The Antarctic 'research' fiasco – 'would you, could you, in a boat'?

This will be a top “sticky” post for awhile since interest is high – new stories will appear below this one – Anthony

UPDATE: Josh channels the boat people

UPDATE2: Another irony is discovered, this one doubly deep.  See update 2 below.

UPDATE3: see WUWT and Weatherbell help KUSI-TV with a weather forecasting request from ice-trapped ship in Antarctica Akademik Shokalskiy

UPDATE4: AMSA: Helicopter rescue of Akademik Shokalskiy likely to commence shortly

(It’s off again, then now its on again, with report the helicopter has landed)

UPDATE5: All the passengers (tourists and scientists) are off the ship

UPDATE6: Tough questions need to be asked

UPDATE7: Trouble on the rescue ship – reaching open water not so easy

AIT_Mawson
Former Akademik Shokalskiy has been renamed in Al Gore’s honor. Satirical image by: Ollie Cromwell @TheRedRag on Twitter

As we reported previously on WUWT here and here, the saga of the “climate scientists/tourists trapped in ice” continues to fascinate many. Now a second ship has given up on rescue, after the Chinese ship “Snow Dragon” gave up two days ago. The Aurora Australis has abandoned rescue of the trapped Russian “research”vessel in Antarctica and a helicopter evacuation in now being ordered. This episode has taken on a heightened comedic fiasco-like quality.

Now, with such a fantastic failure in full world view, questions are going to start being asked. For example, with advanced tools at their disposal (that Mawson never had) such as near real-time satellite imaging of Antarctic sea ice, GPS navigation, on-board Internet, radar, and satellite communications, one wonders how these folks managed to get themselves stuck at all. Was it simple incompetence of ignoring the signs and data at their disposal combined with “full steam ahead” fever? Even the captain of the Aurora Australis had the good sense to turn back knowing he’d reached the limits of the ship on his rescue attempt.  Or, was it some sort of publicity stunt to draw attention? If it was the latter, it has backfired mightily.

One might argue that with photos like the one below, this whole “Spirit of Mawson” research expedition, is little more than a media stunt.

Guardian_antarctica_media_stunt

Source: [ http://twitter.com/GdnAntarctica/status/412977161323036672 ]

Even after the ship was trapped, these reporters still had a party like atmosphere going on:

Gdn_mens_catalog

Source: [ http://twitter.com/GdnAntarctica/status/416881634273525761/photo/1 ]

Yesterday, Andrew Revkin tweeted something that I agreed with, especially since so many of the people trapped in the ice on the ship seem to have a nonchalant, almost partly-like atmosphere going on.

Yes, the cost and risk is significant. These folks trapped on-board don’t seem to be cognizant of that issue, following the #spiritofmawson Twitter feed, it’s like watching reports (with pictures and video) from a high school class party.

And here’s the kicker. Even the public saw through the charade at the beginning. Trying to get crowd funding from the public for this trip failed miserably as this Indigogo campaign shows:

mawson_funding1

Source: http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/help-us-return-to-mawson-s-antarctic-hut-the-home-of-the-blizzard

Maybe it had to do with the ridiculous image of Professor Chris Turney in full cold weather gear standing in the midst of a tropical forest.

Right after the ship got stuck and there was a realization that the world was watching, one scientist on-board, Dr. Chris Fogwill, of the University of New South Wales, decided that it would be an opportune time to hit the public for money again:

spiritofmawsonmoney

Source: http://www.spiritofmawson.com/

And again, the public has seen through this, and today, the campaign remains stuck at $1000 with just a few donors. People are realizing that there’s no real science being done on this trip, and that it seems to be little more than a chartered party boat for Antarctic enthusiasts and media.

Now, with the ship to be evacuated via helicopter, will the Akademik Shokalskiy join the list of recent ships that have been sunk in Antarctic waters?

Ships that have sunk in Antarctic waters in recent years (h/t to David Archibald)

clip_image006

The Brazilian yacht “Endless Sea” sank in Maxwell Bay, Ardley Cove on Saturday 7th April, 2012. It was used for “scientific and educational expeditions”.

clip_image002

The sunken remains of the 76-ft Mar Sem Fin, aka “Endless Sea”, which sunk on April 7, 2012, lies at a depth of about 9 meters (30 ft) in Ardley Cove, Antarctica.

clip_image004

In November 2007, the Linblad Explorer hit sea ice and sank.

clip_image008

In April 2013, the Chinese factory fishing ship Kai Xin caught fire and sank near Bransfield Strait at the Antarctic Peninsula.

