The GWPF 2019 Temperature Prediction Competition

Benny Peiser writes:

It would be great if you would encourage your readers to participate in our 2019 Global Temperature Prediction Competition.

Here the the description from The GWPF website

Date: 08/02/19
Global Warming Policy Forum

With GWPF readers having trounced the Met Office at predicting temperatures for 2018, it will very interesting to see if you can do just as well for 2019.

So we hereby announce the 2019 HadCRUT temperature prediction competition. Once again, the opportunity is there to win some magnificent prizes: more whisky, and your choice of a book from the growing range of GWPF titles.

Of course the real prize on offer is to do better than the boys in Exeter. The Met Office are again being very aggressive on the warming front. They are predicting a 0.19°C warming next year (!), plus or minus 0.12°C. So their predicted range is 0.67-0.91°C.

So will carbon dioxide sweep all before it as they think? Will temperatures creep back further, shoot back up again, or will they keep sliding away? Will El Nino kick in, or will La Nina dominate?  Your guess is probably as good as mine, but – if experience is anything to go by – probably better than the Met Office’s.

Enter here

 

HT/Benny Peiser

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Krishna Gans
February 9, 2019 10:20 am

Done

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Krishna Gans
February 9, 2019 12:37 pm

I won’t venture a guess as to what their calculated “warming” will be for next year ….. but I will predict what the maximum CO2 ppm will be for fiscal 2019 as per measured/reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory

My prediction: atmospheric CO2 will reach its yearly maximum of 413.03 ppm on May 17, 2019, …… which will be a 1.79 ppm increase from 2018’s max of 411.24 ppm.

Cheers

Robert B
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
February 9, 2019 4:09 pm

Glad someone has cottoned on.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Robert B
February 10, 2019 4:10 am

“cottoned”, ….. huh?

I’m not familiar with its intended meaning..

old white guy
Reply to  Samuel C Cogar
February 10, 2019 4:18 am

as in grasped.

Joe Crawford
February 9, 2019 10:22 am

May I’ve forgotten my math but isn’t 0.19C +/- 0.12C is 0.07C to 0.31C. ?

Max Dupilka
Reply to  Joe Crawford
February 9, 2019 10:32 am

That’s the first thing that caught my eye. What are missing here?

Bryan A
Reply to  Max Dupilka
February 9, 2019 12:36 pm

It is the predicted amount of additional warming above the current anomaly

Rich Davis
Reply to  Joe Crawford
February 9, 2019 11:16 am

That’s the range of possible changes. Current anomaly is 0.60

Greg
Reply to  Rich Davis
February 9, 2019 12:19 pm

cdm should add that little snippet of info back in. The whole thing is rather out of context and confusing without it.

0.19C +/- 0.12C or 0.19C +/- 63%

so it’s like: here’s out best guess but it could be three times smaller.

at some stage on the way to making predictions approaching +/- 100% you need to admit you have no idea. 😉

Rich Davis
Reply to  Greg
February 9, 2019 1:15 pm

Don’t forget that we are now in the climate disruption extreme weirding regime. Everything will happen now. Cats and dogs living together!

Remarkable though that they are predicting a MINIMUM warming rate of 0.7C per decade. It seems extremely likely, almost certain, that the true answer will be well below the bottom of their range.

Phil
Reply to  Rich Davis
February 10, 2019 1:31 am

At this very moment there are two cats and a dog curled up on my bed. We’re all doomed!

Rich Davis
Reply to  Rich Davis
February 10, 2019 8:52 am

It’s worse than we thought. Stop burning fossil fuels. We need more socialism!

Dennis Kuzara
Reply to  Joe Crawford
February 9, 2019 1:09 pm

The Met Office are again being very aggressive on the warming front. They are predicting a 0.19°C warming next year (!), plus or minus 0.12°C. So their predicted range is 0.67-0.91°C.

They are predicting an increase of .19°C over last year which was 0.596°C over the 1850 to 1900 average. (i.e. the official value of the 1850 to 1900 HadCRUT4 global temperature average). Add .569 + .19 = .759 and you get the average increase next year of .759°C.

