that Irony, Irany?

Fanakapan
Reply to  Latitude
February 25, 2020 5:28 pm

Inshallah they will say.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Latitude
February 26, 2020 3:46 am

see the second pic?
dude blessing with incense has his mask down
some education might be useful/

re Iran , well theyve already got serious issues with sanctions lack of meds etc probably why the sick chap is going to stay home, its probably safer..until or if he gets seriously ill and even then?
anyone handling his paperwork the podium etc are now at risk too, his office staff an the list goes on

holly elizabeth Birtwistle
Reply to  michel
February 25, 2020 1:19 pm

Michel: or Iran is lying. They are looking for sympathy and any kind of relief they can get while under punitive sanctions.

MarkW
Reply to  michel
February 25, 2020 4:07 pm

michel, both are possible. First off, only portions of Iran qualify as first world, most of it is still second and third world. So health care there is less than you will find in many other countries currently battling this virus.
Secondly, while not as closed as China, Iran is also a tightly controlled country, so the “official” numbers must be taken with a grain of salt.

David A
Reply to  MarkW
February 26, 2020 4:34 am

All of Iran’s neighbors did not close the boarders to and from Iran over 28 cases.

Joe B
Reply to  michel
February 25, 2020 5:18 pm

Michel

The mere fact that a number of the infected showing up in various Middle east countries are actually Iranians shows that the spread in Iran is FAR higher than “official” reports.

Latitude
Reply to  MikeP
February 25, 2020 12:13 pm

It’s popping up all over the world…even in people that have had no traceable exposure

why wouldn’t it pop up in Africa?….I would be surprised if it is no already there

Wim Röst
Reply to  Latitude
February 25, 2020 12:23 pm

There are surely indications that the virus arrived. See:

https://borkena.com/2020/02/07/ethiopia-to-quarantine-all-passengers-from-wuhan-china/

February 7, 2020

“Dr. Eba Abate, director of the institute, said the emergency response coordination center in the institute had received information about 29 people that are believed to have the virus.

Fourteen of them were quarantined as they had symptoms of the virus. Eleven samples were sent to South Africa for a laboratory test, and eight of them are reported negative.

Test results of three cases are not yet received, according to Dr, Eba Abate.

Five of the cases are Ethiopians, while the remaining three are Chinese- according to a report by Fana Broadcasting Corporate. It is unclear why samples from eleven people were sent while those who were quarantined were 14 in total.”

Latitude
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 12:26 pm

why didn’t they send 14?….because they only had 11 kits

Ljh
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 26, 2020 1:48 am

Addis Ababa is the main travel hub for Africa, via its new Chinese built airport which is the transit point for flights from all over Europe, the Middle East and China to the most obscure capitals of subSaharan countries struggling to provide safe water, sanitation and primary health care for their inhabitants and who are relying on China to build and maintain infrastructure. If you don’t test for the virus, you can’t find it!

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Latitude
February 25, 2020 2:20 pm

I find it strange that it has not yet been confirmed in Mexico.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
February 25, 2020 3:12 pm

No cases reported in any country south of the US, not in Mexico, Central America, South America, Caribbean…only one country in Africa is officially reported cases, that being Egypt.
None in Ireland, New Zealand, New Guinea, Eastern Europe…
Here is the map.
I suspect it is not up to datye, as it appears Switzerland is not highlighted and I think I read on CNBC they have at least one case.
Probably Austria as well.
But it is only a matter of time.
No doubt some countries have it and have not reported, are not aware, do not have it but soon will, etc.
At a certain point, given the number of people travelling hither and yon every day, it will be everywhere…just a matter of time once it escapes containment.
And that is once they can no longer track down the source of each case and quarantine all contacts.
It was probably too late by the time anyone knew anything about it at the end of December, early January.
Wuhan is simply too busy and crowded of a place, and it was spreading for a month minimum and probably twice that long or more.
I was surprised to learn every day at the beginning how many people in so many countries had just gotten back from Wuhan. I do not recall ever being aware of any such place prior to this.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 25, 2020 3:13 pm
MarkW
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 25, 2020 4:10 pm

Regarding that map.
Is Alaska and Hawaii no longer considered part of the US?

Didn’t I hear about a case in Hawaii a few weeks ago?

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
February 25, 2020 5:00 pm

Oh, I thought that was dust on my screen.
Like I said…it does not appear to be up to date.
I would look at it as a minimum sort of map.

KcTaz
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
February 26, 2020 3:41 am

Two or three, I forget which, Chinese nationals were just caught trying to illegally enter the US via Mexico.
You would be amazed, I suspect, at the number of Chinese and foreigners from Africa, China, Asia and the ME that they apprehend. I suspect it will be in Mexico soon. The Drug Cartels work with the Chinese to bring Fentanyl into the US and with Afghanies to bring Heroin in. This could well get very ugly.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  KcTaz
February 26, 2020 3:26 pm

Trump may have to put troops on the U.S. southern border.

Editor
Reply to  MikeP
February 25, 2020 6:57 pm

I think Bhutan reported six cases – in people coming from Iran. That’s huge compared to the reported cases in Iran. Either it’s a closely knit family group or Iran has a lot more cases than they realize.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  MikeP
February 26, 2020 3:39 am

I think they worked out the sars vaccine wont work on this variant already
was mention the sars vax recipients werent any better off and maybe worse?
no facts just what Ive read around the place

Bob F
February 25, 2020 10:41 am

Does this seem plausible?

The chinese keep changing the way they measure infections, and how can you know how many people are infected with 100’s millions forcibly quarantined in their apartments?

The markets don’t seem convinced.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Bob F
February 25, 2020 10:45 am

+20

Dale S
February 25, 2020 10:46 am

Your rant about cutting funding to WHO and the Pan-American Health Organization would be more convincing if your articles detailed what (aside from providing information to the public) the WHO is actually doing in the crisis and how much that actually costs — and had mentioned the “Pan-American Health Organization” at all. The idea that a bureaucracy’s budget can never be reduced has created massive governmental debt. If, as you seem to believe likely, WHO is eventually proved to have acted wisely and usefully in this crisis it will prove neither that they would be less effective in this role with a smaller budget, nor that the budget of this *international* organization is not drawing too much from the United States instead of other countries.

Money spent on the WHO may well be better-spent than money wasted on climate change mitigation; it at least has the potential to do something helpful. But the obvious problem with Trump’s budget is that it spends far more money than we actually have.

LdB
Reply to  Dale S
February 25, 2020 8:13 pm

It also doesn’t save a single person in the US (it is all about 3rd world). The only way it helps indirectly is hopefully stopping a person coming into the country with the infection. If the US border quarantine protocols break down and it gets loose on mainland US the presence or absence of the UN/WHO and it’s funding is of little significance.

KcTaz
Reply to  LdB
February 26, 2020 3:46 am

LdB
,
Or, if they walk across our southern border. Two Chinese nationals just detained by Border Patrol.

Vuk
February 25, 2020 10:46 am

There are unconfirmed reports that Chinese researchers have managed to activate body’s immunity system to ‘neutralise’ COVID-19.

