“…many staff people at DPS, DEC, and NYISO who know this is going to end badly.”
Guest essay by John Droz Jr.
Here is a fascinating and revealing news article behind a paywall that I’m alerting you to. It is about just a few of the complications that will result from New York State’s (NYS) Clean Energy Standard (CES).
It discusses the NYISO (New York State Independent System Operator) 2018 Power Trends Report which (paraphrasing Winston Churchill):
…defends itself against the risk of being read by its very length and obfuscating technical jargon.
Note that the article observations are coming from a top NYISO person. In other words, this is someone on the electrical energy front lines who is struggling to deal with political energy policies — which (in NY) are divorced from science or economics and are completely oblivious of the technical consequences.
Seeing these unusually frank insider observations should be an eye-opener.
As an overview, there are several startling acknowledgments, essentially saying:
- Wind energy is an unrelentingly unpredictable and uncontrollable energy source,
- Increasing wind energy on the grid is causing serious reliability issues,
- Wind energy has very little Capacity Value, and that has not been adequately addressed,
- Due to the inherent nature of wind energy it must be permanently paired with gas,
- Adding more wind energy to the grid will require substantially more gas to be added to the grid,
- The costs to deal with wind energy on the grid are rapidly increasing,
- None of the costs incurred by wind energy are directly attributed to wind energy,
- There are similarly major issues with solar, also not quite as severe,
- None of the politicians or NGOs promoting wind or solar are acknowledging any of these issues,
- “Stakeholders” are currently discussing a carbon tax, to make this situation even worse.
What else do you need to know to confirm that we are headed for a catastrophe? Well, there’s more…
Note that there is a very strong parallel here with the US mortgage meltdown of several years ago — which led to a world-wide major economic downturn. After the fact, when insiders were interviewed about what happened, they acknowledged that everyone-in-the-know knew that the lending, etc. policies put in place (by lobbyists) were guaranteed to fail.
Unless major changes are made quickly, several years from now there will be experts commenting on how the US energy grid failure (which will lead to a collapse of our economy, and our national security, and our society), was entirely predictable based on the self-serving unscientific energy policies put in place by lobbyists.
If you think this is an exaggeration, simply shut off the electricity in a major city, and see quickly it is before chaos and lawlessness ensues.
Now do the same for an entire region. Etc.
Once you’ve grasped the magnitude of that, you’ll understand why the Russians have put so much effort into promoting US energy policies that are completely nonsensical — to anyone but them. (See Subverting US Energy Policies for more details.)
The ONLY solution is to change our energy policies to be Science-based — starting with dumping the absurd “All of the Above” slogan, and replacing it with “All of the Sensible” as a national energy mantra.
The good news here is that this calamity is 100% preventable….
See this insightful article on the exact same subject.
After reading the Politico piece yesterday, an NYS utility expert shared with me several observations, including the following:
“A close colleague of mine worked at NYSERDA and is familiar with NYS agencies. We both acknowledge that there are many staff people at DPS, DEC, and NYISO who know this is going to end badly.
However, the micro-management of the agencies and the overt pressure on the NYISO to not be independent of the Administration, is keeping dissent under wraps. The only people that the NY political administration listens to, are those that say what they want to hear.
“Reading the Politico article and the platitudes about incentivizing rapid response resources makes me want to either laugh or cry. Just as there was not enough private interest in offshore wind, NYPA had to step in; I guarantee that no private developer will want to develop a new gas turbine plant. There is no business case for such a development in NYS. The problem is that the only way this issue will be recognized as important is when it gets to a crisis at best, and at worst after some blackouts occur.”
“The ONLY solution is to change our energy policies to be Science-based”
When I see Science capitalized in the middle of a sentence I recognize that you don’t mean “science” in the sense of measurable quantities and repeatable procedures, but something more like a religion.
I wonder if the New York State Comptroller has the authority to investigate that? In Canada there are federal and provincial auditors general who do bring the public’s attention to that kind of thing. It’s like exposing sloppy accounting, or outright fraud, is their greatest joy and the only thing that gives their lives real meaning. The tool that they wield is called value for money accounting.
A major grid failure in New York would result in many deaths. Increased (and actively encouraged) dependence on electrically powered vehicles for logistics will magnify the inability to deliver food, and other essentials, to urban areas. One Second After, by William Forstchen tells the tale, if you want to read about it.
