The Week That Was: 2019-01-26 (January 26, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Observations or Theory? Last week’s TWTW discussed the weather engine, a process illustrated in a graph in the Kiehl and Trenberth’s paper on the “Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget.” Energy from the sun causes water vapor and evapotranspiration to rise in the atmosphere, then condense into liquid water (or ice) in the upper troposphere giving off latent heat centered about 9 to 11 km (30,000 to 36,000 feet). This was the apparent source of the tropical “hot spot” used by climate modelers and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers. It provided the argument in the 1979 Charney Report that an increase water vapor would dramatically increase the greenhouse gas effect of carbon dioxide (CO2).
The 2018 McKitrick and Christy paper demonstrated that 60 years of weather balloon data have shown no such significant warming is taking place over the tropics at a pressure between 300 to 200 millibars (mb) (roughly 9 to 11 km). Without this component, predictions of dire greenhouse gas warming, as described in government-supported publications, is not occurring. The issue is not that the Kiehl and Trenberth model incorrectly describes the process, but that the process is not intensifying as estimated by the global climate modelers and asserted in the Charney Report and by the IPCC.
The absence of a “hot spot” creates a major issue among those examining climate science. Which dominates in science – observations or theory? Put differently, one may accept that a model may describe a natural process, statically, with no other changes; but that does not mean that the model describes the process dynamically, with other changes. If the model does not describe the processes dynamically, the model has no predictive skill. The predictive skill of a model is determined by verification and validation. Those questioning the predictive skill of a model are not questioning “the science” of the discerption by the model, but that of the model’s predictive ability.
In No Tricks Zone, Pierre Gosselin posted a film by Dutch filmmaker Marijn Poels. About 1 hour 9 minutes into the film, Poels interviews renown theoretical physicist and mathematician Freeman Dyson who addressed this issue. Dyson asserted that the models are wrong if they disagree with observations:
“Nature should be the deciding voice who is right and who is wrong.”
As John Christy and his team at University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) have repeatedly asserted, the models overestimate the warming of the atmosphere by 2.5 to 3 times. There is no reason to accept long-term forecasts / projections / predictions from such models. If anyone is “anti-science,” it is those who accept theory over observations.
Among other comments, not necessarily in order and not exact quotes, Dyson states that:
· Unfortunately, the global warming issue has become too political with strong political dogmas on both sides.
· There are two types of information: observations and theories. Generally, you can believe the observations, observations of greening of the planet are clear; but, the theories of climate are confused.
· Climate models are a very good tool for understanding climate, but a very bad tool for predicting climate.
The next TWTW will begin exploring what may be a better model for predicting the influence of increasing CO2 on climate, than the current, commonly accepted climate models. Note: reader Christopher Game correctly objected to the use of the additional term, “heat engine,” to describe the “weather engine” process. Although it is frequently used in the literature, TWTW will avoid using it. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.
A Karl Disclaimer? Last week’s TWTW discussed a new paper on ocean heat content by Cheng, L.J. et al., including 3 US co-authors. The discussion included severe criticisms by Roy Spencer, Judith Curry, and David Whitehouse. Although it was highlighted, TWTW did not discuss an interesting note accompanying the paper:
“We appreciate Tim BOYER from NOAA/NCEI to provide the in-situ ocean observations from NOAA/NCEI that were used in this analysis.”
As linked but not discussed in TWTW, the Department of Commerce engaged MITRE, an independent not-for-profit entity, to objectively assess the processes used to develop and publish the so-called Karl Study, “Possible Artifacts of Data Biases in the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus,” published in Science Magazine on June 26, 2015. Karl retired from government service in 2016. Although released to the public last week, the report was finished in July 2018. The report is titled: “Assessment of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Scientific Integrity Policies and Procedures: As Applied to the 2015 Dr. Thomas Karl, et al., Science Paper: ‘Possible Artifacts of Data Biases in the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus.’”
The MITRE report found no wrong doing by the authors of the Karl Study, which claimed there was no “global warming pause” between 1998 and 2015. Of course, the surface data contradicts atmospheric data, which shows a pause and is far more comprehensive.
“However, the MITRE Committee determined that the 2013 NOAA guidelines were ambiguous and not clear on when the more stringent agency IQA [Information Quality Act] review requirements should apply. In 2016, NOAA updated the Framework for Internal Review and Approval to reference the OMB exemption. While this new language is an improvement over the 2013 NOAA guidance, it should be written more clearly and presented more prominently in the guidance.”
“Because the NOAA officials knew in advance of publication that the paper would be influential, impactful, and controversial, the authors of the Karl Study should have included a disclaimer in the paper to indicate that the views expressed in the paper represented the opinions of the authors and, as indicated with the guideline suggested in the NOAA Framework for Internal Review and Approval, that it ‘did not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or the Department of Commerce.’”
