Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Infinite Rise? For the past several weeks TWTW has discussed recent studies and reports claiming accelerating sea level rise. A questionable example included a report from NOAA and was cited by the state of Rhode Island in its litigation against oil companies – “The State of Narraganset Bay and Its Watershed 2017.” In the Technical Summary, Figures 1 & 2 (pp. 76 & 77) show the decades-long sea level trends in Newport and Providence, RI, of 2.78 +/- 0.16 mm per year (1.1 inches per decade) and 2.25 +/- 0.25 mm per year (0.9 inches per decade), respectively. These come from the established NOAA publication “Tides and Currents.” (Newport is at the mouth and Providence at the top of Narraganset Bay) Then, Figure 3 (p. 78) shows NOAA projections of a rise of up to 11 feet in Newport by the end of the century (extreme case)! How did a rise of 10 inches per century, with an error of about 10%, turn in to rise of 11 feet by the end of the century (280 mm per century to 3352 mm per century)? This increase in rate of rise is more than 10 times that being measured.
By way of comparison, a historic plaque in Providence shows that the 1815 hurricane caused a storm surge of 11 feet 9 inches (3.6 meters), and the 1938 hurricane caused a storm surge of 13 feet 8 inches (14.2m) (about 15 feet (4.6m) in Narraganset Bay). What logic prompted NOAA to predict/forecast a sea level rise in 2100 approximating that of historic hurricane storm surges? Further, NOAA’s graphs show sea level rise is directly related to atmospheric carbon dioxide, for which it offers no physical evidence. (Please note that on July 19, 2018 the NOAA calculator for Providence (1992 to 2100) gave a revised maximum sea level rise of 5 feet by 2100 with an intermediate estimate of 1.73 feet, still far too high.)
What is additionally disturbing is that the NOAA graphs depict ever increasing slopes; that is, the curves are exponential. If extended, the curves indicate an increase in sea level rise approaching infinity, which is absurd. This is a “sales trick” for a promoter, but hardly appropriate for objective science. Regardless of phase; solid ice, liquid water, or gas water vapor; the amount of H20 on the globe is limited, not infinite.
After some exploration of cited references, it appears that “sales trick” was presented in a paper by James Hansen, et al. published by the European Geosciences Union. Hansen was the Director of the NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS) and now with Columbia University. Co-authors of the paper include current members of NASA-GISS, Columbia University, and others.
The paper is based on a mix of global climate model results and questionable estimates (guesses) of polar ice melt. The abstract states:
“We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting.” … “These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufﬁcient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years.” [Boldface added.]
Basically, the Hansen paper is sophisticated speculation, unsubstantiated by physical evidence. It suffers from the logical Fallacy of Composition. To assess how solid the assumptions in the Hansen paper are, one needs a review of the geography of Greenland and Antarctica.
It assumes what may be happening to a small of the Greenland ice sheet is occurring everywhere on the island, and what is happening to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is occurring on the entire continent. This ignores the varying conditions pertaining across Greenland and Antarctica.
To a large part, Greenland is a bowl filled with ice, with ice free areas along the coasts. High mountains thousands of feet above sea level defined the bowl. What is happening on the fringes is not necessarily occurring in the ice mass which covers about 80% of the island and is about 3 kilometers (1.9 mi) thick. The studied ice melt at the three major glacial outlets appear to be increasing, but the data is too short-term (around 5 years) to make any conclusions of the future.
Over 98% of Antarctica is ice with a thickness averaging at least 1.6 km (1 mile). It is the highest and coldest continent in the world with average temperatures of about −57 °C (−70 °F) in the interior and about -10°C (14 °F) on the coast. The continent is divide by the high Transantarctic Mountains, with East Antarctica, two-thirds of the continent, covered with ice, except for small isolated areas along the coasts.
With about one third of the total area of the continent, West Antarctica contains the Antarctica Peninsula, which extends beyond the Antarctic Circle. The peninsula has the mildest climate of the continent, with summer temperatures slightly above freezing. This is where most of the international research stations are located. Unfortunately, far too often, reports from these research stations on what is occurring on the Peninsula are assumed to apply to the entire continent. Also, the Larsen Ice Shelf, the source of highly publicized icebergs, is off the northern Antarctic Peninsula, part of it beyond the Antarctic Circle. Since the ice is floating, its melting does not increase sea levels. Any fear of sea level rise comes from speculation about how land-based ice may shift, centuries hence.
