The Week That Was: 2019-10-12 (October 12, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Solar-Climate Variability – Svensmark Hypothesis: It its review of recent papers, CO2 Science discusses a study in Nature, Scientific Reports, of a linkage between multi-decade variability in rainfall in the Western Mediterranean and solar activity over the last thousand years. The authors use high-resolution speleothem records (stalagmites) from two caves in Morocco to create a statistical basis for measuring changing precipitation. The paper illustrates how messy observational data can be and how exceptional the data presented in the 2008 report by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) from a cave in Oman is. (pp 11-13)
The authors of the new paper had to identify three separate trends appearing in the data: 1) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); 2) the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and 3) the Vries-Suess 200-year solar cycle. All three effect climate patterns, including wind and rainfall patterns, in the Western Mediterranean, have severe socio-economic consequences. Speleothems provide high-resolution records of effective rainfall, the amount of precipitation that actually infiltrates the soil. This study is but one more that supports the 1997 hypothesis by Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen that linked galactic cosmic rays and global climate change. Changing activity of the sun (solar wind and magnetism) modify the high energy cosmic rays hitting the earth. An active sun with increased solar wind and magnetism slows down cosmic rays. Fewer high energy cosmic rays decrease the cloudiness of the globe. A dormant sun results in less solar wind and magnetism and greater high energy cosmic rays increasing the cloudiness.
The 2008 NIPCC report states:
“The demonstration of solar influence on climate is now overwhelming. One of the prize exhibits is seen in Figure 14 [Neff et al. 2001], which summarizes data obtained from a stalagmite from a cave in Oman. The carbon-14 variations are a clear indication of corresponding changes in galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which are modulated by variations in solar activity. The oxygen-18 values are proxies for a climate parameter, like temperature or precipitation, from a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The correlation extends well over 3,000 years, with amazingly detailed correspondence. The bottom graph shows the central 400 years expanded and is accurate on almost a yearly basis, making a cause-effect relationship very likely.
“The best explanation for these observations, and similar ones elsewhere, is that – as has long been recognized [Singer 1958] – GCR intensity is modulated by the strength of the solar wind and its magnetic field. More recently, a detailed mechanism whereby cosmic rays can affect cloudiness and therefore climate has been suggested and verified experimentally by Henrik Svensmark . More detailed work is to take place under the CLOUD project proposed by a group of scientists at CERN, the world’s largest particle accelerator.” (pp. 11 & 12)
CERN’s CLOUD experiments have reinforced the Svensmark Hypothesis. But those skeptical about the natural causes of climate change and the influence of high energy cosmic rays on cloudiness have insisted that the experiments do not directly support the Svensmark Hypothesis. Even though CERN is in the midst of a two-year upgrade, the CLOUD experiment has started another run that will last until the end of November. A press release from CERN states:
“The CLOUD experiment studies how ions produced by high-energy particles called cosmic rays affect aerosol particles, clouds and the climate. It uses a special cloud chamber and a beam of particles from the Proton Synchrotron to provide an artificial source of cosmic rays. For this run, however, the cosmic rays are instead natural high-energy particles from cosmic objects such as exploding stars.
“‘Cosmic rays, whether natural or artificial, leave a trail of ions in the chamber,’ explains CLOUD spokesperson Jasper Kirkby, ‘but the Proton Synchrotron provides cosmic rays that can be adjusted over the full range of ionisation rates occurring in the troposphere, which comprises the lowest ten kilometres of the atmosphere. That said, we can also make progress with the steady flux of natural cosmic rays that make it into our chamber, and this is what we’re doing now.’
“In its 10 years of operation, CLOUD has made several important discoveries on the vapours that form aerosol particles in the atmosphere and can seed clouds. Although most aerosol particle formation requires sulphuric acid, CLOUD has shown that aerosols can form purely from biogenic vapours emitted by trees, and that their formation rate is enhanced by cosmic rays by up to a factor 100.
“Most of CLOUD’s data runs are aerosol runs, in which aerosols form and grow inside the chamber under simulated conditions of sunlight and cosmic-ray ionisation. The run that has just started is of the ‘CLOUDy’ type, which studies the ice- and liquid-cloud-seeding properties of various aerosol species grown in the chamber, and direct effects of cosmic-ray ionisation on clouds.
“The present run uses the most comprehensive array of instruments ever assembled for CLOUDy experiments, including several instruments dedicated to measuring the ice- and liquid-cloud-seeding properties of aerosols over the full range of tropospheric temperatures. In addition, the CERN CLOUD team has built a novel generator of electrically charged cloud seeds to investigate the effects of charged aerosols on cloud formation and dynamics.
“‘Direct effects of cosmic-ray ionisation on the formation of fair-weather clouds are highly speculative and almost completely unexplored experimentally,’ says Kirkby. ‘So, this run could be the most boring we’ve ever done—or the most exciting! We won’t know until we try, but by the end of the CLOUD experiment, we want to be able to answer definitively whether cosmic rays affect clouds and the climate, and not leave any stone unturned.’”