However their range is .19°C +/- .12°C or a range from +.07°C to +.31°C over last year.
Therefore the range is .569 +.07 = .639°C and .569 + .013 = .879°C

If you round off the .569°C to .6°C (not sure why they did that sloppy rounding) then the range is from .6 + .07= .67°C to .6 + .031 = .91°C

And that is how they got the numbers .67°C to .91°C increase over the 1850 to 1900 global average.

Dennis Kuzara
Reply to  Dennis Kuzara
February 9, 2019 1:25 pm

I got dyslexic on the actual .596°C value and used .569°C above. That also explains the “sloppy rounding” comment. Other than that….

Bellman
Reply to  Dennis Kuzara
February 9, 2019 1:41 pm

The linked MO page makes no mention of 0.19°C. It predicts 2019 as being 1.1 ­± 0.12 °C above the 1850-1900 period. By my calculation this would be about 0.79°C compared with their normal base period of 1961-1990, about 0.01°C cooler than 2016.

DWR54
Reply to  Bellman
February 9, 2019 11:16 pm

Bellman

By my calculation this would be about 0.79°C compared with their normal base period of 1961-1990, about 0.01°C cooler than 2016.

Yes, and it would need to be at least 0.67°C to fall within the MO’s lower estimate range.

MarkW
Reply to  Dennis Kuzara
February 9, 2019 2:43 pm

How many people believe we know what the temperature of the earth was to 0.001C in 1850?

Mark - Helsinki
Reply to  MarkW
February 10, 2019 5:05 am

Who believes we know what the temp is to within .001c today? 😉

Tom Abbott
February 9, 2019 10:25 am

“Date: 08/02/19”

I thought I was in a time machine for a second! 🙂

Javier
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 9, 2019 11:05 am

It gets clearer after the 12th of the month.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 9, 2019 2:44 pm

International format, day/month/year

michael hart
Reply to  MarkW
February 9, 2019 2:59 pm

Yes, it makes sense in the same way as hours/minutes/seconds or hundreds/tens/units. The values increase or decrease in a consistent pattern.

Bellman
Reply to  MarkW
February 9, 2019 5:06 pm

International format is year-month-day. Which is the only format that makes sense if you want to go most to least significant digit.

TRM
Reply to  Bellman
February 10, 2019 1:22 pm

Also if you are doing log files and have YYYY-MM-DD then they sort themselves when you list them. Geek stuff 🙂

old white guy
Reply to  MarkW
February 10, 2019 4:20 am

yet we write month, day, year.

Steve richards
Reply to  old white guy
February 10, 2019 6:12 am

Do we? I don’t

John W. Garrett
February 9, 2019 10:26 am

“…They are predicting a 0.19°C warming next year (!), plus or minus 0.12°C. So their predicted range is 0.67-0.91°C…”

Eh? What am I missing?

0.19° +/- 0.12° produces a range of 0.07° to 0.32°

February 9, 2019 10:30 am

There is an error in current value of anomaly ?

Reply to  vukcevic
February 9, 2019 11:42 am

Making predictions is a bit of a mug’s game, but with a bit of wiggle matching based on the 22 year solar magnetic cycle, which features prominently in the both hemispheres’ spectral composition I get
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/HC4-pred.htm
thus my guess (in no way better than anyone else’s) for the 2019 HadCRUT4 global temperature anomaly is +0.59 degree C.

B.J.
February 9, 2019 10:31 am

” They are predicting a 0.19°C warming next year (!), plus or minus 0.12°C. So their predicted range is 0.67-0.91°C.”
Shouldn’t it be 0.31- 0.07 “C ?

Bryan A
Reply to  B.J.
February 9, 2019 12:37 pm

It’s their predicted increase to the current anomaly of 0.6C

Tom Abbott
February 9, 2019 10:31 am

I’ll bet 2019 is cooler than 2018.

Javier
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 9, 2019 10:35 am

What are you betting? It will be warmer in HadCRUT 4.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 9, 2019 10:44 am

I better add: According to the UAH satellite record.

I wouldn’t trust HadCRUT for anything.

