Guest essay by Eric Worrall
What do you do if your catastrophic renewables policies cause power spot price spikes up to $14,000 / MWh ($14 / KWh)? What happens when your green pride is more important than providing affordable, reliable coal power to the people whose interests you claim to represent? You double down and throw more money at useless green technology, of course.
Adelaide charges ahead with world’s largest ‘virtual power plant’
AGL project to roll out 1,000 battery systems to homes and businesses will operate like a 5MW plant, and optimise energy produced from solar panels.
Adelaide will be home to the world’s largest “virtual power plant” – AGL is rolling out 1,000 battery systems to homes and businesses, with backing from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (Arena).
AGL and Arena say the project will improve network security and dampen a volatile wholesale electricity price in South Australia. However, an energy expert says that at the current size, the system will have a minimal impact on network security or wholesale prices, but might pose a challenge to the revenues of companies that own the poles and wires.
Offered to homes and businesses with solar systems, the $20m AGL project, backed with $5m from Arena, will operate like a 5MW peaking power plant, providing power to homes and businesses during periods at optimal times.
The chief executive of AGL, Andy Vesey, told Guardian Australia: “The beauty of the project is it’s being done over 1,000 batteries, and that’s how we deliver an aggregate benefit to the grid itself.
“But for the consumer, it will have the value of the battery. And it’s being priced at a way that a good investment decision could be made. We’re viewing that the average savings for someone who has rooftop solar right now would be $500 a year. It’s really a way of optimising the energy produced out of their solar panel.”
The system will cost $3,500, and AGL estimates it will take about seven years for solar customers to recover the costs.
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Dylan McConnell, from the Melbourne Energy Institute at the University of Melbourne, said that at 5MW, the project would not have a significant impact on the the state’s reliance on gas or on the interconnector.
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The net effect of this waste of $3.5 million is minimal protection for 1000 homes or businesses, from the intermittency of unreliable renewables.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there were 459,000 households in Adelaide in 2006. Using this number implies a cost of $1.6 billion to roll this scheme out to all households – without even considered the cost of protecting industrial users, some of whom are very heavy users of energy.
What will it take to restore energy sanity to Adelaide, and the South Australian Government? All this economic damage, financial waste and energy policy posturing is happening because the greens who run the South Australian government can’t bring themselves to admit their renewables policies have failed. They can’t bring themselves to admit they cannot live without gas backup, and they most definitely cannot live without the cheap Victorian coal power at the other end of that precious interstate interconnector.

What powers Washington DC? Wind? Nope. Solar? Nope. Good ole Coal. Until we power Washington DC with these renewables, we shouldn’t force anyone else to try to make this nonsense work.
Washington DC has an excess of power.
Unfortunately it has no poles or wires.
+1776
HA, does that make Washington, DC the 2nd largest underground copper “deposit” in the world, ……. with NYC being the largest?
If you want to put a windmill on top the white house you need only move O’bummer to the roof. — Eugene WR Gallun
The NE USA runs on renewable hydro power from Québec.
Thanks for the cash.
[The Niagara Falls power plant operators may disagree with your assumed Quebec location. .mod]
The article also mentions something that has arisen here before I think – the cost of grid connection. It is all well and good for those who have been able to generate enough power not to need to draw any from the grid but as soon as they have a problem they expect the grid to come to their rescue. The generators are losing income that pays to maintain the grid so a connection fee has been suggested.
I think there’s a flaw in the logic here. “seven years to recover the cost” .. of the initial set of batteries. They do realize that these batteries aren’t going to last forever, right? What is the useful life of the batteries the consumer is purchasing?
I think there’s a good probability that they are going to have to replace those batteries before they have ‘recovered’ their cost, thus they will never ‘recover’ the costs.
The above describes the Energy Crisis of 2000 and 2001. Blame Enron all you want, but the real cause was the regulation. Anyone with a 2nd grade level of economics could have predicted what happened. The Guys at Enron simply followed the rules written by the regulators. The nit-wits deregulated only 1/2 of the market. Any fool should have understood what was going to be the result. The problem is that the liberals don’t even bother to try to understand how Free Markets work, and why should they, when things go wrong they just blame that darn FREE market.
The above is BS. No plants were shut down to game the market. For example, one of the plants my company owned was shutdown in May 2000 to upgrade from 1000 MWe to 2000 MWe using the same amount of gas by installing CCGT.
The retro fit was schedule years earlier but California has broken permitting process.
It was 106 in San Francisco, the first week in June. On paper there was 2000 MWe available. As good as were were, you can not make electricity with turbines in the crate. My company did build CCGT is Texas and Massachusetts in time to avoid rolling blackout. We were responsible for 20% of the new CCGT being built at the time.