If the experiment supports the Svensmark Hypothesis, then it will have more experimental support than the hypothesis that CO2 is the primary determinant of climate change, which has no experimental support. See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising? and Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC.
The Greenhouse Effect – Uncertainty: The difficulties in differentiating among the various possible causes for changes in precipitation in the Western Mediterranean discussed above are compounded many times in trying to estimate the impact of an enhanced greenhouse effect on temperatures from an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2). We now have Top of the Atmosphere (TOA) measurements of outgoing infrared radiation. Ideally, these data should provide the necessary support to one side of the controversy or the other: is increasing carbon dioxide causing dangerous global warming, or is it not causing dangerous warming? Understanding these measurements goes to the issue.
At best, surface temperature data indirectly may include the greenhouse effect. However, surface temperature data includes many human influences unrelated to CO2, such as the Urban Heat Island effect. In her blog, Jo Nova brings up a number of human influences on surface temperatures unrelated to CO2, including a change in the size of the Stevenson screens. Part of a standard weather station, these screens shelter meteorological instruments against precipitation and direct heat radiation while allowing air to circulate freely around the instruments. Changing the size in Australia to a smaller one may have, unintentionally, caused a sharp increase in recorded temperatures because the new screens do not buffer the instruments as well as larger ones.
A problem arising from simply using Top of the Atmosphere measurements are the magnitudes of the measurements. The procedure involves subtracting a very large number from another very large number, resulting in a small number. Any error in the two large numbers may result in a very large error in the small number. Thus, it must be recognized that no single approach from one set of data is without possible errors. Multiple approaches from multiple sets of data are preferred. See links under Measurement Issues — Surface
Younger Dryas: One of the most dramatic examples of abrupt climate change occurred when the warming trend coming out of the last major Ice Age was interrupted by a dramatic cooling about 12,800 years ago followed by a subsequent warming of about 10º C (18 º F) in just a few decades about 11,500 years ago. According to geologist Don Easterbrook writing in Watts Up With That in 2012:
“…Terrestrial plants and pollen indicate that arboreal forests were replaced by tundra vegetation during a cool climate. This cool period was named after the pale-yellow flower Dryas octopetella, an arctic wildflower typical of cold, open, Arctic environments. The Younger Dryas return to a cold, glacial climate was first considered to be a regional event restricted to Europe, but later studies have shown that it was a world-wide event. The problem became even more complicated when oxygen isotope data from ice cores in Antarctica and Greenland showed not only the Younger Dryas cooling, but several other shorter cooling/warming events, now known as Dansgaard-Oerscher events.
“The Younger Dryas is the longest and coldest of several very abrupt climatic changes that took place near the end of the late Pleistocene. Among these abrupt changes in climate were: (1) sudden global warming 14,500 years ago (Fig. 1) that sent the immense Pleistocene ice sheets into rapid retreat, (2) several episodes of climatic warming and cooling between ~14,400 and 12,800 years ago, (3) sudden cooling 12,800 years ago at the beginning of the Younger Dryas, and (4) ~11,500 years ago, abrupt climatic warming of up to 10º C in just a few decades. Perhaps the most precise record of late Pleistocene climate changes is found in the ice core stratigraphy of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP) and the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP). The GRIP ice core is especially important because the ages of the ice at various levels in the core has been determined by the counting down of annual layers in the ice, giving a very accurate chronolgoy, and climatic fluctuations have been determined by measurement of oxygen isotope ratios. Isotope data from the second GISP, GISP2, Greenland ice core suggests that Greenland was more than~10°C colder during the Younger Dryas and that the sudden warming of 10° ±4°C that ended the Younger Dryas occurred in only about 40 to 50. years.”
A number of hypotheses have been suggested for this event, including an impact by a meteorite or asteroid causing the cooling. Geologists recently discovered evidence of a “platinum spike” in a crater, called “Wonderkrater,” about 12,800 years ago in the Limpopo Province, north of Pretoria in South Africa. Meteorites are rich in platinum. Whether this discovery supports the meteorite hypothesis remains to be determined. However, the Younger Dryas event demonstrates the absurdity of calling recent warming “unprecedented.” See links under Changing Climate.
Additions and Corrections [TWTW Editorial]: The September 28 TWTW linked to the remarks by President Trump to the UN Event on Religious Freedom. Several readers inquired why was this in TWTW? The remarks included the statement:
“The United States is founded on the principle that our rights do not come from government; they come from God. This immortal truth is proclaimed in our Declaration of Independence and enshrined in the First Amendment to our Constitution’s Bill of Rights. Our Founders understood that no right is more fundamental to a peaceful, prosperous, and virtuous society than the right to follow one’s religious convictions.”
The division between the rights of the people, individual rights, and the powers of government is critical to the founding of the country, and often ignored or misunderstood. Several decades ago, a member of the US Commission on Civil Rights praised the constitution of the Soviet Union for the rights the government granted its public. Apparently, the Commissioner failed to read the section that stated that the rights were conditioned on the dutiful obedience of the laws of the Soviet Union. Individual rights have no such condition. However, the government has the powers to restrict rights upon following legal procedures.
