The Week That Was: 2019-09-14 (September 14, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week – “If by the liberty of the press were understood merely the liberty of discussing the propriety of public measures and political opinions, let us have as much of it as you please: But if it means the liberty of affronting, calumniating and defaming one another, I, for my part, own myself willing to part with my share of it.” —Benjamin Franklin (1789)
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Climate Model Issues – Greenhouse Feedbacks: Prior to the 1979 Charney Report, numerous laboratory experiments established that a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) would cause a modest increase in global temperatures, nothing of great concern. The Charney Report states that advocates of global climate models, mainly NASA-GISS and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton advocated that a positive feedback, mainly from water vapor from the oceans would result in a far greater warming, which was estimated to be 3º C plus or minus 1.5º C. The last paragraph of the report, Section 4 – Models and Their Validity states:
“We conclude that the predictions of CO2 -induced climate changes made with the various models examined are basically consistent and mutually supporting. The differences in model results are relatively small and may be accounted for by differences in model characteristics and simplifying assumptions. Of course, we can never be sure that some badly estimated or totally overlooked effect may not vitiate our conclusions. We can only say that we have not been able to find such effects. If the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere is indeed doubled and remains so long enough for the atmosphere and the intermediate layers of the ocean to attain approximate thermal equilibrium, our best estimate is that changes in global temperature of the order of 3° C will occur and that these will be accompanied by significant changes in regional climatic patterns.”
The conclusions of the Charney Report were based on the consistency of the global climate models and were not verified by experiments or observations. The conclusions of the Charney Report have been retained by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) for forty years. But they have provided little investigation of the feedbacks, particularly what is occurring in the atmosphere. Key questions remain: Do the positive feedbacks exist and to what extent?
Writing in Watts Up With That (WUWT), Patrick Frank announced the publication of his paper “Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections” in Frontiers in Earth Science: Atmospheric Science, after six years of trying. Frank’s personal experiences give an idea of the difficulty of publishing a paper that questions the climate orthodoxy. His comments are biting, including the view that many “experts” in the establishment confuse false precision with accuracy in estimates. An example of false precision is when NASA-GISS made estimates of average surface temperature to 4 one-hundreds of a degree F, even though measuring devices may be no more accurate than plus or minus 2 degrees F.
According to Frank, “the paper demonstrates that climate models have no predictive value.” One may agree with the statement that models have little or no predictive value without agreeing with the claim that Frank’s paper demonstrates this. Again, one needs to realize that even though models agree with one another, all may be incorrect. [Note that the model of the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences is an outlier, making projections of atmospheric temperature trends far below the other models and close to observed temperature trends.]
In posts on September 11 and 12, Roy Spencer articulates his concerns with the Frank paper, the second post following an exchange with Frank. Spencer states that the models are not forced to balance the global energy budget at every step, as Frank implies, but each model only once, during control runs. The 20 plus models have a wide variety of errors. Spencer writes:
…” yet they all basically behave the same in their temperature projections for the same (1) climate sensitivity and (2) rate of ocean heat uptake in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.”
“Thus, the models themselves demonstrate that their global warming forecasts do not depend upon those bias errors in the components of the energy fluxes (such as global cloud cover) as claimed by Dr. Frank ….”
The issue goes back to the issue raised by the Charney Report: what are the feedbacks and how well can they be estimated? Consistency in model results does not imply that the climate system is well understood or even that the greenhouse effect is well represented.
As Spencer states in his September 13 post:
“The big question is, ‘How much will the climate system warm in response to increasing CO2?’ The answer depends not so much upon uncertainties in the component energy fluxes in the climate system, as Frank claims, but upon how those energy fluxes change as the temperature changes.”
Stated differently, what happens depends on how the energy fluxes change. What predictions we can make depends on the uncertainties in the energy fluxes and the changes in energy fluxes. Spenser continues:
“And that’s what determines ‘climate sensitivity.’
“This is why people like myself and Lindzen emphasize so-called ‘feedbacks’ (which determine climate sensitivity) as the main source of uncertainty in global warming projections.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, and Model Issues.
The Greenhouse Effect – Poor Measurements: In his discussion of his new paper, Frank brings up a 2001 paper by Willie Soon, et al. that remains important today in discussing the limitations of global climate models: “Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties.” Despite massive improvements in computing power, advances in technology, and important satellite measurement sensors, the modelers generally ignore measurements of the atmosphere, and stick with surface measurements that have multiple flaws, particularly the urban heat island effect in changing land use, even slightly. The abstract of the Soon et al. paper states:
“Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in general circulation model (GCM) calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with parameterization of multiply interacting climate components, forcings and feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 yr., is not possible. We further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to the commonly held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO2 added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming. An assessment of the merits of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations Environmental Programme¹s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports (1990, 1995 and the upcoming 2001 report). Our review highlights only the enormous scientific difficulties facing the calculation of climatic effects of added atmospheric CO2 in a GCM. The purpose of such a limited review of the deficiencies of climate model physics and the use of GCMs is to illuminate areas for improvement. Our review does not disprove a significant anthropogenic influence on global climate.”