Editor
Reply to  Vuk
February 25, 2020 10:50 am

There have been several reports like that from China, they appear designed to reassure the population.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Vuk
February 25, 2020 10:58 am

Yes, but not large scale practical. They are using plasma infusions from recovered patients, which by definition have developed Covid-19 antibodies. Problem is not enough recovered patients.

icisil
Reply to  Vuk
February 25, 2020 10:58 am

I’m pretty sure a healthy body knows quite well how to activate immunity. I think what we’re seeing in China is the result of endemic sub-optimal health for various reasons.

icisil
Reply to  icisil
February 25, 2020 11:03 am

As well as iatrogenic damage to patients health from toxic treatments

niceguy
Reply to  icisil
February 25, 2020 11:21 am

Like Tamiflu, which may have damaged or killed a lot more patients than those it saved (that is, if it saved anyone).

Reply to  icisil
February 25, 2020 1:45 pm

What we see in China data is men are more much likely (something like 2 to 1) than women to be in the 20% of progressing to pneumonia.

Some point to fact that this COVID-19 gender difference tracks with the higher smoking rates in Chinese men than women.

But alternative we also know from decades of HIV studies that women have a higher/stronger Type 1 interferon response to most viral infections. This is believed to be why untreated chronic HIV infection and destruction of CD4 T-cells tends to progress more rapidly in women than men. But in the case of an acutely infecting virus like COVID-19, the earlier, stronger type 1 interferon response may lessen the likelihood of progressing to the pneumonia stage with severe lung pathology and mortality.

Scissor
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 25, 2020 3:37 pm

I’d like to investigate a scientific hypothesis. What if a Chinese man were to put on women’s panties, bra and a dress. Would his likelihood to come down with the pneumonia drop?

icisil
Reply to  Scissor
February 25, 2020 4:10 pm

I think I’ve found the man onsite to run your trial. He’ll need your updated protocol, though.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1229082069403340800

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Scissor
February 25, 2020 5:04 pm

Only if he joins the women’s wrestling team at his high school.
comment image

Brandon
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
February 25, 2020 8:46 pm

Aren’t there more men than women in China due to the one child policy? I smell sampling bias…

Editor
February 25, 2020 10:49 am

I view information from the WHO with moderate skepticism. They get a fair amount of money from the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) and China has put a lot of money into Ethiopia, where Tedros Adhanom is from.

Read (I can’t) https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-health-organization-draws-flak-for-coronavirus-response-11581525207

Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5VGPYtbTk8 , but with adequate skepticism too. (Watch some of their other coronavirus reports too!)

Above all, don’t believe any numbers from China, I view their data with extreme skepticism.

Bill Parsons
Reply to  Ric Werme
February 25, 2020 12:28 pm

Where are you getting your numbers, Ric? As far as I know, all the numbers between November and late January were generated from Chinese sources. That includes the WHO’s and CDC’s numbers, which also came from the official reports out of China.

Now, or since mid-January, the occurrence of the virus in other countries can be monitored. I don’t see anything to suggest that the virus’s infectiousness or deadliness are any worse than the Chinese have been reporting. Not surprising, death tolls in other countries are less than China reports:

Cases / Deaths / Mortality

China: 77,666 / 2664 / 3%
S. Korea: 977 / 11/ 1%
Italy: 323 / 11 / 3%
Diamond Princess: 961 / 4 / .5%
Japan: 161 / 1 / .6%
Iran: 95 / 15 / 15%
Hong Kong: 85 / 2 / 2%

I don’t know how “We’re encouraged by the continued decline in cases in China…” qualifies for another “Blockbuster headline” by Mr. Kummer, but for whatever reasons, even banal Coronavirus news seems to command our attentions. Breathless financial reporters explaining the Coronavirus’s infection of the markets last night on News Hour.

Editor
Reply to  Bill Parsons
February 25, 2020 12:47 pm

The only numbers I bother to look at are those from the Johns Hopkins aggregate at https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Anecdotal and slightly better data and commentary on China’s numbers dissuaded me from saving things in a database. I don’t know if recent data is better than it was, but it’s certainly a lot lower from disturbing reports of crematoria running full time and the deaths that implies. Of course, those are highly speculative, but counting bodies burned instead of death certificates is simpler in many ways. It also avoids China’s practice of reporting the preexisting condition as the cause of death.

I hear China has a very low influenza death rate, I noticed a CDC article saying 92% or US flu deaths were among elderly with preexisting conditions. So I’ve pretty much given up on numbers.

BTW, your cases/deaths/mortality data is flawed, what you really want is cases/deaths/not-dead-yet to account for people domed to die.

You could do something with Cases – Deaths – Recovered to represent still sick with unknown outcome, but those numbers could be really poor quality even outside of China. I’ll pass.

Wim Röst
Reply to  Ric Werme
February 25, 2020 12:57 pm

The best actual data and background info I find here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Info about: Cases – Deaths – Countries – Death Rate – Incubation – Age – Symptoms – Opinions – News

Bill Parsons
Reply to  Ric Werme
February 25, 2020 2:05 pm

Confirmed Cases Reported (Feb 25):

Johns Hopkins – 77,660
[Data sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC and DXY.]

*Beijinger (Blog) -77,785
[Data Source: Chinese State Media]

Again, as far as I can tell, Johns Hopkins deriving its news (through WHO and CDC) from Chinese state media.

I agree that the number of infections and deaths will inevitably rise.

* https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/01/22/coronavirus-count-in-beijing

Brandon
Reply to  Bill Parsons
February 25, 2020 8:50 pm

China lies.

There are several reasons a first world city like Hong Kong would fare better than mainland China – better sanitation, better hygiene practices, better healthcare system, better educated populace per capita…

It’s early days in SK and Italy, and we have no idea what’s going on inside Iran.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Bill Parsons
February 26, 2020 3:56 am

reports that chinas leaders are planning 19? more fastbuilt hospitals sorta precludes a drop?
and the HUGE UNrecovered numbers?
many hospitalised for well over 5 weeks assuming the early ones are in the recovered numbers of just around 21k or so

recovered and able to resume life/work might also be a question needs an answer too?

ResourceGuy
February 25, 2020 10:49 am

Excerpt from WSJ

By Chun Han Wong
Feb. 25, 2020

To shape public opinion about China’s response to the deadly new coronavirus, Beijing has turned to a trusted strategy: deploying a massive propaganda campaign and suppressing critical news coverage.

But with public cynicism running high over an epidemic that has killed more than 2,600 people, some of the propaganda is backfiring, as people question the lack of critical reporting in Chinese media and dismiss what they say are ham-handed attempts to create Communist Party heroes.

Even state media have acknowledged failings in their approach. Justice Web, a news arm of China’s prosecutor-general’s office, lamented the lack of an independent streak in Chinese media, which it said was instead filled with formulaic stories that emphasize only the positive aspects of the government response.

“At a critical juncture in the battle against the epidemic, the drummers and buglers are playing discordant notes, severely damaging the credibility of the media,” said a commentary published last week on Justice Web’s Weibo microblog. Encountering information they dislike, journalists “automatically filter it and block their ears, reporting only good news and not the bad.”