The powers of government are few, defined, and limited. Individual rights are many undefined, and broad. When discussing the need for a Bill of Rights, James Madison, a principal author and promoter of the Constitution to replace the Articles of Confederation, thought a bill of Rights was not necessary because the rights were clearly understood and he feared that placing some in a Bill of Rights would unduly bring focus to those few articulated and limiting the others. Madison eventually agreed to a Bill of Rights, and 10 out of the 12 proposed amendments became the first amendments to the Constitution.
One fundamental right is the right of self-improvement, including community improvement. Following the spectacular 1893 Chicago World’s Fair where electric lights were used to decorate buildings, foundations, and power search lights, many cities were transformed by the miracle of light. Seeing their youth leaving for the “bright lights of the city” rural areas, primarily in the north, formed cooperatives and other organizations to provide electricity to their regions. This was long before the federal government became involved with projects such as the Tennessee Valley Authority and Boulder (Hoover) Dam. The right of self-improvement through the use of electricity, energy, needed no governmental approval. Energy use is a critical issue addressed in TWTW. See https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-united-nations-event-religious-freedom-new-york-ny/
California Blackout: The major regulated electrical utility in California, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), is in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which provides for reorganization to keep its business alive and pay creditors over time under supervision by a Federal bankruptcy judge. This is different than a Chapter 7 liquidation which involves the sale of a debtor’s nonexempt property and the distribution of the proceeds to creditors, often under the supervision of trustees appointed by the court. Under chapter 7, there is no requirement to file for a plan of reorganization.
According to reports, on October 8, Judge James Donoto of the US District Court for the Northern District of California held that PG & E no longer has the sole right to shape its reorganization. It must consider bondholders and those who have filed lawsuits for previous fires that may have been started by PG&E electrical lines. What will develop remains to be seen.
During this legal mess, this week, PG&E cut electricity off to about 800,000 customers, fearing additional fires from high winds in California. Needless to say, no one is particularly happy with the situation. One could only imagine what would be circumstances if the primary sources of power were only wind and solar, as envisioned by many politicians in California. See Article # 2 and links under California Dreaming, https://restructuring.primeclerk.com/pge/ and
Number of the Week: Up 4850% in 20 Years: Writing in Forbes, Jude Clemente quoted USGS director Jim Reilly as saying: “Watching our estimates for the Marcellus rise from 2 trillion, to 84 trillion, to 97 trillion in under 20 years demonstrates the effects American ingenuity and new technology can have.” That is up 48.5 times (4850%) in 20 years. See link under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
A new run of the CLOUD experiment examines the direct effect of cosmic rays on clouds
By Ana Lopes, CERN, Via Phys.org, Oct 10, 2019
How the Sun Affects Temperatures on Earth
Video, Conversations That Matter, with Stuart McNish, Via GWPF, Oct 6, 2019
German Skeptics Report On Risks Of Expressing Climate Views At FFF (Fridays for Future) Friday Strikes … “Bomb” Threat
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 5, 2019
Follow the mob
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The Next Climate Change: The Facts’ Book, — Towards a New Theory on Climate
By Jennifer Marohasy, Institute of Public Affairs, Via GWPF, Oct 5, 2019
Link to book, Climate Change: The Facts 2020
By Jennifer Marohasy, ed. Institute of Public Affairs, 2019
What if there is no Climate Emergency?
By Ed Hoskins His Blog, Accessed Oct 8, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
CMIP6 models overshoot: Charney sensitivity is not 4.1 K but < 1.4 K
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Oct 8, 2019
Serious Errors in IPCC Ocean Report Revealed
Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Oct 11, 2019
Link to letter to IPCC: Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte, IPCC Co-Chair, Working Group I, et al. From GWPF, Oct 11, 2019
The Ghost Forest of the Delmarva Peninsula… Because Climate Change
Guest geology by David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 11, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Debunking the ghost issue of ghost forests which have long been a characteristic of the Delmarva Peninsula. Also, note the increasing subsidence of land in the Norfolk/Newport Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (separated from the peninsula by the Chesapeake Bay). The major subsidence in the MSA is from groundwater extraction with major wells at West Point and Franklin Virginia.]
Letter to Telegraph
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 6, 2019
“There is a real danger of system instability and consequential widespread blackouts once non-synchronous generation exceeds around 30 per cent of total generation at any one time.”
[SEPP Comment: Real danger may start well below 30% of total generation.]
Alarmism Exposed: The entire world is warming faster than the entire planet
Video, WUWT, Oct 7, 2019
Modern Scientific Controversies Part 7: The Meat War
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Oct 10, 2019
Was Margaret Thatcher the First Climate Sceptics
By Christopher Booker, The Daily Telegraph, June 12, 2010, Via GWPF, Oct 8, 2019
The “Simple Physics” Slogan
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Interview of William van Wijngaarden,
Department of Physics and Astronomy, York University, Canada, April 16, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/videos/the-simple-physics-slogan/ — Text and Video
Defending the Orthodoxy
How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?