Retired K
Thanks for that set of factlets. The real work is more complicated than any simple explanation. The doubling of output is a very impressive achievement.
That is now 13 quarters on the trot that Elon the Conman has delivered a loss.
The losses are increasing in magnitude.
I think Oh Bummer should give Elon the Conman another $5bn to waste – pronto.
For the record it is fair to point out that the power from a battery pack can be best applied to a heating load powering a heat pump, not a resistive load like, for example, a hair dryer.
Heat pumps in above freezing ambient temperatures have a return of 10:1. That is 10 KWH gives 100 KWH of heating. I feel it is a bit unfair to the system not to reflect what can be done by a careful selection of matched technologies.
Crispin –
I don’t think that is right for heating unless new heat pumps are much better. My thirteen year old 3.5 kW water to water heat pump has only a 3.5 to 4 COP – ie for every KWH of electricity, I get 3.5 to 4 KWH of heat. (Input water temperature of ~42 degrees F, output 35 to 37- extracting 5 to 7 degrees depending on flow, plus hot water supply from compressor cooling)
I notice the manufacturer’s brochures often quote a EER of 10 or a SEER of 20 but may only have a COP of 3 or 4. Good advertising and EER/SEER required information in the US, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Very different results in warm and cold conditions. Manufacturers don’t always provide all the details. Energy Star ratings do give both EER and COP.
For example this heat pump has an EER of 19.5 but a COP of 3.5. The EER is generally for cooling, the COP is for heating. Not everything is as it seems.
http://www.waterfurnace.com/products.aspx?prd=502W12
http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/heat-pump-efficiency-ratings-d_1117.html
$7,140. The 10 kilowatt-hour backup battery … puts out just 2 kilowatts of continuous power
=======================
about the same energy as a $300 gas powered generator and a couple of gallons of gasoline.
This is how the US Capital gets its power. Coal and Natural Gas is good enough for them, but not the rest of us.
Would you like a list of all the nuke plants around DC?
Let`s see, off peak solar power is stored in the batteries … at night!
The system will pay for itself in seven years!
http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/climate/sun_radiation_at_earth.html
There are physical limitations as to the amount of energy a solar panel can collect. During the day the most it can collect is around 684 W/m^2. Is that enough to power a house? How many Watts does an average house use in a day, and how much roof area is there?
As usual, things are a little more complex. In subtropics and tropics your peak can be 1,368. Not in Germany, where the sun is never directly overhead. It gets worse as you go further North.
The big leap forward: now China is ahead in science and technology and it’s efficient workers need pulverized rhinoceros horns for medical use.
For social media thei’re somewhat, say, fenced.
With Greenies you have to watch the pea. The MO is to shift costs elsewhere, onto the backs of ratepayers and taxpayers, and then pretend that those costs don’t exsist. But their dishonesty doesn’t stop there. Those who buy into their greenie schemes thinking they’ll save money, all while helping “save the planet” are being snookered as well.
This is exactly right. They justify the public investment because they say it’s good for the planet but then keep that money out of the conversation when talking about the costs. Apparently politicians lie! Who knew?
Individual home solar is a wonderful idea, it just doesn’t make economic sense yet and I’m not certain that it ever will, barring an unforeseen technological breakthrough. I’d love to have solar on my roof, but when I ran the numbers it makes no sense economically.
I live in central Florida, my home faces north and is located in an area devoid of large trees (I back up to the 5th green of a 9 hole golf course). My roof has sufficient space facing south to easily accommodate a 5KW rated set of solar panels and I would get a good bit of power from them, maybe enough to run the home from say 11am – 3pm with a significant contribution during other daylight hours. I think it would actually accommodate a set of 10KW panels but that’s probably far too much for me to use – hey, maybe I could offer my neighbors some of the excess power during the day – for a small fee, I could be come my own energy company ;). The installed cost of a 5KW set of panels locally is somewhere between $15-18K. If I were to want a battery storage system, like the Tesla 7KW PowerWall, $3000 system (they’ve already dropped the 10KW $3,500 system (system only, installation is ‘extra’ – Solar City will install the 7KW system for $5000) due to ‘misreading the demand’ and AFAIK they haven’t delivered any of the 7KW systems yet). There are other battery ‘storage’ systems available but they are entirely too awkward and I’m not overly enthused about keeping a large set of lead-acid batteries (and the ensuing maintenance requirement implied plus the small issue of the H2S emitted during charging). Not that I’m overly enthused about the increased fire risk a set of Lithium ion batteries implies either (plus the fact that I would have to cool the garage where these things would be housed as well, garages in Florida in the summer can reach temps around 120-130F during the day and the Tesla Powerwall system temp range tops out at 110F – not that you’d probably want to operate it at the maximum temp range). Also, lets just say my homeowners insurance company was less than enthusiastic about insuring the entire setup at the same premium price I now pay. They seemed to think there was an increased risk of wind damage to the solar panels and roof in one of the most active thunderstorm/tornado/hurricane areas in the country and that the batteries posed an additional fire risk … go figure. So they decided that I was well within my rights to install this stuff, but, they wouldn’t cover it nor any damages to the rest of the house if it should happen to rip the roof off in a storm or catch fire, or damage appliances if there was a problem with load that could be traced to the equipment/batteries.
