Another Manntastic Claim: "scientists live by a covenant"

Had a bit of insomnia tonight (from falling asleep early), and this popped up in my message stream on Facebook. I didn’t expect to post again so soon, but his deserved airing.

Michael Mann:

There’s a big asymmetry in the public conversation. Scientists live by a covenant to be truthful, to be skeptical in an honest way, stating the caveats and uncertainties, and yet we’re often in battle with climate change deniers who don’t play by those rules.

See Noble Cause Corruption:

Noble cause corruption is corruption caused by the adherence to a teleological ethical system, suggesting that people will use unethical or illegal means to attain desirable goals, a result which appears to benefit the greater good. Where traditional corruption is defined by personal gain, noble cause corruptions forms when someone is convinced of their righteousness, and will do anything within their powers to achieve the desired result. An example of noble cause corruption is police misconduct “committed in the name of good ends” or neglect of due process through “a moral commitment to make the world a safer place to live.”

See also: Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

Abstract

There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.

See also “climategate”

From: Phil Jones. Nov 16, 1999

“I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature [the science journal] trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie, from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.”

From Phil Jones To: Michael Mann (Pennsylvania State University). July 8, 2004

I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow — even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!”

From Phil Jones. To: Michael Mann. Date: May 29, 2008

“Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise.”

From: Michael Mann. To: Phil Jones and Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh). Date: Aug 10, 2004

Phil and I are likely to have to respond to more crap criticisms from the idiots in the near future.”

Yes there is a “covenant” among climate scientists for certain, it’s just not the same covenant Dr. Mann thinks it is.

 

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oebele bruinsma

Well, he lives still in his never changing “climate”; anyway his court case against Dr. Tim Ball is apparently in decline.

gnomish

break him and you break the notochord of the parisites & it’s over quickly.
stick it to the man, dr tim! boot to the head!

Bryan A

There’s a big asymmetry in the public conversation.

There’s a big ass in the public conversation.
Fixed that one too

Man Bearpig

Yeah, I think he is trying to save something before it all breaks. Was there any truth in the article the other day about the case. Cant find anything to corroborate it.

dickon66

I believe it is true, insofar as it is reporting on further developments in the case. The conclusion that it is all over bar the shouting may be slightly premature, but a likely prediction of an outcome that is still some way away.

Vince
Moa

That’s be the same as Obama being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize before he’d done anything, right ?
As if the acclaims that Leftists award to other Leftists are worth anything !

Michael of Oz

You see Jay Z got a platinum record plaque from his label before his record was even released digitally…just consider that for a moment, he got a plaque for sales that didn’t happen, of a recording, that doesn’t physically exist.

tetris

You mean Schneider as in identity theft using the Heartland?
Great case of communication duplicity and “disinformazia”, all in the name of the end justifies the means..

PiperPaul

An award in climate communication? What is ‘climate communication’, anyway?

Tetris … No, you’re thinking of Peter Gleik, who stole documents from Heartland, and forged one of them.
Stephen Schneider is the one who said that climatologists would have to choose between being honest or being pursuasive … or something close to that.

John Morrison

Typical idiot argument. Accuse your opponent of doing what you are doing. Therefore, your lying cannot be ethically worse than his opponents. Plus, you know your right the so the ends justifies the means.

Auto

Don’t feed the troll.
Auto

Jeremy McManus

Auto – A troll being anyone who disagrees with you? It’s fitting that you, as a denier, think this way.

M Seward

The assertion that Michael Mann is a scientist would have to be the new gold standard for an oxymoron. It certainly makes military intelligence seem a fairly banal and honest descriptive term.
“Mike Nature Trick” eh? Now that’s a covenant all right – with Satan himself.

noaaprogrammer

Yeah, the occult convene in covens.

Shawn Marshall

Do we not sometimes wonder if perhaps Michael Mann is just stupid? Smart enough to test through but really lacking comprehension?

M Seward

I don’t think he is that stupid, just self delusional. I think a lot if not most of the younger crop of ‘climate scientists’ * are actually driven by a narcissism and a desire to be seen as ‘heroes’ which utterly distorts their grip on reality such that a fiddle here and a tickle there seems, well reasonable speculation cos it might help save the world.
We had a Federal Court judge in Oz tell a po faced lie a few years ago about a speeding infringement on the highway leading to the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Denied he was driving, blamed a woman from the US who had borrowed his car. Trouble was she had passed away well before the incident. It was crazy. The fine was a few hundred $ at most and he ended up doing years behind bars for his lies and because of who he was. The point being that even the mighty and high achievers can tell utter lies for even quite petty reasons driven by ego and a brain fart.
* I actually miss typed this first up as ‘slimate scientists’ which readily becomes ‘slimate clientists’. Isn’t that just a perfect description of Mann and co? well in my opinion it is. (settle down moderator, probably defamatory but honest opinion. 🙂 )

Mann has been at this for a long time. He gets paid for his position on the climate question so he must continue the current meme no matter what. The left has a record of modifying history to control the future (“1984”).

Phoenix44

That is perhaps the most extraordinary statement I have ever seen from a climate scientist!
All us “Deniers” want is a bit of scepticism, combined with an acknowledgement that there is plenty we do not know..
Yet I have never seen a single climate scientist admit that ANY paper or statement produced or made by another climate scientist is anything other than the perfect truth, or that our knowledge is anything less than sufficient to radically change our economies.
Sadly I suspect Mann actually believes himself.

RockyRoad

Michael Mann has a demonstrable mental disorder. Who else would lie to themselves and believe it so thoroughly?

