By Christopher Monckton of Brenchly
Joe Born (March 12) raises some questions about our paper Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model, published in January in the Science Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
To get a copy of our paper, go to scibull.com and click on “Most Read Articles”. By an order of magnitude, our paper is the all-time no. 1 in the journal’s 60-year archive for downloads either of the abstract or of the full text.
Mr Born says that he is not sure he should take on trust our assertion that the Planck or instantaneous climate-sensitivity parameter is about 0.31 Kelvin per Watt per square meter; that we “obscure” the influences on the fraction of equilibrium temperature response attained in a given year; that we have used that fraction “improperly”; that we have incorrectly assumed a steep initial increase in temperature response; that we have relied on a model generated by a step-function representing the effects of a sudden pulse in CO2 concentration rather than one in which concentration increases by little and little; that it is “not clear” how we have determined that the 0.6 K committed but unrealized global warming predicted by the IPCC was not likely to occur; that our model should have taken more explicit account of the fact that different feedbacks operate over different timescales; that we were wrong to state that in an electronic circuit the output voltage transits from the positive to the negative rail at loop gains >1; and that our discussion of electronic circuitry was “unnecessary”.
Phew! I shall answer each of these points briefly.
First, however, Mr Born’s essay is predicated on a fundamental assumption that is flat wrong. He says that increasing CO2 concentration raises the optical density of the atmosphere, in turn raising the effective altitude [so far so good],
“and, lapse rate being what it is, reduces the effective temperature from which the Earth radiates into space, so less heat escapes, and the Earth warms”.
No. The characteristic-emission layer – the “altitude” from which the Earth appears to radiate spaceward, and at which, uniquely in the climate system, the fundamental equation of radiative transfer applies – is the locus of all points at or above the Earth’s surface at which incoming and outgoing radiation are equal. In general, the mean altitude of the locus of these balance-points rises as a greenhouse gas is added to the atmosphere. Thus far, Mr Born is correct.
His fundamental error lies in his assertion that the increase in the Earth’s characteristic-emission altitude reduces the effective temperature at that altitude, “so less heat escapes, and the Earth warms”.
The truth, which follows from the definition of the characteristic-emission layer and from the fundamental equation of radiative transfer that applies uniquely at that layer, is that the Earth’s effective radiating temperature is unaffected by a mere change in the mean altitude of that layer. It is not, as Mr Born says it is, “reduced” as the altitude increases.
The radiative-transfer identity, first derived empirically by the Slovene mathematician Stefan and demonstrated theoretically five years later by his Austrian pupil Ludwig Boltzmann, equates the flux density at the characteristic-emission layer with the product of three parameters: the emissivity of that layer; the Stefan-Boltzmann constant; and the fourth power of temperature.
Now, the flux density is constant, provided that total solar irradiance is constant (which, averaged over the 11-year cycle, it broadly is), and provided that the Earth’s albedo does not change much (it doesn’t). Emissivity is as near constant at unity as makes no difference; and the Stefan-Boltzmann constant is – er – constant. It necessarily follows that the temperature of the emission layer is constant unless any of the other three terms in the equation changes – and none of them changes much, if at all, merely in response to an increase in the mean altitude of the characteristic-emission layer.
Precisely because the effective radiating temperature at the characteristic-emission layer is near-constant under an increase in the mean altitude of the characteristic-emission layer, and precisely because the lapse rate of atmospheric temperature with altitude is very nearly constant under that increase, it is the surface temperature, not the effective radiating temperature at the characteristic-emission altitude, that rises in response to that increase in altitude.
Many of the subsequent errors in Mr Born’s understanding appear to flow from this one.
So to the individual points he makes.
First, the value of the Planck parameter. We stated in our paper that we had accepted the IPCC’s stated value. We might also have explained that we did not take it on trust. Indeed, the first of many fundamental errors in the climate modelers’ methodology that I identified, back in 2006, was the mismatch between the official value 0.31 K W–1 m2 and the Earth’s surface value 0.18 K W–1 m2 that was implicit in Kevin Trenberth’s 1997 paper on the Earth’s radiation budget.
As our paper explains, to a first approximation the Planck parameter is simply the first differential of the fundamental equation of radiative transfer – i.e., 0.27 K W–1 m2. However, allowance for the Hölder inequality obliges us to integrate the differentials latitude by latitude, based on variations in both radiation and temperature. That brings the value up by about one-sixth, to 0.31 K W–1 m2.
To verify that the modelers had done this calculation correctly, I asked John Christy for 30 years’-worth of satellite mid-troposphere temperature anomaly data in latitudinal steps of 2.5 degrees and spent a weekend doing the zenith angles, frustal geometry and integration myself. My value for the Planck parameter agreed with that of the IPCC to three decimal places. And, precisely because all of the parameters in the fundamental equation of radiative transfer are as near constant as makes no difference, the Planck parameter is not going to change all that much in our lifetime.
Next, Mr Born says we “obscure” the influences on the fraction equilibrium temperature response attained a given number of years after a radiative perturbation. Far from it. We begin by making an elementary point somehow not stated by Mr Born: that if there be any feedbacks (whether net-positive or net-negative) operating on the climate object, then the instantaneous and equilibrium temperature responses to a given radiative perturbation will not be identical, and there will be some pathway, over time to equilibrium, by which the temperature response will increase (with net-positive feedbacks) or decrease (with net-negative feedbacks) compared with the instantaneous response.
We continue by explaining the IPCC’s values – in its 2007 and 2013 reports – for the principal temperature feedbacks. We further explain that the response to feedbacks over time is not linear, but (assuming the IPCC’s strongly net-positive feedbacks) follows a curve in which, typically, half the approach to equilibrium occurs in the first 100 years, and the remainder occurs over the next 3000 years (see e.g. Solomon et al., 2009). We also provide a simple table of values over time that are unlikely to introduce too much error. The table was derived from a graph in Gerard Roe’s magisterial paper of 2009 on feedbacks and the climate. Far from obscuring anything, we had made everything explicit.
Mr Born goes on to say we had used the fraction of equilibrium temperature response “improperly”. However, it is trivial that in all runs of our model that concerned equilibrium sensitivity (and most of them did) that fraction is simply unity. In those runs that concerned instantaneous sensitivity (some did), that fraction is simply the ratio of the Planck to the equilibrium sensitivity parameter. In those runs that concerned transient sensitivity, we were dealing with sub-centennial timescales, so that up to half of the equilibrium response should have been evident. All of this is uncontroversial, mainstream climate science. Admittedly, it is very badly explained in the IPCC’s documents: but not the least value of our paper has been in explaining simple concepts such as this one.
Next Mr Born says we have incorrectly assumed a steep initial increase in temperature response (one can see this steep initial response quite clearly in Roe’s graph). Mr Born may or may not be right that there should not be a steep initial increase; but, like it or not, that is the assumption the IPCC and others make. We provided worked examples in the paper to show this. In short, Mr Born’s quarrel on this point is not with us but with the IPCC.
Furthermore, once we had calibrated the model using the IPCC’s assumptions and had obtained much the same sensitivities as it had published, we then adopted assumptions that seemed to us to be less inappropriate, and ran the model to reach our own estimates of climate sensitivity: around 1 K per Co2 doubling.
One of those assumptions, attested to by a growing body of papers in the literature, some dozen of which we cited, is that temperature feedbacks are probably net-negative. Here, for instance, is a graph from Lindzen & Choi (2009), showing the predictions of 11 models compared with measurements from the ERBE and CERES satellites:
Given the probability that temperature feedbacks are net-negative, we ourselves had not assumed a strong initial temperature increase: for that assumption, made by the IPCC, depends crucially on strongly net-positive feedbacks, some of which – such as water vapor – are supposed to be quick-acting. However, the ISCCP data appear to suggest no increase in column water vapor in recent decades, and even something of a decrease at the crucial mid-troposphere altitude:
Mr Born complains that in determining the fraction of equilibrium temperature response at any given year we relied on a model generated by a step-function representing the effects of a sudden pulse in CO2 concentration rather than one in which concentration increases by little and little. So we did: however, as the paper explains, we tested the model to ensure that the results it generated over, say, 100 years were much the same as those of the IPCC. It generated broadly similar results.
