TS Andrea, the first named Atlantic storm of the season continues to organize, but so far has only maximum sustained winds of ~60mph. Florida will get quite a bit of rain in addition to winds. The real issue will be what happens after it crosses the Florida peninsula and re-emerges in the Atlantic. Right now tracking models suggest it will be hugging the coast closely, which will prevent much strengthening.
Latest radar image and tracking maps:
Click here to loop the image
Here’s the current satellite image.
Click image to animate it over several hoursThis tracking map is in high definition (updates every 3-4 hours, click to enlarge)
Track map in HiDef – click to enlarge:
Here is the latest NHC bulletin: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/
More…plus signup for free hurricane bulletins.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/tropical-cyclone/
Typo alert; … “Florida will get quite a but of rain in addition to winds.”
We are used to being the butt of jokes however. 🙂
I have to drive through that mess to Daytona in a few hours. Thanks for the update.
REPLY: Typo fixed, thanks, Anthony
I live about 25 miles north of Tampa. We’ve had drought conditions here in Florida for the last several months, to the extent that the water nazis have tightened up on the restrictions, so the rain is welcomed.
Take care, Mark Stoval.
I just prayed for a safe journey for you. I hope God says, “Yes.”
**************
Thanks, A-th–y, for the great visuals. This website is SO COOL!
Let’s see if the McKibbernaut clears its throat.
Southeast farmers/Alabama farmers especially, really need rain. Radar looks like they’re getting some.
http://agfax.com/2013/06/03/alabama-dry-conditions-slow-planting/
http://agfax.com/ Much of the upper Midwest region has had flooding and are dealing with replanting.
Been trying to track down any evidence that urban aerosols steer hurricanes either away from or towards urban centres. But just lots of wacky government conspiracy stuff.
It’s well establish urban aerosols decrease hurricane intensity by quite a large amount.
I think urban aerosols steer hurricanes towards urban centers. So the effect of reduced urban aerosols is more intense landfalling hurricanes which are less likely to hit urban centers.
That’s not a storm. The UK gets 40 mph on an average day. Anything for a name that mob.
Up to 60mph this morning…
About the absolute worst thing a tropical storm, tropical depression, or even remnants of one can do is stall. That brings a reminder that wind damage is worst on the coast and gets most of the video attention from reporters in the storm, but that inland flooding can be devastating too.
Fortunately, it looks like Andrea won’t be hanging around anywhere.
About the second worse thing it can do is merge with an extratropical storm. While New England and the mid-Atlantic area will have a brief encounter, it may be interesting as we have a storm to interact with.
The water vapor image for the Gulf of Mexico shows a lot of dry air to the west of Andrea. Had this been a real hurricane, it would strangle the storm in hours. See http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFWV.JPG
The forecast discussion notes “ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS…BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.”
Poor thing really has no chance at greatness. I’m impressed it’s as strong as it is.
It is certainly keeping the temperatures cool here in mid NC (presently 66F @ 8:00am) We are already getting a bit of rain. Very welcome.
Yes – rain is good! Thank you, TS Andrea.
I hope it takes the western route. We can use the rain.
Here in my part of Georgia, we have had a fairly normal rainfall year, but the lakes could use a large dose of tropical moisture to get back to full pool from the droughts of the last few years. I hope it takes the north and west part of the track and gives us a few inches.
As long as they don’t get too strong, or stall, these weak tropical storms are very helpful when it comes to avoiding drought, when the summer sun is at its highest and evaporation is at its greatest. The worst drought I can remember in New England, peaking roughly in 1966, was largely due to a complete lack of dead and dying tropical storms passing over New England. That drought got so bad that Quabbin Reservoir, (Boston’s primary water supply,) sunk down to a level where cellar-holes in Greenwich, a town that was disincorperated and drowned when the reservoir was created, reappeared.
As we are right on the coast down here in Sarasota, I’m not sure hugging the coast is good thing. We need some rain, but we don’t need a flood.
Oh just as I typed that it stopped raining (for now).
Oh no, tropical rain in June?
We’re doomed, I say. Dooooommmmeeeed.
Ric Werme says:
June 6, 2013 at 4:50 am
=============
I don’t see how it’s holding together at all with the dry air to the west.
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/conuswv_loope.html
I am just south of Tampa Bay.
