UPDATE: Annan now suggests the IPCC “is in a bit of a pickle”, see below.
UPDATE2: Title has been changed to reflect Annan’s new essay, suggesting lying for political purposes inside the IPCC. Also added some updates about Aldrin et al and other notes for accuracy. See below.
Readers may recall there has been a bit of a hullabaloo at Andrew Revkin’s Dot Earth of the New York Times over the press release I first carried at WUWT, saying that I had “seized on it”.
Purveyors of climate doubt have seized on a news release from the Research Council of Norway with this provocative title: “Global warming less extreme than feared?”
I beg to differ with Andy’s characterization, as I simply repeated the press release verbatim without any embellishments. My only contribution was the title: Yet another study shows lower climate sensitivity. It turns out to the surprise of many that the subject of the press release was not peer reviewed, but based on previous cumulative work by the Norwegian Research Council. That revelation set Andy off again, in a good way with this: When Publicity Precedes Peer Review in Climate Science (Part One), and I followed up with this story demonstrating a lack of and a need for standards in climate science press releases by the worlds largest purveyor of Science PR, Eurekalert: Eurekalert’s lack of press release standards – a systemic problem with science and the media
It turns out that all of this discussion was tremendously fortuitous.
Surprisingly, although the press release was not about a new peer reviewed paper (Update: it appears to be a rehash and translation of a release about Aldrin et al from October), it has caused at least one scientist to consider it. Last night I was cc’d an exceptional email from Andrew Revkin forwarding an email (Update: Andy says of a comment from Dot Earth) quoting climate scientist James Annan, who one could call a member of the “hockey team” based on his strong past opinions related to AGW and paleoclimatology.
Andrew Revkin published the email today at the NYT Dot Earth blog as a comment in that thread, so now I am free to reproduce it here where I was not last night.
Below is the comment left by Andy, quoting Annan’s email, bolding added:
The climate scientist James Annan sent these thoughts by email:
‘Well, the press release is a bit strange, because it sounds like it is talking about the Aldrin et al paper which was published some time ago, to no great fanfare. I don’t know if they have a further update to that.
Anyway, there have now been several recent papers showing much the same – numerous factors including: the increase in positive forcing (CO2 and the recent work on black carbon), decrease in estimated negative forcing (aerosols), combined with the stubborn refusal of the planet to warm as had been predicted over the last decade, all makes a high climate sensitivity increasingly untenable. A value (slightly) under 2 is certainly looking a whole lot more plausible than anything above 4.5.’
And this is what many have been saying now and for some time, that the climate sensitivity has been overestimated. Kudos to Annan for realizing the likelihood of a lower climate sensitivity.
The leader of the “hockey team”, Dr. Michael Mann will likely pan it, but that’s “Mikey, he hates everything”. I do wonder though, if he’ll start calling James Annan a “denier” as he has done in other instances where some scientist suggests a lower climate sensitivity?
UPDATE: over at Annans’ blog, now there is this new essay expounding on the issue titled: A sensitive matter, and this paragraph in it caught my eye because it speaks to a recent “leak” done here at WUWT:
But the point stands, that the IPCC’s sensitivity estimate cannot readily be reconciled with forcing estimates and observational data. All the recent literature that approaches the question from this angle comes up with similar answers, including the papers I mentioned above. By failing to meet this problem head-on, the IPCC authors now find themselves in a bit of a pickle. I expect them to brazen it out, on the grounds that they are the experts and are quite capable of squaring the circle before breakfast if need be. But in doing so, they risk being seen as not so much summarising scientific progress, but obstructing it.
Readers may recall this now famous graph from the IPCC leak, animated and annotated by Dr. Ira Glickstein in this essay here:
Yes, the IPCC is “in a bit of a pickle” to say the least, since as Annan said in his comment/email to Revkin:
…combined with the stubborn refusal of the planet to warm as had been predicted over the last decade, all makes a high climate sensitivity increasingly untenable.
UPDATE 2: Annan also speaks about lying as a political motivator within the IPCC, I’ve repeated this extraordinary paragraph in full. Bold mine.