West Antarctica also includes the two major ice shelfs extending over the oceans, the Ross Ice Shelf over the Ross Sea and the Ronne Ice Shelf over the Weddell Sea, which is a border of the Antarctic Peninsula. Reports of ice sheet melting usually refer to the Ross Ice Shelf, which is grounded on undersea mounds and its melting will increase sea levels. Recent research published by the Geological Society of London has uncovered 91 new geological hot spots under the West Antarctica Ice Sheet, on both sides of the Ross Sea, bringing the total identified to 138. This is part of the West Antarctic Rift System about which we have only limited and sporadic knowledge of volcanic activity and its extent. Bringing the WAIS into the climate change discussion would require distinguishing between melting caused by a warming climate and melting caused by geothermic activity.
The melting of the Ross Ice Shelf may have been the primary source of water for the sea level experienced rise during the last interglacial period, which would take thousands of years. Any conclusions about increasing ice melting in Antarctica in the near future come under the category of hasty generalizations.
With close to 40 years of temperature data covering all but the immediate south pole, there is no appreciable warming of the atmosphere above Antarctica. It is incorrect to attribute any limited ice melting to atmospheric carbon dioxide. The above analysis outlines why there is no logical basis to accept Hansen’s claim that recent melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica justifies an exponential increase in sea level rise predictions.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), NOAA, NASA, and other organizations have offered no physical evidence that sea level rise is increasing, is related to CO2, and is a threat to human or national security. The governmental organizations have shifted from presenting hard evidence to presenting speculation as evidence. This shift prompts questions as to the scientific integrity and competence of these organizations – or the lack thereof.
Except for calculating an increase rather than a reduction, the logic and procedures used by these organizations are similar to that used by Mark Twain in calculating the future length of the Mississippi River. See Quote of the Week, links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice, and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_New_England_hurricane#/media/File:Hurricane_water_levels_at_Old_Market_House_Providence.jpg
Quote of the Week: “In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over a mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oölitic Silurian Period, just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-pole. And by the same token any person can see that seven hundred and forty-two years from now the Lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long, and Cairo [Illinois] and New Orleans will have joined their streets together and be plodding comfortably along under a single mayor and a mutual board of aldermen. There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” – Mark Twain, “Life On the Mississippi” [H/t Ed Murdock]
Number of the Week: 7 Thousand Years, maybe?
Climate Influence on Humans: H.H. Lamb pioneered modern climate science with the belief that climate change severely impacted human cultures and civilization. His research included the Little Ice Age and its devastating impact, the drying of the Sahara, and other shifts in climate that may have occurred on the Indus plateau and in China. His work was disregarded by his followers at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), which he founded, in favor of dangerous global warming caused by increasing CO2.
The International Commission on Stratigraphy, which is responsible for standardizing the Geologic Time Scale, approved dividing the Holocene Epoch, which represents the time since the end of the last Ice Age, 11,700 years ago, into three Ages defined by beginnings of climatic events: the Greenlandian Age, from about 11,700 years ago to 8,300 years ago, the Northgrippian Age from about 8,300 years ago to 4,200 years ago, and the Meghalayan Age, which began at the time when agricultural societies around the world experienced an abrupt and critical mega-drought and cooling 4,200 years ago. The recommendation is under consideration. It is encouraging to see this form of recognition of the pioneering work of Lamb. See links under Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations.
The Climate Lobby: Robert Bruille, a sociologist at Drexel University (Philadelphia), estimated how much various industries have spent in lobbying Congress on issues related to climate change between 2000 and 2016 using his definitions. Electrical Utilities spent about $554 million (26%), Fossil Fuels, spent $370 million (18%) Transportation, $262 million (12%). Other industrial sectors spent less than 5% of the total, except “Other” with $628 million (30%). Renewable Energy spent only $78 million (4%) and Environmental Organizations spent only $48 million (2 %).
Big spending began in 2007-2008 session ($443 million up from $92 million) when the Democrats controlled the House and Senate and bills such as the Lieberman-McCain Climate Stewardship Act were introduced, which failed in the Senate. It continued under the Obama Administration, and control of both branches of Congress by Democrats in 2009-2010 and bills such as The American Clean Energy and Security Act, and the Kerry-Lieberman American Power Act were introduced and failed. The former was also called the cap-and-tax bill. The calculated spending was $715 million during that two-year session. In the following session, 2011-2012, spending fell to $315 million with the Republicans in control of the House and Democrats in control of the Senate. The calculated spending for climate lobbying has fallen to $154 million during the 2015-2016 session.
