New ebook: The Manmade Global Warming Challenge

Global Warming
Global Warming (Photo credit: mirjoran)

Guest post by Bob Tisdale


Many bloggers are very active in the climate change debate around the globe. In advance of an expected intensification of that debate this year, I’ve written a new essay about the natural warming of the global oceans. It’s titled “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge”. That essay and an introduction are published in .pdf format so that interested persons can download them and refer to them at their leisure. I hope many bloggers will find them useful in their debates.

For those new to this discussion, the essay includes my easiest-to-understand descriptions of how strong El Niño events are responsible for the vast majority of the warming of sea surface temperatures over the past 3 decades. It’s provided after a moderately complex description that includes links to animations. The intent of the simple description is to reinforce the more-detailed explanation. That is, to show and tell what I’ve just shown and told. The essay also includes discussions of the natural warming of ocean heat content, including a couple of the cartoon-like illustrations from my ebook Who Turned on the Heat?


The global warming debate should intensify in 2013. In his inaugural address, President Obama promised the people of the United States:

We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.

The draft of the upcoming U.S National Climate Assessment Report was recently released for comment by the U.S. National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC). Its Executive Summary portrays manmade global warming/climate change like most political documents of its kind; that is, it characterizes the climate model-dependent hypothesis of manmade global warming as being based in sound science and it portrays recent weather events as products of greenhouse gas-driven climate change.

Further, NCADAC is supported by NOAA, who recently published their State of the Climate report for 2012. NOAA, unfortunately, has difficulty determining something as simple as what years are La Niña years by their own definition. I suspect NOAA will correct their mistake sometime in the future, but with less fanfare than they provided for the erroneous headline that “2012 was also warmest ‘La Niña year’ on record”.

Later this year, politicians from around the globe will negotiate the language of the Summary for Policymakers of the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and they will unleash it upon the world shortly thereafter.

As a result, mainstream media coverage of global warming and climate change—or whatever new catch-phrase they choose to use—should reach fevered levels in 2013. I plan to be more active in the discussions this year, spending time at magazine, newspaper and TV news blogs around the globe in an effort to reach a wider group of people.


To aid in those endeavors, I’ve published an illustrated essay titled “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge”. If you’re a frequent visitor here at Climate Observations and at WattsUpWithThat, you’ve already heard my message: ocean heat content data since 1955 and satellite-era sea surface temperature data indicate the oceans have warmed naturally. I’ve also produced a much smaller teaser—“Introduction to the Manmade Global Warming Challenge”—which will hopefully grab readers’ attentions and prompt them into downloading the full presentation. The introduction and the essay were created in PowerPoint, then converted to pdf. The text should be easy to read, and I’ve formatted the graphs with the thicker curves than I normally use. The “Manmade Global Warming Challenge” is a large document, 42MB, due mostly to the black background. (With a white background the document in pdf form is only 4MB.) There are 180+ slides, with lots of information and illustrations, and it reads very quickly.


The full essay titled “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge” is here (42MB).

The shorter introduction is here (4MB).

Please feel free to provide links to “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge” in your discussions around the blogosphere.


I’ve searched sea surface temperature records and ocean heat content data for more than 4 years (more than 3 years for the ocean heat content data), and I can find no evidence of an anthropogenic global warming signal. That is, the data indicate the warming of the global oceans was caused by Mother Nature, not anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

I’ve recently published my e-book (pdf) about the phenomena called El Niño and La Niña. It’s titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Niño and La Niña events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 31 years. Because land surface air temperatures simply mimic and exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well. The book is the product of years of research of the ocean heat content data and satellite-era sea surface temperature data that’s available to the public via the internet. It presents how the data accounts for its warming—and there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases. None at all.

Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Every Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… …Well Just about Everything. The Updated Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.

Please buy a copy. Credit/Debit Card through PayPal. You do NOT need to open a PayPal account. Simply scroll down to the “Don’t Have a PayPal Account” purchase option. It’s only US$8.00.


Note: Bob humorously advised in an email that this is the first essay he has written that didn’t have an illustration, I couldn’t accept that, so I included the one illustration that has never appeared on WUWT (though often suggested) as an appropriate foil. – Anthony

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February 1, 2013 8:16 am

Thanks, Anthony.

February 1, 2013 8:28 am

Like cornered rats,the closer their scheme comes to failure,the more they squeal. Now is the time when they (eco-cultists) are the most dangerous,as they will do and say anything to maintain their place at the gubermint trough.

Mark Bofill
February 1, 2013 8:31 am

Thanks so much Bob, looking forward to reading it.
Anthony – LOVE the illustration. Vive l’ AGW!