Lots of rain and winds mostly less than 30-40 mph so far. We, too, needed rain, but not this much in so short of time.
Coastal flooding along Tampa area will probably occur later near local high tide around 6:30pm today.
Looks like it will bring rain to most of east coast of US over next few days or so. As long as it doesn’t strengthen, that would probably be good.
NEATO!…Sarasota is getting some much needed rain…I have recorded about 0.75 inch today and about 1.5 inches the previous few days.
Related tweet from the President of the United States:
https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/341986237634211840
“As hurricane season begins, @SEEC is highlighting the #costsofclimate. How much does inaction cost you? Go here: http://OFA.BO/Bpv7v1”
Thank you WARMISTS! Your education of the public on the science climate change is just STUNNING! This is one of many the fruits of your considerable labor…
Hmmmph.
On vacation in the NE GA mountains. Rains, storms blowing through: can’t even got outside and go tubing or miniature golfing with the grandkids. 8<)
Stephen Richards says:
June 6, 2013 at 1:01 am
> That’s not a storm. The UK gets 40 mph on an average day. Anything for a name that mob.
Whatever you call it, it’s heading your way!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/150929.shtml?tswind120#contents
It’s a “storm” of some sort…it’s spawned some tornadic damage and flooding. That’s not an average day in the UK.
There’s always lots of bluster about hurricanes and tropical storms, and they certainly can be stressful, harmful, and damaging. But they are part of the water cycle for FL and portions of the SE US. If those events went away, it would be a bad thing for the water balance.
Tropical storm or cut off low?
Given the track I am failing to see how this could have started out as an Easterly Wave / ITCZ related event. If it is not related to these mechanisms it is not a Tropical Cyclone.
Well down here in Bradenton, just south of Tampa, we have had just under 4″ of rain and a gust to 21 MPH on my home weather station since midnight. All is well aside from the power flickers that killed my AC air handler motor and network connectivity ( just replaced the APC battery but did not re-install it yet,,,, lesson learned). Back up hurricane kit portable AC system works just fine in real world testing however. Just a half dozen tornado, radar, signatures within a few miles this AM, but no damage. Some areas have had some damage from the EF0-EF1 possible touch downs.
Just another day in paridise {sarc}
Good to see Gail Combs back online with us! You have been MIA >
Barack Obama @BarackObama
Verified account
This account is run by Organizing for Action staff. Tweets from the President are signed -bo.
move more towards EAST .. go back to SEA.. not ready for tornado/thunderstorm/hurricane or TS
OssQss says:
June 6, 2013 at 11:24 am
” Just a half dozen tornado, radar, signatures within a few miles this AM, but no damage. Some areas have had some damage from the EF0-EF1 possible touch downs. ”
We had what appears to be one of these small tornadoes touch down briefly about 7/10 of a mile from my home in Venice. Some trees down on roofs and cars. Not so bad unless it was your house or car that got damaged. Lots of rain but as others here in Florida well know, it is always needed and part of the water cycle.
Anthony, thanks for the link to the NHC bulletin. In part it reads:
———————-
STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…
TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO AUCILLA RIVER…2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY…1 TO 2 FT
FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT…1 TO 2 FT
……………………….
My question is in this bulletin it would appear that the surge would be that above the normal tide level at the time. If I am correct in this then why would the storm surge with regards to TS Sandy at The Battery in NJ have been measured from the low tide level and the stated/claimed storm surge included the effect of high tide as well as a full moon which added several feet to the claimed surge? Where am I missing something? Or do I see it clearly?
Hopefully this bulletin is presenting conditions correctly as per my understanding and there was simply a minor error of several feet with regards to Sandy.
Eustace Cranch says:
June 6, 2013 at 9:55 am
Well said. Alarmists succeeded in making children terrified of hot summer days. They are now dutifully working on the entire list of weather events and who knows what else. “Some day children will not know what ordinary weather is.”
Looks like quite a slug of moisture is coming into south Florida, never mind sea level rise, She is gonna try to wash the inhabitants into Her ocean.
SUPERSTORM ANDREA!
We needed this rain, winter was very dry & windy!
Bill
beng says:
June 6, 2013 at 7:15 am
Oh no, tropical rain in June?
We’re doomed, I say. Dooooommmmeeeed.
——————————————————————————————-
Of course it’s global warming caused by CO2.