The authors of this paper endured significant personal, ad hominem attacks for displaying the courage of speaking openly on the limits of climate modeling as it was being executed.
The same criticisms apply today. The greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere. Until the climate modelers, or those who control their budgets, demand that climate modelers incorporate atmospheric data in their models, we can expect that climate science as expressed by the IPCC and the USGCRP will continue to stagnate, while individual research advances, despite a lack of government financing. As Nir Shaviv stated: The graph of changes in the estimates from a doubling of CO2 is the most boring he ever drew. Please note that two of the authors of the 2001 paper, Willie Soon and Sherwood Idso received the Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award for “Exceptional Courage in the Quest for Knowledge.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Stunning Ignorance: The once distinguished American Geophysical Union, now called AGU, “Advancing Earth and Space Science” has issued a position statement for member comment. The statement is titled:
“Society Must Address the Growing Climate Crisis Now”. The opening sentence reads: “Prompt and concerted actions to limit and adapt to human-caused climate change are less costly than remaining on the current trajectory and can provide great benefits for human well-being.” The bit that is most striking is:
“Realistic and continually improving computer simulations of the global climate predict that both temperature and sea level will continue to rise as a result of past and future greenhouse gas emissions. Past emissions will contribute to some additional heating into the near future. However, the amount of rise will be predominantly determined by future human-caused emissions. Global average temperature will only stabilize after net emissions of CO2 reach zero, i.e. the amount entering the atmosphere is matched by the amount removed, and emissions of other greenhouse gases are stable or decreasing.” [Boldface added.]
Do the authors of this statement actually believe that human emissions CO2 caused the current period? (That is, the Quaternary, of the past 2.5 million years — with frequent, prolonged glaciations interrupted by brief warm periods.) That only CO2 causes warming? See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
Troubles in the EU? Writing in Forbes on the EU, reporter Dave Keating discusses a little-known treaty that can bring significant problems to politicians trying to reduce use of carbon-based fuels – Energy Charter Treaty. Signed in 1991 and taking effect in 1998, the treaty governs
“…the cross-border energy investments between the countries of the European Union and former Soviet states such as Kazakhstan and Georgia. It dealt with a variety of issues, but perhaps the most impactful was investor dispute settlement.
“The mechanism protects investors against sudden regulatory changes that might cancel the energy projects they’ve invested in.
“Sounds simple enough. But since then, the treaty has morphed into something almost unrecognisable. Russia has since pulled out of the treaty, and the investor dispute settlement mechanism is being mostly used by fossil fuel companies suing Western European countries for cancelling fossil fuel projects – nothing to do with the post-communist world.”
According to Keating, today, about two thirds of the investor lawsuits under the treaty involve an investor from one EU country suing the government of another EU country. Governments (taxpayers) have been ordered or agreed to pay more than $51 billion in claims. Litigation is escalating. See links under After Paris.
Disciplined? Petteri Taalas, the Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) from January 2016 until January 2020, gave an interview to a Finnish magazine in which he disagreed with climate doomsday extremists. The WMO is one of the UN parent organizations to the IPCC. After the interview was picked-up by other news organizations, the WMO issued a press release from Taalas stating:
“To stop a global temperature increase of more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the level of ambition needs to be tripled. And to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees, it needs to be multiplied by five.”
“WMO is coordinating a synthesis report of the latest climate science prepared under the auspices of the Science Advisory Group to the Climate Action Summit, which I co-chair. It will serve as a ‘transparent envelope’ of authoritative and actionable cutting-edge science which underlines both the need for climate action as well as solutions to help in mitigation and adaptation.” See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.
SEPP April Fool’s Winner: Last week, TWTW announced the winner of the April Fool’s Award is AOC by a landslide! Although many distinguished and not so distinguished people were nominated, such as Ola Royrvik of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, Bill Nye the supposed science guy, Joachim Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Center for Climate Impacts, and Greta Thunberg, the young thing; Alexandria Ocasio Cortez outpolled them all – by far.
Although it is difficult to locate any legislative accomplishments by AOC, one could say she has accomplished a great deal towards earning this prestigious award of a lump of coal. AOC, and her press, has helped galvanize candidates for the nomination for President by the Democratic Party into an absurd race to spend the most money to destroy a reliable, functional system of energy, particularly electricity, with expensive, unreliable electricity.
