UPDATE: Annan now suggests the IPCC “is in a bit of a pickle”, see below.
UPDATE2: Title has been changed to reflect Annan’s new essay, suggesting lying for political purposes inside the IPCC. Also added some updates about Aldrin et al and other notes for accuracy. See below.
Readers may recall there has been a bit of a hullabaloo at Andrew Revkin’s Dot Earth of the New York Times over the press release I first carried at WUWT, saying that I had “seized on it”.
Purveyors of climate doubt have seized on a news release from the Research Council of Norway with this provocative title: “Global warming less extreme than feared?”
I beg to differ with Andy’s characterization, as I simply repeated the press release verbatim without any embellishments. My only contribution was the title: Yet another study shows lower climate sensitivity. It turns out to the surprise of many that the subject of the press release was not peer reviewed, but based on previous cumulative work by the Norwegian Research Council. That revelation set Andy off again, in a good way with this: When Publicity Precedes Peer Review in Climate Science (Part One), and I followed up with this story demonstrating a lack of and a need for standards in climate science press releases by the worlds largest purveyor of Science PR, Eurekalert: Eurekalert’s lack of press release standards – a systemic problem with science and the media
It turns out that all of this discussion was tremendously fortuitous.
Surprisingly, although the press release was not about a new peer reviewed paper (Update: it appears to be a rehash and translation of a release about Aldrin et al from October), it has caused at least one scientist to consider it. Last night I was cc’d an exceptional email from Andrew Revkin forwarding an email (Update: Andy says of a comment from Dot Earth) quoting climate scientist James Annan, who one could call a member of the “hockey team” based on his strong past opinions related to AGW and paleoclimatology.
Andrew Revkin published the email today at the NYT Dot Earth blog as a comment in that thread, so now I am free to reproduce it here where I was not last night.
Below is the comment left by Andy, quoting Annan’s email, bolding added:
The climate scientist James Annan sent these thoughts by email:
‘Well, the press release is a bit strange, because it sounds like it is talking about the Aldrin et al paper which was published some time ago, to no great fanfare. I don’t know if they have a further update to that.
Anyway, there have now been several recent papers showing much the same – numerous factors including: the increase in positive forcing (CO2 and the recent work on black carbon), decrease in estimated negative forcing (aerosols), combined with the stubborn refusal of the planet to warm as had been predicted over the last decade, all makes a high climate sensitivity increasingly untenable. A value (slightly) under 2 is certainly looking a whole lot more plausible than anything above 4.5.’
And this is what many have been saying now and for some time, that the climate sensitivity has been overestimated. Kudos to Annan for realizing the likelihood of a lower climate sensitivity.
The leader of the “hockey team”, Dr. Michael Mann will likely pan it, but that’s “Mikey, he hates everything”. I do wonder though, if he’ll start calling James Annan a “denier” as he has done in other instances where some scientist suggests a lower climate sensitivity?
UPDATE: over at Annans’ blog, now there is this new essay expounding on the issue titled: A sensitive matter, and this paragraph in it caught my eye because it speaks to a recent “leak” done here at WUWT:
But the point stands, that the IPCC’s sensitivity estimate cannot readily be reconciled with forcing estimates and observational data. All the recent literature that approaches the question from this angle comes up with similar answers, including the papers I mentioned above. By failing to meet this problem head-on, the IPCC authors now find themselves in a bit of a pickle. I expect them to brazen it out, on the grounds that they are the experts and are quite capable of squaring the circle before breakfast if need be. But in doing so, they risk being seen as not so much summarising scientific progress, but obstructing it.
Readers may recall this now famous graph from the IPCC leak, animated and annotated by Dr. Ira Glickstein in this essay here:
Yes, the IPCC is “in a bit of a pickle” to say the least, since as Annan said in his comment/email to Revkin:
…combined with the stubborn refusal of the planet to warm as had been predicted over the last decade, all makes a high climate sensitivity increasingly untenable.
UPDATE 2: Annan also speaks about lying as a political motivator within the IPCC, I’ve repeated this extraordinary paragraph in full. Bold mine.