Note for the avoidance of any doubt I am not quoting directly from the unquotable IPCC draft, but only repeating my own comment on it. However, those who have read the second draft of Chapter 12 will realise why I previously said I thought the report was improved 🙂 Of course there is no guarantee as to what will remain in the final report, which for all the talk of extensive reviews, is not even seen by the proletariat, let alone opened to their comments, prior to its final publication. The paper I refer to as a “small private opinion poll” is of course the Zickfeld et al PNAS paper. The list of pollees in the Zickfeld paper are largely the self-same people responsible for the largely bogus analyses that I’ve criticised over recent years, and which even if they were valid then, are certainly outdated now. Interestingly, one of them stated quite openly in a meeting I attended a few years ago that he deliberately lied in these sort of elicitation exercises (i.e. exaggerating the probability of high sensitivity) in order to help motivate political action. Of course, there may be others who lie in the other direction, which is why it seems bizarre that the IPCC appeared to rely so heavily on this paper to justify their choice, rather than relying on published quantitative analyses of observational data. Since the IPCC can no longer defend their old analyses in any meaningful manner, it seems they have to resort to an unsupported “this is what we think, because we asked our pals”. It’s essentially the Lindzen strategy in reverse: having firmly wedded themselves to their politically convenient long tail of high values, their response to new evidence is little more than sticking their fingers in their ears and singing “la la la I can’t hear you”.
Oh dear oh dear oh dear…
Apologies for the repeat. Did not notice the last one had already gone up after some difficulties.
rgbatduke says:
February 1, 2013 at 2:53 pm
Actually, what he says (if you read it) is that the data is suggesting that it is less than 2. It’s not completely unreasonable for people to have a bit of inertia in their former opinions (and to cover their asses, and to hedge their bets) and not jump all the way from prior belief to exactly what the data says (Bayesian thinking supports this).
— Nope. I was correct in my earlier statement. Below is a direct quote from Annan himself:
“Yeah, I should probably have had a tl;dr version, which is that sensitivity is still about 3C.
The discerning reader will already have noted that my previous posts on the matter actually point to a value more likely on the low side of this rather than higher, and were I pressed for a more precise value, 2.5 might have been a better choice even then. But I’d rather be a little conservative than risk being too Pollyanna-ish about it.”
As I said before, Annan is *not* suggesting his best estimate of CS if less than 2… at least not yet.
Oh, and Nic Lewis responded to Annan’s criticisms of his estimate and returned with a value only 0.05 K higher, at 1.67 K per doubling. In other words, the gripes had little effect whatsoever.
For humor, I enjoy reading the English major Steve Mosher’s ramblings. So far in one post he has proclaimed himself the spokes person for the “lukewarmers” (whomever they may be) which cannot include Richard Lindzen since he supports too low of a climate sensitivity (<1c) and it cannot include Steve McIntyre because he supports Lindzen's position on climate change. Which is all rather confusing since he refers to some poll over at Climate Audit.
To be part of the "lukewarmer" Mosher cult you apparently cannot question the "consensus" view on the surface record, radiative physics, solar influences on the climate, climate models or anything but climate sensitivity. And you must fall within his pre-defined range or be banished. Apparently you change things from the inside by being an English major and not publishing anything in the scientific literature, who knew?
Just so people are aware Mosher is also a master of the strawman argument, religiously attacking everyone who does not support his self defined lukewarmer cult as a "Skydragon" skeptic. It all gets very old and boring.
The irony of all of this is neither Lindzen, Christy or Spencer supports his views on climate change let alone policy, yet he trumps them out as if they did to manipulate those who do not know any better.
Jimmy’s right. Did Steve let the domain lapse?
‘Annan also speaks about lying as a political motivator within the IPCC’
I know you go on to give the quote in bold, but am I the only one to think the above line makes it sound like you are accusing Annan of lying?
Mosher said;
Yet on both this blog and others, notably Tallbloke’s, one can often see extensive thoughts, discussions, physics and mathematics as the issues are explored. Hardly knee jerk contrarianism.
Nonsense. Its totally the other way around. Most warmists think the science is settled and are forever proclaiming it so. I have never heard a sceptic claim anything is settled.
Scepticism is the very essence of healthy science.
(If Richard Feynman had said that it would be a well known quote / saying).
Anthony, just a suggestion. Rather than having this as the Mosh-bashing thread, why don’t we WUWT readers have a poll on climate sensitivity. Not, obviously, to determine what the value *is* (only the IPCC could be that dumb) but to test Mosher’s statement “Most skeptics however are certain it is less than 1. they think their science is settled.”
Most of the WUWT readership are sceptically inclined, so (providing there is no mass influx of trolls) it would give a good measure of the bounds of scepticism, from ‘CO2 has no effect’ to ‘lukewarmers’.
Merely an idea.
@Jimbo. You said;
Sorry, but I completely disagree.