Tim

Have you heard of the term: ‘Controlled Asset’ ?

Doug

OJ comes to mind, but there is a book called Elephant in the Brain…I think which touches on this subject.
There was a study where they had people go into a room individually. Then someone would hold up a sign that would ask them to leave the room. Upon interviewing these people on why they left the room most people said a person was holding a sign that read to leave the room. BUT there was a group of people that had all different kinds of answers like I needed to run to another appointment, had to go to the bathroom….

Leo Smith

Most wives and girlfriends?

John Morrison

Not a mental disorder. It is a money disorder. Greed is behind this charade.

commieBob

Doug July 6, 2017 at 8:11 am
… there was a group of people that had all different kinds of answers like I needed to run to another appointment, had to go to the bathroom….

People will always have a reason why they did something. It could be made up. That’s called confabulation. Most of the time when we think we’re being reasonable, we’re just kidding ourselves … literally. link

“Yet I have never seen a single climate scientist admit that ANY paper or statement produced or made by another climate scientist is anything other than the perfect truth, or that our knowledge is anything less than sufficient to radically change our economies.”
I don’t believe this is true. I have seen many climate scientists express doubts. However, empty barrels make the most noise. About ten or fifteen climate scientists are most often heard from in the public and these “scientists” rarely express doubts. When they do, it is usually, “we are being conservative.”

Geologist Down The Pub

I am a life-long scientist, and I teach a course on the scientific method and critical thinking. Workers such as Mann, who distort their data to support a predetermined conclusion, should be driven out of the field. Environmentalism, which includes much current “climate” thinking, has done major and perhaps permanent harm to the field of Science. It makes me very sad.

Alastair Brickell

Geologist Down The Pub July 6, 2017 at 4:15 am
Yes, you’re quite right. It’s going to take decades or longer for the reputation of science, the scientific method and proper scientists to recover from this monumental planet wide scam.

Richard

They lie “for a good cause”, and that’s supposed to excuse them.

Scott

The definition of “Noble Cause Corruption”. +100

Roger Knights

aka “advocacy research”

Louis Hooffstetter

+100

I think taking critical thinking courses should be MANDATORY in both public schools and universities, especially in science degrees.

jorgekafkazar

Yes, students should be taught logic and the difference between syllogisms and propaganda and how to recognize fallacies. I met a chap who claimed he taught “critical thinking” at a school. Unfortunately, he was unable to recognize the many fallacies that AGW is based on. I concluded that he was probably teaching his students WHAT to think, rather than HOW to think, indoctrination instead of lecture.

Not sure about dedicated courses for “critical thinking.” Instead, critical thinking should pervade all teaching.

gnomish

kids need to know how to think before they are pushed into moloch’s maw .
and it won’t happen until parents take their own responsibilities seriously and stop delivering their own offspring into the hands of cultists.

John in Oz

From http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/university-students-are-not-learning-analytical-thinking-skills-becoming-like-donald-trump/news-story/44d56cfe61f216ab81059a28511ec675

Dr Sandra Egege said her review of US and Australian research showed students were not picking up critical thinking skills in their studies, so universities needed to teach them more explicitly.
Dr Egege said university graduates had no better reasoning ability than high school graduates — particularly worrying given high schoolers were becoming less literate — and there was no difference across degree programs.
“We are so focused on teaching students the content of a subject that we are not giving them the skills to think logically and analytically about that subject,” she said.
“Students are in danger of thinking like (US President) Trump — they don’t think critically — they like to jump to conclusions based on fake news and opinion.

PiperPaul

People take Critical Theory classes and think they are learning critical thinking. There’s just a little bit of a difference there…comment image

drednicolson

For leftivists in academia, you think critically when you think the “correct” thoughts.

Thomas

Noble cause corruption is an oxymoron. Corruption is just corruption and it is never “noble.”
Corruption is; “dishonest or fraudulent conduct by those in power, typically involving bribery.” Fraud is; “wrongful or criminal deception intended to result in financial or personal gain.”
One cannot be both noble and fraudulent at the same time on the same subject.

Paul Penrose

Thomas,
It is the cause that is noble, not the person.

tetris

Geologist Down the Pub
I share your concerns but see an even bigger danger. “Environmentalism” and its pseudo scientific preaching led hand in hand by ever more pervasive political correctness, is opening up something far more ominous: a deliberate movement aimed at re-introducing a mindset and social discourse where emotion and fact, belief and rational analysis – are treated as equals – as in pre-Renaissance and pre-Enlightenment days. Reality is that we today have one full generation – the so called 25-35 year old Millennials – who have heard not other than the CAGW/CACC dogma in one form or another since kinder garden, studiously shielded at school / university and by the various MSM from hearing the skeptic side of the story.
My eldest and youngest sons are both engineers. The eldest is 42 [Gen X ] and the youngest 32 [Millennial]. Both got my consistently skeptical take on the CAGW/CACC dogma for 20+ years – today the youngest needs to be reminded he’s an engineer after all and that facts and “believing” are polar opposites, while the eldest has been clear in his understanding that ” the physics don’t work, where’s the empirical evidence and what’s left of the CAGW story when you control for the politics?” for a long time..