The race to destruction is based on fears generated by models that have not been validated, and when tested against physical evidence, fail. Since normal science depends on rigorous application of the scientific method, one can term this fear as paranormal science, supernatural. AOC’s former chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti, has been reported to say it’s not about the environment, it’s about control. That is the issue, expanding government control over the American public when it is clearly not needed. See links under The Political Games Continue.
Number of the Week: UP 24% — Argus Media bills itself as the “leading independent provider of energy and commodity price benchmarks.” It reported that:
“Brazil’s grains and oilseeds crop rose by 6.4pc to a record 242mn metric tonnes (t) in the 2018-2019 harvest, boosted by increased corn and cotton output.
“The total compared with 227.7mn t from last year’s crop, the country’s agricultural statistics agency Conab said in its final report on the season ended 30 June.
“The corn harvest rose by 24pc to a record 100mn t in 2018-19 from the prior year. The final number was pulled higher by favorable weather conditions for winter corn, which accounts for nearly two thirds of all the country’s cereal production.”
“Soybean output fell by 3.6pc to 115mn t, down from the prior harvest but still the second largest on record. The crop was impacted by hot, dry weather between December-January, an important period for development of the crop.” [Boldface added].
The Fourth National Climate Assessment (2018) by the USGCRP stated that the Midwest would become too warm for agriculture. The major export crops of the Midwest are soybeans and corn (maize). The primary competitor is Brazil with the agriculture regions in the tropics where soybeans and maize are flourishing. For six years, Brazil has outproduced the US in soybeans for export. The failure to understand agriculture indicates the quality of the work of US climate scientists. See link under Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Solar Spike Suggests a More Active Sun
Radio waves are providing a new way to probe the Sun and suggest that the magnetic field of its corona may be stronger than long thought.
By Nola Taylor Redd, EOS, Sep 12, 2019
From Boycotting to Blacklisting
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 13, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The Faith Component of Global Warming Predictions
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 8, 2019
“We do not know the quantitative average amounts of absorbed sunlight and emitted infrared energy across the Earth, either observationally or from first physical principles, to the accuracy necessary to blame most recent warming on humans rather than nature.”
By Willie Soon, Sallie Baliunas, Sherwood B. Idso, Kirill Ya. Kondratyev, Eric S. Posmentier, Inter-Research Science Publisher, Nov 2, 2001
A Stove Top Analogy to Climate Models
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 13, 2019
Long-Term US Drought and Precipitation Trends
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, Sep 12, 2019
Link to paper: Assessing changes in US regional precipitation on multiple time scales
By Ross McKitrick and John Christy, Journal of Hydrology, November 2019 [H/t WUWT]
“We then show that the trend inferences [in the US National Climate Assessment] don’t hold up when the data are extended back into the 1800s and that the trend signs reverse on the last 4 decades of the sample, which is the opposite of what should happen if GHG’s are driving the changes. We conclude that natural variability is likely the dominant driver of historical changes in precipitation and hence drought dynamics in the US regions we examine.”
Burn Money: wind farms in Tas and Vic are “correlated” — all useless at the same time
How to make electricity more expensive: build 1,000MW of random generation which needs expensive back up and an undersea cable too.
Tasmania – Australia’s offshore wind farm?
By Tom Quirk and Paul Miskelly, Jo Nova’s Blog, Sep 12, 2019
Climate Emergency Tour: Edmonton Edition
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
Defending the Orthodoxy
Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment
Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate, July 23 – 27, 1979
To the Climate Research Board, National Research Council
National Academy of sciences, 1979
Position statements out for member review
By Staff, AGU, Accessed Sep 14, 2019
Global warming has made iconic Andean peak unrecognizable
By Tim Appenzeller, Science Mag. Sep 11, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
What If We Stopped Pretending?
The climate apocalypse is coming. To prepare for it, we need to admit that we can’t prevent it.
By Jonathan Franzen, The New Yorker, Sep 8, 2019
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Why Americans Remain in the Dark about CO2
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 10, 2019
Untouched by climate change reality
For years global Cassandras have predicted that doomsday is at hand
By Richard Rahn, Washington Times, Sep 9, 2019
Brazil’s Fires and Biofuels.
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Sep 11, 2019
There’s a carbon cycle?
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
Climate Changing for the Better
By Mark Gelhaus, American Thinker, Sep 10, 2019
Ecological Grief – when scientists think they need therapy, but what they really need is debate
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 14, 2019
[SEPP Comment: I KNOW I’m right, therefore there is nothing to debate!]
Time to Put an End to the Climate Cult
By Spike Hampson, American Thinker, Sep 9, 2019
Former German Bundestag President Warns Of Climate Activism’s “Anti-Democratic Affection”, “Debate Rigorism”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 10, 2019
By Dave Keating, Forbes, Sep 5, 2019
UK to host United Nations climate change summit
By Staff, WNN, Sep 11, 2019
Change in US Administrations
Climate skeptic on National Security Council leaving Trump administration
By Justin Wise, The Hill, Sep 11, 2019
“Despite having no formal training in climate science, Happer entered the Trump administration in September 2018 with well-known positions that pushed back against the scientific community’s understanding of global warming.”