Their irrational and simplistic foolish fraudulent alarmism has led to the the weakening of many economies with the consequent impoverishment of many families and the destruction of large numbers of jobs. It has also led to a doubling in the cost of food along with needless starvation and death in some parts of the World.
I sincerely hope that the people and judicial systems of the West one day produce some sort of judicial investigation resulting in very long jail sentences for the key individuals such as Santer and Mann, and significant jail sentences for the rest, including many of the bewildered politicians that continue to blindly drive the global warming bandwagon.
Poor Mosher. He’s a Lukewarmer but communicates like an Alarmist. Think about it for a second. What characteristic do almost all Alarmists share? It is the inability to communicate. They are unable to state their position without the listener wanting to box their ears for it. Mosh is probably correct in the radiative whatever. So what? Why obsess about the exceedingly small subset of humanity who bickers about it? I blame his peer group. One just doesn’t save the world with a sneer on their face.
As for Keynes’ remark on ‘the facts’ it should be realised that changing facts are entirely compatible with TRUE theories, as such theories will, and must have, had they been employed and the data were available, predicted the changes both with regard to necessary conditions and resultant effects (if…then…). It is only when new data contradicts the the theory that a theorist must change his or her mind.
So called ‘confirmation’ does not justify dismisal of the sceptic but refutation positively obliges one to invite all, sceptics included, to offer replacement theories.
cui bono says:
February 2, 2013 at 4:22 am
“Anthony, just a suggestion. Rather than having this as the Mosh-bashing thread, why don’t we WUWT readers have a poll on climate sensitivity. Not, obviously, to determine what the value *is* (only the IPCC could be that dumb) but to test Mosher’s statement “Most skeptics however are certain it is less than 1. they think their science is settled.””
That poll would tell us nothing that refutes Mosher’s statement. I think that the sensitivity to CO2 is close enough to zero to be impossible to be determined experimentally or observationally. At the same time I don’t know WHY this is so. Why did the lower stratosphere dry out? Dunno. Is the Svensmark mechanism working? Dunno. And so on.
Mosher’s statement implies that people who think that the sensitivity is under 1 C also think the science is settled. Mosher’s statement does not apply to me. I just think that the last 15 years of stagnating temperatures SHOW that CO2 does not cause warming to any discernable extenct. Beenstock et al have analyzed the time series and come to the conclusion that there is no causation; the CO2AGW theory is not working as expected; that is sufficient for me to discard it.
I do NOT have to know what is the correct mechanism that drives temperatures to be able to come to this conclusion. Mosher’s statement is a non sequitor.
So – a contributor to the Zickfeld paper (on which the IPCC relied heavily) LIED to ‘help motivate political action’…
Politicians of all Western governments – TAKE NOTE. You’ve been conned – and we, the voters, are paying the price.
Start assembling your excuses…
This violates my 2013 New Year’s pledge, but…
Poptech says:
February 1, 2013 at 9:00 pm
I have no hostility towards English majors like Mosher. I do have a problem with those who take what he says seriously without knowing his background; Mosher’s educational background consists of BA’s in English Literature and Philosophy. His “scientific” background involves bringing MP3 players to market for Creative Labs as a marketing director.
—
Hmmm. Didn’t know that about SM. I had supposed that he had studied radiative heat transfer at the graduate level in college, like I did when when I was getting my Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering. Or advanced numerical analysis, computational fluid dynamics, partial differential equations, convective heat transfer, thermodynamics… He seems like a good guy, though, when he not ranting about skeptics.
OK…back to my New Year’s pledge…
@ur momisugly JoeldShore
You said ;
For your edification,
According to Physicist Bryce Johnson;
If we took the entire know reserves of fossil fuels and converted that all to co2 and put it all in the atmosphere in one go that would lead to a warming spike of 3 degrees which would very quickly drop.
The worst that man can do would be half a degree at best.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/10/27/bryce-johnson-limits-of-carbon-dioxide-in-causing-global-warming/
DirkH:
re your post at February 2, 2013 at 5:27 am.
Ditto.
Richard
Add me to the list that doesn’t think Annan’s statement is all that important. The wheels will come off the bandwagon when one of the major science bodies admits it was wrong and issues an apology. Until then we can take comfort in the small victories, however the war is far from being won.
The unrelenting lack of warming is the only thing keeping skeptics (and even lukewarmers) afloat. The rest of the world is not aware of the details of the science and the media explosion of “dirty weather” articles is having an effect on joe public.
