The Extent of Global Warming Deception and the Damage is Not Hyperbole

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball.

Normally, I don’t respond to comments about my articles. However, comments about my last article raise questions that I think require context and explanation in the ongoing search for openness and free debate on climate. This applies to even the most extreme challenges to the status quo. Many of the comments are predictable because they come from people who constantly beat the same old drum. It is usually possible to predict who will respond to any subject and what they will say. They are not necessarily trolls, although trolls are ever present, and are usually called-out or ignored. The critical issue is the danger of skeptics becoming a narrow-minded, tunnel-vision group that attacks, rejects, or simply ignores skepticism about the skeptic’s position or views. This is always a problem but is particularly problematic when the prevailing view in this polarized world is that if you are not with me, you must be against me.

The global warming debate has divided into promoters of the claims of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and the skeptics. It is the nature of any group behavior to become increasingly dogmatic. It is part of the conditions that create Groupthink. The promoters are de facto ensnared in Groupthink. The skeptics are in danger of falling into the same condition. Anthony does a very good job of publishing material from across the spectrum. He also struggles with censorship of comments, being as accommodating as possible under the circumstances. It is imperative that as skeptics we keep open minds – that is, skeptics must be open to skepticism about their skepticism.

One of the comments said the article was more reasonable than those I usually produce. The writer said he could understand my anger because of the attacks I experience. While I appreciate his claim, I reject it because the one thing you learn when you choose to challenge authority is that you have no idea how nasty and demoralizing it becomes. People have a sense of the cost, and that is enough to make the vast majority remain silent. There is a reason they pass whistleblower laws, even in America where free speech is championed. As Voltaire said,

“It is dangerous to right in matters where men in authority are wrong.”

The truth is I consciously moderate my writings because of Ingersoll’s comments. Unfortunately, because of events and facts fading into history and the relentless spin and cover-up by AGW proponents, the level of deliberate deception and extent of the damage done is not appreciated by most anymore. But don’t just take my word for it. Consider the words of the late Professor Hal Lewis, Emeritus Professor of physics, when he discovered that the executive of the American Physical Society (APS) had given their support, without consultation with the membership, to the AGW story. He resigned in a very public protest. As he wrote in his October 2010 resignation letter,

“the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist.”

Challenges to official climate science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began small and gradually grew. It was pushed harder than normal for a few reasons;

  • The people selected to participate in the IPCC were picked and controlled by the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
  • Because of protests, a charade of external examiners was created. It was a charade because none of the early submissions were included.
  • Several prominent people, like Richard Lindzen and Chris Landsea, resigned from the IPCC in protest about the practices and procedures.
  • By 1995, the first major scandal involving Benjamin Santer and unauthorized alterations to Chapter 8 were exposed.
  • After the forecast failures of the 1990 Report, the IPCC created a range of projections to improve chances of being correct.
  • The IPCC did not follow scientific method because they set out to ‘prove’ the hypothesis rather than disprove it.
  • The attacks on scientists who dared to practice proper science by challenging the hypothesis drew concern and attention.
  • Growing awareness of the disparity between the Science Report and the Summary for Policymakers.
  • Many knew that Al Gore’s claim that the science was settled is wrong.
  • Important early skeptical web sites, like John Daly’s Still Waiting for Greenhouse, Anthony Watt’s Watts Up With That?, Steve McIntyre’s Climate Audit, and Sherwood Idso’s CO2 Science, provided forums for the skeptical view suppressed by those trying to prove the AGW hypothesis.

The shameful behavior was and continues to be by the business world, especially the energy sector. They profess to have a social conscience and care about the environment, but their actions belie those claims. If anyone has the expertize to know that the science of anthropogenic global warming was wrong, it is the energy companies. Despite this, they chose to appease the environmentalists. They are now learning that you cannot appease extremists. Besides as Churchill said,

“An appeaser is one who feeds the crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.”

Donna Laframboise wrote about the millions of dollars the appeasers paid out in a 2012 article titled, “Big Oil Money for Me, But Not for Thee.”

When I think of the devastating cost to me, both financial and emotional, all based on lies and misinformation made by these receivers of oil money, it is surprising I am as calm and controlled as I am. Remember, the basis for their proof is that I am a liar and totally compromised because they say I received money from oil companies. The sad part is I never received a single penny from any oil company. Presumably, the environmentalists who did receive the money are the ones compromised. At the very least, they are absolute hypocrites.

The truth is the oil executives didn’t care about the scientific truth regarding global warming or carbon dioxide. It was profitable public relations to say they were saving the environment and the planet because they received tax write-offs for the contributions and simply passed on other costs to the consumer. They were also able to practice advocacy advertising, an activity environmentalists condemned in the 1970s and 80s. This was the charge that corporations were advertising political positions rather than a selling a product. Environmentalists, who said they could not afford such advertising, wanted a law requiring the corporation provide money, or pay for equal time and space, for their opposing view.