M E Emberson

Dis you come across this in your teaching? Dorothy L Sayers on “The Lost Tools of Learning” .
http://www.gbt.org/text/sayers.html
“…. if we are to produce a society of educated people, fitted to preserve their intellectual freedom amid the complex pressures of our modern society, we must turn back the wheel of progress some four or five hundred years, to the point at which education began to lose sight of its true object, towards the end of the Middle Ages.”
The syllabus was divided into two parts: the Trivium and Quadrivium. The second part–the Quadrivium–consisted of “subjects,” and need not for the moment concern us. The interesting thing for us is the composition of the Trivium, which preceded the Quadrivium and was the preliminary discipline for it. It consisted of three parts: Grammar, Dialectic, and Rhetoric, in that order…..etc”
….
Very useful reading for all who teach in this century and were taught in the last century after WWII.
A pleasant read for those on holiday in the Northern hemisphere

Quilter52

I am trained in statistics and the one thing I learned long ago from a great University lecturer is that statistics can be abused as well as used. Mann is very good at the abuse and we need to call it out wherever we see it not just in climatology but in government where stats re used to justify the most incredible rubbish. Steve McKittrick did us a great favour in identifying the flaws in Mann’s work and Mann is now largely discredited but our politicians, most of whom are utterly scientifically and mathematically illiterate, still go along with all this nonsense, while passing laws that rightly prosecute businesses that behave badly for deceptive and misleading conduct. I would love to see our Consumer laws applied to the dodgy scientists who have cost us so much money and wasted resources for nothing that I can see.
I just want us all to recognise that science is a process of testing knowledge and building on solid foundations whereas climate science is at best just another religio, based on the evidence I have seen.

Geoff Sherrington

Quilter
It is polite to at least get names correct.
You might be thinking of Ross McKittrick and Steve McIntyre.
It is not good enough to mention their names when you blog.
They did a large body of work.
Please quote, with references where possible, the part of that work you are using to make your point.
Thanks. Geoff.

Geoff Sherrington

And for those more thorough with data, please note that the correct spelling of McKitrick has not been picked up yet by bloggers here. Some hours have passed. Testing.
Geoff

AleaJactaEst

statistics, as a notable wag once said, is like a bikini. The stuff it covers is more important than the stuff it shows .

Jer0me

That is the best quote about statistics I’ve ever heard. Thank you! 🙂

Paul Penrose

Ha ha ha! I’ll have to remember that one.

Maybe a covenant of fraudsters…

Penn State scientist threatens legal action over Sandusky comparison
By ANDREW RESTUCCIA | 7/23/12 2:01 PM EDT
Penn State University global warming researcher Michael Mann is lawyering up to counter attacks by conservatives who have referred to him as the “Jerry Sandusky of climate science.”
Mann’s lawyer wrote Friday to National Review Executive Publisher Scott Budd demanding a retraction and apology for a July 15 blog post that compares Penn State’s mishandling of years of child sexual abuse to the university’s investigation of “Climategate.”
[…]
The National Review Online post quoted from a now-deleted line by CEI’s Rand Simberg, who wrote: “Mann could be said to be the Jerry Sandusky of climate science, except that instead of molesting children, he has molested and tortured data in the service of politicized science that could have dire economic consequences for the nation and planet.”
CEI later removed the line and added an editor’s note that said, “Two inappropriate sentences that originally appeared in this post have been removed by the editor.”
[…]
Simberg, in an email to POLITICO, said his Sandusky comparison “was to the fact that the Penn State administration covered up Mann’s behavior in a similar manner, not in the behavior itself,” adding, “neither I or anyone was accusing [Mann] of child molestation.”
Mann will have a difficult time winning any future lawsuit because he “has already made himself a public figure” and “neither I, nor Mark Steyn or anyone else have written anything actionable or false, as far as I know,” Simberg said.
“I think he’s just blowing smoke in hopes of getting a cheap ‘apology.’ I guess if he does decide to come after me, I’ll crowd source a legal defense fund, or find someone to take it on pro bono. I suspect I’ll have no shortage of support,” Simberg said, stressing that he is speaking for himself and not CEI
[…]
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78852_Page2.html#ixzz21YALzcBe

The Penn State whitewash was ludicrous…

After careful consideration of all the evidence and relevant materials, the inquiry committee finding is that there exists no credible evidence that Dr. Mann had or has ever engaged in, or participated in, directly or indirectly, any actions with an intent to suppress or to falsify data.

There’s no evidence that Mann intended to suppress or falsify inconvenient data. OK. I’ll buy that. It can’t be proven that he intended to suppress or falsify inconvenient data. It’s entirely possible that he accidentally devised a method to suppress or falsify inconvenient data.
This bit here was laughable…

In fact to the contrary, in instances that have been focused upon by some as indicating falsification of data, for example in the use of a “trick” to manipulate the data, this is explained as a discussion among Dr. Jones and others including Dr. Mann about how best to put together a graph for a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report. They were not falsifying data; they were trying to construct an understandable graph for those who were not experts in the field. The so-called “trick”1 was nothing more than a statistical method used to bring two or more different kinds of data sets together in a legitimate fashion by a technique that has been reviewed by a broad array of peers in the field. 

The most benign possible interpretation of the “trick” is that they edited part of Briffa’s reconstruction because the tree ring chronology showed that the 1930s to early 1940′s were warmer than the late 1990′s. So, they just substituted the instrumental record for the tree ring chronology.
I suppose that there is no evidence that Mann did this with intent to deceive… However, when he advised Phil Jones to employ that same method on Keith Briffa’s inconvenient reconstruction, he was intentionally acting to suppress or falsify inconvenient data. The fact that they called it “Mike’s nature trick” sure makes it seem like this sort of thing was SOP.
Taking a set of data that shows that the 1930′s were warmer than the 1990′s and using another data set to reverse that relationship is not bringing “two or more different kinds of data sets together in a legitimate fashion.” It’s a total bastardization of the data.
To see an example of “Mike’s Nature Trick,” go here… Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia 
Click this… EIV Temperature Reconstructions
Open up any of the **cru_eiv_composite.csv or **had_eiv_composite.csv files. All of them splice the high frequency instrumental data into the low frequency proxy data. To Mann’s credit, unlike his previous “tricks,” he at least documents this one enough to sort it out.
This statement from their PNAS paper is totally unsupported by proxy reconstructions… “Recent warmth appears anomalous for at least the past 1,300 years whether or not tree-ring data are used. If tree-ring data are used, the conclusion can be extended to at least the past 1,700 years.”
The anomalous nature of the “recent warmth” is entirely dependent on the “tricky” use of the instrumental data. He didn’t use any proxy data post-1855.
This image from Mann’s 2008 paper falsely implies that all of the reconstructions are in general agreement regarding the claim that the “recent warmth appears anomalous for at least the past 1,300 years”…