J. M. Gregory, T. Andrews, P. Ceppi, T. Mauritsen and M. J. Webb, Climate Dynamics, Oct 10, 2019
“…we evaluate the accuracy with which CO2 [‘effective climate sensitivity’ in K) effects can be estimated from climate change in the “historical” period (since about 1860).”
[SEPP Comment: History started in 1860? Why start there? There were no comprehensive global measurements until the satellite era, starting in 1979.]
My favourite Nobel prize: highlighting climate change science and awareness
By Liz Kalaugher, Physics World, Oct 7, 2019
“Teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg is firm favourite to win this year’s Peace Prize, which will be announced on Friday.”
[SEPP Comment The environment and energy editor at Physics World doesn’t understand the difference between physical reality and virtual reality.]
NYT: Allowing Free Speech is like Allowing Carbon Pollution
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 7, 2019
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Fritz Vahrenholt: Let’s Not Commit Economic Suicide
By Staff Hamburger Abendblatt, Via GWPF, Oct 8, 2019
How I changed my mind… about global warming
By Byron Sharp, Medium.com, Oct 6, 2019 [H/t Willie Soon]
The Problem with ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’
By Ferdinand Bardamu, American Thinker, Oct 4, 2019
IEA declines the Guardian’s invitation to delete books
By Andy Mayer, Institute for Economic Affairs, Oct 7, 2019 [H/t R.J. Smith]
I Am a Climate Researcher, and I Love Fossil Fuels
By Vijay Jayaraj, Master Resource, Oct 8, 2019
DOUGLAS MURRAY: Why do we listen to a bunch of anarchists who can’t even work a fire hose?
By Douglas Murray, Daily Mail, Oct 5, 2019
DOMINIC LAWSON: Why a horseshoe bat in Kent exposes the sheer folly of today’s mass eco-protests
By Dominic Lawson, Daily Mail, Oct 6, 2019
Extinction Rebellion Finally Subjected to Media Scrutiny
By Gaia Fawkes, His Blog, Oct 10, 2019
Andrew Neill Destroys XR’s Eco Wally
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 10, 2019
EU ministers fudge 2030 climate target lines
By Sam Morgan, EURACTIV.com, Oct 7, 2019
Change in US Administrations
President Trump Signs Executive Orders to Improve Use of Guidance Documents
By Myron Ebell, CEI, Oct 11, 2019
Problems in the Orthodoxy
FT: US Companies are Ignoring Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 7, 2019
German government accused of watering down climate bill
The German government has rejected claims that several elements of its proposed climate change law had been scaled back. Critics say the original bill was already too weak to allow Germany to reach global climate goals.
By Staff, DW, Oct 7, 2019
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
More Evidence Demonstrating No Direct Negative Impact of Elevated CO2 Concentrations on Human Health
Monsé, C/. Jettkant, B., Schramm, B.K.H., Broding, H.C., Knappe, M., Michl, M., Hoffmeyer, F., Sucher, K., Brüning, T. and Bünger, J. 2019. Effects of exposure to carbon dioxide in potash miners. Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology – Neuroscience and Respiration 42: 1-10. Oct 11, 2019
“In all, 93 miners were examined for the study. Each worked in the potash mines of the Werra-Fulda district in Hesse, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt in Germany for a minimum of two years. Each of the miners underwent medical examinations directly before and after underground shifts that subjected them to CO2 levels ranging from near-ambient to 15,000 ppm. Specific examinations included testing of thoracic and abdominal organs, laboratory analyses of blood, urine and lung function. Because of a varying CO2 exposure range from ambient to 15,000 ppm (as determined by monitoring the concentration around each miner), the authors categorized the CO2 exposure levels into one of three ranges: less than 1,000 ppm, 1,000 to 5,000 ppm and 5,000 to 15,000 ppm.”
“And so, as the air’s CO2 content continues to rise, it is extremely unlikely that there will be any negative direct health effects on humans, especially since the CO2 values measured in the study go far beyond the limit of ~1500 ppm that scientists think is possible if society utilized all of the currently-known fossil fuel reserves on the planet.”
CO2-induced Protein Declines are Far from Universal
Thompson, M., Gamage, D., Ratnasekera, D., Perera, A., Martin, A. and Seneweera, S. 2019. Effect of elevated carbon dioxide on plant biomass and grain protein concentration differs across bread, durum and synthetic hexaploid wheat genotypes. Journal of Cereal Science 87: 103-110. Oct 10, 2019
“The great CO2-induced nutrition scare will likely never occur in the agricultural industry, as it can be simply overcome by identifying plant genotypes that do not experience protein and other macro and micro-nutrient declines and then growing them. Cross breeding of different genotypes with different traits would further help to enhance both the quantity and quality of crop yields for society to take the best advantage of the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2. The truth be told, there is absolutely no compelling reason to be concerned about the future food nutritional security of the planet, unless the world goes mad and sticks its proverbial head in the sand by refusing to identify and grow those crop genotypes that will enhance both the quantity and quality of future yields.”