Perhaps the ultimate irony in all this expensive game-playing, or by its official name, politics, is that it could occur at all. The impact at the political level was not consequential or damaging, besides it is likely they were being paid off. The trillions of dollars Lewis speaks about all came out of the pockets of the people. Worse, it came at the expense of development and improvements in all sectors of the economy. This was starkly brought home when India said that the claimed damage to the environment that justified restrictions and imposition were as nothing compared to the number of people starving to death or without electricity. In this fatuous world, it is no surprise that the US Senate made somewhat similar first-world comparisons of hardship when they voted not to vote on the Kyoto Protocol (KP). They put on the cloak of green by avoiding a vote on the KP. Instead, they voted on the Byrd/Hagel resolution, which asked if they should vote on KP. The debate involved consideration of the socio-economic costs and benefits of implementing KP. They voted 95-0 not to vote on the KP.

A similar situation exists today concerning the Paris Climate Agreement. The energy companies and politicians could easily show that the science doesn’t justify the policy, but they continue to be complicit. They could also show that the environmental and climate impacts from implementing the complete Agreement are laughable. Bjorn Lomborg says,

The climate impact of all Paris INDC promises is minuscule: if we measure the impact of every nation fulfilling every promise by 2030, the total temperature reduction will be 0.048°C (0.086°F) by 2100. (His emphasis).

Even if we assume that these promises would be extended for another 70 years, there is still little impact: if every nation fulfills every promise by 2030 and continues to fulfill these promises faithfully until the end of the century, and there is no ‘CO₂ leakage’ to non-committed nations, the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce temperature rises by just 0.17°C (0.306°F) by 2100.

Notice that even if he is 100% wrong it is still inconsequential. How many real-world problems of suffering, misery, and death, could be eliminated using the billions of dollars wasted every day on the completely false claim of AGW? The underlying objective of the AGW deception was to reduce world population. It is not a problem, but if it was, the best solution is development using fossil fuels.

Climate is a vehicle for wealth transfer in the naive belief it will help ‘poor’ people. Ottar Edenhofer, co-chair of the IPCC WGIII from 2008 to 2015, explained.

“One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy,” “We redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy.”

It is another aid program, but like them all, it doesn’t and can’t work.

I listened to a professional emotion-laden plea for money for children starving in Ethiopia because of a drought. The problem is there are always droughts in Ethiopia. How did these people manage in the past? The children are dying because of the decisions of their parents and government and the abetting provided by our giving to such appeals for funds or our foreign aid. Why aren’t the adults and government of Ethiopia helping? They always have money for guns and bombs.

Ethiopia spent $5,438,000,000 on their military budget in the 12 years from 2001-2012. They reduced the amount as the civil war ended, although they still spent $329 million in 2012, but by 2015 it was back up to $404.5 million. Yes, the children are the innocent bystanders, but it is pure exploitation of emotions to make it my concern when the parents and people of Ethiopia can’t get their priorities right. Worse, we further the failures and distortions with any aid. As it is said, foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of the rich country and giving it to the rich people of the poor country. What this tells me is that there is a failure of leadership at both ends of the transfer of funds. I believe it will continue until we get angry enough to expose and stop it. Environmentalists and energy companies are complicit with the politicians in the perpetuation of abuse, death, and destruction.

I know this article will trigger the predictable narrow responses and the trolls. However, I also hope it will remind others of the extent of the deception, and loss of lives and lost opportunities of this greatest deception in human history.

—————

Post Script:

Sad to lose John Coleman who I had the privilege of meeting at Heartland Climate Conferences. He was confident, forthright, and powerful, but not bullying in his views because he revered what Robert Ingersoll called the Holy Trinity of Science, Reason, Observation, and Experience. T.B.

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February 4, 2018 1:28 pm

Ditto current, recent and past postings.
Think my observations are incorrect? Step right up, bring science, etc.
As a retiree clipping coupons, corporate etc. back lash not of concern.

Stephen Duval
Reply to  nickreality65
February 5, 2018 8:09 am

Gorebull Warming is not science, it is a Public Relations campaign to justify looting the government and the poor for crony capitalists who profit from unreliables.
Rupert Darwall has written an excellent history of the Green movement “Green Tyranny: Exposing the Totalitarian Roots of the Climate Industrial Complex”.
https://www.amazon.com/Green-Tyranny-Exposing-Totalitarian-Industrial/dp/1594039356/
It traces Green history from the Nazis to Sweden (first climate change conference in Stockholm) to the New Left takeover of Germany in the 70′ and 80’s and their alliance with the Greens to the IPCC to the American Foundations and Green billionaires.
Rupert Darwall is not a scientist. He is a wonderfully lucid historian of intellectual and political movements, who explains what has been inflicted on us over the past 30 years or so in the name of saving the planet.
Great interview of Darwall at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnXatjSeWWE&feature=youtu.be

February 4, 2018 1:34 pm

It is another aid program, but like them all, it doesn’t and can’t work.

These are two different statements:

It is another aid program

OK. Your article proves that is true as the IPCC agrees that the Paris Accord will do next to nothing to affect the climate.

but like them all, it doesn’t and can’t work.

That is mere opinion.

Pompous Git
Reply to  M Courtney
February 4, 2018 2:07 pm

That is mere opinion.

But one shared by many:
Is Aid Killing Africa? Dambisa Moyo talks about Dead Aid on ABC

South River Independent
Reply to  Pompous Git
February 4, 2018 8:37 pm

Her book Dead Aid is available on Amazon.