A major omission in the report is The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. This cost over $800 billion and contained about $110 billion in “clean energy investments,” tax credits to the renewable power industry and biofuels, which continue today. The subsequent recovery was the worst the US economy experienced since the Great Depression. In her critique of the report, Australian Jo Nova seems to have a better grasp of US lobbying than the author. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
Another Legal Tactic: Federal judges have dismissed the litigation against oil companies by the cities of New York, Oakland, and San Francisco for creating a public nuisance. The claimed public nuisance that damages or inconveniences the rights of the community has been global warming caused by CO2 from burning oil will raise sea levels dramatically. As stated above, this is all speculation by the IPCC and US organizations, not hard evidence.
The trial lawyers involved have taken another approach. The Mayor and City Council of Baltimore have sued the oil companies in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City. According to its web site:
“The Circuit Court for Baltimore City is a State trial court of general jurisdiction. … Cases in the Civil Division cover a broad spectrum, such as motor torts, medical malpractice cases, lead paint cases, asbestos litigation, and cases involving business and commercial matters, as well as appeals from District Court, Orphans’ Court and administrative agencies. …”
The addresses of defendants include Great Britain, Maryland, California, Texas, The Netherlands, New Orleans, Ohio, Delaware, and Pennsylvania, with the largest number in Maryland, small, local oil companies. Given that the federal courts dismissed the cases because the matter is properly handled by the legislative and executive branches of government, it will be interesting to see whether the state court considers itself a “court of competent jurisdiction.” More to follow in a subsequent TWTW. See links under Litigation Issues.
Toxins at EPA? Upon entering a grocery, hardware, outdoor goods, beauty salon, or many other retail stores in California one may be greeted by a sign by officials justified by California Proposition 65: “This product (or store) contains chemicals known to the State of California to cause cancer and birth defects or other reproductive harm.” These warnings extend to Electrical Cords, Motor Vehicles and related Fuel and Oils, Fresh Fruits, Nuts, and Vegetables, Alcoholic Beverages, Including, Without Limitation, Beer, Malt, Beverages, Wine, and Distilled Spirits, Coffee and Some Roasted Nuts, Baked Goods and Snack Foods. Though often based on speculation, the “knowledge” exhibited by California regulators on cancer causing substances has no bounds.
Thus, it is disturbing to read “Pruitt staffers worried about toxic chemical in his desk.” The desk had a California warning label about formaldehyde. Can the public expect EPA staffers to write practical regulations regarding health issues when they are alarmed by California warning labels? See links under Below the Bottom Line.
Additions and Corrections: The June 30 TWTW contained an estimate of pipeline to pipeline transportation costs for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) from the US Gulf Coast to China / Japan that needs to be revised. The $3.00 per million BTUs was based on current reports by an energy consulting firm. These may have been unusually low temporary, spot price estimates.
Energy expert Donn Dears graciously sent TWTW a January report by the established Charles River Associates on estimated cost of liquification, shipping, and regassification from the US Henry Hub, Louisiana, to The Netherlands at $4.7/mm Btu’s (not including the cost of gas at the Henry Hub). According to the report, the costs of liquification are based on long-term contracts, which cover 80% of the export terminal’s capacity. US exports of LNG are in such a state of flux, that TWTW should have not made the estimate it did. We thank Donn Dears for his information. See links under Energy Issues – Non-US.
Number of the Week: 7 Thousand Years, maybe. Given the outrageous speculation by government entities on sea level rise, it is useful to recall the estimates by Fred Singer for the melting of the Ross Ice Sheet, from below – about 7,000 years – if a new glaciation does not occur. (WSJ, May 15, TWTW May 19)
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The six past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, John Holdren and Christiana Figueres aka Cruella de Ville are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. The award will be presented at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness in August.
Nominations will close on July 30, and voting will close on August 19.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Lightning strikes occur in time with the spinning Sun in 150 year old Japanese farm records
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 19, 2018
Link to paper: Solar rotational cycle in lightning activity in Japan during the 18–19th centuries
By Hiroko Miyahara, et al. Annales Geophsicae, EGU, Apr 18, 2018
Searching for the 27-day solar rotational cycle in lightning events recorded in old diaries in Kyoto from the 17th to 18th century
By Hiroko Miyahara, et al. Annales Geophsicae, EGU, Nov 3, 2017
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
IPCC’s Kangaroo Science…To Ignore Over 600 Papers Confirming Major Solar Impact On Climate
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 17, 2018
In Australia free speech costs $68,000
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 20, 2018
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Bucket list: Historic global ocean temperature data – the missing pedigree is a comedy of errors
By Hartmut Hoecht, WUWT, July 11, 2018
“This paper addresses the glaring disregard within the scientific community in addressing thermal data errors of global ocean probing. Recent and older records are compiled with temperatures noted in small fractions of degrees, while their collection processes often provide errors much greater than full degrees.”