By cluttering up the image with many reconstructions and plastering the instrumental record onto end of the graph, it’s impossible to see any details.
Here are Mann (Had_EIV), Moberg and Ljungqvist without the clutter…

Zoomed in on post-1800…

And Mike’s Nature Trick…

The Modern Warming appears anomalous because of the higher resolution of the instrumental record, its position at the tail-end of the time series and the negative deflection of the Little Ice Age trough (ca 1600 AD)…

If the Modern Warming is directly compared to the Medieval Warm Period, it appears to be far less anomalous, despite ithe better resolution of the instrumental record…

Particularly if you clutter the image with multiple reconstructions…

The Modern Warming might be 0.2-0.4°C warmer than the Medieval Warm Period. This would be consistent with a climate sensitivity of 0.5-1.0°C per doubling of the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 level (the Gorebots say the sensitivity is ~3°C). Although the difference between the MW and MWP is well within the margins of error of the proxy and instrumental reconstructions and could easily be explained by the higher resolution of the instrumental record.

References:
Ljungqvist, F.C. 2010.
A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia.
Geografiska Annaler: Physical Geography, Vol. 92 A(3), pp. 339-351, September 2010. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-459.2010.00399.x
Mann, M.E., Z. Zhang, M.K. Hughes, R.S. Bradley, S.K. Miller, S. Rutherford, and F. Ni. 2008.
Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 105, No. 36, September 9, 2008. doi:10.1073/pnas.0805721105
Moberg, A., D.M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N.M. Datsenko and W. Karlén. 2005.
Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data.
Nature, Vol. 433, No. 7026, pp. 613-617, 10 February 2005.
Instrumental Data from Hadley Centre / UEA CRU via Wood for Trees

The NOAA OIG “found eight emails which… warranted further examination to clarify any possible issues involving the scientific integrity of particular NOAA scientists or NOAA’s data.” Most of the 1,073 emails reviewed by NOAA’s OIG did not involve “NOAA scientists or NOAA’s data.”
This is from the OIG’s actual report

[…]
In our own review of all 1,073 CRU emails, we found eight emails which, in our judgment, warranted further examination to clarify any possible issues involving the scientific integrity of particular NOAA scientists or NOAA’s data. As a result, we conducted interviews with the relevant NOAA scientists regarding these eight emails, and have summarized their responses and explanations in the enclosure.
In addition to the foregoing, we also found two other emails that raised questions, one regarding a 2002 contract NOAA awarded to the CRU, and the second involving actions on the part of two NOAA scientists in 2007.
[…]
As detailed in the enclosure, we recommend that NOAA examine the CRU contract issues implicated by the one email and provide the results to us.
[…]
[T]he CRU emails referenced a specific IPCC-related FOIA request received and responded to by NOAA in June 2007 that led to our further examination of how those FOIA requests were handled. We determined that, at the time, NOAA did not conduct a proper search for responsive documents as required under FOIA, and, as a result, did not have a sufficient basis to inform the requesters that it had no responsive documents. Given that federal agencies are legally obligated to publicly disclose records under the terms of FOIA, we recommend that NOAA conduct a proper search for responsive records as required by the FOIA, and reassess its response to the four FOIA requests in question, as appropriate. Additionally, based on the issues we identified in NOAA’s handling of these particular FOIA requests, NOAA should consider whether these issues warrant an overall assessment of the sufficiency of its FOIA process.
[…] 

The FOIA is particularly troublesome. NOAA claims that work they do related to the IPCC is not subject to FOIA and that they do not have to respond to FOIA requests related to IPCC-related work. NOAA informed the OIG that they made that determination based on legal counsel. The career attorneys, NOAA claims provided the advice, say that they were never asked for such advice and there is no record of NOAA receiving such advice…