As it happens, I had first come across the problem of stimuli occurring not instantaneously but over a term of years when studying the epidemiology of HIV transmission. My then model, adopted by some hospitals in the national health service, overcame the problem by the use of matrix addition, but sensitivity tests showed that assuming a single stimulus all at once produced very little difference compared with the time-smeared stimulus, merely displacing the response by a few years. Similar considerations apply to the climate.
Besides, our model is just that – a model. If Mr Born does not like our values for the fraction of equilibrium temperature response attained after a given period, he is of course free to choose his own values by whatever more complex method he may prefer. But, unless he chooses values that depart a long way from mainstream climate science, the final sensitivities he determines with our simple model will not be vastly different from our own estimates.
Next, Mr Born says it is “not clear” how we have determined that the 0.6 K committed but unrealized global warming predicted by the IPCC was not likely to occur. On the contrary, it is explicitly stated. We assumed ad argumentum that all warming since 1850 was anthropogenic, ran our model and found that the variance between its predicted warming to 2014 and the observed outturn was nil, implying – as explicitly stated in the paper, that there is no committed but unrealized global warming in the pipeline. See table 4 of our paper.
Interestingly, the official answer of the “hokey team” to our point is that we should have assumed that more than all the warming since 1850 was manmade. On that point, we disagree. For They cannot at once argue that the hefty increase in solar activity between the Maunder Minimum 0f 1645-1715 and the near-Grand Maximum of 1925-1995 had no influence on global temperature, but that the decline in solar activity since its peak in 1960 is so great that it would have caused significant cooling in the absence of anthropogenic forcings over the period.
Mr Born also complains that our model should have taken more explicit account of the fact that different feedbacks operate over different timescales. Well, our transience fraction may be tuned at will to take account of that fact. And we even presented a table of values of that fraction over time to take account of a mainstream, conventional distribution of temperature feedbacks and their influences over time. If Mr Born disagrees with Dr Roe’s curve, he is of course entirely free to substitute his own. We presented not tablets of stone but a model.
Next, Mr Born devotes much ink but not much light to his assertion that we were wrong to state that in an electronic circuit the output voltage transits from the positive to the negative rail at loop gains >1. We consulted the reviewed literature; a process engineer with three doctorates, who also consulted the literature; a doctor of climatology specializing in feedback analysis as applied to the Earth’s climate; and a Professor ditto (the last two being among the top six worldwide in this highly specialist field). I also discussed the question of the response-versus-loop-gain curve with a group of IPCC lead authors at a talk I gave at the University of Tasmania three years ago.
Not one of these eminent advisers agrees with Mr Born. That, on its own, does not mean he is wrong: but it does mean that the point we raise is at least respectable.
The Bode feedback-amplification equation is entirely clear: at loop gains >1 the equation mandates that the temperature response becomes negative. In an electronic circuit one can of course – as Mr Born does at rather tedious length – find ways of making the circuit oscillate even in the absence of loop gains >1, and one can find ways of making it not oscillate even at loop gains >1.
However, the equation actually used in the climate models (including ours) is, like it or not, the Bode system-gain equation. Mr Born carefully plots only that part of the graph of the equation below a loop gain of 1:
However, our paper plots the graph both sides of a loop gain of unity. A loop gain of 1 is equivalent to the feedback sum of 3.2 Watts per square meter per Kelvin in Mr Born’s graph, for in the climate the loop gain is the product of the feedback sum and the Planck parameter, and the Planck parameter is the reciprocal of 3.2.
On reading Mr Born’s piece one would think the point we had raised was both trivial and inappropriate. However, the specialists whom we consulted, and the equation itself, suggest that our point is both non-trivial and substantial.
Indeed, the Professor, until I debated the issue with him before a learned society somewhere in Europe a couple of years back, was a true-believer in the profitably catastrophist viewpoint. When I displayed the full plot of the Bode equation he went white.
He wrote to me afterwards, sending me a paper in which he had himself urged caution in the use of Bode in climate modeling. A few weeks ago he got in touch again to say he has thought about the matter ever since and has now concluded – damn you, Monckton – that I am right, and that in consequence climate sensitivity cannot be more than 1 K and may be less.
He has submitted a paper for peer review. If that paper is published, and if it proves correct, the science will indeed be settled – but in a direction entirely uncongenial to the profiteers of doom.
One of the IPCC lead authors in Tasmania interrupted my talk when I showed the full Bode graph and said: “Have you published this?” No, I replied. “But you must,” he said. “This changes everything!” Yes, I said, I rather think it does.
If the Bode equation is inappropriate for loop gains >1, then it may also be inappropriate for loop gains <1. It may – at least in its unmodified form – be the wrong equation altogether. And without it one cannot get away with claiming the absurdly high and unphysical sensitivities the IPCC profits by asking us to believe in.
At minimum, tough asymptotic bounds to constrain the behavior of the equation at the singularity should be imposed. That, at any rate, is what the very small variability of global temperature over the past 810,000 years would suggest: and, on that point, Mr Born surely agrees with us.
The hokey team have responded to this point by saying that the paleoclimate record (showing temperature varying by only 3.5 K either side of the long-run mean over the past 810,000 years) demonstrates high net-positive feedback in response to very small forcings over the period.
Accordingly, I consulted an eminent geologist who said the positive and negative forcings over so long a timescale were very substantial. So I consulted another geologist. He said the same.
Mr Born’s final point is that our discussion of electronic circuitry was “unnecessary”. Not so. The models use an equation taken from electronic circuitry, where it represents a real event, the phase-transition of the voltage from the positive to the negative rail at a loop gain of unity, and misapply it to the climate, which is an object in a class to which that equation does not apply, especially at the very high loop gains implicit in the IPCC’s estimates of climate sensitivity.
There are two principal reasons why the Bode equation – unless it is modified in some fashion analogous to Mr Born’s modification of a circuit to prevent its output from behaving as it would otherwise do – does not apply to the climate.
First, as temperature feedbacks and hence loop gain increase, there comes no moment at which the effect of the feedbacks is to reverse the output and push temperatures down, though that is what the Bode equation in the form in which it is applied to the climate models mandates.
Secondly, in an electronic circuit the output [voltage] is a bare output: it does not act to equilibrate the circuit following the perturbation amplified by the feedback. In the climate, however, an increase in surface temperature is precisely the mechanism by which the object self-equilibrates, and the Bode equation simply does not model this situation.
For these reasons, we considered it important to raise an early red flag about the applicability of the Bode equation. We are not the first to have done so, but as far as we know our brief treatment of the problem is more explicit than anything that has been published before in the reviewed literature.
I have a further paper on the Bode question in the works that has passed review by an eminent expert in the field (I don’t know who, but the journal is in awe of him). The paper will be published in the next few months.
At no point did that reviewer (or any reviewer) question the validity of the point we raised. On the contrary, he said that the paper was a good definition of a real problem. The paper describes the problem in some detail and raises questions designed to lead to a solution.
Readers who have struggled through to this point may now like to read our paper in Science Bulletin for themselves. There is, perhaps, not a lot wrong with it after all.
Monckton of Brenchley here is my take on how the climate may change.
Here is what I have concluded. My explanation as to how the climate may change conforms to the historical climatic data record which has led me to this type of an explanation. It does not try to make the historical climatic record conform to my explanation. It is in two parts.