Rob_Dawg
February 25, 2020 10:51 am

Sorry Charles. We don’t even share common data. If it takes ~18 days from diagnosis to (declared) recovery then the fatality rate is much higher than suggested by your conclusions.

The distribution within China as shown on the JHU map contradicts any claim of containment or plateau.

We are only now learning of cases of recidivism.

I merely understand virology enough to comprehend but nowhere near enough to assert an opinion. That said, I do know enough of statistics to see that right now the reporting is diverging from the reality. Charles, you are relying upon “expert” projections that make climate emergency claims look scientific.

Latitude
Reply to  Rob_Dawg
February 25, 2020 12:06 pm

Ctm just posted it….Trump is occupying my head for free Larry wrote it

Reposted from the Fabius Maximus Blog
By Larry Kummer, Editor / 25 February 2020

Stevek
February 25, 2020 10:53 am

When information is limited I trust what markets are saying. Markets down big today and treasury yields going lower. When I see full market rebound I’ll believe things are okay.

_Jim
Reply to  Stevek
February 25, 2020 2:51 pm

Markets are inherently irrational, otherwise, LTCM would still be in business.

Long-Term Capital Management – The most famous hedge fund collapse involved Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). The fund was founded in 1994 by John Meriwether (of Salomon Brothers fame) and its principal players included two Nobel Memorial Prize-winning economists and a bevy of renowned financial services wizards. LTCM began trading with more than $1 billion of investor capital, attracting investors with the promise of an arbitrage strategy that could take advantage of temporary changes in market behavior and, theoretically, reduce the risk level to zero.

Brandon
Reply to  Stevek
February 25, 2020 8:53 pm

No.

No, no, no. Fed scaled down repo operations last week. Fear + less liquidity + massively high valuations = mean reversion. Markets could skyrocket tomorrow if the fed pumps a few hundred billion into the system. Using the “markets” as a signal should be a discarded notion. We should have stopped using the market as a barometer for anything meaningful since the debacle that was 2009.

February 25, 2020 10:56 am

Why have such viruses only appeared since we had the genetic technology to identify them yet we’ve had worldwide travel for 70 years?

Matthew Schilling
Reply to  son of mulder
February 25, 2020 1:21 pm

Communist China hasn’t been a huge presence in international trade for 70 years. Their fingerprints on international trade 50 years ago probably numbered about the same as Kenya’s. Of course, it’s grown greatly since then.
Also, doesn’t each year’s iteration of the flu originate in Communist China? I could be wrong about that…

Scissor
Reply to  Matthew Schilling
February 25, 2020 3:41 pm

I’ve heard that some enterprising medical researchers would, after a study was completed, sell animals for human consumption.

ACParker
February 25, 2020 10:56 am
ren
February 25, 2020 11:12 am

Coronavirus Cases:
80,419
view by country
Deaths:
2,711
Recovered:
27,909
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Sal Minella
Reply to  ren
February 25, 2020 1:38 pm

US flu cases:
26,000,000
Deaths:
16,000

Analitik
Reply to  Sal Minella
February 25, 2020 3:35 pm

That’s over a year with symptoms that are readily diagnosed before becoming highly infectious.

How long has Covid-19 been around so far, starting from a single infection source?

Sal Minella
Reply to  Analitik
February 25, 2020 3:53 pm

Us COVID-19 cases:
55
Deaths:
0

Sal Minella
Reply to  Analitik
February 25, 2020 3:59 pm

2019 US E Coli vases:
265,000
Deaths:
100

Sal Minella
Reply to  Analitik
February 25, 2020 4:02 pm

2019 US Salmonella cases:
1,350.000
Deaths:
430

Sal Minella
Reply to  Analitik
February 25, 2020 4:06 pm

2019 US stabbing cases:
9,356
Deaths:
1,543

Sal Minella
Reply to  Analitik
February 25, 2020 4:13 pm

2019 US auto accidents:
ca 5 million
Deaths:
36,000

Understand the point yet?

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  Sal Minella
February 26, 2020 12:59 am

Yes we get it Sal. But do you get this: all those statistics are the stable background. None of those causes of death they relate to are in an exponential growth phase. Unfettered Covad-19 is and that makes all the difference.

Brandon
Reply to  Sal Minella
February 25, 2020 8:57 pm

So… three orders of magnitude difference in the numerator and one order magnitude difference in the denominator. Are TRYING to scare the s*** out of everyone?

The COVID numbers are suspect to complete BS until we get a meaningful sample size population in a western nation. Italy might be the barometer.

David A
Reply to  ren
February 26, 2020 4:44 am

10 percent mortality then.

David A
Reply to  David A
February 26, 2020 4:46 am

In China

Richard M
Reply to  David A
February 26, 2020 9:44 am

David A, good point. Also looks like mortality of older folks is much higher. Once reported near 50%. This could be a huge boon to China’s economic future. I know, sounds very cold. But it’s true.

China is facing a huge problem supporting their aging population. It was assumed this would drag down their growth for years. Now, what if you have 140,000,000 deaths with half of those the very people that would drag down the economy? Add in high numbers of smokers and immune system problems in the rest of the population of deaths. You are left with a much healthier base population.

Sure, there would be an initial hit but long term it would probably be a big plus for the Chinese economy.

Justin Burch
February 25, 2020 11:14 am

Hm, color me skeptical. Cases are still rising in China so it is too soon to be calling victory. The latest news about the spread in Europe is equally scary. Also China shut everything down for weeks so we peons have to be ready to be locked down in our homes for weeks without a chance to get out for groceries just in case the Chinese solution is applied to us. Other experts out there including people like heads of the government organizations are making alarming noises about “when not if”. As for Trump, the US military has already activated their pandemic preparedness and the CDC test kits are already being distributed to states. Trump is not interested in saving the world nor does he trust the bureaucrats associated with the UN. Trump is interested in protecting Americans and the CDC has always been better than the WHO just as the US military has always been better than any UN peacekeepers. I can’t say I’m surprised at hearing someone blaming Trump though.

ren
Reply to  Justin Burch
February 25, 2020 11:18 am

“Coronavirus: Wuhan to quarantine all cured patients for 14 days after some test positive again
Recovered and discharged people were sent to designated centres from Saturday onwards
Decision follows several instances in which recovered patients were found to be still carrying the virus and able to infect others.”

niceguy
Reply to  Justin Burch
February 25, 2020 11:29 am

That’s like stating that the US army is better than no army at all doing nothing at all. Not a very strong statement!

(And the CDC is as stupidly vaxxer as WHO.)

icisil
Reply to  niceguy
February 25, 2020 11:36 am

The CDC has over 50 vaccine and vaccine-related patents… and authors the US vaccination schedule. Can anyone see a problem here?

Scissor
Reply to  icisil
February 25, 2020 3:44 pm

One patent strategy is to patent before someone else does so that the invention can be freely used.

MarkW
Reply to  icisil
February 25, 2020 4:23 pm

Do you have any evidence that the CDC is profiting from these vaccines? Or is that just your paranoia getting the better of you again?