Right now my electric bill runs an average of about $150/mo, so, if you add up the costs of the panels, inverters, battery systems, maintenance & repair, additional risk of the uninsured system and factor in whatever ‘savings’ I get from the power generated, I think I would be in a negative revenue position overall before I factor in replacement costs for the battery storage system.
Costs are 14-16K for the 7KW panels, $3500 for the Powerwall, $5000 for the installation of said power wall — total around $22-24K. It just doesn’t make economic sense.
And then the hurricane comes through and takes the panels off your roof.
But it will… sooner, rather than later.
Yes, and pigs will fly too.
No it won’t.
Still making stuff up, Grifter?
That’s naughty!
Get the Powerwall. Lead-acid batteries are too heavy for your walls. 🙂
In Kitchener, next door to Waterloo, there are new ‘net zero’ houses for sale. The net zero part of course refers to the power generation on the roof. Everything considered, the add-on is worth CDN$52,000.
You can never save that back.
The graphic should show Australian currency, not US.
What about the danger of installing such battery systems in a house…..?….
What is the cost and the efficiency of the safety measurement that such installments require, especially when so widely applied in hoses with children and elders around……….?
Is the insurance premium for such houses with these kind of systems going a be “safe” or with time increasing as by default as the risk increases?
How does this play with the numbers of cost-efficiency for such as?
As far as I can tell and know, such installed systems require a high maintenance and safety procedures and extra supportive expertise and equipment.
Unless someone has no means to have a serf electrician employed in his house service, or the means to afford a regular periodic electrical checkup-maintenance service, then the safety for such as systems is only an illusion……
Is this included in the cost-efficiency assessment?
What actually the risk v profit is in this case?
cheers
The most efficient battery systems are lithium-ion and they can catch fire.
If you want one of the lithium-ion systems, it needs to be a weather safe mechanical box at least 20 feet from the house or other buildings. Of course, homeowners are not told this by the companies selling them or by the green gangs and they are getting installed against the house or in basements etc.
There are also some carbon gel systems that are safer but they are nearly as efficient.
According to Wikipedia, the lithium battery efficiency tops at 90%, durability up to 1200 cycles. Lead acid battery efficiency tops at 95%, durability 800 cycles. Do your homework.
1200 cycles !!!!
Less than 4 years – oh dear!
Bill Illis
August 7, 2016 at 7:32 am
Thanks for your reply Bill.
But if only it was that thing about the safety.
You see there is another thing about the battery systems installed in houses.
It is an energy source inside the house, where the relation between it and the load is in a “one to one”,
The probable current surges during the usage of that energy due to faults and errors will have maximal impact and a high damage to equipment and installation with a very high risk and collateral damages.
You see, the power supplied to any house by the network comes from an energy source miles away, perhaps 100 of miles away, through a network.where the relation with any particular house is not in a “one.
to one”…….and the impact of surges due to problems, faults and errors with the load will have a minimal impact as the source of the energy will not bounce back as it is far away with a huge network in between damping down and absorbing most of the effect.
Is a better safety in numbers….
Also even in the case of a surge in the network, due to faults and problems in the network, it, the surge and the effect will be damped down and absorbed more efficiently by the network itself, without causing any high risk impact to the load.
Bigger and wider the network, more stable it is. Besides such networks are operated, maintained, serviced and repaired by highly skilled professionals…..7/11
So bigger the power supply by the battery systems installed in houses, higher is the risk and bigger the possible damages, it comes to a point that it really becomes very high risk.
No matter how good and modern such systems could be, still can not fix that essential problem “the one to one relation” between the energy source and the load.
The only one profiting in such schemes is only the salesman…….
cheers
Deep cycle lead acid batteries are reliable for far more than 1000 cycles. Tubular cells. Amazing and used as traction batteries for good reason. Lead plate cells are pointless. Float applications only.
The discharge on the tubular cells (voltage minimum) must be carefully controlled. Best to disconnect at 10.7 volts. Below that they suffer mechanical problems.