PART ONE
HOW THE CLIMATE MAY CHANGE
Below are my thoughts about how the climatic system may work. It starts with interesting observations made by Don Easterbrook. I then reply and ask some intriguing questions at the end which I hope might generate some feedback responses. I then conclude with my own thoughts to the questions I pose.
From Don Easterbrook – Aside from the statistical analyses, there are very serious problems with the Milankovitch theory. For example, (1) as John Mercer pointed out decades ago, the synchronicity of glaciations in both hemispheres is ‘’a fly in the Malankovitch soup,’ (2) glaciations typically end very abruptly, not slowly, (3) the Dansgaard-Oeschger events are so abrupt that they could not possibility be caused by Milankovitch changes (this is why the YD is so significant), and (4) since the magnitude of the Younger Dryas changes were from full non-glacial to full glacial temperatures for 1000+ years and back to full non-glacial temperatures (20+ degrees in a century), it is clear that something other than Milankovitch cycles can cause full Pleistocene glaciations. Until we more clearly understand abrupt climate changes that are simultaneous in both hemispheres we will not understand the cause of glaciations and climate changes.
. My explanation:
I agree that the data does give rise to the questions/thoughts Don Easterbrook, presents in the above. That data in turn leads me to believe along with the questions I pose at the end of this article, that a climatic variable force which changes often which is superimposed upon the climate trend has to be at play in the changing climatic scheme of things. The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can change or reverse in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player in glacial/inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are , land/ocean arrangements , mean land elevation ,mean magnetic field strength of the earth(magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature gradient equator to pole), the initial state of the earth’s climate(how close to interglacial-glacial threshold condition it is/ average global temperature) the state of random terrestrial(violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation/oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) /extra terrestrial events (super-nova in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles.
What I think happens is land /ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth, the mean state of the climate, the initial state of the climate, and Milankovitch Cycles, keep the climate of the earth moving in a general trend toward either cooling or warming on a very loose cyclic or semi cyclic beat but get consistently interrupted by solar variability and the associated primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability, and on occasion from random terrestrial/extra terrestrial events, which brings about at times counter trends in the climate of the earth within the overall trend. While at other times when the factors I have mentioned setting the gradual background for the climate trend for either cooling or warming, those being land/ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean state of the climate, initial state of the climate, Milankovitch Cycles , then drive the climate of the earth gradually into a cooler/warmer trend(unless interrupted by a random terrestrial or extra terrestrial event in which case it would drive the climate to a different state much more rapidly even if the climate initially was far from the glacial /inter-glacial threshold, or whatever general trend it may have been in ) UNTIL it is near that inter- glacial/glacial threshold or climate intersection at which time allows any solar variability and the associated secondary effects no matter how SLIGHT at that point to be enough to not only promote a counter trend to the climate, but cascade the climate into an abrupt climatic change. The back ground for the abrupt climatic change being in the making all along until the threshold glacial/inter-glacial intersection for the climate is reached ,which then gives rise to the abrupt climatic changes that occur and possibly feed upon themselves while the climate is around that glacial/inter-glacial threshold resulting in dramatic semi cyclic constant swings in the climate from glacial to inter-glacial while factors allow such an occurrence to take place.
The climatic back ground factors (those factors being previously mentioned) driving the climate gradually toward or away from the climate intersection or threshold of glacial versus interglacial, however when the climate is at the intersection the climate gets wild and abrupt, while once away from that intersection the climate is more stable. Although random terrestrial events and extra terrestrial events could be involved some times to account for some of the dramatic swings in the climatic history of the earth( perhaps to the tune of 10% ) at any time , while solar variability and the associated secondary effects are superimposed upon the otherwise gradual climatic trend, resulting in counter climatic trends, no matter where the initial state of the climate is although the further from the glacial/inter-glacial threshold the climate is the less dramatic the overall climatic change should be, all other items being equal.
The climate is chaotic, random, and non linear, but in addition it is never in the same mean state or initial state which gives rise to given forcing to the climatic system always resulting in a different climatic out-come although the semi cyclic nature of the climate can still be derived to a degree amongst all the noise and counter trends within the main trend.
QUESTIONS:
Why is it when ever the climate changes the climate does not stray indefinitely from it’s mean in either a positive or negative direction? Why or rather what ALWAYS brings the climate back toward it’s mean value ? Why does the climate never go in the same direction once it heads in that direction?
Along those lines ,why is it that when the ice sheets expand the higher albedo /lower temperature more ice expansion positive feedback cycle does not keep going on once it is set into motion? What causes it not only to stop but reverse?
Vice Versa why is it when the Paleocene – Eocene Thermal Maximum once set into motion, that being an increase in CO2/higher temperature positive feedback cycle did not feed upon itself? Again it did not only stop but reversed?
My conclusion is the climate system is always in a general gradual trend toward a warmer or cooler climate in a semi cyclic fashion which at times brings the climate system toward thresholds which make it subject to dramatic change with the slightest change of force superimposed upon the general trend and applied to it. While at other times the climate is subject to randomness being brought about from terrestrial /extra terrestrial events which can set up a rapid counter trend within the general slow moving climatic trend.
.
Despite this ,if enough time goes by (much time) the same factors that drive the climate toward a general gradual warming trend or cooling trend will prevail bringing the climate away from glacial/inter-glacial threshold conditions it had once brought the climate toward ending abrupt climatic change periods eventually, or reversing over time dramatic climate changes from randomness.
NOTE 1- Thermohaline Circulation Changes are more likely in my opinion when the climate is near the glacial/ inter-glacial threshold probably due to greater sources of fresh water input into the North Atlantic.
Lord Monckton,
I have great appreciation for your work, and for your pachydermal ability to take the abuse hurled in your direction.
You deserve a wee bit of respite.
I would very much enjoy sharing a few of my cartoons with you, if the gentle readers of WUWT will permit my reposting of them for the occasion.
http://www.maxphoton.com/ice-capades/
http://www.maxphoton.com/linear-thinking-cyclical-world/
http://www.maxphoton.com/cloud-over-humanity/
http://www.maxphoton.com/what-a-waste/
http://www.maxphoton.com/before-nuts/
http://www.maxphoton.com/chicken-little/
http://www.maxphoton.com/anthropogenic-climate-change/
And lastly, although you are true gentleman, perhaps this might speak to you on occasion …
http://www.maxphoton.com/digitization/
Keep up the good fight!
Your friend,
Maxwell C. Photon
Splendidly surreal.
great stuff!!! my favorite:
http://www.maxphoton.com/what-a-waste/
absolutely Brill!!!!!
Christopher Monckton,
You refer us to Table 4. of MSLB (2015), wherein I find that the only tunable model parameters you hold constant are the CO2 fraction (qₜ), and the CO2 forcing change (ΔFₜ). The table supplies three different values for the transience fraction (rₜ) which is sensible since one would not expect such a massive system to respond immediately to a gradual change in external forcing on the order of 0.1 W/m^2 per decade. You propose that rₜ is a function of the feedback sum (f) over some time interval t, and Table 4 does indeed map rₜ to three different values for f, which I believe is also reasonable. [1]
The third tunable parameter you vary in Table 4 is the equilibrium climate sensitivity parameter (λ∞). You discuss λ∞ only very briefly in the body of the paper, I quote the relevant section in full:
4.6 The equilibrium climate-sensitivity parameter λ∞
The equilibrium-sensitivity parameter λ∞, in K W -1 m 2 , is the product of the Planck parameter λ₀ = 3.2 -1 K W -1 m 2 and the system gain factor Gₜ. Climate sensitivity ΔT∞ is the product of λ∞ and a given forcing ΔF∞.
By this, for there to be “no committed but unrealized global warming in the pipeline” — according to your model — means that present-day temperatures must represent ΔT∞ for the 1850-2014 interval, implying a value for rₜ as near to unity as not to make a difference, yet 0.6 is the value shown in Table 4 as the best fit to observation. As such, I do not believe that your conclusion follows from premises.