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
February 25, 2020 7:03 pm

After reading that “report” all I can say is, so much paranoia, so little perspective and actual facts. Even Skeptical Science does a better job of pretending to be open minded.

_Jim
Reply to  icisil
February 25, 2020 6:50 pm

re: “Can anyone see a problem here?”

Are medically or properly credentialed individuals NOT getting named to boards? I mean, are various “Hunter Bidens” getting named to advisory board positions instead of someone with the proper knowledge and background?

icisil
Reply to  _Jim
February 26, 2020 1:45 am

“I am a co-holder of a patent for a (rotavirus) vaccine. If this vaccine were to become a routinely recommended vaccine, I would make money off of that,” Offit said. “When I review safety data, am I biased? That answer is really easy: absolutely not.”CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices Member Dr. Paul Offit

MarkW
Reply to  niceguy
February 25, 2020 4:22 pm

Vaccines are one of the miracles of modern medicine.
Millions have been saved thanks to them and when a solution is found to the Wuhan virus, it will be a vaccine.

Brandon
Reply to  MarkW
February 25, 2020 8:59 pm

^^this

_Jim
Reply to  Justin Burch
February 25, 2020 2:54 pm

re: ” “when not if” ”

Overblown; we’ve had ‘run-ups’ like this with SARS, bird-flu.

MarkW
Reply to  Justin Burch
February 25, 2020 4:20 pm

One of the Democrat presidential candidates was yelling about Trump not having a plan.

As if a new plan is needed. The military and medical authorities have put together plans for dealing with infectious diseases years ago, and they even conduct exercises every few years to make sure everyone knows what to do in case the plan has to be put in action.

From what I have read, while the plans are not activated, those who need to implement the plans have all been notified to be ready in case such a step becomes necessary.

PS: When did we start relying on politicians to come up with medical response plans?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  MarkW
February 25, 2020 7:02 pm

Trump’s putting tariffs on China during trade negotiations has had beneficial effects directly related to this virus outbreak. Trump’s tariffs have caused many manufacturers in China to either move part or all of their operations back to the U.S., or move them to places like Vietnam where there were no Trump tariffs.

This has shortened U.S. supply chains (although we have a long way to go) and will help the U.S. economy weather this virus storm.

If it is as infectious as it appears, then what’s the point of confining people to cities? We just have to go about our business and let the chips fall where they may because the whole population will be exposed eventually. We should do everything we can to help the situation but locking down cities is not one of them, this will be counterproductive, and will not delay the spread of the virus enough to justifiy putting the whole nation on hold for an unknown period of time. A quarantine would be worse than the disease.

I guess they have to try to contain it first, though. Europe and the Middle East will be instructive to the U.S. because it looks like they will have to deal with it before the U.S. Let’s see if they have any success in isolating the virus.

Earthling2
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 25, 2020 9:56 pm

The cat is already out of the bag, and if the majority don’t even show any serious symptoms, then we really don’t know how far and wide this has already spread. Ruining the economy will just be the main attraction if we allow ourselves to panic. It also means that maybe for the majority it is not going to be any worse than a bad cold or a bad flu. But for me, if I catch this, all I can say is that I have had a good life and the young will carry on.

This also has to be a wake up call to the West to keep our vital manufacturing and supply lines here at home, and if it costs more, then so be it. Especially essential things like drugs and medicine. Trump is right about this and is vindicated as we speak. The Chinaifcation of the world is another issue that needs addressing, especially the economic/militant assault of Red China on the West and the rest of the world in what they do outside their borders such as the South China Sea or stealing our high tech. Much of it was our own fault, since Nixon to Obama. But this could also topple the CPC and a revolution in China could replace it and who knows what comes next, which could be worse. But I would think major changes are coming as a result of this, everywhere around the world. May we live in ‘intersting times’, as they say in China.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Earthling2
February 26, 2020 6:06 am

“It also means that maybe for the majority it is not going to be any worse than a bad cold or a bad flu. But for me, if I catch this, all I can say is that I have had a good life and the young will carry on. ”

I agree with that. Rather than mass quarantines, we should focus on the most vulnerable people in our society to this virus, the old and those with serious health problems. Those are the people who would need to be isolated from the outside world for a time, giving us time to develop some methods to fix this situation if possible.

President Trump is going to address the nation tonight about the virus at 5pm CST.

ResourceGuy
February 25, 2020 11:15 am

It helps that this is a non affiliated virus with no advocacy groups supporting it.

RockyRoad
Reply to  ResourceGuy
February 25, 2020 11:49 am

The Marxist Media in the US is jumping all over it!

The only worse situation is if it had originated in Russia!

ozspeaksup
Reply to  ResourceGuy
February 26, 2020 4:07 am

I always thought the swineflu pandemic was allowed to go through so fast was the pharmas desire to sell the near useless antivirals
they sure did well
the recipients less so

February 25, 2020 11:18 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAyjkaFYnzE&list=PLEw9x0MHNcZQFzdbggBn7sC49v0qD3q3Z

Survivors, TV Series in the UK from 1975. Focusses on starting the recovery from a global contagion with very high mortality. Hokum but thought provoking at the time.

PaulH
February 25, 2020 11:22 am

I sure hope the news of the decline/containment is accurate. It would be of great comfort to know that the measures are working, or at least helping.

Editor
Reply to  PaulH
February 25, 2020 11:28 am

Decline of what? How can the number of case/deaths/recoveries fall?

Number of infected are not available, except from countries with isolate cases.

PaulH
Reply to  Ric Werme
February 25, 2020 12:23 pm

I meant to say a decline in acceleration of new cases. Cold comfort, I know, but some positive news would be a relief.

Brandon
Reply to  PaulH
February 25, 2020 9:03 pm

Let them resume operations at 100% of prior capacity. Those case rates will leap right on back up there.

Not that we’d hear anything about it.

Bill Parsons
Reply to  Ric Werme
February 25, 2020 1:13 pm

They can fall because China went on virtual lockdown, risking its economy and shaving points off its gdp to introduce the largest quarantine in human history. I don’t know why they did this, but I know that they did it. Two weeks ago in Beijing, with only a few cases reported, they shut the city down, turning back travellers from all the surrounding cities. The streets were barren. My daughter, who teaches school there, left her campus to get food. When she returned, an over-zealous security guard would not re-admit her till a school official had identified her. Masks throughout China were mandated. Work-places, restaurants, hotels, airlines… closed.

In Beijing, as of today, there have been only four mortalities from 400 reported cases (1%). And nine of Beijing’s 16 districts have reported no new cases in over 10 days. Cases can fall because Shi Jinping, with the iron fist of the state behind him, can make them fall.

Brandon
Reply to  Bill Parsons
February 25, 2020 9:06 pm

One vlogger from UK (Dr John Campbell) read a letter TODAY that says Beijing is still on total lockdown. Apartment buildings have physical barricades in front of them. All are guarded by party personnel.

That would be a near apocalyptic scene in, say, NYC.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Brandon
February 25, 2020 9:27 pm

Not total lockdown. jesus.