Note for the avoidance of any doubt I am not quoting directly from the unquotable IPCC draft, but only repeating my own comment on it. However, those who have read the second draft of Chapter 12 will realise why I previously said I thought the report was improved 🙂 Of course there is no guarantee as to what will remain in the final report, which for all the talk of extensive reviews, is not even seen by the proletariat, let alone opened to their comments, prior to its final publication. The paper I refer to as a “small private opinion poll” is of course the Zickfeld et al PNAS paper. The list of pollees in the Zickfeld paper are largely the self-same people responsible for the largely bogus analyses that I’ve criticised over recent years, and which even if they were valid then, are certainly outdated now. Interestingly, one of them stated quite openly in a meeting I attended a few years ago that he deliberately lied in these sort of elicitation exercises (i.e. exaggerating the probability of high sensitivity) in order to help motivate political action. Of course, there may be others who lie in the other direction, which is why it seems bizarre that the IPCC appeared to rely so heavily on this paper to justify their choice, rather than relying on published quantitative analyses of observational data. Since the IPCC can no longer defend their old analyses in any meaningful manner, it seems they have to resort to an unsupported “this is what we think, because we asked our pals”. It’s essentially the Lindzen strategy in reverse: having firmly wedded themselves to their politically convenient long tail of high values, their response to new evidence is little more than sticking their fingers in their ears and singing “la la la I can’t hear you”.
Oh dear oh dear oh dear…
J Martin says:
I am properly edified: I see that one can find claims on the internet that happen to match what one wants to believe. Your reason to believe that “Physicist Bryce Johnson” knows better than the rest of the scientific community…including those who actually publish in the field…besides the fact that he is telling you what you want to believe?
little polyp says:
Oh…Okay, I didn’t realize this was the new standard for public policy. Following that, I assume you are against spending any money whatsoever to combat terrorism? Do you think that geologists see a plane hitting a building and causing it to collapse as some sort of major geological event compared to ones that have happened over the entire geologic history of the Earth?
What exactly do you care about if this is your standard?
So what if this news adds to the huge body of evidence against the alarmist point of view… all I hear from world leaders is retrenchment, not retractions.
Did you hear the US President in his state of the union speech? Hear him backing down on statist/warmist rhetoric? How about from NY mayor Michael Bloomberg?
Steven Mosher says:
February 1, 2013 at 6:01 pm
“1. We are not prepared for the storms and weather of our grandparents. ”
Just because I don’t have ‘collision insurance’ for my 10 year old car doesn’t mean I’m not prepared for the inevitable fender bender.
Sometimes we simply make the decision to accept the losses when and if they occur. Of course we lie to ourselves about the fact that we took a decision to accept the losses when and if they occur and then demand that the losses be socialized. But that’s a different story.
Incurring storm damage losses is a fact of life. Anytime winds are going to be in the 60+ MPH range losses of zero become improbable.
John F. Hultquist says:
February 1, 2013 at 1:06 pm
Many years ago my high school math teacher set us to “squaring the circle” and “trisecting an angle” – two of the three classical problems. Thus, when James Annan writes . . .
“they are the experts and are quite capable of squaring the circle before breakfast if need be”
The problem the ancient greeks had was to construct a square equal to the area of a given circle using only straightedge and compass. The problem was finally proved to be impossible in 1882.
It can be done, but only by ” cheating”- not following the Greek geometers’ requirement of using just a straightedge and compass.
Create a wheel of the same size as the circle and which is half as wide as the circle’s radius.
Cover the side in wet paint and make it revolve over a flat surface exactly once.
This leaves a painted rectangle with the same surface as the circle.
Finish up by squaring this rectangle (this step can be done even with straightedge and compass).
So if “they are the experts and are quite capable of squaring the circle before breakfast if need be”, they are admitted cheats.
This is rather amusing because I argued with Annan that models were running generally too hot back when McKitrick/McIntyre’s paper came out. He said then (incorrectly) that I didn’t understand and argued that models were ok.
It looks to me like two more years of non-extreme data may have him changing his mind.
RockyRoad says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/01/encouraging-admission-of-lower-climate-sensitivity-by-a-hockey-team-scientist/#comment-1214671
Henry says
Nice comment. I liked that. Don’t expect an answer from Steven Mosher, though. He ducks and hides for the skeptics who know too much.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/01/24/our-earth-is-cooling/
One fellow wrote: “‘When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?’ ― John Maynard Keynes”
Another fellow answered: “Never quote Keynes… ever. The sooner he is buried in the history books the better. What an idiot.”
Murray N. Rothbard: “There is one good thing about Marx: he was not a Keynesian.”
🙂
@Mosh
Huge respect towards you for your approach and hard work and sharing and everything but….
Suppose one feature of the climate is a very strong negative feedback, for example from the water cycle shifting energy from the surface by evaporation and convection high into the atmosphere where much of it gets radiated into space, such that a higher surface temperature leads to more evaporation leading to more surface cooling and more radiation to space.
If this is the case, and I believe that the relatively narrow range of surface temperatures during recent geological time (last 300 million years) requires some strong negative feedback mechanism, then whatever hypothetical temperature effect CO2 has will be tempered by this feedback, which need have nothing at all to do with CO2, because climate is a system, where the whole affects the whole, and components cannot be isolated, modelled, and reassembled into a faithful representation. So, if this, or something like it is the case, global temperature sensitivity to CO2 is not actually a useful concept at all. Does this make me a lukewarmer, a sceptic, or a ddddenier ?