As for Mosher … he comes across exactly the same as most alarmists. He uses appeals to authority and ad hominem attacks. It’s exactly like you hear on warmist blogs or the Guardian. For example, he states the temperature record is almost perfect while seemingly ignoring station siting problems, UHI, deforestation and lower atmospheric mixing due to man made structures just for starters. How can anyone take him seriously?
http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/1391/co2sensitivitylast545my.png
Bill Illis whats the source for this graf? this graf pretty much summs up what made me a sceptc when I looked at the long term temp/co2 record and as a engineer could not get it to fit with the “consensus” theory.This also shows that co2 concentration is far from the whole story I mean there is no way there could be a -+40 degree sensitivity, magnitude is way to big to make sense. I.e. somthing else is going on.
One other thing why does people assume that the feedback from co2 is static? I suspect it pushes the temp both ways with variable force depending on the temp, high temp negative feedback, low temp positive feedback.
Well, in the past, Annan did at least have the good sense to leave the lying to the professionals…
A value (slightly) under 2 is certainly looking a whole lot more plausible than anything above 4.5.’
###
Steven Mosher says
Lukewarmer.
Henry says
How long are you going to look at the actual measured black bars and figure out that the skeptics might be right and that we are heading down? It is a parabolic curve down. For one solar cycle (11 years) it is
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2013/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2013/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2013/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2002/to:2013/plot/gistemp/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2013/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2013/trend
cooling.
There is no more warming. Earth has started cooling down.
By my calculations we will keep on cooling until 2038
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
Mark my words. This whole AGW, LW AGW and CAGW is going to fall to bits and pieces. Within the next 4 years. Better change your T-shirt now.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/01/24/our-earth-is-cooling/
Double ditto Richard C and Dirk H sensitivity much less than one. Personally I think zero.
Steven Mosher says:
February 1, 2013 at 5:20 pm
Easy, Mr. Mosher: You haven’t shown anything to prove it’s unsafe–except you have completely misrepresented carbon dioxide in number 1 above by using a little c, a zero, and the number 2. It should be CO2 (carbon and two oxygen atoms), Steven, but then, you don’t have anything else right, either.
So burden of proof that additional CO2 is unsafe is still in your corner. I can’t find anything that shows CO2 at this or projected future levels is unsafe, so I have to conclude it IS safe.
However, I will list several huge benefits: Earth is greening up. Foodstuff production is up because of the additional “geoengineered” CO2. Trees grow about 30% faster now than they did 50 years ago. So since you completely ignore this fact, you aren’t an environmentalist at all–you aren’t willing to admit to any benefits at all because it would severely weaken your arguments of gloom and doom.
But here’s why I dwell on the “safety” aspect of your CAGW cult:
All you’ve been able to present, Steven, is a bunch of scaremongering from the same ilk that have caused the deaths of millions of people over the last several decades–one estimate as high as 500 million!
Now, if that’s the result of implementing your brand of scaremongering on a global scale, I’d say you are part of a HUGE problem, Mr. Mosher, and should be held accountable. You blather on and on about hypotheticals but the implementation of your beloved cult has been an unmitigated disaster for the human race, and there’s no relief in sight as long as you and others hold to such a facinorous cult.
You say you don’t like to talk about the politics of global warming, and now everybody can see why–because if you’d get out of your extremely myopic box of global warming, you’ll find the policies based on your cult are demonstrably and completely unsafe. Anything that reduces mankind’s ability to cope with life and causes numerous deaths should be charged to the perpetrators, and that includes scoundrels like YOU!
So yes, CO2 is safe. It is Lukewarmers like you who have made the world far less safe, especially for those least capable of coping with life. I’m cheering for CO2 as part of the solution; you are fighting it–the implications are clear.
Words cannot convey the measure of disrespect I have for people with such blatant disregard for human life.
HenryP says:
February 2, 2013 at 6:40 am
There is no more warming. Earth has started cooling down.
=======
I thought temps didn’t matter, it was all about feedbacks causing run away global warming.
/snark (<do I really need that)
S. Mosher, you are too fixated on radiative physics. In a control loop, the, say, 1.2 degrees could easily be cancelled out by clouds. Which Roy Spencer clearly has demonstrated.
So even though if radiative physics says, perhaps 1.2 degrees, (and it is logarithmic, where most of the warming has already taken place) , the system consists of many control loops, with couplings, and they are not linear; In other words; humanity cannot model the system today.
As time goes by now, it would not surprise me if the global temperature will curve downwards the next 20-30 years maybe half a degree or so.
And people will look back at this period of history, wondering why some very few people were so scared. And managed to scare the whole world with their computer models.
Lindzens words, more or less.
How about these?