February 1, 2013 8:44 am

Instead of writing an article.. why don you do some science and publish it???

February 1, 2013 9:13 am

I very easy to follow presentation. I used to wonder how you discounted man made warming. Now it is clearly shown. Thank you for that.

February 1, 2013 9:24 am

I think the political discussion going forward needs to get beyond the basics of the science, which is looking more unsettled all the time, and look instead at the political and environmental ramifications of the “solutions” that are currently being implemented. Most in Europe are aware of the costs associated with the renewable energy mandates for things like electricity. Fuel poverty is hitting consumers hard even though the wholesale costs for fossil electric generation are lower. But the biggest environmental and political impact comes from the biofuels mandate. It has driven up prices as the grocery store in developed countries modestly but has double the commodity price many grains. The resultant higher wheat prices may have triggered the “Arab Spring” revolution in north Africa where the cost of food consumes a substantial portion of income. Mandated bio-diesel contents for transportation fuels are also pushing destruction of tropical rain forests to meet demand.
There has been a call to follow the precautionary principle regarding CO2 emissions but it presumes that the solutions that are mandated will have benign consequences. I think given the greater uncertainty in the “settled science” its time to apply the Hippocratic oath used in medicine, first do no harm.

February 1, 2013 9:34 am

re your comment at February 1, 2013 at 8:44 am
Instead of writing nonsense as a post on WUWT from behind the cowardly shield of anonymity, why don’t you learn enough science to recognise good science when it is put in front of you???

February 1, 2013 11:20 am

re your comment at February 1, 2013 at 8:44 am
Bob does excellent science, much of which is in the books and articles offered here. Not only that, appearance on WUWT is effectively publication, with the difference that we all get the chance to peer-review in real-time. Thousands of reviewers, not just the usual 3. You could make a contribution yourself 🙂 .

Erik Christensen
February 1, 2013 11:57 am

Whats up with that silly Paypal password thingie? – no such thing with Anthony’s “shameless plug” or anywhere else I have used Visa Card via Paypal
REPLY: I don’t know, nothing has changed that I am aware of. Try deleting cookies/clearing cache – Anthony

Erik Christensen
February 1, 2013 12:29 pm

Not a cookie problem, my donation to the shameless zoomed right though this minute, same Visa Card, same Me, same Google Chrome browser on same PC – the only difference is that it did not snow outside a minute ago?…and I’m out of coffee!
Never mind, I’ll find a way – Thanks much for reply and have a nice weekend all!

February 1, 2013 12:45 pm

Erik Christensen says: “Whats up with that silly Paypal password thingie?”
Erik, if you scroll down past the Paypay password request, you should be able to purchase with a credit card.

February 1, 2013 12:48 pm

Erik Christensen, I should have scrolled down before replying. Apparently you resolved the problem.

Jeff Mitchell
February 1, 2013 6:39 pm

I loved the photo of the swimwear over the years. Very cute and funny. My only observation is that the time order of the swim suits only works if you consider the outfits as staying dry. Evaporation from large wet suits would have amplified the cold of the eighteenth century.

Goode 'nuff
February 1, 2013 10:17 pm

Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the mini skirt and peekini bikini designers were in charge of government budgetary matters?
Heh, that reminds me of more proof of global warming I saw in this remote state park in the Ozarks that has a waterfall. A pretty young lady was swimming nude in the park. The park attendant came by and said, “Miss, there’s no swimming allowed here.” The gal said, “Why didn’t you tell me that before I got all undressed?” He sheepishly replied, “Oh, there’s no law against undressing.”

Peter Miller
February 1, 2013 11:42 pm

The photo top right is the most compelling argument I have yet seen, or heard, in support of the dramatic consequences of AGW.
Perhaps the IPCC should adopt it as their logo.
Mann, or Hansen, could write a peer reviewed paper about it – that would certainly be more relevant than their usual BS.
And let’s not forget Pachy, not really his style of soft porn, but at least he could relate to it whilst relaxing in his luxurious mansion, funded by his climate ‘research’ organisation TERI.

John Marshall
February 2, 2013 3:19 am

42Mb downloaded to be read later. Many thanks.

Erik Christensen
February 2, 2013 5:44 am

PayPal is country dependent, but it’s no biggie, problem resolved
1) Pay with my PayPal account
2) Sign up to a PayPal account and Pay with a debit or credit card
1) Pay with my PayPal account
2) Pay with a debit or credit card, or Bill Me Later
1) 1) Pay with my PayPal account
2) (Optional) Sign up to PayPal to make your next checkout faster
..and Thank You for all your work and the free pdf

February 2, 2013 9:03 am

Thanks, Bob.
I have published links and a very short teaser in my climate and weather pages.