Reply to  M Courtney
February 4, 2018 2:13 pm

Evidence-based opinion.
However, there should be a slight edit to the statement.

but like them all, the vast majority do not and can’t work.

There are a tiny minority of aid agencies that provide things the receiving peoples cannot. Expertise for infrastructure projects (the receivers actually do the work of building). Concrete things that the receivers do not have the natural resources to produce (no copper ore, no copper for transmission lines) – or that due to economies of scale, are economically ridiculous to set up in the host country (many drugs and vaccines).
But these ethical and intelligent aid programs are small in number, and chronically underfunded. Their results do not generate immediate “feels” to gratify their donors, nor are they acknowledged by the demanders of virtue signals.

Reply to  Writing Observer
February 4, 2018 2:15 pm

Gah. Strike “doesn’t,” unstrike “do.” Tag problems…

Reply to  Writing Observer
February 4, 2018 5:21 pm

Micro-finance programs may actually work. This is because they generally don’t involve a lot of money and are decentralized, which reduces their attractiveness as targets to be ripped off by corrupt officials. The latter part of this book on helping the poor discusses this approach:
https://www.amazon.com/When-Helping-Hurts-Alleviate-Yourself/dp/0802409989/ref=sr_1_1_twi_pap_2

Reply to  M Courtney
February 4, 2018 2:17 pm

Hundreds and hundreds of billions spent in Africa since 1960, and what has it got? A bit of recent insight.

Hugs
Reply to  Pat Frank
February 5, 2018 1:44 am

Money does not fix corrupt goverments. It makes it worse. Still, I’m giving some money to Zimbabwe to educate / feed my few children there. They’ll get their basic education and can then emigrate to RSA for income. Feeds 10 people in the long run.

MarkW
Reply to  M Courtney
February 5, 2018 10:00 am

In your opinion, it is mere opinion.
However reality trumps your opinion.
All aid programs have failed, and most have made the problem they attempted to solve worse.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
February 5, 2018 10:04 am

In the heat of the moment, I probably over spoke.
Let me revise that to say that “all government aid programs fail”.
Of private aid programs, many fail, but a few do manage to help.
The ones that do help are small programs that focus on helping individuals.
A previous church had a program where they partnered with local charities to drill wells for remote villages.
Providing access to clean water and freeing up women and children from having to spend hours a day trudging to the local river for water.

February 4, 2018 1:35 pm

May Mr. Ball live to the age of Moses, we need his voice, his experience and most of all his humanity.

AGW is not Science
Reply to  John D. Smith
February 4, 2018 2:14 pm

Agreed 100%. One of the most level-headed individuals involved in the debate.

Chris Wright
Reply to  AGW is not Science
February 5, 2018 3:30 am

I don’t agree 100%
I agree 110% !
Tim Ball is a voice of reason and sanity in a world that is completely barking mad – at least as far as climate change is concerned.
Chris

NME666
February 4, 2018 1:35 pm

the greatest impediment to human advancement in science, social standing, and wealth, is belief!

judtaylor
February 4, 2018 1:41 pm

Voltaire quote
from
“It is dangerous to right in matters where men in authority are wrong.”
to
“It is dangerous to be right in matters where men in authority are wrong.”

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  judtaylor
February 4, 2018 3:11 pm

Another typo: It’s Ottmar Edenhofer.

Raven
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
February 4, 2018 10:25 pm

Also, the link for that Ottmar Edenhofer quote leads to an earlier WUWT post.
The link in that earlier WUWT post leads to a ‘404’ at the GWPF for me.
Perhaps the link needs to be updated?
I believe this is the correct GWPF link:
https://www.thegwpf.com/ipcc-official-climate-policy-is-redistributing-the-worlds-wealth/

Ben of Houston
February 4, 2018 1:44 pm

As an employee of one of said energy companies, I can confirm that we know precisely what we are doing. The legal team actually pitched Carbon Trading to the environmental group by talking about how much money we were going to make off of it.
“Green” Investment decisions are made by public relations, not the HSE department. We are responsible for reducing real pollutants, such as VOCs, NOx, and HAPS. The solar investments are made by financing, not engineering. Real science need not apply because they are not relevant to making a profit.

Komrade Kuma
Reply to  Ben of Houston
February 4, 2018 2:14 pm

Ben, your outline of reality only identifies the true idiocy of the green blob apparatchiks. They have no concept of the proper quantification of things in decision making only the propaganda value of certain actions.
The real issue as I see it is the terrible damage they are and will keep doing to the reputation of ‘western’ culture, the ‘enlightenment’ etc and the free kicks they will give to the thugocracies such as Putin’s regime, Erdogans, the Ayalatollahs and the Chinese etc.
That these arrogant, propaganda driven narcissists have go this far is a disgrace and especially to the MSM who are supposed to be part of our gate keeping institutuions.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Komrade Kuma
February 4, 2018 5:41 pm

The MSM are only keeping the gate of those who pay them.

Kristi Silber
Reply to  Ben of Houston
February 4, 2018 4:54 pm

From what I understand, the oil companies have been pitching to environmentalists at the same time they have been funding decades of propaganda and disinformation. Is that something you’d be privy to?