A Reduction in the Growth, Development and Fecundity of a Herbivorous Pest Under Elevated CO2
Shwetha, A.G.S., Ashoka, J., Nadagoud, S. and Kuchnoor, P.H. 2019. Effect of elevated CO2 and temperature on biochemistry of groundnut and in turn its effect on development of leaf eating caterpillar, Spodoptera litura fabricius. Legume Research 42: 399-404. Oct 9, 2019
Brahim, Y.A., Wassenburg, J.A., Cruz, F.W., Sifeddine, A., Scholz, D., Bouchaou, L., Dassié, E.P., Jochum, K.P., Edwards, R.L. and Cheng, H. 2018. Multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate variability and linkage to solar forcing in the Western Mediterranean during the last 1000 years. Scientific Reports 8: 17446, DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-35498-x. Oct 7, 2019
Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections
By Patrick Frank, Frontiers in Earth Science, Sep 6, 2019
Has global warming stopped? The tap of incoming energy cannot be turned off
Press Release, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Oct 10, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: But carbon dioxide-caused warming occurs in the atmosphere first, it does not dive into the oceans without a trace. We need to measure it in the atmosphere.]
Flawed Models…”Flat Earth” Climate Simulations Overstate CO2, Falsify Sun And Aerosols
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 6, 2019
[SEPP Comment: From Kalte Sonne.]
Climate Model Subjectivism (validating Gerald North two decades later)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Oct 7, 2019
Measurement Issues — Surface
Homogenisation: The Magical system which uses thermometers in Victoria to correct the temperature in Tasmania
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 6, 2019
Port Hedland: one man with a keen interest knows more about this site than the Bureau of Met does
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 6, 2019
“Replacing 230-litre Stevenson screens with 60-litre ones accelerated from about 1995 and is the single most important cause of network-wide warming and recent record temperatures.”
Climate Emergency Tour: Victoria edition
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2019
Best Monsoon For Years In India
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 6, 2019
The monsoons of death
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2019
Little Ice Age Snowstorms In England
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Oct 10, 2019
Brazil’s Rainfall Remains Healthy: Susceptible to Natural Climatic Events, Not Anthropogenic Global Warming
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, Oct 9, 2019
African evidence support Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis
Press Release, Science Daily Oct 2, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
The Intriguing Problem Of The Younger Dryas—What Does It Mean And What Caused It?
By Don Easterbrook, WUWT, June 19, 2012
During The Last Ice Age (190 ppm CO2), Horses Grazed In A Forested, Warmer-Than-Today Arctic Alaska
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 10, 2019
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Ancient Maya canals and fields show early and extensive impacts on tropical forests
By Staff Writers, Austin TX (SPX), Oct 08, 2019
Research provides new view of the critical role of plankton in marine carbon storage
Insights into important roles of plankton in carbon dioxide storage
Press Release, NSF, Sep 26, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Plankton have been at it for millions of years!]
Catastrophic Sea Level Rise At Scapa Flow
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 10, 2019
Atlantic Ocean circulation may get a jump-start from the other side of the world
New insights into Atlantic’s main circulation system
Press Release, NSF, Sep 25, 2019
“Although AMOC has been stable for thousands of years, data from the past 15 years, as well as computer model projections, have given scientists cause for concern.”
Back from the dead: Some corals regrow after ‘fatal’ warming
By Issam Ahmed, Washington (AFP), Oct 9, 2019
[SEPP Comment: They were not dead after all?]
A New Study Finds Rising Sea Levels PROTECT Coral Reefs From Bleaching And Mass Deaths
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 7, 2019
NASA [GISS]: Batting 0.000 For Thirty-Three Consecutive Seasons
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Oct 20, 2019
Climate change in Vietnam ‘destroying family life’–Latest BBC Lies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Grand challenges in the science of wind energy
By Paul Veers, et al., Science, Oct 10, 2019
“Harvested by advanced technical systems honed over decades of research and development, wind energy has become a mainstream energy resource.”
[SEPP Comment: Mainstream in the days of sailing ships? Abstract does not mention lack of storage as a deficiency.]
Viewpoint: Why sustainable finance needs to be defined by evidence not ideology
The speed and scale needed to stop climate change requires laser-like focus on evidence-based, and sometimes tough, decision-making. Recently we witnessed a welcome example of such evidence-based decision-making in Europe’s energy and climate change policies, write Kirsty Gogan, Rauli Partanen and Eric Ingersoll.
By Kirsty Gogan, Rauli Partanen and Eric Ingersoll, WNN, Oct 7, 2019
[SEPP Comment: What is evidence-based about CO2-caused dangerous warming?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Hansen: 6+ Feet Of Sea Level Rise “Almost Dead Certain” This Century
By Tony Heller, Real climate Science, Oct 11, 2019
Collapse of desert bird populations likely due to heat stress from climate change
Hotter temperatures mean birds need more water to cool off — if it’s available
Press Release, NSF, Oct 4, 2019
“These temperatures are, on average, 2 C (3.6 F) hotter than 100 years ago.”