John Bates, the retired NOAA employee whose concerns prompted the investigation. Similar to the objections by Gates, TWTW had significant problems with the reconstructions of surface temperature trends embodied in the study. Of special concern are the poor quality and coverage of the land surface data use prior to 1930, extending back to 1850; and the use sea surface temperature databases that were compiled using vastly different measurement techniques – buckets, ship intakes, and Argo free-floating buoys. As stated, the MITRE found no wrongdoing and the confidence intervals use were consisted with IPCC standards.
Apparently, IPCC standards of not using atmospheric temperature data are accepted in the US government even though the US entities, such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), have the Congressional mandate to consider both human and natural causes of climate change. The IPCC has no requirement to consider natural causes of climate change.
The comment in the Cheng et al. paper “We appreciate Tim Boyer from NOAA/NCEI to provide the in-situ ocean observations from NOAA/NCEI that were used in this analysis” prompts questions. Were the data the same as in the Karl Study? Were the Chinese co-authors informed of the MITRE report and its recommendations such as the data and any associated paper “represented the opinions of the authors” and “did not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or the Department of Commerce.” There may be a new disclaimer needed when government employees publish ‘independent” papers. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
Another Look: Ostracized by the global warming tribe, Judith Curry is taking another look at the global warming that occurred prior to 1950. On Climate Etc. she covers “some fine research on multi-decadal to millennial scale internal variability by Xie et al., Kravtsov, Huybers et al., Meehl et al. and others. And it all gets ignored by the circular reasoning of formal attribution studies.” Then she reflects:
“In order to have any confidence in the IPCC and NCA [National Climate Assessment] attribution statements, much greater effort is needed to understand the role multi-decadal to millennial scales of internal climate variability.
“Much more effort is needed to understand not only the early 20th century warming, but also the ‘grand hiatus’ from 1945-1975. Attempting to attribute these features to aerosol (stratospheric or pollution) forcing haven’t gotten us very far. The approach taken by Xie’s group is providing important insights.
“Once we do satisfactorily explain these 20th century features, then we need to tackle the 19th century — overall warming, with global sea level rise initiating ~1860, and NH [Northern Hemisphere] glacier melt initiating ~1850. And then we need to tackle the last 800 years – the Little Ice Age and the ‘recovery’. (See my previous post 400 years(?) of global warming). The mainstream attribution folk are finally waking up to the importance of multidecadal ocean oscillations — we have barely scratched the surface re understanding century to millennial scale oscillations, as highlighted in the recent Gebbie and Huybers paper discussed on Ocean Heat Content Surprises.
“There are too many climate scientists that expect global surface temperature, sea ice, glacier mass loss and sea level to follow the ‘forcing’ on fairly short time scales. This is not how the climate system works, as was eloquently shown by Gebbie and Huybers. The Arctic in particular responds very strongly to multidecadal and longer internal variability, and also to solar forcing.
“Until all this is sorted out, we do not have a strong basis for attributing anything close to ~100% of the warming since 1950 to humans, or for making credible projections of 21st century climate change.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
By 2020? The U.S. Energy Information Administration, specializing in independent statistics and energy analysis, released its annual energy outlook for 2019. It contains assertions that would have been considered impossible a few years ago. These include:
“In the Reference case, U.S. crude oil production continues to set annual records through the mid-2020s and remains greater than 14.0 million barrels per day (b/d) through 2040.
“The United States becomes a net energy exporter by 2020. In the Reference case, the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum liquids in 2020 as U.S. crude oil production increases and domestic consumption of petroleum products decreases. The United States continues to be a net exporter of natural gas and coal (including coal coke) through 2050.
“U.S. net exports of natural gas continue to grow as liquefied natural gas becomes an increasingly significant export. In the Reference case, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and pipeline exports to Canada and to Mexico increase until 2030 and then flatten through 2050 as relatively low, stable natural gas prices make U.S. natural gas competitive in North American and global markets.
Supported by “state-of-the-art” computer models, forty years ago, most “experts” in Washington believed the nation would run out of oil and natural gas within a few years. Federal energy policy was determined by this belief. Fortunately, independent oil and gas producers began to challenge the belief. The remarkable turn-around demonstrates the folly of governments basing policy on models that are not rigorously tested. See links under Energy Issues – US.
Amplifications and Corrections: Reader Clyde Spencer alertly noted a blunder in last week’s TWTW. It stated: “Ice melting in a water glass is another example of a phase change: one that releases energy.” The correct statement is: Ice melting in a water glass without changing temperature of the water is another example of a phase change: one that absorbs energy from the surrounding atmosphere, if it is warmer. TWTW thanks those who take the time to correct such errors.