Sheri
Reply to  Kristi Silber
February 4, 2018 5:42 pm

Propaganda and disinformation? Conspiracy much?

Roger Knights
Reply to  Kristi Silber
February 4, 2018 5:45 pm

“From what I understand, the oil companies have been … funding decades of propaganda and disinformation.”
They have been funding pro-business think tanks that devote maybe 10% of their income to the climate change issue. (This is artfully concealed by accusatory alarmist newsletters and sites, who imply that all that money is going to the climate change issue by saying that ^oil companies have donated umpty million dollars to climate-skeptic foundations and think tanks.^)
In my guest-thread Notes From Skull Island I list 22 things that we climate contrarians (“skeptic” is too mild a term) would be doing differently if we were in fact well organized and well funded:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/16/notes-from-skull-island-why-skeptics-arent-well-funded-and-well-organized/

Roger Knights
Reply to  Kristi Silber
February 4, 2018 7:31 pm

PS: Oil companies would still be funding those pro-business organizations even if there were no climate-change issue.

Hugs
Reply to  Kristi Silber
February 5, 2018 1:54 am

An artful lie is where you imply things that you never said.

Ben of Houston
Reply to  Kristi Silber
February 5, 2018 5:05 pm

Yes, it is something I’d be privy to, but it’s something that just hasn’t happened.
Any research that is funded is either published publicly, kept for internal profit, or spun by public relations. Otherwise, what’s the point of doing the research? As for funding of public groups, almost all of them are transparently oil-industry groups. High corporate fears both revelations from news organizations and the SEC far too much to do anything clandestine.

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Ben of Houston
February 4, 2018 8:35 pm

Enron was desperately pushing for carbon-trading market and hoping to run it.

February 4, 2018 1:47 pm

Tim, you have the “redistribution to the poor” wrong. The redistribution is a basic one-off to impoverish America primarily. The unparalleled strength, innovativeness and productivity of America’s free-enterprise system is the bugbear of the Neo-Marxybrothers, whose record by comparison makes for poor advertising of their ideology. The Neo stuff is really тоталiтагеаиэм by Champagne Soshulists (Champs). The Davos gang will be fine but the rest of us will be completely controlled. You have an inkling of the truth re the oil companies, really, the Champs are paying off big industry to join them by ensuring big profits. Its exactly how Maurice Strong was using capitalism – to fund the elitist global control element. The poor are already screwed. The constituency for Trump was just such people and this may have been the last chance for a reversal because another election cycle with all the walking dumb having completed their non-educations and would then be of age to swing the “Progressives” agenda – they want the world’s poor to simply die off (that’s always been part of it). Third world countries are easy to control because you just have to give payola to the heads of state to do as they are told.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 4, 2018 1:50 pm

This is why they hate Russia, too – they won’t go along. They have no quibbles about some of the most barbaric despots around the world as long as they go along with the “Plan”.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 4, 2018 2:21 pm

True story. Anybody who opposes that plan is automatically assumed to be under the influence of Putin himself. It’s convenient for the shallow-minded and fits the religion of the media.

Hugs
Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 5, 2018 1:59 am

The Trump deranged can’t decide if Trump has been bought by Putin or is going to start a nuclear war with him.

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Gary Pearse
February 5, 2018 2:40 am

Seen on a T shirt from USA
http://www.geoffsuff.com/trump_putin.jpg
Geoff

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
February 5, 2018 2:42 am
Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
February 5, 2018 2:44 am

Oh dear, the blue pill is slow today.
http://www.geoffstuff.com/trump_putin.jpg

Bruce Cobb
February 4, 2018 1:50 pm

“It is imperative that as skeptics we keep open minds – that is, skeptics must be open to skepticism about their skepticism.”
Of course. But that assumes that our “skepticism” is simply a knee-jerk reaction. For many, if not most of us, our “skepticism” was not a priori. Au contraire, many of us were believers before, although it was because we simply didn’t know what the argument was. We simply assumed that what we were being told was true, having no reason not to. Therefor, it was precisely having an open mind which led us to skepticism in the first place. And now, you are telling us to “keep an open mind”. LOL.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 4, 2018 2:47 pm

Right Bruce, the fact that our individual intuitions became suspicious of the “settled science” is exactly the sign of possessing open and unbiased thought.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 4, 2018 3:24 pm

Actually, shouldn’t skepticism of skeptic views be confined to neutral third-party observations? Otherwise they are simply counter-arguments attacking the skeptic stance by definition.
Time for an argument clinic.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Pop Piasa
February 4, 2018 4:32 pm

Scepticism isn’t automatic or determined disbelief. It is just not automatic or uncritical or total belief. I originally accepted that AGW was the scientific consensus and therefore probably correct. I studied it more closely to satisfy myself that this was the case.
The degree of scientific fraud and corruption and strong linkage to the demented ideas of the Left were a shock to me as a long-time science buff but confirmed my cynicism about modern politics and the education system. We (Western civilization) are in deep , self-inflicted trouble!

afonzarelli
Reply to  Pop Piasa
February 4, 2018 5:03 pm

John, i think that many of us assumed that climate scientists had all their ducks in a row (they did, it’s just that they weren’t all quacking)…

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 4, 2018 9:32 pm

No: Its not about keeping an open mind, so much as looking at everything critically.
This article echoes many concerns I have had -some of te posts here simply dont stand up to scrutiny and are actually fodder for warmists to discredit the skeptical position. This is not one of them, though

MarkW
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 5, 2018 10:10 am

I was skeptical from the git-go.
Not from any special knowledge. I had just spent a number of years fighting against the ozone hole scare story. I noticed that most of the same people who had pushed that sc@m were also leading the global warming push, I quickly jumped into skeptical mode.
After a few months of researching I determined that my initial instincts were dead on.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
February 5, 2018 11:48 am

Ozone hole and acid rain scares.