Was that on the news yet?
cn
James at 48 says:
June 6, 2013 at 9:53 am
Can you check the definition of tropical cyclone? I don’t think there’s any requirement about easterly waves or such whatnot. While that’s what the big Cape Verde hurricanes do, all you need for development is warm water, convection, some spin, and low shear.
A tropical storm is differentiated from an extratropical storm by a warm core (due to sinking air in the eye) and no frontal structure. I.e. the heat engine is vertical, driven by convection as opposed to horizontal, driven by cold air from poleward and warm air from the subtropics.
Early season storms tend to form in the GoM and Carribean, the Cape Verde waters are too cool now.
I think it’s time to say “good bye Andrea”. Her 15 minutes of fame seems to be over.
Her 15 minutes of fame maybe over but the east coast of the USA got a nice wetting. Always welcome in June, July and August when water shortages are a possible problem.
Well , the tornado warning for our area just expired but other cells and rain are possible through the night . We are also in the projected path for Andrea with strong winds predicted later . Unfortunately my house is surrounded with some large pines – none of which are on my property – that might topple if we get much more rain and strong winds .
Lots of well needed rain here in Northern Florida, but not much else. No tornadoes, etc. The storm is rather nice. The only thing I kind of wonder about is whether this year might be bad in terms of tropical weather. Looks like the last big band is about to leave this area now so its all looking good.
Peak determined sustained wind so far is 65 MPH.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al01/al012013.update.06062144.shtml?http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al01/al012013.public.005.shtml?
Weather.com did explain that this is the probable maximum sustained wind anywhere at surface level in the cyclone. Explained in other sources is that “sustained” in USA is defined as average for 1 minute. The official altitude for measuring or determining this is 10 meters above the surface.
I just had 2 links ending up lumped together for whatever reason. I attempt here to separate them:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al01/al012013.public.005.shtml?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al01/al012013.update.06062144.shtml?
Due respect to the “don’t believe the hype” crowd, any action out of the east will exacerbate the the situation from which we are still recovering.
The Northeast isn’t exactly prepped for yet another Nor’easter. This won’t be devastating. But plenty of folks will suffer yet another setback on the road to recovery from Sandy if this storm drops a few inches of rain and stirs up the surf as is currently forecast.
In New England and watching the track carefully. In the fall lows often intensify rapidly as they come across Cape Hatteras and get into the warm water of the Gulf Stream. Right now it is tracking West of the Gulf Stream over cold water.. This is good. In another post there is a significant warm temperature anomaly shown off Cape Hatteras. The water is warmer there representing potential energy. I am inclined to watch what happens to the track alignment and the Gulf Stream before I discount the possibility of it surprising us..
eyesonu said, on June 6, 2013 at 7:23 am:
> I don’t see how it’s holding together at all with the dry air to the west.
> http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/conuswv_loope.html
What I see in that video loop is the storm changing into an extratropical type storm.
@ Mark Stoval — Did you make to Daytona okay?
Interestingly, it looks to be tracking NE faster than it’s rotation. Offshore to Hatteras warm water accumulation, so far, appears to remain, well, offshore. How long these dynamics dominate only time will tell…….
Looks like this baby will bring a good bit of rain to the eastern half of the eastern states over the next few days. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/zoom/Rainfall_Days_1-5.gif
Can we order her twin sister for the same song and dance in mid to late July?
I’m sorry this off topic here but……This morning it was predicted by the Met. Office that it would be sunny and the hottest day of the year here in (west) London…..since mid-morning it has rained on and off all the way through to late afternoon….I suppose that’s the best you can do when you buy a multi-million pound ‘laptop’ computer! ….(sarc)
The only people who have to worry are the fools that built on a flood plain.
Didn’t even disturb the Spanish Moss hanging from my ancient oak tree in Charleston, overlooking the Ashley River and Magnolia Gardens. http://www.magnoliaplantation.com/ Y’all stop by and we’ll drink a few mint juleps while we watch the 1830’s steamboat dock for the sea level to rise….
After Hugo in ’89, twern’t nuthin’….
Why, Mistah Butlah (8:44AM),
Ah would be dee-lighted (make mine a bowl of chocolate chip mint ice cream, though, please). Your suthuhn hospitality is exemplary.
Your grounds must be lovely. Glad all is calm out there.
Miss Janice
(out west)