Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue has released the latest hurricane frequency data updated through September 2012 showing a continuation of depressed global major hurricane numbers.
He announced on Twitter today:
Still going down, global major hurricane numbers during last 12-months: 15 (hint, it’s negative PDO climate change)
The data since 1978 with trends:
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the North Atlantic for this year compared to other years — the season just went over 100 with long-lived fish-storm Nadine. During the last 30-years, the season has averaged an ACE of about 104. However, with recent unfavorable MJO conditions, Nadine was the only show in town (helpful when GOES-13 is on the fritz).
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy dissipated by tropical cyclones worldwide this year (2012) is near-normal across the board from the Northern Hemisphere, and was below normal for the Southern Hemisphere during the last season (Fall 2011-Spring 2012). Globally, ACE is below normal for this year.
See more at Maue’s website here.
rgbatduke
THANKYOU!
I think making that point on a warmist blog was the first time I got one of my comments “disappeared”. I raised that point repeatedly for years, but gave up trying to get broad attention to it. I think it would make a GREAT post. Hint. Hint. Your comment would need very little work to become a post. Hint. Hint. Please?
eqibno says:
October 1, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Based on the greatly reduced hurricane landfalls and tornadic activity, I am sure that the insurance companies have greatly reduced premiums on related property-damage policies……Sure they have…
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Will there be hurricane landfalls? Sure. Always have been. Always will. Will there be tornados? Sure. Always have been. Always will. Will Man cause them? Nah. They don’t increase the rates for ships sailing or planes flying through the Bermuda Triangle, do they? If there was any truth to the myth (remember, we’re talking about evil capitalist) they would. The first insurance company that charges a premium based on the myth of CAGW will lose customers to those who don’t. If any premiums have gone up it’s only because of the increased development of coastal or other flood prone regions.
Gunga Din says:
October 1, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Let’s see, what will the defense of Hansen and CAGW be?
[…]
4. ????
Easy. It is well known hurricanes leave a trail of cool sea surface behind. With extremely low ACE of late there is nothing to remove that heat from the oceans. So it can go nowhere but to the pipeline, just to come back later with a vengeance. It is certainly worse than we thought.
There, you have it.
Dr. Maue is muddying the waters with facts:
2 Oct: Bloomberg: Jason Plautz: Presidential Showdown Evokes Last Call for Climate Debate
Nine environmental organizations Friday delivered more than 160,000 petitions to Jim Lehrer urging him to ask a question about climate change during Wednesday’s first presidential debate…
350.org, a climate advocacy organization founded by author and activist Bill McKibben will put up a billboard in Denver this week asking for more climate talk. Friends of the Earth Action and Forecast the Facts teamed up for a social media campaign called “Climate Silence” to urge more talk on the trail, and beyond…
And 350.org, among other actions, has organized a national speaking tour led by McKibben that launches the day after the election, called “Do the Math.”
The post-election campaign builds off an article by McKibben, published in Rolling Stone, that uses math to explain why the world must now transition to green energy. The crux of his argument is that countries can only burn 565 more gigatons of carbon by mid-century to keep global warming limited to a rise of 2 degrees Celsius.
McKibben says energy companies now have five times that amount in their reserves…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-01/presidential-showdown-evokes-last-call-for-climate-debate.html
OH NOES!!! What about all those shacks I built along Cape Cod for the nutty surfers,when a CAT5 hits?Mind you,who cares.They were built using a nice chunk of green cash from my Save the Beachs.
Berényi Péter says:
October 1, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Gunga Din says:
October 1, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Let’s see, what will the defense of Hansen and CAGW be?
[…]
4. ????
Easy. It is well known hurricanes leave a trail of cool sea surface behind. With extremely low ACE of late there is nothing to remove that heat from the oceans. So it can go nowhere but to the pipeline, just to come back later with a vengeance. It is certainly worse than we thought.
There, you have it.
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So the missing heat is clogging the pipe? 😎
Is that unnatural?
Stephen Rasey says:
October 1, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Now, wait a minute! Projecting the current Oct 1 data flat through the rest of the year is just not being objective!
———————
That would depend on what the objective is, is?