—
[1] MSLB (2015) notes that the relationship between rₜ and f are derived from Ref. 38: Roe G (2009) Feedbacks, timescales, and seeing red. Ann Rev Earth Planet Sci 37:93–115, which I’ve not reviewed.
Best to read our paper, and in particular table 4 and its explanation in the text.
Christopher Monckton,
MSLB (2015) Table 4 sets rₜ to 0.6.
says about rₜ:
4.8 The transience fraction rₜ
Not all temperature feedbacks operate instantaneously. Instead, feedbacks act over varying timescales from decades to millennia. Some, such as water vapor or sea ice, are short- acting, and are thought to bring about approximately half of the equilibrium warming in response to a given forcing over a century. Thus, though approximately half of the equilibrium temperature response to be expected from a given forcing will typically manifest itself within 100 years of the forcing (Fig. 4), the equilibrium temperature response may not be attained for several millennia [38, 39]. In Eq. (1), the delay in the action of feedbacks and hence in surface temperature response to a given forcing is accounted for by the transience fraction rₜ. For instance, it has been suggested in recent years that the long and unpredicted hiatus in global warming may be caused by uptake of heat in the benthic strata of the global ocean (for a fuller discussion of the cause of the hiatus, see the supplementary matter). The construction of an appropriate response curve via variations over time in the value of the transience fraction rₜ allows delays of this kind in the emergence of global warming to be modeled at the user’s will.
Emphasis added. That you have achieved a good fit from 1850-2014 using a transience fraction of 0.6 implies that four tenths of the expected ΔT∞ from the change in radiative forcing since 1850 has not yet been realized. That’s what the text above says, that’s what the model proposed in Eq. (1) says. The conclusion, ” … there is no committed but unrealized global warming in the pipeline …” appears incompatible with your model so long as rₜ is set to anything < 1 by the user, as you have done.
If there is some other place in the paper which explains this apparent contradiction, I'd be pleased if you would provide a specific quote.
Mr apGates and I are labouring under distinct interpretations of the meaning of committed but unrealised warming. As it is used by the IPCC, it means warming that would have been realised not at equilibrium some 3000 years away but by now.
There has been 0.9 K warming since 1750, 0.7 K of which has occurred since 1950, when we might have begun to influence global temperature. Now, as Roe’s graph in the head posting and our worked examples in the paper show, he and the IPCC would expect half of the equilibrium warming from the forcings since 1959 to occur within 100 years of that forcing: but, even on the assumption that the forcing since 1950 has been linear, the mean start date for the anthropogenic forcing is 1983, just a third of a century ago.
The modellers, therefore, are saying the would have expected a further 0.6 K of warming to have occurred by now. For the reasons clearly set out in our paper, we disagree.
Christopher Monckton,
I think the definition is rather simple: unrealized means warming which would occur if ΔF — any forcing — immediately stabilized at zero and remained unchanging long enough for the balance of the climate system to reach equilibrium. This is a conceptual construct only; such a thing could not conceivably occur in the system with or without any putative human influence. However, that is the concept MSLB (2015) discusses as the transience fraction, rₜ, with which I have no dispute.
Again, what I do take issue with follows. Your Fig. 4 sets the value of that parameter as 0.6. Implicit on the assumptions of the model, that means that four tenths of the expected warming from increased forcings already experienced has not yet occurred. That is not consistent with the concept of “no unrealized warming” as I understand those terms in plain English.
Kindly refrain from discussions of IPCC definitions or models, which I see as an unnecessary distraction, until you have answered to your own model, definitions and the apparently conflicting conclusion you have drawn from them.
Mr Gates should understand that when we considered the IPCC’S assertion that there was 0.6 K warming in the pipeline it was relevant to use the IPCC’S definition.
The 2.3 W/m2 forcing from our sins of emission since 1750 will cause 2.3 X .9 = 2 K warming at quilibrium using the IPCC’S overblown climate sensitivity. Yet just 0.9 K has occurred to date, leaving 1.1 K to come, of which the IPCC says 0.6 K should have occurred by now. Our paper considered whether the latter figure was appropriate.
Indeed, there are always overwhelming -ve feedbacks in any system that is long term stable. ( Climate seems to qualify there ).
In the circuit analogy, the output is only linear within a certain range beyond which the output is clipped. In climate it is highly non-linear Planck feedback. Now GCMs do have T^4 equations for Planck and Paul_K posted a discussion over at Lucia’s Blackboard a couple of years back about the “curvilinear” response of models, so I don’t think they are producing Bode like output.
Again the main question is which way the also-ran feedbacks tweak the Planck effect. This is what IPCC stupidly call “net-positive” or “net-negative”, in reality it is a case of ‘even more negative’ or ‘a bit less negative’.
The Planck “feedback” is not a feedback. It is a climate-sensitivity parameter. It is not, repeat not, treated like a true temperature feedback in the equations. Read our paper.
And the GISS ModelE, to name but one, definitely uses the Bode system-gain equation. See Hansen (1984, 1988).
Paul_K’s article:
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2012/the-arbitrariness-of-the-ipcc-feedback-calculations/
“However, the equation actually used in the climate models (including ours) is, like it or not, the Bode system-gain equation.”
There is no GAIN in the climate system, it is comprised of passive materials which are the electrical equivalent of resistors, capacitors and inductors. To create gain in an electronic circuit it requires an external source of energy. See how well the volume control knob on your stereo amplifier works when there is a power outage. NONE of the feedback equations apply.
What the climate science community wrongly calls feedbacks are in fact just coupled interactions. Any energy that causes warming in one localized location HAD to come from someplace else. Ignoring this violates the law of conservation of energy.
However, you do get points for barking way up a different branch of the same old wrong tree.
Cheers, KevinK
KevinK raises an interesting matter of definition. What is “Gain”?
In a system influenced by feedbacks, there are two gain factors: the closed-loop gain (which, in the climate is the product of the Planck sensitivity parameter and the feedback sum) and the open-loop or system gain, which (by the Bode system-gain equation) is the reciprocal of (1 minus the closed-loop gain).
Now, if I add CO2 to the atmosphere and the atmosphere warms, it can carry near-exponentially more water vapor, a greenhouse gas. If it does carry the extra that it can carry (and the data to date are divided on whether and to what extent it does), then that is a temperature feedback. If the ocean warms (as it is, a little bit), then it outgasses CO2, a greenhouse gas, and that is another temperature feedback. Tot up all these feedbacks and multiply by the Planck parameter, and you get the closed-loop gain. So, contrary to KevinK’s suggestion, it is not appropriate to say there is no gain in the climate system.
Sir, with respect; “If it does carry the extra that it can carry “, where does the “extra” come from ????
In your stereo amplifier all those extra electrons come in from the wire you plugged into the wall outlet (if you followed the carefully translated Chinese instructions). Without that wire there is no source of any “extra” anything.
There is no “gain” (as understood by the electrical engineering profession, those that created these equations you are misapplying) in the climate.
Cheers, KevinK.
KevinK asks where the additional water vapor in a warming atmosphere might come from. The major source would, of course, be the ocean.
While one agrees that “gain” in the climate is not the same thing as “gain” in an electronic circuit, there are such things as temperature feedbacks in the climate, but, for the reasons spelt out in our paper and further considered in the head posting here, their mutual amplification to obtain the system gain factor using the Bode equation seems improper and likely to be responsible for the wild exaggerations of climate sensitivity in the models that are becoming more evident with each passing month.
Monckton of Brenchley
carry near-exponentially more water vapor???
Alex asks what is meant by the atmosphere carrying more water vapor. One of the few proven results in the slippery subject that is climatology is the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, which says that, subject only to a weak dependence on temperature in the denominator, the propensity of the space occupied by the atmosphere to hold water vapor – known as its carrying capacity for water vapor – increases exponentially as that space warms.