William Astley
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 9, 2019 2:01 pm

UAH 0.15C TO 0.5C which is – 0.47C +/- from the 2016 peak from predictions of the correlation of the changes in mid-ocean earthquakes that precedes by two years each past warming spike.

https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/have-global-temperatures-reached-a-tipping-point-2573-458X-1000149.pdf

there is a 95% probability that global temperatures in 2019 will decline by 0.47°C ± 0.21°C from their 2016 peak. In other words, there is a 95% probability that 2019 temperatures will drop to levels not seen since the mid-1990s.

Javier
February 9, 2019 10:33 am

Gosh. It is 0.60°C (2018 average) +0.19±0.12
so from 0.60 + 0.07 = 0.67
to 0.60 + 0.31 = 0.91
Range predicted 0.67-0.91°C

Max Dupilka
Reply to  Javier
February 9, 2019 10:39 am

Ok. Missed that. Thanks.

Greg
Reply to  Max Dupilka
February 9, 2019 10:56 am

You did not miss it, it was not included in the snippet provided.

cdm may like to add the critical sentence that got left out: “The current value is 0.60. “

Reply to  Javier
February 9, 2019 11:56 am

their prediction range band of 0.24C is far too wide, for the temperatures quoted on the website to 3 decimal points (2018 = 0.596) they just as well could have rounded it off to 0.5 – 1.0 C .

Bryan A
Reply to  vukcevic
February 9, 2019 12:38 pm

But then they would be correct

Dan Barasch
February 9, 2019 10:33 am

assume the .67-.91 range is for the anomaly over the time period ?

Alex
February 9, 2019 10:40 am

Competition in temperature PREDICTION?
The one who has the thermometer wins.

Greg
Reply to  Alex
February 9, 2019 10:58 am

Thermometers can always be corrected. More like : the one who controls the dataset wins.

Reply to  Greg
February 9, 2019 11:08 am

“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.”
― George Orwell, 1984

Wharfplank
Reply to  Ralph Dave Westfall
February 9, 2019 11:48 am

I don’t care who casts the votes, I care who counts the votes.

Bellman
Reply to  Alex
February 9, 2019 5:14 pm

Yet they didn’t change 2018’s results to agree with their predictions.

Gary
February 9, 2019 10:51 am

Predicting the HADCRUT4 anomaly is hard because not only do you have to get the temperature right, you have to figure out how much thumb they have on the scale.

Javier
Reply to  Gary
February 9, 2019 11:03 am

Games have always been rigged and people still bet. You just have to estimate the rigging.

Javier
February 9, 2019 10:59 am

I don’t know what they smoke at Met Office but I would like some of it because it looks strong.

+0.19°C is a huge increase. From 2014 to 2015 the huge El Niño added +0.18°C. So they are predicting an even bigger El Niño for 2020. They won’t get it. Such large Niños drain the subsurface heat so much that they can’t be repeated for quite a few years even when a big La Niña helps with the recharge. And we didn’t have any big Niña since 2016.

Adding ±0.12°C on top of that big exaggeration indicates they are heavily UID. We need to abolish the laws of physics or get a large asteroid to warm the Earth +0.31°C in a calendar year. There is only one precedent in the entire HadCRUT 4 database. It happened in 1877 when temperature measurements couldn’t be trusted much, and when one the biggest El Niño in recorded history killed millions of people all over the world. It was +0.306°C.

Such is the idiocy we face everyday now.

DWR54
Reply to  Javier
February 9, 2019 11:28 pm

The lower end of their estimate works out at 0.98C above the 1850-1900 average, which is 0.66-0.67C on their 1961-90 anomaly base. That’s just 0.07C warmer than 2018 and cooler than 2015/16/17.

jim heath
February 9, 2019 11:09 am

It staggers me that people worry about a harmless gas that’s .03% of the atmosphere of which we contribute a fraction of, when the magnetic poles of this planet are thousands of klm from where they were a couple of hundred years ago. Maybe we need a “pole model” so these crackpots can earn a quid modelling?