Number of the Week: 250 Million MW short. According to Jo Nova, on January 25 the State Energy Minister, Lily D’Ambrosio, for the State of Victoria, Australia, announced “there would ‘absolutely’ be no blackouts this morning … the rolling blackouts started 90 minutes later.” “More than 200,000 Victorian households had their power cut off …in a bid to protect the state’s energy system from shutting down.” Of course, the politicians responsible for replacing power plants using fossil fuels with wind and solar demanded the public “be reasonable.” The blackout included the state capitol, Melbourne, which historic records show had been as hot or hotter about 50 times since 1855.
This event is another example of how unreliable and unpredictable wind and solar are in generating electricity. Many politicians are so infected with green propaganda that they have lost all sense of reason. Should they be called “green zombies?” See links under Energy Issues – Australia.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Munich Conference: Leading Danish Astrophysicist Says Solar Activity Has Significant Impact On Global Climate
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 22, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Video of an EIKE presentation by Henrik Svensmark in English.]
Microsoft Now Decides if Climate Change News or Other Content is Reliable
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 24, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Microsoft does not honestly state that “green energy” it is getting from the grid is from renewables because the sources cannot be distinguished once on the grid. Why believe Microsoft will unbiasedly determine if a source is reliable?]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Draft Summary for Policymakers, NIPCC, 2019
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Challenging the Orthodoxy
UAH Global Temperature Update for December 2018: +0.25 deg. C
2018 was 6th Warmest Year Globally of Last 40 Years
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 2, 2019
December 2018 Maps and Graphs
Including 40 Year Trend (Jan 1979 to Dec 2018)
By Staff, ESSC Global Temperature Report, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Accessed Jan 4, 2019
Renowned Physicist Freeman Dyson: “Theories Of Climate Are Very Confused”…”Models Are Wrong”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 16, 2018
Atmospheric Physicists: A Human Signature Hasn’t Shown Up In 40 Years Of Temperature Change Observations
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 24, 2019
Link to paper: Has global warming already arrived?
By C.A.Varotsos and M.N.Efstathiou, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Jan 2019
Early 20th century global warming
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jan 23, 2019
Mao et al 2019 Show an Upcoming 1-Deg C + Decline in Global Land Surface Temperatures by the Early 2100s
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Jan 21, 2019
Link to paper: The “Ocean Stabilization Machine” May Represent a Primary Factor Underlying the Effect of “Global Warming on Climate Change”
By Yanjun Mao, Jiqing Tan, Bomin Chen, Huiyi Fan, Scientific Research, Jan 2019
The Climate Non-Problem…Major Aspects Of Japan’s Climate Have Seen No Change In 100 Years
By Kirye in Tokyo, No Tricks Zone, Jan 25, 2019
New Paper: Modern Warming Was Driven By ‘Primarily Natural’ Factors. Global Cooling Has Now Begun.
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 21, 2019
New Ocean Warming Paper Contains “Factual Errors and Misleading Statements’
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Jan 22, 2019
Paper by Nic Lewis: Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought? – An analysis of Cheng et al (2019), Science 1
By Nic Lewis, Not published, Jan 21, 2019
Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought?
By Nic Lewis, Climate Etc. Jan 21, 2019
UPDATE: response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended
Perceptions and Reality about Climate Change
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Jan 25, 2019
Global Warming Myth Debunked: Humans Have Minimal Impact on Atmosphere’s Carbon Dioxide and Climate
By Jay Lehr & Tom Harris, Western Journal, Jan 22, 2019
Defending the Orthodoxy
Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate
By Jule G. Charney, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chairman, et al. to the:
Climate Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council, National Academy of Science, 1979
By J. T. Kiehl and Kevin E. Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997
Figure 7, page 206
Claim: Climate change tipping point could be coming sooner than we think
By Charles the moderator, WUWT, Jan 25, 2019
Link to paper: Large influence of soil moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake
By Julia Green, Nature, Jan 23, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Using results from poorly tested climate models which cannot describe the ongoing greenhouse gas effect to estimate future release of CO2 from soils?]
Greenland ice melting four times faster than in 2003, study finds
Southwest part of the island could be major contributor to sea level rise
By Staff Writers, EurekAlert!, Jan 21, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: Accelerating changes in ice mass within Greenland, and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to atmospheric forcing
By Michael Bevis, et al. PNAS, Jan 22, 2019
From the paper: “The decadal acceleration in mass loss in southwest Greenland arose due to the combination of sustained global warming and positive fluctuations in temperature and insolation driven by the NAO.”
From the abstract: “The strongest accelerations tracked the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).”
[SEPP Comment: From a study covering ten years, great conclusions arise?]
Protecting monarch butterflies’ winter home could mean moving hundreds of trees
Researchers are trying to shift Mexico’s oyamel firs to higher elevations to help them weather warming temperatures.
By Giorgia Guglielmi, Nature, Jan 21, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: Has anyone tried thermometers to see if temperatures are actually rising?]