However, as the head posting demonstrates, not all datasets show the column water vapor increasing. The differences between the datasets are considerable because water vapor, unlike CO2, is not well mixed in the atmosphere.
And, though some modellers do not seem to realise this, merely because the warmer atmosphere can carry more water vapor there is no requirement that it must.
Kevin,
Your ruminations on the defects of the electrical gain analogy, led me to wonder about other types of positive feedbacks in nature that might provide a superior analogy for the catastrophic global warming model. I came up with these:
– Avalanches
– Growth of bacteria colonies on an agar plate.
– Development of silver halide crystals in a darkroom
– Bursting of a levee, or a dike by floodwaters.
– Cutting of alluvial river bends by a current.
– clogging of the downspout of a rain gutter.
Of those six, the one I like the best as an analogy to the proposed runaway global warming is clogging of the downspout of a rain gutter. That actually seems a fairly decent analogy to the catastrophic model that is argued. The idea is that the flow through the downspout is similar to the IR radiated back into space, and the rainfall is analogous the the visible light that penetrates to the earth’s surface. Dirt and leaves are the AGW gases. More dirt and leaves causes increased clogging, which slows the flow, which causes even more clogging. If the gutter gets clogged, a catastrophic build-up occurs.
The problem of course is that all positive feedback mechanisms have some limit. In the case of the climate model, the obvious limit is the increase in cloud cover that would result from more water evaporation. The high albedo of the clouds reduces the incoming visible radiation, and a feedback limit is reached.
Simply sitting here noodling, it has always seemed more likely that the feedback is actually negative, and therefore stabilizing. Increased evaporation would seem likely to have greater effect by reducing incoming radiation due to higher cloud albedo, more than it would to produce a global warming effect by reflecting IR back to the ground.
Here is a story about the Ivanpah solar power plant producing far less power than predicted because of “unexpected cloud cover”. Increase in cloud cover albedo is not a small matter.
http://www.kcet.org/news/redefine/rewire/solar/concentrating-solar/a-year-after-launch-major-solar-plant-apparently-running-at-half-capacity.html
In fig. 5 of the paper, the horizontal axis refers to closed loop gain from -1 to +2.
Can we have a minus gain? and what does it mean?
I can understand op-amps with a gain of -2 etc, but that means a gain of 2 with a signal inversion.
Gain is a unit-less ratio: output / input.
Mr Richards asks whether one can have a negative loop gain. Yes, one can. The concept of negative feedback (and hence of negative loop gain) was first posited on the back of a newspaper by R.S. Black at Bell Labs (if I remember aright), while he was traveling on the Lackawanna Ferry. The labs still preserve the cutting. See Roe (2009) for the historical account.
In the climate, if the sum of the individual feedbacks is negative, then the loop gain must also be negative, because it is the product of the feedbacks and the Planck parameter.
Gain is indeed a unitless ratio. In the climate, the feedbacks are measured in Watts per square meter per Kelvin and the Planck parameter (properly expressed) is in Kelvin per Watt per square meter. The product of the two is, therefore, unitless, as shown in Fig. 5.
What an awesome response. Kudos to Mr. Born for having the cajones to post the original question and giving us the opportunity to behold the answer.
Many thanks to RH for his kind comment. Mr Born always produces challenging and interesting commentaries.
@KevinK March 16, 2015 at 4:39 pm
I see the power source for our planet rise every morning!
To say that the earth’s climate does not respond similar to a proportionally controlled system is, in my opinion, ignoring obvious data. Plots of long term temperature records show many, many cases of damped oscillations that give the appearance of a system of feedback that returns the temperature to a long term average value.
Steven, GAIN as seen in an electronic circuit requires the application of an external energy source ABOVE and BEYOND the signal being amplified. Amplifiers require energy to operate, resistors do not require energy to operate.
Trying to apply feedback equations from electronic circuits to the climate is wrong.
The energy arrives from the SUN, it warms things up, the warm things cool back down. There is nothing in the climate that amplifies the amount of heat.
Cheers, KevinK.
Kevin actually makes a very good point here, for example you need…say + and – 12 volts to power the amp and then you need to apply the signal, a signal which is amplified through the biasing of transistors etc from the 12 volts. To stop the output signal rising too high the out put is then feed back to the input (inverted) to reduce the out put.
The first stage is an amp to make things bigger then you have the feed back to make things smaller (negative) if the output gets too small then the feed back will make it bigger (positive).
In this case is the sun the equivilant of 12 volts or is it the input signal, whichever it is it cannot be both.
Cheers
What about resistance? Anything that increases the residence time of energy in the system (Land Ocean / Atmosphere) while input (TSI in this case considered for the purposes of this paper to be steady) remains the same, adds energy or heat to the system.
“Plots of long term temperature records show many, many cases of damped oscillations that give the appearance of a system of feedback that returns the temperature to a long term average value.”
Steven, you are mistaking a resonance condition for a feedback situation.
A plain old tuning fork exhibits resonance (it vibrates at one frequency much more easily than other frequencies). A tuning fork when struck (an input of energy with many frequencies) will “ring” at one frequency. It converts all of the energy coming in at all frequencies to one selective output frequency. There is no gain involved, the energy out (the tone) is less then the energy in (striking it).
NO GAIN WITHOUT EXTERNAL ENERGY.
Cheers, KevinK.
Kevin, warming of the surface of the earth is our subject. If we directly warm it with the sun, and the radiated heat from the surface is intercepted by carbon and water vapor molecules and partly radiated back to the surface, it is somewhat like a leaky blanket keeping more of the heat at the surface than would be there if it were simply radiated from the surface to outer space. This results in more water vapor being evaporated and even some more CO2 exsolving from the seawater. There is a simple warming (modulated to be sure at certain states of the warming by convective cooling and a host of other complications). Meanwhile this activity results in a cooling of the stratosphere that is robbed of its hit by interception near the surface. What we end up with in the net is that the radiation energy entering the system, basically equals the energy leaving at equilibrium with heating and cooling above and below the supplied energy but averaging equality.
To be clear, what is being discussed here is a wiggly surface temperature trace at the bottom of the atmosphere that, even though it has been egregiously tortured by warmist impatience to get it to a crisis, is the warming that a steady sun can effect with help from CO2 and H2O vapor. The effect, as mentioned, sets up negative feedbacks at a certain point that limit, halt or reverse warming for varying periods. Definitely, the electronic circuit doesn’t have these other specific side effects and maybe Bode is the wrong analogy, partly because the amplifier is the whole system, whereas the climate is just a part of the system.
Having posted previously both criticism and praise of this paper over at Judith Curry’s, plus having received the honor of a direct response there from Lord Monckton, i choose to refrain from further debate–
Except for one point that Judiths inability post the rearranged math mostly missed. The Monckton term 1/(1-lambda0 *gt) is mathematicaly equivalent ( using their own paper definitions) to Bode (1/[1-f]). That means their equation reduces to the Bode equation they criticize, but within the ‘well behaved’ parmeter regime) times a different way to calculate the ~1.2 Planck constant that Lindzen uses (deltaT = 1.2*(1/[1-f]). Now, the Monckton equation is equally/more useful, especially when ‘better’ estimates of the transience fraction rsubt and f ( lambda0 times gsubt) are plugged in. I remain a fan of the paper despite such quibbles. Because with observational parameterization, it agrees with the newer observational ECS.
And, the paper’s alternative derivation of lamda0 = 0.31 is wonderful, precise, and IMO correct. Plus quite instructive about how the GHG effect actually works, Skydragons.
Most grateful to Mr Istvan for his – as always – interesting comment. Yes, indeed, we have used the Bode equation in our model, but we have also expressed concerns about its applicability to the climate, particularly in the IPCC’s posited regime of strongly net-positive feedbacks. For if the equation requires modification (and we think it does), then it is at the singularity in the region of a closed-loop gain of unity that some asymptotic bounds should be imposed on the temperature output. We are still meditating on how to obtain credible empirical values and theoretical justification for such bounds. in the meantime, the equation works well enough for negative or weakly net-positive feedback sums.