[SEPP Comment: The study was conducted in the Mojave Desert. How many thermometers in the Mojave Desert have a temperature record of one hundred years, without interruption? The hottest recorded temperature was 56.7 °C (134.1 °F) on 10 July 1913 in Furnace Creek (Greenland Ranch), California – in the Mojave Desert (Death Valley).]
Solar, Wind Are Now Cheaper Than Coal In Most Of The World
By Haley Zaremba, Oil Price.com, Sep 28, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Not if reliable electricity is a necessity.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Believing in climate change doesn’t mean you are preparing for climate change, study finds
By Charles the Moderator, WUWT, Oct 9, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
“Punitive Political Psychiatry” Coming To Germany? Leading Journal Defines Climate Science Dissent A Psychological Disorder
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 11, 2019
NZ Academic: “Climate … denial involves glimpsing the horrible reality”
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 9, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
German Environmental Movement Co-Founder, Professor Calls FFF Movement Hysterical, Overhyped …Real Threat To Economy
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 8, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
I am scared of innocent children
By Václav Vlk Sr, translated and endorsed by LM, The Reference Frame, Oct 5, 2019
Drama Over Science? Greta’s Climate Speech and Appeal to Emotion
By Vijay Jayaraj, Cornwall Alliance, Oct 10, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Madeline Grant: We should reject Extinction Rebellion’s brand of neo-Puritanism
By Madeline Grant, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Oct 8, 2019
New Scientist: UK University Academics Marching with Extinction Rebellion
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 7, 2019
The madness of Extinction Rebellion
This is an upper-middle-class death cult and we should ridicule it out of existence.
By Brendan O’Neill, Spiked, Oct 7, 2019
Extinction Rebellion: police accused of ‘losing control’ of protest as government urged to step in
By Hayley Dixon, Izzy Lyons, Gareth Davies and Lizzie Roberts, Telegraph UK, Via GWPF, Oct 9, 2019
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Alumna writes go-to guide for teaching climate change
By Linda Copman, Alumni Cornell, Sep 20, 2019 [H/t Paul Sheridan]
The National Center for Science Education recently awarded PRI the 2019 Friend of the Planet Award. Ann Reid, the Executive Director of the National Center for Science Education, described the book as “the single best available resource for teachers on climate change.”
Predicting the impact of climate change on bridge safety
Lehigh University researchers’ novel approach combining climatology, hydrology, structural engineering, and risk assessment could help communities fortify bridges against scour caused by extreme weather
Press Release, Lehigh University, Oct 9, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: As if we can predict climate change?]
Questioning European Green
‘Green’ Germany Faces Relegation to 2nd League
By Staff, Daily Telegraph, UK, Via GWPF, Oct 10, 2019
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Elizabeth Warren’s Cruel Plan For “Environmental Justice”
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 10, 2019
The Green ‘New’ Deal is the Old Agenda 21
By Daniel John Sobieski, American Thinker, Oct 9, 2019 [H/t John Dunn]
Understanding the Climate Movement Part 3: Follow the Money
Guest post by Dr Paul Rossiter, WUWT, Oct 6, 2019
#ExxonKnew – Something Wicked This Way Comes
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 8, 2019
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
The world needs a massive carbon tax in just 10 years to limit climate change, IMF says
The international organization suggests a cost of $75 per ton by 2030.
By Chris Mooney and Andrew Freedman, Washington Post, Oct 10, 2019
“The group found that a global tax of $75 per ton by the year 2030 could limit the planet’s warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), or roughly double what it is now.”
[SEPP Comment: Of course, the IMF wants a piece of the action. What is the established relationship between CO2 and warming?]
EU Carbon border Tax Emerges As Green Weapon Against Competitors
By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Oct 10, 2019
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Massive subsidies & government dictated use drives renewables – absent these they’re ignored
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 8, 2019
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Federal Court Trump Administration Ax Obama ERA WOTUS Rule
One of the most far-reaching regulatory initiatives ever undertaken by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has been struck down by a federal court in Georgia and then withdrawn by the Trump administration.
By Bonner Cohen, Heartland, Oct 2, 2019
Energy Issues – Non-US
Price Shock! German Consumer Electricity Rates Climb To “New Record High”, Reaching A Whopping 30.85 Cents/Kwh!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 9, 2019
“Die Welt ends its article: ‘The largest block on the electricity bill, however, are taxes, levies and allocations, which account for more than half of the total price.’ One major price driver are the mandatory, exorbitantly high green energy feed-in tariffs that grid operators are forced to pay.”
Energy firms are ‘misleading’ customers by selling ‘green tariffs’ despite producing NO renewable energy, investigation reveals
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 5, 2019
“As I have noted before, no matter how much “green energy” these companies sell to gullible customers, the amount of renewable generation remains the same. Wind and solar power both effectively receive preferential access to the market, which allows them to sell off the power they produce.
