Guest DIY by David Middleton
It looks like at least some of this money was well-spent.
I stumbled across something very useful yesterday on Climate-Dot-Gov’s U.S. Climate Resilience Tool Kit page.
The widget generates CMIP5 or PMIP3 model outputs for specific countries and a temperature change map of the world. You can also spit out plots of each model. And these outputs display the actual temperature ranges rather than anomalies.
Since Greenland is such a great climatic playground, I started playing around with it.
Greenland Stays Frozen in an RCP8.5 Bad Science Fiction Nightmare
The first thing I did was to hit Greenland with RCP8.5.
While the histogram indicates a 5.1 °C rise in the average annual surface temperature. It’s thought that the Sangamonian (Eeemian) interglacial was at least 5 °C warmer than today. However, most of that 5.1 °C rise appears to be in winter and the average July temperature is projected to still be below freezing, only 2-3 °C warmer than the 1980-2004 mean.
Since we know that RCP8.5 is just bad science fiction and that global temperatures are behaving more like RCP2.6 to RCP4.5…
Let’s look at RCP4.5 and RCP2.6…
Again, note that most of the warming is in winter. Greenland’s average July temperature barely changes. The Greenland ice sheet will barely notice this.
“And Now For Something Completely Different”
Andy May’s brilliant analysis of NCA4 featured this image:
Andy noted the following:
INM-CN4 is labeled and it, alone, is tracking the observations with enough accuracy, yet it does not predict dangerous temperatures in the future or any significant human influence on climate.
This drew some standard ad hominem and/or unsupported dismissals of Dr. Christy’s work and derision of INM-CM4. So I downloaded UAH 6.0 and HadCRUT4 and plotted 5-yr running means at the same scale as Dr. Christy’s 2016 plot.
UAH 6.0 generally plots within 0.1 °C of the average of 3 satellite datasets, closest to INM-CM4. HadCRUT4 plots well-below the model-mean closest to the only model that runs hotter than INM-CM4. Note that there’s not a lot of difference between HadCRUT4 and UAH 6.0. (0.1-0.2 °C is not a lot of difference).
Here are the RCP8.5 and RCP 4.5 outputs for INM-CM4 in Greenland:
Both models indicate that Greenland won’t be significantly warmer in 2100 than it was in 1850. Almost all of the warming comes from an increase in the minimum temperatures.
1850 was very cold by Holocene standards.
Alder, J.R., Hostetler, S.W., Williams, D., 2013. An Interactive Web Application for Visualizing Climate Data. Eos Trans. AGU 94, 197–198. DOI: 10.1002/2013EO220001.
Alder, J.R. and Hostetler, S.W., 2013. CMIP5 Global Climate Change Viewer. US Geological Survey http://regclim.coas.oregonstate.edu/gccv/index.html doi:10.5066/F72J68W0
Alley, Richard, B. (2000). The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland. Quaternary Science Reviews. 19. 213-226. 10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00062-1.