I am glad Mr Istvan finds our model helpful. And I am particularly glad he welcomes our method of deriving the Planck parameter lambda-zero (we find the IPCC correct in its value for lambda-zero). For it took me many years to track down how this parameter ought to be derived: virtually everyone who used it actually had no idea.
Bode only applies to small perturbations in linear time-invariant single-variable systems. Whereas, Perkins and Cruz have provided a generalized sensitivity operator applicable to arbitrary parameter changes in multivariate nonlinear time-varying systems.
Cruz, J. B., Jr. “Feedback Systems,” 1972.
Cheers
Most grateful to Russell for this reference. Alas, as the IPCC makes clear, it is Bode that the models use.
Thank you for this, Lord Monckton. In my view, this is a very good example of a reasoned, and reasonable, debate.
I very much agree with Bubba Cow. WattsUpWithThat is gaining a wonderful reputation for civilized discussion of these interesting scientific questions.
Lord Monckton. Good job and I always enjoy your writing. Thank you for your high output of excellent presentations and writings.
And many thanks to Mr Lane too.
Reblogged this on Finding Confluence and commented:
Look a bit deeper before you follow the “science” of climate change…
I posted this on another thread today and it is the way I look at this.
—————-
The new paper by Stephens et al 2014 on Earth’s Albedo as measured by satellites is a very significant paper.
http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/albedo2015.pdf
The NH and the SH Albedo is almost identical despite there being more high Albedo land surface in the NH.
Throughout the year, the Earth’s Albedo hardly varies at all despite a large difference in the total solar irradiance received by the Earth through that year and a larger temperature difference in the NH summer versus the SH summer.
Clouds appear to be the main stabilization mechanism (although why that would be is missing in my opinion).
A comment a JudithCurry’s website caught my eye. That climate sensitivity should only be considered the CO2/GHG value only before any feedbacks until someone proves that the feedbacks are operating as surmised.
Climate science has the cloud feedback at a semi-large positive value (0.7 W/m2/K) that add’s roughly 1.0C to the 3.0C per doubling by itself. Here is how all the feedbacks multiply on top of each other calculated in the proper way using the Stephan Boltzmann equations at every single step to arrive at the 3.0C per doubling.
http://s10.postimg.org/i9q1gnjfd/Global_Theory_and_Feedbacks_3_0_C.png
It is now clear that the cloud feedback should definitely be set at Zero given the new Stephans paper. Nobody has been able to find a positive cloud feedback or at least there is both positive and negative feedbacks seen. Set to Zero.
Ice-Albedo feedback seem clear enough. When it is warmer, ice melts, less reflection of sunlight. But doubled CO2 also produces a large vegetation response and just 1 degree of added greening in the low-mid-latitudes where all the deserts currently form would more than offset any melting at 75N or 75S. This new paper says that Albedo is more stable than that anyway. Set ice-Albedo back to Zero. Another 0.2C of the 3.0C per doubling is gone.
The Lapse Rate feedback at about -0.9 W/m2/K appears to be completely opposite. The Tropopause is increasing in temperature far lower than the surface meaning that the lapse rate feedback is a positive value not a negative. This essentially means we should be less focussed on the tropopause and move all the measurements back to the surface and forget about lapse rates all together. Lapse Rate feedback Zeroed out (it was negative so this adds-back some to the warming).
Water Vapor feedback is the biggest positive feedback at about +2.3 W/m2/K in the theory. I have been tracking water vapor numbers for a long time and although there is the Clausius Clapeyron relation which appears to be solid theory, water vapor is only increasing at something like 50% of that predicted in the theory. Set that back to 1.225 W/m2/K.
Put all that together and we get just 1.65C per doubling.
Or as the commenter at Judith Curry’s website says, maybe we should just consider the warming from CO2 alone (and I am now saying not for the Tropopause anymore but the Surface only) as the true climate sensitivity which is just 0.78C per doubling or 1.0C per doubling if one allows the positive water vapor feedback which appears to be showing up).
Again calculated properly using the Stefan Boltzmann equation all the way.
http://s4.postimg.org/gff2bl4wt/Empirical_Results_Feedbacks_1_0_C.png
Bill, on my comment to Monckton’s equation over at Judith’s, I gave physical reasons that (1) cloud feedback is about zero, and (2) water vapor feedback should be halved (from AR5 ~0.5). See detailed arguments in my ebook Blowing Smoke. Plug those in to a reasonable observational transcience parameter, and out pops Callendar’s 1938 ECS, or Lewis and Curry’s 2014 ECS. That is magical, in the sense of wildly dispararete times and calculation methods all agreeing. My own guess is 1.7-1.8 rather than 1.65. Good enough for government work!
See also my reply to Lord Monckton upthread.
And one should not ignore the evidence for net-negative feedback. The near-perfect thermostasis of surface temperature for the past 810,000 years suggests either a giant feedback response to minuscule forcings (the official guess) or a minuscule feedback response to larger forcings.
Interesting that long term ocean feedbacks are not considered in the above, just as long term flux, positive or negative, in SW radiation reaching the SW selective oceans are apparently not considered?
The earth atmosphere actually cools in the SH summer, despite an IMMENSE increase of some 90 watts per M sq. What does the earth’s albedo do in the SH summer? (More NH albedo yes, more SH cloud albedo?) How much SH summer energy is lost to the atmosphere via solar insolation SW entering the oceans?
How much does an increase in atmospheric T and W/V reduce surface insolation and long term energy entering the oceans?
I have only seen poster Konrad address some of these questions, and I have seen no one address the disparate residence time of different wave length SW radiation penetrating the ocean surface to up to 800′ depth.
If we do not know the residence time of S/W radiation entering the oceans, we do not know how much energy a change in S/W ocean surface flux (positive or negative) can make to the earth’s energy budget.
Using my name (aka “Legion”) can get you censored at WUWT….
But really, I’m just the dark haired boy who played the Tennessee flat top box (HP Elite Book Workstation) –
But ride with me, fair warning, you better know you’re riding the Walbash cannonball –
http://www.eoearth.org/files/115701_115800/115741/620px-Radiation_balance.jpg
http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/152458/
As the earth is a sphere TSI changes and greenhouse gas forcing changes should have the greatest effect in the tropical region. The warming in the last 30 years is the same pattern of warming (high latitude warming) that occurs in the paleo record cyclically. We know of course the cyclic warming in the paleo record was not caused by changes to atmospheric CO2. The obvious questions is what caused the past cyclic warming and cooling of the earth. (Hint solar magnetic cycle changes correlate with the past warming and cooling cycles.)
The majority of the warming in the last 30 years has been in high latitude regions, which supports the assertion that the majority of the warming in the last 30 years was not caused by increases in atmospheric CO2 and was not caused by TSI changes.
The majority of the warming in the last 30 years has caused by cloud modulation effects of solar wind bursts, primarily from coronal holes. What causes coronal holes to appear on the sun, at what latitude on the sun coronal holes appear at, and when in the solar cycle the coronal holes appear at is not known.
Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) creates ions in the atmosphere. The amount of ions in the atmosphere changes cloud properties and cloud duration. The complication is solar wind bursts (primarily from coronal) holes create a space charge differential in the ionosphere which removes ions for 5 to 10 days which causes a reduction in cloud cover in high latitude regions and change in cloud properties in the tropical region. Solar wind bursts can inhibit the effect of high GCR.