FFS, I love Campbell , but everyone at my office is back to work except me.
No food delivery allowed at the building
I am stuck in South Korea.

at your beijing apartment, if they choose to, they will have a guard to take your temperature.
At some apartments they give you a hall pass to come and go. No visitors.
Some places let you come and go as you please.

Hotels have various rules. Some quarantine you, others dont.

Currently 7 types of people are exempted from quartantine.

you want a list ask me.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Brandon
February 25, 2020 9:31 pm
Brandon
Reply to  Brandon
February 26, 2020 5:02 pm

@steven mosher – good to hear and thank you for sharing! Too much misinformation circulating about this right now.

David A
Reply to  Bill Parsons
February 26, 2020 4:51 am

China’s quarrantines are death traps…
China placed “potentially exposed” people into large public buildings with rows of beds right next to each other by the thousands. ( Estimated over 1.4 million) This is the Princess cruise ship on R naught steroids. No walls, common breathing air, large community restrooms – in short death traps, just as prisons, elderly homes, large apartment complexes, where people are locked in are.

That is NOT quarantine, it is a death trap.
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-continues-with-fake-reporting-of-71-new-deaths,-508-new-infections-and-as-more-contradictory-cases-emerge-

ren
Reply to  PaulH
February 25, 2020 11:29 am

This is not possible with an infection as easy as a normal runny nose.

ren
February 25, 2020 11:25 am

As of 24:00 on Feb 24, the National Health Commission had received 77,658 reports of confirmed cases and 2,663 deaths in 31 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, and in all 27,323 patients had been cured and discharged from hospital. There still remained 47,672 confirmed cases (including 9,126 in serious condition) and 2,824 suspected cases. So far, 641,742 people have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients. 87,902 are now under medical observation.
http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/25/c_76890.htm

Michael Carter
February 25, 2020 11:26 am

Will this virus persist throughout the northern hemisphere during its coming summer? Will air conditioners assist this survival?

Should the virus persist another 3 months (highly likely) the Sth Hemisphere has a big problem just around the corner. A high proportion of the public have at least one cold/yr – mostly during winter months. The moment one gets a sniffle it will be off to the doctor where there will have to be tests. Our NZ system cannot possibly cope. The stupid and unpopular policy of ramping up economic growth through immigration has already stretched our health service to the limit. What of urgent cases of other ailments? They still need care.

The real positive outcome from this is the imposed realisation that nature rules and that issues like climate hysteria are just a symptom of a spoiled decadent society.

I have long longed for a global wake-up call to bring society back to what really matters. Maybe then the woke-sickness pandemic will be put to bed.

M

Brandon
Reply to  Michael Carter
February 25, 2020 9:08 pm

I read somewhere in all of my reading on this subject that influenza transmits year round in the equatorial belt, with seasonal variation aligning to wet vs dry conditions irrespective of temperature.

YMMV

DocSiders
February 25, 2020 11:39 am

Warmer Northern Hemisphere weather will significantly dampen transmission rates over the next 3 weeks as Winter ends. The 0.39 degrees of warming the last 3 decades will reduce the transmission and death rates for all influenza strains by several thousand in the US (via Fall and Spring Flu Season truncations).

This Corona Virus is not easily transmitted via “airborne” vectors, and it is O2 labile. So the more folks spend outside the faster the contagion rates will fall off.

Joel Heinrich
February 25, 2020 11:44 am

how many tests have been done three weeks ago? how many tests have benn done yesterday? who did it? how did they get to the suspected cases?

BlueCat57
February 25, 2020 11:45 am

“Epidemics are like wars in that truth is the first casualty.”

Here’s the problem, Larry, I do NOT believe YOU. I don’t know you. I haven’t tested your truthfulness.

I do KNOW that the Chinese government LIES. Frequently. And that there is absolutely NO way to verify a word that they report.

I do NOT trust W.H.O. or any other U.N. agency or organization.

In fact, based on recent events, I have very LITTLE trust in the American government.

So, if “Epidemics are like wars in that truth is the first casualty.”, then we need to start by NOT trusting a word you or the Fabius Maximus Blog report.

On the flip-side, I have tested Alex Jones and those he has had on his shows and the articles he posts on his website. I’ll start by trusting the reporting of someone I HAVE tested.

Dan Bongino suggests a 24- to 72-hour wait to see how a story pans out. The Wuhan Corona Virus story has been going on since before December 2019. I think I’ll wait for a couple more months to see how it plays out.

We are unlikely to ever know the truth about the virus. We will learn a lot of facts, but like Seth Rich, all we will know is “that some people did something.”

_Jim
Reply to  BlueCat57
February 25, 2020 4:46 pm

By the grace of God, man, find a more reputable ‘source’ than PrisonPlanet and that ‘roid-rager Alex! His accuracy for Y2k was ZERO! His ‘FEMA internment camps’ faded like a honeymoon you-know-what! But nobody OLD ENOUGH to remember is around on the ‘boards’ to remind others about these big prediction failures.

Alex
Reply to  BlueCat57
February 25, 2020 11:22 pm

Well, of course I’ve been to China.
They have not only no CNN. Half of the internet is cut away. No even Google.
A month ago my Chinese students arrived. I asked them “what do you think about Greta Thunberg?”
They answered: “who?”

I am impressed by China economy. Yet, the power is monopolized by communists. It does not matter they are capitalistic. Communists always were always money hungry.

Rud Istvan
February 25, 2020 11:49 am

A longish comment, fact based as we know the ‘facts’ today.

Latency
The incubation period is not more than ten days (2-7 in most case reports, possible viral exposure titer related). Confirmed by the Italian situation. Means 14 day quarantine suffices.
Unlike SARS, Asymptomatic transmission during incubation is now very well established—Steve Walsh of UK (Singapore to French ski resort) case. Means travel fever screening is useless for containment.
There are anecdotal Chinese reports of of longer incubation times. Worrisome because in one case 5 people were infected yet the carrier NEVER (as reported by China late last week) developed symptoms—a Typhoid Mary situation cannot now be ruled out.

Infectivity.
Most models now settling in on Ro 2.5-3.5. SARS was 3. The Italian and South Korean experiences also suggests 3ish. That is high and only quarantine and later a vaccine will bring it down.

Lethality.
Newest estimates are 80% of cases begin resolving in about 10 days from symptom onset. 20% worsen significantly, and about 5% become critical.Deaths are within that subset. Without ICU, that 5% will die of lower respiratory viral pneumonia.
The numbers are still all over the map. Cannot trust China (low). Cannot trust Iran (high). Looking to Italy and using yesterday’s reports, 7/229 or about 3 percent dead even with ICU support; in Italy, all old and 5/7 with reported underlying comorbidity (cancer, diabetes, hypertension). So in developing world (Iran) and if ICU get overwhelmed elsewhere, 5% is a plausible mortality number from present information. This is half of SARS.