New Evidence That the World Really Is Getting Better
By Raya Bidshahri, Singularity Hub, July 1, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
Global Warming Today is Now Haunted by an Almost Unbelievable Deceptive Beginning.
By Tim Ball, WUWT, July 15, 2018
Defending the Orthodoxy
By James Hansen, Makiko Sato, et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, EGU, March 22, 2016 [H/t Willie Soon]
The State of Narragansett Bay and Its Watershed, Technical Report
By Staff Writers, Narragansett Bay Estuary Program, 2017
Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change
By Peter U. Clark, et al (Thomas Stocker, Susan Solomon, Ben Santer), Nature climate Change, Feb 8, 2016
Sea Level Rise
By Sweet, W.V., R. Horton, R.E. Kopp, A.N. LeGrande, and A. Romanou, 2017: in
Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I, 2017
By D.J. Wuebbles, D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. US Global Change Research Program, 2017
“This report is an authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus on the United States. It represents the first of two volumes of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990.”
The Technology That Can Provide Society with Actionable Information For Dealing with Global Warming
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, July 15, 2018
[SEPP Comment; Why are atmospheric temperatures ignored, taken where the greenhouse effect occurs?]
The climate lobby: a sectoral analysis of lobbying spending on climate change in the USA, 2000 to 2016
Climate Lobbying is a 2-billion-dollar industry — Money talks, but this report has no idea what it is saying
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 20, 2018
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Has Human Influence on the Seasonal Cycle Been Found?
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, July 20, 2018
Link to paper: Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature
By Benjamin D. Santer, et al. Science, July 20, 2018
“All things considered this is a very interesting paper, but given the inconsistencies and limitations I wouldn’t say it as yet was “powerful” new evidence as the authors of the paper contend.”
Sea ice is critical habitat for polar bears from late fall through late spring only
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, July 14, 2018
Why Climate Alarmists Are Not Really Interested in Humans or the Environment
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, July 20, 2018
Just like that: 48% of Australians happy to pull out of Paris
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 18, 2018
Turn off the tap: World Bank uses US funds to push Paris and renewables
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 17, 2018
Trump Pulled Out of the Paris Climate Accords, But the US Is Spending Billions to Implement It.
By Tim Pearce, Daily Caller, July 6, 2018
Change in US Administrations
Judge Kavanaugh and the Environmental Left
By Reihan Salam, National Review, July 12, 2018
“Should environmentalists fear the prospect of Judge Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court justice? Most left-of-center environmentalists are convinced that the answer is yes, on the grounds that Judge Kavanaugh has consistently sought to rein in federal regulatory agencies that by his lights appear to be going beyond their legislative mandates. But this shouldn’t imply hostility to the goals of environmentalists — it is just that as a matter of constitutional principle, he believes, correctly, that it is Congress that should be making substantive policy decisions about matters of great significance, such as climate change, not the agencies themselves.”
FEMA avoids ‘climate change’ when introducing future storm resiliency plans
By Miranda Green, The Hill, July 17, 2018
Social Benefits of Carbon
‘Day Zero’ Wars, and Greening: Africa’s Climate Truth
Guest essay by Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, July 19, 2018
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Trudeau’s carbon tax looks pretty much dead now that most provinces are out
Opinion: Going into the summer meeting of the premiers, the number of provinces supporting the proposed federal carbon tax looks like it’s down to five — maybe four
By Jim Karahalois, Financial Post, July 19, 2018
Spanish Socialists face a coal vs. climate dilemma
Brussels is ramping up the pressure to drop coal, but doing so could cost the fragile government crucial votes.
By Paola Tamma, Politico, July 13, 2018
Seeking a Common Ground
Let There Be More Than Light
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, July 17, 2018
“Over the past 16 years, nearly every person who gained access to electricity did so through a grid connection, mostly powered by fossil fuels. And yet donors say that many of the 1.1 billion people who are still without electricity should instead try solar panels.”
Phew … breathing probably won’t kill you after all, despite the scary speculations
Opinion: Risk factors such as age, genetic background and lifestyle probably have a more direct correlation to cancer than air
By Warren Kindzierski is an associate professor at the University of Alberta’s School of Public Health, Financial Post, July 18, 2018
“Scientists now envision that more common air pollutants — nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine particles — cause cancer based on studies that are mostly wild searches of correlations.”