Malcolm Carter
February 9, 2019 11:11 am

Wondering why the prediction is for only 2019. It seems that a random guess would have as good a chance of winning. With all those billions spent on supercomputers surely they could predict the average anomaly for 2029. Then the real betting could start.

Javier
Reply to  Malcolm Carter
February 9, 2019 11:45 am

It seems that a random guess would have as good a chance of winning.

Nope. It is a normal distribution. Most of the results fall between -0.15 and +0.15°C.

The correct range would be 0.45-0.75°C. That has a disproportionate chance of winning.
The 0.67-0.91°C range from Met Office is too high. Only the lower values of the range have a high chance.

If I was Adam Scaife, head of long range prediction at the Met Office, and I wanted to forecast warming, I would have forecasted a warming of 0.08°C ±0.07 for a 0.68°C forecast with a 0.61-0.75°C range. If there is warming there is an 85% chance that it will be within that range. But of course that doesn’t look scary. It is clear that they don’t pretend to be correct.

Greg
Reply to  Javier
February 9, 2019 12:52 pm

when predicting a conserved quantity under a normally distributed random change, this year’s average is the best estimation for next year’s average, without applying any climate knowledge whatsoever.

The estimated uncertainty would be +/- one standard dev.

It seems that UK Met Orifice take a wider spread since there is less obvious shame is issuing an enormous uncertainty than there is in getting it wrong outside your declared margin. This also allows them to edge towards “a warmer world” and provide a hotter average to pet jounro hacks for alarmist “expert” opinion.

Since UAH looks like we are hitting the bottom of the post El Nino cooling curve, I’d take the end of last year as the best estimation for next year’s mean.

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Greg
February 9, 2019 2:06 pm

Where have you ever seen an explanation of how the Met Office derives any +/- terms?
The Australian BOM has declined for a year now, with several reminders, to reveal its +/- for daily temperatures from customary weather stations.
You should have a parallel competition to see who can make the best forecast of their error terms. At the moment, error terms often look like convenient numbers with little scientific validity, shown to pay lip service to hard science conventions. Geoff

SMC
February 9, 2019 11:19 am

I predict it’ll be the hottest year ever!!!

Jones
Reply to  SMC
February 9, 2019 11:35 am

Even when it isn’t! Lol.

Rich Davis
February 9, 2019 11:21 am

I registered my guess as 0.46 but of course that can only win (after “adjustments”) if the true anomaly is -0.50

Javier
February 9, 2019 11:50 am

Mods, one of my comments went missing. I only talked about drugs. I promise there was no sex or profanities, nor racial or gender offensive comments. Drugs are OK, aren’t they?

Jeez. This comment is also going to be sequestered by the filter police.

Jenn
February 9, 2019 11:52 am

The winner will be the one with the highest temperature prediction and actual temperature readings will be adjusted accordingly.

Dr Deanster
February 9, 2019 12:05 pm

I will predict it will be catastrophic.

Pillage Idiot
Reply to  Dr Deanster
February 9, 2019 2:41 pm

I predict the actual weather/climate will be “even worse” than you predicted.

February 9, 2019 12:28 pm

While not climate come weather, I am reminded of what Joseph Stalin is said to have said.

Its not the number of votes which matters, its who counts the votes”.

We have over so many years seen blatant example of fiddles being carried out by taxpayers funded bodies, that its very hard to know what is good data, or just adjusted stuff.

MJE

01 Cat
February 9, 2019 1:47 pm

Can anyone tell me where I can buy a thermometer that reads to two decimal places please!

Richard Patton
Reply to  01 Cat
February 9, 2019 2:14 pm

Depends on what type and how much you want to spend. A liquid in glass (mercury or alcohol) is marked to nearest degree and the observer is supposed to estimate to the nearest tenth (this is how it was done up until the ’70’s to ’80’s. Now you can get a digital one to even the nearest thousandth of a degree, but it will cost you a *lot* of money. The digital thermometers used for observation read to the nearest 1/10. But when 2/3’s of your 200 year long term record is only precise to 1deg and estimated to 1/10deg, you can’t claim any warming (or cooling) any closer than +/- 0.1F (since Englands records were recorded in F until the 70’s or 80’s.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Richard Patton
February 10, 2019 5:46 am

The temperatures may have been estimated to the one tenth in order to round them when they were read, but they are recorded in integer values which makes them +/- 0.5 degrees. Any temperature inside that range has an equal probability of occurring. Any temperature projection less than that range is simply noise since there is no way to predict what the correct value was.