Treatments.
The clinical trial in China of remdesivir has commenced but there are no interim results yet.
Moderna crashed thru a potential vaccine targeting stable regions of the S protein, using their novel RNA platform approach (which so far in 9 years has NOT produced any approved drugsnor vaccines. But the target is only an educated guess. 500 vials have been provided NIH and phase one human testing (safety, antibodies) begins next month.

Outlook
Not as optimistic as Larry makes out. The Iran and Italian situations are the reasons.

In Iran it is fairly certain it started by human to human in Qom, which has about 700 Chinese seminarians plus several Chinese construction projects.

In Italy they have been unable to find patient zero in Lombardy. The first symptoms were in a 38 year old Unilever employee with no China human connections. There is a possibly he received a business air freight delivery from China with viable virus on the packaging, as Virion survival is typically something less than 4 days depending on surface, temperature, and other environment conditions, and airfreight is overnight.

icisil
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2020 12:20 pm

“In Italy they have been unable to find patient zero in Lombardy. The first symptoms were in a 38 year old Unilever employee with no China human connections.”

I’m starting to wonder if this isn’t a virus that already had wide distribution in the human population, and is only on the radar now because somebody was looking for something. Just because we test for and find it now doesn’t mean that it wasn’t there before, because we weren’t testing for it before. Now we test and find it everywhere because it was everywhere.

George Bernard Shaw once said, “the characteristic microbe of a disease might be a symptom instead of a cause”, which I find to be a fascinating perspective. As an example, most people, maybe everyone, has Candida yeast in their bodies. It doesn’t k!ll healthy people because their immune systems don’t let it. It can, however, k!ll immuno-compromised people. So when a person dies from Candida overgrowth, is the mortality really due to the microbe, or due to a deficient immune system? Remember, everyone is infected with Candida. So really the disease is an unhealthy immune system, and Candida overgrowth is a symptom of that.

So maybe what we’re seeing now is the result of sub-optimal health, and not some new pathogen that we never saw before because we weren’t looking for it.

Harry Davidson
Reply to  icisil
February 25, 2020 1:51 pm

Interesting. As you know I think there is something funny about it, and I have my favourite theory, but who knows?

Harry Davidson
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2020 1:49 pm

You wouldn’t need a direct contact in Italy. Couple sits down at a cafe table. The previous occupants were Chinese who were unknowingly infectious. They drank coffee, wine, and talked, spreading micro-droplets everywhere. The new couple pick a napkin from the dispenser and wipe their mouths, put their hands on the table and scratch their nose. That will do it. Italy has vast numbers of Chinese tourists.

holly elizabeth Birtwistle
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2020 1:54 pm

Rud, you are over-thinking this, and puting too much trust in reports. Stop trying to predict anything by speculating, the information is too inaccurate. Neither the Iran or Italian situations make sense, they are too unlike the other countries, so I suspect the information about those countries is incorrect.
What we do know, from COVID-19 infections in developed nations, is that it isn’t a very dangerous virus.

Wim Röst
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 25, 2020 2:04 pm

holly elizabeth Birtwistle: “What we do know, from COVID-19 infections in developed nations, is that it isn’t a very dangerous virus”

WR: Not a very dangerous virus? Italy: 11 dead out of 323 cases (yesterday 229) and still critical another 19, nearly all deaths from last week. Spreading TODAY to Germany, Spain (mainland and Canary Islands), Algeria, Austria, Switzerland, and to other parts of Italy.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 5:23 pm

Give her time.
The other day she said it was a nothingburger.
Today, it isn’t very dangerous.
Also we know that Italy is not a developed country, and that anything that does not fit preconceived notions should be discarded as making no sense.
Okay, maybe she will need a lot of time.

niceguy
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 26, 2020 5:30 pm

Childhood measles is ultra non dangerous (kills less than one over ten thousand) in these same countries, but any case of measles still almost causes a panic.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2020 2:32 pm

Rud
You said, “Means travel fever screening is useless for containment.” I think that “useless” is imprecise. Because of the high false-negative findings, a large number will slip through. However, the approach is removing some carriers (Along with a very small number of false-positives.) at the height of their symptoms. So, the approach isn’t “containing” the virus, but it is at least reducing the potential carriers and reducing the rate of expansion.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
February 26, 2020 4:15 am

one of the american health people on abc aus radio stated that screening at airports would maybe be about 50/50% useful many wont have a fever at that time

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2020 9:20 pm

“Lethality.
Newest estimates are 80% of cases begin resolving in about 10 days from symptom onset. 20% worsen significantly, and about 5% become critical.Deaths are within that subset. Without ICU, that 5% will die of lower respiratory viral pneumonia.
The numbers are still all over the map. Cannot trust China (low). Cannot trust Iran (high). Looking to Italy and using yesterday’s reports, 7/229 or about 3 percent dead even with ICU support; in Italy, all old and 5/7 with reported underlying comorbidity (cancer, diabetes, hypertension). So in developing world (Iran) and if ICU get overwhelmed elsewhere, 5% is a plausible mortality number from present information. This is half of SARS.”

https://nucleuswealth.com/articles/updated-coronavirus-statistics-cases-deaths-mortality-rate/

Wim Röst
Reply to  Steven Mosher
February 25, 2020 9:52 pm

Interesting link, many interesting graphics

David A
Reply to  Steven Mosher
February 26, 2020 5:04 am

The all old us because in Italy, like South Korea, the current dead vs case load is very early. This means those that died there, died very early in the illness. ( Elderly and pre-disposed to be vulnerable to this) S.K at about 1000 current cases, will not reach a mortality number for that many cases for at least two weeks. Italy, same thing.

The more exponential the growth, and the earlier in that growth pattern, the more misleading on the low side is the mortality numbers.

Alex
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 26, 2020 3:06 am

China health authorities in Guangzhou’s Liwan district are reporting clinically observed situations where (please click here to see report in Mandarin language) a quarantined family of family of six having been isolated for 30 days without any outside contact and were initially tested negative upon the start of their quarantine, started developing symptoms after 30 days

Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 11:52 am

Today in Europe we got new cases in Italy (various places), France, Austria, Switzerland, Kroatia, Spain (Barcelona and Tenerife), we saw a Dutch minister returning from Iran who has not been tested….., we saw people in quarantine in the hotel in Tenerife that think they can still be together at the swimming pool etc. etc.

The Dutch minister: “During the flight back we have consulted the company doctor and the RIVM (WR: the Dutch government institute for public health) and in consultation we decided that we normally can enter the Netherlands. The advice was not to get a test. When people don’t have any signs such a test makes no sense”, the minister said.

WR: People can spread the virus without showing any signs. People who visited Italy took back the virus to their own country. The same minister had contact with his colleague foreign minister in Iran who had contact with an Iranian administrator who probably was infected with the virus. https://nos.nl/liveblog/2324476-twee-coronagevallen-in-tirol-nederlanders-in-hotel-op-tenerife-in-quarantaine.html

We are still VERY naive about the virus. Exactly what we saw in the beginning in China BUT WE SHOULD HAVE LEARNED FROM CHINA, both from what has happened in Wuhan and from what has been an adequate reaction in the rest of the country (which has a surface area comparable to Europe).