“The idea that each new customer on a green tariff leads to more renewable generation is fraudulent.”
U.S. Natural Gas Reserves Continue To Soar
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, Oct 6, 2019
Another Ignorant Forecast of the Death of the Shale Boom
By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 9, 2019
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Europe Needs a Serious Nuclear-Energy Debate
Sadly, the primacy of anti-nuclear sentiment over empirical fact has been a consistent feature of Europe’s nuclear-power debate since the 1980s. And the alarmist rhetoric surrounding today’s emerging nuclear technology is yet another example of this contradictory and self-defeating approach.
By Samuele Furfari, Project Syndicate, Oct 11, 2019
Can Nuclear Waste Be Safely Transported?
By Josh Bloom, ACSH, Oct 3, 2019
Nuclear Power Is The Only Realistic Option, So We Need A Good Waste Plan
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, Oct 4, 2019
Nuclear Fusion Research in the United Kingdom
By John Constable, GWPF, Oct 6, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The UK politicians claim it must take the lead in abandoning reliable fossil fuels, but others will find a suitable alternative?]
The disconnect between climate action and reality
Global efforts to tackle climate change are futile as long as opposition to nuclear power persists, delegates heard at the opening session of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s International Conference on Climate Change and the Role of Nuclear Power. It is the Vienna-based agency’s first conference on this topic.
By Staff, WNN, Oct 7, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
The Energy Revolution Is Here
Not too long ago, ushering in a societal shift toward clean, renewable energy seemed impossible, given the costs and level of government intervention required. But that has all changed: far from being boondoggles, green-energy options are beating out the fossil-fuel competition where it counts: the bottom line.
By Jules Kortenhorst, Project Syndicate, Oct 11, 219
[SEPP Comment: This part of the special edition on sustainability misses the critical issue: solar and wind are not sustainable – they cannot produce reliably 24/7/365.]
Wind Turbine Infrasound Findings: Part II
By Donald Deever, Master Resource, Oct 10, 2019
Solar Power Can Increase Air Pollution
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 8, 2019
[SEPP Comment: A fuller Duck Curve.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Green Flop: It’s All Over for Britain’s Very Own Electric Car
By Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, Oct 10, 2019
“The company, headed by the inventor Sir James Dyson, said that its engineers had developed a ‘fantastic electric car’ but that it would not go into production because it was not ‘commercially viable’.”
India Has 150 Million Drivers But Only 8,000 Want Electric Cars
By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Oct 6, 2019
[SEPP Comment: “No matter the cost” is an option for green bureaucrats, few others.]
Tesla Warns Californian Customers To Keep A Full Charge Ahead Of Roving Blackouts
By Chris White, Daily Caller, Oct 10, 2019
Hot Cars and Hot Water Heaters
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 11, 2019
The Lights Went Out in California: That Was the Plan All Along
Guest opinion by Chuck Devore, WUWT, Oct 11, 2019
Triumph in Northern California
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Oct 10, 2019
California bans small plastic bottles in hotels
By Marina Pitofsky, The Hill, Oct 10, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Don’t fly to California. According to TSA regulations, bottles larger than 3.4 oz cannot be taken in carry-on luggage.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Cold kills yet again
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2019
The Red Meat Controversy: Where’s The Beef?
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, Oct 8, 2019
Mann, Hayhoe try to erase the Medieval warm period
By James Taylor, CFACT, Oct 1, 2019
Sierra Club sues EPA over claim that climate change ‘is 50 to 75 years out’
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Oct 10, 2019
Other Scientific News
Scientists observe formation of individual viruses, a first
By Brooks Hays, Washington (UPI) Oct 4, 2019
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
AOC trolled by Swiftian satire,
By Paul Matthews Climate Scepticism, Oct 4 2019
“Here is a video of another member of the team, wearing the same T-shirt. ‘We’re taking orders now that can be fulfilled for Thanksgiving.’”
The State of Destruction
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 10, 2019
New Law Requires You To Listen To Greta Thunberg Lecture Before Purchasing Gasoline
By Staff, The Babylon Bee, Oct 7, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
1. A Hostile Climate for Children
Environmentalists double down on Malthusianism, which is inhumane and won’t even reduce carbon.
By Joseph C. Sternberg, WSJ, Oct 11, 2019
SUMMARY by TWTW: The author states:
“As if the world didn’t already have enough problems, now we’re all supposed to hate babies.
“Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez last week couldn’t quite bring herself to tell an attendee at a town hall that no, we should not ‘eat the babies’ to rein in climate change. The faux constituent was a prankster (and it’s a mercy no one actually believes this), but the prank worked because Malthusianism is in fashion again on the climate-obsessed left. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez played to type by passing up a chance to pooh-pooh even the most extreme version of it.
“Who can blame her, when barely a month earlier presidential candidate Bernie Sanders mostly got a pass in respectable circles for suggesting at a climate-change town hall that better birth control in poorer countries should be ‘a key feature of a plan to address climate catastrophe,’ in the words of the entirely genuine audience member who asked a leading question.