[SEPP Comment: Happer is an internationally recognized expert in Atomic, Molecular, and Optical Physics (AMO), which includes the study of matter-matter and light-matter interactions. This is precisely the field that includes describing the mechanisms of the “greenhouse effect.”]
Why a high-profile climate science opponent quit Trump’s White House
By Scott Waldman, E&E News, via Science, Sep 12, 2019
Daily Caller toes climate alarmist line on Happer resignation
By E. Calvin Beisner, Cornwall Alliance, Sep 12, 2019 [H/t Thomas Wysmuller]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Brazil FM says ‘climatism’ a bid to restrict sovereignty
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP) Sept 11, 2019
In Unprecedented Move, Head of Key Meteorological Organization Slams Climate Extremists
By Evan Pentichoukov, The Epoch Times, Sep 10, 2019
Press Release, WMO, Sep 12, 2019 [H/t Mark Albright]
Seeking a Common Ground
American Energy Security and Climate Change
By Jim Webb & Jim Nicholson, Real Clear Energy, Sep 12, 2019
Don’t overhype the link between climate change and hurricanes
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Sep 10, 2019
4 inconvenient truths about climate change
Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.
By Noah Millman, MSN News, Sep 8, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Effect of CO2 and Temperature on Soybean Seed Nutrition
Köhler, I.H., Huber, S.C., Bernacchi, C.J. and Baxter, I.R. 2019. Increased temperatures may safeguard the nutritional quality of crops under future elevated CO2 concentrations. The Plant Journal 97: 872-886. Sep 13, 2019
“Temperature stress, in contract, reduced yields in both years by 27% and 36%. However, in the combined elevated CO2 and elevated temperature treatment the yield increases from elevated CO2 offset the yield declines from elevated temperature, fully mitigating the negative effects of temperature stress and returning yield values to that observed under control conditions (ambient CO2 and ambient temperature).”
[SEPP Comment: Since the US National Climate Assessment [NCA 2018] assumes a temperature increase from increasing CO2, its conclusions on US agriculture are based on speculation, not observation.]
Negligible Effects of Ocean Acidification on a Juvenile Coral Reef Fish
Sundin, J., Amcoff, M., Mateos-González, F., Raby, G.D. and Clark, T.D. 2019. Long-term acclimation to near-future ocean acidification has negligible effects on energetic attributes in a juvenile coral reef fish. Oecologia 190: 689-702. Sep 12, 2019
Future Rice Yield Stimulation by Elevated CO2
Sakai, H., Tokida, T., Usui, Y., Nakamura, H. and Hasegawa, T. 2019. Yield responses to elevated CO2 concentration among Japanese rice cultivars released since 1882. Plant Production Science 22: 352-366. Sep 11, 2019
Combined Effects of Temperature and CO2 on Time-to-Plant-Flowering
Walker, S.M. and Ward, J.K. 2018. Interactions between rising CO2 and temperature drive accelerated flowering in model plants under changing conditions of the last century. Oecologia 187: 911-919. Sep 9, 2019
“In discussing their findings, Walker and Ward say that ‘the interactive effects of rising CO2 and temperature over the last century may explain why there has been observed accelerations in flowering times in long-term field surveys that cannot be replicated in warming-only studies.’ Indeed, their results suggest as much; an average 3-day reduction in TTF per degree increase in temperature. What remains to be discerned, however, is how this advance may (or may not) impact other plants and the ecosystems in which they reside.”
Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections, Mark II.
Guest post by Pat Frank, WUWT, Sep 7, 2019 [H/t Dennis Amber]
Link to paper: Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections
By Patrick Frank SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Frontiers in Earth Science, Sep 6, 2019
[SEPP Comment: See two links immediately below.]
Critique of “Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Predictions”
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 11, 2019
Additional Comments on the Frank (2019) “Propagation of Error” Paper
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 12, 2019
Measurement Issues — Surface
Europe August Temperature Trends Not Warming… Instead Have Been Cooling Over Past 2 Decades
By Kirye, No Tricks Zone, Sep 13, 2019
Climate change may cut soil’s ability to absorb water
Press Release, Rutgers University, Sep 11, 2019 [H/t Mark Liebe]
Link to a US Golf Association paper illustrating the complexity of soil chemistry: Understanding The Different Wetting Agent Chemistries
A surfactant is a wetting agent but a wetting agent may not be a surfactant. surprised?
By Stanley Zontek and Stanley Kostka, Green Section Record, July 20, 2019
The Improving Climate Of The Northeast US
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Sep 12, 2019
Climate change poses major risk to flood insurance program, experts warn
By James Jarvis, The Hill, Sep 12, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Experts who don’t know how to read data. See paper by McKitrick and Christy under Challenging the Orthodoxy.]