And there are others, these are just a few recent ones.

With so much concern for the pristine environment of Antarctica, one wonders how much environmental damage these sinkings are doing.

And when the trip is nothing more than a party for your friends and media, disguised as a “scientific expedition”, one wonders if there shouldn’t be some moratorium on such trips.

Richard Tol summed it all up nicely with one sentence:

UPDATE:

The #spiritofmawson hashtag is now getting competition from the hashtag #ClitanicDisaster in honor of the trapped climate scientists that the MSM won’t mention as being climate scientists.

========================================================

UPDATE 2:

reader Aphan writes on 2013/12/31 at 7:16 pm

I don’t know if anyone was posted this yet, but the IRONY just gobsmacked me.

The British “explorers” on board the MV Explorer who were “commemorating the Spirit of Shackleton” found themselves repeating HIS adventure when their ship struck a piece of submerged ice and then SANK in the Antarctic in November of 2007! None of the passengers or crew were lost. But HOW AMAZING is it that both the “Spirit of Mawson” trip AND the “Spirit of Shackleton” cruise trips ended in disaster from sea ice?????

http://www.jamescairdsociety.com/shackleton-news-104519.htm

http://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/news/explorer-sinks-antarctica.html

I mean…come on. What are the odds?

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clipe
December 30, 2013 3:07 pm

Costa Climordia?
Clitanic?
Green Submarine?
Argo Not?
Frozeidon?
Das Woot?
Mary Frose?
Mismarck?
Santa Myass?
USS Enterice?
Park Royal?
Fluenose?
Britannice?

leon0112
December 30, 2013 3:11 pm

@gunga din How about Antarctic Algorithm?

john
December 30, 2013 3:11 pm

john says:
December 30, 2013 at 2:44 pm
Questions:
One more question, Does Lloyds of London insure the boat?
http://www.hawaiifreepress.com/ArticlesMain/tabid/56/ID/11177/Lloyds-of-London-Lawsuit-Reveals-Story-Behind-Kahuku-Windfarm-Fires.aspx

aiW8ho
December 30, 2013 3:12 pm

Finnish artic expertise at its best! (Akademik Shokalskiy – built in Finland, Aurora Australis – designed in Finland) Nice continuation to our legacy (Lindblad Explorer – also built in Finland).

mick
December 30, 2013 3:14 pm

Breaking News:
Climate refugees from the ice trapped Akademik Shokalskiy to be offered asylum in Maldives.

December 30, 2013 3:16 pm

This is a classic case of the leaders of a hazardous but successful expedition often being regarded as heroes (who triumphed over adversity), and the leaders of a failed hazardous expedition being called “foolish” or worse.
There are guidelines that help to ensure a successful expedition :-
1) Have a backup plan, in case the original plan fails. .. eg. Use 2 or more vehicles (or ships) in case the primary vehicle breaks down or gets stuck.
2) Advise authorities (and others) of your intentions so that they can be forewarned of any possible rescue attempts, and remember to tell them when you have returned safely.
3) Do not have a firm timetable. If you *have to get to a certain place by a certain day or a certain time you could easily be tempted to “cut corners” and take unwise risks that may be beyond the skills and abilities of all the party members.
4) Be prepared to turn around and return to safety in case you encounter conditions that are beyond the party’s skills and abilities, and there are no alternative routes.
5) Ensure that all vehicles and equipment items are suitable for the conditions that you can expect to encounter.
6) Ensure that all drivers and operators of equipment have the necessary skills and experience.
7) Be aware of weather forecasts, and other conditions that would affect the expedition, such as the state of roads, tracks, sea, ice, etc.
8) Any other points that are specific to your expedition, such as wearing suitable clothing and taking the necessary safety or rescue equipment.

Eric Eikenberry
December 30, 2013 3:17 pm

“Trenberth’s missing heat? Nope, not down here!”

Skeptik
December 30, 2013 3:17 pm

“The dedicated polar mission finds the region now to be dumping over 150 cubic km of ice into the sea every year. It equates to a 15% increase in West Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level rise.”
i.e. 35 cubic miles.
There are icebergs bigger than that.