Sorta off topic, Eric Schneiderman, New York’s attorney general (who is suing EXXON for allegedly knowing about climate change), has been accused of beating four different women.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/four-women-accuse-new-yorks-attorney-general-of-physical-abuse
That there is some class A, wacko conspiracy thinking loony toon, ALARMISM
“What else do you need to know to confirm that we are headed for a catastrophe? Well, there’s more…
Note that there is a very strong parallel here with the US mortgage meltdown of several years ago — which led to a world-wide major economic downturn. After the fact, when insiders were interviewed about what happened, they acknowledged that everyone-in-the-know knew that the lending, etc. policies put in place (by lobbyists) were guaranteed to fail.
Unless major changes are made quickly, several years from now there will be experts commenting on how the US energy grid failure (which will lead to a collapse of our economy, and our national security, and our society), was entirely predictable based on the self-serving unscientific energy policies put in place by lobbyists.
If you think this is an exaggeration, simply shut off the electricity in a major city, and see quickly it is before chaos and lawlessness ensues.
Now do the same for an entire region. Etc.
Once you’ve grasped the magnitude of that, you’ll understand why the Russians have put so much effort into promoting US energy policies that are completely nonsensical — to anyone but them. (See Subverting US Energy Policies for more details.)”
And its a russian plot to Boot!
Did anyone else notice that nowhere in this long rant, is there an actual argument or real world data.
Mosh, don’t you know everything is a Russian plot these days.
That aside, do you have any comment of substance to make about the article in question? thought not.
This is how wind power is working out in Victoria, Australia, Today.
Sorry, here is the image
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Why is there no link to the Politico piece?
OT:
In other news N.Y. Attorney General Schneiderman resigns.
Yes!! A Leftist catastrophe of power in NY is unfolding today.
NY Attorney General Scheiderman quoted. “In the privacy of intimate relationships, I have engaged in role-playing and other consensual sexual activity. I have not assaulted anyone. I have never engaged in nonconsensual sex, which is a line I would not cross.”
So wonderful how the Left eats it own.
7 May: PowerLineBlog: John Hinderaker: It Couldn’t Happen to a Nicer Guy [with comment by Paul]
As Attorney General of the State of New York, Eric Schneiderman has posed as a liberal crusader. Among many other things, he has accused Exxon Mobil of committing securities fraud in connection with “climate change,” filed a civil suit accusing Trump University of fraud, and initiated more than 50 lawsuits seeking to block Trump administration environmental regulations.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/05/it-couldnt-happen-to-a-nicer-guy.php
The collapse of the energy system will be even more dramatic is it also precipitates a concurrent collapse of the water supply. A major city without water cannot survive 48 hours – maybe less. Think Hong Kong World War II.
I have not read the article but I did read somewhere recently that generating plants that use coal and nuclear are being asset sweated with no re-investment which means in the future they won’t be available also when and how electricity is consumed is changing and how it is billed is changing. The question arises do the people who regulate electricity generation know what they are doing? The regulators do seem to be aware of the issues but are not necessarily prepared to act for fear of upsetting the political consensus driven by the Green blob. It looks like we must encounter a crisis before the Green blob can be over ruled and when it does come it will take years to work through.
Oh I miss Griff so much;)
Timo V
When I asked where he was these days someone suggested he was gradually defecting to our dark side so is resisting any further temptation. Mind you, we still have Ivanksman with all the ultra reliable, scientifically sound, Guardian articles on his blog.
From the PDF: “communist opponents: Russia”
Lets just hope John’s understanding of energy policies is not 20 years behind reality.
There are no communists left in Russia. Fascinating.
Those ten startling acknowledgments should be sent to all energy ministers in all governments that mandate renewable energy targets. But the greenblob bureaucrats will ensure that the ministers remain ignorant of the scientific/engineering facts.
In October 2001 there was a great article in Scientific American (I know, I know) about the potential for disaster if a hurricane were to hit New Orleans. They nailed it. Illinois pension assets are 38% of their liabilities. Blame this kind of stuff on the baby boomers. Most educated generation. Most irresponsible generation. Full disclosure: I was born in 1953.
The good news is that the previous Chair of the NYPSC, Audrey Zibelman, is now the Chief Executive Officer of AEMO, Australia’s energy market operator. The Australian electricity grid is rapidly becoming third world thanks to the run-whenever-you-like generators destroying base load and based load generators with the consequence that high cost gas fuel is gradually displacing low cost coal fuel.
AEMO have forecast that the grid minimum demand in South Australia will be ZERO at times by 2024. Most of Australia is blessed with good sunlight and, if you force the price of grid power up enough, there is a point where making your own becomes economic. South Australia has already achieved that. The grid price is now so high that the Tesla/Samsung big battery could not be paid for from electricity sales but was funded by more State debt.
Zibelman will have left quite a trail by the time she has finished
Should the worst happen with a NY blackout causing widespread mayhem and countless deaths I can see a Neurenberg-style trial happening with some green bullies sent to the gallows.