Slowing Down For The Climate: German Evangelical Church Petitioning For Speed Limit On ‘Autobahns’
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 19, 2019
“According to the MZ: ‘The Central German Church [broadcasts] covers large parts of Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia and has about 700,000 members.’ The Church’s main reason for limiting the speed of cars to 130 km/hr [80 mph] on the autobahn is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and exhaust fumes, which the Church says would translate to an emissions reduction of 2 – 2.5%.”
Questioning the Orthodoxy
A history of Dr. Ben Santer and his IPCC “trick”
Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, Jan 24, 2019
‘Settled Science’ Is Going the Way of BuzzFeed
By Brian C. Joondeph, American Thinker, Jan 25, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Causation versus association, is it the exposure to sunlight indicated by humans creating vitamin D that is beneficial, not vitamin D itself?]
Paris Accord Increases Use of Coal
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 25, 20119
Coal and the future of Energy
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 22, 2019
“Climate regulations to curtail CO2 emissions would deny access to electricity to those who are living in darkness and poverty.”
Coal Isn’t Dead. China Proves It.
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, Jan 23, 2019
Change in US Administrations
Trump ‘hasn’t been fair’ to OPEC: Oman oil minister
By Natash Turak, CNBC, Jan 12, 2019
President Trump Tweets About Snow… Science “Journalist” Has Meltdown! Film at 11.
Guest eye-rolling by David Middleton, WUWT, Jan 22, 2019
Seeking a Common Ground
MITRE Releases Report Examining NOAA Internal Policies and the Karl Study
By Charles the Moderator, WUWT, Jan 14, 2019
Link to: Assessment of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Scientific Integrity Policies and Procedures
As Applied to the 2015 Dr. Thomas Karl, et al., Science Paper: “Possible Artifacts of Data Biases in the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus
By Dr. Arthur B. Baggeroer, et al., MITRE, July 2018
Robert Samuelson: Fight Global Warming With A ‘Carbon Dividend’?
By Robert Samuelson, IBD, Jan 20, 2019
“All in all, my thinking on global warming has shifted slightly, as I said. I haven’t gotten more optimistic. But I am less pessimistic.”
Science, Policy, and Evidence
CEI: Energy/Environmental Policy for the New Congress
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 23, 2019
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Impacts of Elevated CO2 on Soybean Seed Quality
Li, Y., Yu, Z., Jin, J., Zhang, Q., Wang, G., Liu, C., Wu, J., Wang, C. and Liu, X. 2018. Impact of elevated CO2 on seed quality of soybean at the fresh edible and mature stages. Frontiers in Plant Science 9: Article 1413, doi: 10.3389/fpls.2018.01413. Jan 24, 2019
“Such positive findings and the favorable health implications they infer suggest that it is important to evaluate all plant nutritional parameters when assessing the overall impact of rising atmospheric CO2 on the nutritional quality of plants. Unfortunately, too many people are quick to judge and base their assessment on changes solely on plant protein or micronutrient concentration, thus missing or overlooking important health benefits that elevated CO2 promotes elsewhere, benefits that can outweigh perceived health reductions.”
The Thermal Acclimation of Maize Plants
Zheng, Y.P., Li, R.Q., Guo, L.L., Hao, L.H., Zhou, H.R., Li, F., Peng, Z.P., Cheng, D.J. and Xu, M. 2018. Temperature responses of photosynthesis and respiration of maize (Zea mays) plants to experimental warming. Russian Journal of Plant Physiology 65: 524-531. Jan 23, 2019
“Consequently, in light of these and other findings reported in their study, Zheng et al. conclude that in response to warming, maize plants experienced an apparent ‘thermal acclimation of the net photosynthetic rate and leaf dark respiration,’ which ‘may mitigate or even offset the negative impacts on maize from future climate warming.’ Indeed, such findings suggest a warming climate may well produce higher crop yields, which is a far different tune than what climate alarmists have been playing for so long now. And this new tune is welcomed music to our ears!”
The Effects of Elevated CO2 and Drought on Floral Traits and Pollinator Visitation Rates of Four Forbs
Glenny, W.R., Runyon, J.B. and Burkle, L.A. 2018. Drought and increased CO2 alter floral visual and olfactory traits with context-dependent effects on pollinator visitation. New Phytologist 220: 785-798.
Climate scientists close to forecasting near-term global warming impacts
By Brooks Hays, Washington (UPI), Jan 22, 2019
Link to paper: Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate
By Yochanan Kushnir, Adam A. Scaife, et al., Nature Climate Change, Jan 21, 2019
“By building climate models from the ground up, using real-time observations of the ocean and atmosphere, scientists have found a way to account for near-time impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.”
[SEPP Comment: Generally, global climate models show no skill at tracking atmospheric temperature trends over the past 40 years. The authors claim they will be able to make near-term climate predictions for regional areas?]