Did I just quote Bill Clinton?
cn
rgb,
Great post as usual. However let us be cautious with the claim about major Hurricanes. I believe that if Hurricane Ike had hit before the satellite era it would have been considered a major Hurricane. There would not have been the games NHC plays with storms now a days. Ike had a pressure of 950 mb. Damage was consistent with a major Hurricane.
Furthermore, who is to say our records from the 1800 and early 1900’s are accurate? Researching past recorded major hits there was one in 1860 along the gulf coast, then not another until the 1869 Hurricane in New England (and that is considered a Cat 2 by some sources). The major Hurricane “drought” along the US coast is bad science and would be in our best interests to leave that stat alone. Luckily most of the alarmists are ignorant of past weather events or this statistic would have been shouted down long ago.
Our grandchildren won’t even know what hurricanes are, and they won’t have wifi access to google it.
this is the way to get the MSM interested:
1 Oct: Nature: Amanda Mascarelli: Earth’s carbon sink downsized
Abundance of soil nutrients a limiting factor in plants’ ability to soak up carbon dioxide
But the latest study, by ecologists Peter Reich and Sarah Hobbie at the University of Minnesota in St Paul, suggests that estimates of how much CO2 land plants can use are far too optimistic…
“Rather than building a time machine and comparing how ecosystems behave in 2070 — which is hard to do — we basically create the atmosphere of 2070 above our plots,” says Reich…
1.Reich, P. B. & Hobbie, S. E. Nature Climate Change advance online publication, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1694 (2012).
http://www.nature.com/news/earth-s-carbon-sink-downsized-1.11503
1 Oct: Scientific American: Amanda Mascarelli: Plants’ Carbon-Sinking Capacity Is Much Lower Than Thought
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=plants-carbon-sinking-capacity-is-much-lower-than-thought
rgbatduke :
I’ve mentioned many times that everything to do with climate is about “differences”.
These are differences in temperature, pressure, concentrations, solubility etc etc etc.
If the temperature difference between Artic and tropics is reduced, there must, on average, be lest “difference” to drive climate systems… unless some other difference occurs.
And a small change in concentration of a beneficial trace gas, is NOT a driver of climate.
Are my eyes deceiving me or have major hurricanes been trending down during the “hottest decade on the record”?
Anyway, this is what I understand happens with global warming. Less extreme weather.
WARMISTS commence your sermon for the day!
You have pointed out what many on WUWT have said before. The question is why would these people who know full well that global warming should lead to less extreme hurricanes – lie? The answer is in your back right pocket. Is it still there?
Clearly the point of the continuation of the North Atlantic 2012 line is to show what would happen if no additional ACE were recorded. Consider this an addendum figure caption.
pat says:
October 1, 2012 at 3:23 pm
The post-election campaign builds off an article by McKibben, published in Rolling Stone, that uses math to explain why the world must now transition to green energy. The crux of his argument is that countries can only burn 565 more gigatons of carbon by mid-century to keep global warming limited to a rise of 2 degrees Celsius.
McKibben says energy companies now have five times that amount in their reserves…
============
The solution is simple. Pass a law outlawing the use of carbon based energy. It worked for drugs and alcohol. It is sure to work for energy.
Oh, better yet. Outlaw the use of carbon based energy in OTHER countries, while keeping it perfectly legal at home. This will solve global warming and extend the reserves for centuries to come. Anyone else uses fossil fuels, nuke them back to the stone age to save the world.
It would certainly solve the unemployment problem.
davidmhoffer says:
October 1, 2012 at 3:03 pm
rgbatduke
THANKYOU!
I think making that point on a warmist blog was the first time I got one of my comments “disappeared”.
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Agreed, it would make a great post. You might as well try and rape the pope as raise this issue at RC. The only “facts” permitted are those consistent with AGW as a the greatest threat humans have ever faced, and thus worthy of the greatest funding humans have ever received.
Jimbo says:
October 1, 2012 at 5:44 pm
“The answer is in your back right pocket. Is it still there?”
I believe you mean money and/or a wallet but this image carries poorly in a modern age.
All the gold in California
Is in a bank in the middle of Beverly Hills
in somebody else’s name
[Larry Gatlin, 1979]
Seriously – 1: You have neglected more than half of the human race:
http://www.dailytravelphotos.com/images/2010/101212_mongolia_traditional_young_girl_wild_cute.jpg
Seriously – 2: It’s a pain —
http://chirocentre.co.uk/wallet-sciatica-hip-pocket-syndrome-lower-back-pain/
I remember the 50’s as very active as TSs and Hurricanes:
http://www.stormpulse.com/storm-archive/by-decade/1950-1960
I was very aware of hurricanes and tornadoes then.