Wikeroy says
As time goes by now, it would not surprise me if the global temperature will curve downwards the next 20-30 years maybe half a degree or so.
henry says
how right you are … without any calculations? How did you figure these values?
Looking carefully at my graphs, you will note with me that over the next 8 years or so, we will be cooling down at the maximum rate, of around -0.04 degrees C globally per year. That is ca. -0.3 degrees C down on the maxima by 2020. Plus at least another -0.2 from 2020 to 2038. And I think earth average temps. (means) will follow this trend because it has already used up most of its reserves. So the following two decades will be cold. Very cold. Cold enough for arctic to start up freezing again, completely. But if you count back 88 years you will always realize that we have been there before and we all came through…
So there is really nothing new under the sun. Everything is as it has always been. Natural global warming and natural global cooling have been with us, like, forever, or at least for as far back as I can see….
Don’t worry about the carbon. Start worrying (a bit) about the cold…
1. Yes
2. Very safe.
3. The Earth carried out this experiment at far higher levels of co2 in the past and you are still here. In fact the biosphere has been greening including the Sahel.
Don’t believe me, see it for yourself.
http://youtu.be/P2qVNK6zFgE
J Martin says:
Wow…You seriously think Tallbloke’s blog is a notable example of that?!?
What it is an example of is people who don’t understand physics and mathematics pretending they understand it better than the real scientists. Here is one example of the level of nonsense there; Stephen Wilde, who apparently considers himself an expert on the ideal gas law (so much so that he lectures about how climate scientists have ignored its implications) doesn’t even understand the difference between number of particles an density ( http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/01/13/stephen-wilde-greenhouse-gases-and-the-ideal-gas-law/ ):
And, when someone tries to explain this simple basic point, he just digs himself deeper into circles of nonsense.
J Martin says:
February 2, 2013 at 4:26 am
I agree 100%. Why should we let the warm-mongers off with it?
D.B. Stealey says:
February 2, 2013 at 12:37 am
I’ve met Steven Mosher a few times, and I must say he is not like he comes across in his comments. He’s a nice guy, and he’s not not arrogant or condescending like he appears here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
When someone is peaches and cream to your face and claws and teeth to your back, one is best served not to turn one’s back on him. For every person he is “nice” to face to face, he influences thousands with his written word. Hence the saying “the pen is mightier than the sword”.
The damage that Mosher does with his pen is extensive, and how nice a guy he is in person is of little importance.
day by day
What I am going to ask, and still not qualified, is about the adjusted surface temperature being pretty correct within .2C. Mosher says, : Well, its pretty easy to test. I take a random sample of around 300 stations. I construct an estimate for the temperature at other locations. i used my sample of 500 to predict the other locations.
Guess what? damn, those estimates of out of sample cases are always bang on.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The statement isn’t worth arguing with because it is constructed of statements too vague to be called science. What does “always” mean? They did it once, twice, 50, 500 times? They got it right each and every time? What does “bang on” mean? Within 10 degrees? 1 degree? 0.000001 degrees? If you make the acceptable error range large enough, you can make the statement true. I took the temperature of the entire earth in my living room this morning, and it is always bang on…. +/- 100 degrees. See how easy it is to be right?
Alex says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/01/encouraging-admission-of-lower-climate-sensitivity-by-a-hockey-team-scientist/#comment-1214644
Henry says
there are just too many variables that have not been tested
try to understand this
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2011/08/11/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation-11-Aug-2011/
and it follows from my observations
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
that earth just follows natural forces, mostly by the conversion of radiation to heat by the UV falling into the oceans.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/01/24/our-earth-is-cooling/
I will believe the corner has been turned when the science is sufficiently “settled” that billions are redirected away from a few academics / IPCC etc. and towards the many millions that don’t even have clean water. Until then Europe (for example) is and will continue to be a financial basket case pouring money down the drain in an arrogant attempt to counter the natural cycles of our sun. Please God we never forget this is not just an interesting scientific exercise.
Steve Mosher Says …
I dont think …
————————-
Now, I have been accused of cherry picking in the past and I do my best to not do that anymore, but I couldn’t resist this one.
Sorry Steve.
Mosher, like all of us, is giving his best estimate as to what is going on with climate. He’s the gift that keeps on giving, which is not to compare him to venereal disease. LOL. He’s making you all think and defend your positions. I don’t happen to agree with him, but he’s mostly elevated the discourse in my experience and done it without being unduly ideological or dictatorial. The problem is with the intractable true believers at RealClimate, SkepticalScience and DeSmog blog, not with people like Mosher, who readily engage and defend their positions.