BTW long life batteries have more space under the bottom of the rods/plates. That means it takes longer for the debris to short them out. Open the shorted battery, clean out the lead gunk and they work again. This is a routine maintenance task in the Caribbean Islands where batteries are hard to come by. For a fixed application lead-acid is a far better choice.
[The mods question the wisdom of the average and below-average CAGW-inspired liberal voter to work underneath gallons of sulfuric acid, around charged electrical batteries releasing hydrogen and sulfuric acid requiring weekly and monthly maintenance; with lead, copper, cadmium, and hydrogen in open-topped containers on flimsy basement shelves …. .mod]
Do I have this right? The project costs $25,000 per household installed, the household is charged $3,500, for an annual savings in energy from the grid of $500 and each expects to break even on that basis after 7 years (provided the real discount rate remains 2.4%, the householder continues residence, and the battery system lasts)
So some entity loses about $21,500 for each household installed. Would that explain why the scheme isn’t being rolled out to the remaining 458,000+ households in the state?
It has been determined that you either have dangerous, mutant mathematical abilities or a calculator enabled by dangerous, mutant, analytical thought processes. All have been determined as threatening to our green utopian vision and the perpetuation of our benevolent, green government. Please remain mute and motionless and agents of our glorious green state will be by shortly to pick you up. You will be processed into soylent green for the many, many starving people.
The interest on the $25,000 at a low 5% takes it to $35,000, the householder loses any bonus rebate they currently receive as the power is stored and use off-peak, add another $500-$1500 pa.
Win,win,win for the battery company the financiers and the people who receive a kickback for proposing it.
Lose, lose lose for everyone else.
This is how we end up with this mess:
https://youtu.be/MOWQbRt8FbY
More wind turbine fires:
http://www.myhighplains.com/news/wind-turbine-catches-fire-south-of-guymon
Wow, I can’t believe somebody was standing halfway up the tower while it was burning…You can see him fall when it explodes at 5:43…
“… seven years for solar customers to recover the costs.” And the battery life is about seven years.
And soon after, the government will contract with a “battery leasing company” who will install (paid for by the government), maintain and service (paid by a monthly fee from the homeowner) these batteries. The contracts will go out to someone who is related to whoever runs the granting authority and government subsidies and monthly leasing fees will increase annually. Once a majority of people are comfortable with that, it will never go away.
Oops…1:43
The Molten Salt Reactor is the way forward for 24×7 emission free energy (CO2 is plant food and more the merrier). Nuclear energy is 3-5 Million times the energy density of solar and wind. Why the Sierra Club and Save the Earth types want nature killing RE that chops birds, bats and vistas or broils birds and insects covering vast tracts of land is beyond me. egeneration.org
Thermalization blocks any significant influence CO2 might have on climate. Increasing water vapor is countering the expected global temperature decline from blank sun & decline in net ocean cycle temperature. http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com
Changing from coal to natural gas adds water vapor.
“Changing from coal to natural gas adds water vapor.”
That is too rich, I love it. These environmentalists are the biggest threat to the earth. What a group of nit-wits.
This is a wonderful article, and helps explain a few of the issues that are misunderstood, expecially the “thermailization” of the energy. I never quite completely understood the path heat took out of the atmosphere, or that big dip at 15µn;. If the CO2 energy is thermalized, that IR dip at 15µn; isn’t trapped heat, it is thermalized energy. The energy is simply transfered to other wavelengths and/or converted in form, keeping with the conservation of energy.
http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com
So according to the ecoloons in the DPR SA, we can have all this great renewable power on only one condition: That DPR SA have a sufficiently thick interconnect to someone who can feed in coal power for up to 100% of DPR SA’s needs when the wind is off.
It shouldn’t be hard to find a categorical quote.
As such, it shouldn’t be hard to lead an ecoloon into arguing that since Oz cannot have an interconnect with anyone else (unlike Denmark) we can’t build a renewable grid.
Even after all the blackouts and brownouts in California in the early 2000’s, there was no replacement of the politicians who created the situation. They had Enron to blame, and did, and remained in place.
Governor Grey Davis was recalled.
Energy policy was not a major issue in the recall. It was mostly Davis trading favors for campaign contributions.
No no no. There’s no problem with the policies. Renewables, power supply, cost and math are just getting a bad rap from the perpetual resistance by naysaying critics.
If they were silenced the resulting uniform optimism would strengthen the weaknesses and iron out the wrinkles.
It’s vital that everyone become believers and get on board.
That sort of buy in is necessary to move beyond fossil fuel use and avoid catastrophe.
Government Whoring is a first-order cause of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Economic Misalignments. To compensate, there will be progressive debt, creative destruction, and redistributive change.
“Whom the gods would destroy, they first drive mad.”
Prepare to duck.