[SEPP Comment: CO is toxic, but will not cause cancer?]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Changing Relative Risk of Heat-Related Mortality in Spain
Díaz, J., Carmona, R., Mirón, I.J., Luna, M.Y and Linares, C. 2018. Time trend in the impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Spain for a period of over thirty years (1983-2013). Environment International 116: 10-17. July 20, 2018
[SEPP Comment: This 30-year study, and others, call into question model-based studies on greater mortality with increasing CO2.]
The Impacts of Elevated CO2 on Basil and Peppermint
Al Jaouni, S., Saleh, A.M., Wadaan, M.A.M., Hozzein, W.N., Selim, S. and AbdElgawad, H. 2018. Elevated CO2 induces a global metabolic change in basil (Ocimum basilicum L.) and peppermint (Mentha piperita L.) and improves their biological activity. Journal of Plant Physiology 224-225: 121-131. July 19, 2018
“The results of this study are quite encouraging, demonstrating the ability of rising atmospheric CO2 to not only increase the growth and biomass of these two herbs, but to also improve their medicinal value. Unfortunately, about the only place you will hear or learn about these positive findings is here on our CO2 Science website.”
[SEPP Comment: About the only discussion of benefits of CO2 fertilization found in reports by the USGCRP are increases in growth rates of invasive plants.]
Elevated CO2, Nitrogen Fertilization and Irrigation Regime Impacts on Tomato
Wei, Z., Du, T., Li, X., Fang, L. and Liu, F. 2018. Interactive effects of elevated CO2 and N fertilization on yield and quality of tomato grown under reduced irrigation regimes. Frontiers in Plant Science 9: 328, doi: 10.3389/fpls.2018.00328. July 18, 2018
Japanese Scientists: IPCC Models Sloppy And Lopsided, Major Factors “Not Adequately Represented”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 14, 2018
Climate modelers can’t predict future, so now concentrate on the past
By Alan Tomalty, WUWT, July 20, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Apparently NCAR/UCAR doesn’t comprehend that the greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere, not on the surface.]
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Global Temperature Rise Some 75% Lower Than Models Projected!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 18, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Uses UAH atmospheric data, but not as rigorously as UAH.]
The Unnecessary Tragedy in Missouri: Lessons for Our Society
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, July 21, 2018
“Our ability to diagnose and predict the weather has improved immensely during the past decades, but we are not making full use of this information to save lives and property. Some of the problem is education. Some of it is poor communications. But in a world of internet almost everywhere and smartphones in every hand, we should be able to do better.
“Diagnosing and forecasting the weather is only half the battle…the easier part. Communication and effective use is the hard part.”
Late Snowpack Signals a Lost Summer for Greenland’s Shorebirds
Sanderlings, red knots and ruddy turnstones failed to breed this year along the Arctic island’s east coast due to record snow cover
By Daniel Ackerman, Scientific American, July 13, 2018
[Ornithologist] “Senner fears this nonbreeding year in eastern Greenland could herald an alarming trend. Climate models predict the Arctic atmosphere will hold more moisture as global temperatures rise, he notes. A wetter atmosphere means more snow in winter and spring, potentially causing late snowmelt to interfere with shorebird reproduction. He says the bird populations should be resilient to a single poor breeding year like 2018 but worries what might happen if this year’s catastrophe becomes standard. ‘Even though things aren’t normally as extreme as the current situation in Greenland,’ he says, ‘this is the kind of thing that seems to be happening more and more frequently across the Arctic’—which is probably bad news for birds.”
[SEPP Comment: One year is a trend! What did the birds do at the beginning of the Holocene?]
Adapting to When the Heat Is On
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, July 16, 2018
Collapse of civilizations worldwide defines youngest unit of the Geologic Time Scale
By Staff Writers, Press Release, Durham University, July 6, 2018
Link to proposed new chart
Sea Level Rise Rate Along Coast So Far Only About One Seventh Of IPCC Alarmist Projections!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 19, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Even the IPCC projections are mild compared with NOAA projections.]
Claim: Sea Level Rise will Kill the Internet in Fifteen Years
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 19, 2018
Link to study: Study suggests buried internet infrastructure at risk as sea levels rise
By Terry Devitt, Press Release by University of Wisconsin-Madison, July 16, 2018
“The most susceptible U.S. cities, according to the report, are New York, Miami and Seattle, but the effects would ripple across the internet, potentially disrupting global communications.”
