Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t JoNova – South Australia, the world’s renewable energy crash test dummy, has just encountered a new problem; “climate” has caused their wind power to collapse.
Lack of wind blows out South Australia power costs
12:00AM July 4, 2017
MATT CHAMBERS
Resources reporter
The slowest wind conditions on record in some places of South Australia have slashed east coast wind generation in the June quarter, pushing up electricity prices, cutting wind farm profits and spurring concerns about future energy market planning.
The trend, spurred by unusually high pressure systems in the Great Australian Bight that are becoming more prevalent as the globe warms, is forecast to continue in July and August, the weather bureau says.
The so-called wind drought has meant National Electricity Market wind generation in the June quarter, the first quarter after this year’s closure of the Hazelwood brown coal-fired power station, was its lowest in five years, despite rapid growth in the number of wind turbines.
…
Darren Ray, a senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the low winds had been caused by a high pressure system over the Bight.
While this had eased, and wind had picked up, it was expected to return.
“Modelling of weather patterns is keeping the high pressure systems a bit stronger than average, with lower than average winds, over July and August,” he said, adding it was probably not going to be as extreme as June.
Global warming was making the high pressure systems more common.
“There is a long-term trend linking it (high pressure systems in the Bight) to climate change,” Mr Ray said.
“The tropics expand as the planet warms and that sees high pressure systems staying throughout the south longer than they used to.”
…
Read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-24/lack-of-wind-a-big-blow-for-infigin-and-consumers/8646894
As JoNova points out, the current Bureau of Meteorology analysis contrasts with yesterminute’s modelling which indicated climate change would produce stronger winds, more violent weather systems – for exactly the same reason.
Climate change ‘blowing in’ stronger winds, CSIRO finds
AMOS AIKMAN
12:00AM September 22, 2011
WIND speeds in Australia have increased by about 14 per cent over the past two decades, but you may not have noticed because the speed of the air just above the ground has actually slowed down.
CSIRO scientists analysing data collected since 1975 at numerous wind stations around the country found the average speed measured 10m above the ground had increased by about 0.7 per cent per year, whereas that measured 2m above the ground had slowed by about 0.4 per cent per year over the same period.
Moreover, they found that the weakest winds had increased in speed but the fastest and strongest winds increased more slowly by comparison — good news for wind-farm developers but potentially bad news for farmers.
Alberto Troccoli, head of the CSIRO’s Weather and Energy Research Unit, said the difference between the measure at 2m and 10m was due to the lower stations being shielded by obstacles such as trees and buildings, and that the higher station provided the more accurate measure.
“We think the overall increase is caused by the widening of the tropical belt, due to climate change,” he said.
…
A skeptic might suggest that Aussie climatologists are just making it up as they go, that they haven’t got a clue what is really happening to the climate. But I’m sure this can’t be the case; after all, the science is settled.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Always remember – whatever happens in the weather today is due to climate change (and human-induced climate change to be more specific).
Unless it’s colder, in which case it’s only weather. Only if it’s warmer is it evidence of climate change. All other measurements (wind speed. precipitation, etc.) support climate change regardless of which direction they are going.
As of 1 Jan this year, our solar feed-in payment dropped to 6 cents/kwh. How many large solar projects would be viable at this rate?
Answer: An unlimited amount of new capacity….from the sector leaders. We never get to that kind of open market bidding because of protectionist, demonstration project, local content rules, lobbyist, special interest world.
Here is a hint, kids, wind mills can’t heat your homes or run your hospitals when the wind don’t blow. What can heat your homes and run your hospitals when the wind don’t blow? Coal. Nuclear. Hydro.
That nuclear power is not allowed in Australia, mate. Besides, nuclear power plants bankrupt the populace. And things won’t grow right after they go BOOM…
Roger
You mean in the way that nothing at all is growing in the astonishingly abundant green wildlife paradise around Chernobyl?
First, they don’t go boom. Second, the people of Australia have the God given authority to physically remove their enemies from government positions. This sh*t keeps up and we will see it happen, free people do not simply sit down in the mud to die. They fight back, and when their “political” system fails them physical violence is the only avenue left to them.