Measurement Issues — Surface
Spot The Volcano, 1815 Edition
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Jan 26, 2019
2018 was Earth’s fourth hottest year, analysis finds
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jan 24, 2019
“It was the hottest year on record for about 4.3 percent of the world’s surface, including Antarctica and nations Italy, Austria, Slovakia and France.”
[SEPP Comment: As stated in last week’s TWTW, the atmosphere over the bulk of Antarctica is cooling, only warming is between 0 and 90 degrees east.]
Study Claiming Insect Decline Due To Global Warming Is Based On Faulty Temperature Data.
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 20, 2019
Surprise: Decline In GDP-Adjusted Global Catastrophe Losses Over Past 25 Years, Violent Tornadoes Trending Downward
By Die kalte Sonne. (German text translated/edited in the English by P Gosselin). No Tricks Zone, Jan 23, 2019
Dangerous, Record-Breaking Cold to Invade Midwest, Chicago
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 24, 2019
Snow go: Canadian winter festival cancelled because of snow
By Staff Writers, Montreal (AFP), Jan 20, 2019
Who is Really Killing the Darling? [River]
By Ron Pike, Quadrant, Jan 25, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Cubbie Station is a large irrigation project in Australia.]
A Note on Climate Change and Bushfires
By Roger Underwood, Quadrant, Jan 24, 2019
“We know how to reduce fuels in bushland and harden up communities in bushfire-prone areas, and we know that these strategies work and can be implemented on the smell of an oily rag compared to the water-bomber approach. We should adopt them, not simply because they will be effective in reducing bushfire disasters, but because they will work irrespective of projected climate change.”
[SEPP Comment: The retired forester gives practical solutions, contradicting the “Jerry Brown climate change” mentality of many in Australia.]
A downslope windstorm over central Oregon
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Jan 24, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Explaining how a high-amplitude mountain wave can be intensified to create strong winds.]
Warm Water, Hot Air
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Jan 22, 2019
Link to paper: CERA-20C: A Coupled Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century
By Patrick Laloyaux, et al., Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, May 21, 2018
“Somehow ‘ocean heat content as high as it was 75 years ago’ isn’t quite so alarming. “
Solar cycles to blame for jellyfish plagues (not coal fired plants)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 26, 2019
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017
By Eric Rignot, et al., PNAS, Jan 22, 2019
Comment by Howard Hayden: net loss of “252 ± 26 Gt/y in 2009–2017 … out of 28 billion Gigatonnes.” [The calculations were deleted.]
[SEPP Comment: Based on the numbers in the abstract, two-thirds of the ice loss is occurring where the atmosphere is cooling — West Antarctica and the Peninsula!
Why Antarctica’s shrinking sea ice could be down to natural causes
Research has found that natural events could be to blame for Antarctica’s sea ice reaching record lows.
By Julie Arblaster, Gerald Meehl, and Guomin Wang, SBS News, Jan 18, 2019
Link to paper: Compounding tropical and stratospheric forcing of the record low Antarctic sea-ice in 2016
By Guomin Wang, et al., Nature, Communications, Jan 2, 2019
Antarctic krill: Key food source moves south
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 22, 2019
“Note to the BBC – the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has nothing whatsoever to do with climate change. Instead it is simply a natural climatic cycle, just as the PDO or AMO are.
“New Zealand’s Environmental Reporting Series shows how the SAM has oscillated since the 1800s:”
Ancient climate change triggered warming that lasted thousands of years
By Matthew Carroll, Penn State News, Jan 21, 2019
[SEPP Comment: During the period the shape of the continents was different. The Caribbean Seaway was open and the Drake passage was closed, connecting South American with Antarctica. with no circulation around Antarctica. There were no significant ice sheets The ocean circulations and atmospheric circulations must have been significantly different than today. It is thought the warming was caused by “hyperthermals.” Without addressing these issues, one can only speculate about the influence of increased CO2.]
New Paper: PETM Was Caused by Climate Change… Ancient Climate Change Caused Climate Change… AEUHHH????
Guest Aeuhhh???? by David Middleton, WUWT, Jan 23, 2019
[See link immediately above.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
CO2 and crops: NAS vs. science
By David Burton, WUWT, Jan 21, 2019
How to Eat to Save the World
By Modi Mwatsama and Howard Frumkin, Project Syndicate, Jan 25, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Executives with Wellcome’s Our Planet, Our Health promoting EAT-Lancet Commission’s “set of science-based guidelines.”
Ramming the ‘Great Food Transformation’ Down Our Throats
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Jan 23, 2019
Why Scientists Are Distrusted
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Jan 21, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Latest Fake Claims About Greenland Ice Loss
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 22, 2019
More on Bevis, GRACE, and NASA in the PNAS
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
We Have a Winner: Climate’s Tallest Tale 2018
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Jan 18, 2019
‘Doomsday clock’ setting closest to global annihilation since Cold War
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Jan 24, 2019
“The world is the closest it’s been in more than 60 years to annihilation from nuclear war and climate change, a group of scientists warned Thursday.”