Lawrie Ayres
February 2, 2013 1:10 pm

The web is such a marvellous thing. Consider where we would be if the Watts and Tisdales of this world could not make their knowledge available to the rest of us so readily. The AGW mob would have won this “debate” years ago because we would have relied on the unbiased MSM to report the findings of those illustrious and unchallenged scientific bodies that are beyond reproach. You know the ones UEA and Penn State, NOAA and NASA and our own BoM and CSIRO. Dodgy all. Al would have triumphed and been a multi billionaire trading carbon credits and we poor mugs would be poorer and unable to afford A/C or cars even. Thank God for the internet and dedicated pursuers of truth.

S. Meyer
February 2, 2013 4:49 pm

Downloaded and very much appreciated! Thank you, Bob, this is wonderful, so easy to read and understandable.
Here are some layman’s thoughts, hopefully not too far OT:
About ocean heat
I have read a lot about the fact that there has been no (statistically significant) warming for some 15-19 years, depending on what temperature series one considers. However, places like “skeptical science” are full of statements claiming that this just is not so. Earth, according to them, continues to get warmer at about the same rate.
It seems their argument relies mostly on temperature increases seen in very deep ocean layers (700-2000 meters). Those layers have continued to show warming. The argument goes something like this: deep layers of the ocean are warming, therefore the whole globe is warming.
Here is an analogy:
Consider a bathroom with a bathtub full of water. The water is at 25 degrees, too cold for a bath, so you have the somewhat impractical the idea to turn on the electric heater. You put two thermometers in the bathtub, one just under the water-surface and one at the bottom, and, just for fun, you also suspend one from the ceiling. That heater hums away at full blast, soon the room is toasty as a sauna and getting hotter. The water-surface thermometer also shows a nicely increasing temperature. It is now at 30 degrees and rising. Unfortunately, the bottom thermometer still shows only 25.5 degrees. The heat is just not equilibrating very fast. So, you get one of these little battery-operated aquarium pumps. You install it, so that it picks up some water from the bathtub surface and releases it near the bathtub bottom. The pump is not very efficient, but you see some movement. Bottom water is now 27 degrees and climbing. 
Then, predictably, the heater shorts out. The air in the room is still warm, but not getting warmer. The surface bathtub thermometer still shows about 30 degrees, but is not getting warmer. But, weirdly, the bottom thermometer continues to show slowly increasing temperatures. The repairman you called about the heater tells you that the heater is working properly, because, if it didn’t, how would you explain the increasing temperatures on the bathtub bottom? (Hint: the pump is still on..)

David Jones
February 3, 2013 3:01 pm

Erik Christensen says:
February 2, 2013 at 5:44 am
PayPal is country dependent, but it’s no biggie, problem resolved
1) Pay with my PayPal account
2) Sign up to a PayPal account and Pay with a debit or credit card
1) Pay with my PayPal account
2) Pay with a debit or credit card, or Bill Me Later
1) 1) Pay with my PayPal account
2) (Optional) Sign up to PayPal to make your next checkout faster
I have a paypal account which is blocked with a NIL balance and no outstanding issues. I cannot close it because it is blocked! I have instructed them to close my account. THEY WILL NOT CLOSE IT “BECAUSE IT IS BLOCKED.” With any real bank an instruction to close an account with a NIL balance would be acted upon within 24 hours.
To unblock it I have to login to my paypal account and confirm details of user name, password and bank account, which they “need” to verify by my activating a payment to paypal!..
That bank account was with RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland (which I closed when Gordon Brown’s gubbermint nationalised RBS in 2008). I am not prepared to use a bank of which the gubbermint owns 86%!
I cannot change any details until my paypal account is unblocked!! We’ve been going round this loop since for ever!
I will NEVER use paypal again. i DO NOT TRUST THEM.
Mods: Probably OT! Sorry! Rant over! You may gather I am up to here with paypal!!

S. Meyer
February 3, 2013 4:16 pm

@David Jones
Agree! I have decided to never, ever use PayPal again. Tom: any other way to get you book?

john robertson
February 3, 2013 6:37 pm

Thanks Bob another good read, as for the debate picking up in 2013, the team would have to debate for the first time, it starts at the science is settled, moved to the science is confusing and is now moving to “We were mistaken in our unwarranted certainty.”
Debate is heresy. As is admitting I don’t know.
2013 is going to be a bad year for team climatology.

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