“Roger Sowell July 7, 2017 at 12:34 pm
Besides, nuclear power plants bankrupt the populace.”
Rubbish! The plants are not the cause. The cause is the legal and environmental processes that has to be followed to even get the first sod of earth turned. But it’s not only nuclear that is costly, read this;
http://www.news.com.au/finance/small-business/huge-gas-bill-increases-prompt-drastic-action/news-story/04db2606c3e48725c6a8f11864a1eefe
This is our future in Australia thanks to lawyers, politicians and the climate change scare.
Patrick MJD says: ” Rubbish!”
…
Can Patrick explain why the French nuclear power industry is deeply in debt?
Add that to the running tally of climate firsts and impacts. The headline writers will lap it up.
Maybe the wind power is hiding in the oceans?
For every high pressure system there has to be a low pressure system.
Unless we are adding more atmosphere.
I always thought they came in pairs, or in series (high, low, high, low).
As far as I can tell, there are neither more or less high/low pressure systems around now than in the past.
Wind power so so very reliable./sarc
It has very reliably failed to pay for itself, there is at least that!
Reliably unreliable! (Try saying that four times fast.)
Donuts – Is there anything they can’t do
~ Homer J. Simpson
Models – Is there anything they can’t do
~ BOM
Here’s the June picture in a graph bearing in mind last year those wind farms produced on average 34% of installed capacity-
http://anero.id/energy/wind-energy/2017/june
You can see how the wind farm operators are moaning from a comparison with May-
http://anero.id/energy/wind-energy/2017/may
but note that low week in May in particular and what it says about wind despatchability and what sort of storage capacity you’d need to capture those peak outputs and guarantee an overall average output during those low periods. Electrochemical storage at that scale is the stuff of science fiction or smoking something you shouldn’t, which largely leaves pumped hydro in the driest State in the driest continent.
So that only leaves any mountains reasonably near the sea and Oz being an ancient weathered continent poor old South Oz only has what real mountain men would call hillocks so here’s one aspirant for pumped hydro picking the best spot they can find along our Gulf-
https://www.energyaustralia.com.au/about-us/media/news/consortium-assessing-pumped-hydro-storage-plant-south-australia
Yeah 300 metres of lift and 100MW of storage for 6-8 hours and we’re supposed to be jumping for joy our Green overlords have it all under control.
Meanwhile back at Green central the brains trust have a cunning plan-
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/06/sa-govt-to-spend-100m-on-diesel-generators-but-could-have-spent-8m-keeping-coal-plant-instead/
“the current Bureau of Meteorology analysis contrasts with yesterminute’s modelling which indicated climate change would produce stronger winds, more violent weather systems – for exactly the same reason”
Same here in Toronto, Canada: we had a wet spring, and the Great Lakes are rather full, so we’ve had some localized flooding. Damn climate change! More precipitation is the “new normal”. The models say so.
Except that…only a few years ago, we had a dry spring, and the very same climate models were used to show that we would get LESS precipitation. THAT was the new normal.
Can’t wait for next spring, which will either be wetter, or drier, or average, all due to climate change.
I guess using “climate change” and dumping that whole warming thing does allow one to blame every outcome on climate change (unless the climate actually stopped changing) no matter what it is. If one ignores all previous models and projections and just goes with what the weather is doing at this moment in time, it is a perfect plan. Everything is due to climate change. Of course, that also takes humans out of it, so there could be down side.
Indeed. This case here is rather amazing, though: models said there would be more wind, so build the turbines right….THERE! Oh, no wind? Well, the models say there will be less wind, of course. So build solar right…THERE!
Seriously, I’d be looking for a guy selling a monorail.
And someone has started a small list. Its a few years old, no doubt its a bit bigger now:
http://numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
I think Ogdenville has one they will make a sweet deal on!
Caligula Jones: From what I have read, in some places no one cared if enough wind blew or not. Contracts and handouts were the goal, not making electricity. So up went the turbines.