Europe’s 2019 Heat Wave: The Rest of the Story
By Robert Endlich, Master Resource, Sep 12, 2019
“Hot, but Not Extremely So
“The caterwauling from the mainstream media – and claims that 2019’s hot summer was part of human-caused CO2-fueled global warming and a direct cause of alleged extreme maximum temperatures – are just not true. Analysis of the claims and events reveals these were simply hot weather events in a warm summer; claims of new extremes are far-fetched and fade under scrutiny.”
Hurricane Dorian: Just Weather, Not Climate Change
By Chris Martz, Weather, Sep 7, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
“We are quickly approaching climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season¹ (September 10th) (Figure 1), thus it should be NO surprise to anyone that we have seen an uptick in tropical activity. However, I stand corrected － people are losing their minds about it.”
Stories From The Safe, Low CO2 Climate Of 1900
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Sep 10, 2019
[SEPP Comment: 1900 was the year of the Galveston Hurricane, considered the most destructive to hit the US.]
Let’s Welcome Warming! 2 New Studies Show Species, Biodiversity Harmed More By Cooling Than Warming
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 8, 2019
New Study: Of 53 Long-Term Tide Gauges On North America’s East/West Coasts, 24 Have Negative Accelerations
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 9, 2019
Link to paper: The Nonlinear Pattern of Sea Levels: A Case Study of North America
By Alberto Boretti, Nonlinear Approaches in Engineering Applications, Aug 7, 2019
Public Radio: Things Ill-Considered
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Sep 12, 2019
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Ship with Climate Change Warriors caught in ice, Warriors evacuated
By Erofey Schkvarkin, Maritime Bulletin, Sep 4, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The warriors had to be helicoptered out – no fossil fuels used? No doubt, the scientists on the Fram in the 1890s would have had a few choice words for these warriors.]
Guardian Panic Over Svalbard–Updated Images
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 9, 2019
“Whilst 2016 was an unusually mild year, other years recently have not been much warmer than the 1950s.
“Last year, for instance, the annual mean temperature was minus 2.38C, compared to minus 2.58C in 1957.
“I’m not sure that a rise of 0.2C in sixty years is anything to panic about.”
Corn, cotton output push Brazil harvest to record
By Staff, Argus, Sep 10, 2019
A two-minute hate for methane
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
CNN vs. What the Science Says, Part 2
By Dave Burton, reposted from Sea Level Info, WUWT, Sep 12, 2019
L A Times “climate change facts” article conceals critical global energy & emissions data
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Sep 13, 2019
Newsflash: Coastal areas are wet
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
The Media Discrimination Against Cold Weather
By Vijay Jayaraj, Townhall, Sep 13, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Another vital forest at risk: Scientists fear warming water could be killing off Puget Sound’s kelp beds
By Evan Bush, Seattle Times, Sep 13, 2019 [H/t Ken Schlichte]
[SEPP Comment: Off the Pacific Coast of North America, major kelp beds stretch from the Aleutian Islands far south to lower Baja California. In South America they are stretch north from southern Chile (about 52 degrees South latitude to the Ecuador, near the equator. Why bother with facts when you have a story to sell?]
Bill Giles Doubles Down!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 11, 2019
“It was back in 1996 that he started making these predictions, telling the Independent that he was going to plant olive trees in his Oxfordshire garden:”
Healthcare can worsen global climate crisis
By Staff, Physics World, Sep 12, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Assuming the “climate crisis” were the onset of a major ice age?]
Polar bear at a walrus haulout with cliffs in Russia: Netflix scenario all over again?
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 13, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Cost of Living is biggest concern among Australian voters on both sides of politics
What’s the polar opposite topic to climate change? Probably “cost of living”.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 10, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Perhaps the term “political opposite” may be better than “polar opposite.”]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
These starving polar bears falsely blamed on climate change have scared kids to death
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 12, 2019
The Myth That the Polar Bear Population Is Declining
The story of a resurgent polar bear population deserves to be told and applauded.
By Jon Miltimore, Foundation for Economic Education, Sep 9, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Democrats invite teen climate change activist Greta Thunberg to testify before Congress
By Josh Siegel, Washington Examiner, Sep 12, 2019
“’We’re at the point where an entire generation has grown up in the climate crisis,’ said Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor of Florida, chairwoman of the Select Climate Crisis Committee. ‘They know the science they know the stakes and they know how to rise to the challenge. We need to rise with them.’”
[SEPP Comment: Is Congress up to the Challenge: Exploring the mysteries of the teenage brain?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Army could phase out fossil fuels to attract ecofriendly recruits, senior general says
By Dominic Nicholls, The Telegraph, UK, Sep 13, 2019
Climate Scientists Look to Poor Countries to Fund Geoengineering
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 11, 2019
Should the international community protect the Amazon?