As this paper notes changes planetary temperature correlate to the number and interval between solar wind bursts. For some reason there are people who are fixated with the number of sunspots on the surface of the sun rather than direct measurement of the variables that modulate planetary clouds. There are some people how appear to try to block the resolution how does solar changes modulate planetary climate. Hint: Changes to clouds (extent, cloud properties, and cloud duration) and changes to wind speed.
http://sait.oat.ts.astro.it/MmSAI/76/PDF/969.pdf
@William Howard Astley,
It might be easier reading if your comments in quotes were set off with square brackets–[ ]–which is the norm. 😉
Dear Lord Monckton;
“While one agrees that “gain” in the climate is not the same thing as “gain” in an electronic circuit”
Thank you for that admission.
Will the climate science community now stop pretending to be electrical engineers….
You’re making us real electrical engineers (this one degreed with decades of experience) look bad, all we admit to is the ability to keep the lights on (most of the time). We do not have the extraordinary amount of HUBRIS necessary to try and predict the weather at the end of this century. Of course maybe if we were less careful back in college and shocked ourselves a few more times with that old 220 Vac we might actually believe we could….
Cheers, KevinK
I agree with KevinK that the application of the system gain equation for electronic circuits to climat is a major source of the absurd exaggeration of climate sensitivity in the complex models.
Dear Lord Monckton, thank you.
Cheers, KevinK.
So where does water vapor, clouds, precip, evaporation/condensation, etc. fit into all of this? A greenhouse without water is a huge unstable hot box!
TS.6.1 Key Uncertainties in Observation of Changes in
the Climate System
• There is only medium to low confidence in the rate of change of
tropospheric warming and its vertical structure. Estimates of tropospheric
warming rates encompass surface temperature warming
rate estimates. There is low confidence in the rate and vertical
structure of the stratospheric cooling. {2.4.4}
• Confidence in global precipitation change over land is low prior
to 1951 and medium afterwards because of data incompleteness.
{2.5.1}
• Substantial ambiguity and therefore low confidence remains in the
observations of global-scale cloud variability and trends. {2.5.6}
• There is low confidence in an observed global-scale trend in
drought or dryness (lack of rainfall), due to lack of direct observations,
methodological uncertainties and choice and geographical
inconsistencies in the trends. {2.6.2}
• There is low confidence that any reported long-term (centennial)
changes in tropical cyclone characteristics are robust, after
accounting for past changes in observing capabilities. {2.6.3}
• Robust conclusions on long-term changes in large-scale atmospheric
circulation are presently not possible because of large variability
on interannual to decadal time scales and remaining differences
between data sets. {2.7}
IPCC doesn’t know.
http://www.writerbeat.com/articles/3713-CO2-Feedback-Loop
Barring some serious flaw in science or method, Miatello’s paper should serve as the death certificate for AGW/CCC.
http://principia-scientific.org/publications/PSI_Miatello_Refutation_GHE.pdf
The Greenhouse Effect and the Infrared Radiative Structure of the Earth’s Atmosphere
Ferenc Mark Miskolczi
Geodetic and Geophysical Institute, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Csatkai Endre u. 6-8, 9400 Sopron, Hungary
fmiskolczi@cox.net
How much more does this ground have to be plowed? How much longer must we beat this most certainly dead horse? As long as the money wheel goes around and around?
Nick, we are beating a dead unicorn, except some folks are desperately looking for signs of life out of said unicorn, WAIT ,WHAT’S THAT I HEAR, did that unicorn just exhale one little tiny breath, WHY YES IT DID, It’s right there in my peer reviewed computer model…..
It is fun, a little diversion from real world tasks, engage the unicorn beaters for an hour or so once in a while. Surely there is one last breath left in that unicorn….
Heck, we have peer reviewed science based on electrical engineering principles whose authors admit “well, it’s not really like an electrical circuit”…… OH KAY, whatever….
Cheers, KevinK
Crakar24 wrote;
“In this case is the sun the equivilant of 12 volts or is it the input signal, whichever it is it cannot be both.”
The Sun is the signal, and there ain’t no stinking +/- 12 volt power supply to drive the amplifier……
Cheers, KevinK.
I think that’s an excellent statement of the locus of radiative balance except that is is collapsed across spectrum . As you imply the altitude varies all the way from the surface for much of the visible spectrum to high in the atmosphere for wavelengths outside that interval .
An important aspect of that boundary is that within it , the divergence theorem implies the same mean temperature as that calculated for that boundary .
This could take a good half dozen lines of an APL to properly express in executable form for a spectral voxel map of the planet not counting those necessary to put the data in convenient form ..
Why don’t we want nicer weather and more abundant crops, again?
It is the intellectual stupidos like Al Gore and bell-wethers of that ilk who prefer abundant control to human well-being. And sheeple follow w/o thinking as they always did far too often in history: “Führer befiehl, wir folgen Dir!”.
tabnumlock
And what should “we” do to get nicer weather and more abundant crops?
(Hint: More Co2 in the air => More crops. Everything is now 12% to 27% faster, stronger, greener, with more fruits, food, fuel, and fodder for all.)
Gary Pearse;
“Kevin, warming of the surface of the earth is our subject. If we directly warm it with the sun, and the radiated heat from the surface is intercepted by carbon and water vapor molecules and partly radiated back to the surface, it is somewhat like a leaky blanket keeping more of the heat at the surface than would be there if it were simply radiated from the surface to outer space.”
Gary, you really should read a bit about how optical integrating spheres work. They have been around for a very long time and are well understood. An integrating sphere works like a perfect radiative “blanket” as described by the climate science community. Except that the “backradiation” reflected off the interior surface of the sphere does not ADD to the flux leaving the light bulb inside the sphere, It acts as a “virtual light source” and does not act as a blanket.
I do understand the “greenhouse hypothesis” quite well, except it is incorrect, and always has been incorrect. But thanks for yet another explanation of a hypothesis that has never been observed. LOOK A UNICORN, RIGHT THERE NEXT TO THE SQUIRREL…..
The energy that is “partly radiated” back to the surface simply delays the flow of energy through the system, since radiation travels at the speed of light this simply delays the flow of energy through the system. This is why optical engineers never use gaseous blankets to raise the temperature of a passive heat source (like a rock, or the surface of the Earth).
When you put a blanket over a rock (or a deceased human being) the “response time” of the temperature change simply lengthens. A dead body does not get warmer than room temperature with or without a blanket.
Thanks for yet another tired explanation of a failed hypothesis.
Cheers, KevinK
A dead body does not get warmer than room temperature with or without a blanket.
Obviously a live body doesn’t get any warmer either, right?
This is just a stunningly bad understanding of basic heat transfer.
The live body has an internal heat source, the dead body does not.
Tsk Tsk,
Actually, after my dear departed mother “crossed her last bridge” I gave her a farewell “peck on the cheek” before we interred her remains in an “eternal resting spot”.
She was room temperature, I was not. I do not think that adding a blanket to her “remains” would have changed that simple FACT.
Also, I have done lots of detailed engineering work regarding basic heat transfer, if I had a “stunningly bad understanding of basic heat transfer” why am I still employed as a senior engineer (three decades plus) ???
Cheers, KevinK.
While clearly there is natural variability countering, easily, the tiny addition in CO2 parts per million added to the atmosphere anthropogenically (never mind any proposed amplification related to increasing water vapor cuz there ain’t any), this paper turns South with its outdated use of clearly discalibrated Solar data.
Solar scientists have acquiesced to the excellent research Leif and others have burned the midnight oil over regarding the various means by which sunspot numbers have been counted in the past. That the above paper fails to use this most excellent research, speaks.
For me, it speaks loudly and encourages me to take the rest of the paper with a grain of salt. Why? The discalibrated Solar data is a no-brainer. It is research that is clear and well-founded. Not to use it means that authors are willing to disregard gold standard research. Again, that decision speaks. Clearly.
If you want to make a reasoned main point, every subpoint you make must also be well-reasoned. Fix it. Add a corrigendum.