Richard Patton
Reply to  Jim Gorman
February 10, 2019 11:03 am

You are more than likely right. But recording it to the nearest degree was before my era. We recorded it to the nearest 1/10 degree which as I said was estimated. The point is, and I believe you agree with me, is that to say that it is the warmest (or coldest) by anything closer than +/- 0.3d (or even 0.5deg) is comparing apples to bananas. The problem is that many people still believe that if you take a lot of imprecise, inaccurate measurements and average them together you will get a precise, accurate result.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Richard Patton
February 10, 2019 5:24 pm

The real question is “a precise, accurate result” of what? Someone has to explain something to me about how you can take one measurement of temperature or anything then average it with one additional reading of something else, i.e., a temperature reading a day later and get something more accurate that the measurement error of the original readings.

I am working on an essay that discusses some of this. Hopefully it will at least make some folks think about what they are doing.

DWR54
Reply to  01 Cat
February 9, 2019 11:34 pm

You don’t need one. Just average a few thousand readings from thermometers calibrated to one decimal place and you can quote the result to as many decimal places as you like. The precision is the result of the averaging process, not the calibration of the instruments.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  DWR54
February 10, 2019 6:01 am

Did you mean this to be sarcastic?

You may get a very accurate mean value but it also means nothing. Calculate the standard deviation to 3 sigma’s and see what your error range really is.

Keith
February 9, 2019 2:25 pm

You mean, a “Guess how lead-meltingly hot HadCRU and the Met Office are going to claim 2019 was” competition?

I’ll go for Hottest Year Evah. How that compares to Dr Spencer’s more reliable data is another question.

Robert B
February 9, 2019 4:20 pm

The existing data is fiction so its impossible to test any theory. There is a strong 60 year oscillation in the NH, with an amplitude that has been reduced with adjustments over the years. What has happened in the SH before 1980 is fiction so we really have no idea of how any theory fits what really happened, and unlikely to have reliable measure of the change from this year. More than likely that they would pull out the jigger if a cool year.

Dr. Strangelove
February 9, 2019 7:53 pm

Anybody can make predictions. But what is the underlying physical theory for such a prediction? People love to do statistics of random numbers. The probability of success can be quantified just like in games of chance. That is interesting math but not interesting physics.

Reply to  Dr. Strangelove
February 10, 2019 2:06 am

Indeed.
On the other hand there are some physical processes which are clear in the data but there is no available supporting theory. In my post above I used simple 22 year (solar magnetic cycle) repeating pattern as seen
here
to make a prediction (with the proviso it’s a mug’s game). The repeating pattern it is very unlikely to continue much longer, but it is a good base as any to start from.

Johann Wundersamer
February 10, 2019 5:41 am

“Will El Nino kick in, or will La Nina dominate? ”

El Niño already kicked in.

After La Niña built up domi nance over 2 years – following > 6 years El Niño dominance.
__________________________________________________

Interestingly “homicide” is “dominance:

The base word is”home”, domus.

__________________________________________________

https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-samsung&q=dominant+etymologie&spell=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwixlIuRpbHgAhWDxIsKHZvXBsAQBSgAegQICxAC&biw=360&bih=560

Johann Wundersamer
February 10, 2019 5:52 am

Dominus as in Dominium,

Dominican Republic aka: domrep vs. Haiti.

ren
February 10, 2019 11:08 am

Anomaly in 2019 will be around 0.35 degrees C.
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ren
Reply to  ren
February 10, 2019 11:14 am

The temperature will fall heavily now in Australia.

ren
Reply to  ren
February 10, 2019 11:22 am

El Niño is moving away.
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ren
February 10, 2019 11:17 am

Forecast of stratospheric intrusion over northern California.
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