Thwarting FOIA 
“The Co-Chair of the IPCC AR4 WG1, who was the only NOAA scientist informed of any of the aforementioned FOIA requests, told us that she did not conduct a ‘comprehensive search’ for and forward potentially responsive documents for agency processing. This was based, in part, on her understanding that her IPCC-related work product was the property of the IPCC, due to the confidentiality provisions contained in many of the documents. In addition, she reportedly received verbal guidance from her supervisor and a NOAA OGC attorney that the IPCC-related documents she had created and/or obtained while on “detail” assignment to the IPCC did not constitute NOAA records.” [Emphasis added]
“We interviewed the two NOAA OGC attorneys whom the Co-Chair and her supervisor referenced during their interviews with us to determine what, if any, advice the attorneys provided to these individuals. Both attorneys specifically told us that they had not advised the Co-Chair or her supervisor on this matter at the time NOAA received the FOIA requests referenced herein. One attorney said that he never spoke to the Co-Chair about that issue, while the second attorney told us that he was consulted only after NOAA had already responded to the FOIA requesters that it had no responsive documents.” [Emphasis added]
“Based on our interviews of the two NOAA OGC attorneys, we followed-up with the Co-Chair and her supervisor, both of whom again told us that their handling of the aforementioned FOIA requests was based on advice they had received from these two specific attorneys. We requested from the Co-Chair and her supervisor documentation of any discussions with the NOAA OGC attorneys on this matter, which they were unable to provide. As such, we were unable to reconcile the divergent accounts.” [Emphasis added]
WUWT
FOIA includes provisions as to what constitutes an “agency record.” Under FOIA, an agency must exert sufficient control over the requested documents to render them “agency records” such as would be subject to disclosure. To qualify as agency records, documents must be created or obtained by the agency and under its control at the time the FOIA request is made.23 The Co-Chair informed us that the IPCC process was governed by an implicit policy of confidentiality with respect to, for example, the pre-decisional correspondences of its members. We examined IPCC-related records in the possession of NOAA employees, some of which contained the directive “Do Not Cite or Quote,” and others of which had “Confidential. Do Not Cite or Quote.” However, none of the NOAA employees with whom we spoke who participated in the IPCC AR4 recalled explicit IPCC policies or procedures pertaining to the confidentiality of the material produced as part of the assessment process. Absent such an unambiguous directive, in our view, the IPCC did not demonstrate a clear intent to retain control over the records created or obtained by NOAA employees.24
OIG Report, Page 18

One of the “eight emails which… warranted further examination to clarify any possible issues involving the scientific integrity”…

CRU email #1140039406. This email, dated February 15,2006, documented exchanges between several climate scientists, including the Deputy Director of CRU, related to their contributions to chapter six ofthe IPCC AR4. In one such exchange, the Deputy Director of CRU warned his colleagues not to “let [the Co-Chair of AR4 WGl] (or [a researcher at Pennsylvania State University]) push you (us) beyond where we know is right” in terms of stating in the AR4 “conclusions beyond what we can securely justify.” 

The CRU’s Keith Briffa was warning his colleagues to not allow NOAA’s Susan Solomon or Penn State’s Michael “Hockey Stick” Mann to coerce them into going along with unsupportable conclusions. This particular e-mail exchange dealt extensively with paleoclimate reconstructions. Briffa also urged his colleagues not to “attack” Anders Moberg, who had recently published a climate reconstruction which actually honored the data and used proper signal processing methods.
Susan Solomon is the NOAA official who claimed that NOAA work related to the IPCC was not subject to FOIA.
Michael Mann was the lead author of the thoroughly debunked original Hockey Stick.
Keith Briffa was the lead author of one of the problematic reconstructions in which “Mike’s Nature Trick” was employed to “hide the decline.”

Latitude

David…
EXCLUSIVE: Study Finds Temperature Adjustments Account For ‘Nearly All Of The Warming’ In Climate Data
“The conclusive findings of this research are that the three [global average surface temperature] data sets are not a valid representation of reality,” the study found. “In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data.”
http://dailycaller.com/2017/07/05/exclusive-study-finds-temperature-adjustments-account-for-nearly-all-of-the-warming-in-climate-data/

Latitude

June 2017
On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data
&
The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/ef-gast-data-research-report-062717.pdf

This is a common thread throughout climate science. The anomalous (fill in the blank: warming, ice loss, sea level rise, etc.) is usually comparable to or less than the adjustments to the raw data. This doesn’t necessarily mean they’re wrong… It just puts their conclusions into proper context.

richardscourtney

David Middleton:
You say

This is a common thread throughout climate science. The anomalous (fill in the blank: warming, ice loss, sea level rise, etc.) is usually comparable to or less than the adjustments to the raw data. This doesn’t necessarily mean they’re wrong… It just puts their conclusions into proper context.

The various time series of global temperature anomaly are not wrong and they are not right: they are meaningless. For explanation of this please read this link.
Richard

tony mcleod

David Middleton
This is a common thread throughout climate science. The anomalous (fill in the blank: warming, ice loss, sea level rise, etc.) is usually comparable to or less than the adjustments to the raw data.
And this is a common thread through climate anti-science: fluffy bs based on feelings.

Jim Reedy

tony mcleod July 6, 2017 at 5:16 pm
And this is a common thread through climate anti-science: fluffy bs based on feelings.
Commentators like Tony M give me a laugh…. any sort of action by climate “scientists” is defensible in their eyes.
Publishing graphs without error bars (which would show the changes they are talking about is within
the bounds of error), not a problem, Tony will defend it.
What do you think about the climate scientists who disagree Tony, should they be run out town?
forced out of their jobs?
that’s what jokers like Mann fall back to.. cos they can not win on the “science”..
We were told all this was settled science.. how long ago now…
did you see Mann (and those of his ilk) out there saying.. Science is never settled…
What they have sown is coming back to get them
It’s fun watching it all start to fall apart for them

commieBob

It’s understandable that most of the things scientists try don’t work. The sad thing is that they are desperate to publish. The other thing is that there’s no punishment for publishing garbage.
The problem is particularly visible in drug research. Drug companies scan the published research looking for interesting results. If they find something promising, they try to replicate the original research and that’s when the wheels usually fall off.
In other fields, attempts at replication aren’t likely. The result is that bad research enters the literature and other researchers, assuming it is good, try to build off it. They engage in significance chasing* and find a result with a reasonable p value. It gets published and the whole thing becomes a morass of garbage piled on garbage.
I’m currently wading through Rigor Mortis taking notes. It’s about medical research but many of the things it uncovers also apply to climate science.
Michael Mann’s holier than thou attitude is completely at odds with the truth on the ground. There is ample evidence that science, as it is currently practiced, is bad to the point of corruption.
*The best example of how that works is a deliberately bad study on the benefits of dark chocolate. It sucked in a lot of people, me included. link

the study was 100 percent authentic. My colleagues and I recruited actual human subjects in Germany. We ran an actual clinical trial, with subjects randomly assigned to different diet regimes. And the statistically significant benefits of chocolate that we reported are based on the actual data. It was, in fact, a fairly typical study for the field of diet research. Which is to say: It was terrible science. The results are meaningless, and the health claims that the media blasted out to millions of people around the world are utterly unfounded.