Mike McMillan
February 4, 2018 1:55 pm

“It is dangerous to right in matters where men in authority are wrong.”
… to Be right …”

Mike McMillan
Reply to  Mike McMillan
February 4, 2018 2:22 pm

Dr Ball is right about Big Oil. They don’t really care about climate one way or the other.
If the govt makes them reduce drilling, less oil but the oil price goes up, so they do okay. Drill all you want, more oil, the price goes down but they sell more oil, so they do okay.
The govt decrees that they must add alcohol and nitromethane and aspartame to their gas, the cost goes up, but so does the price, so they do okay. The thing is, no matter what, they know we can’t get along without oil, so it’s mainly PR with them.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Mike McMillan
February 4, 2018 3:34 pm

“The govt decrees that they must add alcohol and nitromethane and aspartame to their gas”
Mike, don’t forget BP with invigorate. That explains the whole thing to the consumer (who buys the whole dog-and-pony-show so he can fuel his vehicles and implements).

A C Osborn
Reply to  Mike McMillan
February 5, 2018 8:23 am

They have been involved in knocking Coal to get Gas to replace it. A win Win for them.

markl
February 4, 2018 2:14 pm

I agree with your assessment but find no solace in a solution.

F. Leghorn
February 4, 2018 2:30 pm

Well said, sir. Live long and prosper.

Editor
February 4, 2018 2:32 pm

Dr. Ball ==> I have emailed you thru your website contact app.

Ron Long
February 4, 2018 2:33 pm

Unlike you Tim, I took money from an oil company. Big bucks from CONOCO! As a Geologist I wrote a Letter to the Editor for the Reno, Nevada newspaper talking about the unlikely validity of the Anthropogenic Global Warming theory based on common geologic markers showing normal variance. My house phone rang and it was this guy and his son waiting for me in my front yard to beat the hell out of me for my support of pollution. I was a concealed carry permit holder and I went out to eliminate this risk to my household. They fled immediately, but what a sobering experience for a scientist expressing a personal opinion about a scientific process. Your story reminds me also of Willie Soon and others like him. Thanks to Anthony Watts for great forums like this one where scientific opinions are shared.

gnomish
Reply to  Ron Long
February 4, 2018 9:48 pm

bravo mr long! way to win without debate!

MarkW
Reply to  gnomish
February 5, 2018 10:11 am

Are you implying that the man and his son were there to debate?

Randy in Ridgecrest
Reply to  Ron Long
February 5, 2018 6:07 am

On my property? Mossberg 500

Reply to  Ron Long
February 5, 2018 10:29 am

Reno, Nevada… I’m guessing he drove to your house to try to beat the hell out of you while complaining about fossil fuel pollution?

The Reverend Badger
February 4, 2018 2:55 pm

Dr.Ball’s work and efforts in this area are very much appreciated in the anti-CAGW circles which I frequent.
The comment about skeptic groupthink is quite important. We (anti-CAGW groups) still appear to have competing and mutually exclusive opinions on how the atmosphere really works.
For example there are those who agree almost entirely with the radiative forcing theories of CAGW but think the effect is smaller (e.g. <1 degree per 100 years) and therefore no cause for worry. There are those who believe there is no greenhouse effect at all and/or no such thing as a greenhouse gas. There are those who have some outlier theories about gravity / pressure such as Nikolov & Zeller and the charismatic Doug Cotton. There are also a few who are honest enough to admit that, being scientifically rigorous, we actually do not know for sure how the atmosphere works.
I suggest the time has come for all skeptic sides to unite under the idea of trying to find out exactly how the atmosphere does in fact work and to do so via carefully designed experiments which may eliminate or confirm one or more of the competing theories.
By carefully designed experiments I do not mean people who have doctorates messing about with hand held I.R. thermometers , heat lamps, trays of ice cubes or any nonsense like that.
Whatever your personal view on which theory is correct or which is BS you should not be afraid of seeing some experiments take place which may confirm or refute your view. If you are afraid or argue against conducting such experiments I would suggest you are a member of a "religion" and not a club of scientists trying to find out the truth.
I would therefore like to see some intelligent discussion of how we can test one or more of the theories of atmospheric heat transfer by real world experiments. We have had enough talking about it both from those who are highly qualified, from those who get even the basics wrong and even (as seen on WUWT) supposedly qualified experts who both get the basics wrong AND spend 50% of their time hurling insults around.
Enough already ! To the lab…… Who is with me?