Right now, everywhere in the world but surely in Europe we should:
• stop shaking hands
• stop giving hugs
• take all kind of hygienic measures
In all countries where we find new cases we should DIRECTLY stop unnecessary social contacts. We should:
• stop celebrating anniversaries
• stop visiting all kinds of social events, including weddings and funerals
• stop all sport events
• stop all other not strictly necessary events
• stop as much travelling as possible
• give the highest priority to isolation of everyone who has been in contact with infected persons
• project and prepare extra hospitals that are fast to build, isolating every patient apart
• speed up production for medical necessary items
• etc. etc.

No time to loose. China has shown the way how to react, Italy shows us what happens when you react ‘half’. If you want to control the virus you must be PROACTIVE and super straight.

I don’t like to be an alarmist. But I see the virus spreading rapidly through Europe. And I see our administrators reacting ‘half’ or even ‘not’. Which makes me very worried.

Wim Röst
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 12:48 pm

To be added (latest news): In the south of Germany a man who has been travelling to Milan in Italy tested positive.

On average it takes 5-7 days to show signs of the sickness.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 4:35 pm

You describe yourself why it is too late to stop it.
It is already spreading through communities.
No point is sweating it now.
Better to be one of the first infected, IMO.
A virus that spreads like this one, meaning it spreads like a cold or the flu, has one chance to be contained.
This cat is out of the bag.
Anyone who cannot see that is not paying attention.
Why does anyone think stock markets are dropping like they are.
The CDC and numerous health officials have said as much, when they say that a pandemic is probably only a matter of time.
It is only probable if someone thinks it will just go away all of a sudden.
In time it will become less virulent, but by then probably years will have passed.
Avoiding it will be like avoiding any other illness.
The good news is, it is unlikely the death toll will be additive to that of the flu.
The flu kills so many because of who it kills…very frail people who are one illness away from death.
This has been demonstrated to be true by epidemiological studies.

Wim Röst
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 1:04 pm

One more: 12 Kilometers from the Dutch/German frontier a German man tested positive. About 170 km from Amsterdam. It is getting close.
https://rp-online.de/nrw/staedte/duesseldorf/lungenerkrankung-erster-fall-von-corona-erkrankung-in-nordrhein-westfalen_aid-49191227

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 26, 2020 5:59 pm

It is in the US. Someone has tested positive in California with no known contacts with anyone who has been out of the country, etc.
I suspect that hundreds of people were in Wuhan and left days and maybe weeks prior to the disease being recognized.

Harry Davidson
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 1:34 pm

And,
1. Try to keep 2 metres space in public.
2. Avoid talking to strangers.
3. Cough into your elbow, not your hand, or a tissue or a handkerchief. You’ll get virus all over your hand when you dispose of it/put it away.
4. Avoid touching things when you are out.
5, Keep your hands off all handrails.
6. Don’t touch your face in a public place.
7. Wash your hands every hour and always when you come in from outside.
7. When you leave a public toilet, open the door with your sleeve or or your bag, not your hand.

Harry Davidson
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 1:42 pm

“When people don’t have any signs such a test makes no sense”. FFS. I can only hope that they know something I don’t (which would be in any way unusual).

holly elizabeth Birtwistle
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 2:10 pm

Wim, here in Canada, and in the U.S., COVID-19 isn’t very deadly, nor spreading. Why is that I wonder? We are not naive about this virus. It has proven, world-wide, neither to be spreading rapidly, nor deadly. Influenza is more of a threat, and kills more people, but we never hear numbers about influenza’s infection and death rate or other sensible comparisons from WHO or the MSM. Information from Italy and Iran seems at odds with what is happening in other countries. Both WHO and the MSM seem to want to exaggerate and promote irrational and unwarranted fear, and I’m not surprised. Back in the real world, this virus is not a serious threat.

Wim Röst
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 26, 2020 8:42 am

Coronavirus COVID-19 represents “a tremendous public health threat” says CDC

“We are not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet. But it is very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen.”

“This new virus represents a tremendous public health threat. We don’t yet have a vaccine for this novel virus nor do we have a medicine to treat it specifically.”

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid19-tremendous-public-health-threat-says-cdc-feb-21/

_Jim
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 26, 2020 8:54 am

re:

Coronavirus COVID-19 represents “a tremendous public health threat” says CDC

“We are not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet. But it is very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen.”

Did the emote in the head office write that? WHERE was she when I was affected by local contagion that took me a good month to recover from in the early 1990’s? Oh, no ‘internet’ (LIKE we have now) back then. Note also ‘weasel’ terms used in this phrase alone: “very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen”.

Emotes going to ’emote’; Does she look like an emote?

comment image

Wim Röst
Reply to  _Jim
February 26, 2020 9:07 am

A virus does not listen to emotions nor to opinions. A virus is very small and is difficult to control. In our interconnected world it is very difficult to keep it outside.

The German man that yesterday was found to be infected was recently celebrating carnaval.

We don’t control everything. So we can’t exclude everything. But I hope we can control enough. That is what I wish for every part of the world. But when we close our eyes for what could happen, the unwished surely will happen. So let’s stay awake.

_Jim
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 26, 2020 9:23 am

re: “A virus does not listen to emotions nor to … ”

Non-responsive to my question, which addresses office politics and PR moreso than the ‘technical’ issue of taming a virus; Continue on the technical aspect of this subject and we are on two separate ‘trains of thought’.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  holly elizabeth Birtwistle
February 26, 2020 6:19 pm

Dang Holly, your head is deep in the sand still, eh?
It is spreading.
It is a threat to as many as 2-3% of those who get it.
The economic damage is a threat to everyone.
Disrupting travel and commerce can all by itself lead to a recession.
Recessions can lead to politicians being voted out of office, homes losing value, people losing jobs, and an entire cascade of events.
You are leaving a few important words out of everything you have said.
Words such as “As far as I know”, and “So far”, and “At the present time”.
And people who read the news and keep abreast of world events and such hear all the time about how many die of the flu.
Also left out is why no one makes a giant big deal out of the large number of people who die of the flu: It kills mostly people who are old and frail and not well already, and typically the cause of death is listed as viral pneumonia.
In fact the CDC does not sperate out flu and pneumonia deaths in it statistics. They are listed as one number.
This one kills mostly old and already sick people as well.
Mostly.
Question: If the virus is all around the world spreading gradually here and there, how would anyone know, prior to someone getting sick enough to wind up in the hospital and getting tested?
Of course the answer is that there is no way to know until that happens.
And in every place that has happened, and people who have been in contact with the sick person are tested, it is found that many more have the illness but had no symptoms, mild symptoms, or thought they just had a cold or the flu.
It takes about a month for some people to go from the time of first exposure to the stage where they are very sick. And that seems to mostly be happening to people who are old.
So we have no idea how many young people are sick and spreading it, because they are not getting very sick.
But now someone just got it in California and no one knows how.
So…still think it is not spreading?
Let’s see how things look in a month.

Fanakapan
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 25, 2020 5:47 pm

Dutch Minister eh, should prove interesting given that Iranian .gov blokes are going down with the virus.