DD More
December 30, 2013 3:19 pm

GlynnMhor says: December 30, 2013 at 10:16 am
I wonder how much volume their sewage holding tanks can hold, and whether they’re going to have to start dumping straight into the ocean.

The way this ship is listing and raised, I wonder how their water intake line is doing. Don’t believe those marine engines work to well with out cooling water.
Also from the first report, why didn’t they know who to call for rescue?
AMSA’s Rescue Coordination Centre Australia (RCC Australia) was contacted by the Falmouth Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC) in the United Kingdom on Christmas morning.
The Falmouth MRCC received a distress message via satellite from a Russian flagged vessel, MV Akademik Shokalskiy, with 74 people about 7.20am (AEDT).

Rational Db8
December 30, 2013 3:20 pm

re: Mark says: December 30, 2013 at 12:13 pm

The tone of these articles makes it seem like you’re rooting for these people to drown. They’re in real danger, I hope they get rescued. After they’re safe, I’ll join in making fun of them.

I don’t agree about the tone of the articles and find not the least wrong with having a bit of fun at the expense of those being so silly about anthropogenic global warming. That said, I do hope they get rescued safely – but would be happy if it occurs AFTER they’ve had a few days on “rations” or better yet, without food or at least with a bit of serious hardship. Again, I wouldn’t wish any actual harm on any of them, but they could sure stand to learn a lesson from this, particularly considering the risk to others lives and the expenses involved in rescuing them from their own foolishness.

Alan Bryant
December 30, 2013 3:20 pm

There is quite a few things wrong with Chris Turney’s assessment of the ice-pack that has the vessel stranded.
Turney states that it’s old multi-year ice that has them stuck, while the skipper of the Aurora says its a mixture of both one year, and older ice mixed.
Then Turney wants to blame a glacier that broke off a few years ago, but we can view imagery of the glacier hes talking about and that looks like its still fairly intact, not melted or broken up like he suggests.
Also, the extent of the glacier that was left after a good portion broke off, is currently still larger than the measurements made of it by Mawson a century ago.
These guys will go to any length to make up crap.

GlynnMhor
December 30, 2013 3:26 pm

“Clitanic” sounds rather suggestive, does it not?
We’ll all be on Santa’s naughty list if we keep going in that direction.

john robertson
December 30, 2013 3:27 pm

Jo Nova has a good post up.
The media is the story here, they are trying so hard to avoid reporting these simple facts, that they are doing full blown comedy.
Tap dancing away form the facts, its a tourist vessel , not a propaganda voyage ,sponsored by amongst others, the media, Updates are slow to come, yet the vessel is stuffed with presstitutes.
It is summer in the south, yet the ice is building around their trapped employees.
The head of the “Expedition”, has a business premised on the belief that CO2 emissions are bad, yet is allowing all kinds of fuel to be burnt, to save his sorry self.
This situation writes itself for a competent investigative journalist, the irony has saturated.
The worlds ice is melting, yet it has now stopped all rescue attempts.
2013 is ending on a comedic note.
Happy New Year.

Joe Bastardi
December 30, 2013 3:31 pm

The most remarkable thing: They actually believe their own drivel.

December 30, 2013 3:33 pm

http://www.bisbos.com/images/hubris_in_ice.jpg
Image: Research Ship “Hubris” trapped in cherry-picked ice. Transcript of first distress message: “Research ship Hubris trapped by icy representation of Nature’s indifference to climate models STOP Lack of proper planning caused by pompous certainty in own predictions STOP Microcosm of current state of climate research STOP”
From the ships log:
“Day 12: Invented new Reality TV show “I’m a serious climate scientist – get me out of here!”
“Day 27: Still no sign of polar bears. Obviously all died out due to climate change. Had planned to have a team clean the ships solar panels, but there aren’t any. Now burning penguins to keep warm.”
“Day 35: Situation critical – power limited to 23 hours a day – scientists unable to continually send out Tweets/upload videos to YouTube from our white hell. Made a snowman!”
“Day 42: Moral low. Cheered us all up by playing our favourite game “Hide the Decline”, and planning our glorious return, lecture tours, Sunday magazine articles, glossy illustrated books, multimedia press packs, documentary series, Nobel Prize acceptance speeches, and our next major scientific expedition – surfing to the North Pole.”