No. Doggerland is not a relevant climate change lesson from a “real Atlantis.”
Guest ridicule by David Middleton, WUWT, July 18, 2018
Global Sea Surface Temperatures Have Seen “Pretty Dramatic Turnaround,” Says 40-Year Meteorologist!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 15, 2018
[SEPP Comment: From 2015 to 2018, could we be seeing a beginning of an expected shift in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) thought to have periods of 60 to 80 years? It shifted from a cold state in the 1990s.] ]
Greenland Update: New Evidence for Post Ice-Age Warmth
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, July 18, 2018
Link to paper: Pronounced summer warming in northwest Greenland during the Holocene and Last Interglacial
By Jamie M. McFarlin, et al, PNAS, June 4, 2018
Arctic Ice Hockey Stick
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, July 18, 2018
[SEPP Comment: As Clutz illustrates, short-term trends can be vastly different than long-term trends.]
Scientists say “only a few millimetres sea level rise” if Antarctic ice shelf collapses
Collapse of Larsen C would add up to 2.5 mm to sea level by 2100
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 19, 2018
Link to paper: Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to potential collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves
By Clemens Schannwell, et al. The Cryosphere, July 19, 2018
BBC Mislead Public With Fake Heat Record Scares
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate Lobbying is a 2-billion-dollar industry — Money talks, but this report has no idea what it is saying
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 20, 2018
[SEPP Comment: See link of “the report” in Defending the Orthodoxy.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Renewable UK’s Crooked Opinion Poll
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 18, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Another example that for many organizations the purpose of doing a poll is to garner support for the issue by ignoring unfavorable information?]
Questioning European Green
The National Infrastructure Commission’s plan for a renewable UK
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, July 19, 2018
“In my opinion, the Government ought to have the work of [energy research firm] AURORA audited by a competent organisation, assuming that such an organisation exists.”
[SEPP Comment: Andrews finds many deficiencies in the power sector modeling by Aurora including it “foresees a need for only peak-load matching energy storage and no need for any seasonal, “windless week” or “wet month” storage. Unfortunately, this approach seems to have become accepted procedure.]
Trump, NATO Summit Exposed Germany’s Natural Gas Problem
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, July 15, 2018
Elon Musk asked Sierra Club to publicize his donations to stem criticism: report
By Emily Birnbaum, The Hill July 19, 2018
“Tesla CEO Elon Musk asked the Sierra Club, an environmental advocacy group, to publicize his $6 million in anonymous donations after he received flak last week for contributing to the Republican Party, according to Bloomberg. “
The Political Games Continue
House votes to disavow carbon tax
By Timothy Cama and Julie Brufke, The Hill, July 19, 2018
“The House passed a nonbinding measure Thursday to denounce a carbon tax, calling it ‘detrimental’ to the United States.”
What Do These Climate Change Lawsuits Have In Common? Trial Lawyers
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, July 20, 2018
Update On The Stupidest Litigations In The Country
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 20, 2018
In Another Blow to Climate Litigation Campaign, federal Judge Tosses NYC Climate Case
By Spencer Walrath, Energy in Depth, July 19, 2018
“I am concerned about so much emphasis on legal strategies. The point of departure is a confused, conflicted, inattentive public. Are legal strategies the most effective strategies? I believe they are important after the public agrees how to feel about an issue. Then you can sew it up legally. Legal strategies themselves are a double-edged sword. The more adversarial the discourse, the more minds are going to be closed.” – US District Judge John Keenan
Baltimore joins cities filing climate change lawsuits against fossil fuel companies
By Miranda Green, The Hill, July 20, 2018
Link to litigation: Mayor and City Council of Baltimore v. BP P.L.C. et al
Circuit Court for Baltimore City, July 20, 2018
Awww: Chevron Shakedown lawyer in search for new career
By Ed Morrissey, Hot Air, July 14, 2018
“Heck, it didn’t even get the headlines that Steve Donziger used to get earlier in his career, after the attorney scored a $8.6 billion judgment against Chevron in Ecuador. On Tuesday, though, the state of New York yanked Donziger’s law license as a direct result of the fraudulent operation that produced the judgment:”
Environmental campaigners lose High Court battle over carbon target
Charity Plan B Earth brought legal action against the Government’s stance on the 2050 carbon target, but a judge ruled the case was ‘unarguable’.