[SEPP Comment: “The experts, led by former California Gov. Jerry Brown (D)…” winner of SEPP’s 2018 April Fool’s Award.]
Ocasio-Cortez calls climate change ‘our World War II,’ warns the world will end in 12 years
By Joseph A. Wulfsohn, Fox News, Jan 22, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
The CO2 Derangement Syndrome – a historical overview
Guest essay by Norman Page, WUWT, Jan 23, 2019
Climate Change Denial
Facing a reality too big to believe.
By Sara Gorman, Ph.D., MPH, and Jack M. Gorman, MD, Psychology Today, Jan 12, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The public health specialist and the psychiatrist cannot articulate the issue correctly. Who fails to face reality?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
The Great Renewables Marketing scam known as “climate change”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 22, 2019
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Goodbye to a misguided war on coal
By Rupert Darwall and Myron Ebell, The Washington Times, Jan 21, 2019
Davos elite prefers private jets amid climate change worries
It forecast nearly 1,500 private jet flights over the week of the World Economic Forum (WEF) to airports near Davos in the Swiss Alps.
By Staff Writers, Press Trust of India, Jan 22, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Questioning European Green
Germany’s Climate Agenda on the Brink of the Abyss
By Daniel Wetzel, Die Welt, Via GWPF, Jan 24, 2019
[SEPP Comment: A skilled political move: rather than accept responsibility in making a difficult decision, appoint a commission that will make the desired decision.]
Germany’s 2019 hard coal imports seen rising after mining ends
By Vera Eckert, Reuters, Jan 18, 2019
Germany needs longer timetable to end coal-fired power: minister
By Andreas Franke, Platts, Jan 22, 2019
STEPHEN GLOVER: We’re sitting on a gold mine [shale oil and gas]. Yet ignorant politicians risk the lights going out on our country
By Stephen Glover, Daily Mail, Jan 23, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Will Climate Hysteria Unravel in Canada?
By Holman Jenkins Jr., WSJ, Via GWPF, Jan 23, 2019
Save the world and raze some forests
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 23, 2019
Loophole Lets Norway’s $1 Trillion Fund Boost Its Coal Exposure
By Mikael Holter, Bloomberg, Jan 23, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
The Political Games Continue
Jair Bolsonaro alarms climate activists with pro-business speech
New Brazilian president highlights need to grow economy in Davos appearance
By Larry Elliott, Guardian, UK, Jan 22, 2019
“’It is now our mission to make progress in harmonising environmental preservation and biodiversity with the much-needed economic development,’” [Bolsonaro] said.
Bob Ward Spits His Dummy Out, After Losing Yet Another IPSO Complaint
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 25, 2019
[SEPP Comment: “Bob Ward is policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at London School of Economics and Political Science” He complained about an article by Christopher Booker under the Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO) and lost.]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
A New “Carbon Fee” Proposal Could Hike Taxes by More than $1 Trillion
By Tim Pearce, Daily Caller, Jan 25, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]
A ‘Revenue Neutral’ Carbon Tax Is a Costly Myth
By James Taylor, Townhall, Jan 20, 2019
The Myth of the Revenue-neutral Carbon Tax
By H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland Institute, Jan 25, 2019
Guardian Wants To Add 15% VAT To Your Energy Bills
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2019
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Trump EPA official: Addressing climate change ‘one of many priorities’
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jan 25, 2019
Energy Issues – Non-US
It’s All Over: Russia-Saudi alliance abandons assault on US shale
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph, UK, Via GWPF, Jan 25, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The big losers are those insisting on government control of the oil and gas.]
An energy crisis is looming – but ministers are distracted by Brexit
By Martin Vander Weyer, The Spectator, Jan 19, 2019
Melbourne, 200,000 houses blacked out, 10 companies curtailed, as 1-in-5-year hot day hits
They were only 250 million watts short:
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 26, 2019
Warning: Money on fire in Vic and SA electricity prices at $14,000 per MWh
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 24, 2019
Power outages as Australia swelters through extreme temperatures
By Staff Writers, Sydney (AFP), Jan 25, 2019
Forgotten history: 50 degrees everywhere, right across Australia in the 1800s
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 24, 2019
EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2019 projects growing oil, natural gas, renewables production
By Terry Yen, et. al., EIA, Jan 24, 2019 [H/t Marlo Lewis]
Link to Annual Energy Outlook, 2019
By Staff Writers, EIA, Jan 24, 2019
Washington’s Control of Energy
White House eyes energy push as Russia strategy
Potential executive orders could ease the way for new pipeline projects.