Ms Gray has not demonstrated tha our paper relied on solar activity data at all. In fact, it did not do so. She should perhaps have read it before rishing to judgment.
Mr Svalgaard has not yet explained why the weather was so cold during the Maunder Minimum if it did not occur.
Explanation is simple: solar activity has very little to do with the climate.
Sorry Dr. S,
If you don’t understand how the sun heats the oceans, you can’t understand how component TSI effects climate. You can’t understand the true effect of cloud cover variation. You don’t understand how the sun heats the oceans. You have demonstrated this many times. Your comment is without value.
But hey, Viscount Monckton doesn’t either. you could join his club!
That’s the Gray way.
Come on, Pamela. Put on your reading cap.
“Explanation is simple: solar activity has very little to do with the climate.”
Ridiculous statement for someone who has spent their time on solar activity. Halve output: huge influence. Remove all output: huge influence. Vary output slightly up or down?
Perhaps a temporary change in the equilibrium, but the atmosphere is self-correcting to a point. At what point is it not? You don’t know. I don’t know.
Your assumption that solar activity has little to do with climate is based on your assumptions about how much solar activity has varied (your models), and what effect it has had on temperatures (proxy reconstructions).
You can answer neither variable with any degree of certainty, therefore your opinion should be taken with a mountain of salt, regardless of your personal hubris on the subject.
“… why the weather was so cold during the Maunder Minimum if it did not occur.”
But was it really? Greater variability with deeper winters perhaps, climate is not the average of weather.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif
Does Monckton’s model explain the LIA?
Mr Svalgaard asks whether our model explains the Little Ice Age. No. The model is designed to study the influence of changes in CO2 and other greenhouse-gas concentrations on the climate.
And discounting any other causes there might be? in particular, solar activity?
Konrad has descended to yah-boo. That is not helpful.
Mr Svalgaard first says solar activity has no effect on climate and then asks why my model takes no account of solar activity.
If he would do us the kindness of reading our paper at scibull.com,he will find that it is designed to study the anthropogenic contribution to global warming.
It is not what I think that is important here. You believe [or at least claim so as per the graph you showed] that solar activity is very important, yet you ignore it in your model. That is the disconnect.
Monckton of Brenchley March 17, 2015 at 9:18 am
”Konrad has descended to yah-boo. That is not helpful.”
No, I descended to Johnny Cash, an entirely different matter.
Get over yourself Monckton old boy. I gave you a serve on a previous thread against your stupid “yah-boo” accusation. I’m calling you out. Oceans a near blackbody or an extreme SW selective surface? Wanna run back to your Effective Radiating Level or whatever the heck warmulonians are calling it this week?
I so totally own you.
“yah-boo”? Or for Fu@Ks sake! Why not just screech “slayer” or “sky dragon” like a typical panicked warmulonian? Worthless little mathematician. Empiricist is just as little above your pay grade isn’t it?
Just fold Christopher. I know what you did last summer. You cannot win. You still gave to pay for what you did.
Seriously, you supported the idea that adding radiative gases to the atmosphere would reduce the atmospheres radiative cooling ability. I said that the net effect of our radiatively cooled atmosphere was cooling of the oceans. Black or white. Right or wrong. There is no middle ground. I own you because you were stupid enough to put “realpolitik” ahead of science. This is the age of the Internet. Therefore you wear this forever. As I said. Stupid.
Incidentally, Pamela, are you for a monetary gold standard?
While I most certainly am — (the unadulterated gold standard cum gold bills … not Rothbard’s American libertarian version …), most people around these parts fall for the Gold War propaganda that gold is a “barbarous relic”, that its value is subjective, that it has no utility, and other claptrap. (Gold is still the central pillar of the world’s monetary system, its value is objective, and it has constant marginal utility.)
May I suggest that you not use the phrase “gold standard research” unless you yourself believe that the gold standard is the gold standard. Otherwise, you contradict your own point … loudly.
You have lost me. Gold standard research is a common term amongst researchers. I have published research so am quite familiar with its meaning. You post makes no sense.
I’ll agree w/Pamela that the solar-theory doesn’t hold water. But I don’t think that shoots a hole thru Monckton’s analysis — it just means variations like the Medieval & Roman warm periods, and the LIA are internally-generated. Shouldn’t be a surprise — look at the much more drastic D/O and Heinrich events during the glacial periods. Certainly those aren’t solar-caused, or our sun is hiding some kind of extreme behavior that we have no proxy evidence or theory for support.
One point — assuming ALL the warming since ~1850 is GHG is a stretch — how can a natural temp cycle like the previous ones be disregarded? OK, for the sake of analysis to get a worst-case, but how much is it really? 90%? 50%? 10%? Models can’t do such natural-cycles, they just show linear changes in temperatures proportional to GHGs.
We have assumed that all the warming since 1850 is anthropogenic solely ad argument um, to establish an upper bound on warming in the pipeline.
Lord Monckton, Mr Born,
thanks for your — at least to me — intellectually challenging exchange of scientific facts and opinions.
Live and learn…
The GHE might be a simplistic and imperfect analogy, but it really fails when it ignores water vapor. Walk into a greenhouse and what do you notice? 1) it’s hot, 2) it’s humid.
Picture an empty glass box in Arizona. Picture another glass box with a hot tub set at 55F, jets to bubble the surface like waves, fans to move the air as wind. Record temperatures and humidity.
It’s the latent heat of water vapor, clouds, precip, albedo, condensing and evaporating, absorbing and releasing heat at a constant temp, that moderates and modulates the atmosphere. Nothing new. And that demonstration/explanation above doesn’t need pages of calculus.
Visit your local power plant with a wet cooling tower. What’s happening inside that tower, described by moist air psychometrics, explains it all.
Mr Born is correct that if the CO2 suddenly increased in the atmosphere (a not realistic case), the average altitude of radiation to space would increase, and the radiation out would drop due to the lower temperature at the higher altitude. The unbalance would cause excess energy to accumulate and heat the atmosphere until the radiation balance to and from space matched again, so the final average temperature at the higher altitude was the same as the previous temperature at the lower average altitude. However, Lord Monckton is correct that at equilibrium, the temperatures would be the same. Since CO2 concentration changes slowly, the atmosphere is never far from effective equilibrium, and Lord Monckton’s point is more realistic to the real world. If Me Born thinks that the unbalance still holds at equilibrium, and this is the cause of increased temperature, he is wrong. Otherwise you are talking past each other on transient vs equilibrium processes.
Clearly written by someone who doesn’t own IR instruments and measures the sky.
“Mr Born is correct that if the CO2 suddenly increased in the atmosphere (a not realistic case), the average altitude of radiation to space would increase”
Really? You know this, how? By how much are you suggesting? Twice? Fifty times? On what basis do you suggest that, say, a doubling or tripling of CO2 would have the slightest effect on other than a short-term rebalancing of the equilibrium?
You have no emperical evidence that this would be the case. This is just blind speculation!
Just to complete the thought: No, I don’t think the unbalance still holds at equilibrium. As a definitional matter, though, I think we need to consider the forcing to remain even after balance is restored, so long as the CO2 concentration remains elevated; otherwise, the surface temperature would relax back to its pre-disturbance value.
Joe, The only forcing that remains is that the new average altitude of radiation to space has increased and remains increased for the increase in CO2. The lapse rate does the rest. There is no mechanism that changes unless the albedo or lapse rate changes. If there are feedbacks, the comments are for the final average equilibrium state, not just the CO2 alone.
There is another thing which changes with “an increase in the mean altitude of the characteristic-emission layer”, because the area increases. It probably does not change evenly, but even so it probably is not significant because the radius is from the center of the Earth. The baseline at the surface is over 6,000 km.
Also, a larger area at a higher altitude also means that the radiation from the surface is spread over a larger area. Perhaps not to a significant extent, but the greater area would have some cooling effect at the layer.