By L. Vennin, Paris (AFP), Sept 6, 2019
Questioning European Green
EU countries have ‘no concrete plans’ to phase out fossil fuel subsidies: report
By Frédéric Simon, EURACTIV.com, Sep 9, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Solar panels: Thousands of customers complain
By Ed Hanson, BBC, Sep 9, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Buckets of icy cold reality
Democrat presidential candidates and Green New Dealers need to face some hard energy facts
Guest essay by Paul Driessen, WUWT, Sep 12, 2019
It’s a Science Emergency: How many fires can Australia stop with solar panels and windfarms?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 12, 2019
The Political Games Continue
Hey Democratic Candidates: Are You Going To Ban All Fossil Fuels?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 9, 2019
“So far, though, I haven’t seen a single one of these candidates address things like:
• How is an airplane going to work in this brave new world?
• How are you going to heat your house?
• How much is your electricity going to cost?
• How is farm equipment going to run?”
Marlo Lewis: Climate questions for politicians (that no one seems to want to ask)
By Marlo Lewis, Fox News, Sep 4, 2019
Were Dems’ Climate Platform a Religion it Would Be a Sham
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Sep 9, 2019
Braying Donkeys of Climate Alarm; Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing
Guest Post by Just Beau, Carlin Economics and Science, Sep 8, 2019
Liz Peek: Ignorance and silliness on display as Democrats race down climate change rabbit hole
By Liz Peek, Fox News, Sep 9, 2019
Bolsonaro’s scorched earth diplomacy could cost Brazil
By Pascale Trouillaud, Rio De Janeiro (AFP) Sept 10, 2019
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
A ‘Conservative Case’ for Carbon Taxes That Isn’t
A coalition of old Bush hands and Big Oil companies is trying to seduce Republicans with a very bad idea.
By Julie Kelly, American Greatness, Sep 10, 2019
Anti-Carbon Tax Campaigner Wins Canadian Province Elections
By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Sep 11, 2019
Democrats: Americans Won’t Pay Your Carbon Taxes
The “town hall” had a lot of excitement about the sorts of environmental policies voters have repeatedly rejected.
By Ramesh Ponnuru, Bloomberg, Sep 8, 2019
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Greece, Slovenia among five EU countries to introduce new fossil fuel subsidies – report
By Staff, Balkan Green Energy News, Sep 10, 2019 [H//t GWPF]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA, U.S. Army Repeal 2015 Rule Defining “Waters of the United States” Ending Regulatory Patchwork
Press Release, EPA, Sep 12, 2019
Trump administration to repeal waterway protections
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Sep 12, 2019
“The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Thursday will announce final plans to redefine and thus shrink the waterways that must be protected under the law, …”
[SEPP Comment: These “waterways”, “navigable waterways of the United States” have included wet leaves hundreds of feet away from any stream.]
Trump administration takes key step to open Alaskan wildlife refuge to drilling by end of year
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Sep 12, 2019
Energy Issues – Non-US
Greta, Germany & Green Energy
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Sep 11, 2019
Link to report: Energy Transition Index (English)
By Staff, McKinsey, Accessed Sep 13, 2019
Future Energy Scenarios 2019
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 12, 2019
Link to report: Future Energy Scenarios (FES) provide transparent, holistic paths through future, uncertain energy landscapes.
By Staff, National Grid ESO, 2019
“As always, there are four scenarios, but I will concentrate on the “Two Degrees” one, which looks to be the central assumption, designed to achieve an 80% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050.
“In the FES, there is the usual nonsense about large scale hydrogen production, (requiring carbon storage), heat pumps, EVs and renewables.
“But there are really just two tables which show how fanciful the whole thing is.”
Tufts Professor: If China Stops Building Lots of Coal Plants they will be a Climate Leader
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 12, 2019
Energy Issues – Australia
EPA Part 2: How many degrees Celsius of warming will these new WA Guidelines abate?
Time for the cost-benefit question. In a sane world, the business case for carbon mitigation is like a naked singularity. No matter how many times the question is asked, no numerical answer ever emerges.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 9, 2019
Energy Issues — US
IHS: Natural Gas Prices Will Fall Below $2/MMBtu in 2020 [At the Henry Hub, Erath, La.]