David A
Reply to  Wim Röst
February 26, 2020 5:10 am

” China has shown the way how to react”

Sorry but no.

China placed “potentially exposed” people into large public buildings with rows of beds right next to each other by the thousands. ( Estimated over 1.4 million) This is the Princess cruise ship on R naught steroids. No walls, common breathing air, large community restrooms – in short death traps, just as prisons, elderly homes, large apartment complexes, where people are locked in are.

That is NOT quarantine, it is a death trap.
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-continues-with-fake-reporting-of-71-new-deaths,-508-new-infections-and-as-more-contradictory-cases-emerge-

The early deaths in Italy and S.K are because in Italy, like South Korea, the current dead vs case load is very early. This means those that died there, died very early in the illness. ( Elderly and pre-disposed to be vulnerable to this) S.K at about 1000 current cases, will not reach a mortality number for that many cases for at least two weeks. Italy, same thing.

The more exponential the growth, and the earlier in that growth pattern, the more misleading on the low side is the mortality numbers.

jtom
February 25, 2020 11:55 am

The numbers from China are corrupt, as shown by the massive adjustments they have made. The 3000 cases in other countries don’t provide enough statistics to yield meaningful numbers. Japan has a low death rate, so far. Italy, moderate; Iran, painfully high.

Unless there are factors we do not yet understand (e.g., a genetic predisposition for higher death rates), this still poses a significant health risk to all non-industrialized countries. They cannot afford to be isolated from the rest of the world.

Finally, if it takes “fast and large quarantines” to stabilize the virus, good luck if NYC, London, Paris, et al, develop into hot zones. That’s not fear-mongering. That’s recognizing that it is far premature to declare victory, and complacency could come with a steep price tag.

Jørgen F.
Reply to  jtom
February 25, 2020 12:08 pm

It just wasn’t Ebola…

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=117310&page=1

“Duncan and Scott also note that efforts to quarantine the Black Death were successful. In the wake of the first outbreak, Europeans learned that quarantining infected families for 40 days was effective in stopping the spread. Such a measure would not have worked if the disease were transmitted by rats, the authors suggest, because rats do not observe quarantine”

“Duncan and Scott believe their theory of a viral cause for the Black Death is supported by the recent discovery of a mutated gene called CCR5 that is resistant to HIV/AIDS. It is estimated that approximately 10 percent to 18 percent of those of European descent carry the gene.”

Brandon
Reply to  jtom
February 25, 2020 9:18 pm

And what about mutation?

I side with the hope this thing will die down in the NH during spring and summer, giving us time to face it better prepared in the fall. More likely this is like H1N1 in that it stays with us. Hopefully, it will be like H1N1 in that we can develop a vaccine that doesn’t kill the vaccinated (as was the case for SARS in animal testing).

Perfecto
February 25, 2020 12:01 pm

“Epidemics are like wars in that truth is the first casualty.”

“It’s easy to follow the coronavirus story
The World Health Organization provides daily information, from highly technical information to news for the general public.”

Hmm.

Jay Johnson
February 25, 2020 12:04 pm

Propaganda is truth, half-truth, lies, and omissions in support of an agenda.

In the last decade to decade and a half, the powers that are roll out a new virus boogeyman about every 12 to 18 months. This one is overdue, but none the less, another virus boogeyman. The only difference this time is that there may actually be some kind of sickness going around China. Who knows?!

As for the propaganda, first, they were manufacturing the propaganda surrounding this virus boogeyman two and a half weeks prior to the “outbreak.” Because they use the same methods each time, it was apparent 2.5 weeks prior that they were cooking up another virus boogeyman. Second, and most revealing, South and Southeast Asia, with their many crowded and filthy cities and deepest connections to China, have suspiciously (omission) not been a focus of the propaganda surrounding the “outbreak.” India, especially. It most likely because of the latest tool to occupy the egg shaped office’s visit to India this week. Now that his visit is complete, expect India to soon start having “outbreaks” of the virus boogeyman.

Or put another way, the same people that put forth the lies of WNDs and “mobile launchers” in Iraq so as to launch a murderous war, and currently hold all of mankind hostage to annihilation by nuclear war, say we may all be doomed by another virus going around. Almost funny when one thinks about it.

“They lie about everything. Why would they lie about this?!”

February 25, 2020 12:06 pm

From zero hedge comments section: All of these factors combined look very, very bad.1. Patients that test negative are released with few symptoms then later lest positive.
2. Many tests are giving false negative results, and only come up positive after multiple tries.
3. Reports of patients having 3 week gestation periods where they have no symptoms but are infectious, when the quarantine is normally only for 2 weeks.
4. Italy has not been able to find their “patient zero” who initiated the infections in that country, meaning they are still out there, and the spread cannot be contained. They may be an asymptomatic “super-spreader”, those who are responsible for 80% of infections of others, but make up only 20% of the number of people who are infected.
5. Reports that the virus can live on surfaces for very long periods of time, perhaps 42 days.
6. Reports that only one person went onto that cruise ship infected, but hundreds of people were infected while aboard, even though the passengers were locked in their cabins, which probably meant that the virus spread through the ventilation system.
7. The virus kiIls 1 in every 33 people it infects, and sends nearly 1 in 5 to the ICU. Compare this with a typical flu virus, which kiIls about 1 in every 770 patients (going off the 2017-2018 numbers), and hospitalizes about 1 in every 55 (note that I said hospitalizes, not necessarily sending them to the ICU.
8. Each patient who gets infected will infect about 3 other people, compared with flu, where each infected patient infects 1.3 people on average.
9. The number of infections doubled over the past 11 days. At that rate, it would infect a billion people within the next 4-6 months. However, viruses usually slow down their rate of infection as time goes on, but not always.
10. Reports by a later withdrawn paper from India that the virus had HIV-like features on it which are not found on other coronavirus specimens, with the authors arguing that it was likely man-made. Though the paper was retracted, other reputable scientists have said that it cannot be ruled out that the virus is man-made.
11. The virus just happened to originate near China’s only level 4 bio-weapons lab that works with coronaviruses, in Wuhan.
12. More shockingly, a fact that seemingly cannot be coincidence, numerous scientists working at that bio-lab have been caught selling lab animals to the very same meat market where the virus is said to have originated. Some made millions of dollars doing so. The animals are slaughtered live in the market, with the blood spilled in the market. There is no way that just happened to be where they tracked the source of the virus to.
13. Immediately after the outbreak became official, China deployed their leading military bio-weapons officer to study the virus. That Major General in the PLA has historically worked with coronaviruses often, and also was deployed to “study” SARS.
14. Only the CDC can test for this virus.
15. If this virus spreads to Mexico, it will probably go un-detected and uncontrolled in Mexico for more than long enough to spread it all over the U.S. via illegal immigrants, and Mexico will refuse to inform us of their cases, to avoid the closing of the border.If the Chinese military causes hundreds of billions of dollars in damage to the European and North American economy, and it can be proven that they let this happen with sloppy containment protocols, and they get thousands or even millions of non-Chinese people kiIled, that Major General needs to be captured, arrested, indicted for thousands of cases