By Zack Colman and Andrew Restuccia, Politico, Jan 23, 2019
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Saudi Arabia: We’ll Pump The World’s Very Last Barrel Of Oil
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Jan 23, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The Saudis were right when many western experts were insisting the world was about to run out of oil.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Britain’s Climate Policy in Tatters as Nuclear Power Projects Are Scrapped
By Staff Writers, The Times, Via GWPF, Jan 18, 2019
What does PG&E filing for bankruptcy mean for Diablo Canyon?
By Kaytlyn Leslie, The Tribune, Calf., Jan 14, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind Power Down To 0.7%
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2019
‘Green energy blues’ in a town that sought to do something about climate change
By David Abel, Boston Globe, Jan 24, 2019
[SEPP Comment: No hard numbers on actual power generation.
UK onshore wind installations plummet in 2018
By Craig Richard, Wind Power, Jan 21, 2019
“Onshore wind installations in the UK fell to 598MW in 2018, down from a record high of 2,666MW the previous year, new figures from Renewable UK show.”
Energy & Environmental Newsletter: January 21, 2019
By John Droz, Master Resource, Jan 21, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Put corn on your plate, not in your tank
By Peter Roff, Washington Examiner, Jan 22, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The irony is rich: many of those who promote corn for fuel also claim that corn yields will fall with climate change.]
Not Even the U.S. Government Can Escape the Fallout of PG&E’s Crisis
By Brian Eckhouse, Bloomberg, Jan 18, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
California Could Use PG&E’s Failure to Get Wildfire-Prone Areas Off the Grid
The wildfires aren’t going to stop. Californians still need electricity. And PG&E can’t be trusted.
By April Glaser, Slate, Jan 16, 2019
“It could also be tied to a commitment to immediately invest more in lower-risk technology, such as solar installations and wind power. This would have the joint benefit of lowering the risk of fire—no more dangling power lines through forests—and bolstering California’s ambitious plan to transfer to 33 percent renewable energy sources by 2020.”
[SEPP Comment: In a time of uncertain liability, there are not clear answers. If the issue is the risk of local distribution, converting to wind and solar generation does not reduce the risk. Concentrating the grid would reduce the risk. Imagine the uproar if the power company announced that in hot dry weather, it will cut-off all power lines to rural areas.]
California: Record spending as tax revenue collapses by $5 billion
By Chriss Street, American Thinker, Jan 16, 2019
Health, Energy, and Climate
Nitrogen oxide: Is it really that dangerous, lung doctors ask?
Several German pulmonary physicians question the current nitrogen oxide and particulate matter limits. These are inadequate and mainly based on questionable epidemiological studies, they say.
By Staff Writers, DW, Jan 24, 2019 [H/t Paul Homewood]
‘Mikes Nature Trick’ Revisited- @ScottAdamsSays edition
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 21, 2019
Greenpeace Resurrects “Peak Oil” (an exercise in intellectual misdirection)
By Michael Lynch, Master Resource, Jan 22, 2019
[SEPP Comment: “Peak Oil” and the Club of Rome are great examples of how certain groups use numerical models to mislead the public.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Preventing the Mother of All US Power Outages
By Paul Steidler, Real Clear Energy Jan 23, 2019
China, Russia Building Super-EMP Bombs for ‘Blackout Warfare’
Report reveals electromagnetic war scenarios
By Bill Gertz, Washington Free Beacon, Jan 24, 2019
Compostables Were Meant to Save Us From Plastics. They’re Overflowing Landfills.
By Jason Hopkins, Daily Caller, Jan 22, 2019
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Climate catastrophe due next year,
By Paul Matthews, Climate Scepticism, Jan 18, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
“By 2020 ‘catastrophic’ shortages of water and energy supply will become increasingly harder to overcome, plunging the planet into war. They warn that 8,200 years ago climatic conditions brought widespread crop failure, famine, disease and mass migration of populations that could soon be repeated.”
[SEPP Comment: A classic from the Guardian/Observer archives, February 2004 based on a 2003 Pentagon report. According to the International Union of Geological Sciences the Northgrippian (8,326 years ago to 4,200 years ago) was a warming period, beneficial to humanity. It ended with a cooling, harmful to humanity.]
Living within means
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Jan 23, 2019
“Continuing global economic growth ‘is not possible’ if nations are to tackle climate change, a report by an environmental think-tank has warned.
“The New Economics Foundation (Nef) said “unprecedented and probably impossible” carbon reductions would be needed to hold temperature rises below 2C (3.6F).
“Scientists say exceeding this limit could lead to dangerous global warming.
“We urgently need to change our economy to live within its environmental budget, said Nef’s policy director Andrew Simms. Heat Is Online – orig BBCNews, 25 Jan 2010” [Boldface added]
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Jan 22, 2019
“One of the clearest measures of global warming is right outside your window: earlier blooming and budding plants in the spring.
“Project BudBurst scientists are getting reports that common lilac, red maples, Virginia bluebells and other popular ornamental plants on their “10 Most Wanted” list are waking up earlier in the spring than ever — a sign that the climate is heating up.