commieBob July 6, 2017 at 4:31 am:
Can’t seem to get your second link to work…it just takes me back to this page.

commieBob

That makes two links I’ve messed up this morning. 🙁
dark chocolate

David Jay

My view on dark chocolate: The study may-or-may-not be flawed, but why take the RISK?

Re dark chocolate – like just about every dietary study, the benefits study is bunk.
But I happen to like dark chocolate.

Jimmy Haigh

Collective noun: A covenant of “climate scientists”.

commieBob

Do you mean ‘coven’?

Ed Zuiderwijk

An injury of climate scientists
A harmfulness …
A perfidy …
An insidiousness ….
Take your pick. Personally I’d go for he thitd one.

jorgekafkazar

Or a circularity of climate klutzes.

Bruce Cobb

Mikey’s favorite video (after successfully quashing the original one) says it all, really:

Instead of Penn State, he deserves the state pen. Oops! Now I gotta find a good lawyer.

MarkW

Either that or he’s running low on money and time.

Ed Zuiderwijk

It’s him again with the puppy-dog I-am-being-persecuted eyes. Chief of the data fiddlers.

Bubba Cow

victim-hood politics – didn’t work so well last Fall

Sigmundb

Would you buy a second hand opinion from this guy?
Unforunately yes, unless you know how harsh and aggressive he has been with people that just happens to disagree with him to a degree, not on the basic stuff at all.
I can see why Anthony just couldn’t wait for his vacation to end before he posted this. To bad the youtube channel is blocked for comments or I would have linked to Watts expsoure of his Mr. Hyde persona.

2hotel9

“Scientists live by a covenant” Yes, climate signitists do live by a covenant, it is to steal as much tax payer funded grant money as they can while lying to the very people whose money they are stealing.

Mathman

Follow the money.
That’s the covenant.
Get the Grant.
All else is secondary.

commieBob

… stated caveats and uncertainties.

Quite the opposite. In his recent testimony before the House Science Committee he said that climate science was as solid as the theory of gravity. The difference between his testimony and that of the other scientists was shocking. They were clear and honest about their own limitations and the limitations of science. I can only conclude that Dr. Mann was being less than honest or alternatively that he is seriously deluded.

as solid as the theory of gravity.
===========
scientists have no idea what causes gravity. the same can be said about climate.

rocketscientist

We think we understand the obvious effects of gravity, but have no idea how or why it works they way it does.
The theory of gravity is far from settled. 😉
I would say that Mann actually uttered a truthful statement. His story, as with all good yarns made to subvert the gullible, must include a modicum of truth.

Gerry Parker

Indeed, Mann-y climate scientists are damaging the reputation- even the idea, of all science. What will happen when science is so damaged that most people don’t believe most things published, not just climate science?

mike

Obviously bad science needs to be defunded in general, and when fraudulent like Piltdown Man, refunded and punished in the state pen.
Personally, I think Penn State should have to refund the tuition for degrees from fakers’ departments and strip fraudsters’ pensions… I know I scoff at Penn State.

Peta from Cumbria, now Newark

Got the lot ‘asn’t he.
Magical Thinking. Projection. Durning durings Krugerism
and whoever it was that said about British ‘Civil Servants’ and how, they are neither of those two things.
Then Donald stands up in Poland and declares “Western Civilisation is under threat”
Too damn right mate. Too damn right.

commieBob

Western Civilisation is under threat

I’m beginning to think it’s an own goal. link

Jer0me

Please, “too damned right” is the correct term. It’s a bit like saying “too obvious right” instead of “too obviously right” (which is correct).
I apologise for being pedantic, but this usage of ‘damn’ is damned annoying, and damned increasing.

Steve Case

Tom in Florida

Anthony, Anthony, Anthony. You cannot be rejuvenated if you keep doing this. As hard as it may seem, take your well deserved time off. We need you for the long run.

fretslider

…when someone is convinced of their righteousness, and will do anything within their powers to achieve the desired result.
Sounds just like Climate Jihad

rocketscientist

That is the definition of Zealotry. And, has been employed by irrationally charged politically motivated groups since the year 6.

SAMURAI

A Mann,
A myth,
A legendary liar….
Yes, Dr. Mann is correct in saying science is supposed to work under a strict set of ethical and scientific rules, which Mann wholeheartedly rejected in pursuit of fame and fortune…
Here is an excellent Forbes article detailing Mann’s total disregard for integrity in his data fabrication to create his now infamous “Hokey (sic) Stick” Graph:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2011/06/28/michael-mann-and-the-climategate-whitewash-part-one/#1d6ef587449a
Mann should have been fired and unemployable following his deplorable practices exposed during the Climategate Scandal, but alas, he’s still spreading lies and lectures “science deniers” on ethics.
Oh, the irony…

Pop Piasa

He dares not to drop the charade which his career has morphed into, as it leaves him destined to be ruined as a member of Academia and a figure of history. He must continue to use his words to camouflage his actions and hope that sympathetic believers will rush to his defense.