Paul Blase
Reply to  The Reverend Badger
February 4, 2018 4:19 pm

The best, if not only, way to test these theories would be to thoroughly instrument a column of the atmosphere – say 1km on a side – and measure everything going into or out of it. Sunlight at the top, winds in and out, temperatures, humidity, and pressure everywhere at high resolution. Possibly you could do it with a few hundred thousand drones.

Auto
Reply to  Paul Blase
February 4, 2018 5:30 pm

Paul,
Yes.
This is – or will shortly become – reasonable.
If Amazon is delivering by drone, it’s cheap [I Guess].
And why not do this for lots of square kilometres. – perhaps thousands or tens of thousands.
Allows a better appreciation of the world.
Some 500 million square kilometres.
100,000 such areas – one in 5,000/. But a better idea than our present ideas.
The cost should not be horrendous.
Auto

HotScot
Reply to  Paul Blase
February 5, 2018 2:56 am

Paul
There is little sense in chucking more scientific money at ‘climate change’. There are measurements and equipment Criss crossing the globe already and they only add complication to the debate.
I suspect your column concept would do the same, and the more columns added would further complicate matters with huge amounts of data which, if it could be computed, would simply throw up more conflicts.
The fact is, as Tim points out, the AGW movement has little to do with science, it’s a socialist wealth distribution system so the solution will be political, not scientific.
Trump seems to have grasped that concept and has begun to hollow out the EPA, thereby demonstrating that less science is needed, not more.

MarkW
Reply to  Paul Blase
February 5, 2018 10:14 am

Auto, all those drones will so churn up the atmosphere that the readings taken will be meaningless.

Alasdair
Reply to  The Reverend Badger
February 5, 2018 4:09 am

Dear Reverend:
Sadly I will not be joining you, although concurring with much of what you say.
My reason is that solvable linear equations are not able to deal with chaotic systems such as the climate and can only have validity where the principle of Ceteris Paribus is invoked; an impossibility in a chaotic system. Hence Lab. experiments are not very useful for prediction here.
Similarly, prediction in a chaotic system is precluded as its stability at any one time has the propensity to change for no apparent reason. This propensity being, I suspect, due to quantum mechanics properties.
Generally current science has a reductive mindset, whereby all may be explained by deeper and deeper observation and this has served extremely well over the years.
However, where chaos is involved a different mindset is required which is only just emerging; but I have no clue about that. What “Strange Attractors” and “Fractals”, etc. mean are quite beyond me in the field of Chaos Theory.
However, having said all that, I think that we should unite to challenge in detail the logical or otherwise route taken by the IPCC et al in arriving at the AGW conclusions.
To me this route is riddled with anomalies, dubious assumptions, inaccuracies and disregard for thermodynamic law and these need to be addressed rather than attempting to challenge manipulated statistic figures to prove a negative.
As an example: Does the IPCC definition of Radiative Forcing (RF) comply with Thermodynamic Law? I think NOT.
How say anyone?
My regards

MarkW
Reply to  The Reverend Badger
February 5, 2018 10:12 am

You can’t drive out bad science, with more bad science.
We have to police our own as vigorously as we do the AGWers.

Reply to  The Reverend Badger
February 5, 2018 10:35 am

I’m with you. I’d like to try an experiment in a tall column of non-GH air, say pure nitrogen, insulated from the outside as much as possible – maybe in the Vehicle Assembly Building. It doesn’t have to be kilometers high. Then I’d like to measure the air temperature at the top and the bottom, and put to rest the argument about steady-state lapse rate in a gravitational field in the absence of convection. (I don’t think a steady-state insulated column of nitrogen would experience any convection.)

sysyphus/
Reply to  Steve Keppel-Jones
February 6, 2018 5:06 pm

Very hard to replicate such a larger open system in a lab. Or on a supercomputer for that matter. You would have to replicate an enormous amount of variables that can all vary in extreme ranges individually. To know all the forces acting on that column of air on the planet earth would be a great start.

Carlie J. Coats, Jr., Ph.D.
February 4, 2018 3:08 pm

About the WMO…
Contrary to international treaties dating aback as far as 1833, the duly-enacted ISO Standard 6709, and all of the GIS software on the planet and all the maps, for that matter, which all insist that the proper range of lonbgitudes is from -180 to 180, the WMO continues to push its “standard” interpretation of Longitude as ranging from 0 to 360.
Enough said!

David McGruer
February 4, 2018 3:26 pm

Dr. Ball, reading this article invoked a feeling of deep sadness in me – sadness at the depth of the AGW deception, sadness at the loss of rationality in society and sadness at the harm to so very many human lives perpetrated by the AGW fear mongers. Thank you for caring so passionately and sharing your insights.