(I live where “the wind always blows”. It’s 90 degrees F and there is a 3 to 6 mph wind. Not a turbine anywhere that I can see turning. I’m not sure if the models show the wind “always” blows here, but it does not. Especially when it’s hot and everyone has their A/C on and is using massive quantities of electricity. You know, when we don’t need electricity……)
All my life I’ve been told that Australians were down-to-earth matter-of-fact nondeferential pragmatists. What happened?
Like so many in the noble interest of equality of opportunity, we flung open the doors of our Sandstones to ever more weak minds and created new concrete ones to cope with the influx, around about the time exponential computing power was on the runway taking off for the stratosphere and it proved to be a lethal mix for real science and rational enquiry. Aided and abetted by statistical computer packages we witnessed an outpouring of the most marginal junk science the world has ever seen and climatology is no exception. In fact climatology is a typical bastard child of such a conjugation and there are no high priests left to exorcise it and so many others like it now-
Watch the video and I rest my case-
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/possible-rainfall-up-to-70mm-forecast-for-adelaide-mount-lofty-ranges-by-the-end-of-monday/news-story/e83faa9e6fe4cfed3712d1037dac36e5
if it changes like the weather check it out here-
http://www.news.com.au/video/id-5348771529001-5491661226001/weather-forecasting-set-to-be-revolutionised
Winds going faster or slower were also 2 of the reasons given for the “pause” in warming between 1997 and 2015. England et al 2014 said it was due to faster trade winds; Vecchi et al 2006 said it was slower trade winds. See reasons 8 and 25 in this list of 64 (updated to 66) reasons for the pause.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.es/2014/11/updated-list-of-64-excuses-for-18-26.html
It seems our Green overlords are doubling down with these unreliables and no prizes for guessing who is hanging around the taxpayer honeypot-
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/sa-government-announces-who-will-build-100mw-giant-battery-as-part-of-its-energy-security-plan/news-story/9f83072547f41f4f5556477942168dd9
Given up on the 100MW 6-8 hours worth of pumped hydro perhaps but no mention of the number of hours of storage the giant battery will be able to supply.
Watermelon economics 101: If at first you don’t succeed try try again with someone else’s money-
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-25/solar-umuwa-apy-lands-sun-farm/2808796
Do I detect a note of skepticism?? “A skeptic might suggest that [Aussie] climatologists are just making it up as they go, that they haven’t got a clue what is really happening to the climate. But I’m sure this can’t be the case; after all, the science is settled.” Lol
Ask Piers Corbyn of Weatheraction.com fame…
It is impossible to concentrate huge amounts of power for potential electricity generation, without significant danger of explosion 💥, fire 🔥 or other threats to life and limb.
The dangers of nuclear (much exaggerated by Khmer Vert Luddites) are as nothing compared to the minefield of incendiary hazards that will soon proliferate across landscapes as the fantasies of the Green Reich are rolled out in subservient nations. Sadly there will be a growing toll of fatal catastrophes from grid storage (that CNN will decorate with flowers and ear-to-ear monkey-grins).
To me, the interesting thing about solar is that the more efficient it gets, the more and more solar energy will be captured, and NOT reflected back into space. It will be converted indirectly to work and be dissipated as heat. Result of less reflected light – by definition – lower albedo – hence warmer earth. You can readily see this at work by considering a black asphalt road vs a white concrete road. And a solar collector is much more effective than a blacktop – and that heat is staying down here.
Lee
It’s called making work for yourself.
More solar panels = less albedo = more global warming = we need even more solar panels = etc. etc.
Solar panels are acting as self-multiplying automatons, or Von Neumann robots.
I will travel to Australia on business in a week’s time (Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide) so I’ll get a chance to find out how delighted Australians are with their politicised electricity.
Musk and Weatherill the smokescreen for diesel-
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/under-treasurer-david-reynolds-confirms-backup-generators-as-part-of-state-governments-energy-plan-will-cost-110m/news-story/873fa29923a6b15c0ac0a26bb21ed245