Pop Piasa

He is in a nearly identical situation to Mr Gore’s.

ozspeaksup

i read elsewhere hes refused to table data for the judge in his case..
however i couldnt get to the linked page
anyone heard similar on that???

Carbon BIgfoot

Mann has been cited for contempt in Vancouver BC Court in his libel suit against Dr. Tim Ball. Apparently he thought he could avoid providing the information, computer codes, data, etc. Mann is about to lose the suit with major repercussions for him and the climate community. The information is available on a website that WUWT won’t allow me to link. Sorry

Bubba Cow

did Mann refuse to provide his data to a court as reported ???

[snip]Mann liar I’ll play baseball [snip]
http://20.theladbiblegroup.com/s3/content/0f46a333579b3404fe6b628dba4e152d.jpg
Reply: Lest we get accused of fomenting violence~ctm

Mann vs. woman: No more baseball bat. Let’s get it on!
http://gazettereview.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/ronda-rousey.jpg

Barry Sheridan

There would be less suspicion with the conclusions of climate science research if those who were making claims laid out the data used and methodology employed to gain an understanding from that raw information. I am not a scientist but often even to a layman the statements being made by people like Mr. Mann do not appear credible.

MarkW

The so called investigation by Penn State was little more than asking Mann if he was guilty. When Mann denied the charges they closed the investigation.

2hotel9

Same as Penn State did with its investigation of Jerry Sandusky, Then real law enforcement got involved.

Liars are not stupid. Otherwise they quickly get caught. A good liar says “here is what a good person does, and I am doing it. Now in point of fact they are not doing it, but you surely don’t expect them to admit that.

Allan M R MacRae

Mann wrote:
“Scientists live by a covenant to be truthful, to be skeptical in an honest way, stating the caveats and uncertainties, and yet we’re often in battle with climate change deniers who don’t play by those rules.”
Is this Mike’s latest Nature trick?

tetris

In play- off hockey, Mann’s trademark goalie interference would get him high sticked, cross checked and boarded. And when the refs figure out he’s been cheating on his stick he’d be gone – game misconduct.
Shame those rules don’t apply in climate “science” …

Pinocchio has nothing on the mannish elf of certainty. Just look at those beady eyes and the gaping cake hole full of nonsense. Nature must have had a good giggle listening to his plaintiff cries of “science science” while he stirred up his mannic regression soup of statistical fakery.

DCA

Could this be why Mikey made the video?
Fatal Courtroom Act Ruins Michael ‘Hockey Stick’ Mann – ‘Commits contempt of court’
https://www.longroom.com/discussion/566515/fatal-courtroom-act-ruins-michael-hockey-stick-mann-commits-contempt-of-court-read-the-full-article

Nigel S

Mike ‘Indy’ Mann, Nobel Prize etc. etc. sets off in search of the lost Ark and the hokey schtick of Ra to make himself invincible (too late Mike, too late!).

Jeff

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” – Richard Feynman

KLohrn

Someone needs to ask him “Where has the climate changed?”

Change is the norm. Simply using the phrase, “climate change”, thus, turns a natural process into a dire emergency, which is a grammatical misrepresentation. At least include another adjective in there, like “dire climate change”.

Bubba Cow

making the expression “climate change” redundant

Sadly, I think that Mann sincerely believes everything he says. He is just deluded. Furthermore, he does not have a clue that his delusion appears as hypocrisy. He lies to himself, and then he projects these self lies in his words, which other people interpret as intentional lies to the public.
I don’t think that he is intentionally lying to the public. I just think that he is lying to himself, because he is delusional and closed off to the realities. He might benefit from some sort of intervention or reality therapy.
I could reach no other conclusion, as I was reading the block quote leading off this post:
There’s a big asymmetry in the public conversation. Scientists live by a covenant to be truthful, to be skeptical in an honest way, stating the caveats and uncertainties, and yet we’re often in battle with climate change deniers who don’t play by those rules.
He thinks that HE is being “truthful” ? — Yeah, by lying to himself.
He thinks that HE is being “honest” ? — Again, of course he is, BECAUSE he is honestly conveying the lies to himself.
He thinks that HE is stating the “uncertainties” ? — When has he EVER focused on the uncertainties? Maybe I missed those instances, which would mean that he must spend very little time “stating” these “uncertainties”.
That quote just blows me away, therefore. It strikes me as the words of someone who is so far gone as to be lost.

This self delusion is the most dangerous !
The Russian writer Dostoevsky had this type as his ultimate villains!

jorgekafkazar

Without going all Godwin here, I’d like to point out that Dostoevsky was onto something.

JohnWho

“There’s a big asymmetry in the public conversation. Scientists live by a covenant to be truthful, to be skeptical in an honest way, stating the caveats and uncertainties, and yet some of us “climate scientists” are often in battle with climate change deniers since we don’t play by those rules.”
Fixed it for you, Mike.

KLohrn

Don’t they have certain classifications of climate(s) in Science, is there any evidence that one of these classifications has been changed or crossed over anywhere due to “climate change / AGW”?
He’s creating a religion out of science so many who speak his English will doubt the whole of it.

paul courtney

K, my first thought, how extraordinary that a “top” scientist would use a word like “covenant” (so freighted with religious meaning) to describe an obligation to people. Then it came to me- the old testament-type covenants were a promise from God. Mann sees himself and the other members of this boy band as gods! Making “covenants” to the lowly, suffering masses yearning to avoid catastrophe. “Be devoted to me, stop worshiping that golden calf deni@r and I’ll lead you out of this man-caused desert.” Problem is, people are not listening, maybe he should try a burning bush.