February 4, 2018 3:34 pm

Dear Dr. Ball,
You said:
It is imperative that as skeptics we keep open minds – that is, skeptics must be open to skepticism about their skepticism.
Sorry, but I do see some a fundamental lack of skepticism in your own writings of last time about ice cores. You still think that the late Dr. Jaworowski was right about what he wrote in 1992 (and repeated in 2007). Many of his objections against ice cores were already refuted in 1996 by the work of Etheridge e.a. on three ice cores at Law Dome.
Moreover, since that time ice core research didn’t stop looking for better methods. Where they needed a few meters of core in the 1980’s for a CO2 measurement, they now need a few cm3 and with the latest sublimation / mass spectrometer measurements, nothing can hide in the ice cores of any solid, liquid or gas in all its isotopes.
Skeptics indeed should be more skeptic about their own ideas and prejudices, especially where the other side is right or they discredit themselves where the other side is on more shaky gounds.
It is not because one accepts that ice cores are good quality – be it smoothed – stores of ancient air and that humans are responsible for most of the recent 110 ppmv increase in the atmosphere, that one does accept that much of the recent warming is from that increase. That are unrelated questions…
Thus please, while I do admire most of your work and your years of struggle with the money and power of the other side, a did expect a little more self-skepticism from you in the case of ice cores research…

Reply to  Ferdinand Engelbeen
February 4, 2018 4:23 pm

Ferdinand – I read Dr Ball’s ice core piece as him being skeptical about his (and everyone else’s) skepticism. But I will agree with you that he could have been a bit more skeptical about his skepticism of his skepticism.
I hope I made that clear 🙂

Reply to  Ferdinand Engelbeen
February 6, 2018 7:08 am

Englebean
Didn’t we give Dr. Ball a hard enough
time about his last article,
in the comments
following that article,
so that it is not necessary
to give him a hard time
about his last article again,
in the comments
for this new article?

Reply to  Richard Greene
February 6, 2018 12:09 pm

Richard Green,
I agree that I have been quite critical last time… But I expected some more reaction from Dr. Ball on the critique there – or here – on my objections…

HDHoese
February 4, 2018 3:39 pm

I have said this before, but the degree in which too much of academia has degraded in the last several decades is at a minimum juvenile, at the most criminal, as in varying levels of defamation. Some juvenile behavior might be expected in younger faculty and researchers, but seems to have crept into administration where the individuals are older and supposed to be responsibly wiser. I have experienced and observed this in parts of science relevant, but not limited to, the climate problem and some few other academic fields. Just read what is now allowed to be written in ‘scientific’ publications.
I was told from good authority that in Louisiana, at least, if you accuse somebody erroneously of a felony, you do not have to prove damage, but just that someone said it. It may have changed, but it doesn’t take much to accuse someone of a tort at least close to a felony.
Rumor and innuendo are all too human, but one would think that responsibility would be ingrained in an educated class simply by learning its operation and successful past. Outlining ethical behaviors, as is now common, means that the barn door has been long open, many horses lost. Dr. Ball, losing horses has repercussions. Hang in there.
Disclaimer, I have taken oil money, but they did not always like what I told them.

KT66
Reply to  HDHoese
February 4, 2018 5:33 pm

HDHoese wrote: “Some juvenile behavior might be expected in younger faculty and researchers, but seems to have crept into administration where the individuals are older and supposed to be responsibly wiser. I have experienced and observed this in parts of science relevant, but not limited to, the climate problem and some few other academic fields. Just read what is now allowed to be written in ‘scientific’ publications.”
Such administrators and gate keepers do not care about integrity of the research or the science, but about short term reputation of their institutions. They do not care about the long term reputations of their institutions because they know the public’s memory is short. Long term consequences are borne by other s or there will be no long term consequences- and least to them and the institutions they are part of. And then there’s the money aspect. Virtue signaling, or the opposite perception, has immediate short term consequences and rewards.
Oil company administrators have similar motives.

Bruce Cobb
February 4, 2018 3:56 pm

[snip -over the top -mod]

Edwin
February 4, 2018 5:16 pm

I was raised, educated and worked as a scientist. I was taught that skepticism, especially of one’s own work was vital to the process. I was hanging around climatologists and oceanographers when AGW first begin to hit the mainstream. I was told by some of them to beware of what was coming. Like some others I started out believing that there was some truth to AGW. Yet as I dug deeper and paid closer attention I discovered that good science was certainly not the driving force behind those that were becoming ever more vocal about the issue. I was then asked by several high level officials in my state to delve deeper into the issue and give them my assessment. That led me to discoveries of behavior by people calling themselves scientists that made me ill. The gross manipulation of facts and data, the deliberate ignoring of historical perspective, all solely to support the “hypothesis” of AGW to the public and high official made me sad and to a certain extent angry. That almost all of the so called catastrophic warming predictions was based on computer models, well I had seen that story before working in marine fisheries management, which involved some of the same federal agency promoting AGW.

February 4, 2018 5:18 pm

” …. in Louisiana, at least, if you accuse somebody erroneously of a felony, you do not have to prove damage, but just that someone said it. ” Yes, under English Common Law, which applies to most of the UK Commonwealth (or former Commonwealth) countries, accusation of a felony eg an arrestable offence, is actionable per se. Common Law principles are now subject to erosion by “progressives”. Good luck claiming the right to self-defence, right to use reasonable force to repel trespassers etc.