“Seriously – 2: It’s a pain –
http://chirocentre.co.uk/wallet-sciatica-hip-pocket-syndrome-lower-back-pain/”
Yep chiropractors are a good way of thinning the wallet…. purely to ease back pain, of course. 😉
I am really sick of this unscientific idea of fitting a linear trend to a chaotic system. It is easy to say “the trend is” but this implies proposing that fitting a linear model nay actually mean something, which of course it does not.
Before you fit a linear model you need to say what that model represents and why it is meaningful.
Now hats off to Ryan for the data , it looks truly important and useful but the linear fit is just more cargo-cult science. You can show whatever your church requires of you by appropriate choice of end points.
What can be said about this data without linear fits is that is was generally rising before 1994 and has been sinking ever since. That seems to have been a turning point in recent climate.
http://i46.tinypic.com/r7uets.png
http://i49.tinypic.com/xudsy.png
i50.tinypic.com/2s12an6.png
@ferdberple:
The use of nuclear weapons is an excellent suggestion!
Conventional weapons should be phased out and replaced with the use of nuclear weapons! First of all, the use of nuclear weapons is more or less CO2-neutral. And secondly it is much more efficient than killing the unruly locals one by one (or wedding by wedding, funeral by funeral) with drones and bombs. And lastly didn’t I hear something about cooling effects of nuclear weapons?
I for one am really missing the last ice age, hunting wooly mammoths in a sparsely populated world – I am sick and tired of living in a warm house with all those evil technology! Get rid of it all, use nukes!
And now I understand why the warmists have such an desperate urge to save the polar bears: We need something to hunt when the ice age comes!
http://i48.tinypic.com/29ni90i.png
Plotting ACE against AMO shows a very strong correlation, not surprisingly since it is heat energy from the ocean that drives the storms.
Adding a one year lag to the ACE plot aligns the peaks beautifully.
Now some caution is needed since AMO is a _detrended_ index that removes a long term rise.
However, it is clear that much of the increase in storm energy is due to known long term climate variation. Any multi-century scale warming would presumably add an underlying increase.
Attempts to link this AGW or recent “weird climate” is yet another case of taking the rising part of long term, natural climate variation and making spurious, short term correlations.
davidmhoffer says:
“rgbatdukeTHANKYOU!
I think making that point on a warmist blog was the first time I got one of my comments “disappeared”. I raised that point repeatedly for years, but gave up trying to get broad attention to it.”
But you have to understand: It really detracts from the warmist picture, if you start pulling their pidgin-theories apart, now does it?
I recently had the pleasant experience of being called an idiot, because some (non-climate) physicists posted pictures of an trip to an glacier, which the post boiling down to “See!!! We are melting the glaciers with CO2!!!” I posted comments trying to show that it is anything but this clear cut, that glaciers had been melting for some time before CO2 emissions, and that glaciers aren’t the best proxy for CAGW (well, all proxies seem to be bad examples for CAGW, but I didn’t make that the main point of my comment). Best of all, after I posted examples of glaciers that have been warming for much longer, I got accused of cherry picking – not the physicists who posted one (!) image of an receding glacier, that he visited. Oh, the irony.
I would really like to venture into AGW land, so not to stay in a skeptic opinion-ghetto, and to challenge the skeptic position from time to time – but it so incredibly awful there in CAGW land. Either they try to hit you over the head Gore/AIT-style, or they try to shout you down. It is as if they want to enforce the skeptics in their opinion.
Found some longer term ACE data provided by Landsea: (ref on graph)
http://i47.tinypic.com/21cgn55.png
Storm recording was obviously much more sparodic in mid 19th c. The war time dip also suggests data collection and archiving may have been disrupted.
It seems the cyclic component is far larger than any upward drift. Current AMO peak is slightly larger than previous two. Maybe there’s some scope for a small long term rise in that difference, though it would certainly be smaller that any statistical uncertainty in the data.
PS. The one year lag seems clear enough to be used as a warning indicator. This years AMO determines next years storms?