“We’re seeing that the data show that spring is advancing, said Sandra Henderson of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), which oversees Project BudBurst.
“All the instructions for participating, including a geolocator so participants can report their whereabouts, are available at the project website.
“An application that allows citizen scientists to report their findings on their cell phones may soon be available, Henderson said. UCLA is working on a mobile phone application to do it, Henderson said.
“The application will allow users to quickly send in photos documenting what a plant in a particular location is doing on a given day.
“Project BudBurst and other citizen science campaigns is actually empowering, said Henderson. “We want people to be outside in a meaningful way.”
“Heat Is Online, 22 Apr 2010 – Discovery.com [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: UCAR does not bother with atmospheric temperatures to determine if greenhouse gases are causing a warmer spring.]
1. What Utilities Can Do to Strengthen the Grid
Bolstering power networks against extreme events can require billions of dollars but some utilities are taking smaller measures
By Erin Ailworth, WSJ, Jan 22, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Misses the most obvious preventive measure: aggressive fire-fighting with removal of forest litter and new growth vegetation, “fine fuels”, to create defensible spaces.]
SUMMARY: The author discusses the following: 1) stronger utility poles, from concrete, steel, fiberglass, which are less fire-prone; 2) insulate power lines; 3) bury power lines, which is expensive and often impossible; 4) add sensors and reclosers to alert the utility of disruption; 5) tighter weather monitoring; and 6: use of wildfire cameras.
2. Vision Zero, a ‘Road Diet’ Fad, Is Proving to Be Deadly
Emergency vehicles get stuck on streets that have been narrowed to promote walking and bicycling.
By Christopher D. LeGras, WSJ, Jan 18, 2019
SUMMARY: Beginning an accident in which first responders had difficult reaching the person, the attorney continues:
“Los Angeles, like cities nationwide, is transforming its streets. In July 2017 the city installed a “road diet” on a 0.8-mile stretch of Venice Boulevard in Mar Vista, reducing four lanes to two and adding bike lanes separated from traffic by parking buffers. The project is part of Mayor Eric Garcetti’s Vision Zero initiative, which aims to eliminate traffic fatalities in the city by 2025. Launched in 2015, Vision Zero is the most radical transformation of how people move through Los Angeles since the dawn of the freeway era 75 years ago.
“By almost any metric it’s been a disaster. Pedestrian deaths have nearly doubled, from 74 in 2015 to 135 in 2017, the last year for which data are available. After years of improvement, Los Angeles again has the world’s worst traffic, according to the transportation research firm Inrix. Miles of vehicles idling in gridlock have reduced air quality to 1980s levels.
“The international Vision Zero movement began in the 1990s in Sweden, where it apparently worked well. The Swedish government claims a 50% reduction in traffic deaths since 2000. Hoping to achieve similar gains, U.S. mayors from New York City to North Pole, Alaska, have adopted Vision Zero. Projects range from multibillion-dollar light-rail lines to retiming traffic lights for slower traffic. Road diets are key.
“In neighborhoods across New York City, residents, community boards and local businesses have done battle with city officials over “traffic calming” measures imposed by city hall. Lane reductions, bike lanes, new meridians and other innovations designed to reduce vehicle speeds make it difficult for bulky ambulances and fire trucks to respond quickly to emergencies. And while pedestrian deaths have plummeted in the Big Apple under Vision Zero, deaths of bicyclists, motorcyclists and people in vehicles have ticked up.
“Around the country, officials have implemented projects on short notice, over local objections and without consulting first responders. Howard Holt, a fire captain in Oakland, Calif., said he found out about a road diet in front of his station when he arrived for a shift one morning. “I wasn’t sure if I was supposed to drive in the new green lanes,” he said recently. “Turns out they’re bike lanes.” He calls the city bureaucracy “The Wall.”
“During the 2017 La Tuna Fire, the biggest in Los Angeles in half a century, a road diet on Foothill Boulevard the in Sunland-Tujunga neighborhood bottlenecked evacuations. After the fire a neighborhood association voted to go off the road diet. The city ignored the request and instead added another one to La Tuna Canyon Road.
“The story isn’t confined to big cities. In Waverly, Iowa (pop. 9,837), Fire Chief Dennis Happel and Bremer County Sheriff Dan Pickett say the city has ignored their concerns over a road diet plan. In Fairbanks, Alaska, Fire Battalion Chief Brian Davis says the city installed traffic controls to mitigate the impact of new bike lanes in front of his fire house. In January the average high temperature in Fairbanks is zero Fahrenheit—much too cold to ride a bike.
“It’s noble to want to make America’s streets as safe as they can be. But government officials shouldn’t impose projects on communities that don’t work, inconvenience residents, hurt businesses and impede emergency responders in the process.”