By Staff Writers, Belfast Telegraph, UK, July 20, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Stop trying to make the carbon tax a thing
By Paul Blair, Washington Examiner, July 18, 2018
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
How ‘Green’ Energy Subsidies Transfer Wealth to the Rich
By Nicolas Loris and Bryan Cosby, Heritage Foundation, July 18, 2018
Goldman Sachs Puts a Grim Number on Solar Slump for This Year
By Chris Martin, Bloomberg, July 19, 2018
Ontario government cancels 758 renewable energy contracts, says it will save millions
By Staff Writers, CTV News, July 13, 2018 [H/t Jo Nova]
“John Gorman, president of the Canadian Solar Industries Association, called the government decision to cancel the projects “rash.” Gorman said the move will hurt small investors who have put solar panels on their rooftops or properties.”
Energy and Man part 3
By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, July 16, 2018
“If you look back at the history of Energy and Mankind, in 1950, nuclear power was the energy source of the future. The only power source that could not just rival FF (fossil fuels) but was superior to it. The future has not yet arrived and we need to hope that it has not been cancelled altogether.”
Future Energy Scenarios – 2018 [UK]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 14, 2018
Link to report: Future Energy Scenarios
By Staff Writers, The National Grid (System Operator, July 2018
“The whole document is little more than an exercise in make believe, with no acknowledgment of the costs entailed, or the risks involved. (And we have not even got onto road transport yet!)
“In other words, it is just the sort of report the government asked for.”
Dumb And Gummer: Selwyn’s climate-change claptrap
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 17, 2018
“’ The day had begun badly for the CCC’s chairman, John Selwyn Gummer, or as he likes to be called, Lord Deben. He was on the Today programme that morning when he proceeded to make a total of three, shall we say, ‘terminological inexactitudes’. All totally unchallenged and in the space of just a few minutes.’
Europe’s Dependence on Russia for Energy
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 20, 2018
Energy Issues — Australia
Australian Govt Weighs New Coal Power Pants for Energy Wars Down Under
By Staff Writers, the Australian, Via GWPF, July 14, 2018
Canadian former PM says let the others do a carbon tax and conservatives will win every province and the nation
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 21, 2018
Energy: Addicted to Waffle and Disaster
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, July 18, 2018
Energy Issues — US
A Modest Proposal For Wholesale Electricity Pricing
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 17, 2018
Commuting to work: car, train or bus?
By Andy May, WUWT, July 18, 2018
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Why The Future Of Energy Could Be U.S. Natural Gas
By Bruce Blythe, CME Group (A Derivative Marketplace), July 13, 2018
[SEPP Comment: US natural gas will contribute to world energy, but doubtful it will be the future.]
Texas set to pass Iraq, Iran as world’s third-largest oil producer
By John Bowden, The Hill, July 18, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Sometime next year, a long time away.]
Return of King Coal?
Coal is bucking trade war fears as China’s demand surges
China’s demand for the fossil fuel for electricity generation has surpassed expectations.
By Huileng Tan, CNBC, July 13, 2018
Industry’s failure to ditch coal a cause for concern
After years of decline, global coal consumption rose by 1 per cent last year
By Brian Hutton, The Irish Times, July 19, 2018
“Coal is not yet dead. Energy giant BP’s chief executive Bob Dudley has declared his astonishment following disclosures that power companies use the same amount of coal as they did two decades ago.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Weather Warning: Weeks of Wind Drought to come as Britain swelters in July Heatwave
As Britain continues to swelter in the heat, the blades of country’s wind turbines are turning incredibly slowly in the face of a nationwide “wind drought” which has seen a dramatic drop in the amount of energy produced.
By Ciaran McGrath, Express, UK, July 18, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Battery Powered Vehicle Update
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, July 17, 2018
Carbon Capture Coalition: Naked Cronyism
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, July 16, 2018
Enviros vs. Zero-Carbon Energy (hydropower, in this case)
By Donn Dears, Master Resource, July 19, 2018
“Long a favorite of sustainable energy groups opposed to more traditional fuels … in the last 10 years environmentalists have turned on hydropower. . . . Suddenly hydro is being mentioned in the same breath with coal, oil and nuclear–precisely the fuels hydro, touted early on as an environmentally benign energy source, was to replace.” (1992)
Other Scientific News
The Secret Lives of Seabirds
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, July 20, 2018
“Two fine new books on the journeys of birds and the first ornithologist.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
By Miranda Green, The Hill, July 20, 2018
“According to the emails released through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to American Oversight, staffers worried about a safety warning placed on the desk from California — which classifies formaldehyde as a carcinogen.”
[SEPP Comment: According to California cancer and chemical warnings, California must be the most toxic place in the world.]
Yes, but what does it sound like?