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Sep 12, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Thanks to New York State blocking new pipelines to New England and the 1920 Jones Act, a cold New England winter will force New England to import LNG from places such as Russia.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
As House passes Arctic drilling ban, Interior goes the other way
Trump administration moves to open part of sensitive area to drilling, a win for Alaska Republicans
By Benjamin J. Hulac, Roll Call, Sep 13, 2019
House working to cripple America’s oil supply
By Jay Lehr, CFACT, Sep 11, 2019
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Climate Crisis! Companies are Investing Big in New Oil Fields
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 9, 2019
Shale Gas: Penn State Researchers Rediscover Circular Reasoning
By David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 11, 2019
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]
Scientists Find Cheaper Way Of Tapping Shale Gas Resources
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Sep 5, 2019
Russia’s Novatek announces launch of huge Arctic gas project
By Staff, Phys.org, Sep 5, 2019
Nuclear Energy and Fears
China plans giant underground lab to research nuclear waste
By Julie Zaugg and Nanlin Fang, CNN, Sep 6, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Silenced by the eco-warrior establishment
By Andrew Montford, The Conservative Woman, Sep 13, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
USA begins first commercial testing of silicide fuel
By Staff, WNN, Sep 11, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
A decade of renewable energy investment, led by solar, tops over $2T
By Staff Writers, Frankfurt, Germany (SPX), Sep 09, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: Confusing spending with investment, what are the returns?]
German Wind Industry In A Coma: Tenders For Wind Energy Projects “Have Fallen To New, All-Time Low”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 11, 2019
These U.S. States Generate The Most Wind And Solar Power
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, Sep 5, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
California’s Largest Battery Storage Installation to Be Installed in Mojave Desert
By Robert D. Castro and Daniel Beese, Power Mag, Sep 11, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Lacks discussion of expected costs to the consumer.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Carmakers near CO2 cliff-edge in electrification race
By Laurence Frost, Edward Taylor, Reuters, Sep 9, 2019
Shocking news about electric cars
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
[SEPP Comment: After the essay there is an interesting comment from an engineer on efficiency of power plants and electric vehicles that call into question the referenced report.]
You Won’t Have Much Luck Selling Electric Cars to Germans
By Brian Parkin, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Sep 8, 2019
Health, Energy, and Climate
Infectious Disease: Things Have Not Gotten As Stupid As They Are Going To Get
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, Sep 5, 2019
New Studies: Cold-Temperature Deaths Rising And 10-20 Times More Common Than Heat-Related Deaths
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 12, 2019
Are Category 5 hurricanes such as Dorian the ‘new normal’?–Asks Michael Mann
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 11, 2019
Anti-Coal Protest Foiled: Polish Border Guards Stop, Board Greenpeace Vessel
By Thomas Williams, Breitbart, Sep 11, 2019 [H/t Paul Homewood]
“Greenpeace Poland Program Director Paweł Szypulski justified the group’s actions by saying they were responding to an emergency.”
Five Heathrow Pause activists ‘preemptively’ arrested
Roger Hallam and Mike Lynch-White were among those arrested in London before Friday’s planned action at the airport.
By Rebecca Taylor, Sky News, Sep 12, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Oh, it feels hypocritical, does it?
By Paul Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 11, 2019
Other Scientific News
Do animals control earth’s oxygen level
By Staff Writers, Copenhagen, Denmark (SPX), Sep 11, 2019
Link to paper: Atmosphere–ocean oxygen and productivity dynamics during early animal radiations
By Tais W. Dah, et al., PNAS, Sep 9, 2019
NASA Selects Proposals to Advance Understanding of Space Weather
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Sep 04, 2019
Lightning ‘superbolts’ form over oceans from November to February
Press Release, University of Washington, Via EurekAlert, Sep 9, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Columbia River commerce halted by Bonneville Dam closure
By Staff, AP, Sep 10, 2019 [H/t Ken Schlichte]
“About $2 billion in commercial cargo travels the entire system annually, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and it’s the No. 1 export gate in the U.S. for wheat and barley and the No. 2 export gate for corn.”
Guess I’ll Go Eat Some Worms
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACHS, Sep 10, 2019
Surprising Parallels Found Between Solar Activity And Hurricane Development
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 7, 2019
Will Drinking Red Wine Give You A Healthier Microbiome?
By Angela Dowden, ACSH, Sep 9, 2019
About Those Nitrates in Our Food
Your salad contains more nitrates than a bacon sandwich.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Sep 9. 2019
PG&E’s Reorganization Plan—Cap Wildfire Liabilities at $18 Billion
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Sep 9, 2019
Stripped-back auto show in Frankfurt mirrors German car industry gloom
By Staff, Times Now News, Sep 8, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Cannibal for the Planet: Save the world, eat human flesh?
Just one step closer to Aztec climate control:
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 10, 2019
Delingpole: Ship of Fools VI – Arctic ‘Global Warming’ Mission Scuppered by Mysterious Hard White Substance
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Sep 9, 2019 [H/t Jim Buell]
The entire Australian temperature record in five minutes
Entrancing dance of data by Tony Heller (aka Steve Goddard).
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 7, 2019
[SEPP Comment: No significant warming since 1900 put to music.]