OT, but has anyone looked at Climate Audit recently?
It was there this morning, but it now seems to lead to a page from “aplus.net”.
Jimmy Haigh says:
February 2, 2013 at 2:32 am
“Off topic but what’s happened to Climate Audit? Some company called “Aplusnet” is now using the URL “http://climateaudit.org/ ”
I often used climete audit as a kind of a springboard to other climate sites, and since this morning get a website with the name “Aplusnet” if i try to go there , and it looks like it is offering the domain name for sale or something , does anyone know if Stev’s site has been hacked , or if he has let his registration expire and packed up and gone to the moon or something. ????
joeldshore says:
February 1, 2013 at 6:20 pm
There is nothing particularly new about what Annan is saying now…It is what he has been saying since about 2006: http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2006/03/climate-sensitivity-is-3c.html He believes that climate sensitivity is quite well-constrained and that claims that it is much greater or much less than 3 C are both worthy of ridicule. Some other scientists are doubtful that (particularly the upper boundary) is really as well-constrained as Annan believes it to be.
Unfortunately, 3 C…or even 2 C per CO2 doubling…is plenty high enough to mean that we are going to have to leave a lot of the fossil fuels in the ground (or sequester the emissions) if we don’t want to significantly alter the global climate and sea levels. It just means that fatalistic notions that it is already too late to do anything are probably just that…too fatalistic. (Even a sensitivity of 1 or 1.5 C would mean we are going to have to leave a lot of them in the ground, particularly as it seems that we will continue to find enough fossil fuels to really shoot CO2 to quite astronomical levels if we burn them all.)
———————————————————————-
Damage control, Joel?
It’s strange that you claim there’s nothing new in what Annan’s saying. It is indeed well known that his position has been that CS=3C for some time. Other than speculating that perhaps you haven’t read the material carefully, I’m at a loss to explain how you missed his quote at Dot Earth, “A value (slightly) under 2 is certainly looking a whole lot more plausible than anything above 4.5.”.
Also, are you ignoring Annan’s blog post? “Interestingly, one of them stated quite openly in a meeting I attended a few years ago that he deliberately lied in these sort of elicitation exercises (i.e. exaggerating the probability of high sensitivity) in order to help motivate political action.” In a way you are correct; it is not in fact news to me or others who have spent time going through the climate-gate emails, or who have examined the Soon / Balinuas debacle, the blog discussions about IPCC reliance on grey literature, or any of the other sordid examples of chinanery surrounding climate science. Still, an open and matter of fact admission of scientists deliberately lying about sensitivity to motivate political action from an important and respected climate scientist might be news to the mainstream folks who don’t bother to investigate these things closely.
Finally, let me note that I really wasn’t alarmed about sea level rise back when the IPCC was projecting 4.5C warming, and I’m not alarmed about it at a 2C projected warming either. I’m certainly not going to start writing my Congressman in a panic now that people are beginning to realize that such projections weren’t credible. If anything, I think this demonstrates that a lot of hoke has been passed off as real science, and that we ought to step back and reassess what errors in our socio-political methodology led us to this in the first place.
And, of course, you have been reminded before this is a curve, with those spectral peaks, not discrete points … also, you would be better off describing these effects in the EM field domain as opposed to ‘photon’; maybe you can otherwise explain how a simple dipole antenna works (as certainly the atoms within say an H2O or C02 molecule respond) with ‘photons’ and coupling and such?
.
Mark Bofill says:
And, this differs dramatically from this statement that James made in March 2006 ( http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2006/03/climate-sensitivity-is-3c.html ) how exactly:
That statement is perfectly compatible with his current statement that “A value (slightly) under 2 is certainly looking a whole lot more plausible than anything above 4.5” since a value above 4.5 C would be more than 3 standard deviations away and a value of slightly under 2 would only be a little more than 2 standard deviations away.
I’m not sure what you think this illustrates. That debacle is illustrative of how willing the “AGW skeptic” community is willing to tolerate bad and deceptive science when it tells them what they want to hear.
Point being missed here, I think, It *was* necessary, at some point, however, to have studied the effects as EM energy transmission through the atmosphere, both optical (for, say, missile launch signatures) and ‘RADAR’ as the frequencies used progressed higher and higher, initially as defense activities and eventually as commercial, civilian activities (weather satellites observing both LW and SW IR wavelengths and DBS satellites for instance)
I’m sure you’re aware of “rain fade”, if you’ve ever subscribed to satellite TV (e.g. Dish Network) and no doubt witnessed the evening newscast with nighttime ‘cloud cover’ depicted?
Atmospheric Transmission (transparency) vs frequency graph:
http://www.udel.edu/Geography/DeLiberty/Geog474/spectrum.jpg
.