If anyone needs Elon Musk’s phone number I have it.
He saved South Australia this Summer just gone with that fantastic Battery – or did he??
I think I sniffed some Diesel fumes at some stages.
Can’t wait for the truth to come out!!!!
It will be wrapped up in so much BS and spin, it wont be recognisable. If unpleasant it will be ignored.
I do not know the penetration of smart electrical meters in the US but in the UK we had one million installed last year alone.
As electricity users can choose a provider that ‘promises’ to supply only green energy, what could be done, to increase the virtue of these ‘green’ electrical users is to, via their ‘smart’ meter, shut down their supply once the supply of green energy is used up for that hour. At night they would only have wind energy to use, once that allocation has been sold to some users, the remainder are cut off till the sun comes up. After all, they did choose their supplier…..
It may educate them a little?
‘when insiders were interviewed about what happened,
they acknowledged that everyone-in-the-know knew that
the lending, etc. policies put in place (by lobbyists)
were guaranteed to fail.’
‘was entirely predictable based on the self-serving
unscientific energy policies put in place by lobbyists.’
What is this lobbyist schtick? GOVERNMENT did these
things.
Lobbyists are a reaction to excess government power.
They are not a cause. Get government to stop meddling
in energy production, and the lobbyists will disappear.
An excellent power system reliability report by the National Energy Technology Laboratory describes the grid performance under stress:
From December 27, 2017, to January 8, 2018, a cold weather event—known as the “Bomb Cyclone” (hereinafter “BC”)—stressed the reliability of the affected areas, particularly the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. During this event, the Department of Energy asked NETL to assist in monitoring events in a five-ISO area. Periods of high electricity demand, for example January 4-6, accounted for three of the top ten winter demand days in PJM Interconnection’s (PJM) history. Coal and nuclear generation, traditionally considered baseloadb, produced nearly three-fifths of the output at peak across the 5-independent system operator (ISO) footprint over the 12-day period starting December 28, 2017 (Exhibit 1-1). Prices and natural gas-fired generation output remained relatively flat in Midcontinent ISO (MISO) and Southwest Power Pool (SPP) due to plentiful gas supply, but in eastern PJM, ISO New England (ISO-NE), and New York ISO (NYISO), gas and electric transmission were severely constrained, leading to all-time high gas prices in New York and elevated natural gas and electricity prices across each region.
Some points from the study:
– Wind dropped from 6% to 3 % during the bomb cyclone
– Natural gas prices on the spot market went up by as much as 700%
– New England utilities were forced to use millions of barrels of imported oil since there weren’t any pipelines to carry natural gas from Pennsylvania and West Virginia
– Many of the caseload plants (coal and nuclear) are scheduled to be decommissioned in the near future.
A grid failure of major proportions is brewing.
From the article “. . . The ONLY solution is to change our energy policies to be Science-based . . . ” No No No there is no science involved its engineering so lets correct the statement to “. . . The ONLY solution is to change our energy policies to be sound-engineering-based . . . “.
It is very galling to constantly see the MSM/progressives conflate science and engineering, where it is just plain engineering.
Just because NYISO is incompetent that doesn’t mean wind cannot be integrated into a system well. Case in point (once again) ERCOT which has dramatically more wind than NY, does not have the ability to import hydro from Canada to balance it, has abundant natural gas resources (just like NY), has recently spent massively on infrastructure (just like NY), and has low electricity prices (unlike NY).
Fine. Wind is crap and cannot provide sufficient power to ever make a difference in a grid. Go ahead then and shut down 18% of last year’s generation for ERCOT.
A couple of observations from someone that has been in the industry his whole career. The use of gas to supplement the wind is limited. Gas is not the only fuel available, but it is currently the good guy fuel. The infrastructure to transfer massive amounts of natural gas to remote locations is lacking and therefore gas will eventually become more scarce. Since coal and nuclear plants are being shut down daily that source of power is being reduced.
You cannot store natural gas at each power plant. It is on demand fuel you use it as it is delivered.. If there is an extremely cold winter in New England and the demand for gas for home heating increases dramatically the natural gas going to power plants will be decreased and that power source will be limited. Next power source after you have gotten rid of the evil fossil fuel burning power plants, your gas powered generator.
In this scenario the price of natural gas will spike and the people seeing their higher power and heating bills will complain and rebel. The government officials will move in and demand price controls of natural gas.
How much will they demand in reparations from the Federal budget? They certainly did a coordinated pulic relations con job with “Superstorm Sandy” so they know how to tap marketing skills. It helped to have open checkbook Obama in office for that episode.