TS Andrea, the first named Atlantic storm of the season continues to organize, but so far has only maximum sustained winds of ~60mph. Florida will get quite a bit of rain in addition to winds. The real issue will be what happens after it crosses the Florida peninsula and re-emerges in the Atlantic. Right now tracking models suggest it will be hugging the coast closely, which will prevent much strengthening.
Latest radar image and tracking maps:
Click here to loop the image
Here’s the current satellite image.
Click image to animate it over several hoursThis tracking map is in high definition (updates every 3-4 hours, click to enlarge)
Track map in HiDef – click to enlarge:
Here is the latest NHC bulletin: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/
More…plus signup for free hurricane bulletins.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/tropical-cyclone/
Given the track I am failing to see how this could have started out as an Easterly Wave / ITCZ related event. If it is not related to these mechanisms it is not a Tropical Cyclone.
Well down here in Bradenton, just south of Tampa, we have had just under 4″ of rain and a gust to 21 MPH on my home weather station since midnight. All is well aside from the power flickers that killed my AC air handler motor and network connectivity ( just replaced the APC battery but did not re-install it yet,,,, lesson learned). Back up hurricane kit portable AC system works just fine in real world testing however. Just a half dozen tornado, radar, signatures within a few miles this AM, but no damage. Some areas have had some damage from the EF0-EF1 possible touch downs.
Just another day in paridise {sarc}
Good to see Gail Combs back online with us! You have been MIA >
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move more towards EAST .. go back to SEA.. not ready for tornado/thunderstorm/hurricane or TS
OssQss says:
June 6, 2013 at 11:24 am
” Just a half dozen tornado, radar, signatures within a few miles this AM, but no damage. Some areas have had some damage from the EF0-EF1 possible touch downs. ”
We had what appears to be one of these small tornadoes touch down briefly about 7/10 of a mile from my home in Venice. Some trees down on roofs and cars. Not so bad unless it was your house or car that got damaged. Lots of rain but as others here in Florida well know, it is always needed and part of the water cycle.
Anthony, thanks for the link to the NHC bulletin. In part it reads:
———————-
STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…
TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO AUCILLA RIVER…2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY…1 TO 2 FT
FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT…1 TO 2 FT
……………………….
My question is in this bulletin it would appear that the surge would be that above the normal tide level at the time. If I am correct in this then why would the storm surge with regards to TS Sandy at The Battery in NJ have been measured from the low tide level and the stated/claimed storm surge included the effect of high tide as well as a full moon which added several feet to the claimed surge? Where am I missing something? Or do I see it clearly?
Hopefully this bulletin is presenting conditions correctly as per my understanding and there was simply a minor error of several feet with regards to Sandy.
Eustace Cranch says:
June 6, 2013 at 9:55 am
Well said. Alarmists succeeded in making children terrified of hot summer days. They are now dutifully working on the entire list of weather events and who knows what else. “Some day children will not know what ordinary weather is.”
Looks like quite a slug of moisture is coming into south Florida, never mind sea level rise, She is gonna try to wash the inhabitants into Her ocean.
SUPERSTORM ANDREA!
We needed this rain, winter was very dry & windy!
Bill
beng says:
June 6, 2013 at 7:15 am
Oh no, tropical rain in June?
We’re doomed, I say. Dooooommmmeeeed.
——————————————————————————————-
Of course it’s global warming caused by CO2.
Was that on the news yet?
cn
James at 48 says:
June 6, 2013 at 9:53 am
Can you check the definition of tropical cyclone? I don’t think there’s any requirement about easterly waves or such whatnot. While that’s what the big Cape Verde hurricanes do, all you need for development is warm water, convection, some spin, and low shear.
A tropical storm is differentiated from an extratropical storm by a warm core (due to sinking air in the eye) and no frontal structure. I.e. the heat engine is vertical, driven by convection as opposed to horizontal, driven by cold air from poleward and warm air from the subtropics.
Early season storms tend to form in the GoM and Carribean, the Cape Verde waters are too cool now.
I think it’s time to say “good bye Andrea”. Her 15 minutes of fame seems to be over.
Her 15 minutes of fame maybe over but the east coast of the USA got a nice wetting. Always welcome in June, July and August when water shortages are a possible problem.
Well , the tornado warning for our area just expired but other cells and rain are possible through the night . We are also in the projected path for Andrea with strong winds predicted later . Unfortunately my house is surrounded with some large pines – none of which are on my property – that might topple if we get much more rain and strong winds .
Lots of well needed rain here in Northern Florida, but not much else. No tornadoes, etc. The storm is rather nice. The only thing I kind of wonder about is whether this year might be bad in terms of tropical weather. Looks like the last big band is about to leave this area now so its all looking good.
Peak determined sustained wind so far is 65 MPH.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al01/al012013.update.06062144.shtml?http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al01/al012013.public.005.shtml?
Weather.com did explain that this is the probable maximum sustained wind anywhere at surface level in the cyclone. Explained in other sources is that “sustained” in USA is defined as average for 1 minute. The official altitude for measuring or determining this is 10 meters above the surface.
I just had 2 links ending up lumped together for whatever reason. I attempt here to separate them:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al01/al012013.public.005.shtml?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al01/al012013.update.06062144.shtml?
Due respect to the “don’t believe the hype” crowd, any action out of the east will exacerbate the the situation from which we are still recovering.
The Northeast isn’t exactly prepped for yet another Nor’easter. This won’t be devastating. But plenty of folks will suffer yet another setback on the road to recovery from Sandy if this storm drops a few inches of rain and stirs up the surf as is currently forecast.
In New England and watching the track carefully. In the fall lows often intensify rapidly as they come across Cape Hatteras and get into the warm water of the Gulf Stream. Right now it is tracking West of the Gulf Stream over cold water.. This is good. In another post there is a significant warm temperature anomaly shown off Cape Hatteras. The water is warmer there representing potential energy. I am inclined to watch what happens to the track alignment and the Gulf Stream before I discount the possibility of it surprising us..
eyesonu said, on June 6, 2013 at 7:23 am:
> I don’t see how it’s holding together at all with the dry air to the west.
> http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/conuswv_loope.html
What I see in that video loop is the storm changing into an extratropical type storm.
@ur momisugly Mark Stoval — Did you make to Daytona okay?
Interestingly, it looks to be tracking NE faster than it’s rotation. Offshore to Hatteras warm water accumulation, so far, appears to remain, well, offshore. How long these dynamics dominate only time will tell…….
Looks like this baby will bring a good bit of rain to the eastern half of the eastern states over the next few days. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/zoom/Rainfall_Days_1-5.gif
Can we order her twin sister for the same song and dance in mid to late July?
I’m sorry this off topic here but……This morning it was predicted by the Met. Office that it would be sunny and the hottest day of the year here in (west) London…..since mid-morning it has rained on and off all the way through to late afternoon….I suppose that’s the best you can do when you buy a multi-million pound ‘laptop’ computer! ….(sarc)