December 30, 2013 3:33 pm

Hot under the collar says at December 30, 2013 at 3:01 pm
…. Hear, Hear.
Spot on.

nigelf
December 30, 2013 3:34 pm

I really think this has a lot longer legs than Climategate did. It’s reaching a huge amount of people and a lot of news sites aren’t too sympathetic to their plight and are spelling out the irony of the whole fiasco. It will only get worse if there are accidents during the transfer or if the ship sinks.
This is one turd that can’t be made shiny, no matter how much spin the shysters try and put on it.

Stephen Brown
December 30, 2013 3:34 pm

I was talking to a near-neighbour about the predicament of this ice-bound vessel when I discovered that he, too, was a WUWT reader and has been following this story. He’s a retired Royal Navy Commander, he served in their ‘Silent Service’ ( the subs). He has been to where the ice is, many times. He knows it only too well.
He reckoned that a sustained wind of 6 knots or more for a day, bearing on the side of the trapped vessel, would ensure that the ice will ‘compromise the integrity of the ship’s hull’. In other words, crush it. He compares 20 miles of moving 10-foot thick ice to a mountain moving a foot a day. Nothing man has ever constructed can resist it. He is most certainly not sanguine about the survival prospects of the trapped vessel if the weather turns.
Those on the trapped vessel should be worried. Very worried.

December 30, 2013 3:34 pm

Looks as though Dr. David Barber told them not to worry about satellite observations of growing sea ice; the ice was rotten and duping the satellites.
I hope he is on board to see just how rotten it is.

Steve from Rockwood
December 30, 2013 3:35 pm

Mawson and his crew travelled inland over 300 miles on dog sled. He lost 2 of his 3 companions and returned almost 3 months later only to find the steamship Aurora had left the bay and he would have to spend another winter in Antarctica.
From http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/history/2012/01/the-most-terrible-polar-exploration-ever-douglas-mawsons-antarctic-journey/

Mawson’s greatest fear was that he, too, would stumble into a crevasse, and on January 17, he did. By a piece of incredible good fortune, however, the fissure that opened was a little narrower than his half-sledge. With a jerk that all but snapped his fragile body clean in two, Mawson found himself dangling 14 feet down above an apparently bottomless pit, spinning slowly on his fraying rope. He could sense the sledge creeping to the mouth [of the crevasse]. I had time to say to myself, ‘So this is the end,’ expecting every moment the sledge to crash on my head and both of us to go to the bottom unseen below. Then I thought of the food left uneaten on the sledge, and…of Providence again giving me a chance. The chance looked very small as the rope had sawed into the overhanging lid, my finger ends all damaged, myself weak.
Making a “great struggle,” Mawson inched up the rope, hand over hand. Several times he lost his grip and slipped back. But the rope held. Sensing that he had the strength for one final attempt, the explorer clawed his way to the lip of the crevasse, every muscle spasming, his raw fingers slippery with blood. “At last I just did it,” he recalled, and dragged himself clear. Spent, he lay by the edge of the chasm for an hour before he recovered sufficiently to drag open his packs, erect the tent and crawl into his bag to sleep.

They don’t make them like that anymore.

J. Herbst
December 30, 2013 3:37 pm

Hi Guys,
seems nobodoy knows where the missing heat went to. But I know it! It’s here in Germany. Fifteen degrees C plus! Some flowers are starting to bloom.
And I checked the facts: The winds are comming from the south. Last year we run out of firewood in January, so I built a new shed for more stock – but in vain: I dont need it this winter.
My father, an experienced gardener, knows why it’s so warm: It’s because of the earthworms. They don’t like to go go down in the ground and stay short below surface. So the winter can’t come. They infected even the moles, so i see a lot of heaps on the lawn.
Seems those animals are disturbed by global change. And because of them a lot if polar ships got stuck. Welcome to Germany, the land of the real global warming. Come here and feel warm!

Iain Logan
December 30, 2013 3:43 pm

Great. More than 200 tons of fuel oil looks destined to be added to the already growing list of pollution.

December 30, 2013 3:44 pm

http://www.bisbos.com/images/everything_we_know.jpg
“Day 63: Make new banner to sum up all the scientific findings from the expedition so far”.

jones
December 30, 2013 3:45 pm

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