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, July 20, 2018
“How our musos (musicians) are saving the planet.
“’We recorded our first EP in an old converted Bedford fire engine truck run on vege oil. We drove down to the southern tip of Tassie and found a beautiful little bay surrounded by forest. During recording, the computers, mikes and amps were powered by solar panels and a wind generator on the roof of the truck. Those recordings went on to score us a record deal.’” Sydney Morning Herald 30 Mar 2007 – screen copy held by this website
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, July 18, 2018
“Scientists are working on an improved treatment for a debilitating flesh-eating disease which appears to be on the rise due to global warming.
“Should global warming continue to ravage our planet at current rates, the numbers of people suffering Leishmaniasis, a flesh-eating and sometimes fatal disease will increase dramatically, experts warn.” Science Daily, 16 Aug 2007 [Boldface added]
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, July 17, 2018
“Climate change is the latest threat to the world’s growing HIV epidemic, say Australian experts who warn of the ‘grim’ outlook in the fight against the infectious disease.
“A leading professor of health and human rights, Daniel Tarantola, has cautioned that global warming will indirectly make citizens of developing countries even more vulnerable to death and severe ill health from HIV/AIDS.
“It was clear soon after the emergence of the HIV epidemic that discrimination, gender inequality and lack of access to essential services have made some populations more vulnerable than others, said Prof Tarantola, of the University of NSW.
“Climate change will trigger a chain of events which is likely to increase the stress on society and result in higher vulnerability to diseases including HIV, said Prof Tarantola, who is due to address an HIV forum in Sydney.” The Age, 29 Apr 2008
ClimateCam is watching you!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, July 17, 2018
“A huge electronic billboard in the city square telling residents exactly how much greenhouse gas they have produced in the past hour. Sounds a little futuristic? Not if you live in Newcastle.
“ClimateCam, the world’s first greenhouse gas speedometer, displays electricity consumption information collected from the 15 substations that supply homes and businesses in the Newcastle local government area. The council now believes Newcastle has been established as an international testing ground for climate solutions.
“‘We realise that the climate change issue is just so big and we are so, in Australia, far behind the rest of the world that we need to move very, very quickly if we’re going to catch up and have access to the huge economic opportunity that we foresee is coming with the implementation of climate solutions,’ city energy and resource manager of Newcastle City Council, Peter Dormand says.” Sydney Morning Herald, 24 Oct 2007
1. Kavanaugh May Restore Separation of Powers
He’s questioned judicial deference to regulatory agencies. So have four of his soon-to-be colleagues.
By Peter J. Wallison, WSJ, July 16, 2018
SUMMARY: That author asserts:
“Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court involves something more important than social issues. His confirmation is likely to strengthen the court’s support for the Constitution’s separation of powers.
“To protect the liberties of the American people, the framers designed a constitution that separated the three branches of government. Congress was to make the laws, and the president to enforce them—preventing a concentration of power that could turn tyrannical. The judiciary’s unique responsibility was to keep the elected branches within their assigned roles. But since the 1930s the courts have largely failed that test. In some cases, with the courts’ acquiescence, Congress has delegated legislative authority to executive-branch agencies. In others, agencies asserted powers Congress had not conferred.
“In Chevron v. NRDC (1984), the Supreme Court directed federal judges to defer to agencies’ interpretations of their own statutory authority if they were “reasonable.” That, in effect, allowed administrative agencies to displace Congress as America’s primary lawgiver.
During his 12 years on the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for District of Columbia, Judge Kavanaugh has been an advocate for restoring the power of Congress. In U.S. Telecom v. Federal Communications Commission, he dissented from a 2017 ruling that upheld the “net neutrality” rule (which the FCC later repealed). He argued that for decisions as important as this, agencies could not simply find new authority in an existing law. “If an agency wants to exercise expansive regulatory authority,” he wrote, “an ambiguous grant of statutory authority is not enough. Congress must clearly authorize an agency to take a major regulatory action.”
“On the high court, he will join four other members—Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch —who have written or joined judicial opinions arguing that the court has not sufficiently controlled administrative agencies.”
The author gives examples supporting the prior assertion, then concludes:
“The rules the administrative state imposes are costly, complicated and often onerous, but that isn’t the worst of it. In a democracy, laws are supposed to be made by an elected legislature, not unelected officials. Brexit, which was a revolt against rules made by an unelected European Union bureaucracy, shows what happens when people question the legitimacy of the rulemaker they must obey. By restoring the separation of powers, the court will prevent a similar loss of legitimacy in the American government.”