Off topic: Before I forget it here’s the new CMIP6 paper set (it’s free)
http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html

David Lentz

Consider Isaac Newton’s Laws of Mechanics. Newton models observable reality far better than Mann. Yet Newton has not been described as settled, and indeed has unsettled by Albert Einstein. Who in turn has also been refuted. So why is Mann’s pet theory entitled to be accepted without question, when Newton’s and Einsein’s were not?

I Came I Saw I Left

Such is the nature of postmodern science – We are scientists so believe what we say. We don’t have to prove anything.

Gabro

IMO the jury is still out on Einstein, although at the moment, not looking good.
Einstein did however falsify Newton after 219 years as “settled science”. And not just in details, but fundamentally. Space and time aren’t absolute, as Newton imagined, but relative. Gravity doesn’t act a distance instantaneously, but only at the speed of light.

Joey

This guy is a basketcase.

If that covenant was to do no harm, everyone involved with the IPCC’s pseudo science should have their ability to practice science revoked.

Keep it simple:
It’s about the money !

ScienceABC123

What Michael Mann knows about science wouldn’t fill a thimble, and could easily fit on the head of a pin.

JBom

MEM’s entire life through high school, undergraduate, graduate, post doc, assi. prof., asso. prof. and prof. has been an exercise in “corruption caused by the adherence to a teleological ethical system” by the use of “unethical or illegal means to attain desirable goals” that benefits his teleological system called ‘Climate Science’.

jdgalt

I wish this covenant really existed so that we could enforce it on Mann.

Greg

Had a bit of insomnia tonight (from falling asleep early), and this popped up in my message stream on Facebook.

Be careful Anthony, waking up in the middle of the might to check Facebook is a sign of addiction ! 😉

Who are these “climate change deniers” he is “often in battle with”?
I’ve been on climate related sites and forums for more than a decade, and I don’t think I’ve seen even ONE person deny that the climate changes. Is he being UN-truthful or is there some caveat he’s not stating? No Mann declares his own hypocrisy more often and more passionately than this one.

The only people denying anything are those who can’t even acknowledge the controversy, blow off the constraints of first principles physics and ignore natural variability all for the purpose of supporting a political narrative.

jorgekafkazar

Socialism has a long track record of attempting to camouflage its inherent violence and illogic with the trappings of science.

I get the “in the trenches” fixation regarding Mann but the broader globalist/leftist nature of consensus climate corruption and what motivates it is simply more important then any single example.
The larger political nature of the fraud and leadership collusion will decide the social debate. It’s myth thinking taking down climate party operatives in itself will be effect the total outcome. Hockey fraud and over focus rebuttal has a deminishing return to skeptics. Technical advocacy fraud has been proven time and again, the broader debate moves independently of it. Conclusion? Taking Mann down while satisfying to deep debate insiders may (likely) have marginal impact to the broader climate war results. No one could be more absurdly wrong then Al Gore and past predictions but the broader conflict rages on. Why? It’s politics not a real science debate to begin with and skeptics pretending otherwise feed the problem.

Pamela Gray

Mann takes malevolent benevolence to new heights. He has convinced himself that ends justifies means and that he is unimpeachable because of his need to be seen as nearly alone in saving Earth. Dictators are often similarly afflicted. Everything and everybody is wrong except for what the dictator says is so and it is offered with much sincerity but with little verifiable evidence. He is so taken with his position that he does not see his own behavior as being malevolent.

And when the Earth is just fine and nothing bad happens (except the disintegration of the heart beat of civilization – our affordable and dependable energy systems) he and all his devotees will point and say – “look I saved you.”

Michael Mann
Covenant
Images stir of black shrouded worshippers circling a black altar at midnight while muttering infernal prayers.
Evidence: When has Michael Mann told the truth?

stevekeohane
Bruce Cobb

His fat head and super-sized ego balance each other well.

Mickey Reno

Wow, Michael Mann TRYING to sound like Richard Feynman. If you only believed it. Without that, it’s not a good look on you, old boy. Yes, you people claiming to be scientists DO need to be supremely skeptical of your own work, your own pet theories. NO, you personally have shown no tendency to do this. Your treatment of McIntyre and McKittrick was shameful. Your willingness to share your experimental methods and data with auditors and would-be replicators is non-existent. Instead, you write books and whine about being a victim, in the vein of a good Democratic party flack.
Mann also brought up two glaring items in his latest Congressional testimony, wherein A) he compared D E N I E R S to Lysenko. This is supremely ironic, in that Lysenko was granted wealth and long life by Stalin for lending scientific bona fides to Stalin’s pet theory (that collective farming would be better than individual farming), and thereby lent scientific sheen to misanthropic policies that ended up starving between 10 to 20 million people to death and led to the imprisonment of hundreds of thousands more in the gulags. And now, we have Mann and his buddies giving support to the end of life-enriching fossil fuels (and life-enriching CO2 emissions) with many of them (see George Mason U., RFK Jr., many others) agitating for prison terms for us. And also in Mann’s testimony, he ironically tried to discredit Roger Pielke’s (Jr.) brilliant IPCC supported extreme events testimony, by calling him a bully. Besides being a silly and stupid ad hom argument, what was Mann’s case for bullying? Roger sent an e-mail warning some of his 538 critics of possible legal action against libelous statements. He never sued anyone. But Mann is currently, actively suing many people, including Mark Steyn, Tim Ball, The National Review, etc. Talk about sophistry. Talk about hypocrisy. Goddammit but this man can bring it.