1. China to Exempt U.S. Soybeans and Pork From Punitive Tariffs
Measure follows President Trump’s two-week postponement of increased tariffs on some Chinese goods
By Chao Deng in Beijing and Lucy Craymer in Hong Kong, WSJ, Sep 13, 2019
TWTW Summary: The journalists write:
“China will exempt purchases of U.S. soybeans, pork and other agricultural products from punitive tariffs, in a move that appears aimed at addressing one of President Trump’s most pressing demands during the protracted trade war.
“China’s official Xinhua News Agency said the government would support purchases of U.S. agricultural products by Chinese companies and waive the tariffs that Beijing has imposed as trade tensions have flared. The report didn’t specify the amount of products affected by the measure, which was attributed to the country’s Commerce Ministry and its main economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission.
“The U.S. and China are seeking ways to break a deadlock in the continuing trade war before the next round of high-level negotiations, scheduled to take place in Washington in early October.
“Both sides have made goodwill gestures in recent days. On Wednesday, President Trump delayed a new round of tariff increases on $250 billion of imports from China that would have taken effect Oct. 1, the 70th anniversary of Communist Chinese rule—an apparent concession that the state-media report cited in justifying the lifting of tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods.
“Beijing is separately looking to narrow the scope of its negotiations with the U.S. to only trade matters, seeking to set aside thornier national-security issues for now and place them on a different track, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.
“China’s latest move could get a positive reception from Mr. Trump, who said after a Group of 20 leaders’ meeting in June that President Xi Jinping had agreed to make purchases of large amounts of U.S. farm goods.
“China, for its part, made no official mention of such a commitment after the meeting, and The Wall Street Journal reported that Mr. Xi had made no such promise.
“Mr. Trump has since complained about what he regards as China’s backsliding on its commitment to buy U.S. farm products.
“The new measure is also likely to be cheered by U.S. farmers growing soybeans in Illinois, raising cattle in Texas and feeding hogs in North Carolina, all of whom have seen business suffer and prices fall as a result of tariffs that Chinese officials began implementing last year.
“China has been one of the largest export destinations for U.S. agricultural commodities since 2009. However, U.S. agricultural exports to China halved in 2018 and were down a further 20% in the first six months of this year. This fall in demand has hurt prices for U.S.-produced commodities and added to the financial challenges already facing American farmers.
“Factors beyond the trade war might be behind China’s lifting of tariffs on items such as pork, a staple of the national diet. A yearlong outbreak of deadly African swine fever has ravaged the country’s hog population, and Beijing has struggled in recent weeks to increase pork supply, from pushing farming incentives to rationing and even opening its emergency pork reserves.”
The article then speculates on issues that have not been fully resolved.
2. Canada’s Oil Market Finds Outlet in U.S. Demand
Canadian exports have jumped since the U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil giant
By Vipal Monga, WSJ, Sep 12, 2019
TWTW Summary: The journalist writes:
“A glut of oil in Canada is easing, thanks to higher demand for dense crude from U.S. Gulf Coast refineries and government-imposed production cuts that have offset a shortage of pipeline capacity.
“Canadian oil stockpiles have fallen to their lowest level since November 2017, with inventories dropping below 26 million barrels as of Aug. 30, according to data provider Genscape.
“The development is a shift from roughly a year ago. Back then, Canadian oil prices traded at a discount of more than $51 a barrel to the U.S. benchmark, according to S&P Global Platts. The reason? Congested pipelines prevented the country’s producers from getting their oil out.
“A resulting increase in inventories, which added to the pressure on prices, prompted the Alberta provincial government in December to order producers to cut output. This year, a U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil has narrowed the gap between Western Canadian Select and U.S. West Texas Intermediate. On Wednesday, the difference was about $13 a barrel.
“In January, the U.S. imposed sanctions on the South American country’s state-owned oil giant, putting at risk roughly 500,000 barrels of shipment a day. Canadian exports to the U.S. have jumped, as refiners along the Gulf Coast scrambled to fill the gap.
“‘The U.S. Gulf is structurally short of heavy, sour crudes,’ said RBC Capital Markets energy analyst Michael Tran, referring to the grade of dense crude oil produced in Venezuela and Canada.
“While output from U.S. oil companies has been plentiful, much of the crude produced from shale drilling is ‘light,’ meaning it has a low density, and ‘sweet,’ or low in sulfur. Many U.S. refineries are configured to process some heavy, sour crude to produce fuels like gasoline and diesel.”
The article continues with discussion of specific import figures and speculation of the future.
[SEPP Comment: Last year, occasionally in the spot market Canadian crude was almost given away. The article again demonstrates that crude oil is not fungible, as commonly assumed. Refineries are designed around the characteristics of the particular crude oil that is most easily delivered to them, and their products are also unique.]