“Barely a month before that, Britain’s Prince Harry announced he would limit his output to two children in the name of environmentalism—a view heartily endorsed by Jane Goodall, whom he was interviewing for British Vogue (don’t ask).
“Someone might ask Japan how this all works out.
“Western politicians and royal second sons talk the talk about having fewer children. The Japanese have walked the walk straight out of the empty maternity ward for four decades. This week brings news that in Japan the number of live births this year could fall below 900,000, after births in the first seven months of 2019 fell nearly 6% compared with the same period last year.
“Who knows if this is doing any good for the environment, even if you adopt the view that what matters to the planet above all is restricting carbon emissions. Yes, emissions are down in no-baby Japan—to the lowest point in eight years as of the last fiscal year. An aging population brings some carbon-reduction benefits, such as the moderation in the rate of car purchases Tokyo notes in its periodic submissions to the U.N.’s climate panel.
“Yet in other respects the picture is more mixed. One reason Japan’s baby count keeps falling is that fewer young Japanese men and women are getting married. This means that the number of households—relevant to climate discussions since one needs to heat and light each home—keeps rising.
“The number of members of each household keeps falling as babyless Japanese singletons strike out on their own. Without dipping into an argument about causation, it’s notable that a supposedly pro-environment decline in babies is correlated with other social trends that aren’t as friendly to the atmosphere.”
The author questions if few babies encourage less CO2 emissions, then continues:
“The problem, though, is that this discussion misses the bigger question climate activists never engage when they talk about population: Is their less carbon-intensive dream world a place we actually want to live in, if the price of achieving it is to have fewer children?
“Japan’s experience suggests not. Its population decline seems to be both effect and cause of various economic and social miseries. The precise reasons for Japan’s long-running birth dearth are debated among demographers and economists, but an important factor is that a decline in the economic prospects of young Japanese men has frozen the marriage market. Japanese women, who are growing more professionally successful, may find they can’t take time out of their careers to have children.
“Again taking care not to assume causation when correlation will do, it’s notable that these trends over time can take on a self-reinforcing quality. Chronic economic decline in a country with too few children won’t make men’s job prospects any better. Women who have been goaded into the workforce in part to compensate for today’s shortage of working-age people will find it harder (or perhaps just less desirable) to take time off to start their own families.
“And all of this is wrecking Japan’s family-oriented culture, as more people grow old without children or grandchildren to care for them. How does one balance these economic and social costs against carbon emissions in the grand political, economic and moral scales?
“A humane environmentalism would be more alert to and interested in that sort of question. It might be less easily ridiculed and more politically successful as a result.”
2. California’s Dark Ages
Why the progressive paragon is living like it’s 1899
Editorial, WSJ, Oct 10, 2019
SUMMARY by TWTW: The editorial states:
“Californians are learning to live like the Amish after investor-owned utility PG&E this week shut off power to two million or so residents to prevent wildfires amid heavy, dry winds. Blame the state’s largest blackout on a perfect storm of bad policies.
“Two dozen or so wildfires in the past few years have been linked to PG&E equipment, including one last fall that killed 85 people. PG&E under state law is on the hook for tens of billions of dollars in damages and has filed for bankruptcy. For years the utility skimped on safety upgrades and repairs while pumping billions into green energy and electric-car subsidies to please its overlords in Sacramento. Credit Suisse has estimated that long-term contracts with renewable developers cost the utility $2.2 billion annually more than current market power rates.
“PG&E customers pay among the highest rates in America. But the utility says inspecting all of its 100,000 or so miles of power lines and clearing dangerous trees would require rates to increase by more than 400%. California’s litigation-friendly environment has also increased insurance rates for tree trimmers and made it hard to find workers.
“Meantime, opposition to logging and prescribed burns in California’s forests compounded by a seven-year drought has yielded 147 million dead trees that make for combustible fuel. Rural communities are at especially high fire risk when winds kick up as they have this week.
“To avoid more damage, PG&E announced this week that it would cut power across 34 counties in Central and Northern California as long as there are sustained winds of 25 miles an hour and gusts of 45 miles an hour. After winds subside, the utility says it may take several days to inspect equipment before power returns, and there could be more blackouts this fall.
“Suddenly, Californians are learning to love fossil fuels. Stores have experienced runs on oil lamps—yes, those still exist—and emergency generators fueled by gasoline, propane or diesel. Napa County wineries and even the tunnel connecting San Francisco with the East Bay are operating on generators.
“Most batteries that store solar power can’t keep homes charged for more than a day during a blackout, and most electric-car owners won’t have enough juice to escape the power outage. Still, liberals in Sacramento want to abolish fossil fuels.
After discussing a new estimate of future CO2 emissions the editorial continues:
“… Wildfires last year produced more CO2 than the state’s businesses, homes and farms, offsetting state emission reductions in 2017 nine times over.
“Environmental regulators responded to the report by claiming that carbon from burned trees is more ‘natural’ than from combusted fossil fuels. Perhaps they’ve inhaled too much of their own smoke.”