Sheri
February 4, 2018 5:49 pm

Did anyone here recognize AGW for the unscientific mess it is from the beginning?

jim
Reply to  Sheri
February 4, 2018 8:01 pm

Yes, I was working in the UK electricity industry when Maggie wanted something to promote nuclear and destroy the coal industry ( late 70s, early 80s). The coolists had already changed into warmists, but Maggie gave it political clout and encouraged the setting up of bodies that were then used to promote an ideology on the back of pseudo-scientific nonsense. The electricity industry executives saw the opportunity to get rich on the promises of eventual privatisation ( 10 years in the making) and ‘going green’ was advertising heaven for promotion of a tasteless, smell-less,invisible product that everyone took for granted and didn’t want to pay for.
Everyone in the industry knew then and since that it was all hogwash. But politicians wanted it, and people went along with it if it meant personal wealth. Remember 70s Britain was pretty dire, and the idea that nationalised industry executives could dream of ‘private company’ rewards was very tempting.
Of course the whole thing was grabbed by socialists in western europe, and soon by politicians in the US who saw the opportunity to use it for power, and by the late 80s it had a life of its own across the western world.
I am not proud of my own position in any of this, I was never a ‘believer’ that found out the error of my ways.

Reply to  Sheri
February 5, 2018 6:48 am

I did, Sheri. The first time I ever remember even paying attention to the phrase “Global Warming” was when then Gov of California Ahnold said in press conference, “The science is iiiin. Man has created the Global Varmink” I knew right at that moment there was a problem. And it’s only gone downhill from there looking at the squiggly lines and the papers that assume the conclusion and the Warmer Trolling and the stupidity that currently has control of science culture.
Andrew

Edwin
Reply to  Sheri
February 5, 2018 7:21 am

I knew scientists in and around the field of climatology, oceanography, etc when this mess began. Initially there were just a few looking at what they concluded was an interesting hypothesis. At the time access to super computers and climate models was just expanding. There were at least two camps, one that had falling deeply in love with computer models and believed they were the be all to end all, our answer to explaining the natural world. The other group believed that climate (and most natural systems) was just way too complex to model accurately even with the fastest and most sophisticated computers. This last group knew we didn’t know enough to model the climate to be able to determine with any accuracy what the primary drivers if any, besides the oceans and sun. As I think I have written before remember that AGW suddenly became news about the time the money for meteorology, climatology and oceanography from DOD (although washed through many other alphabet agencies) appeared to be going to dry up. The UK government also funded such research. Both the USA and UK had recognized since D-Day that predicting weather was of strategic importance. Hiding nuclear missile submarines required knowing as much as possible about the thermal structure of the oceans. So with the possibility of the big money drying up for research what to do? Create a crisis! Sadly the socialists and environmental community were looking for some rallying point about the same time.

MarkW
Reply to  Sheri
February 5, 2018 10:19 am

My early skepticism was based more on the character of those who first pushed the CAGW claim.
I had never looked into the science prior to that.
Based on my skepticism regarding the individuals involved, I did look into the science and found that there was nothing there.

Reply to  Sheri
February 6, 2018 7:16 am

Good question Sheri:
Took me two days,
back in 1997, after
I started reading
about global warming,
to wonder how anyone
could predict the climate
in 100 years, when they
were unable to predict
local weather beyond a week.
I’ve always had a BS meter
that goes off when someone
tries to predict the future,
and predictions of the future
were the entire argument
for CAGW … and still are !
It took me two days
because there WAS some
warming in the 1990s,
but as soon as I learned
there was cooling from
1940 to 1975, I dumped
the CO2 controls the climate
theory in the garbage can.
Also important was that
Al “The Blimp” Gore
was leading the charge —
he sounded like the
Bozo the Clown
of climate science
in the 1990s, and
still does.
http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com

February 4, 2018 5:49 pm

This is not about science. It is about money going somewhere or other people imposing their personal belief system on you.
If you want to pay money to someone and let them impose their beliefs on you, you can agree with the global warming religion.
Otherwise, you should DEMAND proof.

Gerald Machnee
February 4, 2018 5:51 pm

Dr. Ball’s remarks about the oil industry are correct.
However they will likely have to change their attitude and hire real scientists (skeptical version) to fight the scamming lawsuits in New York and California. They should not pay a cent.
Because governments like our own in Canada have accepted the “word” of the pseudo-scientists rather than real science could face the same problem. However politicians are not too concerned as they are playing with taxpayers money.

Steve Fraser
Reply to  Gerald Machnee
February 4, 2018 7:15 pm

A development in the Exxon stockholder report is an interesting change, reported just recently:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/02/hilarious-exxon-concludes-climate-policies-will-have-minimal-impact/

February 4, 2018 6:04 pm

Dr Ball.
Another succinct and valuable contribution.
Some thought that the election of Trump would change things in short order. Now Trump is keen on renegotiation of Paris agreement. If he renegotiates it will be a form of endorsement.
The level of entrenched agw belief is so strong, it will take years and a lot more than trump to reverse. In New Zealand the AGW mandate is in full swing, with not a single skeptic heard on radio or TV. Trump is portrayed as a buffoon so anything he says on AGW is dismissed.
With regards.

HotScot
Reply to  ozonebust
February 5, 2018 3:47 am

Ozone bust
I’m not sure anyone believes Trump can make an immediate difference, even if he gets another 4 years. I think his legacy will be starting the change of direction. When big business and governments begin to see profit and purpose in his early changes, the will begin to follow the money.
Trump is only the temporary Captain of a very large ship. We guys at the back, in steerage, will see change a lot later than the priveleged few at the front of the ship.
But at least Trump has taken the helm and changed course. Something no other politician has done for generations.